[TWOW Spoilers] Alayne I, v. 2

[Doorlocks]

A few thoughts upon further reading on what LF's really trying to achieve...

1. Harrold Hardyng/Harry the Heir/The Young Falcon

After reading through this chapter a third time, I'm more sure that Petyr's plan is not actually to back Harry. Harrold Hardyng's entire character screams doomed red herring. Even his names sounds like 'herring.' Harry is the person that Petyr's enemies want in charge, someone they've been indulging and grooming for years. Bronze Yohn knighted him for little to nothing, Lady Waynwood lets him run through women and takes care of the consequences. He has Jon Arryn's look, Robert Baratheon's behavior and reproductive system, and a rip-off of Robb Stark's nickname. He's perfect for the Lords of the Vale, which to me means that he's bad for Petyr.

2. Robert Arryn/Sweetrobin

Robert, on the other hand, is the one that everyone underestimates. He is weak, sickly, paranoid, and just plain weird. The quickest and easiest way for Petyr to solidify his position as Lord Protector, however, is simply to show that under his care, Sweetrobin grew stronger and more confident.

Robert already wants to marry Alayne. Their continuous close association is something set up by Petyr. Only the plan to marry her to Harry is standing in his way, and ostensibly her bastard birth. Robert already doesn't trust Harry and believes he is waiting to take his Lordship. I think it's likely that his new awareness of how others perceive him and his animosity towards Harry are generated by Petyr as well. Robert is also already jealous of Harry and Alanye. He is specifically mentioned as staring at Alayne/Harry while they danced.

At the same time, Petyr seems to be purposefully generating speculation about her identity by highlighting her hair during the feast. That secret does not seem long for this world, which is good because a lot of people seem to know it already. So you have a Robert Arryn who's jealous about Alayne's time spent with Harry, afraid of losing Alayne to Harry, he's paranoid about losing his Lordship to Harry, and what Petyr needs most in the world is for this weak boy to stand up for himself and show some strength.

3. The Recreated Duel

Like others have posited already, I too think we'll be seeing some sort of recreation of the famous Petyr/Cat/Brandon situation. I doubt it will be an actual physical confrontation, and I disagree that Petyr's proxy is meant to be Harry, but I do see it coming. Following from my arguments above, I believe that the obvious proxy for Petyr will remain the obvious proxy. Sweetrobin will be a successful Petyr, Harry will be a defeated Brandon, and Sansa will be a Cat that ended up with the "right" person. "Petyr" will be successful on multiple levels, both avenging an old personal wound and advancing his plan in the present.

My guess is that Sansa's identity will be figured out during the Tourney, as well as a version of Petyr's promise to help her retake Winterfell. Harry and the Waynwoods will push for a confirmation of the betrothal, while other families try to put forward their own suitors for Sansa. Lord Robert Arryn puts an end to the clamor by proposing again to Sansa, promising to use all the Vale's power to return her to her rightful place as Lady of Winterfell.

This helps Petyr by securing his Wardship of Robert while seemingly undermining the protest that he'll have too much control over Robert. After all, Robert's first sign of strength was overriding a contract and plan Petyr publicly supported.

[Colonel Green]

I have a hard time believing that Littlefinger's plan hinges on Robert. Everything we've seen indicates he feels deep-seated contempt for Robert, he hasn't done anything to build the kid up at all, and, frankly, Robert is not a figure that anybody would feel particularly inclined to follow. Everything he said when introducing the Harry the Heir idea is basically true in that regard.

[Harry the Hair]

I have a hard time believing that Littlefinger's plan hinges on Robert. Everything we've seen indicates he feels deep-seated contempt for Robert, he hasn't done anything to build the kid up at all, and, frankly, Robert is not a figure that anybody would feel particularly inclined to follow. Everything he said when introducing the Harry the Heir idea is basically true in that regard.

True... but would they follow Sansa if she were married to Robert? The problem with Harry is that he is not as easy to manipulate as Sweetrobin is. It's possible that this whole tourney is a set up to show off how much Robert loves Alayne and hates Harry. So that if Alayne were to marry Robert no one could say that Sweetrobin is being forced in to this marriage.

[Colonel Green]

The problem with Harry is that he is not as easy to manipulate as Sweetrobin is.

Well, Littlefinger doesn't so much manipulate Robert as ignore him, for the most part, because he's a bratty little kid, and it's easy to do that.

I think people seriously overstate the challenges the manipulating Harry presents to Littlefinger. He spend his time in King's Landing manipulating far, far more experienced figures, culminating in him leading Ned Stark around by the nose for most of AGOT, even though Ned didn't much like him and knew he was corrupt and bragging about having banged Ned's wife.

And in this chapter, he's able to predict Harry's social behaviour more or less exactly, and given Sansa accurate instructions for how to play him. He really doesn't seem to be posing any particular challenges in that department. Plus, the stuff Littlefinger seems to want to promise Harry (martial glory, more land to rule) is exactly what an ambitious young knight like him would want.

