Littlefinger was lying about the Purple Wedding

[Ygrain]

snip

re: a signal

Marge was definitely on it, remember how calmly she dismissed Sansa's worries that Joffrey might hurt her or that Loras would get himself, and all the Tyrells, in trouble, trying to prevent it. Sansa wondered how come that Marge didn't see it that way and blamed her own presumed stupidity.

And, there was something that could have been a signal: Rains of Castamere. Olenna mentions it before Marge and Joff go cut the pie and it is a remark that one wouldn't utter by chance but that wouldn't raise any suspicions as it was bound to be played many times at a Lannister wedding. It would be a signal for the poisoner to carry out the plan and for Marge not to drink from now on.

[TerrorVoid]

Not sure if it was mentioned, but in books LF didn't conspired with Tyrells, He lead them into this plot, acting, as always, from behind the scenes. While Tyrells thought that they are acting on their own.

[Nerevanin]

Exactly, making Sansa the poisoner is imaginary thinking, just like Littlefinger somehow knowing that the Joff-Tyrion spat over the jousting would involve the chalice, or that Garlen or anyone else could reach over the top of the chalice without anyone seeing, least of all Tyrion and Sansa, or half-a-hundred other things that people dream up to fit their preferred conclusion.

The only explanation that conforms to the text and does not require a bunch of made-up theories is that Littlefinger and Lady O conspired to kill Tyrion for the reasons above, and that Lady O palmed the crystal from the hairnet and placed it in Tyrion's pie just before it was served.

If we agree that Tyrion was to target and not Joffrey (which seems more and more likely as I'm thinking about it), then I say that your theory is plausible, no over-imagination. Maybe it was already discussed in previous posts and I didn't noticed it, but would be even possible to put the poison in the pie? I'm not talking about the act of putting it in it, that isn't that hard, I mean the fact that the poison was in the form of a dark hard stone-like thing. I suppose that it wouldn't be possible to bite into it without thinking that you bit into a stone, would it? So it seems a bit wierd to me that Joffrey didn't notice it, if it was indeed in the pie. In the wine, in a liquid, it would dissolve, fine. But in a pie?

Also, thinking about it throught and throught, I still think that using Sansa to smuggle the poison to the wedding was an uncontrolable complication, considering that LF already had Olenna, Dontos and the Kettleblack brothers (and possibly more Tyrells, if someone else knew about it) in King's Landing. Olenna surely could bring the poison herself without fear of being controlled. Really, the only reason why LF would involve Sansa in the plot I can think of is that he wanted her to feel guilty that she played a part in the victim's death and so she would be more grateful that he saved her. But would that be worthy enough to take the risk and rely on the possibility that Dontos would be able to persuade Sansa to wear the hairnet at the wedding and that Sansa would really do it? I don't think so. Imagine that Sansa decided that the hairnet didn't go well with her dress and didn't wear it. What would Olenna do then?

[John Suburbs]

Well, I think we're going in circles here, although your point is well made. But there are some holes in your logic which I will endeavour to correct:

1. All it says is that Tyrion was seated 12 places to the right of the king and that G and L were seated beside T and S. It makes no mention of seating order or whether they were at the far end of the table.

2. Yes, we can time it out almost to the second. A sip takes half a second, a dropped glass another half, and Mel's sentence is about four seconds, maybe five. Margy's sentence is about a third longer than Mel's and Joffrey was already drinking by the time she started speaking. Then we have all that dialogue and grabbing of pie and more dialogue and more pie and small coughing and then big coughing and by the time Joffrey has reached Cressen's state you have one poison acting at least four times slower than the other. There is no speculation here; it is all right on the page.

Joffrey and Margy do not speak faster than Mel -- not four times faster certainly. Again, this is making up something in order to fit a preconceived conclusion. Stomach contents are irrelevant here as the Strangler clearly is not absorbed by the stomach, passed into the bloodstream and then deposited in the throat. If it did, it would take minutes to work, not seconds.

Cressen says the poison is created through a very exact and laborious process known only to a handful of people in the world. So the notion that it was somehow weaker than Cressen's is, again, making up circumstances to fit a conclusion. And besides, a weaker poison would not delay the onset of the attack, it would only lessen it's severity. If you drank a shot of ammonia, it would kill you almost instantly. If you diluted it in a big glass of water, it would burn your throat just as quickly but not as badly and you might even survive.

