Heresy 157

[Eira Seren]

The Balrog was drawn to the power of the One Ring, which sat on the head of the Kings of Winter (see ETA in previous post), who lived at Winterfell. Not Hardhome.

Balrogs like to hang out deep down. Hardhome wouldn't suit them. Deeeeeeep in the crypts ( not up high with Lyanna), that's their kind of place. Ask Hodor, he knows.

Oh, the balrog does turn up here and there - though perhaps not at Winterfell (but who knows?). For instance, we have Dany's visions in the House of the Undying:

"From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire..." (2.48, DANY)

And of course, we have R'hllor, and his priestess Melisandre... Cressen thinks of Mel like this:

The red woman, the servants had named her, afraid to speak her name. "I will speak her name," Cressen told his stone hellhound. "Melisandre. Her." Melisandre of Asshai, sorceress, shadowbinder, and priestess to R’hllor, the Lord of Light, the Heart of Fire, the God of Flame and Shadow. Melisandre, whose madness must not be allowed to spread beyond Dragonstone. (2.00, Prologue)

"[stannis] has an ally," Lady Selys said. "R’hllor, the Lord of Light, the Heart of Fire, the God of Flame and Shadow." (2.00, Prologue)

And later, Mel's tutorial to Davos... "Introduction to Flame and Shadow 101:"

"A shadow is a thing of darkness."

"You are more ignorant than a child, ser knight. There are no shadows in the dark. Shadows are the servants of light, the children of fire. The brightest flame casts the darkest shadows." (2.42, DAVOS)

All rather Balroggish, if you ask me... :) And if you want something at Winterfell, maybe first we have to explain the thing Summer saw (or didn't see, depending):

The smoke and ash clouded his eyes, and in the sky he saw a great winged snake whose roar was a river of flame. He bared his teeth, but then the snake was gone. Behind the cliffs tall fires were eating up the stars. (2.69, BRAN)

Snowfyre has conclusively proven the presence of a Balrog beyond any possible doubt.

We also know that the Balrog is named R'hllor, and was flying over Winterfell in ACOK, which was previously predicted in the HOTU vision in the same book.

Also confirmed is that the Balrog did in fact have wings. Glad that's cleared up. It's been the equivalent of the ToJ dream among Tolkien freaks for decades.

No, gentlemen, I am sorry, not this time.

Snowfyre, you have, if anything, proven that a Balrog, in fact, exists. Very well and good.

However, it still doesn't convince me that it wasn't at Hardhome. The place is flattened and scorched. Even Urrax cannot fully agree and thinks it must be deeper in the crypts and not in Lyanna's tomb . . . so I don't Winterfell think is really all that likely. Something is still at Hardhome, "haunting" the place.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

While discussing Balrogs (or Baelrogs, as Eira cleverly put it), we should probably also consider the Kindly Man's story of the origins of the Faceless Men:

Men may whisper of the Faceless Men of Braavos, but we are older than the Secret City. Before the Titan rose, before the Unmasking of Uthero, before the Founding, we were. We have flowered in Braavos amongst these northern fogs, but we first took root in Valyria, amongst the wretched slaves who toiled in the deep mines beneath the Fourteen Flames that lit the Freehold's nights of old. Most mines are dank and chilly places, cut from cold dead stone, but the Fourteen Flames were living mountains with veins of molten rock and hearts of fire. So the mines of old Valyria were always hot, and they grew hotter as the shafts were driven deeper, ever deeper. The slaves toiled in an oven. The rocks around them were too hot to touch. The air stank of brimstone and would sear their lungs as they breathed it. The soles of their feet would burn and blister, even through the thickest sandals. Sometimes, when they broke through a wall in search of gold, they would find steam instead, or boiling water, or molten rock. Certain shafts were cut so low that the slaves could not stand upright, but had to crawl or bend. And there were wyrms in that red darkness too."

"Earthworms?" she asked, frowning.

"Firewyrms. Some say they are akin to dragons, for wyrms breathe fire too. Instead of soaring through the sky, they bore through stone and soil. If the old tales can be believed, there were wyrms amongst the Fourteen Flames even before the dragons came. The young ones are no larger than that skinny arm of yours, but they can grow to monstrous size and have no love for men."

