Heresy 157

[corbon]

When? Are we still talking about the point in time when they would have heard about Aerys appointing VIserys his heir, following the Trident?

If so, what's the canon foundation for placing them there?

They are definitely there when Ned turns up.

Lyanna is still in her bed of blood, which means she has given birth recently, and dies of a fever. So she gave birth some time in the last 10 days or so.

Its unlikely they have moved around a lot in the last stages of her pregnancy, both because of the pregnancy and because moving around is inherently more dangerous to a party in hiding (from both Aerys and the rebels) than staying quietly in one secret place. SO they've probably been in the same place for at least a month, maybe longer.

Their news is post-sack and very likely to have taken some time to reach them.

The sack timing is around 2-6 weeks or so before ToJ.

So they have very very likely received the news while they were at ToJ.

[corbon]

Nothing says that the TOJ was an abandoned watchtower.

Someone wanna take this?

[wolfmaid7]

Sorry to make you do something so abhorrent, but the argument was being made that the Viserys pronouncement shot the KG-at-ToJ-proves-legit-Jon theory to shreds, so in order to enter that discussion we have to assume that otherwise said theory has validity, regardless of whether we believe in that or not.

Oh, you know so much about the ToJ? Everything I suggest is inaccurate because you know better?

Its a watchtower, in a pass. Watchtowers are built to watch the pass, not to defend the pass. They are often built off the main route a bit in a place that they can see more of it than down in it. While they are built to see the pass, from their top, that does not mean that the pass can see their bottom easily - especially decades, maybe even a century after they have fallen into disuse. The point that it has been abandoned also indicates probability that it is not out in the open on the main route through the pass. A tower on the main route is more likely to be maintained as it has many possible uses for travellers.

You seem to be positing an open tower on the main thoroughfare, but thats not only a poor place for a watchtower, most likely limited in view (this is a mountain pass we are talking about, and the thoroughfare will be on the lowest and easiest ground, with the least view), but its also a really silly place for a party that is hiding from both sides of a civil war without enough fighting strength to take on any serious force.

An abandoned watchtower though, off the main thoroughfare, but with a good view of much of the pass, is an ideal hiding place. Everyone going through the pass knows that its been abandoned for many many years and there is no reason to go there, it shouldn't be hard to stay out of sight of any travellers on the thoroughfare, and they have a good view of the pass and thoroughfare themselves.

The fact that Ned knew where to find them does not demonstrate that it sucked as a secret hideout in theory and action. It merely says that someone let the secret out. For it to suck as a secret hideout we would have to assume Ned found it by accident almost, without being told where to go. I think the makeup of his party, and the short time he took to find them clearly indicates that he knew Lyanna was there and someone told him exactly where to go.

Just because someone knew where to look, doesn't stop it from being a secret hideout. It just means that someone let the secret out, once at least.

The fact that Aerys didn't have Lyanna in his possession, and neither did Robert, shows that it was a secret location. The fact that Ned showed up with a tiny group of his closest personal retainers, mean who were more loyal to him than to their popular new king Robert, shows that it was still a secret, and one Ned intended to (and did!) keep.

Its wonderful the way you know exactly what the risks are and aren't. You have a heavily pregnant girl, a girl who appears to die relatively soon after birthing her child, probably due to post-partum infection, ie birthing complications, and know, its just no problem at all to ride around the countryside, and do so while pursued to.

Or, you leave her behind. Great. Not only do you have to raise the king telling him you abandoned his sick and dying mother, but now you have a man alone trying to travel incognito with a newborn babe - not happening!

Further, you now have cut your odds heavily. Its now 7v2, and then 7-x(casualties)+y(reinforcements) v 1 later. If you are going to fight at all, concentration of force is a basic concept.

Secrecy isn't out the window until Ned appears (and is identified or comes to, instead of past, them).