3. We know Lady O is in the immediate area just before the cutting. She is close enough for Tyrion to hear her comments about the song over the din of the feast. We also know that the pie is served immediately after the cutting. The sequence is this: cutting, pigeons, Joff twirls Margy "merrily" and the pie is served. So the individual pieces had to be lined up behind the head table the whole time, with Lady O standing right there. Or do you think that the pie that was served to the guests was the same pie that had live pigeons in it? And in that case (yuk), what was a roomful of 200 people doing for the intervening 10 minutes or so, standing around with their mouths agape?

5. Littlefinger is telling the truth about the hairnet and the poison, but he is lying about the target. That's what he does, mixes lies with the truth.

6. I'm sure Pycelle had it in for Tyrion, but in this case there is simply no indication that he lied about anything. All the evidence on the page, heck even the made-up "evidence" that's not on the page, shows beyond a doubt that he was poisoned.

As for Garlen, again we have a completely unsupported, in fact a clearly contradicted, assertion posing as evidence. Garlen the cowardly knight who entered the thick of battle wearing Renly's armor? Garlen who recognized the strategic importance of Tyrion's chain? Garlen who says kindly, honorable things to both Tyrion and Sansa even though no one else is listening? And of course, Leonette is there to cover for him because she is lying and duplicitous too. All this is just a con because, without that, the entire wine theory falls apart.

And sorry, but there is maybe a one-in-a-thousand chance that Garlen, Leonette or anyone else could reach over the top of the chalice without being seen, especially since Tyrion and Sansa are standing right there. And even if they did manage to pull it off, do you honestly think that Lady O would go along with this plan, given that the consequence of getting caught is her head, Garlen's head, Leonette's head, and probably Margaery's, Loras', Mace's and any other Tyrell in the room. This is Tywin Lannister we're talking about and you've just killed his grandson, the king.

Just for kicks, take a yardstick and stand it straight up in the middle of your kitchen table. Then have four or so other people stand to your left and right, including a child to match the height of a dwarf, and see if you can touch the top of the yardstick without being seen.

No one says Garlen or anyone else poisoned the pie. Lady O needs no help from anyone to do the pie, so even if caught she and she alone would suffer the consequences.

None of this is invented or alternate theorizing. The fact is that Joffrey went much longer than Cressen from the moments the wine supposedly entered their bodies. The inventions are needed only to put the poison in the wine. The fact is that Lady O could not have done the chalice herself, but she could easily do the pie. The invention is having Garlen or anyone else do the wine.

Also, the balance of power has clearly shifted during the war and Casterly Rock is now poised to become five times more powerful when it started while Highgarden is roughly the same. The fact is that killing Tyrion and removing Sansa from Lannister control prevents that eventuality. The invention is the notion that Lady O is completely unaware of this or she just doesn't care -- all she wants is for Margy to be safe and happy. This is a clear contradiction to the character on the page and is the exact opposite of how feudal lords and ladies viewed the purpose of marriage; ei, Margy's safety comes second to the safety and prosperity of her house.

The invention is that somehow LF and Lady O benefit from Joffrey's when it is quite clearly a setback for both.

The invention is that Joffrey meant to kill Margy that night when everything in the text proves otherwise.

The invention is that Margy and Lady O were really terrified of Joffrey when both of them state quite plainly that they are not.

The invention is that LF knew beforehand all the twists and turns that Joff, Tyrion and the chalice would take to put it exactly where it needed to be in order for it to be poisoned.

The invention is that LF is telling the truth to Sansa when he says he needed to kill Joffrey just to create chaos. Joffrey as king would give him plenty of chaos.

[John Suburbs]

re: a signal

Marge was definitely on it, remember how calmly she dismissed Sansa's worries that Joffrey might hurt her or that Loras would get himself, and all the Tyrells, in trouble, trying to prevent it. Sansa wondered how come that Marge didn't see it that way and blamed her own presumed stupidity.

And, there was something that could have been a signal: Rains of Castamere. Olenna mentions it before Marge and Joff go cut the pie and it is a remark that one wouldn't utter by chance but that wouldn't raise any suspicions as it was bound to be played many times at a Lannister wedding. It would be a signal for the poisoner to carry out the plan and for Marge not to drink from now on.

The poisoning took place just before the pie cutting ceremony -- a time when toasts are common, as indeed there was one.

