Complete rundown of army sizes and losses throughout the books (long)

[Chaircat Meow]

The decision to try and surprise Tywin at the Green Fork via the night march was not Roose's but Robb's.

[Nyrhex]

Let's work backwards, Roose losses 1/3rd of his army at the "battle" of the Ruby Ford. He had 4,100 northmen after, 3,500 he takes to the Twins, and another 600 he leaves behind to "guard" the ford. That means he had ~6,000 men prior to the battle, give or take a few hundred. He losses another <3,000 at Duskendale (remember some of the Karstarks must have got back to him), giving him ~8,500 northmen before the battle of Duskendale, add 1,500 Freys and you end up with 10,000.

It's a few hundred less that Roose should have had probably, but the margins of error for every westeros related number would usually be 500+, so this figure is fine.

Whatever Roose had to loose on the Green Fork to get to 10,000 is what he lost. I know you believe Robb marched down the neck with 18,000, not 19,500, in which case you believe Roose had ~16,200 men on the Green Fork, not ~17,700, either way the most likely figure is ~10,000 northmen still alive and with Roose's army after the battle.

We are told in (IIRC) Cersei's PoV in AFFC that Hosteen and Aenys had 2,000, it might be out by a bit but I would definitely put it closer to 2,000 than 1,500.

6,150 if exactly two thirds made it to the north bank.

3,000 men at Duskendale. None of the ones to survive link back up to him. The remnants of that host have not yet linked with Roose, by his own wording, and there is another thing:

“But to sell you he must keep you, and the riverlands are full of those who would gladly steal you away. Glover and Tallhart were broken at Duskendale, but remnants of their host are still abroad, with the Mountain slaughtering the stragglers. A thousand Karstarks prowl the lands south and east of Riverrun, hunting you. Elsewhere are Darry men left lordless and lawless, packs of four-footed wolves, and the lightning lord’s outlaw bands. Dondarrion would gladly hang you and the goat together from the same tree.”

Despite clearly stating earlier that:

Bolton gave a soft chuckle. “Harrion Karstark was captive here when we took the castle, did you know? I gave him all the Karhold men still with me and sent him off with Glover. I do hope nothing ill befell him at Duskendale . . . else Alys Karstark would be all that remains of Lord Rickard’s progeny.”

I can only assume that the other ~1,000 Karstark men in the Riverlands are the 200-300 horse with Robb, and another 700-800 from the 700-800+X Karstarks at Castle Darry who were not ordered to march on Duskendale (the order is for Glover and Tallhart). Harrion had the Karstarks at Harrenhal and marched to link up with Glover and Tallhart on the way to Duskendale, and the men returning from Darry have mostly broke off to search for Jaime, or returned to Roose. This is pretty all over the place because we don't know how many Karstarks died on the Green Fork (they were fighting Gregor and were smashed), there are still 700-800 of their foot searching for Jaime as some of them are attacking Duskendale and some are still with Roose in enough numbers to justify Roose mentioning them. Considering that they had started from 2,000 foot, the portion with Roose on the march to the Twins, the portion with Harrion at Duskendale, and the portion that was slain on the Green Fork are 1,200-1,300 combined. Let's say Roose still has X=200 or X=300 to justify mentioning them to Robb at the Twins? Another ~1,000 men between Harrion's men at Duskendale and the Karhold men to die on the Green Fork. If ~500 died on the Green Fork (their lines were smashed by Gregor), Harrion had ~500 at Duskendale, together with ~2,500 Glover and Tallhart men.

9,150 men, plus Steelshanks and his 200 men took Jaime to KL. 9,350. About 1,000 Karstarks are roaming the Riverlands, gives us ~10,400 - 10,000 men with Roose, and 400 garrison at the Twins. The Freys had 2,600 foot with Roose, 400 at the Twins. Of the <2,600 left after the Green Fork, about 1,000 foot are at Winterfell with 500 horse, the rest (~1,500 foot and ~500 horse) are at Riverrun.

How do you figure that? Caught between the walls of Rivverun in the back, the Northmen in the front and rivers on either flank would make scattering very difficult. I do believe most were killed.

