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What does Stannis do if he wins the battle of ice?


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I don't think he'll even have time to make another move. Remember how things were left at the Wall, all hell was breaking out. I think Mance is going to be making moves with his now reconstituted army on the other side of the wall, and between the Weeper, the Others, and the Night's Watch's own internal strife, the Wall is going to fall quickly, figuratively if not literally. I think Stan the Man is going to be caught smack dab in the middle of the epic shit-storm that has been brewing since book one before he even has time to assess his gains and losses. Though I do expect him to defeat the Boltons at least for now.

Honestly, I can't even see that many possibilities for positive outcomes for Stannis even if I'm wrong about how things go at the wall. Even if he slaughters the Boltons, gains the full support of the Northern Lords (which I honestly think is impossible, I think there are already two factions in the North, the Manderly faction which is all but Stannis's already, and the Rhyswell faction which has its own agenda that has nothing to do with either Stannis or Roose Bolton) he's still going to be snowed-in in Winterfell with no horses and a dwindling army of starving men.

Perhaps he could make it to White Harbor and hop on the Manderly's newly constructed war fleet and start heading South again, but that kinda renders his whole "save the Kingdom to win the Kingdom" plan pointless. In fact he may have ensured that the Wall will fall by destabilizing the Night's Watch even further. Jon and Mance might have been able to come to some sort of understanding, provided they could have gotten Allister Thorne and Janus Slynt out of the way, not saying its likely, but it's possible. To have intervened and created all this chaos and then simply abandoned the Watch, he would look even more impotent and selfish than any propaganda from the Lannisters could ever make him look.

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I think the Northern lords, or some of them anyway, are okay with him. I think if he wins he sieges WF. I think theirreill be an assault using the crypts to gain access. He'll want to mobilize against the Freys as that will rally the North to him. I think he'll make a play for the Iron Islands. Torgon the Latecomer is the loophole he needs to use to install Theon as his vassal at Pyke. Incidentally this is another cause the North can get behind. But then Arya poses as Justin Massey and hijacks his sellswords.

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Anyone who thinks Stannis cannot win is sorely mistaken. Here's a link to quite possibly the most detailed college level analysis of any subject in asoiaf, and certainly the most detailed on Stannis's campaign in the North. It's really pretty amazing even if parts of it don't play out as predicted, though I think they will.

https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/08/20/dragonsilver-the-true-nature-and-purpose-of-lightbringer/

(Link is to a specific article but there is an order to these essays I suggest clicking on the Manifesto tab at the top of the screen and starting with the first essay listed)

The question that matters less to the "game" but more to the "song" is after Stannis wins what happens next? I think he's going to be abandoned to the man by everyone but those he brought north. He'll retire to the NF. Never quitting even though it's over now despite everything he's done. This will be when he turns to darker source for power consequences be dammed and becomes the new NK. He'll lead armies of WW's down on Westeros no longer looking to rule only to punish everyone for turning their backs on the true King. Story sets up for a second NK and it has to be Jon or Stannis no one else makes sense. Heard all the Jon leads the WW's theories out there but they don't feel right to me. Stannis, who holds the NF currently I might add, makes perfect sense. He's got to be the blue eyed king with no shadow prophesied to Dany.

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What are you talking about? He won't win. How will he? He's got a 2-1 numbers advantage, but he has near-zero cavalry (as opposed to his opponents, who have tons), half of his men are almost completely useless in a regular battle (the clansmen; basically Wildlings), and he's about to get taken in the rear by the Karstark contingent as part of Roose's plan. With the Karstarks sowing chaos while the Frey heavy cavalry break his lines, the Frey infantry move in on the camp, and the Manderly cavalry cut the north flank to ribbons, his army will be smashed every member killed or routed. Then the Karstarks, Freys, and Manderlys will march back with Stannis's magic sword as proof of their great victory over the false king in seven days of battle. Or, at least, that's what Ramsay will report. About ten minutes before the "Freys" open the gates, let in a few thousand pissed off Northmen sworn to Stannis, and join them, the Manderlys, the Karstarks, the Umbers, and the other non-Bolton soldiers in a brawl inside the castle while Roose and co are off guard.



I think that Roose will most likely die there. It's possible, however, that he'll just up and leave after hearing of his vanguard's "victory", just leaving Ramsay, "Trueborn Lord of Winterfell", with 500 Bolton soldiers, and the remaining "Freys". Plus possibly the Karstarks and Manderlys. The rest of the Northmen go to their respective homes. To hold the castle (500 is a solid garrison), to hunt down the stragglers, and to retrieve the hostages from the Night's Watch and their Wildling goons (no use in bringing the Freys back to the Dreadfort). Then Stannis will reveal his great victory over the Freys and the Karstarks (and Manderlys, though they likely won't even participate in the battle before joining Stannis), have the "Freys" seize the castle from the inside, slaughter the Bolton garrison, and execute Ramsay. Then his main force will enter and occupy the castle. This, along with Davos retrieving Rickon, will give the Manderlys back at White Harbor the all clear to sail up and storm the Dreadfort before Roose gets back. Then Roose and his remaining army will be shit out of luck. Lady Dustin decides that Roose is now a lost cause and declares neutrality. That's a way for Roose to survive, though I'm not sure what role he would play if he doesn't die at Winterfell.



