King Robb Stark leaving the Riverlands and going North Discussion

[Chancho]

The Riverlands had up to 20,000 troops battling Tywin at the Fords so they are far from spent. Robb had 7K going North but once he secures the North he would be able to bring much more then 7K back South with him. Why would Mace Tyrell waste his soldiers battling the Riverlords ? he would feel that the Riverlands was Tywin's problem not his so he would only give token support and Tywin's resources took a big beating in the Riverlands so he would not be in a hurry to go back there.

I think they might have 10-12k, not near 20k, Edmure beated Tywin by placing his men well and fighting the right fight... And every Lord would have to defend his lands.. if this 12k army stayed together in one place, they would attack someplace else of course, pillage, raping, foraging (Lannister already show they know this game). Robb would have such a tough road, the neck is no place to transport big armies easily.

[RainGhost]

Robb didn't abandon the riverlands, he made Ser Brynden Tully Warden of the Southern Marches. Don't underestimate the Blackfish. Robb had to retake the north, none of the river lords would begrudge him that. To be honest, once Robb had retaken Moat Cailin, the difficult part was done. Retaking Winterfell would hardly have been difficult and retaking Torrhen's Square and Deepwood Motte would not have required the entire northern army because the ironborn had pretty much abandoned the north by this point. He might have learnt about the wildling situation and been forced to send some men to the Wall but, again, it needn't have been that many. So if Brynden asked for more men, Robb could have sent them. He could even have made common cause with Stannis but that would not have been easy.

All Brynden had to do was hold out until the Purple Wedding, Tywin's death, Margaery's arrest and the Golden Company's invasion distract the Lannisters & Tyrells. Of course, the Tyrells have such a ludicrously large army that they would have had men to spare to send against the river lords (perhaps under Randyll Tarly) but it would not have been the entire army, at least not for a sustained period. The river lords and Brynden know their land and could have used the rivers as a defence, as Edmure did in the Battle of the Fords. Difficult but not impossible. Not to mention the fact that the river lords all hated the Lannisters for burning their fields - that's a pretty good incentive to hold out when there's hope rather than bend the knee.

[In A Coat of Gold]

The Riverlands had up to 20,000 troops battling Tywin at the Fords so they are far from spent. Robb had 7K going North but once he secures the North he would be able to bring much more then 7K back South with him. Why would Mace Tyrell waste his soldiers battling the Riverlords ? he would feel that the Riverlands was Tywin's problem not his so he would only give token support and Tywin's resources took a big beating in the Riverlands so he would not be in a hurry to go back there.

Why would Mace Tyrell not want his grandson (Joff/Margaery's son) to rule over the entire kingdom? He's thrown his lot in and had already sent Randyll Tarly to deal with the Northerners at Duskendale.

[Blackfish Tully]

Why would Mace Tyrell not want his grandson (Joff/Margaery's son) to rule over the entire kingdom? He's thrown his lot in and had already sent Randyll Tarly to deal with the Northerners at Duskendale.

Mace Tyrell is all about low risk and high reward decisions. Invading a fully prepared and battle hardened Riverlands led by one of the most dangerous general in the Seven Kingdoms (Brynden Tully) is not something to be taken lightly especially with winter coming along . Defending Duskendale from a small force that was setup by Bolton is much different then invading the whole Riverlands.

[In A Coat of Gold]

The Riverlands had up to 20,000 troops battling Tywin at the Fords so they are far from spent. Robb had 7K going North but once he secures the North he would be able to bring much more then 7K back South with him. Why would Mace Tyrell waste his soldiers battling the Riverlords ? he would feel that the Riverlands was Tywin's problem not his so he would only give token support and Tywin's resources took a big beating in the Riverlands so he would not be in a hurry to go back there.

They didn't have 20k. Catelyn says Tywin has twice Edmure's numbers, and Tywin lost some at the Green fork, but many on his forced march to try and save Jaime. He at most has 20k, and that's rough. At most Edmure has 10k, but likely less.

[In A Coat of Gold]

Mace Tyrell is all about low risk and high reward decisions. Invading a fully prepared and battle hardened Riverlands led by one of the most dangerous general in the Seven Kingdoms (Brynden Tully) is not something to be taken lightly especially with winter coming along . Defending Duskendale from a small force that was setup by Bolton is much different then invading the whole Riverlands.

How are they fully prepared. Look at all the descriptions from POV characters in that area(Catelyn, Jaime, Arya). The place is a war zone. Darry has been burned out twice. Maidenpool was sacked. Saltpans was sacked even before Rorge and his lot came. The Riverlands are in the worst position, by the time Tywin and Mace smash Stannis.

[In A Coat of Gold]

Once Robb took Moat Calin he would have an easy time driving the Iron Born out of the North . The Iron Born are raiders , holding castles against a siege is not their thing, they would have no chance against the whole North .