Because even at a battle like Duskendale where we see ~2,000 men encirceled between Tarly, Gregor and the sea, we still hear of survivors breaking away. And that was a planned massacare by both sides.

At the Camps the battle was far less orderly, far less a closed area, and the description comes from a guy who should not be alive by the massive casualties logic.

North camp is attacked first, Blackfish takes care of the sentries and defenses, then main northern force attacks. The fighting takes time and the western camp has time to improvise rafts and try to cross. Current and stupidity ends that attempt with 4 rafts destroyed. No idea how many in each one, but not many. The guy to tell the story is watching all this from the Northenrn bank of the Western camp after making it back from the rafts. Northern camp has the west to flee to, and any one who manages to swim to the western camp and from there to the southern camp, the Northmen are more concerned with destroying the siege engines. If anything like the Western camp, the Northmen split up and while one force deals with opposition the other half is destroying siege engines.

Western camp is attacked, Robb leads his men and is stopped by a spearwall. Blackwood attacks from the rear and they break. Siege engines are attacked, the witness manages to work his way south through Robb's force and Blackwood's. Robb's force is laying waste to the camp, Greatjon is destroying the siege engines, Blackwood releases the prisoners.

Witness has time to talk to others who survived the spearwall as they make thier way south to the southern camp, which is already abandoned by Prester. Survivors can go west, or south and then west. The witness talks to others from different positions, survivors from the northern camp who saw the Blackfish, survivors from the spearwall in the Western camp to see Robb and Grey Wind killing men at the spearwall, guys who saw the Greatjon burning siege engines, guys who saw Blackwood searching for Edmure, he knows where Prester and his men went, saw the sellswords switching sides. The guy has spoken to many guys in different places, after the battle. They likely make their way west, with some becoming "broken men"/outlaws, whatever. Definatly not Duskendale and Ruby Ford level destruction, which themselves leave ~20-30% scattered even though were planned for massive casualties. The guy then breaks off from those as they are mainly afoot, grabs a horse and makes a dash to Harrenhal.

The Battle of the Camps was not a massacare, and it is described as a host "scattered" never as destroyed. With a third of the host starting as safe and retreating in good order, the 8,000 men from the other two camps should leave ~1,600-2,400 alive and trying to make it west if it was a Duskendale level destruction (which it was not), and closer to 4-5k at the least seems more reasonable. 3-4k lost or turned brigand at the Battle of the Camps. Unlike Gregor, Robb is never described as searching for survivors to slaughter well after the battle.

[Ramsay's Penguins]

Terrific!

Regarding Freys. The lords of the Green Fork wouldn't have contributed much to the riverlands. They are never mentioned as fighting or being attacked, but we know they are there. Nor would they really have time to reach the Fords or Riverrun. I speculate Vypern and Paege. Paege is a notable house (makes it into the appendices) while Vyperns have a place in history also. I think they might have attatched themselves as Frey men, as well as using peasants in their army (who do not really count).

If Stannis's numbers need to go up, then we can add on stormlords and crownlords who joined him on his march.

If his numbers need to go down. we can say that some Reach men abandoned him.

Due to the high numbers of horse in his army, the ships aren't useful for transporting them and I'd say the narrow sea lord ships are manned by narrow sea lord men, the Royal Fleet are empty to ferry men, the Myrish ships likewise and the Lyseni ships are reserve and rescue.

Tyrion has 800 sellswords and freeriders. 300 knights and men at arms (Stokeworth, Rosby, Harte, Lannister garrison), 5600~ goldcloaks minus Baelish's contingent and then sailors in the fleet, but not the soldiers to man the ships. Also archers, but I don't know where from, probably the 300 men at arms.

I also think Mace's 10k army was disbanded after Renly's death. For the 60k men at Bitterbridge to go down to 20k each for Mace at Storms End and Tarly (who also had Westermen and crownlords) then; 1. A significant part of the Bitterbridge host was stormlords (15'000?).