[juanml82]

I have a hard time believing that Littlefinger's plan hinges on Robert. Everything we've seen indicates he feels deep-seated contempt for Robert, he hasn't done anything to build the kid up at all, and, frankly, Robert is not a figure that anybody would feel particularly inclined to follow. Everything he said when introducing the Harry the Heir idea is basically true in that regard.

LF said something about keeping people confused about his true motivations. If he's really supporting Robert (and specially if Robert is indeed his son, which seems to be the case), it's perfectly within character that he will appear to disdain the boy.

But yes, there is the problem that Robert isn't an inspiring leader and he has some very unhealthy Mad King/Joffrey vibes. But Littlefinger probably cares little for the later and, for the former, Littlefinger himself isn't an inspiring leader and see where he got.

The other issue regarding Robert positively reacting to Sansa's reveal is that he will feel betrayed by his cousin, as she flat out lied to his face. He will be angry, not happy. And I don't see a way an eight years old can stand up to Harry, even if the eight years old is the Lord.

Finally, there is the issue of trying to influence Robert's decision making when the kid always tells who said something. Of course, it may be that LF indirectly fed Robert the infodump he throws about Harry's intentions, but does LF proceed beyond that? Also, Sansa believes Robert was drugged for the feast, but she doesn't know for sure. It's possible that Littlefinger had - through someone else - reassured him regarding his fears and jealousy and that, instead of sweetsleep, is preventing him from going into a fit. But Robert doesn't keep secrets. Whoever told him something to keep him calm, he will probably tell. Also, a small thing, wouldn't Robert be able to dance with Alayne, even if it's looked as a kid's game? He doesn't attempt to.

"Just as Petyr had promised, the young knights flocked around her, vying for her favor"

She seems to be giving the matter some serious consideration. She dances with most of the candidates you listed; Ben Coldwater, Andrew Tollett, Ser Byron, Ser Morgarth, Shadrich, Ser Albar Royce, Myranda’s 'stout dull brother', Lord Nestor’s heir, the Sunderlands, Uther Shett, Ser Targon, Ser Roland Waynwood, Ser Wallace and finally Harry the arse.

But her final line...

...suggests that out of all of those candidates that were vying for her attention, she still hasn't found what she is looking for. As Le Cygne said, this is finally about her and she seems to be telling us her choice is none of those, including Harry. I wonder if there is a surprise around the corner and it will be someone else entirely.

As for the bolded, this is powerful statement of intent. She will find someone and in considering the bigger picture, it gives me hope that she will eventually find what she is looking for by the end.

If she did happen to bestow her favor to one of the candidates she dances with, I hope it is Ser Wallace. Firstly, this would tie-in with kind, compassionate Sansa of old who roots for the underdog. I could also imagine this giving Ser Wallace a huge confidence boost and as a result he could go on to perform very well in the tourney. This would also be sending Harry a message that she would rather give her favor to a horsefaced, stuttering third son rather than an arse like him.

That is very true, it is LF's advice, but she doesn't seem to be handing her favor to just anyone for the purpose of playing hard to get with Harry. She seems to be giving serious consideration to the matter and, the fact that she is unsure who she was going to give it to, tells us where her head is at the moment-she doesn't know what she wants when given the choice, but i liked her assertion that she will eventually. Yes, it will be very interesting to see who she chooses.

If you're looking for a romantic decision here, I wouldn't put my hopes up. She's scheming, and whoever she chooses will be a calculated move to achieve her goals... which are to follow Littlefinger's plan, for whatever reason.

[ChillyPolly]

After reading through this chapter a third time, I'm more sure that Petyr's plan is not actually to back Harry. Harrold Hardyng's entire character screams doomed red herring.

While I agree with you about Harrold, I don't think that necessarily says anything about Petyr. Petyr, and his plans, may themselves be doomed. Just because Petyr loves to prance around tittering "tee hee, everything is proceding in accordance with my evil plans", does not mean it is necessarily going to turn out to be the case, when all of the chips fall.

[juanml82]

Well, Littlefinger doesn't so much manipulate Robert as ignore him, for the most part, because he's a bratty little kid, and it's easy to do that.

I think people seriously overstate the challenges the manipulating Harry presents to Littlefinger. He spend his time in King's Landing manipulating far, far more experienced figures, culminating in him leading Ned Stark around by the nose for most of AGOT, even though Ned didn't much like him and knew he was corrupt and bragging about having banged Ned's wife.

And in this chapter, he's able to predict Harry's social behaviour more or less exactly, and given Sansa accurate instructions for how to play him. He really doesn't seem to be posing any particular challenges in that department. Plus, the stuff Littlefinger seems to want to promise Harry (martial glory, more land to rule) is exactly what an ambitious young knight like him would want.

But he can manipulate Ned because Ned isn't going to remove him from the Small Council and trusts him - same with Cersei and Tywin. It's Tyrion who doesn't trust him but, again, Tyrion doesn't dare to fire him.

One of Harry's first moves as Lord of the Eyre is probably to send Littlefinger to Harrenhall. How is he going to manipulate Harry or Sansa from there?