Moat Cailin is simply to difficult to take. From Theon in ADWD

One of Lord Ryswell’s sons, Reek knew. Roger, or maybe Rickard. He could not tell the two of them apart. “Is this all of them?” the rider asked from atop a chestnut stallion. “All who weren’t dead, my lord.” “I thought there would be more. We came at them three times, and three times they threw us back.”

That's with the skeleton crew. Robb is going to take some big losses to overrun the castle.

[Chancho]

Brynden Tully is one man, he can't hold the lannnister by himself neither can he be at all places... Riverlands were a mess... Riverlands and Riverun are to very diferent things... Hold an ancient great defensive castle is one thing... The Lannister have all that huge terrain to pick spots to sack, murder, pillage, destroy... if the Riverlords go each own to protect their lands they are damned, if they get all their forces together in one place they are also damned, because Tywin isn't gonna rush this time, i'm sure he remembers the battle of the fords.
And like in a coat of gold quoted: Taking MOAT CAILIN --------------------------------Miles Apart-------------------- A Piece of Cake

[Blackfish Tully]

Moat Cailin is simply to difficult to take. From Theon in ADWD

That's with the skeleton crew. Robb is going to take some big losses to overrun the castle.

Robb would be hitting Moat Cailin from both sides and with the help of crannogmen, he will have no problem getting his men close. We saw that the Iron Born had been worn down by the crannogmen, and were in bad shape and would have fought hard but not been able to do much against an attack from both sides.

[Blackfish Tully]

How are they fully prepared. Look at all the descriptions from POV characters in that area(Catelyn, Jaime, Arya). The place is a war zone. Darry has been burned out twice. Maidenpool was sacked. Saltpans was sacked even before Rorge and his lot came. The Riverlands are in the worst position, by the time Tywin and Mace smash Stannis.

I meant fully prepared in the sense that unlike the War of the Five Kings they know that the enemy is coming and will not be taken by surprise.

[Blackfish Tully]

Brynden Tully is one man, he can't hold the lannnister by himself neither can he be at all places... Riverlands were a mess... Riverlands and Riverun are to very diferent things... Hold an ancient great defensive castle is one thing... The Lannister have all that huge terrain to pick spots to sack, murder, pillage, destroy... if the Riverlords go each own to protect their lands they are damned, if they get all their forces together in one place they are also damned, because Tywin isn't gonna rush this time, i'm sure he remembers the battle of the fords.

And like in a coat of gold quoted: Taking MOAT CAILIN --------------------------------Miles Apart-------------------- A Piece of Cake

Brynden Tully is a great general and would be in command of the Riverland forces and that is massively important . A great commander can be the difference between success and failure. Tywin is now the Hand of the King so he would be staying in Kings Landing so the Lannisster forces would be led by a lessor commander.

Taking Moat Cailin from the South is tough but attacking it from both North and South with the help of the crannogmen would make a big difference.

[aryagonnakill#2]

Well if we assume that Robb takes Moat Cailin with say 1k losses, things actually start getting a lot better for him pretty quickly. There are not many Ironborn in the north, Asha leaves a few men to hold Deepwood Motte but takes most with her to the Kingsmoot, and I believe Dagmer does not have very many men at Torrhens Square. So the Ironborn would be cleared out, and soon start attacking the Reach. Robbs biggest issue would be dealing with the Karstarks and Boltons. Robb cannot let what Ramsay did go unpunished and would at the very least learn about what he did to Lady Hornwood, if not Winterfell itself. However, in the North with a large host Robb has all the power and would I presume sort it out.

Other questions now arise though, such as would Stannis still come north, or would Robb go to Castle Black and fight Mance? The Lannister force that moves into the Riverlands would not have been able to take Riverrun without the Freys, as we know the Blackfish picked the land bare and had 2 years of supplies inside, Jaime comments that the Freys could send supplies but he doesn't want to test his statement. Tarly could take his men north into the Riverlands but what happens when he gets to Riverrun and the Twins and Moat Cailin? Those fortresses would cost insane amounts to take.

All in all Robb would have been in pretty good shape I think considering how fast thing unraveled in Kings Landing.

[In A Coat of Gold]

Well if we assume that Robb takes Moat Cailin with say 1k losses, things actually start getting a lot better for him pretty quickly. There are not many Ironborn in the north, Asha leaves a few men to hold Deepwood Motte but takes most with her to the Kingsmoot, and I believe Dagmer does not have very many men at Torrhens Square. So the Ironborn would be cleared out, and soon start attacking the Reach. Robbs biggest issue would be dealing with the Karstarks and Boltons. Robb cannot let what Ramsay did go unpunished and would at the very least learn about what he did to Lady Hornwood, if not Winterfell itself. However, in the North with a large host Robb has all the power and would I presume sort it out.

Other questions now arise though, such as would Stannis still come north, or would Robb go to Castle Black and fight Mance? The Lannister force that moves into the Riverlands would not have been able to take Riverrun without the Freys, as we know the Blackfish picked the land bare and had 2 years of supplies inside, Jaime comments that the Freys could send supplies but he doesn't want to test his statement. Tarly could take his men north into the Riverlands but what happens when he gets to Riverrun and the Twins and Moat Cailin? Those fortresses would cost insane amounts to take.