"Did they kill the slaves?"

"Burnt and blackened corpses were oft found in shafts where the rocks were cracked or full of holes. Yet still the mines drove deeper. Slaves perished by the score, but their masters did not care. Red gold and yellow gold and silver were reckoned to be more precious than the lives of slaves, for slaves were cheap in the old Freehold. During war, the Valyrians took them by the thousands. In times of peace they bred them, though only the worst were sent down to die in the red darkness."

(4.22, ARYA)

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

No, gentlemen, I am sorry, not this time.

Snowfyre, you have, if anything, proven that a Balrog, in fact, exists. Very well and good.

However, it still doesn't convince me that it wasn't at Hardhome. The place is flattened and scorched. Even Urrax cannot fully agree and thinks it must be deeper in the crypts and not in Lyanna's tomb . . . so I don't Winterfell think is really all that likely. Something is still at Hardhome, "haunting" the place.

Alright. In light of the Kindly Man's story - if it seems likely that there were Balrogs in Valyria, then I'll concede that there might be, perhaps, a small Baelrog at Hardhome.

I do think, however... that it's worth considering whether we might yet see a Baelrog at Winterfell, before all is said and done. Yes I do.

[King Tyrion XX]

Actually, I've often seen the case made that a shortfall or delay in KG knowledge explains much.

For instance, why they didn't try to defend Aerys after Rhaegar died -- Aerys of course having been the very king the Kingsguard were sworn by their oath to guard.

And of course, a post made very soon after yours, here in Heresy, goes on to make a case that, in fact, the KG didn't know. Its premise is apparently that at the time Aerys made this decision to name Viserys his heir, prior to the Sack, that information would not have been newsworthy and would not have been sent out.

I didn't identify you, or anyone else in particular, or any group, or any thread; I said "many."

The concept that RLJ is rock-solid, unwritten canon is constantly reiterated and deeply embedded in forum culture, extending far beyond any one reader, thread, or group of readers. The same's true of the ASOIAF subreddit.

Despite the theory being so weak it can't fight it's way out of stale air.

[JNR]

However, it still doesn't convince me that it wasn't at Hardhome. The place is flattened and scorched. Even Urrax cannot fully agree and thinks it must be deeper in the crypts and not in Lyanna's tomb . . . so I don't Winterfell think is really all that likely. Something is still at Hardhome, "haunting" the place.

Possibly, but it is not the Balrog at Winterfell. Balrogs don't haunt; they scourge. That's why they have whips. You're probably thinking of ghosts -- an easy mistake to make. Ghosts haunt, and like Balrogs are supernatural entities, yet are not giant, winged, spawned by Morgoth, more bad-assed than dragons, and made of fire and shadow. They're pretty much just all about haunting.

I also cannot agree with the good Urrax in claiming the Balrog must be much "deeper" than Lyanna's tomb.

The problem with that idea is that as we know from the movie version FotR, Balrogs are extremely large and thus require huge chambers.

And we all know that Lyanna's crypt is the only chamber in the crypts large enough to contain them. This is because it had to be built on a colossal scale in order to contain Rhaegar's harp, moldy parchments, Howland Reed, a cache of dragon eggs, Lightbringer, the Horn of Joramun, and countless other items, people, buildings, small villages, Ulthos, etc., as repeatedly demonstrated in the forums to be located there.

And that's in addition, of course, to Lyanna's bones.

[Eira Seren]

While discussing Balrogs (or Baelrogs, as Eira cleverly put it), we should probably also consider the Kindly Man's story of the origins of the Faceless Men:

Men may whisper of the Faceless Men of Braavos, but we are older than the Secret City. Before the Titan rose, before the Unmasking of Uthero, before the Founding, we were. We have flowered in Braavos amongst these northern fogs, but we first took root in Valyria, amongst the wretched slaves who toiled in the deep mines beneath the Fourteen Flames that lit the Freehold's nights of old. Most mines are dank and chilly places, cut from cold dead stone, but the Fourteen Flames were living mountains with veins of molten rock and hearts of fire. So the mines of old Valyria were always hot, and they grew hotter as the shafts were driven deeper, ever deeper. The slaves toiled in an oven. The rocks around them were too hot to touch. The air stank of brimstone and would sear their lungs as they breathed it. The soles of their feet would burn and blister, even through the thickest sandals. Sometimes, when they broke through a wall in search of gold, they would find steam instead, or boiling water, or molten rock. Certain shafts were cut so low that the slaves could not stand upright, but had to crawl or bend. And there were wyrms in that red darkness too."

