Littlefinger was lying about the Purple Wedding

[John Suburbs]

I disagree here, I think that Tyrion's arrest was unpredictable. Very few people – perhaps only Tyrion himself – could have said with any certainty that Cersei would have accused him in the event of Joffrey's death. And there are other problems, too.

Let's say your plan is to poison Joffrey at the wedding in such a way that Tyrion will be blamed. Why use the Strangler? It's very rare and expensive, and it mimics choking. If people think Joffrey choked on his food, then the plan is ruined, or at least, half-effective. There are other poisons that would leave no doubt that they'd been used, and as a bonus they'd be cheaper and easier to get hold of. It's a lot of effort just to imperil the goal.

And why bother with the jousting dwarves? I understand that hostility between Tyrion and Joffrey would be key to framing him, but that hostility was already well-known, and the jousting act risked having those hostilities boil over. Tyrion could have been ejected from the hall, or he could have stormed out - in fact, he very nearly did.

Not only is the arrest unpredictable, but the entire sequence of events that put the chalice right in front of Garlen and Leonette at the exact time that there is even a remote chance that no one would see is utterly unpredictable. Honesty, I am still waiting for anyone to answer this question: how could Littlefinger have possibly known that was going to happen?

Seems LF sold the whole thing to the Tyrells as a double whammy and then secretly plotted to get her the fuck out of there, with the added benefit that if anything goes wrong, even before the poisoning, he has a prefect scape-goat and will never be suspected of anything.

Put yourself in the room as Littlefinger is explaining this "plan" to Lady O:

First the dwarfs will joust and Tyrion and Joffrey will fight. Then Joffrey will dump his wine on Tyrion's head and they'll fight some more. Then Joffrey will name Tyrion his cup bearer and order him to pour more wine. Then Joffrey will leave the cup with Tyrion while he goes to gut the pie. Then Tyrion will try to leave but Joffrey will see him and call for more wine. Tyrion will give the chalice to Joffrey and Joffrey will drink and die. And then Tyrion will pick up the chalice right at the very end and Cersei will accuse him of murder.

And Lady O, in rapturous awe of Littlefinger's brilliant mind, says: sounds good, there is no way all of this will fail to happen just as you say, which is good because if even one little piece of this goes wrong, my head comes off while you enjoy life in your sprawling manse in Braavos that you bought with the crown's gold.

[John Suburbs]

Who cares who gets the blame? Really? So they'd murder the King's Uncle at his Wedding with no realistic scapegoat (Sansa couldn't have done it herself)? It would lead to an investigation that could turn up all kinds of things that Littlefinger in particular would like kept a secret. "Tyrion was looking through these ledgers before he was murdered? Perhaps there is something in here that someone wanted to keep hidden". "What's that Podrick? It was Ser Mandon who attacked Tyrion on the Blackwater? Why would he do that? There's a conspiracy here."

The Imp murdering his nephew, because he hated him, or Oberyn murdering Joffrey as revenge for his sister and her children are scenarios that require no further explanation. Tyrion, who had no overt enemies, being poisoned does. Tywin might not give a crap about Tyrion but he wouldn't let anybody get away with murdering him.

Sansa is the obvious suspect, but she is missing and no one can question her. She obviously abhorred being married to the imp so she killed him and fled the capital. Sure, she must have had help, but there is no reason to inspect the ledgers as part of any investigation because that has nothing to do with Sansa's motivation. Tyrion himself suspected Cersei for the attempt on the Blackwater, and both Pod and Bronn know that, so no connection to LF or Lady O there either. Again, your objections are based on assumptions dreamed up entirely in your head and have no basis in either the text or a rational view of reality.

King's chop heads off all the time but not on the steps of the GREAT SEPT OF BALOR while still a child and while publicly dismissing their Mother as "having the weak heart of a woman", inflaming the war with the Starks when it could easily have been avoided.

Again, marrying the King only counts if that King keeps the Throne. Do you really think Joffrey was going to last? Seriously? This was a guy that was quite openly planning to rape his Aunt. It was only a matter of time before he got offed, and if that happened after consummation but BEFORE an Heir could be born then the Tyrells would be out.

There is no way in a million years that you can say Joffrey's actions even come close to Aerys or Aegon the Unworthy or Maegor or Black Harran or countless other tyrants in the history of Westeros. It seems all shocking to you because you live in the 20th Century and you had a birds-eye view of a beheading. The fact -- again, facts on my side, not on yours -- is that no one until the High Sparrow raised a peep over the beheading at the sept. The only objections that did emerge came from Tywin, Tyrion and Cersei because it was a foolish thing to do and robbed them of a valuable hostage that they could have traded for Jaime, not because they thought Joffrey was crazy.

And are you talking about Sansa, his "aunt"? Nothing more than snotty braggadocio trying to prove what an all-powerful king he is. And there is no way that Margy or Lady O even knew about that conversation anyway, so to use it as an excuse to prove they were oh so worried about poor Margy is laughable -- pathetic, but laughable all the same.

Robert and Joffrey are not the same.

Robert let Cersei have her own way because he didn't care about ruling the Realm. Joffrey had no respect for the wishes of his own mother, he's not going to listen to Margaery. Cersei and Tywin are also not stupid enough to allow the Tyrells to do to them what they did to Robert. The idea of it is a huge part of Cersei's insanity in the last two books.

Robert's death was also staged as an accident and Joffrey was (allegedly) half Baratheon. Yet Renly still wanted to take custody of Joffrey. He who controls the King, controls the realm after all. If Joffrey died and the Lannisters took custody of Margaery and the King, then the Tyrells would have as much influence as Dorne did when Aerys and Rhaegar died - None.

Robert and Joffrey are more alike than you realize, obviously. You think Joffrey is interested in ruling the realm? Margaery has all the skills she needs to get Joffrey to do whatever she wants, at least for a while. He is over the moon at marrying her rather than Sansa -- again, evidence taken directly from the text -- so she will be putty in his hand right up until he gets bored with her. Seven years is the typical shelf-life for wedded bliss -- I give Joffrey less than half that time, but by then there could be two, even three, Tyrell heirs to the IT.

After the wedding, Cersei will be shipped off within a fortnight, so she is of no consequence. Joffrey could die accidentally just as easily as Robert did, and yes, control of the children is paramount, but if Margy has the wits the gods gave a goose, she will have Loras and an entire retinue of Tyrell guards to keep them safe.

Rhaenys and Aegon were killed during a brutal sack and the collapse of a 300-year dynasty. The two situations are not even remotely comparable.

Margaery and the rest of the Tyrells have won him over completely. He loves them, that's why he's "giving static" to his Mother for treating them so badly. His love for Margaery is enough that he's overcoming his innate shyness and fear of his Mother.

They might have to wait five more years for an heir but Tommen will grow up with them as a major influence on his life. They won't need to off him, ever, because he'll listen to their Council.

Do you really think Margaery would be able to influence children that had Joffrey as a father? Really? Do you think Joff would care that Mace is his father in law if the Tyrells displeased him?

She is 17 and he is 9. He has yet to grow into the man he will become so there is no way you, me or anyone else can state categorically whether the Tyrells will have sole influence over him for the rest of his life. As I said, Tommen is more thoughtful and circumspect than Joffrey, which indicates strongly that he will make up his own mind about things as he matures.

And do you honestly believe that Joffrey's children will become just like him? Need I remind you that Joffrey is the product of Cersei and Jaime, neither of whom are "crazy" like Joffrey.

And if things play out as you say, and Joffrey is killed in short order by someone because he is so "crazy, then Margy gets to be Queen Regent for the next 12 to 15 years, unlike with Tommen who could die for any number of reasons in the next five years, which would leave the Tyrells with nothing. So congratulations, you are the first person I've ever seen to posit an argument for your point that is in fact an argument against it.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Who was where?: Olenna and the pie

We know Lady O is in the immediate area just before the cutting. She is close enough for Tyrion to hear her comments about the song over the din of the feast. We also know that the pie is served immediately after the cutting. The sequence is this: cutting, pigeons, Joff twirls Margy "merrily" and the pie is served. So the individual pieces had to be lined up behind the head table the whole time, with Lady O standing right there. Or do you think that the pie that was served to the guests was the same pie that had live pigeons in it? And in that case (yuk), what was a roomful of 200 people doing for the intervening 10 minutes or so, standing around with their mouths agape?

...we can conclude that the pies for the head table at least are not being run from the kitchen but are already lined up, ready to be served. The most logical place for this is behind the head table so that servants are not blocking the view of the cutting ceremony or reaching over the front of the table trying to serve the guests. So now we have the pies in very close proximity to the table and, to avoid any additional confusion, they are most likely lined up one for each place. Is there text that states this explicitly? No, but this is the most logical way it would be done to serve the pies quickly and without a big clusterfuck of servers, plates and pies at the head table. With Lady O known to be very close to Tyrion, it is certainly plausible that she knew which pie was to be his and she could pinch the poison into the filling in the blink of an eye as the servant was watching the pigeons.

Let's start with the obvious: no-one thinks that the pie Joffrey cut is the one served, and nobody thinks that the pie served wasn't ready to go at that time.

Also, the cutting ceremony isn't at the head table, it's down below the dais.

Aside from that, there are two elements in play here, both of which you are wrong about:

Lady Olenna

There is unfortunately scant information on her movements. We know she approaches Tyrion's general area after Joffrey pours the wine over his head. We're told she's “leaning on her cane”, which to me implies that she's had to get up out of her chair, and thus that she wasn't seated anywhere near Tyrion. For all we know she's at the far end of the table.

We're not told what she does next until after Joffrey starts choking, but being as Tyrion doesn't mention her again, we can infer she's not been near him during that time.

