Girl in Grey Prophesy.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Just curious; how would Mel know that the girl is fleeing a marriage; all she saw was a girl in grey on a dying horse and a lake. Granted it's logical to assume that she's running away from something, but why a marriage? Did she hear the girl say something, did she see something else in her fires that suggested a wedding? Or did she just assume marriage since that was the logical choice if she thinks that she saw Jon's sister.

What else would a noble girl be fleeing, off on her own like that, in the middle of a war? Most noble girls stay home until they are evacuated, in which case they're not traveling by themselves. And she had to be a nobleborn girl or Mel never would have thought it was Jon's sister.

[Harry the Hair]

What else would a noble girl be fleeing, off on her own like that, in the middle of a war?

A siege, a plague, abusive relatives, lots of things come to mind.

[kiasyd]

Just curious; how would Mel know that the girl is fleeing a marriage; all she saw was a girl in grey on a dying horse and a lake. Granted it's logical to assume that she's running away from something, but why a marriage? Did she hear the girl say something, did she see something else in her fires that suggested a wedding? Or did she just assume marriage since that was the logical choice if she thinks that she saw Jon's sister.

She knows by doing what she always does: Se assumes, and thus is often mistaken in her interpretation.

[ChillyPolly]

Just curious; how would Mel know that the girl is fleeing a marriage; all she saw was a girl in grey on a dying horse and a lake.

The answer, presumably, is that your assumption may be incorrect and that is not all she saw.

As Mel explains it, a priestess reads the flames the way a reader reads a book, written in a foreign language. Presumably, images then form in her mind by way of interpretation, just as images form in our minds when we read.

[Clegane'sPup]

Just curious; how would Mel know that the girl is fleeing a marriage; all she saw was a girl in grey on a dying horse and a lake. Granted it's logical to assume that she's running away from something, but why a marriage? Did she hear the girl say something, did she see something else in her fires that suggested a wedding? Or did she just assume marriage since that was the logical choice if she thinks that she saw Jon's sister.

I have absolutely zero idea how Melisandre knows what she saw.

[Harry the Hair]

The answer, presumably, is that your assumption may be incorrect and that is not all she saw.

As Mel explains it, a priestess reads the flames the way a reader reads a book, written in a foreign language. Presumably, images then form in her mind by way of interpretation, just as images form in our minds when we read.

I don't recall her mentioning anything else, though it's possible that she thought the information was irrelevant especially since she thinks that her vision has come to pass.

[Harry the Hair]

I have absolutely zero idea how Melisandre knows what she saw.

I don't think even Melisadre knows what she sees.

[ChillyPolly]

I don't recall her mentioning anything else, though it's possible that she thought the information was irrelevant especially since she thinks that her vision has come to pass.

Well, like you said, she mentioned that the girl in grey was fleeing a marriage they had made for her. All I am suggestion is that Rh'llor, and the flames, are capable of communicating in ideas and abstract concepts, as well as concrete images. Note that she also hears sounds in her "visions", including words.

[Modesty Lannister]

Who is Greyscale being forced to marry?

Shireen is not likely to be the girl in this scenario and hers isn't the kind of greyscale that's going to bring the plague. That's JonCon and while he's many things, I don't think he could be mistaken for a grey girl.

Besides, we already have a prophecy for greyscale. The corpse on the prow of the ship and grey lips, smiling sadly. That's Jon Connington, bringing the grey plague to Westeros. He finally gets home, to set Rhaegar's boy on the throne, and he brings death with him. Thus the smile and also the sadness.

How can Mel see that she is fleeing a marriage? She just sees a girl on a horse fleeing. And she is notoriously bad in reading her flames. The flames are not a CCTV. The visions should not be interpreted literally. If they are, then we get haste reactions like Jon's.

[ChillyPolly]

How can Mel see that she is fleeing a marriage?

You are too focused on the word "see". Mel makes it pretty clear that visions are not that narrow. How did she "see" the words "Melony, Lot seven"?

[Modesty Lannister]

You are too focused on the word "see". Mel makes it pretty clear that visions are not that narrow. How did she "see" the words "Melony, Lot seven"?

What she saw is a clear allegory of greyscale, along with the description of infested lake that can be also interpreted as infected skin surface. Also, dead bodies in Hardhome are confirming what she sees. You can spin whatever you want. This is actually happening. And Shireen is on the Wall as well and her character has a part to play. And it is about to. She is the carrier of the disease.

[Harry the Hair]

And Shireen is on the Wall as well and her character has a part to play.

A Smeagol reference here? :P

In all seriousness Val did say that "the child is unclean" and should her Greyscale awake, the wall would most likely fall then.

[ChillyPolly]

What she saw is a clear allegory of greyscale, along with the description of infested lake that can be also interpreted as infected skin surface. Also, dead bodies in Hardhome are confirming what she sees. You can spin whatever you want. This is actually happening. And Shireen is on the Wall as well and her character has a part to play. And it is about to. She is the carrier of the disease.

