How far will Aegon get?

[Isobel Harper]

The guy who has great skill with a bow and he was named after another guy who also had great skill with a bow and killed the First Blackfyre in the battlefield.

Brynden Tully/Blackfish?

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

One of the first things that will happen is that both Cersei and Mace will blame the Dornish for the assassinations (at least on the outside). Varys told that it will happen. Mace already has irrational Dornish hatred. Maybe he will come to believe that the Dornish are secretly hiding Tyrion as Cersei also suspected.

Margaery's trial will be postponed and Cersei will even suggest taking the trial out of the hands of the Faith if Mace defeats the pretender. After all, if there is no other pretender remaining, the Faith cannot bless someone else other than Tommen.

mmm.. i think Cersei will do what she does best, blame tyrion.. she will think he is teaming up with the Tyrells (she will remember the gardener coin in Rugens cell), and she think the assasinations were a coup.. since mace will take the regency..

Ser Kevan tried to rise, but the strength had left him. He could not feel his legs.

“I thought the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Lord Tywin, why not that? Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp.

why would the trial be postponed? if it were, Mace wouldn´t march against Aegon.. he said so many times:

Let the castle pass from one pretender to another, why should that trouble us? I shall recapture it after my daughter’s innocence is proved.”

we must destroy Connington and his pretender now, before Daenerys Stormborn can come west.”

Mace Tyrell crossed his arms. “I mean to do just that, ser. After the trials.”

he won´t leave the capital until his daughters innocence is proven... if the trial is postponed, then so is the Tyrell march against aegon.

[Mithras]

Brynden Tully/Blackfish?

:thumbsup:

mmm.. i think Cersei will do what she does best, blame tyrion.. she will think he is teaming up with the Tyrells (she will remember the gardener coin in Rugens cell), and she think the assasinations were a coup.. since mace will take the regency.

Remember the plan to kill Trystane?

Prince Doran took a jagged breath. “Dorne still has friends at court. Friends who tell us things we were not meant to know. This invitation Cersei sent us is a ruse. Trystane is never meant to reach King’s Landing. On the road back, somewhere in the kingswood, Ser Balon’s party will be attacked by outlaws, and my son will die. I am asked to court only so that I may witness this attack with my own eyes and thereby absolve the queen of any blame. Oh, and these outlaws? They will be shouting, ‘Halfman, Halfman,’ as they attack. Ser Balon may even catch a quick glimpse of the Imp, though no one else will.”

“Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen."

I don't think Varys is right about Cersei or the Tyrells here. I think both Cersei and the Tyrells will blame the Dornishmen with the connivance of the Imp. Cersei will see that her plan to kill Trystane was reported to Doran by a spy and in return, the Dornish must have retaliated.

why would the trial be postponed? if it were, Mace wouldn´t march against Aegon.. he said so many times:

Someone will convince Mace that fAegon has to be removed ASAP before Dorne joins him or the HS blesses him. That is why they cannot threaten the Faith at this moment.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

I don't think Varys is right about Cersei or the Tyrells here.

why? one has to remember Cerseis main fear is Maggy´s prophecy.. Her main antagonist is Margaery.. and the tyrells.. If Kevan was killed with a Crossbow, Cersei will think Tyrion did it.. And Since the clear winner from killing Pycelle and Kevan will be the tyrells, then the answer will be obvious to her... Tyrion is working with House Tyrell.. she will remember the Gardener coin...

I´m sure someone will blame the dornish, just not her.

I think both Cersei and the Tyrells will blame the Dornishmen with the connivance of the Imp. Cersei will see that her plan to kill Trystane was reported to Doran by a spy and in return, the Dornish must have retaliated.

How can she see that? and what blame would they have for trying to avoid having trystane killed?

i think, on the contrary..Cersei in her madness will see the Dornish and their well known mutual hate with House Tyrell as possible allies to take power back and be rid from Margaery forever..

Someone will convince Mace that fAegon has to be removed ASAP before Dorne joins him or the HS blesses him. That is why they cannot threaten the Faith at this moment.

Who will?

Mace doesn´t think much in terms of strategy.. or politics,.. his main concern is his daughters safety.. he won´t have his trump card (his army), leave the capital before his daughter is free from all risk.

theres plenty of clues and foreshadowing, that mace will use said army to save her.. in doing so, he will spill blood in the sacred Sept of Baleor,..

I don´t see here a timming problem.. Cersei I: Cersei´s trial

Cersei II: Marg´s trial.

after which, Mace will be able to send his army against (f)Aegon... probably after the news of SE fall reach the city.