We can also infer that she's probably not standing around behind the head table counting the pie slices to make sure that she poisons Tyrion's one. Why? Because there's no mention of her doing so, and such behaviour would surely be odd, and thus remarkable, at a wedding feast where every noble, including her, is seated at a high table in front of hundreds of assembled guests. People would be staring at her, wondering “why is Lady Olenna out of her seat?”

You may say, “Ah, but everyone was looking at the pigeons!” But, seeing how she wasn't seated near Tyrion, she'd have had to get up and walk, possibly a decent distance, just to get to Tyrion's slice of pie. Then she'd have to loiter there for a few seconds until Joffrey cuts the pie, then poison Tyrion's, then walk back to her seat. And all this without anyone noticing her?

Alright, maybe she can move pretty fast when she wants to. In which case, people would be saying, “Blimey, I didn't know Olenna Tyrell could run really fast, in front of hundreds of witnesses. What's she doing with that pie?”

The pie

Without knowing the layout of the room, we can't know where the pie was served from. There could have been doors adjacent to the head table with an army of servants and trolleys behind them, ready and waiting for the pie to be cut. Note that in your scenario, you'd need one servant for each guest, at least at the high table: about 25 or so, at the very least, which seems like far too many. Haven't they heard of trolleys?

Despite being ready to serve, the pie itself does not need to be in the room, and there is no mention of it being so. To me, a very reasonable assumption is that the dining room is directly adjacent to the kitchens, possibly connected thereto by a door. Therein, the kitchen staff, also known as cooks, would time their preparations so that the pie was only just finished before it was due to be served, at which point they would slice it, plate it, and hand it over to waitstaff who'd then convey it swiftly to the appropriate destination, possibly by means of a trolley if there are too many portions to carry by hand.

It seems quite a complicated dance, but I assure you the process takes place in restaurants all over the world every day without issue, and was much the same throughout recorded history.

Oh, and what about the lemon cream? Text states that Tyrion's serving man spoons a bit of cream onto his pie. Unless Tyrion is the only one to get the cream (in which case, hello Unnamed Serving Man, poisoner), then, by your construction, every servant – at least 25 of them – is carrying a piece of pie and also a small bowl of lemon cream, from which they take a single spoonful. This seems wasteful. Far more likely that a couple of blokes with trolleys full of pie and a single bowl of lemon cream each roll down the aisles serving people, probably starting with the King and then heading down the table. The only variable there being, were they waiting behind the table, or did they run out from the kitchen at the right moment?

And if they were waiting with trolleys, how did Lady Olenna know which slice of pie among many would go to Tyrion?

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Just an FYI, I did a big post as an edit of a double-post:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/129589-littlefinger-was-lying-about-the-purple-wedding/?p=7143212

Of course, while I was doing that the conversation moved on

[John Suburbs]

Indeed. I suppose the “Targeting Tyrion” theory doesn't really need there to be a culprit, which is why the Strangler was used: the aim is to make it look like he choked.

However...

If Tyrion were single, or married to anyone else, his choking at a feast wouldn't raise an eyebrow. But having just been forcibly married to Sansa - whose family, remember, are traitors - it might stand to reason that Sansa would have motive to kill him. And if that wasn't enough to arouse suspicion, then Sansa's disappearance certainly would, and it seems to be part of the plan. All it takes is a very simple autopsy to prove that Tyrion was poisoned, which could be done quite a while after he died, I guess. I don't know how long it would for a piece of food lodged in a dead man's throat to disappear, but I presume quite a while. Unless Sansa disappeared after enough time had passed for that food to decompose, she would raise suspicion and the jig would be up. (In fact, she'd still raise suspicion, but nothing could be proved.)

All that waiting would defeat half the purpose of murdering Tyrion at the wedding, which is to create a distraction so that Sansa can slip away unseen. In fact, if she waited, she'd be married off again.

So if the Tyrells want to kill Tyrion for the purpose of stopping a Lannister-Stark alliance, it doesn't make much sense to use the rare and expensive Strangler, when there's very little chance the subterfuge will last. Perhaps all they need is a plausible enough death for an hour or two while Sansa escapes... but aren't there other poisons, whose causes of death are ambiguous enough not to scream "poison"?

Not to mention, if Tyrion was the target, and Sansa was to escape, wouldn't her absence be noticed almost immediately? The plan requires her to return to her chambers and change clothes before meeting Dontos in the godswood:

Person #1: Ye gods, Tyrion is dead from choking! Someone tell his wife. Where is she?

Person #2: She's not here.

Person #3: Guards! Find Lady Sansa! Start your search at her chambers, literally the first place anybody would look!

I hope she can get changed fast, because otherwise she's not going anywhere tonight.

Indeed. If she sticks around she'll definitely be married off to a Lannister, and if she doesn't stick around, she'll be assumed guilty in Tyrion's murder. How, in either circumstance, do the Tyrells benefit from her disappearance?

There are two explanations. The first is that they eventually intend to marry her to Willas, or some other Tyrell. This has the obvious problem of implicating them in Tyrion's murder, and is thus unfeasible unless the political situation in King's Landing is so different that no one will care if they killed Tyrion. In other words, they'd have to kill more or less every Lannister at court.

The second one comes from John Suburbs, who is a firm believer that Tyrion was the intended target:

[The forum is being a little glitchy, that's not a quote from UnFit Finlay]

I think he means the Vale, North and Riverlands vs. the North, Riverlands, Westerlands, Crownlands, Stormlands and Dorne, but whatever. It's a good point. With Sansa married to Tyrion, the Lannisters have a direct control over or direct blood ties to more than half the realm, and, crucially, all the land surrounding the Reach. This is a bad position for the Reach to be in, to be sure, and preventing the emergence of such a power bloc is a good justification for an act of war (for examples, see: the entire span human history). But I don't see why that means they'd let Littlefinger spirit Sansa away.

The Tyrells (perhaps just Lady Olenna) have absolutely no idea what Littlefinger plans to do with the heir to the North, but whatever it is, it surely can't align with their interests. He can't press Sansa's claim without announcing her; he can't announce her without attracting a Lannister army intent on bringing the King's Justice to Sansa, and to Littlefinger for hiding her; and there's no way, if Littlefinger was facing the chopping block, that he'd refrain from revealing the part his Tyrell partners had to play. (And that's assuming she isn't discovered accidentally.)

Let's say that problem is somehow averted, and Littlefinger is able to create this Vale/Riverlands/North power-bloc. That's still a mighty big power-bloc, and therefore represents a danger, not to the Reach directly, but to the crown - and the Tyrells have just married into the royal family! Lady Olenna can surely see this, too, and if she's thinking long-term, she's still setting up a big danger to her house's future; a lesser danger, but still something to worry about.

But there is an easier option: kill Sansa, too. Poisoning the pair of them might be a bit suspicious, but you could kill Tyrion publicly, kidnap Sansa, and then quietly put her in an unmarked grave or drop her in the middle of the ocean. You've successfully prevented the Lannisters from gaining the North and the Riverlands, you've stopped Sansa from forming any other power-bloc, and as a bonus, everybody knows who killed Tyrion and nobody will ever prove otherwise.

The question, then, is why trust Littlefinger to do this. In fact, that's one of the central difficulties in the whole plot, regardless of who was the target, and it's at present difficult to answer.

Let's accept for the moment that the best case scenario for the Tyrells is to have Sansa killed, and that their chosen agent in this scheme was Littlefinger. Clearly, he's double-crossed them. Given that, we can assume that the Tyrells would be secretly attempting to find Sansa and finish the job, and they wouldn't have to look very far, as it's very obvious where she is: I think anybody who has a reason to suspect that Littlefinger is hiding Sansa Stark isn't going to be fooled by Alayne Stone for long. There's no evidence of any Tyrells agents in the Vale in books 4 & 5, so that weighs against the idea that they want Sansa dead.

But let's take this one step further: we've said that the motive to kill Tyrion and abscond with Sansa is to stop the Lannister gaining blood ties to the North. Hopefully I've given a convincing case that the safest course for the Tyrells at that point would be to kill Sansa. Isn't there an unnecessary step in there? Why bother killing Tyrion at all?

If the Tyrells are willing to accept that they can't have Sansa, and they aim to stop her from being used by the Lannisters, it only makes sense to give her to Littlefinger if they can trust that his long-term goals align with theirs. I think that's a dubious assumption, and so surely would Lady Olenna Tyrell, if she's as savvy and as forward-thinking as this plan requires her to be. Sansa's is the only death needed to fix their problems. Why not poison her pie? (And if anybody says that maybe they did and Tyrion was given it by mistake, so help me God I will break my laptop.)

Better yet, why not report Littlefinger to Tywin, thus eliminating a regicidal rival, and poison Sansa themselves? The Tyrells have access to her: they can just invite her for tea and give her a slow-acting poison to hide when it was given to her. Or break into her room, throw her out of the window and leave a suicide note. Shit, they even know where they can get some Strangler!

And if they can't get their act together quick enough, they can have Margaery befriend her and give her some moon tea to stop her producing an heir while they plot and scheme.

The problem with the Tyrells wanting Sansa dead is that it would create a huge power vacuum in the north and the Lannisters, by virtue of the alliance with the Boltons and the fake Arya plan, which I believe was announced before the PW if I'm not mistaken?, would give Tywin plenty of leverage to gain the north without Sansa, although perhaps not completely.