If Margaery knew the wine was poisoned, why is she calling Joffrey back to the table to accept Lord Buckler's toast? Remember, this is a royal wedding in a chivalrous society, so protocol would dictate "ladies first." So now Margy is in the awkward position of either drinking the poison wine, or breaking protocol to allow Joffrey to go first only to have him drop dead a few moments later. At the very least, she has to come up with some excuse to not drink for at least 10 seconds after Joffrey.

Or are we now to assume that Margy has been given some kind of antidote to the Strangler? And then how would she explain the fact that she is alive while Joffrey is dead on the floor?

[John Suburbs]

Not sure if it was mentioned, but in books LF didn't conspired with Tyrells, He lead them into this plot, acting, as always, from behind the scenes. While Tyrells thought that they are acting on their own.

I think it's pretty clear the conspired together, but it is ludicrous to think, as some people claim, that it started way back at Bitterbridge. LF and LO hardly knew each other then, and LF was there to propose the alliance and the match between J and M, so it is inconceivable that he would then approach a virtual stranger with a plan to kill the king.

The Tyrells didn't come on board until after the Red Wedding and the Tyrion/Sansa wedding. That made Sansa's son the next heir to Winterfell and put the prospect of an equally powerful house just north of the Reach, with a 300-league border that is just ripe for conflict. That's why Tyrion had to go and Sansa had to be smuggled out of the capital.

[Clegane'sPup]

And sorry, but there is maybe a one-in-a-thousand chance that Garlen, Leonette or anyone else could reach over the top of the chalice without being seen, especially since Tyrion and Sansa are standing right there. And even if they did manage to pull it off, do you honestly think that Lady O would go along with this plan, given that the consequence of getting caught is her head, Garlen's head, Leonette's head, and probably Margaery's, Loras', Mace's and any other Tyrell in the room. This is Tywin Lannister we're talking about and you've just killed his grandson, the king.

Just for kicks, take a yardstick and stand it straight up in the middle of your kitchen table. Then have four or so other people stand to your left and right, including a child to match the height of a dwarf, and see if you can touch the top of the yardstick without being seen.

Okay now :dunno: , I'm tossing this out, it is a longshot, no one really pays attendtion to the Fools. Moon Boy likes to walk on stilts.

[John Suburbs]

If we agree that Tyrion was to target and not Joffrey (which seems more and more likely as I'm thinking about it), then I say that your theory is plausible, no over-imagination. Maybe it was already discussed in previous posts and I didn't noticed it, but would be even possible to put the poison in the pie? I'm not talking about the act of putting it in it, that isn't that hard, I mean the fact that the poison was in the form of a dark hard stone-like thing. I suppose that it wouldn't be possible to bite into it without thinking that you bit into a stone, would it? So it seems a bit wierd to me that Joffrey didn't notice it, if it was indeed in the pie. In the wine, in a liquid, it would dissolve, fine. But in a pie?

Also, thinking about it throught and throught, I still think that using Sansa to smuggle the poison to the wedding was an uncontrolable complication, considering that LF already had Olenna, Dontos and the Kettleblack brothers (and possibly more Tyrells, if someone else knew about it) in King's Landing. Olenna surely could bring the poison herself without fear of being controlled. Really, the only reason why LF would involve Sansa in the plot I can think of is that he wanted her to feel guilty that she played a part in the victim's death and so she would be more grateful that he saved her. But would that be worthy enough to take the risk and rely on the possibility that Dontos would be able to persuade Sansa to wear the hairnet at the wedding and that Sansa would really do it? I don't think so. Imagine that Sansa decided that the hairnet didn't go well with her dress and didn't wear it. What would Olenna do then?

Remember what Joffrey says just before he starts choking: "Bit dry, needs washing down." The pie is dry because the crystal is already starting to dissolve from the heat and moisture in the pie. Then he immediately takes a slug of wine and the coughing becomes more violent. This is the alcohol in the wine kicking the dissolution process into high gear. And since the crystal is, what, maybe a half-carat in size, it's not unusual at all that he didn't bite down on it.

Sansa was given the hairnet immediately after the battle, so Loras and Garlen were probably in the capital, and maybe Mace too, but Lady O wouldn't be. At this point, the Tyrells are not even in on the plot because there is no reason for them to kill anyone. Robb is still alive, Tyrion and Sansa are not married, and they are still hoping to pair Sansa up with Willas.