All in all Robb would have been in pretty good shape I think considering how fast thing unraveled in Kings Landing.

If the Freys didn't join, Tarly would have brought his force up from Maidenpool to lay siege to Riverrun then. The castle was going to fall. It only mattered how long it would take.

Joffrey dying did wonders for the Lannister/Tyrell alliance. Tywin dying unraveled most of it, and even Cersei took time to bring it down.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Mace Tyrell is all about low risk and high reward decisions..

No he's not. He rebelled against the Crown. Afterwards when Renly was defeated instead of siding with Stannis, like many others did, he became independent and killed Florents.

The idea that he about low risk does not gel with the series. And retaking the Riverlands, with the Northern army gone is not High Risk.

[EastTymor]

Robb would be hitting Moat Cailin from both sides and with the help of crannogmen, he will have no problem getting his men close. We saw that the Iron Born had been worn down by the crannogmen, and were in bad shape and would have fought hard but not been able to do much against an attack from both sides.

If Robb lives, why not Balon too? In that case, there are 10,000 Ironborn in and around Moat Caillin rather than 100 or so.

[GallowsKnight]

Robb needs to secure his home, drive out the invaders. Something easily done once he clears the moat. Then he can raise more soldiers and return to the Riverlands where the Freys, Mallisters, Tullys, Brackens, Blackwood etc have been holed up in their mighty castles, while Lannister supplies dwindle and the Blackfish and the BWB separately have chipped away at them.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Robb needs to secure his home, drive out the invaders. Something easily done once he clears the moat. Then he can raise more soldiers and return to the Riverlands where the Freys, Mallisters, Tullys, Brackens, Blackwood etc have been holed up in their mighty castles, while Lannister supplies dwindle and the Blackfish and the BWB separately have chipped away at them.

That is a pretty rosy picture. Like none of the Riverlords are going to defect when Robb takes his entire army as well as the Freys North with him. No one knows how long he will be gone for or if he will come back at all. Some Riverlords would call it quits, not just sit in their castles while armies sit on their lands.

Harrnehall was taken by hundred or so men with Gregor Clegane before the Red Wedding happened. Darry and Maidenpool also fell around the same time. Raventree Hall had already been taken at the start of the war so I dont see there being too much trouble retaking it.

Riverrun and and Twins are the only two castles that would be able to hold out and Walder Frey is not going to be one of the last men standing.

[Kaibaman]

I have a plan in mind but I don't know if this is very practical or even possible. But could the Blackfish draw the Lannister/Tyrell host towards the Twins, then get the Freys to hold them off while he marches whatever is left of the Riverland forces on the Westerlands? If he could pull this off then for the second time would have to move his forces back to the Westerlands to defend his lands which would take a really long time given how far north he is. And this time Edmure might just be tasked to defend the pass into the Golden Tooth thus forcing the guy to march all the way down south and go through the Reach. If the Blackfish is able to take either Lannisport or Casterly Rock it would be a big win for the Riverlands. Even if he isn't able to pull that off, like Robb he'll still ravage the Westerlands enough to give Tywin a sense of urgency to abandon the Riverlands and defend his homelands, thus giving Robb enough time to deal with the Ironborn and muster up some more forces in the North.

Of course after what Robb did to them last time, they might have beefed up security at the Golden Tooth. Of course if Jason Mallister can spare a few ships, the Blackfish can still hit them by sea.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I have a plan in mind but I don't know if this is very practical or even possible. But could the Blackfish draw the Lannister/Tyrell host towards the Twins, then get the Freys to hold them off

What Freys?

Robbs plan to retake the North involved using the Frey soldiers.

left of the Riverland forces on the Westerlands? If he could pull this off then for the second time would have to move his forces back to the Westerlands to defend his lands which would take a really long time given how far north he is. And this time Edmure might just be tasked to defend the pass into the Golden Tooth thus forcing the guy to march all the way down south and go through the Reach. If the Blackfish is able to take either Lannisport or Casterly Rock it would be a big win for the Riverlands.

Robb had 6,000 in the Riverlands and he said he didnt have enough to threaten Casterly Rock or Lannisport. How many men would the Blackfish need to bring?

Edmure Tully had to pull the majority of his army to defend the Fords against Tywins 20k. That included taking the garrison from the Twins.

Where do the extra troops needed to defend the Riverlands castles, defend the Golden Tooth pass with Edmure and the army needed to take the Rock with Blackfish come from?

[The Wolves]

I will agree its a race against the clock until either Robb is dead or if he's incrediably lucky, the chaos in KL starts. But then again the chaos in KL might not come since if we change on thing, it will affect everything else differently as well.

How would it change what happens in KLs?

The Tyrells were going to kill Joffery either way, Sansa would still escape and Tyrion would be blame which leads to Jaime freeing him and killing Tywin.