Obviously, Sansa married to Willas is the ideal solution for the Tyrells, but since LF scotched that plan, Lady O made the only logical choice: let Littlefinger have her so that he can acquire the north. This at least puts a buffer of sorts between his bloc and hers, and she will have a blood tie to the Iron Throne in a few years to boot. And I don't think it even needs to be said that having LF in control of the north is better than Tywin because LF has shown no propensity for invading other realms, burning crops from horizon to horizon, murdering smallfolk by the thousands and exterminating rival houses to the very last man. He may eventually do those very things, but at this point in time LF is nowhere near the mad dog that Tywin is.

Other points of quibbling: I wouldn't include Dorne in an Lannister power bloc and the crownlands don't bring much to the table because it is mostly the area around the capital with relatively few men and resources. The stormlands may fall under Lannister influence, but it's a weak hold as long as Stannis is alive. So the real strength will come from the Westerlands, the Riverlands, the Neck and the North, which is plenty when the time comes to butt heads with Highgarden.

Also, LF has the poison in place and the means to get Sansa out of the capital unseen. By the time Lady O's motivation to kill Tyrion is manifest, she has no time to set up an assassination on her own, and if she tries to poison Sansa's pie at the last minute instead of Tyrion's guess who would make sure the Lannisters found out about it somehow?

And of course, this sidesteps the numerous physical and logistical impossibilities of having the poison in the wine, which really, should be enough for any logical thinker to realize that it had to be in the pie.

[John Suburbs]

Who was where?: Olenna and the pie

Let's start with the obvious: no-one thinks that the pie Joffrey cut is the one served, and nobody thinks that the pie served wasn't ready to go at that time.

Also, the cutting ceremony isn't at the head table, it's down below the dais.

Aside from that, there are two elements in play here, both of which you are wrong about:

Lady Olenna

There is unfortunately scant information on her movements. We know she approaches Tyrion's general area after Joffrey pours the wine over his head. We're told she's “leaning on her cane”, which to me implies that she's had to get up out of her chair, and thus that she wasn't seated anywhere near Tyrion. For all we know she's at the far end of the table.

We're not told what she does next until after Joffrey starts choking, but being as Tyrion doesn't mention her again, we can infer she's not been near him during that time.

We can also infer that she's probably not standing around behind the head table counting the pie slices to make sure that she poisons Tyrion's one. Why? Because there's no mention of her doing so, and such behaviour would surely be odd, and thus remarkable, at a wedding feast where every noble, including her, is seated at a high table in front of hundreds of assembled guests. People would be staring at her, wondering “why is Lady Olenna out of her seat?”

You may say, “Ah, but everyone was looking at the pigeons!” But, seeing how she wasn't seated near Tyrion, she'd have had to get up and walk, possibly a decent distance, just to get to Tyrion's slice of pie. Then she'd have to loiter there for a few seconds until Joffrey cuts the pie, then poison Tyrion's, then walk back to her seat. And all this without anyone noticing her?

Alright, maybe she can move pretty fast when she wants to. In which case, people would be saying, “Blimey, I didn't know Olenna Tyrell could run really fast, in front of hundreds of witnesses. What's she doing with that pie?”

We know that she is close enough to be heard clearly above the din of the feast, and Tyrion has just had wine dumped all over his head. We can also logically deduce that she is not in front of the table because Tyrion would have most certainly seen her approach. And I hope you agree that she was not on the table. So the only logical conclusion was that she was behind the table, behind the guests but still close enough to be heard.

With her behind him then, why would you expect Tyrion to be focused on Lady O the entire time Joffrey is in his face and then he is watching the pie ceremony? She neither moves nor speaks and Tyrion is now facing toward the dais and away from her position behind the head table. You can't take absence of notice as proof that she has left the area. There is also no mention that she ever left, and there is no mention whatsoever of Garlen reaching over and dropping something into the chalice even though Tyrion is standing right there, and yet this is taken as an unimpeachable truth by the wine crowd.

So yes, a woman on a mission to save her house by killing the man who could bring about its destruction could very easily have remained right where she was and very easily have deduced correctly which of the pies was destined for Tyrion. There is nothing odd about an old woman who's been sitting for hours stretching her legs to get some circulation back, particularly at a time when the entire room is standing too because the pie is being wheeled in. No reason at all to be fast or obtrusive. She is very short, she is very ornery and no one is going to mess with the Queen of Thorns if she feels like taking a little stroll.

The pie

Without knowing the layout of the room, we can't know where the pie was served from. There could have been doors adjacent to the head table with an army of servants and trolleys behind them, ready and waiting for the pie to be cut. Note that in your scenario, you'd need one servant for each guest, at least at the high table: about 25 or so, at the very least, which seems like far too many. Haven't they heard of trolleys?

Despite being ready to serve, the pie itself does not need to be in the room, and there is no mention of it being so. To me, a very reasonable assumption is that the dining room is directly adjacent to the kitchens, possibly connected thereto by a door. Therein, the kitchen staff, also known as cooks, would time their preparations so that the pie was only just finished before it was due to be served, at which point they would slice it, plate it, and hand it over to waitstaff who'd then convey it swiftly to the appropriate destination, possibly by means of a trolley if there are too many portions to carry by hand.

It seems quite a complicated dance, but I assure you the process takes place in restaurants all over the world every day without issue, and was much the same throughout recorded history.

Oh, and what about the lemon cream? Text states that Tyrion's serving man spoons a bit of cream onto his pie. Unless Tyrion is the only one to get the cream (in which case, hello Unnamed Serving Man, poisoner), then, by your construction, every servant – at least 25 of them – is carrying a piece of pie and also a small bowl of lemon cream, from which they take a single spoonful. This seems wasteful. Far more likely that a couple of blokes with trolleys full of pie and a single bowl of lemon cream each roll down the aisles serving people, probably starting with the King and then heading down the table. The only variable there being, were they waiting behind the table, or did they run out from the kitchen at the right moment?

And if they were waiting with trolleys, how did Lady Olenna know which slice of pie among many would go to Tyrion?

The sequence is exactly this: cut, pigeons, twirl, pie. The servant was all ready to do his job the moment the ceremony was concluded, so obviously it was not brought in directly from the kitchen or through some back door. They are right there, all ready to be served. Nobody says there was one servant for each guest, but neither was there an entire squad of servants scurrying back and forth with pies in their hands -- one slip up and lord or lady whosit winds up with pie in their face.

Tyrion gives ample description of the hall, the food, the servants and the guests. There is no mention of any trolleys. Honestly, you poo poo the idea that Lady O stayed where she was the whole time, but then you go ahead and invent something like a trolley to serve the pie. I spell that Hippo with a capital Crit.

All that cutting, slicing, handing and carrying from the kitchen to the table would have taken minutes. The pie is served in seconds. It says so in the book. How many throne rooms do you think there are in the world where the kitchen is in the very next room?

Again, trolleys. There's no mention of trolleys. No mention of individual servants with either pie or spoons in their hands. It was obviously all very orderly: pies lined up in a row with a handful of servants to serve them and a few more to dab the lemon cream on top. This gets the food to table quickly, efficiently and without a lot of confusion. Geez, your scenario sounds more like frat party than a royal wedding.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Fucking hell this is hard work.

Once again, you guys are making things up out of whole cloth and using it to support your own predetermined conclusion.

How can you ignore the fact that Joff and Cressen both died in exactly the same way, that there was a little purple crystal in both cases, that Sansa came in with little purple crystals in her hairnet, that Lady O fiddled with the hairnet, that immediately after the poisoning and long before she gets to Littlefinger she notices that a crystal is missing, and then conclude that Sansa, the hairnet and the missing crystal had nothing to do with Joffrey's death.

Well, you're ignoring all the holes in your theory. I'm stating the holes in mine.

As for "making things up out of whole cloth and using it to support your own predetermined conclusion"... well, need I state the obvious? (Maybe I do, you already missed the irony inherent in Garlan the Gallant being a poisoner.)

You must be screwing with me. No one, absolutely no one, can be this thick.

Now, now, there's no need to start calling people names, ya great flippin' dingleberry

Very good points all round Grody Brody.

Why thank you very much.

Is it possible that Sansa was Littlefinger's price for his involvement in killing Joffrey? If he's convinced them that his interest in her is purely romantic (as he has a lot of readers) then it would explain that part of the plan. After all, at that point, he was Lord Paramount of the ravaged and divided Riverlands solely by the Lannisters' decree. The Tyrells could not have expected him to take full control of the Vale and end up in a position where openly defying the Iron Throne was a genuine possibility.

As I recall, he asked Tywin for her Hand previously didn't he?

That's another good explanation for why they'd let him take her. But that still doesn't overcome the risks inherent in giving him Sansa.

I don't recall him asking Tywin for Sansa's hand. I wonder how Lysa would have felt about that?

So it takes years, so what? Highgarden, Casterly Rock, Winterfell, all these places have stood for thousands of years, so even a 20-year time-frame is just a tick of the clock. We're talking about a dramatic rebalancing of power in Westeros here and the possibility that a Westerlands-Riverlands-Neck- North bloc could push Highgarden into subservience if not irrelevance within a generation. A highly astute, highly educated woman like Lady O doesn't protect her interests just for tomorrow but for as long as her vision can take her.

Think of it this way: imagine if Canada were to suddenly elect a new government that then forges a military alliance with Russia and then the two invade Scandinavia and literally raze every village, town and whole city into the dust, murdering every civilian they can find, even children, in the most brutal fashion and then setting fire to the countryside from horizon to horizon. Do you think the president of the United States would just go, oh well, what a shame, good thing it won't affect us for another 20 years. ?

The northmen will not reject the grandson of Ned Stark. Nobody knows that there are other Starks still alive. There is no reason at all to question Sansa's fertility or her ability to deliver a healthy son, that's just you making things up out of thin air again. And the Karstarks, Umbers, et all have no greater love for the rose than for the lion, so the prospect of gold and glory will be more than enough to get them to march with the only person on the planet who has even a shred of legitimacy to be lord of Winterfell.