By giving Sansa the hairnet early without her knowing about the crystal, LF has the perfect way to keep it safe until the time comes to use it. Like the Kettleblacks, LF's MO is to put his pieces in place even if he does not know exactly how things will play out.

Once the RW makes Sansa the heir to Winterfell, Tyrion's death is paramount for the Tryrells so they become the perfect partners in his crime.

[John Suburbs]

Okay now :dunno: , I'm tossing this out, it is a longshot, no one really pays attendtion to the Fools. Moon Boy likes to walk on stilts.

Lol, Moon Boy. I've heard that one before too. From the dais, maybe 20 feet below, on stilts no less -- a long arcing shot over the table and "plunk," right into the wine. No risk of failure there.

[Dire Dawg]

Lol, Moon Boy. I've heard that one before too. From the dais, maybe 20 feet below, on stilts no less -- a long arcing shot over the table and "plunk," right into the wine. No risk of failure there.

Maybe he is an idiot savant and that is his one true talent :P

[Clegane'sPup]

Lol, Moon Boy. I've heard that one before too. From the dais, maybe 20 feet below, on stilts no less -- a long arcing shot over the table and "plunk," right into the wine. No risk of failure there.

Okay now, fun is fun, but I have a better one. Dontos throwing dates. :dunno:

I'm not trying to take away the serious discussion. Like I said earlier I like the discussion that has been transpiring. If I had an acutal theory, opinion, speculation about what happened I would say so. I don't have a theory. Besides it took me three years to come to the decision and finally agree that Joff hired the man to hit Bran. :dunce:

[TerrorVoid]

I think it's pretty clear the conspired together, but it is ludicrous to think, as some people claim, that it started way back at Bitterbridge. LF and LO hardly knew each other then, and LF was there to propose the alliance and the match between J and M, so it is inconceivable that he would then approach a virtual stranger with a plan to kill the king.

The Tyrells didn't come on board until after the Red Wedding and the Tyrion/Sansa wedding. That made Sansa's son the next heir to Winterfell and put the prospect of an equally powerful house just north of the Reach, with a 300-league border that is just ripe for conflict. That's why Tyrion had to go and Sansa had to be smuggled out of the capital.

The person, who claim it is LF himself. He said that straight up.

Like "I've told them that Joff is awesome guy, but my people were spreading rumors about how bad he is".

[Clegane'sPup]

The person, who claim it is LF himself. He said that straight up.

Like "I've told them that Joff is awesome guy, but my people were spreading rumors about how bad he is".

I'm going to add this gripe to "Things the fandom probably should stop doing but probably won't.

[Chebyshov]

Omg the "Tyrion was the target" theory needs to be stabbed repeatedly. If Tyrion was the target, there was no reason whatsoever for it to occur at the wedding, when there'd be hundreds of eyes and a million variables (like, idk I'm just spitballing, Tyrion not eating his pie and someone else taking it). Not to mention the idea that Tyrion impregnating Sansa would immediately disrupt the political power balance is idiotic.

Joff was the target, which is why it had to happen where and how it did. I'm also gobsmacked that people read these books as if it's an episode of Scooby Doo. Martin was pretty damn clear in introducing the poison to us and providing foreshadowing for its later use.

[Ygrain]

The poisoning took place just before the pie cutting ceremony -- a time when toasts are common, as indeed there was one.

If Margaery knew the wine was poisoned, why is she calling Joffrey back to the table to accept Lord Buckler's toast? Remember, this is a royal wedding in a chivalrous society, so protocol would dictate "ladies first." So now Margy is in the awkward position of either drinking the poison wine, or breaking protocol to allow Joffrey to go first only to have him drop dead a few moments later. At the very least, she has to come up with some excuse to not drink for at least 10 seconds after Joffrey.

Or are we now to assume that Margy has been given some kind of antidote to the Strangler? And then how would she explain the fact that she is alive while Joffrey is dead on the floor?

Oh, BS - or rather, your fabrication. No-one claims that it took place before cutting the pie, but during.

[John Suburbs]

The person, who claim it is LF himself. He said that straight up.

Like "I've told them that Joff is awesome guy, but my people were spreading rumors about how bad he is".

