Heresy 157

[JNR]

Uh-oh, Eira. I was thumbing through my World book just today, and saw something I'd never noticed before in this picture of Winterfell. It sort of looks like part of the winter town if you're not looking closely, but... well, I think you better check it out for yourself. It's right at Winterfell's gate:

http://i1377.photobucket.com/albums/ah61/thesnowfyrechorus/45913DD0-8629-4246-ABFA-F593E03E9480_zps486voliq.jpg~original

Devastating, incontrovertible evidence.

ETA: See if you can find anything that might confirm or deny the similar premise that there is secretly a giant living in Flea Bottom.

[Matthew.]

I wonder if that might not explain his disappearance and whether some kind soul might have suggested that he keep out of sight and keep the wolf girl under wraps while the traitors thus flushed out are dealt with and then come out to win the final battle and return a hero to Kings Landing to take the throne which is rightfully his, while of course Lord Tywin will be pleased to resume his duties as the Hand

More and more my feelings that there was a bit of musical cheers with babies going on.and a few people knew about it.

In response to both of these, something else to keep in mind is that Rhaegar was 17 when Viserys was born, and Viserys himself arrived after a long string of stillbirths, miscarriages, and sons failing to live for even a year.

I think this is potentially very important in the context of Rhaegar singing sad songs, songs of "love and doom," and his fascination with Summerhall. If Rhaegar had long harbored a desire to pull a Prince of Dragonflies and give up the responsibilities of nobility (not necessarily for love, just in general), Viserys proving to be a healthy heir may have finally given him that opportunity.

Perhaps, at some point, the plan shifted to deposing Aerys through great council, and placing a suitable regent (Tywin?) in charge until Viserys was of age. Rhaegar, at the time of his disappearance, may have been actively deluding himself - or had someone else deluding him - into believing that the realm was going to be just fine without him.

Edit: Even more interesting -- the rather serendipitous timing of Tywin's arrival at King's Landing, relative to the crown's loss on the Trident. Perhaps, had Rhaegar won, Tywin would instead be arriving to reclaim his duties as Hand, and to see Cersei betrothed to Viserys.

Edit 2: On second thought, I'm actually not sure how the timing there all worked out; I can't recall how long of a gap there was between the Trident and the Sack on King's Landing, and at what point in all of this Tywin would have begun mobilizing his forces.

[JNR]

Edit 2: On second thought, I'm actually not sure how the timing there all worked out; I can't recall how long of a gap there was between the Trident and the Sack on King's Landing, and at what point in all of this Tywin would have begun mobilizing his forces.

To answer the bold, 1-2 weeks, I believe. It derives from Rossart being Hand for a fortnight, so there's some wiggle room.

This means Tywin would have to have gotten his host in gear long before the Trident, for it to beat Ned to King's Landing. He just probably hadn't decided yet for which side it'd be fighting.

Since the host also seems to have come as a surprise to Aerys, I wonder how Tywin managed to conceal it. Kinda hard to sweep a host under the rug as it travels all the way across a continent.

The first answer that comes to mind is a Klingon cloaking device. This would also explain much about the Isle of Faces. (Perhaps there's some art in the World book that subtly reveals said cloaking device.)

ETA: Or if there's no such art, maybe there really is... and it's just cloaked.

[wolfmaid7]

In response to both of these, something else to keep in mind is that Rhaegar was 17 when Viserys was born, and Viserys himself arrived after a long string of stillbirths, miscarriages, and sons failing to live for even a year.

I think this is potentially very important in the context of Rhaegar singing sad songs, songs of "love and doom," and his fascination with Summerhall. If Rhaegar had long harbored a desire to pull a Prince of Dragonflies and give up the responsibilities of nobility (not necessarily for love, just in general), Viserys proving to be a healthy heir may have finally given him that opportunity.

Perhaps, at some point, the plan shifted to deposing Aerys through great council, and placing a suitable regent (Tywin?) in charge until Viserys was of age. Rhaegar, at the time of his disappearance, may have been actively deluding himself - or had someone else deluding him - into believing that the realm was going to be just fine without him.

