Sympathy for the Blackfyres

[Archaeology]

I can definitely understand the sympathy.

[The hairy bear]

On Daena, we don't even know what happened to her after Daemon was legitimized.

We don't even know if she was alive at that time, and I would venture that we would have heard of her if she had been.

The last we hear of her is that she was alive when Baelor I died. But once Aegon IV was crowned, one would expect that she would have openly become one of her mistresses (she would have been only 27 at the time). My best guess is that she died the year before, during the year of Viserys II, perhaps from complications of Daemon's birth.

Although I hope [Aenys Blackfyre] will turn out to be an actual threat to the Targaryens, say, being a charismatic orator well-connected both in Westeros and Essos with a good chance to sway the Lords at the Great Council to his side.

I'm convinced he was a real threat. We know little of how Great Councils work, but if the votes are secret we could expect that the "half of the realm" that rose with the Blackfyres would vote accordingly. Meanwhile, the ones that had sided with the red dragon would split the vote between Aegon, little Maegor, and Daeron's daughter.

Also, if every lord has one vote, that could make things worse: the black dragon and the red had similar forces, but Daeron the Good had more support among the great houses and Daemon had more followers among the lesser lords. So a Blackfyre candidate may easily attract a higher number of votes.

That is true, but it should be noted that from the houses we know apart from Robb Reyne it does not seem that many houses of true significance joined him. Bracken did not make it to the war so if he were truly as charismatic as believed, then surely he could've attracted more support than what we know of

House Bracken sided with the Blackfyres (TSS says that Lord Bracken was trying to hire Myrish crosbowmen for the cause).

I also don't think that we can judge the real strength of the Black side with the information of the current series, because some currently minor houses may have been great ones in the past, only to have their power disminished precisely for siding with the Blackfyres. This is certainly the case of the Peakes, that were strong enough to pose a threat to the Targaryens by themselves, and perhaps the Stricklands or the Shawneys were similarly powerful. We have no reason to doubt Lord Osgrey when he states that it was a close thing, and that the Blackfyres could have won if things had turned out differently.

[yzq]

Certainly, Bloodraven thinks that the whole thing was a rather close affair. He wouldn't have wanted Daemon dead ASAP if that wasn't the case.

[Tyrell_like_Squirrel]

We don't even know if she was alive at that time, and I would venture that we would have heard of her if she had been.

The last we hear of her is that she was alive when Baelor I died. But once Aegon IV was crowned, one would expect that she would have openly become one of her mistresses (she would have been only 27 at the time). My best guess is that she died the year before, during the year of Viserys II, perhaps from complications of Daemon's birth.

I'm convinced he was a real threat. We know little of how Great Councils work, but if the votes are secret we could expect that the "half of the realm" that rose with the Blackfyres would vote accordingly. Meanwhile, the ones that had sided with the red dragon would split the vote between Aegon, little Maegor, and Daeron's daughter.

Also, if every lord has one vote, that could make things worse: the black dragon and the red had similar forces, but Daeron the Good had more support among the great houses and Daemon had more followers among the lesser lords. So a Blackfyre candidate may easily attract a higher number of votes.

House Bracken sided with the Blackfyres (TSS says that Lord Bracken was trying to hire Myrish crosbowmen for the cause).

I also don't think that we can judge the real strength of the Black side with the information of the current series, because some currently minor houses may have been great ones in the past, only to have their power disminished precisely for siding with the Blackfyres. This is certainly the case of the Peakes, that were strong enough to pose a threat to the Targaryens by themselves, and perhaps the Stricklands or the Shawneys were similarly powerful. We have no reason to doubt Lord Osgrey when he states that it was a close thing, and that the Blackfyres could have won if things had turned out differently.

I forgot where I read it, I think it might have been Steven Atwell's analysis or something, but he mentioned that Maekar dies fighting the Peakes right before Aenys Blackfyre shows up for the great council. His theory was that Aenys was in league with the Peake family, to destabilize the monarchy and then usurp the throne through the council. Somehow Bloodraven found out, and that's what prompted him to immediately execute Aenys.

[Lion of the West]

I forgot where I read it, I think it might have been Steven Atwell's analysis or something, but he mentioned that Maekar dies fighting the Peakes right before Aenys Blackfyre shows up for the great council. His theory was that Aenys was in league with the Peake family, to destabilize the monarchy and then usurp the throne through the council. Somehow Bloodraven found out, and that's what prompted him to immediately execute Aenys.

I don't know, but it should be beyond even Bloodraven's abilities to mastermind a plot like that.

[The hairy bear]

I find this theory rather crackpoty. The Peakes could had predicted that if they rebelled Maekar would come to fight them in person, but banking on killing him during the siege of Starpike seems like a crazy bet.