LF says he was spreading rumors about Joffrey the monster in camp while telling the Tyrells that he was a peach. But that in no way implies that he was plotting with Lady O to kill the king way back at Bitterbridge. There is no indication in the text that they had ever met each other, let alone trust each other to commit regicide.

[oursisthefury69]

such a troll theory

[John Suburbs]

Omg the "Tyrion was the target" theory needs to be stabbed repeatedly. If Tyrion was the target, there was no reason whatsoever for it to occur at the wedding, when there'd be hundreds of eyes and a million variables (like, idk I'm just spitballing, Tyrion not eating his pie and someone else taking it). Not to mention the idea that Tyrion impregnating Sansa would immediately disrupt the political power balance is idiotic.

Joff was the target, which is why it had to happen where and how it did. I'm also gobsmacked that people read these books as if it's an episode of Scooby Doo. Martin was pretty damn clear in introducing the poison to us and providing foreshadowing for its later use.

There is every reason for it to occur at the wedding and only at the wedding. There is no way to get to him at any other time, unless we want to speculate that Lady O was able to get a spy into Tyrion's household. Lady O is leaving right after the wedding and LF is supposed to be in the Vale, so even if Tyrion stays on as MoC for another year or more before bringing his new baby son to Winterfell, they have no real way of killing him from hundreds of leagues away. Besides, killing anyone quietly and in private does not provide the cover to skirt Sansa out of the capital without little birds finding out.

Tyrion is virtually certain to eat the pie. This is not just another course in the 77-course meal. It is the Wedding Pie, the feudal equivalent to our wedding cake. It is wheeled in with pomp and circumstance, the bride and groom make a big show of cutting it, in this case pigeons fly out but in most cases it is then cut and served to the guests who are then expected to eat at least one bite. "It is ill luck not to eat the pie." In this case, that ill luck would arrive as disfavor from the king to anyone who is reported not to have eaten. And in fact, Lady O has a better-than-average notion of which piece he would eat: the pointy end, which is also the easiest place to pinch a tiny crystal into the filling.

How exactly would a Lannister heir to Winterfell not impact the balance of power? He is a Lannister, sworn to honor his family. If push came to shove between HG and CR and either Tyrion or his son were ruling in Winterfell, you bet they would call banners and march south. It's the reason why the Tyrells wanted a match with Joffrey, why Frey wanted a marriage to Robb, why Tully wanted marriages with both Stark and Arryn: marriage is a form of political maneuvering and alliance building. Blood ties bind houses together to form common political and military blocks. Geez, just look at the Tyrells, the Redwynes and the Hightowers and you'll see exactly what I mean.

And sorry, please explain to me how Littlefinger could have known ahead of time all the twists and turns that happened in order to place the chalice right where it needed to be for the poisoning? Or that any spat between Joff and Tyrion over the jousting would involve the wine at all, or that Tyrion would be holding the chalice after all was said and done? If Joffrey hadn't noticed that T and S were about to leave, then he wouldn't have even been in the room. Please tell me how Littlefinger could have anticipated that? And before you say "magic" or "he just knows what people will do," please tell me how an experienced player like Lady O would go along with this nutcase plan that relies on such intricate cooperation from the targets, especially since, if anything were to go wrong, it would be her and her family in the throne room surrounded by Lannister guards while her partner in crime is safely aboard ship in the bay ready to split for Braavos at the first sign of trouble?

What's truly gobsmacking is how easily people transfer their own visceral hatred for Joffrey to everyone in the book and then twist themselves into knots coming up with one unsubstantiated theory after another, and even some that are in direct contradiction to the text, in order to support their own emotionally satisfying conclusion.

The evidence on the page speaks for itself, and so did the victim: "It's the pie, kof, the pie..."

[John Suburbs]

Oh, BS - or rather, your fabrication. No-one claims that it took place before cutting the pie, but during.

Regardless, after the cutting is over and the wine is thoroughly poisoned and Joffrey is gulping down huge throatfuls with no ill effects whatsoever, Margy calls out: "My Lord, we should return to our places. Lord Buckler wants to toast us"

Why on earth is she urging him to share a toast if she knows the wine is poisoned?

[John Suburbs]

such a troll theory

Facts are facts. It's the truth, my friend.

The poisoned pie conforms to the facts on the page in every detail while the poisoned wine can only be supported by completely made-up assumptions that have absolutely no textual support.