Edit: Even more interesting -- the rather serendipitous timing of Tywin's arrival at King's Landing, relative to the crown's loss on the Trident. Perhaps, had Rhaegar won, Tywin would instead be arriving to reclaim his duties as Hand, and to see Cersei betrothed to Viserys.

Edit 2: On second thought, I'm actually not sure how the timing there all worked out; I can't recall how long of a gap there was between the Trident and the Sack on King's Landing, and at what point in all of this Tywin would have begun mobilizing his forces.

Or lets switch our perspective to Rheagar's he became what he became because of a prophecy .He no longer believed it applied to him anymore. He no longer needed to be this warrior. So if you were him what would be your next move given the state of affairs?

[wolfmaid7]

To answer the bold, 1-2 weeks, I believe. It derives from Rossart being Hand for a fortnight, so there's some wiggle room.

This means Tywin would have to have gotten his host in gear long before the Trident, for it to beat Ned to King's Landing. He just probably hadn't decided yet for which side it'd be fighting.

Since the host also seems to have come as a surprise to Aerys, I wonder how Tywin managed to conceal it. Kinda hard to sweep a host under the rug as it travels all the way across a continent.

The first answer that comes to mind is a Klingon cloaking device. This would also explain much about the Isle of Faces. (Perhaps there's some art in the World book that subtly reveals said cloaking device.)

ETA: Or if there's no such art, maybe there really is... and it's just cloaked.

You mean Romulan, you know the empire could never stay united long enough to come up with cloaking technology.

[JNR]

You mean Romulan, you know the empire could never stay united long enough to come up with cloaking technology.

I think it's possible I've just been outgeeked.

[Matthew.]

Or lets switch our perspective to Rheagar's he became what he became because of a prophecy .He no longer believed it applied to him anymore. He no longer needed to be this warrior. So if you were him what would be your next move given the state of affairs?

The logical move would be to start playing the political game, and prepare the realm for a transition away from Aerys, but given the regret he expresses to Jaime, I think what Rhaegar actually did was procrastinate, while his friends and some perhaps not-so-friendly shadow players tried to nudge him in one direction or another.

To answer the bold, 1-2 weeks, I believe. It derives from Rossart being Hand for a fortnight, so there's some wiggle room.

This means Tywin would have to have gotten his host in gear long before the Trident, for it to beat Ned to King's Landing. He just probably hadn't decided yet for which side it'd be fighting.

I agree that, at the least, he was prepared to move before the war had actually been decided.

I'm wondering whether there may have been a point during Rhaegar's disappearance where he went to Tywin, and perhaps proposed the plan of removing Aerys through great council, restoring Tywin to the position of Hand, and betrothing Cersei to either Viserys or Aegon as 'pay-off' for Tywin returning to his old job.

Tywin would have been Hand for most of Rhaegar's life, and seemed to be adept at the job, so it's fair to presume that he and Rhaegar had an existing relationship. For a reluctant ruler, the man he'd already witnessed competently running the realm might be the easy and natural choice as Hand; let Tywin carry the stress of running the realm, since he seems to enjoy and excel at it.

Tywin may have been awful to Tyrion, and completely ruthless when he perceived threats to his family, but I do often go back to this conversation he has with Joffrey, which I think is a fair summation of Tywin's philosophy:

"When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet. Elsewise no man will ever bend the knee to you. And any man who must say ‘I am the king’ is no true king at all. Aerys never understood that, but you will. When I’ve won your war for you, we will restore the king’s peace and the king’s justice."

For all his brutal pragmatism, he's not some sinister schemer like Littlefinger who's always looking to sow chaos for personal gain, he understands the obligations of rule.

[wolfmaid7]

I think it's possible I've just been outgeeked.

Busted as a Trekkie :devil:

The logical move would be to start playing the political game, and prepare the realm for a transition away from Aerys, but given the regret he expresses to Jaime, I think what Rhaegar actually did was procrastinate, while his friends and some perhaps not-so-friendly shadow players tried to nudge him in one direction or another.

I have to agree atlease for the time until he could set the realm on a right track,though i think he himself maynot have wanted to sit the throne himself.Just maybe set the realm on a different path fromAerys. It occurs to me too he may not have been one to particular with the games he would be forced to play of the games at all.