[James Arryn]

I think HtH sounds like young James Marsden. Or that fast & furious guy who died. (I try and cast people all the time, sorry)

[Colonel Green]

One of Harry's first moves as Lord of the Eyre is probably to send Littlefinger to Harrenhall.

Why? If he's Harry's father-in-law, and presumably well-loved by him in that capacity, why would he be sent away? Particularly if he's proposing ambitious wars of conquest that strike Harry's favour?

[James Arryn]

Why? If he's Harry's father-in-law, and presumably well-loved by him in that capacity, why would he be sent away? Particularly if he's proposing ambitious wars of conquest that strike Harry's favour?

What about in-laws means 'well-loved' in your world?

[Colonel Green]

What about in-laws means 'well-loved' in your world?

The point being that Littlefinger intends for Harry to like him, and he's remarkably effective at that sort of thing. Observe how he's charmed the Vale's nobility, to a great extent.

[James Arryn]

The point being that Littlefinger intends for Harry to like him, and he's remarkably effective at that sort of thing. Observe how he's charmed the Vale's nobility, to a great extent.

I don't think anyone in the Vale likes him, aside from Sansa. Lysa did, obviously, but there was a lot of history. LF's whole scchtick is to constantly needle people with unfunny 'aren't I clever' one-liners. I think he's the definition of a 'don't like him but he's a good businessman/makes me money' type.

[juanml82]

The point being that Littlefinger intends for Harry to like him, and he's remarkably effective at that sort of thing. Observe how he's charmed the Vale's nobility, to a great extent.

Does he? So far he hasn't interacted with him at all. The Bronze Yohn is far more influential to Harry so far, and we know what he whispered him about Littlefinger

[rozemarijn]

About the picture: George does his site himself doesn't he? So he picked the picture as well. The last one with Mercy was simply Braavos, this is a person like with Arianne.

I was wondering why this one and if we might get something out of it as well: there is some symbolism. She is dressed in the grey and white off her house bit is bound around her waist with Littlefinger his mockingbird. Her legs look like an armour and the colour of her hair is not dyed.

It really pictures a Stark, bound by Littlefinger, for the moment.

[Harry the Hair]

Does he? So far he hasn't interacted with him at all. The Bronze Yohn is far more influential to Harry so far, and we know what he whispered him about Littlefinger

It looks like LF intends to use Alayne in order to break Harry's prejudice against him. Once that happens the two will meet, I'm sure he'll be as sweet as molasses to him then.

[Harry the Hair]

About the picture: George does his site himself doesn't he? So he picked the picture as well. The last one with Mercy was simply Braavos, this is a person like with Arianne.

I was wondering why this one and if we might get something out of it as well: there is some symbolism. She is dressed in the grey and white off her house bit is bound around her waist with Littlefinger his mockingbird. Her legs look like an armour and the colour of her hair is not dyed.

It really pictures a Stark, bound by Littlefinger, for the moment.

I felt like the color palette used for her clothing was meant to reflect house Arryn colors. But the red hair is quite odd... And what was the hairnet she wore? Was it the same one that carried the Strangler?

[HexMachina]

About the picture: George does his site himself doesn't he? So he picked the picture as well. The last one with Mercy was simply Braavos, this is a person like with Arianne.

I was wondering why this one and if we might get something out of it as well: there is some symbolism. She is dressed in the grey and white off her house bit is bound around her waist with Littlefinger his mockingbird. Her legs look like an armour and the colour of her hair is not dyed.

It really pictures a Stark, bound by Littlefinger, for the moment.

I'm sure it's a lovely picture, but I just can't get past her feet.

Clearly, it's symbolising clumsiness. You know the saying about having two left feet and all that... :)

[Colonel Green]

I don't think anyone in the Vale likes him, aside from Sansa. Lysa did, obviously, but there was a lot of history. LF's whole scchtick is to constantly needle people with unfunny 'aren't I clever' one-liners. I think he's the definition of a 'don't like him but he's a good businessman/makes me money' type.

We're told he does have several friends, like Grafton and Lyonel Corbray, and he's won more people over to his side.

I think you're letting your own prejudices against his sense of humour influence your judgement. ;)

I'm sure it's a lovely picture, but I just can't get past her feet.

Clearly, it's symbolising clumsiness. You know the saying about having two left feet and all that... :)

I was baffled by that at first, but then I realized that her legs aren't actually supposed to be crossed. Which makes it an awkward pose, but there it is.

[James Arryn]

I'm sure it's a lovely picture, but I just can't get past her feet.

Thank God it's not just me. That's hobbit territory there.

[James Arryn]

We're told he does have several friends, like Grafton and Lyonel Corbray, and he's won more people over to his side.

I think you're letting your own prejudices against his sense of humour influence your judgement. ;)

More than possible, though I definitely don't think Corbray counts. He'd been bought, not charmed.

I was baffled by that at first, but then I realized that her legs aren't actually supposed to be crossed. Which makes it an awkward pose, but there it is.

It's more than just the pose. It's like that Seinfeld where the woman has man/werewolf hands.