And forgetting for the moment the enormous logistical problems of sending an assassin a thousand leagues away to murder a sitting lord in his own castle with no inside help at all and then escaping cleanly so it can't be traced back to Highgarden, why would Lady O pursue such a difficult plan with such an uncertain outcome when she has Tyrion right in front of her at the wedding?

Not just a red herring but completely contrary to the facts on the page. Sansa is not with Margaery all the time. At first, Sansa is kept alone in her own tower by the queen with only limited access to the Tyrells or anyone else at court. And once the Willas plan is discovered, she is cut off completely. Later, as Tyrion's wife, she is not shown to have any further interaction with anyone, save for Dontos.

And if IIRC, moon tea is to prevent pregnancy. To abort, you need tansy and that seems to be much harder to come by.

The point I was making was not, "It takes years, so it's nothing to worry about." The point is, "It'll take years, so there's no need to rush." You're trying to explain why Tyrion must have been killed at Joffrey's wedding feast, but their motive allows tthe Tyrells to dawdle, and to choose a less risky plan.

I've discussed why elsewhere why the Lannister hold on the North is extremely tenuous, and, as mentioned elsewhere, Tyrion will remain Master of Coin for a little while yet. As for the difficulty of killing him in Winterfell: they have years to plan it. And how hard is it, really? Send up a travelling salesman with casks of wine, the best of which is laced with a slow-acting poison. And when Tyrion opens that cask... BAM! Out jumps a dwarf who stabs him right in the tits, it's the perfect murder.

As for the Sansa moon tea angle, it's open speculation, but not so implausible as you make out. She's already been sick at the thought of having Tyrion's child, and the Lannisters might kill her once she has Tyrion's child. I doubt she'd take much convincing to abort it. At the wedding, Olenna is still trying to get her to come to Highgarden. And once she's queen, Margaery will have as much access to Sansa as she wants. Perfectly possible to befriend her and try to make sure she aborts the heir to the North

Not only is the arrest unpredictable, but the entire sequence of events that put the chalice right in front of Garlen and Leonette at the exact time that there is even a remote chance that no one would see is utterly unpredictable. Honesty, I am still waiting for anyone to answer this question: how could Littlefinger have possibly known that was going to happen?

He couldn't have.

And do you honestly believe that Joffrey's children will become just like him? Need I remind you that Joffrey is the product of Cersei and Jaime, neither of whom are "crazy" like Joffrey.

Um... did you read A Feast for Crows?

The problem with the Tyrells wanting Sansa dead is that it would create a huge power vacuum in the north and the Lannisters, by virtue of the alliance with the Boltons and the fake Arya plan, which I believe was announced before the PW if I'm not mistaken?, would give Tywin plenty of leverage to gain the north without Sansa, although perhaps not completely.

Leverage, schmeverage. The important thing is to eliminate the blood tie. Roose Bolton doesn't expect the Lannisters to send troops north to support him, why would he return the favour?

And bear in mind that there's already a huge power vacuum in the North. Hell, there's an actual war going on. As long as whoever wins doesn't have power elsewhere, why would the Reach care?

Obviously, Sansa married to Willas is the ideal solution for the Tyrells, but since LF scotched that plan, Lady O made the only logical choice: let Littlefinger have her so that he can acquire the north. This at least puts a buffer of sorts between his bloc and hers, and she will have a blood tie to the Iron Throne in a few years to boot. And I don't think it even needs to be said that having LF in control of the north is better than Tywin because LF has shown no propensity for invading other realms, burning crops from horizon to horizon, murdering smallfolk by the thousands and exterminating rival houses to the very last man. He may eventually do those very things, but at this point in time LF is nowhere near the mad dog that Tywin is.

So, you're saying that Littlefinger will be announcing to the world that he has Sansa Stark, prime suspect in the murder of Tyrion Lannister, who was stolen from Lannister control? Don't you think Tywin will have something to say about that? And what happens to the Tyrells when Tywin gets his hands on Littlefinger?

As for Littlefinger being preferable to Tywin, he's willing to participate in the regicide of the very king he persuaded the Tyrells to ally with. He's obviously got big dreams, is very dangerousand completely untrustworthy. Why would they seek to empower this man? Hell, why trust him at all?

Other points of quibbling: I wouldn't include Dorne in an Lannister power bloc and the crownlands don't bring much to the table because it is mostly the area around the capital with relatively few men and resources. The stormlands may fall under Lannister influence, but it's a weak hold as long as Stannis is alive. So the real strength will come from the Westerlands, the Riverlands, the Neck and the North, which is plenty when the time comes to butt heads with Highgarden.

Well, I think at this point most of the Storm Lords are back allied with the crown, and Joffrey is nominally a Baratheon. Stannis meanwhile has 1500 men and a mercenary navy he can't pay, so I'd think the Tyrells might well count the Stormlands in that bloc. Dorne too, since, as far as they know, Dorne are loyal allies about to be bound to the throne by a blood tie of their own.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

We know that she is close enough to be heard clearly above the din of the feast, and Tyrion has just had wine dumped all over his head. We can also logically deduce that she is not in front of the table because Tyrion would have most certainly seen her approach. And I hope you agree that she was not on the table. So the only logical conclusion was that she was behind the table, behind the guests but still close enough to be heard.

This appearance is several minutes before the pie-cutting. So her location at this moment doesn't much matter, but you still have it wrong.

She is standing, leaning on her cane, so she can't have been seated near to Tyrion, else why stand to approach Joffrey? She could have just raised her voice.

She could easily have been in front of the table, however. Tyrion doesn't mention seeing her approach because he's distracted by Joffrey screaming at him. In fact I think at this precise moment Tyrion might be crawling around on the ground, I'd have to check.

With her behind him then, why would you expect Tyrion to be focused on Lady O the entire time Joffrey is in his face and then he is watching the pie ceremony?

No way of knowing she's behind him at these moments, and no reason to think so unless you need to construct a sequence of events where she poisons the pie.

You can't take absence of notice as proof that she has left the area.

I certainly can't take it as proof that she's been standing there the whole time, and indeed, I can logically conclude that someone would have noticed: minutes pass while Joffrey returns to his seat, the pie is wheeled out, he heads down to cut it, etc, and the head table is facing the crowd. Hundreds of people don't see Olenna Tyrell lurking around the pies?

There is also no mention that she ever left, and there is no mention whatsoever of Garlen reaching over and dropping something into the chalice even though Tyrion is standing right there, and yet this is taken as an unimpeachable truth by the wine crowd.

There's no mention of her putting it in the pie, and yet you take that as truth.

The sequence is exactly this: cut, pigeons, twirl, pie. The servant was all ready to do his job the moment the ceremony was concluded, so obviously it was not brought in directly from the kitchen or through some back door. They are right there, all ready to be served.

We're back to you imposing an arbitrary timescale again. From ASOS, Tyrion VIII:

Joffrey and Margaery joined hands to lift the greatsword and swung it down together in a silvery arc. When the piecrust broke, the doves burst forth in a swirl of white feathers, scattering in every direction, flapping for the windows and the rafters. A roar of delight went up from the benches, and the fiddlers and pipers in the gallery began to play a sprightly tune. Joff took his bride in his arms, and whirled her around merrily.

A serving man placed a slice of hot pigeon pie in front of Tyrion and covered it with a spoon of lemon cream.

Note firstly that this takes place several minutes after Lady Olenna apparently starts loitering around behind the high table without attracting any attention.

Secondly, "whirled her around merrily" could easily mean "danced with her for the duration of the song, while the pies are served."

Thirdly, there's absolutely no mention of exactly how much time elapses between that dance and Tyrion being served his pie. Could've been immediately, could've been five minutes, could've been ten. All we can say for sure is that nothing important happened in between times.

Nobody says there was one servant for each guest...

Well, you do. At least, one servant for each guest on the high table, poised ready and waiting with a plate of pie and a bowl of cream.

...neither was there an entire squad of servants scurrying back and forth with pies in their hands -- one slip up and lord or lady whosit winds up with pie in their face.

Agreed, that's why an orderly array of trolleys is the best explanation. One or two per row for the great and good, and one or less per table for the hoi-polloi down below. That covers it easily, without taking too long and without stepping on anybody's toes, and without dropping any pies.

Surely you'll admit that dropping food is much less likely with some trolleys in the mix? I mean, bear in mind I am acknowledging there's no textual evidence for trolleys, it's just that the presence of trolleys or similar is the most logical scenario. Consider this, individual serving men roaming around the room, a plate or two at a time, but replenishing their stock from trolleys at the side of room? That is also more likely than the absence of trolleys: how else would they drag all this stuff up from the kitchens? Are there dumbwaiters in the throne room?

Tyrion gives ample description of the hall, the food, the servants and the guests. There is no mention of any trolleys. Honestly, you poo poo the idea that Lady O stayed where she was the whole time, but then you go ahead and invent something like a trolley to serve the pie. I spell that Hippo with a capital Crit.

There's no mention of candles, or forks, or... probably all kinds of other shit that we can reasonably infer would be there. Napkins. Can you imagine there weren't napkins? Yet I don't recall their being mentioned.

The idea that a great feast would be catered without the waitstaff using trolleys or some other conveyance (e.g. dumbwaiters) is frankly absurd. Why would they make it hard on themselves? Furthermore, I'm sure any research at all into medieval banqueting would reveal the use of trolleys. They certainly use them at fancy banquets today. I spell that Dip with a capital Shit.

All that cutting, slicing, handing and carrying from the kitchen to the table would have taken minutes. The pie is served in seconds. It says so in the book. How many throne rooms do you think there are in the world where the kitchen is in the very next room?