2. High losses at the Blackwater, which didn't happen for the Tyrells.

3. A large part of the army to stay in KL while they are away, which seemingly doesn't happen. Not a large army, since Mace feels like his armies presence is needed.

The 10k isn't necessary, doesn't add up, and why would Garlan need to raise an army when there is one in KL?

[Pod The Rod]

The decision to try and surprise Tywin at the Green Fork via the night march was not Roose's but Robb's.

Um, no. It was Roose's. Robb had no contact with his foot after he split the army and headed toward the WW.

[James Steller]

Um, no. It was Roose's. Robb had no contact with his foot after he split the army and headed toward the WW.

I always did wonder why Roose did what he did concerning the Green Fork. He's overmarched his men, they're outnumbered, and they're exhausted. What made him think they should go on the offensive? Why not dig in like Edmure did at the Fords and let Tywin try and assault a well defended camp?

[Chaircat Meow]

I always did wonder why Roose did what he did concerning the Green Fork. He's overmarched his men, they're outnumbered, and they're exhausted. What made him think they should go on the offensive? Why not dig in like Edmure did at the Fords and let Tywin try and assault a well defended camp?

Because Robb wanted a surprise attack. He had been advised, by the Greatjon, that it was the only way to beat Tywin's larger and better army.

[Nihlus]

The losses for Roose's host don't add up unless both him and Robb are the worst generals ever, given that they somehow managed to get a 20:1 casualty ratio in the other guy's favor despite even Jaime's Whispering Woods force having a far better showing than that. Why, exactly would that movement even be considered a success? Going from 18,000 men to 10,000 men is catastrophic, especially by medieval standards. Add in the men Robb lost against Jaime's host, accounting for the losses Jaime must have already taken earlier, and I'm pretty sure that would mean the trio of battles resulted in more North-Riverlands casualties than Westerlands ones. For Roose to lose that many men while Tywin only loses a few hundred just doesn't add up. Either Roose lost less, or Tywin lost more.

If that were the case, the whole Whispering Woods/Camps/Green Fork operation would be thought of as either a crippling loss or a pyrrhic victory, which doesn't seem to be the case. Speaking of which, I think you may have underestimated Tywin's losses at the fords. Also, didn't the Bloody Mummers partake in some low key garrison massacres, such as the deaths of 100 Westerlands men at Harrenhal? And weren't there 100 of the Mummers themselves, as specified by Jaime when he said Steelshanks' escort outnumbered them two to one? Finally, Jaime told Blackfish that he outnumbered him 20 to 1 while laying siege to Riverrun. Assuming that Blackfish had a 200 man garrison, as was stated, that'd mean Daven had 1,000 Westerlands men, because Jaime brought an extra thousand, and the Freys brought 2,000. Though that doesn't account for the various other Riverlands houses there. Perhaps those all just got grouped under "Frey".

[James Steller]

The losses for Roose's host don't add up unless both him and Robb are the worst generals ever, given that they somehow managed to get a 20:1 casualty ratio in the other guy's favor despite even Jaime's Whispering Woods force having a far better showing than that. Why, exactly would that movement even be considered a success? Going from 18,000 men to 10,000 men is catastrophic, especially by medieval standards. Add in the men Robb lost against Jaime's host, accounting for the losses Jaime must have already taken earlier, and I'm pretty sure that would mean the trio of battles resulted in more North-Riverlands casualties than Westerlands ones. For Roose to lose that many men while Tywin only loses a few hundred just doesn't add up. Either Roose lost less, or Tywin lost more.

I agree, the casualty reports of Green Fork don't make a lot of sense. But on the other hand, the Northmen were force-marched all night, and they presumably have far inferior quality weapons compared to the Westerland forces. I've done all nighters where by the end I could hardly function properly. Let alone if I was marching all night through a countryside I didn't know, with a weapon I never needed to use before in my life (unless I'd been old enough to fight the Greyjoys).

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

The decision to try and surprise Tywin at the Green Fork via the night march was not Roose's but Robb's.