[superunknown5]

Small observation here.

"Woe to the usurper if we had been," said Ser Oswell... = CLEAR DEFIANCE

"Far away," Ser Gerold said, "or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells." = CLEAR DEFIANCE

"Our knees do not bend easily," said Ser Arthur Dayne. - Eddard, AGoT = MORE CONFLICTED OR SCARED THAN DEFIANT?

You know, in the past I've always read these three lines as defiant. And Whent and Hightower's clearly are. But what about Arthur?

Notice Dayne doesn't say "I WOULD NEVER BEND MY KNEE TO THE LIKES OF YOU SCUM!" He doesn't take the same angry tone the other two do.

He says, more or less, "It is not so easy for a KG to break a sworn vow and bend the knee to the men who usurped their king."

He's almost saying it sadly, like he's conflicted, like he WANTS to bend the knee but is deeply afraid to. I think he it's because he has a great affection for Ned that he wants to surrender so badly, but he can't becuase he can't bring himself to face the consequences of what would happen if he did. Though he ultimately sides with his white brothers, it seems as if he's on a completely different page from them emotionally.

(sorry if this post is lacking in balrog speculation, unfortunately I am one of those plebians who hasn't yet read LOTR :P)

[Eira Seren]

Sure. First, let's frame the debate with a little useful context.

No one doubts that there exists at least one Balrog in GRRMworld. That's rock-solid, unwritten canon that is 100% probable, as conclusively shown by Snowfyre Chorus yesterday. Anyone who argues otherwise can only be a fool, a troll, or new to the series.

Beyond that, we have

1. The Balrog-at-Winterfell camp (which is right-thinking, clever, and insightful) and

2. The Balrog-at-Hardhome camp (which is dubious, ill-informed, and sketchier than the protagonist of a-Ha's video to "Take on Me").

I think we can safely conclude the Balrog-at-Hardhome camp has no idea what it is talking about in thinking that whatever may or may not have happened at Hardhome... six hundred years ago... is in any way relevant to the world of the books at the time of the story.

The Balrog-at-Hardhome camp actually reminds me of Zoot at Castle Anthrax in that it is using a false beacon (of Hardhome going up in flames 600 years ago) to inspire hope in the minds of that misguided theory's followers. And like Zoot, the followers of that theory deserve neither attention nor praise, but only some sort of embarrassing punishment.

The wise, who accept the overwhelming evidence of a Balrog at Winterfell, can then debate whether the Balrog is in the crypts at all, in Lyanna's in particular, or deeper in the crypts.

I should also point out that all of Jon's dreams of the crypts make perfect sense if we imagine that his great fear in those dreams, as invariably reported, is due to the most fearful single entity in the shared world of GRRM/Tolkien (to wit, a Balrog).

The fact that it is a shared world should be obvious to all, and disputed by none... except maybe those utter fools in another place. By which I mean the UK House of Commons.

And, of course, there's also the fascinating new idea, had by me only this morning, that in addition to traditional Balrogs, made of fire and shadow, there might also be ice Balrogs, made of ice and shadow. While I admit the evidence for ice Balrogs is skimpy, it would nevertheless explain many mysteries, such as the series title, which definitely seems to be all about Balrogs one way or another.

Once this is accepted, we could then proceed from there to the intriguing possibility that Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar Targaryen, is in reality either a fire Balrog, an ice Balrog, or half of each (this would be my guess)... hence Rhaegar's remark about the song of ice and fire being Aegon's. We could then compare Young Griff's eye color to the expected eye color of various Balrogs to determine which sort he is.

Well, no-one with any common sense is debating the existence of the Balrog, nor that there are two camps. So in terms of critical labor, I’d say not much has gone into the above post.

I.

1. The Balrog-at-Winterfell camp (which is right-thinking, clever, and insightful)

This sort of self-congratulatory bias is just what one would expect from camp 1. See also

And, of course, there's also the fascinating new idea, had by me only this morning

.

Um, yes, by all means. . .

There are some fairly serious cracks in the theory, however, starting at the very beginning.