By the time he can be identified, the size and composition of his force can also be identified. And what that says is he has a very small and very elite force that isn't enough to win a real fight but is small and elite enough to keep a secret. Yes, Ned and his men have broken the secret, but he appears willing to keep it, so its possible that no one else has broken the secret. A good possibility (one that actually appears to be 100% accurate in fact). So if they can kill all of these men, they may just hold onto the secret long enough, a few days or a week or so, to be in a better position to move safely.

Again, its wonderful the way you so deeply understand all the variables and can do the risk analysis so accurately. Its a really really foolish risk to fight, but running is totally safe?

If they run, by then, there is no way with a little baby they can flee with any surety, much less if they have any care for the mother. If they fight, they have a chance. Maybe it is a foolish chance. I don't think your risk assessment is very realistic, but maybe you are right that it is a foolish chance. OTOH, I still think it is a lot higher than trying to run, now, where every hand is against them, they have nowhere to run to, and they are pursued already.

And, in the end, foolish chance or not, it very nearly came off. If not for HR...

Whats obvious about an abandoned watchtower?

If 20, 30, 100 show up they are screwed anyway. But whats the alternative? Roam around the countryside hoping no one will recognise them?

The bad scenarios see them screwed anyway. Their job is to pick the best option available to them and then try to make that work, not to anticipate everything possible and somehow magical conjure answers for everything.

I think thinking things through does not mean what you think it means.

Yes, its a possibility. But who knows about what happened in KL? The rebels do. They won.

Who is definitely disseminating information about what happened in KL? The rebels are, they need the whole country to know that the rebellion is over and there is a regime change.

Who has the public and private resources to disseminate the news? The rebels do, since they now own KL and can and will send out their news on the raven network to everywhere.

Postulating an unknown supporter inside KL getting information to them somehow is not impossible. But what makes a lot more sense, has a lot more probability, is that the same people who were logistically supporting them (Daynes?) received the widely disseminated news from the new regime and passed it on.

Ahh yes, your stupid risks. That almost worked.

Sorry, Where did Dayne know Ned from?

Why is the damage to 'King Jon' limited to his death at Ned's hand. What happened to Ned handing him over to his king Robert, as he was legally obliged to do? What happened to Ned saving his life but stealing his birthright, as he actually did? You think the KG are goin to stand by and let Ned do those sorts of things without fighting?

I don't see anything even resembling sense there.

There is a normal succession. It goes Aerys/Rhaegar/Aegon/(Jon)/Viserys.

Rhaegar is in favour now - Aerys recalled him to lead remember, and Hightower was the one who went looking for him.

Rhaegar dies. Aegon becomes heir. There is no reason to think Aerys would make Viserys heir at that point (or before that point). What use is a 7 year old kid more than a baby really anyway? Viserys is still the spare, tucked away on Dragonstone with his mother.

Then Aerys and Aegon die.

So everyone who doesn't know about Jon thinks Viserys is the (true) king now. Doesn't matter. They know different, they know that Jon comes ahead of Viserys.

There is no surety that Ned knew the three KG would be there. If Lyanna wasn't there, what the heck was he doing going to that abandoned tower, with just a few men? And why does he need to fight, at great risk to he and his men, why not just move on?

And if he did know, perhaps he thought they'd surrender - if R+L were not actually married, I don't, in Ned's place, see why they would fight there anyway - or perhaps he thought he would win (I very much doubt this is his train of thought). He did after all.

I can see a coherent narrative in the whole thing. Everyone involved doing the best, most sensible things they can according to the information they have. But I see very little coherence in any of the objections to it, just people complaining that this or that is stupid or foolish or illogical because their own narrative fails.

Corbon nowhere did i say what i'm saying is better,its saying that it's a better possibility and the reason i am opting out this arguement with you.Because i see very little coherence in what you are saying and to me it falls apart because you are starting with a conclusion that has yet to be determined as fact,one that has flaws in logic,reason and human behavior.Thank you for all that you said and the rudeness exhibited by you in this is upsetting my calm and your presumptions is shutting me down.People here have valid reasons for questioning this theory because it DOESN'T MAKE sense.Even when you "try" to explain portions it makes less sense.I'm looking at this the very thing you are accusing people of is what i'm getting.It's rude to chalk questioning clear problems in a theory as "complaining"

[JNR]

They are definitely there when Ned turns up.