Well, that's certainly a theory. I just don't see it as clear.

[Blind Beth the Cat Lady]

Just curious; how would Mel know that the girl is fleeing a marriage; all she saw was a girl in grey on a dying horse and a lake. Granted it's logical to assume that she's running away from something, but why a marriage? Did she hear the girl say something, did she see something else in her fires that suggested a wedding? Or did she just assume marriage since that was the logical choice if she thinks that she saw Jon's sister.

I've actually somewhat revised my previous opinion.

Reading the chapter from Mel's own POV, she thinks to herself that she knows the girl is coming to Jon for protection. It actually seems that she reasoned out it being his sister AND the wedding thing. I believe she actually did hear about the letter before speaking to Jon about it--there's just enough time, given how fast gossip flies around Castle Black. It seems Mel gets non-visual info from her visions, such as impressions of intent.

[Modesty Lannister]

A Smeagol reference here? :P

In all seriousness Val did say that "the child is unclean" and should her Greyscale awake, the wall would most likely fall then.

I'm not sure the Wall can fall because of greyscale, but greyscale has been brought to Westeros by Jon Connington, Shireen has it and Val's comments are not accidental. They are Chekhov's gun. GRRM never places a character somewhere without a reason and we get this allegory in the flames while the bodies in the water (almost identical description was given by Tyrion when sailing down the Rhoyne) have appeared in Hardhome. So, this can be seen as the beginning of invasion from the sea prophesied by Patchface. So, while everyone expects the Others to attack the Wall, the danger is coming from a completely unexpected direction.

[ChillyPolly]

Tyrion the whoremonger is the real grey-plague spreader. He's probably immune himself, the bastard.

[Modesty Lannister]

Tyrion the whoremonger is the real grey-plague spreader. He's probably immune himself, the bastard.

That is a topic of different threads. This thread is dealing with the vision in the flames. As I said, it shouldn't be seen as a CCTV broadcast from parts of the north.

[Harry the Hair]

I'm not sure the Wall can fall because of greyscale

Well if most of the NW contracts it then the fun stops here. Plus once they die they come back, so it's possible that the wall would simply be overrun by dead NW men. The Others wouldn't even have to cross then, the dead rangers will just appear on the other side of the wall and head south.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

How can Mel see that she is fleeing a marriage? She just sees a girl on a horse fleeing. And she is notoriously bad in reading her flames. The flames are not a CCTV. The visions should not be interpreted literally. If they are, then we get haste reactions like Jon's.

Until we get the reason why she thought a marriage was involved, we should consider the possibility that there was more to it than just what she told Jon. It could be she saw a girl in gray fighting with someone, and something that signified marriage and just didn't mention the details to Jon.

What we really need here is for Moqorro to interpret this for us. He seems to know what's up in the flames.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

OK so I'm re reading the relevant chapters to get an idea of why Mel thinks it is Jon's sister in the vision.

Jon's thoughts upon meeting Alys:

She looked enough like Arya to give him pause, but only for a moment. A tall, skinny, coltish girl, all legs and elbows, her brown hair was woven in a thick braid and bound about with strips of leather. she had a long face, a pointy chin and small ears,

"She does look a bit like Arya Jon thought. Starved and skinny but her hair is the same colour, and her eyes. "

So we can ascertain that if Alys has the Stark look, Arya's look enough to give her own brother pause, and that he goes on to remark how much she does indeed look like Arya, just too old though. Then she looks enough like Jon for Mel to assume she is his sister.

These quotes from Mellisandre's POV chapter:

The girl. I must find the girl again, the grey girl on the dying horse. Jon Snow would expect that of her, and soon. It would not be enough to tell him the girl was fleeing. He would want more, he would want the when and where, and she did not have that for him. She had seen the girl only once. A girl as grey as ash, and even as I watched she crumbled and blew away.

and later when she is talking with Mance.

"How well do you know the north?"

"As well as any raider. Some parts more than others. There's a lot of North. Why?"

"The girl," she said. " A girl in grey on a dying horse. Jon Snow's sister" Who else could it be?

So Mel does not know it is Jon's sister at all, she has made an assumption, a guess based upon what the girl looks like she is, and given how much Alys does look like Jon's blood. I think it is likely it is her.

She knows the girl is fleeing, she see's the landscape quite well which she later describes to Mance, and it really does sound like the North. Also and I think this is important, IF Alys is not the girl in the vision, and looks wildly different to her (ie: the fool notion it is Dany.) then when Mel later meets Jon, and tells him that Alys must be the girl and she was mistaken that it was Arya because of how alike Alys looks to the Starks, then damn it I think she'd have noticed that Alys is nothing like Dany. She says she was wrong and the girl must have been Alys. IF the girl was clearly not Alys why would she admit her mistake, why would she not tell Jon that no, he is wrong this girl is not the one from her vision, the girl from her vision is blonde. or if the girl is Sansa that the girl is Auburn haired. The fact Mel agree's she was wrong tells us the girl either is Alys or is so similar looking that Mel thinks it was her.