King Robb Stark leaving the Riverlands and going North Discussion

[thelittledragonthatcould]

How would it change what happens in KLs?

The Tyrells were going to kill Joffery either way, Sansa would still escape and Tyrion would be blame which leads to Jaime freeing him and killing Tywin.

Tywin would be back in the field bringing the Riverland Houses to submission. When Robb returns to the Riverlands the Red Wedding is already in planning, he doesn't need to bring his army back in the field as he is aware that the Freys are on side and that the war will soon be over. Without that knowledge he needs to take the army outside Kings Landing and end the war as quickly as possible so he can send them away.

Tywin lives. Huge change.

[Lion of the West]

How would it change what happens in KLs?

The Tyrells were going to kill Joffery either way, Sansa would still escape and Tyrion would be blame which leads to Jaime freeing him and killing Tywin.

The littledragonthatcould answered it pretty well. The big effect is that Tywin rides north and while there will be squabbles in KL either it will hold off untill Tywin returns after subjugating the Riverlands or in Tywin's absence. Not to mention that the Tyrells may or may not change their time table as well due to the war already being on.

[Chancho]

Brynden Tully is a great general and would be in command of the Riverland forces and that is massively important . A great commander can be the difference between success and failure. Tywin is now the Hand of the King so he would be staying in Kings Landing so the Lannisster forces would be led by a lessor commander.

Taking Moat Cailin from the South is tough but attacking it from both North and South with the help of the crannogmen would make a big difference.

My point is even great like he is... The Lannisters could attack the places where he and the army won't be, weak spots... they don't have to rush into it like before (Battle of the fords). It's impossible to the riverlanders to defend any large part of the land at the moment and they have to play defensive because of all men to men deficit. It would be a slow execution of the Riverlands, bit by bit.

GREGOR and RANDYLL are made to this kind of thing, riverlords have to bend the knee or disapear like the Darrys.

[The Wolves]

Tywin would be back in the field bringing the Riverland Houses to submission. When Robb returns to the Riverlands the Red Wedding is already in planning, he doesn't need to bring his army back in the field as he is aware that the Freys are on side and that the war will soon be over. Without that knowledge he needs to take the army outside Kings Landing and end the war as quickly as possible so he can send them away.

Tywin lives. Huge change.

Didn't Tywin want the wedding to happen as soon as possible to tie the Tyrells to them? Wouldn't he have waited till Joffery was married and than rode out to the Riverlands?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Didn't Tywin want the wedding to happen as soon as possible to tie the Tyrells to them? Wouldn't he have waited till Joffery was married and than rode out to the Riverlands?

The wedding could be arranged while he was out subduing the Riverlords, he may have still left even with Joffrey dead.

Once Robb wa dead and the Red Wedding happened the Lords Vance, Goodbrook, Bracken and Mooten all sued for peace without the Crowns army coming after them. Tywin knew that the Red Wedding would be a domino affect so did not have to apply the pressure on the Riverlords to get them to submit. Had there been no Red Wedding then pressure would have had to been applied and Tywin would have returned to the field to unite his Grandsons kingdom.

Victory allowed him to stay at Kings Landing as Hand and conduct his business from there. That was how he became vulnerable to Tyrion (and Varys).

[GallowsKnight]

That is a pretty rosy picture. Like none of the Riverlords are going to defect when Robb takes his entire army as well as the Freys North with him. No one knows how long he will be gone for or if he will come back at all. Some Riverlords would call it quits, not just sit in their castles while armies sit on their lands.

Harrnehall was taken by hundred or so men with Gregor Clegane before the Red Wedding happened. Darry and Maidenpool also fell around the same time. Raventree Hall had already been taken at the start of the war so I dont see there being too much trouble retaking it.

Riverrun and and Twins are the only two castles that would be able to hold out and Walder Frey is not going to be one of the last men standing.

It's not rosy at all. The entire Riverlands are desolated for generations. But as long as some resistance in impressive castles like the Twins, Seagard and Riverrun holds, he can come and relieve them.