No it wasn't, or if it was we are never told that. Indeed he picks Roose on his mother's rejection of the Greatjon as the infantry commander because Umber would be too bold, the implication being that if there is a battle between his infantry and Tywin (there doesn't have to be for Robb's strategy to work) then it will be a defensive battle.

If Robb had suggested a night march then one of his lords: be it one of the Glovers or Karstark or the Blackfish, would have called him out on it, even the Greatjon wouldn't suggest that a force that is entirely infantry should surprise attack an army like Tywin's. Indeed it is strange that Roose isn't called out on some of his actions by Robb or one of the lords sworn to him. But like Littlefinger and the dagger it gets ignored for the sake of the plot.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

I agree, the casualty reports of Green Fork don't make a lot of sense. But on the other hand, the Northmen were force-marched all night, and they presumably have far inferior quality weapons compared to the Westerland forces. I've done all nighters where by the end I could hardly function properly. Let alone if I was marching all night through a countryside I didn't know, with a weapon I never needed to use before in my life (unless I'd been old enough to fight the Greyjoys).

Not really, sure you might get a smaller proportion with mail/less plate, and of corse the west has more heavy cavalry, but when it comes to weapons a pike is a pike, a bow is a bow, and a halberd is a halberd, the northern weapons are no different to the weapons used by soldiers from any of the seven kingdoms. I doubt many of the weapons on either side will be brand new, particularly the heads of weapons, shafts probably need to be replaced every so often, but as long as the blades/points are sharp and rustless then age doesn't have that big a factor.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Stannis actually takes a lot of reach houses. House Florent, (red) Fossoway, Mullendore, Meadows, (Green) Fossoway, Varner, Willum and Crane are all named.

What I've speculated is he also leeched away some of those lesser bannermen of the bigger houses that still supported Mace, the Oakharts, Rowans and Tarleys.

Where did Vrwell get mentioned? I hadn't heard they were on the Stannis list (and would like to add them if that's correct).

You didn't mention Fossoway (Red and Green) and Willum.

I know, the guy I was responding to said it was only the Fossoways and the Florents, I corrected him. I forgot to mention Willum because I always thought that was the lord's first name, with his house unknown, I didn't realise that there was a house Willum in the Reach.

[Ramsay's Penguins]

Garrison size of Dragonstaone from the Dance was 30 knights, 100 crossbowmen and 300 me at arms.

Not sure what it means for Rolland Storm, but its a decent number.

[Chaircat Meow]

No it wasn't, or if it was we are never told that. Indeed he picks Roose on his mother's rejection of the Greatjon as the infantry commander because Umber would be too bold, the implication being that if there is a battle between his infantry and Tywin (there doesn't have to be for Robb's strategy to work) then it will be a defensive battle.

If Robb had suggested a night march then one of his lords: be it one of the Glovers or Karstark or the Blackfish, would have called him out on it, even the Greatjon wouldn't suggest that a force that is entirely infantry should surprise attack an army like Tywin's. Indeed it is strange that Roose isn't called out on some of his actions by Robb or one of the lords sworn to him. But like Littlefinger and the dagger it gets ignored for the sake of the plot.

It is implied, not stated outright. The Greatjon did want to surprise Tywin and Robb wanted him in charge of the foot for that reason. He swapped him out on grounds of incaution but doesn't seem to have altered his intended orders. If Roose really lost 8,000 men (although I'm one who thinks 18,000 included the Manderlys) he would have been chewed out unless the whole thing was Robb's own fault.

[Mithras]

Overall the Red Wedding is 3,500 loyalists vs ≥6,400 perpetrators, with all of the loyalists being killed or captured, and ~50 Frey men and presumably a similar number of Bolton men lost.

Arya and Hound came across a survivor of the Red Wedding, one of Marq Piper's bowmen. They also saw a lot of Frey hunting parties to hunt down the survivors. It is clear that not all the loyalists were slain during the Red Wedding and some of them might be still alive across the ranks of BwB. We know that Stannis got a lot of survivors of the Battle at Winterfell.

[Mithras]

I also think that we should take the maths of Theon with a grain of salt, especially after the Reekification.