This is your only good point. I was wrong, I was assuming some large feasting hall or dining room; it is unlikely the throne room would have kitchens nearby (although not impossible; a king's gotta eat while he's throning... but they probably wouldn't be the main kitchens to cater for a feast).

However, if anything this just provides more evidence for the existence of trolleys. Did they carry all that shit up to the throne room by hand? How did they keep it warm?

No mention of individual servants with either pie or spoons in their hands.

I agree. It's your theory that posits there was one servant per guest at the high table, each with a plate of pie and a bowl of cream, ready to pounce at a moment's notice.

It was obviously all very orderly: pies lined up in a row with a handful of servants to serve them and a few more to dab the lemon cream on top.

With the pies all lined up like that, on some kind of table (possibly with wheels), Olenna had no way to guarantee which pie would be Tyrion's. You can say that the table was as long as the high table, with pies supposedly lined up corresponding to the guests, but with waiters coming and going grabbing two or more plates at a time, she's taking a hell of a risk.

Not to mention that, per the Tyrion quote above, it's the same serving man taking care of pie and cream both.

This gets the food to table quickly, efficiently and without a lot of confusion.

How is spreading the work across more people more efficient, or less confusing? I'm telling you dog, one or two waiters per row with a trolley, it's the best way.

Geez, your scenario sounds more like frat party than a royal wedding.

I Have Just Been Zinged, And I Like It

[Ser No One]

I believe Grody Brody has answered quite well to some points, so I won't waste time covering them all. But you have repeated some of your arguments, and not answered some of my comments on your theory.

Once again, I should say that I am definitely not absolute about the wine theory. I simply believe the story is written in a way that doesn't allow certainty one way or another, and you can certainly not be as absolute as you are about the pie theory

The poison is deployed before it reaches Tyrion's place. Let's start with the facts and try a little deductive reasoning: the pie is cut, the pigeons fly out, Joff twirls Margy "merrily" and the next thing Tyrion sees is the pie being placed. So from this, we can conclude that the pies for the head table at least are not being run from the kitchen but are already lined up, ready to be served.

OK, I understood that the poison is deployed before. So, you have only two choices: poisoning it on the table where all the plates are staying until the end of the cutting (which is probably several meters away anyway, if it even exists) and guess magically what slice will be Tyrion's, or poison it in the waiter's hands once he's walking with it. Plain impossible. That allows me to conclude that even with a table it is already difficult to do: how the hell do you guess which slice Tyrion will be given? That is where you need a table right behind the head table where all plates are lain in perfect order. Except there is absolutely no need for that in reality, you can have a table with all plates lain randomly and it would still be as efficient. How does Olenna (an old lady on a cane) cross the distance to the table in a few seconds without being noticed by anyone?

The most logical place for this is behind the head table so that servants are not blocking the view of the cutting ceremony or reaching over the front of the table trying to serve the guests. So now we have the pies in very close proximity to the table and, to avoid any additional confusion, they are most likely lined up one for each place.

That is one of your numerous assumptions. And even if it is so, it's still hard for Olenna to be sure which slice will be intended for Tyrion.

Is there text that states this explicitly? No, but this is the most logical way it would be done to serve the pies quickly and without a big clusterfuck of servers, plates and pies at the head table. With Lady O known to be very close to Tyrion, it is certainly plausible that she knew which pie was to be his and she could pinch the poison into the filling in the blink of an eye as the servant was watching the pigeons. Certainly more plausible that reaching three feet off the surface of a table in full view of 200 people, let alone Tyrion and Sansa who are standing right there, without being seen.

Is it the most logical way though? Any capable waiter knows how to carry more than one plate. Maybe 4 by himself in only one trip. There is bound to be a lot of waiters for the head table. So they could also all get out of the kitchen carrying their 4 plates and serve 4 people instantly, without any need for a table. I'm not even saying that this is what happened, but a need for a table is not definite for Tyrion and the other guests to be served quickly. And like I said, even if there is a table, there is absolutely no need for it to be 3 feet away, it is probably meters away, so as to leave room for the people eating at the head table if they want to get up and move. And there is no need either for each plate to be dedicated to one person. This is pie, as long as you have the right number of slices you can bring any slice to anyone.

Who says the rock needs to dissolve for it to take affect, and who says it did not dissolve?

Nobody says anything of the sort, although it would make sense to imagine that a crystal would hardly dissolve in a solid. But this is just illustrating one more assumption that you have to make to build your theory.

You also say that the rock needs to dissolve to affect the person ingesting it, by stating that the effect was completed when Joff drank wine.

And it's not only about taking effect, it's also about not chewing on it. Even if it's small, chewing on something hard would be enough reason to spit it out. That's an unnecessary risk when you could as well poison Tyrion's wine.

As people have mentioned, there was no sign that Joffrey bit into anything hard, so it is more than plausible that it at least softened up in the heat and moisture, providing a highly concentrated dose of poison to whomever ate it.

Or he didn't bite into something hard because there was nothing hard in the pie... And not because it dissolved a little bit, but because it was never in it.

Sure, there is a chance Tyrion would not eat it, and that probably crossed Lady O's mind as J and T were fighting over the wine, but in the end it was that or nothing. So given that Lady O has a high degree of probability that Tyrion would eat at least one bite, and a high degree of probably in exactly which bite he would take, and exactly when and where the pie could be easily poisoned, it is the only logical choice.

No. The only logical choice if you want to poison Tyrion is to poison his wine, that he is far more likely to have than his pie.

Because unless you are completely stupid, you would realize that the pie is a much easier target than the wine.

Great argument. It's like saying "unless you're completely stupid you'd know that girafes are blue. It's said with confidence, which doesn't mean that it's true. I am quite sure that I am not stupid, and the wine is still probably the easiest target. After all, it gives you a chance to give him the poison at anytime through the feast, rather than at one very limited time, at the end (when he might already be gone). Besides, the pie is much less efficient since Tyrion may have gone already, and anybody would know he's gonna drink a lot of wine. And anyway, your whole theory (like really all of it) relies on something that isn't slightly described in the book, a table right behind the guests where all the plates are lain, explicitly meant for one person.

You say there is no text to say the pies were on a table near the head table. Then how did they get served so quickly? Are you going to invent a five- or ten-minute delay between the cutting and the serving whiles servants rush back to the kitchen and all the guests just stop what they were doing and stare at one another with their mouths agape? Were the pies lying on the floor? floating in the air? Obviously and incontrovertibly, they were very close to the table, either on a table of their own or being held by a servant.

Exactly they might be held by a servant. You need to realise that there is no need for a table when you can have one servant for one, two or three people. There are probably lots of servants taking care of the head table, they could simply be waiting with the pie in their hands. Now will you tell me how you poison a pie in the hands of a servant, right under his nose? The servant is probably not right behind Tyrion either, but a few meters away, not to embarrass the guests with his presence. So Olenna has to cross this distance in a few seconds (nice for an old lady) and then poison a plate (the right plate) under the nose of a servant? How is this easier than poisoning a cup of wine?

Another option like Grody Brody says, would be trolleys. Then impossible for Olenna to poison Tyrion's slice without the waiter knowing it, even impossible for her to know what slice is his. There is no less talk about trolleys in the text than there is about a table, than there is about a million servants. The three options are completely open, but you need it to be a table for your scenario to work. And even with a table on which all plates are put before being distributed, there is still no way for Lady O to know which plate to poison, and it would still call attention on her if she were lurking near this table, and putting her finger in a piece of pie to put the poison in.

And by the way, it's still a book, which means it's almost impossible to give definite conclusions as to how long an action lasts, and to know if between two events (for instance the dancing and the slice on the table) there is not some time when simply nothing worth interesting happens. And this isn't serving my theory, I'm not saying it to discredit yours, I'm just saying, it's a book not a movie, you can't act like it's possible to measure everything by the second.

So rather than risk approaching Tyrion's wine, which is on the head table in front of 200 pairs of eyes

Right, because all along the wedding everybody keeps staring at Tyrion's cup. Makes a lot of sense.

It is much safer and more discrete to do the pie, which is behind the head table and out of sight and out of mind to everyone but a few servants who will undoubtedly be looking up at the rare spectacle of pigeons flying around the rafters of the throne room, if only for the spit second it takes to pinch the poison into the pointy end.

Again, nice assumptions. And it doesn't take a split second to go to a table that is probably meters away, find the right plate and put something in it. Especially when you're an old lady leaning on a cane.

The dwarf show was nothing more than a final dig at a pain-in-the-ass rival. There was no way to predict it would lead to a spat that involved the chalice or the wine or any of the other dozen things that had to happen in near-perfect order for the chalice to be placed right where it needed to be at exactly the right time for the poisoning.

Ok, no point for the dwarf show. So it's just an unnecessary risk of annoying Tyrion and making him leave the wedding. By the way it would provide the perfect opportunity to poison his wine rather than pie. Just saying.

Nobody knows that Tyrion and Sansa are not doing it except Tywin and maybe Cersei. The north will not rally to Tywin, but they will rally to the only male heir to Eddard Stark and therefore the rightful Lord of Winterfell. Lady Olenna is playing the long game here and she recognizes that an arrangement between Lannister, Frey and Stark cemented by blood ties produces an equally strong bloc to rival Highgarden's own, which is cemented by blood ties between Tyrell, Redwyne and Hightower.