Lyanna is still in her bed of blood, which means she has given birth recently, and dies of a fever. So she gave birth some time in the last 10 days or so.

Its unlikely they have moved around a lot in the last stages of her pregnancy, both because of the pregnancy and because moving around is inherently more dangerous to a party in hiding (from both Aerys and the rebels) than staying quietly in one secret place. SO they've probably been in the same place for at least a month, maybe longer.

Their news is post-sack and very likely to have taken some time to reach them.

The sack timing is around 2-6 weeks or so before ToJ.

So they have very very likely received the news while they were at ToJ.

OK, let's assume the above, just for the sake of argument.

Now demonstrate that the KG were with Lyanna at the point in time when Aerys named Viserys his heir.

[markg171]

Someone wanna take this?

No seriously, where does it ever say that the tower was abandoned? Because as far as I'm aware it never says that.

It's a watchtower yeah, but it's never described as being abandoned.

[Eira Seren]

Well, the Moria balrog's fire went out when he fell into the lake with Gandalf. But he stayed alive and it did light up again later in their fight.

Precisely! And balrogs are quite difficult to kill. It took destroying Angband to greatly reduce their strength of numbers.

We have a direct eyewitness account of Summer seeing R'hllor the Balrog above Winterfell.

Why did it go to Winterfell? To descend into Lyanna's crypt and grab the One Ring, or as we call it, the ancient crown of the Kings of Winter.

Balrog is an anagram of grab lo.

I can't believe you're still debating this.

You're kidding, right? I mean, sure, if you believe the viewpoint of a direwolf.

Right, let’s go back to this Stark crown for a moment. Now, here:

JNR, on 11 Mar 2015 - 2:01 PM, said:

The Balrog was drawn to the power of the One Ring, which sat on the head of the Kings of Winter (see ETA in previous post), who lived at Winterfell. Not Hardhome.

I can see where you’re going with this, but would like to point out that while it’s clear that there are some parallels with the Stark’s crown and the Iron Crown belonging to Morgoth (usually always guarded by balrogs) it really doesn’t pan out.

Thingol tasks Beren: Bring to me in your hand a Silmaril from Morgoth’s crown; and then, if she will, Luthien may set her hand in yours. . . . The Silmaril in question is, of course, set in the Iron Crown . . . and Balrogs were about [it], and countless swords, and strong bars, and unassailable walls, and the dark majesty of Morgoth (Silmarillion 167).

So there any similarities end. Morgoth’s crown has jewels, the Silmarils. Robb’s crown, said to be a replica of the old Kings of Winter crown has no jewels, not a sparkle to be found: An open circlet of hammered bronze incised with the runes of the First Men, surmounted by nine black iron spikes wrought in the shape of longswords. Of gold and silver and gemstones, it had none; bronze and iron were the metals of winter, dark and strong to fight against the cold. (ACOK, Cat, chapter 7).

Lastly, and most obviously, the One ring and Morgoth’s Iron Crown were never the same thing. Which you would know if you’d only take a little more time :read:

So there’s really no foundation at all for a crown, or anything else, to be drawing a balrog to the Winterfell crypts. And seriously, no room in Lyanna’s crypt for all the shit you’ve previously mentioned; nor balrogs, “countless swords, and strong bars, and unassailable walls, and the dark majesty of Morgoth,” either.

[Black Crow]

This tower one's getting a little heated so I think some thoughts of cool clear water are called for.

Please, on both sides, remember two points:

First, and I'm not going to repeat the SSM again, GRRM is on record as saying that the passage around which all of this revolves was a dream and a fever dream at that, and that its not to be taken literally. This isn't an allusion to blood-streaked skies and Lord Eddard's companions but is a direct response to a question about why the fight happened there.

Therefore although its possible to argue that the two scenes - the fight and the dying Lyanna - are sequential and that Lyanna died in the tower; that is only a theory and a theory undermined by the warning about dreams not always being literal.