First, there’s the question of Lyanna’s tomb, it’s size, accoutrements and the disagreement among camp 1 as to whether or not the Balrog would be there, or farther down (where the Old Kings of Winter and the rest of the spirits dwelling there would have long since driven it mad with their constant griping, howling, and nagging about the crypts not being it’s place. There can be no wisdom without at least consulting the text.

Not to mention he’d have starved to death by now, what on earth would he eat down there? Rickon, Bran, Jojen, Meera and Hodor are very much alive, as are Theon, Barbery Dustin, and all of the other Starks who grew up playing hide and go seek in the crypts. They were not barbequed on entering. Please.

Second, aside from Snowfyre and Urrax (the only members of camp one to actually have taken a serious look at any textual evidence) there is the matter of the crown, which clearly doesn’t match the One Ring. I see that none of the textual basis provided in my previous discussions (either Hardhome or the crypt) has been seriously considered or addressed. Likely this is a failure of reading comprehension (or more likely, just reading at all).

II. Beyond the tenuous, camp one is notably sidestepping any real basis for any of the theories (including their own) and relying primarily on snide, sneering personal attacks. Any minute now, WeaselPie and myself will be called a troll. (And. . . Zoot? Seriously? I think one member of camp 1 doth protest too much). But no matter, my M.A. and advanced graduate coursework in English Lit have weathered lesser detractors. :fencing:

The obvious problem with Hardhome is the question of 600 years ago. (Which, again, lack of any real critical effort, as I practically handed that to camp 1 on a silver platter).

For this we have the established problem of timelines. Any history created by the Andals (who detested – and were fleeing – the Valyrians) is extremely suspect. The problem is much the same with the building of the Wall, the Nightfort, the time period of the Age of Heroes, and the Long Night (not to mention that warped list of Lord Commanders).

A good understanding of the Balrog’s reasons for choosing Hardhome will also be found in the Silmarillion, which notes on multiple occasions, including the Battle of Nirnaeth Arnoediad, that balrogs fought very closely with--in fact, often under the command--of dragons:

“. . . even as the vanguard of Maedhros came upon the Orcs, Morgoth loosed his last strength, and Angband was emptied. There came wolves, and wolfriders, and there came Balrogs, and dragons, and Glaumrung father of dragons. The strength and terror of the Great Worm were now great indeed, and Elves and Men withered before him. . . “ (192).

Now, you might be thinking that dragons and balrogs are unlikely allies, and you would be right. Because when things went pear-shaped in Valyria, it was down to some very bad juju between Glaumrung’s cousin, who had leadership of the Fourteen Flames, and our friend the Balrog. Note that because he’d served in the elite fleet, under Glaumrung, he was also privy to certain dangerous state secrets. And when Glaumrung comes after misunderstood Balrogs, he employs a fairly high level of "strength and terror."

Obviously, when he fled, the Balrog was intentionally seeking a place where he would be able to support himself independently (plentiful food and resources), without fear of discovery (easy to hunt down eyewitnesses in the tunnels and dispose properly) and with a water-escape route handy should the need arise.

Having already established the other evidence (burnt to a crisp) for Hardhome, I won’t rehash it, but will say that Hardhome, with it’s caves and tunnels is the perfect bugout location for a Balrog on the lam. In no way, shape, or form –neither flame, nor smoke—would he care to be detected in so public a place as Winterfell.

So at this point, frankly, it looks like camp 1’s got nothin’. And must ask: Beyond the tenuous, what evidence is available for Winterfell? Can you actually prove the presence of a Balrog, at all?

ETA: also, the idea of half of each is utterly preposterous. In what universe would any right-thinking female have sex with a Balrog?

ETA2:

Uh-oh, Eira. I was thumbing through my World book just today, and saw something I'd never noticed before in this picture of Winterfell. It sort of looks like part of the winter town if you're not looking closely, but... well, I think you better check it out for yourself. It's right at Winterfell's gate:

http://i1377.photobucket.com/albums/ah61/thesnowfyrechorus/45913DD0-8629-4246-ABFA-F593E03E9480_zps486voliq.jpg~original

Oh, sweet *%&#. Can't a guy go on one scouting mission without the damn papparazzi lurking about? Or bloody assassins?