Better to have defecting Riverlords south of you, than defecting Northerners. Otherwise the war is in an even shitter spot.

[James Arryn]

It's not reflected in the books, but long drawn out sieges was much more the norm than quickly stormed castles in medieval warfare. It was to the point where actually being besieged wasn't necessarily regarded as all that worrying. No commander worth his salt lets himself get caught from behind engaged in a siege...it's an incredibly vulnerable position...so as a result sieges were usually lifted at the slightest hint of enemy activity in the area. Beyond that it was mostly a matter of calculations with both sides holding pretty open hands, and it was more a matter of patience, boredom, hunger and expecially disease.

[TallTyrion]

Defectors would be good for Robb in a weird way. The Riverlords under the most direct threat are south of the trident and quite frankly Robb being king of a riverlands that reaches it's former borders just doesn't make sense.

[TallTyrion]

It's not reflected in the books, but long drawn out sieges was much more the norm than quickly stormed castles in medieval warfare. It was to the point where actually being besieged wasn't necessarily regarded as all that worrying. No commander worth his salt lets himself get caught from behind engaged in a siege...it's an incredibly vulnerable position...so as a result sieges were usually lifted at the slightest hint of enemy activity in the area. Beyond that it was mostly a matter of calculations with both sides holding pretty open hands, and it was more a matter of patience, boredom, hunger and expecially disease.

That's one problem I have with the start of Tywin's campaign in the Riverlands, he runs through a bunch of castles in what seems like only a couple of weeks. Just seems a bit unrealistic.

[James Arryn]

That's one problem I have with the start of Tywin's campaign in the Riverlands, he runs through a bunch of castles in what seems like only a couple of weeks. Just seems a bit unrealistic.

It's about my biggest complaint overall...not nearly enough sieges and those all very quick...Storm's End holding out for a year is OMG, whereas in RL sieges could go on for decades WITHOUT the benefit of magically invulnerable castles. But I chalk some of this down to the 5 year deal; it's the kind of detail GRRM knows and usually likes to illustrate. On the other hand battle commanders seem to fight and kill each other with remarkable regularity, whereas in RL it's almost unheard of.

[TallTyrion]

It's about my biggest complaint overall...not nearly enough sieges and those all very quick...Storm's End holding out for a year is OMG, whereas in RL sieges could go on for decades WITHOUT the benefit of magically invulnerable castles. But I chalk some of this down to the 5 year deal; it's the kind of detail GRRM knows and usually likes to illustrate. On the other hand battle commanders seem to fight and kill each other with remarkable regularity, whereas in RL it's almost unheard of.

Yeah that's a case of interesting storytelling over realism which is fine in my opinion. And for the most part I'm fine with the sieges being much shorter than in real life, just for the sake of the story progressing, but some of the Riverland castles yielding immediately is just nonsense. Raventree Hall, for example, surrenders immediately just because Tytos Blackwood isn't there.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Yeah that's a case of interesting storytelling over realism which is fine in my opinion. And for the most part I'm fine with the sieges being much shorter than in real life, just for the sake of the story progressing, but some of the Riverland castles yielding immediately is just nonsense. Raventree Hall, for example, surrenders immediately just because Tytos Blackwood isn't there.

Not just Tytos but likley the majority of the Blackwood army. Same goes for Harrenhal.

Edmure has called his banners to Riverrun and are engaging with a Lannister army lead by Jaime. You also have Gregor with a smaller band of men causing chaos throughout the Riverlands which would still have to be dealt with by the remaining military not with Edmure. This would leave those two Castles sufficiently weakened for a 20k Tywin army.

We actually dont see how easy/hard it was for Tywin to take Raventree Hall and Harrenhal or how long it took. It seems releativley simple because we learn about it in a brief sentence.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

It's about my biggest complaint overall...not nearly enough sieges and those all very quick...Storm's End holding out for a year is OMG, whereas in RL sieges could go on for decades WITHOUT the benefit of magically invulnerable castles. But I chalk some of this down to the 5 year deal; it's the kind of detail GRRM knows and usually likes to illustrate. On the other hand battle commanders seem to fight and kill each other with remarkable regularity, whereas in RL it's almost unheard of.