Secondly there is the revelation about Viserys being declared the heir before Aegon supposedly got his head bashed in. Again it is possible to argue that Whent and the others were ignorant of this or for reasons unknown were ignoring it, but we simply don't know.

The point of this health warning to all being; by all means set out a theory to explain what happened at the tower and why Lord Eddard has been haunted by that fight for years - and remember that in the context of just having been beaten up by Jaime Lannister the dream is about the fight - and then marshall your arguments accordingly, but we are arguing theories because there is no certainty that Whent was ignorant of the decree and no certainty that Lyanna was in the tower.

[Black Crow]

No seriously, where does it ever say that the tower was abandoned? Because as far as I'm aware it never says that.

It's a watchtower yeah, but it's never described as being abandoned.

There are just three references to the tower in text, all in AGoT 39 Eddard:

He dreamed an old dream, of three knights in white cloaks, and a tower long fallen, and Lyanna in her bed of blood.

They waited before the round tower, the red mountains of Dorne at their backs, their white cloaks blowing in the wind.

Ned had pulled the tower down afterward, and used its bloody stones to build eight cairns on the ridge. It was said that Rhaegar had named that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory. They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed.

[corbon]

Thank you for all that you said and the rudeness exhibited by you in this is upsetting my calm and your presumptions is shutting me down.

Can someone point out any rudeness for me please?

OK, let's assume the above, just for the sake of argument.

Now demonstrate that the KG were with Lyanna at the point in time when Aerys named Viserys his heir.

Demonstrate they weren't?

Best information we have places Dayne and Whent with Rhaegar when Lyanna was 'abducted'. Latest information we have places them with her when she is found. She needs protection of some kind, as a heavily pregnant noblewoman and a hugely valuable political pawn, there isn't anyone else we know of.

Similarly, Hightower is with her now, but was last seen in KL off to find Rhaegar and appears to have succeeded well before the Trident or Sack. Is there any reason to suggest he be anywhere else?

[King Tyrion XX]

They are definitely there when Ned turns up.

Lyanna is still in her bed of blood, which means she has given birth recently, and dies of a fever. So she gave birth some time in the last 10 days or so.

Its unlikely they have moved around a lot in the last stages of her pregnancy, both because of the pregnancy and because moving around is inherently more dangerous to a party in hiding (from both Aerys and the rebels) than staying quietly in one secret place. SO they've probably been in the same place for at least a month, maybe longer.

Their news is post-sack and very likely to have taken some time to reach them.

The sack timing is around 2-6 weeks or so before ToJ.

So they have very very likely received the news while they were at ToJ.

You stated practically every bit of that as if it were fact.

What texts from the books make you so confident?

[King Tyrion XX]

Someone wanna take this?

Why not you?

[corbon]

This tower one's getting a little heated so I think some thoughts of cool clear water are called for.

No heat from my end. No one has yet explained why there is heat at/from the other end (most people are probably in bed, I'm in a markedly different timezone than US and even europe).

Please, on both sides, remember two points:

...

The point of this health warning to all being; by all means set out a theory to explain what happened at the tower and why Lord Eddard has been haunted by that fight for years - and remember that in the context of just having been beaten up by Jaime Lannister the dream is about the fight - and then marshall your arguments accordingly, but we are arguing theories because there is no certainty that Whent was ignorant of the decree and no certainty that Lyanna was in the tower.

Remember, this discussion stems from the assumption that the Viserys news invalidates the KG-at-ToJ=Legit-Jon theory.

For this assumption (or the crowing about it) to have any purpose we have to assume that the theory held some water before that, or else why the fuss.

So its not that we take this foundation theory as certain per se, its that for the purposes of this discussion, we must assume it to be true. We aren't discussing alternate theories, we are discussing the invalidation of this one.

[Black Crow]

Remember, this discussion stems from the assumption that the Viserys news invalidates the KG-at-ToJ=Legit-Jon theory.

For this assumption (or the crowing about it) to have any purpose we have to assume that the theory held some water before that, or else why the fuss.