They won't if he's a Lannister. Unless they have raised him themselves to despise the Lannisters. And then he wouldn't send his banners South for this. Two other things: banners may just refuse to go, which they occasionally do, and would surely do for a matter that doesn't concern them at all; and the Boltons are warden of the North, not the heir to Winterfell. So, not really a big threat, and even less of a big threat a few years from now when this heir to Ned Stark is all grown up and ready to call his banners, because the heir to the throne would be as much Tyrell as Lannister. So really really not a danger. Not as serious as the risk of Joff beating up Marge at one point and a second Kinglsaying happening.

The difference between the first bite of pie and Joff's incapacitation is about half the difference between the first drink of wine and incapacitation. But look very closely as to what happens within that 10 seconds or so. Again, straight from the text: pie is eaten, slight cough, another bite, bit dry, slug of wine, bigger cough, I want to see you ride that, kof, pig.., another drink, big big cough back into the chalice, it's the pie, kok, the pie, I can't I can't... So here we have the crystal in the pie that admittedly has not dissolved fully yet because there is no caustic agent like alcohol to speed at along.

Ok so it has not dissolved, but it's still not dangerous to put it in a pie, so that the person eating might chew on it? I'd just like to point out that now you need the crystal not to be entirely dissolved but still a little bit to fit your theory. Why not, but it starts to be a lot of assumptions.

But within a few seconds of Joffrey drinking wine and pushing the poison down his throat where it takes affect, he starts choking. Perfectly in sync with the Cressen poisoning based on the fact that the poison had to leave Joffrey's mouth and undergo rapid dissolution in the wine in order to take affect.

And if the pie sequence is too long for you, then the wine sequence must be totally out of bounds. So how exactly did Joffrey get poisoned?

Still not perfectly in sync since Cressen can't even say a word before falling. Joff seems much more resistant. I'm just saying that if you're ready to accept a little time difference, then why are you refusing so much to accept a longer one? It seems to me it should be no time difference at all, or ok with a time difference that is under a minute or so.

Littlefinger is on a boat. Boats move on water. Sound carries over water for great distances, so it is eminently plausible that sometime during the night -- because Sansa doesn't reach the boat until nearly dawn -- that Littlefinger heard the bells and knew exactly what it meant. At the very least, it is beyond magical thinking to say that with an operation of this magnitude, that Littlefinger did not have some way of knowing what was happening in the capital, if only to ensure that the whole thing wasn't a bust and he needs to get is ass to Braavos tout suite.

Ok why not, though I imagined that the bells didn't necessarily mean that the King was dead, but could also mean any kind of danger, which might be the case of the King's uncle were to die at his wedding... And I also thought that the man supposed to inform him was Dontos. But you may be right on this.

See, when you make sense I am not afraid to say it.

Because Joffrey is the one who can feel what is happening in his own throat. Honestly, your objections are borderline ludicrous. He knows something is wrong and he knows wherever he feels solids in his mouth, not liquids, he is having a reaction. If either the taste or the feeling or anything was because of the wine, why does he blame it on the pie? You can't get a better POV perspective than from the guy who is actually choking.

Same for yours. You're trusting the word of somebody who's choking. He feels he can't breathe, of course he's going to think a piece of pie is stuck in his throat, what else? Or are you saying that he understood it was poison instantly, and he understands that it was in his pie?

You can't get a worse POV perspective than the guy who's choking on such a matter. A guy who chokes gets in a panic, meaning that he's probably not rational, he's not going to imagine for a second that the wine might have provoked this (which by the way, even in your theory, it did, by allowing the crystal to dissolve completely, so if Joff was to say that one of the things he ingested caused this, he should still blame the wine).

Yes, but since you only believe in things that are explicitly and unambiguously stated in the text, where is your proof that they were involved in anything at this point? And when do you suppose LF and LO first started plotting to kill the king? At their very first meeting at Bitterbridge, when the hardly new each other? What indication do you have that Lady O or Margy were in any way distressed by what Sansa told them? Certainly not by their words or actions. And certainly not by Joffrey's posture toward Margy at the wedding. Read please. He is tickled pink to be getting Margy instead of Sansa. He is dancing with her, sharing wine and food with her, picking her up and twirling her around. It's like the nerdy high school freshman is marrying the senior head cheerleader and prom queen. So there is certainly no danger that Margy is going to be murdered on the wedding night, so there is no plausible reason you can give as to why Lady O has to kill Joffrey at the wedding in front of hundreds of guests when it could very easily be done by Margy and/or Loras quietly and in private and after a baby has been produced and the Tyrell connection to the Iron Throne is secure.

It amazes me how thick people are in that they don't see what a monumental setback Joffrey's death was to the Tyrell game.

Ah but like I've been saying all along, I'm not hell bent on one or the other theory. I like both, I am just more inclined to believe the wine theory. However I think that Martin has kept the doubt intentionally, and he may never reveal the truth. With what material we have, it's impossible to decide one way or another. Certainly not possible to use absolute terms like you do.

However I'm going to risk an answer here. I have absolutely no proof from the text, like you do for your table, so I'm gonna use the same tool you do: logic. It makes slightly more sense for LF to approach them with this plan early on rather than when they get to King's Landing and could very easily tell on him at any opportunity. About Joff's behavior and the Tyrell's behaviors, please see Grody Brody's post, there's no need to write the same thing twice. Joff was the same with Sansa at the beginning, it doesn't mean he will stay like this.

Now I might be really thick (actually I'm really not, but you seem to like implying that of anyone who's not agreeing with you), but I don't see the setback.

After Joffrey's death and Tyrion's framing, Mace is sitting on the jury with Tywin. Then his daughter is promised to Tommen (which she was sure to be as royal marriage is what is holding the alliance together), a young, easily manipulated boy. Marge quickly manages to influence him a lot, and she clearly intends to do so until after their wedding. What's more, he is no threat to her, and therefore no threat to Loras who will not become a second Kingslayer.

Even not considering the following events with Mace becoming Hand because they were not foreseeable, their house is far from weakened, on the contrary.

You may say that they could have kept Joffrey, got a child under way and then killed him, but that is nothing less than a stretch. He could have harmed her way before he fathered a child on her, leading to a second Kingslaying. And even if they had a child and managed to kill him quietly, do you really believe Tywin and Cersei would have gone down without a fight? No, they would have kept the child in custody, and kept control of the Kingdom. Or at least they would have tried. This way, they are not even suspects in this plot, and they get a growing influence on the King and the Kingdom quietly over the years.

[TerrorVoid]

LF says he was spreading rumors about Joffrey the monster in camp while telling the Tyrells that he was a peach. But that in no way implies that he was plotting with Lady O to kill the king way back at Bitterbridge. There is no indication in the text that they had ever met each other, let alone trust each other to commit regicide.

That's why I say, that they didn't conspire, but LF lead her into his plot.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Can I retract calling John Suburbs a dipshit? I got overexcited.

Anyway, I wanted to bring up another point. I'm struggling to see exactly why Littlefinger needed a murder at the wedding to be a distraction in order for Sansa to escape.

Look at the sequence of events. Joffrey dies, and Sansa leaves, along with half the guests. She's even talking to someone at this point, although I forget who. Then she goes back to her chambers, gets changed, and heads off to the godswood, meets Dontos, sneaks out of the Red Keep and out to sea.

Now consider the plan, as stated by Littlefinger: kill Joffrey at the wedding, and while everybody is distracted, sneak Sansa out of the Red Keep.

The two marry up very poorly. Sansa's escape has her sneaking through the Red Keep with Dontos, and it's therefore imperative that the Red Keep is empty of people. But it's not. Lots of people are heading back to their chambers, distressed at having just watched the king die.

Now, perhaps Littlefinger planned to have Tyrion arrested, but I believe that's been dealt with elsewhere. It's most likely an unpredictable turn of events, like so much in this story. But if Tyrion's not arrested, how does this plan work? Unless he is, there's no way Sansa will be heading back to her chambers alone. Either Tyrion accompanies her, or, if he has to stay and make himself useful, he'll do the husbandly thing and send someone to walk Sansa back. Will she be able to sneak out again? It's unknown.

To my mind, the murder serves as a useful distraction for the palace guard, but it still leaves a hell of a lot of people moving around the Red Keep. The chief benefit of the wedding is that is entirely empties the Red Keep of people, so it makes more sense, for me, to have Sansa leave while the wedding feast is still going on. Here are two ways that could work:

1. Littlefinger gives Sansa some poison to take on the morning of the wedding that will make her piss or shit herself, or throw up, during the feast; she then has a plausible excuse to leave, and then simply has to have any servant attending on her sent on a wild goose chase while she sneaks out to the godswood.
2. Littlefinger conspires to have Tyrion and Sansa ejected from the wedding - say, by arranging a spat between the king and Tyrion - and then Sansa goes to the godswood, "to pray". Tyrion passes out drunk, and nobody looks for Sansa until the next morning, by which point she's long gone.

Before anybody breaks my balls, yes, these are speculations. But doesn't it seem like there are significantly less risky ways to get Sansa out of town than by murdering someone at a wedding feast? No matter who you think the target is, the murder could go wrong in any number of ways. I believe the extra risk requires an additional motive beyond getting out of town, and while that motive might exist for the Tyrells, what motive is there for Littlefinger?

Killing Tyrion stops his embezzlements being uncovered, but there are other problems with this theory which have been litigated at tremendous length.

Killing Joffrey doesn't benefit Littlefinger at all.

His stated motive?

"Why should I wish him dead?" Littlefinger shrugged. "I had no motive. Besides, I am a thousand leagues away in the Vale. Always keep your foes confused. If they are never certain who you are or what you want, they cannot know what you are like to do next. Sometimes the best way to baffle them is to make moves that have no purpose, or even seem to work against you.

We're supposed to believe that Littlefinger orchestrated the murder of the king, risking his own death in the process, for no good reason at all.

[John Suburbs]

Fucking hell this is hard work.