"Earthworms?" she asked, frowning.

"Firewyrms. Some say they are akin to dragons, for wyrms breathe fire too. Instead of soaring through the sky, they bore through stone and soil. If the old tales can be believed, there were wyrms amongst the Fourteen Flames even before the dragons came. The young ones are no larger than that skinny arm of yours, but they can grow to monstrous size and have no love for men."

"Did they kill the slaves?"

"Burnt and blackened corpses were oft found in shafts where the rocks were cracked or full of holes. Yet still the mines drove deeper. Slaves perished by the score, but their masters did not care. Red gold and yellow gold and silver were reckoned to be more precious than the lives of slaves, for slaves were cheap in the old Freehold. During war, the Valyrians took them by the thousands. In times of peace they bred them, though only the worst were sent down to die in the red darkness."

(4.22, ARYA)

:) Baelrogs, oh, good one. Autocorrect wins yet another round. IF anything, the Balrog initially started his career in the Fourteen Flames, that I can see.

Alright. In light of the Kindly Man's story - if it seems likely that there were Balrogs in Valyria, then I'll concede that there might be, perhaps, a small Baelrog at Hardhome.

I do think, however... that it's worth considering whether we might yet see a Baelrog at Winterfell, before all is said and done. Yes I do.

Now, granted, I do not have my novels with me and the laptop is about to die, and granted the wiki is extremely suspect, but we have this:

Hardhome sits on a sheltered bay and has natural harbour deep enough for the biggest ships afloat. Wood and stone are plentiful near there. The waters teem with fish, and there are colonies of seals and sea cows close at hand. A great cliff looms above the settlement, pocked with cave mouths.

Nowadays there is no shelter there for people but for the caves, dubbed the screaming caves by the men of the Night's Watch.

Don't know what Flame and Shadow get to eat when they aren't feasting on Gandalf, but it is pretty apparent that the Balrog (or as you prefer, Baelrog) is hiding out with an endless supply of food.

If he had flown out from beneath Winterfell, as some say a dragon may have done, then, like a dragon would, we'd see him snacking on barbeque on the battlefields in the Riverlands and similar. NO such sighting has occurred or been reported. (For either dragons or Balrogs).

Hardhome was close to becoming the only true town north of the Wall, until the night 600 years ago (about 300 years before Aegon's Landing) when hell had swallowed it.^[2]Something terrible happened that night; what exactly is uncertain. Its people are said to have been carried off into slavery by slavers from across the Narrow Sea or slaughtered for meat by cannibals out of Skagos, depending on the tale one chooses believe.

The homes of the inhabitants of Hardhome were said to have burned with flames so high and hot that the watchers on the Wall far to the south thought that the sun was rising in from the north. Afterwards, ashes rained down on the haunted forest and the Shivering Sea alike for almost half a year.

Traders and a ship sent by the Night's Watch to investigate reported only nightmarish devastation where Hardhome had stood, a landscape of charred trees and burned bones, waters choked with swollen corpses and blood-chilling shrieks echoing from the cave mouths that pock the great cliff that looms above the settlement, a cliff where no living man or woman could be found.^[3]

After that Hardhome was shunned. The wildlings never settled the site again, and rangers roaming north of the Wall told tales of the overgrown ruins of Hardhome being haunted by ghouls, demons, and burning ghosts with an unhealthy taste for blood.

It's pretty obvious that as soon as he'd razed Hardhome, the balrog was already exploring the caves, taking out the unsuspecting victims who sought to hide there. Now, the timeline is a bit funny, IMO, but I suggest that the Balrog left Valyria, probably did something to set the whole thing off, and has now settled in Hardhome. He's being more careful this time, as balrogs only get so many chances to get it right before getting kicked out of the neighborhood, and there just aren't that many good places left to go.