So its not that we take this foundation theory as certain per se, its that for the purposes of this discussion, we must assume it to be true. We aren't discussing alternate theories, we are discussing the invalidation of this one.

Ah well that's where perceptions of this argument are out of synch.

It is perfectly possible to argue as you're doing that Whent and his companions were unaware of the decree and that therefore so far as the fight at the tower is concerned it doesn't invalidate the argument.

What the revelation does do is invalidate the utter certainty with which the argument has been presented by some as an immutable fact.

[Black Crow]

Something else worth mentioning here is the conspicuous absence of Lyanna in the exchange in front of the tower. Were Lord Eddard searching for his sister surely the dialogue would open with "where is she?" or words to that effect. The response has been offered that the trio were declining to admit they were defending "their" king, but by the traditional interpretation Eddard knows nothing of that so why doesn't he ask?

Is it not worth questioning whether Lord Eddard and his companions were actually hunting down the last three surviving members of Aerys' Kings Guard and that Lyanna was already dead after extracting the "promise" to take them [or at least Ser Arthur] alive?

Yes, its just a theory but its one which offers a possible solution to a fever dream not to be taken literally and in which the only certainties is that they fought by that tower and only Lord Eddard and Howland Reed rode away from it.

It was said that Rhaegar had named that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory. They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed.

Indeed that passage is in itself significant, because the bitter memory is about the fight and those who died in it.

[corbon]

Something else worth mentioning here is the conspicuous absence of Lyanna in the exchange in front of the tower. Were Lord Eddard searching for his sister surely the dialogue would open with "where is she?" or words to that effect. The response has been offered that the trio were declining to admit they were defending "their" king, but by the traditional interpretation Eddard knows nothing of that so why doesn't he ask?

Is it not worth questioning whether Lord Eddard and his companions were actually hunting down the last three surviving members of Aerys' Kings Guard and that Lyanna was already dead after extracting the "promise" to take them [or at least Ser Arthur] alive?

Yes, its just a theory but its one which offers a possible solution to a fever dream not to be taken literally and in which the only certainties is that they fought by that tower and only Lord Eddard and Howland Reed rode away from it.

From my POV, assuming all other things, there is no need for him to ask. He knows, its obvious, or close enough to it. I see there is a lot of pertinent unstated information right through that conversation. We only get the words, but the unstated knowledge and context of the participants informs them of a lot more than we get from those bare words - just like many real conversations.

He's only come to this place because she's there, and the presence of the 2 KG supposedly with her when she disappeared merely confirms that, as does their unwillingness to let him pass.

In short, I don't see that as a necessary opening on his part, no 'surely'. So I don't see its absence creating questions.

Note that this is different from saying 'don't ask questions', even these questions. I'm just saying my preferred (most likely, not exclusive) narrative already absorbs this without issues.

[TheSmallOther]

From my POV, assuming all other things, there is no need for him to ask. He knows, its obvious, or close enough to it. I see there is a lot of pertinent unstated information right through that conversation. We only get the words, but the unstated knowledge and context of the participants informs them of a lot more than we get from those bare words - just like many real conversations.

He's only come to this place because she's there, and the presence of the 2 KG supposedly with her when she disappeared merely confirms that, as does their unwillingness to let him pass.

In short, I don't see that as a necessary opening on his part, no 'surely'. So I don't see its absence creating questions.

Note that this is different from saying 'don't ask questions', even these questions. I'm just saying my preferred (most likely, not exclusive) narrative already absorbs this without issues.

There are too many possibilities about that context and unstated knowledge which may be completely different. E.g., as some stated before, it's even possible Lyanna died long before that fight. And Ned's motives for comming are not so clear. If it is for Lyanna, why the band is so small? You mentioned it's for secrecy and I fully agree on that. But saving his sister shouldn't be a secret. Of course, Robert would like to save his beloved girl, too. Come, he even claims this war was started because of her, now it's good chance to prove it. Send an army, bring back the girl, deal with remaining Targaryan KG.

I'm rather keen to think that girl wasn't there.