[Lord Varys]

That makes little sense overall. Aenys or Bittersteel/Daemon III should have joined the Peakes in their rebellion if that rebellion had anything to do with the Blackfyres.

[Aemond's Eye]

I kinda think BS didn't support Daemon II because of his sexuality(along with the other things mentioned), when BS is all about continuing the Blackfyre line and Daemon not having "producing an heir" on his list of priorities causes some problems.

Being gay doesn't mean Daemon II would not have sired heirs, so I doubt that was a concern of Aegor's. If his rumoured sexuality was a factor it would be due to keeping up appearances.

[Tyrell_like_Squirrel]

I find this theory rather crackpoty. The Peakes could had predicted that if they rebelled Maekar would come to fight them in person, but banking on killing him during the siege of Starpike seems like a crazy bet.

It certainly could be crackpot, the problem is the lack of information about the whole era in particular. I have to be honest, I just felt a little suspicious about Aenys thinking that he could just waltz right in and take the crown, when his own brother Daemon III was the official Blackfyre candidate. I could see his attendance at the great council being a part of a greater scheme to win the crown.

But there's little to no evidence to back it up, so I concede its kinda crackpot lol.

[Lord Varys]

We don't need to assume a connection between the Peake Uprising and Aenys trying to win the throne at the Great Council. George's complete account on the crisis following Maekar's death strongly suggests that the Targaryen succession was far from clear, and that various factions would actually have began a war for succession to support their claimant. I imagine there was a very powerful faction of Aerion's friends and followers at court backing Prince Maegor's claim, especially since that would have meant a long regency during which they would have ruled. Aerion's friends were obviously not Egg's friends and vice versa, but there would also have been those lords opposed to Egg due to his reformist and peasant-friendly views not necessarily in favor of an infant king. Those lords, opposed to a 'King Aegon V', could have gathered a lot of votes in favor of a Blackfyre pretender if they allied with the remaining Blackfyre partisans/friends left in Westeros.

And Aenys clearly would have been better suited to sway them to his cause than Daemon III as he apparently had taken no active part in any former Blackfyre rebellion nor was he intimately connected to Bittersteel (which Haegon and Daemon III both were).

Aenys would have been an adult alternative to Egg - both Maegor and Vaella were ill-suited to challenge Egg's claim at a Great Council. I imagine that those lords who would have intended to declare for/support Aenys came up with the alternative of Maester Aemon to prevent Aegon V. We know that Bloodraven presented Aenys' head when he opened the council to cow any remaining Blackfyre loyalists but the Aemon idea was part of the actual deliberations during the council. Thus it is very likely that 'King Aemon' was a desperate attempt to prevent Aegon V after 'King Aenys Blackfyre' had been prevented.

[vyshan]

I like the Blackfyres and the Targyarans; Interesting stories to read IMO. :)

What I am curious about is what would have happened if the Blackfyres won. How would Deamon the first rule?, what would his children do. What would happen to dorne and so on.

[VVSINGOFTHECROSS]

I do kinda of wonder what would have happened had Daemon not rebelled.

[bittersteelsgold]

If Daemon, hadn't rebelled, and summer hall, summer hall probably would have still happened, but even then, Roberts rebellion probably wouldn't have taken place, there would definitely be waaaay more Targs.

More interestingly; what would have happened if Daemon didn't rebel, but summer hall and Robert's rebellion still take place?

[VVSINGOFTHECROSS]

If Daemon, hadn't rebelled, and summer hall, summer hall probably would have still happened, but even then, Roberts rebellion probably wouldn't have taken place, there would definitely be waaaay more Targs.

More interestingly; what would have happened if Daemon didn't rebel, but summer hall and Robert's rebellion still take place?

Would there have been a Summerhall though? Butterflies and all that

[bittersteelsgold]

I'd figure it's still possible, there were no more dragons, they wanted dragons.

[VVSINGOFTHECROSS]

I'd figure it's still possible, there were no more dragons, they wanted dragons.

The Targaryens did, the Blackfyres maybe not so much.

And even then not all Targs wanted dragons

[bittersteelsgold]

True, and Summer hall may not have happened, Aegon IV possibly wouldn't have been king either.

[VVSINGOFTHECROSS]

True, and Summer hall may not have happened, Aegon IV possibly wouldn't have been king either.

Aegon V? Aye.

[bittersteelsgold]

Yeah, typos

[bittersteelsgold]

There may have eventually been a Blackfyre king at some point if he hadn't rebelled.

Quick, someone call Harry Turtledove to write Alternative Westeros History novels. I know this unrelated, but is your username an Integrity reference?