Whatever his plan is, I predict that the rest of the North will announce their loyalty to Stannis. Then Stannis, with the Northmen, the sellsword army, and Aurane Waters (because seahorses), will first fortify the Wall (as well as sort out the chaos in the aftermath of the mutiny), and then go down to the Riverlands and restore order while sweeping out the token force left to guard it. The Tyrells will be unable to effectively respond due to problems with Euron, fAegon, and the High Sparrow. Then he can gather up support in the Riverlands. What he will do next, I dunno. He could seize the Iron Islands, since there's probably next to no one left guarding them, but that might be a waste, since I doubt Euron cares. Or he could use Manderly's fleet and army to assault King's Landing. Or he could just never get to go to the Riverlands, due to the Other invasion.


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With winter in full force I doubt he'll be going South.



I also don't believe the North will betray, in fact I find that idea more ridiculous than any. They may not completely align with him but the idea of them using Stannis to get rid of the main enemy would remove a lot of sympathy from their cause and from the readers perspective it would be difficult to support a side who to this point have been generally portrayed as good (or as good can be relative to the story). Stannis isn't evil or dislikeable enough to justify a betrayal. It would be a total cluster fuck.



I think it's just more likely he's eventually defeated. They'll need to regroup or reinforce before they do anything. I think he'll stay in Winterfell until Rickon shows up and leaves him and Davos to rule before heading to north to find the Wall in utter chaos. That's where he dies IMO.


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Winning the Battle of the Ice and taking Winterfell is vital. I don't know what Stannis will do but if I were him I would realize that he needs a victory (yes, I know he beat the Wildings at the Wall but the Northern Nobles are going to say "so what, he beat the Wildings!"). Anyway once he has a victory or two under his belt against the Boltons and company and he shows that he can win then he has a chance to establish a base in the North and attract Northern Lords and soldiers to his cause. Winterfell is the key here, it is the heart of the North, and if he can attract a Stark to rule there so much the better. Bran is obviously out but, if Stannis proves that he can win maybe LF produces Sansa. now you have a coalition of Winterfell and the North, those tribesmen and Wildings fighting with Stannis, and the Vale, you have a credible powerbase against the Lannisters.


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My guess is that he takes Winterfell, installs Rickon as the new Lord of Winterfell and joins his new fleet from Manderly and heads south with his Army to invade King's Landing.



In the battle for the Red Keep, Cersie will see Tommen die (after hearing of Marcella's death after she was crowned as Queen) and she set the Red Keep ablaze with Wildfire.


Stannis will choke the life from Cersie's pale neck as they are both consumed by the fire that destroys the Iron Throne and most of King's Landing.



Therefore setting up the need to build a new Capitol/ Throne for whoever becomes the next Ruler


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My guess is that he takes Winterfell, installs Rickon as the new Lord of Winterfell and joins his new fleet from Manderly and heads south with his Army to invade King's Landing.

In the battle for the Red Keep, Cersie will see Tommen die (after hearing of Marcella's death after she was crowned as Queen) and she set the Red Keep ablaze with Wildfire.

Stannis will choke the life from Cersie's pale neck as they are both consumed by the fire that destroys the Iron Throne and most of King's Landing.

Therefore setting up the need to build a new Capitol/ Throne for whoever becomes the next Ruler

If Stannis goes out. I want it to be like that.

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I just can't see Stannis going south. I'm not sure he will win the battle for Winterfell, I just have a feeling something will go tragically wrong, like he will attack the Manderly forces. Or if he does win will lose support of the North. Or Melisandre will abandon him. Or something.


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Assuming that Wyman Manderly makes it out alive, the most immediate concern for Stannis will be getting the truth about what happened to Davos and what it means for Rickon. Given the amount of time that's passed it's quite possible that Davos and Rickon have already returned to White Harbor by the time the Battle of Ice is over (which makes me suspicious as to whether they will return at all; there's a lot of mystery behind Wyman and Wex's claims).



I agree that, given the situation at the Wall, once he learns about the Ides of Marsh and the wildlings Stannis will have to return to Castle Black to try to sort things out before he can even think about going south.


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He'll meet up with Manderly, get a decent meal from the Manderlys huge food stores, then run up on Winterfell.



Manderly must have left some guys to open the gates. Possibly Robitt Glover?



Robbit Glover is like a special forces dude. He took Harrenhal once, no reason he couldn't open the gates of Winterfell.


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I think Danys dream about the trident could be a foreshadowing of Stannis's fate, depending on if the Northern Lords turn on him in favour of Rickon. Hopefully not.

Stannis will have to turn his attention North, fortify Winterfell because the Others will have taken the Wall.

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