[WeaselPie]

Corbon, we've discussed all those details for the simple reason that some of us believe it doesn't add up.

We've wondered if Lyanna was elsewhere, or already dead. We've wondered how the KG could possibly know that Lyanna was going to give birth to a healthy live male. We've wondered why Ned didn't show immediate concern for Lyanna (even if he somehow knew she was there, he could not possibly know if she was alive). We've wondered why Ned didn't bring a larger army to save the new King's betrothed (how could Ned possibly know about a baby before he set out?), We've wondered why Gerold says they were "far away" and not "here" when asked about the Sack. And now we're realizing (if the KG did indeed know Viserys was the heir, then they weren't guarding a "king")...etc.

Lots of questions, which have inspired some really interesting discussions about the possibilities. Further, there have been many in depth dissections regarding the ToH (Why was Rhaegar so public about his gesture with the laurel? Was it political?) Lyanna's disappearance and how it happened (Who was Rhaegar with? Who reported that it was Rhaegar? Was Lyanna out roaming the countryside without household guards for Rhaegar to randomly fall upon her? Why is ten leagues from Harrenhal important? Where could that have been?) and mysterious of the prolongued absence while the realm suffered and loved ones were tortured (why didn't Lyanna send word? why didn't Rhaegar?)...etc.

Lots of questions, lots of discussions and I can't summarize everything obviously.

And there are several possibilities, until GRRM writes it in stone. The new info from TWOIAF does indeed question the events at the ToJ, but it is only yet another question in a series of many.

For the record, questioning all of these events may not even have an effect on RLJ in the end. The simple answer is that Lyanna was not in that tower, and Ned was having a fever dream.

However, to conclude that GRRM gave away the entire mystery in a few dozen lines of AGoT 39 is short-sighted, in my opinion.

[Essan]

Something else worth mentioning here is the conspicuous absence of Lyanna in the exchange in front of the tower. Were Lord Eddard searching for his sister surely the dialogue would open with "where is she?" or words to that effect. The response has been offered that the trio were declining to admit they were defending "their" king, but by the traditional interpretation Eddard knows nothing of that so why doesn't he ask?

Indeed, from the exchange we have, it seems to me that either Ned did not know that his sister and nephew were within the tower, until after the fight, or else both sides knew exactly what he had come for and the fight was a last stand to protect Lyanna and Jon from an evil kinslaying Stark ..... The former is possible, the latter doesn't really make any sense at all to me, given all we know of Ned. Even if the KG believed Jon to be the true heir to the throne, why would they die to stop his honourable uncle from seeing him? Or, of course, Lyanna and Jon were not there at all and the fever dream is a mismash of two seperate events. As we have speculated here before.

I personally think there was something else in the tower, that the KG had been ordered to search for, find and protect - hence why they were 'far away' during the rebellion and why now, after the war was over, they were prepared to fight to the last. It's the only way the fight makes much sense to me.

[King Tyrion XX]

Random crackpot time.

What if Rhaegar and the 3 KG, with or without Lyanna, went north of the Wall? It would explain the "far away" answer instead of "we were here at TOJ".

Why would they be north of the Wall? Some ideas would be digging in the Frostfangs or Rhaegar and his prophecy business.

I doubt the required travel time gets them to TOJ in time starting from Rhaegar's disappearance, but thought for food.

If they weren't at TOJ, which their "far away" answer seems to imply, where the hell were they?

[WeaselPie]

Random crackpot time.

What if Rhaegar and the 3 KG, with or without Lyanna, went north of the Wall? It would explain the "far away" answer instead of "we were here at TOJ".

Why would they be north of the Wall? Some ideas would be digging in the Frostfangs or Rhaegar and his prophecy business.

I doubt the required travel time gets them to TOJ in time starting from Rhaegar's disappearance, but thought for food.

If they weren't at TOJ, which their "far away" answer seems to imply, where the hell were they?

Part of my own beloved crackpot.

ETA and that the KG came back coldhanded. Ned had to burn them ergo no bones to return.