ETA3:

The North is most certainly home to an ice balrog, more colloquially referred to as a Bewilderbeast. It is known.

https://www.howtotrainyourdragon.com/explore/dragons/valka-bewilderbeast

Huge cold climate deep dweller, icy breath, pale blue eyes..... I mean, come on, people. How much more proof do you need?

If, by some REMOTE chance there's an ice balrog, that would obviously the one that lives at Winterfell. Which is still totally unproven. Winterfell has not been scourged by any other forces other than the Boltons. And no one here (unless they're a troll) is daft enough to believe that Boltons are Balrogs.

ETA4:

snip!

ETA: See if you can find anything that might confirm or deny the similar premise that there is secretly a giant living in Flea Bottom.

:laugh: or. . . it's possibly a flea with a giant bottom.

[JNR]

In what universe would any right-thinking female have sex with a Balrog?

Maybe the same universe where

women lay with the Others in the Long Night to sire terrible half-human children

However, I think we may be approaching common ground.

The Winterfell Balrog, it seems clear, is an ice Balrog... whereas the Hardhome Balrog, assuming that against all common sense and reason there ever was a Balrog in Hardhome six hundred years ago and still is, is a fire Balrog.

Also: nice touch with the Comic Sans. I think that may be a first for Heresy.

And now a moment of silence for and a mental salute to Terry Pratchett.

"He'd be the sort to stand on a hilltop in a thunderstorm wearing wet copper armour and shouting 'All gods are bastards.'"

[Balerion06]

People keep bringing up that any father other than Rhaegar doesn't explain all the secrecy from Ned about Jon's parentage. Truth be told, I've always felt that Rhaegar himself doesn't adequately explain it.

In no way is Jon a threat to anybody. No one's going to buy the whole polygamous marriage loophole even if it was true. As Rhaegar's bastard, Jon doesn't have a claim to anything. And I have my doubts that Robert would have made any serious attempts on Jon's life, especially if his dear Ned took the tyke up North and raised him far away from all that courtly ambition.

From Ned's memories, Robert is clearly disturbed by the killing of Aegon and Rhaenys (the passage about how Bob had to turn away from the sight of their corpses). And in the end, he relented from even killing Dany, who was a very clear threat to his realm. For all his bluster about dragonspawn, Robert doesn't seem very comfy with ordering the deaths of children.

Ultimately, I think the much simpler reason for Ned claiming Jon as his own was to protect his sister's honour, especially if Jon was conceived illegitimately. It was done out of nothing more than his love for Lyanna.

And if you can accept that, then we don't have to insist that all the secrecy can only be explained by Rhaegar being Jon's father.

[King Tyrion XX]

So like I thought, nothing says it was ever an abandoned tower. That's simply become part of the narrative over the years, but it's not true.

Very good point. He's sad because of the men who died fighting, but there's nothing there about him being sad about Lyanna.

And as I've argued in the RLJ thread on the "price Ned paid to keep Lyanna's promise me's", well the common assumption is that he lost honour by claiming Jon as his son. But no one in the series cares that he has a bastard, so that can't be it.

But as we see with Lady Barbrey, his bannermen are resentful that he took his 6 to the TOJ and only he and Howland survived but he didn't even bother to bring their bones home after they'd spent the last year fighting for him. These were men who had survived the war and should have been going home to their families, but Ned took them on one last battle and got them killed. Their bones should have been brought home, and they shouldn't have been in such a fight in the first place.

And these weren't just regular bannermen, but they were his friends.

So Ned lost the support of at least the Dustins, and he got his friends killed when they should have been done fighting. That's a price paid that would haunt you, whereas the slight to his honour that having sired a bastard is supposed to bring, but which we don't see, wouldn't.

I think another thing to note, is that the TOJ was a WATCHtower. A watchtower serves no purpose, if it's not in the line of communication. It needs to be able to communicate with other places.

Yup. Now that we know any child there definitely wasn't king as Viserys was the heir, it makes even less sense. The KG had always been gone while the king (Aerys) lived. Them being at the TOJ because the king was there never made any sense when they'd been away from the king all along.

Amen. What would be the heretical version of amen?

[Matthew.]