[In A Coat of Gold]

Aegon is not marrying Arianne. JonCon has already shot that down. They have taken the Dornish alliance for granted, as they should. Aegon is Doran's own nephew and their interests align.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Aegon is not marrying Arianne. JonCon has already shot that down. They have taken the Dornish alliance for granted, as they should. Aegon is Doran's own nephew and their interests align.

Jon Connington thinks Aegon should remain single, until dany arrives Westeros.

What happens when they learn she "died" in meereen?.. especially if their conquest is going great?.. Jon Con is dying and Aegon is a teenager that risks everything for a quick win...

[The Dames do Moan]

I go back and forth on whether I think Dorne will side for him and back and forth on how long they will stay.

I do think he will be in good position to attack KL, he will complete a circle around it without anymore additional fighting (at around griffins roost and other Stormlands now). He will take Crackclaw point who are loyal to the Targs and Harrenhall because of Ser Bonfier Hasty (loved (f)Aegon's grandmama and the faith will side with him). That just leaves the southwest and they may have "friends" down there.

With that being said, they either don't take KL due to Dany or some unseen event yet or they do take it but with little fighting because the main characters there have died or fled.

[In A Coat of Gold]

Jon Connington thinks Aegon should remain single, until dany arrives Westeros.

What happens when they learn she "died" in meereen?.. especially if their conquest is going great?.. Jon Con is dying and Aegon is a teenager that risks everything for a quick win...

How long will it take for that information to disseminate? Certainly longer than it will take Arianne to reach Aegon at Storm's End.

[The Holy Goat]

I think Aegon will get quite far and prove himself more competent than many think. I'm also not usre that either he or Dany need to die for either side to win the Second Dance of Dragons.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

How long will it take for that information to disseminate? Certainly longer than it will take Arianne to reach Aegon at Storm's End.

News from meereen don´t take so long to reach westeros as they did from Qarth. Think of AFFC prologue.

“The tales are not the same,” insisted Armen. “Dragons in Asshai, dragons in Qarth, dragons in Meereen, Dothraki dragons, dragons freeing slaves . . . each telling differs from the last.”

Remember Daenerys "died" in chapter 52 ADWD (out of 71).. so the slavers have been spreading rumors for some time..

i think news of dany´s death will reach westeros before we are done with half Twow..

Arianne III could very well be it.

[scotcat]

I think he may surprise people in how far he'll manage to get.

Ultimately, how far he'll go will be determined by whether or not he really is Aegon. It'll all be for nought if he's a fake.

[Tharvot]

Aegon may get all the way to King's Landing and even take it. I think he will face very little resistance doing so, too...might even be celebrated in the streets when he arrives. However, I think his reign there will be short lived. Once Jon Con goes away, his reign unravels...especially if greyscale starts running rampant.

[Crippledtank]

He'll win the Iron Throne for a short time. One of several to do so before we reach the end of the story.

That one quote from GRRM boils my core because.

In 5 books we've had 3 kings (on the IT) Robert Joffrey and tommen.

Now considering those "changes" in the crown were just heirs claiming their birthright I find it hard to believe that we could have several more legitamate monarchs have any sort of rule in 2 books.

Also now when reading the later books I'll be feeling them feels you get when you're playing pass the parcel.... (You know the music stops soon but you just handed the parcel over) :(

Basically the next 2 or 3 kings we have I'll expect swift or immediate downfalls. (I'm assuming ASOIAF will be renamed "a rainbow of weddings")

Wee had the RW and PW so all we need is blue green maybe orange and a few others

Also I don't see many MAJOR events happening to switch the monarchy around so much (westeros is running out of warriors) not to mention we still have a horde of cold zombies that I hope attack before the final chapter.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Aegon may get all the way to King's Landing and even take it. I think he will face very little resistance doing so, too...might even be celebrated in the streets when he arrives. However, I think his reign there will be short lived. Once Jon Con goes away, his reign unravels...especially if greyscale starts running rampant.

Cersei: I will be queen, though?

Maggy: Aye. Queen you shall be... until there comes another, younger and more beautiful, to cast you down and take all that you hold dea

Cersei must be defeated by a queen... thats the main reason why i think Aegon will never take KL.. thats reserved for dany.

When dany marches towards KL, Cersei will finally understand she lost (just after myrcella is dead), and she will activate the wildfire trap, destroying the city... then we will get the scene from HBO in which dany walks into the destroyed throne room..

but this only works as long as it is dany, not aegon that in the end defeat Cersei.. a queen, not a king.