[Eira Seren]

Possibly, but it is not the Balrog at Winterfell. Balrogs don't haunt; they scourge. That's why they have whips. You're probably thinking of ghosts -- an easy mistake to make. Ghosts haunt, and like Balrogs are supernatural entities, yet are not giant, winged, spawned by Morgoth, more bad-assed than dragons, and made of fire and shadow. They're pretty much just all about haunting.

I also cannot agree with the good Urrax in claiming the Balrog must be much "deeper" than Lyanna's tomb.

The problem with that idea is that as we know from the movie version FotR, Balrogs are extremely large and thus require huge chambers.

And we all know that Lyanna's crypt is the only chamber in the crypts large enough to contain them. This is because it had to be built on a colossal scale in order to contain Rhaegar's harp, moldy parchments, Howland Reed, a cache of dragon eggs, Lightbringer, the Horn of Joramun, and countless other items, people, buildings, small villages, Ulthos, etc., as repeatedly demonstrated in the forums to be located there.

And that's in addition, of course, to Lyanna's bones.

No, just. . . No. Usually you are so reasonable. A Balrog would be bigger than a dragon, sure. Maybe about the size of three dragons, possibly, if they'd been raised in the dragonpit.

It only looks that big in LOTR because the Hobbits are so small, and Legolas so scrawny. Boromir might've been able to take him, if he hadn't had to keep people from falling off ledges and Frodo-sit (since Frodo didn't have the sense to run away very fast).

But Lyanna's tomb just isn't that big. It doesn't have a bunch of moldy crap in it, or harps, or anything else. In fact, I doubt Ned even brought her bones back and buried her in the North, he just wishes he had. He stuck up a statue out of contrition for not meeting that promise. So just a single-girl bed for her, none of this other nonsense.

As for the scourging, did you perhaps miss the part in my above post,

The homes of the inhabitants of Hardhome were said to have burned with flames so high and hot that the watchers on the Wall far to the south thought that the sun was rising in from the north. Afterwards, ashes rained down on the haunted forest and the Shivering Sea alike for almost half a year.

Traders and a ship sent by the Night's Watch to investigate reported only nightmarish devastation where Hardhome had stood, a landscape of charred trees and burned bones, waters choked with swollen corpses and blood-chilling shrieks echoing from the cave mouths

Also, with the description of "burning ghosts" I can see where you might have got confused between a balrog and a ghost, but again, this is down to semantics and is easily cleared up with a little understanding of the symbolism. Partly my fault, I talked about haunting. But it's obvious that a ghost isn't going to come along and eat seals, fish, people, and it isn't going to burn anything down. At that point, it's not a ghost, it's something else.

And since this fiery something else is not a dragon, nope, Hardhome is quite clearly the Balrog's new place of residence.

[WeaselPie]

Under the sea, smoke rises in bubbles, and flames burn green and blue and black. I know, I know, oh, oh, oh

[Eira Seren]

Under the sea, smoke rises in bubbles, and flames burn green and blue and black. I know, I know, oh, oh, oh

There's also nothing to say that a balrog can't survive under water, so I'd say this is well- spotted. I never connected it before to patchface but totally agree!

[King Tyrion XX]

Loving all this serious Baelrog talk :commie:

[WeaselPie]

There's also nothing to say that a balrog can't survive under water, so I'd say this is well- spotted. I never connected it before to patchface but totally agree!

Patchface the grey came back as Patchface the white....

[Urrax2]

There's also nothing to say that a balrog can't survive under water,...

Well, the Moria balrog's fire went out when he fell into the lake with Gandalf. But he stayed alive and it did light up again later in their fight.

[corbon]

A great point, because the question would have been.. and then what happened? They knew someone might find them, that's why they were there after all.

Say they had defeated Ned and Co. Rhaegar was dead, Aerys was dead. What then? If the threat had passed and their secret was safe, would they have then fleed for somewhere else, or just hang out at the ToJ forever? How far would their oaths extend? Where would their orders come from? Who would they trust for the next step?

Howland saved Ned, we know that, but maybe considering the rest of the plan from the perspective of the KG could shed some light.