In no way is Jon a threat to anybody. No one's going to buy the whole polygamous marriage loophole even if it was true. As Rhaegar's bastard, Jon doesn't have a claim to anything. And I have my doubts that Robert would have made any serious attempts on Jon's life, especially if his dear Ned took the tyke up North and raised him far away from all that courtly ambition.

Robert's not the only one that might hire an assassin, nor the only one with a stake in the regime change.

There's a difference between being a bastard and being base-born, as proven by the Blackfyre Rebellion, so Jon potentially being noble on both sides of his family would matter in the game of thrones, especially if his parentage were common knowledge from the very beginning.

This may not matter during Robert's reign, but what happens when Robert dies, rumors start spreading about Joffrey's illegitimacy, and the realm gets to have a taste of Joffrey's spiteful and incompetent rule? This greatly increases the risk that someone will either try to kill Jon, or slap a crown on him--if the Tyrells (among the losers of Robert's Rebellion) can sell Renly as a contender for the throne, then they can surely marry off Margaery to a son of Rhaegar and spin some BS to sell him as legitimate.

Edit: And, obviously, to people like Tywin, Littlefinger, and Varys he represents an undesirable variable. If there's even the slightest chance he could become a rallying point for malcontents and Targ loyalists, then that's a problem.

[King Tyrion XX]

I've made this point about 10 times and no one addresses it. "Far away, or Aerys would YET sit the Iron Throne"...ie, if the KG had been there they would have been forced to uphold the first duty and protect him. Removing themselves from Aerys' presence & immediate vicinity provides a loophole for the failure of the first duty.....they can't be expected to protect the king if they aren't physically there.

Either they were ordered to be far away and leave Aerys unprotected (save for Jaime, whose loyalty was dubious from the start), or they chose to go/stay far away of their own accord. Either way, it accomplishes the same goal of leaving Aerys wide open for assassination, and putting Jaime in the position of defending his king to the death.

Jaime threw the monkey wrench into the machinery by not graciously dying the way he was supposed to, although he did somewhat remedy the problem by killing Aerys anyway. It still left a Lannister alive and well, but hey, you can't have everything.

ETA: can we start talking about Balrogs again? The TOJ horse is dead and rotting, but Balrogs..... *heavy breathing*

I've seen you post this and I like it. It fits with and adds to the idea they weren't guarding a king at TOJ. They were guarding something they considered far more important.

Crackpot: The dragon we see when Winterfell is burning.

[MaesterSam]

There is no surety that Ned knew the three KG would be there. If Lyanna wasn't there, what the heck was he doing going to that abandoned tower, with just a few men? And why does he need to fight, at great risk to he and his men, why not just move on?

And if he did know, perhaps he thought they'd surrender - if R+L were not actually married, I don't, in Ned's place, see why they would fight there anyway - or perhaps he thought he would win (I very much doubt this is his train of thought). He did after all.

I can see a coherent narrative in the whole thing. Everyone involved doing the best, most sensible things they can according to the information they have. But I see very little coherence in any of the objections to it, just people complaining that this or that is stupid or foolish or illogical because their own narrative fails.

This question has bugged me for a long time. And while I don't think it proves RLJ, it does strongly support it. As much as I don't like it (lol), there had to be something in the tower that both Ned and the KG were willing to die for. And if we take Lyanna + baby out of the running, there aren't that many options left. Aegon doesn't work, b/c why would Ned risk his life, and his men's life, for a random Targ baby?

The problem with L + baby is that the KG's behavior seems weird. If the main goal was keeping them safe, they had no reason to fear Ned. And why would Rhaegar order them to defend her against her brother? And had they not noticed she was dying anyway? I know they were honorable and all, but why not let a dying woman see her brother, when the war is already lost?

Perhaps "Jon only" would work. If Lyanna died earlier (and somewhere else), and Ned promised her to find her baby. Maybe she even told him where he would be (as a side note, this conversation could be where he learned that Rhaegar named the TOJ). So Ned is there b/c he promised, with only a few trusted men (his six closest companions! Funny, that...) b/c this is not part of the official war effort, and not part of the glorious search for the missing queen-to-be, but his own secret quest to keep a promise. And the KG are there guarding ... yes, ok, in this scenario... Rhaegar's son. Who, to Rhaegar (who gave the order) is more important than Viserys b/c he is convinced his kids, not his brother, will be the 3 heads of the dragon. So this would make Jon important to Rhaegar (and therefore the KG) even if he is not the heir.