[Isobel Harper]

Cersei must be defeated by a queen... thats the main reason why i think Aegon will never take KL.. thats reserved for dany.

When dany marches towards KL, Cersei will finally understand she lost (just after myrcella is dead), and she will activate the wildfire trap, destroying the city... then we will get the scene from HBO in which dany walks into the destroyed throne room..

but this only works as long as it is dany, not aegon that in the end defeat Cersei.. a queen, not a king.

Cersei: I will be queen, though?

Maggy: Aye. Queen you shall be... until there comes another, younger and more beautiful, to cast you down and take all that you hold dear

The lad was shorter than Duck, but his lanky build suggested that he had not yet come into his full growth. This beardless boy could have any maiden in the Seven Kingdoms, blue hair or no. Those eyes of his would melt them. Like his sire, Young Griff had blue eyes, but where the father's eyes were pale, the son's were dark. By lamplight they turned black, and in the light of dusk they seemed purple. His eyelashes were as long as any woman's.

Wouldn't it be ironic if it wasn't a queen? :P

[Tharvot]

Cersei must be defeated by a queen... thats the main reason why i think Aegon will never take KL.. thats reserved for dany.

When dany marches towards KL, Cersei will finally understand she lost (just after myrcella is dead), and she will activate the wildfire trap, destroying the city... then we will get the scene from HBO in which dany walks into the destroyed throne room..

but this only works as long as it is dany, not aegon that in the end defeat Cersei.. a queen, not a king.

Doesn't say anywhere that it must be a queen that takes her down. Just someone younger and more beautiful. Could be Aegon, who by all rights has been described as very good looking. Maybe Arienne (who I presume will be with Aegon)...Margaery, Sansa, and Dany are all the ones that everyone thinks about with this prophecy. My guess is it will be someone we never considered before.

[aryagonnakill#2]

The Tyrells are not the clear winners of Pycelle and Kevins assassination, Cersei is. Kevin brought Lannister men to the city, and Gregors men returned shortly thereafter. She now has probably around 200 men. We also hear that Cersei dotes on Tommen all day, hardly leaving his side, so she will be the first to be able to put a piece of paper in front of him for him to stamp naming her regent/hand. We already know she got back into power somehow, so that seems like the most likely way that happened imo.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Doesn't say anywhere that it must be a queen that takes her down. Just someone younger and more beautiful. Could be Aegon, who by all rights has been described as very good looking. Maybe Arienne (who I presume will be with Aegon)...Margaery, Sansa, and Dany are all the ones that everyone thinks about with this prophecy. My guess is it will be someone we never considered before.

queen you shall be until until there comes another

Another what?

to me that implies that she is talking about another queen..

[bb1180]

That one quote from GRRM boils my core because.

In 5 books we've had 3 kings (on the IT) Robert Joffrey and tommen.

Now considering those "changes" in the crown were just heirs claiming their birthright I find it hard to believe that we could have several more legitamate monarchs have any sort of rule in 2 books.

Also now when reading the later books I'll be feeling them feels you get when you're playing pass the parcel.... (You know the music stops soon but you just handed the parcel over) :(

Basically the next 2 or 3 kings we have I'll expect swift or immediate downfalls. (I'm assuming ASOIAF will be renamed "a rainbow of weddings")

Wee had the RW and PW so all we need is blue green maybe orange and a few others

Also I don't see many MAJOR events happening to switch the monarchy around so much (westeros is running out of warriors) not to mention we still have a horde of cold zombies that I hope attack before the final chapter.

Who said anything about legitimate? The whole thing is coming unglued and pretty soon, it looks to become something of a free-for-all. Rapid succession is typical in times of political and social upheaval. A classic example would be the Year of the Four Emperors in ancient Rome, which almost tore the whole thing apart.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

The Tyrells are not the clear winners of Pycelle and Kevins assassination, Cersei is. Kevin brought Lannister men to the city, and Gregors men returned shortly thereafter. She now has probably around 200 men. We also hear that Cersei dotes on Tommen all day, hardly leaving his side, so she will be the first to be able to put a piece of paper in front of him for him to stamp naming her regent/hand. We already know she got back into power somehow, so that seems like the most likely way that happened imo.

Sure, now there are some lannister swords in the Capital.. but MT has 40k under his command. A piece of paper does not give you power, as Ned Stark learned.

More likely than that.. the new Regency will be choosen as the last one was, by the small council.. people who actually have real offices and power.. the queen has zero influence after the walk.

Who will obey her orders?

At some point she will recover power, but not before some good moves on her part... and not before the Tyrell army leaves the capital.