Years, certainly, but decades? Any examples?

[James Arryn]

Years, certainly, but decades? Any examples?

Candia, off the top of my head. Crete, over 20 years.

[RainGhost]

It's not rosy at all. The entire Riverlands are desolated for generations. But as long as some resistance in impressive castles like the Twins, Seagard and Riverrun holds, he can come and relieve them.

Better to have defecting Riverlords south of you, than defecting Northerners. Otherwise the war is in an even shitter spot.

Exactly, defecting northern Lords is worse than defecting river Lords. Besides, the river Lords would not defect as easily as some people seem to think. They didn't rebel against the Iron Throne for the Starks, they were forced into rebellion when the Lannisters invaded their lands. Bending the knee to them after they burned their lands just makes them look weak.

Another thing to bear in mind is that Arya would have been found. They could have renewed her betrothal to Elmar (although perhaps this would be a bad idea - I don't think anyone can expect the Freys to forgive 2 broken betrothals). It would be a morale boost anyway. Also, once north there's a good chance Robb finds out about Bran and Rickon. If Rickon can be found, even better. This complicates things because even if Robb dies, the North at least would still have Starks to support.

[Blackfish Tully]

The wedding could be arranged while he was out subduing the Riverlords, he may have still left even with Joffrey dead.

Once Robb wa dead and the Red Wedding happened the Lords Vance, Goodbrook, Bracken and Mooten all sued for peace without the Crowns army coming after them. Tywin knew that the Red Wedding would be a domino affect so did not have to apply the pressure on the Riverlords to get them to submit. Had there been no Red Wedding then pressure would have had to been applied and Tywin would have returned to the field to unite his Grandsons kingdom.

Victory allowed him to stay at Kings Landing as Hand and conduct his business from there. That was how he became vulnerable to Tyrion (and Varys).

I doubt that Tywin would be leading the forces against the Riverlands. He would not want to leave things in Kings Landing in somebodies else's hands. He does not trust the Tyrells or his own daughter and has zero confidence in Joffrey. Stannis is still alive and he has to deal with Dorne and everything else involved in rebuilding the Kingdom and would not want anybody else to be making the big decisions except him.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I doubt that Tywin would be leading the forces against the Riverlands. He would not want to leave things in Kings Landing in somebodies else's hands. He does not trust the Tyrells or his own daughter and has zero confidence in Joffrey. Stannis is still alive and he has to deal with Dorne and everything else involved in rebuilding the Kingdom and would not want anybody else to be making the big decisions except him.

He lead them during the war and the war was only over because he knew Robb was soon to be defeated and the Riverlands would crumble.

The Riverlands is a huge area on his doorstop inbetween the West and Kings Landing. He would need to conquer them.

[In A Coat of Gold]

He lead them during the war and the war was only over because he knew Robb was soon to be defeated and the Riverlands would crumble.

The Riverlands is a huge area on his doorstop inbetween the West and Kings Landing. He would need to conquer them.

He led them during the Riverlands campaign because he thought Cersei and Tyrion could coy Joffrey. He was wrong. He sees how incompetent they are at ruling.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

He led them during the Riverlands campaign because he thought Cersei and Tyrion could coy Joffrey. He was wrong. He sees how incompetent they are at ruling.

He only gets to see that because he spends a lot of time at Kings Landing after the Battle of Blackwater. This doesnt happen if the Red Wedding is not in place.

[In A Coat of Gold]

He only gets to see that because he spends a lot of time at Kings Landing after the Battle of Blackwater. This doesnt happen if the Red Wedding is not in place.

He already knows that Cersei can't coy Joff. He sends Tyrion to hold down the fort til he arrives. He has no pretensions about whether Tyrion could rule effectively.