This works, for me, if the tower is well hidden, so that the KG could have assumed nobody would find them there, except Ned surprised them. Hmmm. I'll have to think on it some more.

I do like that it could also explain the price Ned paid to keep the promise. He had to kill Arthur Dayne, resulting in Ashara's suicide (whether she is really dead is irrelevant if he believes her to be). The woman he loved. The reason he refused to tell even his family about it was that he felt guilty and bitter, not b/c he was afraid Cat would tell Robert.

[Balerion06]

Robert's not the only one that might hire an assassin, nor the only one with a stake in the regime change.

There's a difference between being a bastard and being base-born, as proven by the Blackfyre Rebellion, so Jon potentially being noble on both sides of his family would matter in the game of thrones, especially if his parentage were common knowledge from the very beginning.

This may not matter during Robert's reign, but what happens when Robert dies, rumors start spreading about Joffrey's illegitimacy, and the realm gets to have a taste of Joffrey's spiteful and incompetent rule? This greatly increases the risk that someone will either try to kill Jon, or slap a crown on him--if the Tyrells (among the losers of Robert's Rebellion) can sell Renly as a contender for the throne, then they can surely marry off Margaery to a son of Rhaegar and spin some BS to sell him as legitimate.

Edit: And, obviously, to people like Tywin, Littlefinger, and Varys he represents an undesirable variable. If there's even the slightest chance he could become a rallying point for malcontents and Targ loyalists, then that's a problem.

Fair enough. But doesn't the same apply to Robert's bastards as well? Especially ones like Edric Storm, who's noble on both sides and about the same age as Joffrey.

And Targ loyalists still have the much more legitimate Viserys and Dany as rallying points anyway. Might as well stake a claim through them rather than some kid of dubious legitimacy who doesn't even look anything like the stereotypical Targ.

[Phillip Frye]

Amen. What would be the heretical version of amen?

Amen, amen, fiat, fiatur, ad differentiam papae.

[Phillip Frye]

What I have trouble understanding is why the three remaining Kingsguard members would risk their lives and vows against seven men if the true King were sitting in the watchtower behind them? Why not at least demand a duel: Stark v. Dayne? I mean, even the Smiling Knight got to fight the Sword of the Morning one-on-one. Their little asides about not bending their knees or fleeing only make sense if they are no longer guarding the King. Otherwise, they would seem to be betraying their vow by not heading back to Starfall with their infant monarch to get on a ship somewhere else.

Of course, some would answer that Lyanna is lying in the tower on her bloody bed, and the Kingsguard are stuck waiting for her to recover or die. However, I don't their vow has a Prince's mistress clause. Nothing prevents them from scooping up King Jon Targaryen and taking him back to Starfall and leaving a servant to look after/bury Lyanna. The vow would presumably place priority on protecting and preserving the King before protecting the mother of the King. Even if it were necessary for a guard to remain, one could stay while the other two left with the little monarch.

If Jon and Lyanna were in the tower, it seems more likely that Jon was Arthur Dayne's son than Rhaegar's. After all, then Dayne and the rest would have had a personal reason to hang about instead of acting to protect the monarchy.

ETA: I have not actually join the A+L=J camp. It just strikes me as unlikely that Lyanna was sitting the watchtower while the fighting commenced.

[Matthew.]

Fair enough. But doesn't the same apply to Robert's bastards as well? Especially ones like Edric Storm, who's noble on both sides and about the same age as Joffrey.

Yes, it does apply, which is precisely why Cersei sends the gold cloaks to start killing off Robert's known and suspected bastards.

It's not really about whether or not Jon (in a scenario where we're assuming RLJ is true) is the most likely rallying point for a rebellion, it's about whether or not even the merest possibility of rebellion exists. Now, Cersei is more paranoid than average, but I have to think even more pragmatic players could recognize the potential problems presented by a son of Rhaegar that has the blood of kings from both lines.