Well, you're ignoring all the holes in your theory. I'm stating the holes in mine.

As for "making things up out of whole cloth and using it to support your own predetermined conclusion"... well, need I state the obvious? (Maybe I do, you already missed the irony inherent in Garlan the Gallant being a poisoner.)

Yes, trying to argue a completely discredited theory is always fucking hard work. You might as well try arguing that the world is flat and the moon is made of cheese.

There are no holes in the pie scenario except the imaginary ones you keep creating. Everything I put forward is derived from simple, logical conclusions based on the text: the time discrepancy, Lady O's position, the speed of the pie service... while everything needed to support the wine theory is completely made-up: Littlefinger's precognizance, Lady O's fear of Joffrey, Joffrey's hatred for Margy, the weaker diluted poison, Garlen the coward...

Now, now, there's no need to start calling people names, ya great flippin' dingleberry

I wasn't the one who started the name-calling. Scroll up and you see the words "stupid", "idiot" and "dipshit" directed at me.

That's another good explanation for why they'd let him take her. But that still doesn't overcome the risks inherent in giving him Sansa.

There are risks in everything in the Game of Thrones. For Lady O there were two options: Littlefinger or Tywin. She chose the least objectionable.

The point I was making was not, "It takes years, so it's nothing to worry about." The point is, "It'll take years, so there's no need to rush." You're trying to explain why Tyrion must have been killed at Joffrey's wedding feast, but their motive allows tthe Tyrells to dawdle, and to choose a less risky plan.

Lady Olenna is leaving for Highgarden days after the wedding and LF is supposed to be in the Vale. Tyrion could father a child on Sansa at any moment, so there is not time to "dawdle." This is the last, best chance of killing him before distance and logistics complicate matters to the point of impossibility. How easy do you think it is to pull off an assassination of this magnitude and get away with clean hands if you have to do it through proxies from a hundred leagues away?

I've discussed why elsewhere why the Lannister hold on the North is extremely tenuous, and, as mentioned elsewhere, Tyrion will remain Master of Coin for a little while yet. As for the difficulty of killing him in Winterfell: they have years to plan it. And how hard is it, really? Send up a travelling salesman with casks of wine, the best of which is laced with a slow-acting poison. And when Tyrion opens that cask... BAM! Out jumps a dwarf who stabs him right in the tits, it's the perfect murder.

The Lannister hold is tenuous now, but with a blood heir to Winterfell if becomes much more solid. And they don't have years to plan everything, within a year or less, they'll have to plot the murder of a little baby plus the murder of Tyrion to make sure he doesn't father any more. And in any event, Sansa would still be under the control of the Lannisters so she merely gets married off to another one, as many people have commented. Tyrion had to go at the wedding because it offers the best opportunity to kill him and it provides the cover needed to pull off the other crucial part of the plot: the removal of Sansa from Lannister control.

As for the Sansa moon tea angle, it's open speculation, but not so implausible as you make out. She's already been sick at the thought of having Tyrion's child, and the Lannisters might kill her once she has Tyrion's child. I doubt she'd take much convincing to abort it. At the wedding, Olenna is still trying to get her to come to Highgarden. And once she's queen, Margaery will have as much access to Sansa as she wants. Perfectly possible to befriend her and try to make sure she aborts the heir to the North

Possible, yes, but completely unsupported by any text. And Sansa would have no reason to be taking moon tea because she is not having any sex with Tyrion -- not that Margy, Lady O or anyone else besides Shae and Tywin know that. You say that you are not making things up, but this is completely made up.

He couldn't have.

Finally, we are getting somewhere. So now for this crucial part of the plan -- if the chalice is not where it is supposed to be it cannot be poisoned and nobody dies -- how can you square your admission with the notion that the plan all along was to poison the wine and have Tyrion take the blame?

Um... did you read A Feast for Crows?

Yes, Joffrey is dead in Feast and Cersei and Jaime may be stupid but they are not "crazy" and neither was Joffrey. What's your point?

Leverage, schmeverage. The important thing is to eliminate the blood tie. Roose Bolton doesn't expect the Lannisters to send troops north to support him, why would he return the favour?

And bear in mind that there's already a huge power vacuum in the North. Hell, there's an actual war going on. As long as whoever wins doesn't have power elsewhere, why would the Reach care?

Leverage is everything in geo-politics, and a blood tie to the seat of power in the north -- even a fake one -- gives Tywin the upper hand. Roose Bolton is Warden of the North by the grace of Tywin Lannister. It Tywin instructs the king to name Tyrion the new Warden until his son comes of age he will do it.

And sorry, but it is beyond ludicrous to think that Lady O does not care who controls the north. If it is so irrelevant, why is everyone falling over themselves to secure Sansa's hand? (Sorry to keep throwing text at you, but it would be nice if you could some text, any text, to support your contentions.) The north is the single biggest realm in the kingdom, it has the most men and resources and a port on the Narrow Sea. It will tip the balance of power in favor of whomever controls it. Lady O has lived her life in comfort knowing that the North was not under anyone's control but the Starks'. Now that it is on the verge of going to someone who does have power elsewhere, and that someone is the rabidly murderous lord who sits due north of the Reach, she will go to great lengths, even commit murder at a big public event, to prevent that from happening.

So, you're saying that Littlefinger will be announcing to the world that he has Sansa Stark, prime suspect in the murder of Tyrion Lannister, who was stolen from Lannister control? Don't you think Tywin will have something to say about that? And what happens to the Tyrells when Tywin gets his hands on Littlefinger?

As for Littlefinger being preferable to Tywin, he's willing to participate in the regicide of the very king he persuaded the Tyrells to ally with. He's obviously got big dreams, is very dangerousand completely untrustworthy. Why would they seek to empower this man? Hell, why trust him at all?

I don't know what Littlefinger's plans for Sansa is. Do you? But don't you see how this just makes Littlefinger the better option for Lady O? He has her, but he can't use her. So neither he nor Tywin has a firm grasp on the north. A definite win for Lady O.

And he is not willing to participate in regicide because the plan is not to kill the king. You said so yourself with the admission that LF could not have known where the chalice was going to be. They both are plotting the murder of Tyrion, so they are both untrusting of each other, but with Tyrion gone and Sansa in the Vale, Lady O has more than just trust to ensure that her house's interests are being met -- she has leverage.

[The Ned's Little Girl]

His stated motive?

We're supposed to believe that Littlefinger orchestrated the murder of the king, risking his own death in the process, for no good reason at all.

To me, Littlefinger saying "I had no motive" is him saying that nobody would suspect him of having a hand in Joffrey's murder. Like, "why would anybody think I did it? I didn't have a motive and besides, I'm actually far away from here" wink wink nudge nudge.

[UnFit Finlay]

Sansa is the obvious suspect, but she is missing and no one can question her. She obviously abhorred being married to the imp so she killed him and fled the capital. Sure, she must have had help, but there is no reason to inspect the ledgers as part of any investigation because that has nothing to do with Sansa's motivation. Tyrion himself suspected Cersei for the attempt on the Blackwater, and both Pod and Bronn know that, so no connection to LF or Lady O there either. Again, your objections are based on assumptions dreamed up entirely in your head and have no basis in either the text or a rational view of reality.

Oh right. Because Tywin and Jaime aren't going to question Cersei and try and get to the bottom of it are they? And when she points out that she had no motivation to kill Tyrion on Blackwater, since he was in charge of the Cities defences? Will they just forget the whole thing or look into the other possibilities? The Lannisters realising that they've been manipulated into fighting each other would be disastrous for Littlefinger.

Sansa's motivation isn't in question is it? It's her allies motivation. After all, if they could poison ONE person at a Royal feast then what's stopping them going after anybody else?

Also childish insults and repeatedly saying "I'm right" does not actually make you right.

There is no way in a million years that you can say Joffrey's actions even come close to Aerys or Aegon the Unworthy or Maegor or Black Harran or countless other tyrants in the history of Westeros. It seems all shocking to you because you live in the 20th Century and you had a birds-eye view of a beheading. The fact -- again, facts on my side, not on yours -- is that no one until the High Sparrow raised a peep over the beheading at the sept. The only objections that did emerge came from Tywin, Tyrion and Cersei because it was a foolish thing to do and robbed them of a valuable hostage that they could have traded for Jaime, not because they thought Joffrey was crazy.

Erm. You brought up the actions of previous rulers. I said that, from the Tyrells point of view, allying yourself with an impulsive King with such poor judgement was incredibly risky. It might not have been sole reason that they wanted him gone but it would explain why they questioned Sansa over him. Why exactly did they bother asking Sansa about the "troubling tales" they'd heard about him?

Also Ned was to join the Night's Watch, not be traded for Jaime, and the High Septon at the time also went crazy about the execution claiming that they'd "profaned Baelor's Sept with Blood, after lying to him". That's a direct quote from Clash. If you're going to say "the facts are on my side" in place of an argument, you should probably get them correct.

I live in the Twenty First Century, incidentally. I have done for a while.

And are you talking about Sansa, his "aunt"? Nothing more than snotty braggadocio trying to prove what an all-powerful king he is. And there is no way that Margy or Lady O even knew about that conversation anyway, so to use it as an excuse to prove they were oh so worried about poor Margy is laughable -- pathetic, but laughable all the same.

Again, with the insults. Oh and some conjecture there too! Lovely. Do you have any proof that Joffrey wasn't serious about it then? What about when he demanded Robb Stark's head be served to Sansa? He certainly seemed serious about that. What with insisting that he wasn't jesting, that he was going to make Sansa kiss it and all.

Anyway, point is, Joffrey was arrogant and unbalanced. It was only a matter of time before the threatened the wrong person and ended up with a sword in his back.