I don't know any better than anyone else. My guess is they would of gone into exile and raised Jon in secret for a return, much like Aegon has supposedly been raised. Possibly in contact with the Martells along the way.

But first, they have a small breathing space for Lyanna to either die or recover. At least enough to travel less obviously, and unpursued.

A large part of the point is that form what we understand, at the point in time when Ned arrived, they were not able to travel safely due to Lyanna's condition. Travelling represents a greater risk than staying hid, as long as they believe no enemies know their current location. Once Ned finds them, that risk assessment changes, but its already too late to flee in their current condition.

OK, let's look at that as a starting point.

That the KG were far away from Aerys when he died is apparent from Hightower's remark in Ned's dream (if we interpret it literally).

But how do you conclude the boldfaced?

They are at an abandoned watchtower in a pass.

They are almost certainly hiding from Aerys as well as the rebels (the idea that Aerys knew their location and didn't insist that Lyanna stayed under his immediate control is ... well, I have no words for that. Lyanna's value as a potential hostage against Ned, Robert and even Rhaegar, and Aerys' paranoia and hostage using ideas rule out any possibility he knew where she was.)

Therefore they are almost certainly not in contact with the local lords but have very limited contact with a very secretive ally (the Daynes?). As an abandoned watchtower, there is zero possibility they are on the raven network, since no ravens will have been raised there. Their only source of information therefore is people who come directly to them, who know they are there and bring them news.

With Lyanna there in very late stages of pregnancy they probably have been there for several months, even if not necessarily the whole time since the abduction. So they've almost certainly been in precise location since before the sack. And isolated even before that.

How else will they receive news?

[corbon]

I can see how, if you believe many of the standard theories, reading this thread would feel like we are being "hostile". But, and this gets back to the bolded line, if you're just reading and not participating, we don't even know you are there. We don't post for the purpose of providing reading material to others (though of course I am in no way implying people shouldn't read heresy), but to bounce ideas off each other and thus come closer to the truth. We also don't post for the purpose of insulting RLJ,

Thank you for your dialogue and kind words MS.

Its not the ideas here that are hostile. Its that a significant number of posters do exactly that last above, enough for it to create a thread-feel. If it weren't the stated and self-lauded policy not to do that, that would just be tough luck for those insulted. Much as it is when some of the less pleasant posters elsewhere do the same thing. But this thread specifically and explicitly sells itself as better than that.

[JNR]

[The KG] are at an abandoned watchtower in a pass.

When? Are we still talking about the point in time when they would have heard about Aerys appointing VIserys his heir, following the Trident?

If so, what's the canon foundation for placing them there?

[JNR]

Also, with the description of "burning ghosts" I can see where you might have got confused between a balrog and a ghost, but again, this is down to semantics and is easily cleared up with a little understanding of the symbolism. Partly my fault, I talked about haunting. But it's obvious that a ghost isn't going to come along and eat seals, fish, people, and it isn't going to burn anything down. At that point, it's not a ghost, it's something else.

We have a direct eyewitness account of Summer seeing R'hllor the Balrog above Winterfell.

Why did it go to Winterfell? To descend into Lyanna's crypt and grab the One Ring, or as we call it, the ancient crown of the Kings of Winter.

Balrog is an anagram of grab lo.

I can't believe you're still debating this.

[romantic]

I'm invariably a few days behind the discussion but has anyone ever brought up the idea that the reason Rhaegar 'fell upon' (a strange way of describing something) Lyanna was because he was attempting a wildling 'wife' abduction? And being a strong-minded, athletic northern woman, and probably aware of the wilding rituals, she may have fought back and injured Rhaegar, forcing him into hiding for many months while he recuperated. A badly injured crown prince might be seen as far more vulnerable than a missing Crown prince. The blood on her clothes in Theon's dream might not even be hers but have led directly or indirectly to her eventual death.

[markg171]

I don't know any better than anyone else. My guess is they would of gone into exile and raised Jon in secret for a return, much like Aegon has supposedly been raised. Possibly in contact with the Martells along the way.

But first, they have a small breathing space for Lyanna to either die or recover. At least enough to travel less obviously, and unpursued.