[Ran]

The Ramsay-at-Moat-Cailin figure strikes me as far outside of keeping with the facts later, which you note yourself: 6,000 men with Ramsay and 6,000 with Roose just don't fit what's at Winterfell, and there's no reason to think that the miscellany he got augmented him _that_ far). 3,000, +/- 1,000, seems a more reasonable figure. And then bearing in mind that Roose's company included a large portion of injured who would then be dismissed once in the North...

As to the Green Fork, GRRM absolutely says it was Roose's idea. See here. Also bear in mind that Robb picks Roose because, as Catelyn advises him, he should want a cautious man in command of that force, and that's Roose...

But Roose then doing something very incautious was one of George's very first hints that Roose Bolton was up to no good. As you can read between the lines, Roose would either be a hero... or he would wipe out a significant portion of rivals for influence in the North while still looking like he was doing his duty. The fact that very few Bolton men died in the course of the entire war is, suffice it to say, no coincidence.

[Chaircat Meow]

The Ramsay-at-Moat-Cailin figure strikes me as far outside of keeping with the facts later, which you note yourself: 6,000 men with Ramsay and 6,000 with Roose just don't fit what's at Winterfell, and there's no reason to think that the miscellany he got augmented him _that_ far). 3,000, +/- 1,000, seems a more reasonable figure. And then bearing in mind that Roose's company included a large portion of injured who would then be dismissed once in the North...

As to the Green Fork, GRRM absolutely says it was Roose's idea. See here. Also bear in mind that Robb picks Roose because, as Catelyn advises him, he should want a cautious man in command of that force, and that's Roose...

But Roose then doing something very incautious was one of George's very first hints that Roose Bolton was up to no good. As you can read between the lines, Roose would either be a hero... or he would wipe out a significant portion of rivals for influence in the North while still looking like he was doing his duty. The fact that very few Bolton men died in the course of the entire war is, suffice it to say, no coincidence.

How could he look like he was doing his duty when he was doing the very thing he was picked not to do?

I'm not disputing the SSM. We know from the books Robb did hope his foot would smash Lord Tywin and he originally wanted the Greatjon in command. It is perfectly plausible he agreed to swap him out for Roose but did not change his intent of having the foot army try to secure a victory through surprise.

[Ramsay's Penguins]

For Ramsay's army;

600 (maybe 400 after the battle of Winters Town, since Theon says Ramsay was 1:5 to Rodrik, or it could have been 400 horsemen who actually fought and 200 infantry not).

Apparently 400 Umbers. This is a rumour from a White Harbour sailor. I don't think it'd be wrong, because there is no point to that, but it could be.

Cerwyn and Hornwood men were also present (Ramsay is lord of Hornwood, but there is no Hornwood to lead them). These could be men that survived the battle and joined Ramsay. I doubt no more then 200, since Jonelle is the only Cerwyn left, and she can't keep fielding more and more men.

So 1200~.

Then Roose has his 4000 Karstarks, Boltons and assorted others. Personally I think these numbers would be not very injured, if they are mostly Bolton men. They hardly battle anyone. 2000 Freys, and then 300 Manderly's. Then maybe 300 for the escorts of other lords. Which is 7800.

Plus then, Ryswells and Dustins from Barrowtown, who burnt a dozen ships of the Iron Fleet. We don't know how many. 2000 at Winterfell maybe. Some might have joined with the Manderly army.

Anyway, it is a number around 10'000.

[Ran]

Because he led the army into battle, he was doing his duty.

Again, GRRM makes it plain that it's Roose who decided the tactics. He doesn't refer to Robb.

[Chaircat Meow]

Because he led the army into battle, he was doing his duty.

Again, GRRM makes it plain that it's Roose who decided the tactics. He doesn't refer to Robb.

So what were Robb's orders, in your view? We already know the northerners thought surprise was the only way they could win against Tywin, and that was before they split their army. Don't you think if the commander Robb chose for being cautious proceeded to do something very incautious and, according to these figures, lost a large portion of the army, someone (like Robb) would have mentioned it, or been angry.