A large part of the point is that form what we understand, at the point in time when Ned arrived, they were not able to travel safely due to Lyanna's condition. Travelling represents a greater risk than staying hid, as long as they believe no enemies know their current location. Once Ned finds them, that risk assessment changes, but its already too late to flee in their current condition.

They are at an abandoned watchtower in a pass.

They are almost certainly hiding from Aerys as well as the rebels (the idea that Aerys knew their location and didn't insist that Lyanna stayed under his immediate control is ... well, I have no words for that. Lyanna's value as a potential hostage against Ned, Robert and even Rhaegar, and Aerys' paranoia and hostage using ideas rule out any possibility he knew where she was.)

Therefore they are almost certainly not in contact with the local lords but have very limited contact with a very secretive ally (the Daynes?). As an abandoned watchtower, there is zero possibility they are on the raven network, since no ravens will have been raised there. Their only source of information therefore is people who come directly to them, who know they are there and bring them news.

With Lyanna there in very late stages of pregnancy they probably have been there for several months, even if not necessarily the whole time since the abduction. So they've almost certainly been in precise location since before the sack. And isolated even before that.

How else will they receive news?

Nothing says that the TOJ was an abandoned watchtower.

[corbon]

And this here i think is the problem starting with a positive conclusion that has not proven to be positive. Instead of starting out with no bias.But i'll bite lets look at this retrospectively with the conclusion that R+L=J ( I'd be fired for sure if i did this).

Sorry to make you do something so abhorrent, but the argument was being made that the Viserys pronouncement shot the KG-at-ToJ-proves-legit-Jon theory to shreds, so in order to enter that discussion we have to assume that otherwise said theory has validity, regardless of whether we believe in that or not.

I disagree there is nothing more "remarkable" than that Tower.Your eyes would be drawn to it as a landmark.Along the route there is Skyreach,Kingsgrave and the Tower and to say that it is close to the beaten track but off it and not a place anyone would go to is inaccurate.It is the easiest route between the Reach and the Stormlands into Dorne.You can't get less inconspicuous than that.One of the best ways Corbon to not be visible is to not be seen dilly dallying in front of the Tower when "anybody" is coming up the Pass.And the fact that Ned knew where to find them means it sucked as a secret hide out in theory and in action.

Your better off with Lya went into labor and it was what they could do on short notice and even that idea has serious problems.

Oh, you know so much about the ToJ? Everything I suggest is inaccurate because you know better?

Its a watchtower, in a pass. Watchtowers are built to watch the pass, not to defend the pass. They are often built off the main route a bit in a place that they can see more of it than down in it. While they are built to see the pass, from their top, that does not mean that the pass can see their bottom easily - especially decades, maybe even a century after they have fallen into disuse. The point that it has been abandoned also indicates probability that it is not out in the open on the main route through the pass. A tower on the main route is more likely to be maintained as it has many possible uses for travellers.

You seem to be positing an open tower on the main thoroughfare, but thats not only a poor place for a watchtower, most likely limited in view (this is a mountain pass we are talking about, and the thoroughfare will be on the lowest and easiest ground, with the least view), but its also a really silly place for a party that is hiding from both sides of a civil war without enough fighting strength to take on any serious force.

An abandoned watchtower though, off the main thoroughfare, but with a good view of much of the pass, is an ideal hiding place. Everyone going through the pass knows that its been abandoned for many many years and there is no reason to go there, it shouldn't be hard to stay out of sight of any travellers on the thoroughfare, and they have a good view of the pass and thoroughfare themselves.

The fact that Ned knew where to find them does not demonstrate that it sucked as a secret hideout in theory and action. It merely says that someone let the secret out. For it to suck as a secret hideout we would have to assume Ned found it by accident almost, without being told where to go. I think the makeup of his party, and the short time he took to find them clearly indicates that he knew Lyanna was there and someone told him exactly where to go.

It wasn't a secret hide out because someone knew where to look.I'm sorry i don't buy the secrecy angle at all it falls apart. And this fleeing is risky is a bad arguement too.According to you there is a newborn,so that means there is lets say one midwife.Lya is already critical if she's at the Tower in the first place. The midwife could have been given instruction,one Kingsguard could have gone with while the other two ( including one who could beat a man taking a piss with one hand yada yada stays back and whole Ned off the moment he was seen coming up the Pass .Hel the moment the babe was born.Whent was the weakest of the three he could have gone with the baby and the midwife (because we know no woman isn't doing that on her own).

Just because someone knew where to look, doesn't stop it from being a secret hideout. It just means that someone let the secret out, once at least.

The fact that Aerys didn't have Lyanna in his possession, and neither did Robert, shows that it was a secret location. The fact that Ned showed up with a tiny group of his closest personal retainers, mean who were more loyal to him than to their popular new king Robert, shows that it was still a secret, and one Ned intended to (and did!) keep.

Its wonderful the way you know exactly what the risks are and aren't. You have a heavily pregnant girl, a girl who appears to die relatively soon after birthing her child, probably due to post-partum infection, ie birthing complications, and know, its just no problem at all to ride around the countryside, and do so while pursued to.

Or, you leave her behind. Great. Not only do you have to raise the king telling him you abandoned his sick and dying mother, but now you have a man alone trying to travel incognito with a newborn babe - not happening!

Further, you now have cut your odds heavily. Its now 7v2, and then 7-x(casualties)+y(reinforcements) v 1 later. If you are going to fight at all, concentration of force is a basic concept.

Secrecy is already out the window i don't know what more they could do to make themselves more obvious.What a crying baby wasn't going to give that away.Hope of beating Ned and his party.That's a foolish risk to take Corbon.A really foolish risk no matter how good the KGs think they are.They have no way of knowing if there is reinforcement in the back of them.

Secrecy isn't out the window until Ned appears (and is identified or comes to, instead of past, them).

By the time he can be identified, the size and composition of his force can also be identified. And what that says is he has a very small and very elite force that isn't enough to win a real fight but is small and elite enough to keep a secret. Yes, Ned and his men have broken the secret, but he appears willing to keep it, so its possible that no one else has broken the secret. A good possibility (one that actually appears to be 100% accurate in fact). So if they can kill all of these men, they may just hold onto the secret long enough, a few days or a week or so, to be in a better position to move safely.

Again, its wonderful the way you so deeply understand all the variables and can do the risk analysis so accurately. Its a really really foolish risk to fight, but running is totally safe?

If they run, by then, there is no way with a little baby they can flee with any surety, much less if they have any care for the mother. If they fight, they have a chance. Maybe it is a foolish chance. I don't think your risk assessment is very realistic, but maybe you are right that it is a foolish chance. OTOH, I still think it is a lot higher than trying to run, now, where every hand is against them, they have nowhere to run to, and they are pursued already.

And, in the end, foolish chance or not, it very nearly came off. If not for HR...

Secrecy was out the door the moment they chose to stop in an obvious place and it was obvious.Destroying all who knows.What if it wasn't seven who showed up but 20,30,100 this wasn't thought out Corbon,sorry.Your job i think would be anticipating the worst possible scenario.Any and every scenario presented knocks secrecy and physicall protection off the peg.

Whats obvious about an abandoned watchtower?

If 20, 30, 100 show up they are screwed anyway. But whats the alternative? Roam around the countryside hoping no one will recognise them?

The bad scenarios see them screwed anyway. Their job is to pick the best option available to them and then try to make that work, not to anticipate everything possible and somehow magical conjure answers for everything.

I think thinking things through does not mean what you think it means.

Meaning the KGs based on this statement and their reaction to Ned's Jamie killed Aerys,the Queen fled to Dragnstone with Viserys makes it more likely based on what Yandel said about Viserys being heir that the KG knew the King made him the heir.Your statement that the info they recieved could only come from the New Regime is also not as solid.It could have come from a friendly in the Wall.That is a possibility.

Yes, its a possibility. But who knows about what happened in KL? The rebels do. They won.

Who is definitely disseminating information about what happened in KL? The rebels are, they need the whole country to know that the rebellion is over and there is a regime change.

Who has the public and private resources to disseminate the news? The rebels do, since they now own KL and can and will send out their news on the raven network to everywhere.

Postulating an unknown supporter inside KL getting information to them somehow is not impossible. But what makes a lot more sense, has a lot more probability, is that the same people who were logistically supporting them (Daynes?) received the widely disseminated news from the new regime and passed it on.

It was still a stupid risk to fight witout making a plan that would maybe see them dead and the baby captured.And i really really doubt that Dayne or any of those KG would peg Ned for a kinslayer.I'm sorry,Dayne atlease knew Ned better than that.

Ahh yes, your stupid risks. That almost worked.

Sorry, Where did Dayne know Ned from?

Why is the damage to 'King Jon' limited to his death at Ned's hand. What happened to Ned handing him over to his king Robert, as he was legally obliged to do? What happened to Ned saving his life but stealing his birthright, as he actually did? You think the KG are goin to stand by and let Ned do those sorts of things without fighting?

Corbon what your saying doesn't make sense they would think he changed the succession because Rhaegar and Aegon were dead and they already knew they were dead and the particulars of how they died including the King.And they knew the King was alive when the Queen and Viserys left it only makes sense that's the conclusion.

I don't see anything even resembling sense there.

There is a normal succession. It goes Aerys/Rhaegar/Aegon/(Jon)/Viserys.

Rhaegar is in favour now - Aerys recalled him to lead remember, and Hightower was the one who went looking for him.

Rhaegar dies. Aegon becomes heir. There is no reason to think Aerys would make Viserys heir at that point (or before that point). What use is a 7 year old kid more than a baby really anyway? Viserys is still the spare, tucked away on Dragonstone with his mother.

Then Aerys and Aegon die.

So everyone who doesn't know about Jon thinks Viserys is the (true) king now. Doesn't matter. They know different, they know that Jon comes ahead of Viserys.

Soooo Ned who knew how talented these men were off the bat, brought 7 men and with a hope and a prayer thought nah we are just going to talk? IMO Ned's fever dream jumbled to events what happened at the TOJ and Lya's death into one sequence.

There is no surety that Ned knew the three KG would be there. If Lyanna wasn't there, what the heck was he doing going to that abandoned tower, with just a few men? And why does he need to fight, at great risk to he and his men, why not just move on?

And if he did know, perhaps he thought they'd surrender - if R+L were not actually married, I don't, in Ned's place, see why they would fight there anyway - or perhaps he thought he would win (I very much doubt this is his train of thought). He did after all.

I can see a coherent narrative in the whole thing. Everyone involved doing the best, most sensible things they can according to the information they have. But I see very little coherence in any of the objections to it, just people complaining that this or that is stupid or foolish or illogical because their own narrative fails.

[markg171]

I'm invariably a few days behind the discussion but has anyone ever brought up the idea that the reason Rhaegar 'fell upon' (a strange way of describing something) Lyanna was because he was attempting a wildling 'wife' abduction? And being a strong-minded, athletic northern woman, and probably aware of the wilding rituals, she may have fought back and injured Rhaegar, forcing him into hiding for many months while he recuperated. A badly injured crown prince might be seen as far more vulnerable than a missing Crown prince. The blood on her clothes in Theon's dream might not even be hers but have led directly or indirectly to her eventual death.

Funny you should mention that, as the only two other times that the phrase "spattered with gore" (which is how Lyanna is described) are used in the books is to described someone who is covered in someone else's blood and body matter

A man-at-arms grabbed the bridle of his horse and thrust at Tyrion’s face with a dagger. He knocked the blade aside and buried the axe in the nape of the man’s neck. As he was wresting it free, a blaze of white appeared at the edge of his vision. Tyrion turned, thinking to find Ser Mandon Moore beside him again, but this was a different white knight. Ser Balon Swann wore the same armor, but his horse trappings bore the battling black-and-white swans of his House. He’s more a spotted knight than a white one, Tyrion thought inanely. Every bit of Ser Balon was spattered with gore and smudged by smoke. He raised his mace to point downriver. Bits of brain and bone clung to its head. “My lord, look.”

The Mountain whirled. Helm, shield, sword, surcoat; he was spattered with gore from head to heels. “You talk too much,” he grumbled. “You make my head hurt.”

Which would imply that it's not Lyanna's gore either.