Robert and Joffrey are more alike than you realize, obviously. You think Joffrey is interested in ruling the realm? Margaery has all the skills she needs to get Joffrey to do whatever she wants, at least for a while. He is over the moon at marrying her rather than Sansa -- again, evidence taken directly from the text -- so she will be putty in his hand right up until he gets bored with her. Seven years is the typical shelf-life for wedded bliss -- I give Joffrey less than half that time, but by then there could be two, even three, Tyrell heirs to the IT.

Joffrey was over the moon at marrying Sansa originally as well. He was the perfect little Prince until he had power over her and then he turned into a monster.

Joffrey dismissed the opinions of his Mother, the Queen Regent and mocked Tywin, one of the best Commanders in Westeros, and yet you expect him to listen to Margaery?

After the wedding, Cersei will be shipped off within a fortnight, so she is of no consequence. Joffrey could die accidentally just as easily as Robert did, and yes, control of the children is paramount, but if Margy has the wits the gods gave a goose, she will have Loras and an entire retinue of Tyrell guards to keep them safe.

Right. 'Cause Tywin would allow that.

Rhaenys and Aegon were killed during a brutal sack and the collapse of a 300-year dynasty. The two situations are not even remotely comparable.

Yup. A brutal sack that was part of a Rebellion against an impulsive, paranoid and deranged King, which is exactly the road Joffrey was heading down. That's not even my feelings. It's Tyrion's. Tywin, who knew Aerys very well, didn't really object to the comparison either.

She is 17 and he is 9. He has yet to grow into the man he will become so there is no way you, me or anyone else can state categorically whether the Tyrells will have sole influence over him for the rest of his life. As I said, Tommen is more thoughtful and circumspect than Joffrey, which indicates strongly that he will make up his own mind about things as he matures.

I never said they'd be the "sole influence" I said they'd be a huge influence, which they will be. His "father", brother and Grandfather are dead, his sister is in Dorne, his Uncles are either dead, attainted traitors or off fighting while his Mother has gone crazy. The Tyrells are the closest thing to a proper family unit that he has.

And do you honestly believe that Joffrey's children will become just like him? Need I remind you that Joffrey is the product of Cersei and Jaime, neither of whom are "crazy" like Joffrey.

Joffrey wasn't raised by Jaime. He was "raised" by Cersei and an absent Robert, who he idolized, and tried to emulate without a real understanding of who Robert actually was. It gave him a misguided sense of his importance as well as an appalling view of women. Those are qualities he'll pass on to his children. Perhaps not directly but by the same way Robert passed them on to him.

And if things play out as you say, and Joffrey is killed in short order by someone because he is so "crazy, then Margy gets to be Queen Regent for the next 12 to 15 years, unlike with Tommen who could die for any number of reasons in the next five years, which would leave the Tyrells with nothing. So congratulations, you are the first person I've ever seen to posit an argument for your point that is in fact an argument against it.

Queen Regent isn't a given. Ned was supposed to serve as Joffrey's Regent, and Kevan was briefly Tommen's. She also won't be Queen Regent if Joffrey dies before she gets pregnant, which was the point that you've conveniently ignored. She also won't be Queen Regent if Joffrey's misrule leads to another rebellion which, as I pointed out above, is a comparison that at least one character in the books has made.

Oh and another insult instead of an argument. Duly noted.

Incidentally if the Tyrells wanted to stop the Lannisters getting a hold of the North, why kill Tyrion on Joffrey's wedding night and not his own? They might've been aware that Tyrion hadn't consummated the marriage AFTER the wedding night but they could not have been aware of it beforehand. If a Lannister heir to Winterfell was such an immediate danger to them then why did their entire plan to prevent it hinge on the possibility that the lecherous little Imp would be "kind" to his wife?

[Ygrain]

To me, Littlefinger saying "I had no motive" is him saying that nobody would suspect him of having a hand in Joffrey's murder. Like, "why would anybody think I did it? I didn't have a motive and besides, I'm actually far away from here" wink wink nudge nudge.

:agree:

Why would LF pit the Starks and Lannisters against each other? Yet, he did. He thrives in chaos and he undermines the great houses. Joffrey's death undermines the Lannisters again, leaving Cersei in charge, and the Tyrells by weakening their grasp on the throne.

[John Suburbs]

This appearance is several minutes before the pie-cutting. So her location at this moment doesn't much matter, but you still have it wrong.

She is standing, leaning on her cane, so she can't have been seated near to Tyrion, else why stand to approach Joffrey? She could have just raised her voice.

She could easily have been in front of the table, however. Tyrion doesn't mention seeing her approach because he's distracted by Joffrey screaming at him. In fact I think at this precise moment Tyrion might be crawling around on the ground, I'd have to check.

So again, hypocrisy at work: you say that she could not possibly have stood their for "several minutes" because Tyrion doesn't say so, and then in the next breath you say she could have easily walked in front of the table unnoticed because Joffrey is screaming at Tyrion.

Nobody says she was seated near Tyrion. She was clearly standing. She didn't raise her voice, she didn't do a Tarzan yell, she just said her piece.

No way of knowing she's behind him at these moments, and no reason to think so unless you need to construct a sequence of events where she poisons the pie.

I certainly can't take it as proof that she's been standing there the whole time, and indeed, I can logically conclude that someone would have noticed: minutes pass while Joffrey returns to his seat, the pie is wheeled out, he heads down to cut it, etc, and the head table is facing the crowd. Hundreds of people don't see Olenna Tyrell lurking around the pies?

The dais at least is a good 10 feet below the head table. We don't have an exact layout of the room to know if there is room for someone to stand in front of the table, but since you say it would be so odd for an old woman to be standing behind the table where no one is looking, how odd is it that she would be standing in front of the table as the pie ceremony is about to start? And since nothing is true unless it is clearly stated in the text, she couldn't have been in front of it either. She must have been floating -- whoops, sorry, doesn't say that either.

Yes, we can logically conclude that someone would have noticed her still standing behind the table, but since all we have is Tyrion's POV, the only thing that matters is that he did not notice her, which is only plausible if she is standing behind him and completely implausible if she is standing in front of him.

There's no mention of her putting it in the pie, and yet you take that as truth.

Of course, there is no mention of it because then there would be no mystery at all. There is no mention of Garlen or anyone else poisoning the wine and yet that is accepted as truth. Be honestly now, given the two possibilities, which one do you think stands the greater chance of being seen: an tiny old women standing behind everyone slipping a crystal into a pie, or a grown man reaching three feet over a table in full view of an entire room of people?

We're back to you imposing an arbitrary timescale again. From ASOS, Tyrion VIII:

Note firstly that this takes place several minutes after Lady Olenna apparently starts loitering around behind the high table without attracting any attention.

Secondly, "whirled her around merrily" could easily mean "danced with her for the duration of the song, while the pies are served."

Thirdly, there's absolutely no mention of exactly how much time elapses between that dance and Tyrion being served his pie. Could've been immediately, could've been five minutes, could've been ten. All we can say for sure is that nothing important happened in between times.

Again, you invent things that are not in the text and then you dismiss logical conclusions drawn from the text because "it doesn't say that in the text."

The timeline is crystal clear: cut, pigeons, twirl, pie. While Joff and Margy are having this extended dance around the room, what exactly are Tyrion and everyone else doing? Does nobody speak? No movement? Everyone, including the servants who are supposed t be working, is just gazing at the happy couple in dazed awe? From the moment Tyrion is doused with the wine, we have literally a second-by-second account of what transpired, but now suddenly we have a 10-minute gap for no other reason than it serves your purposes.

Well, you do. At least, one servant for each guest on the high table, poised ready and waiting with a plate of pie and a bowl of cream.

No, I never said that. The quote of mine that you list says the exact opposite -- no mention of individual servants with pies and spoons. That is certainly a possibility, but it would be more reasonable that there is one server for perhaps every three to five guests. A lot less confusion that way.

And if you read the text (damn, text again, so sorry), it is the same servant who places the pie and then adds the cream. So no, there is not another servant with a big bowl of cream making his way across the table.

Agreed, that's why an orderly array of trolleys is the best explanation. One or two per row for the great and good, and one or less per table for the hoi-polloi down below. That covers it easily, without taking too long and without stepping on anybody's toes, and without dropping any pies.

Surely you'll admit that dropping food is much less likely with some trolleys in the mix? I mean, bear in mind I am acknowledging there's no textual evidence for trolleys, it's just that the presence of trolleys or similar is the most logical scenario. Consider this, individual serving men roaming around the room, a plate or two at a time, but replenishing their stock from trolleys at the side of room? That is also more likely than the absence of trolleys: how else would they drag all this stuff up from the kitchens? Are there dumbwaiters in the throne room?

Again, no mention of trolleys in the text, even though Tyrion gives a lengthy description of the food, the servants bringing the food, the guests eating the food, what they were wearing, how they behaved, but wheeled trolleys being pushed around the room and behind the head table completely escapes his notice. But they must have been there because otherwise how else can we maintain the fiction that there was all this confusion behind the head table. And then in the next breath, you say Lady O could not have been behind the table, and she certainly cannot stand for "several minutes" because it doesn't say so the in text, so she must have left.

Also, please note that Tyrion is sitting 12 places away from the king, who would be served first, and still Tyrion gets his piece within a matter of seconds -- unless, of course, you invent completely imaginary time gaps because your argument falls apart without it. So that is clear evidence that the pies were all lined up, ready to be served to each guest the moment the ceremony was complete and Lady O could easily deduce whose pie was whose.

And this whole thing is ridiculous anyway because why couldn't they just have the pies in order on the trolley, or why couldn't the servant, who I'll say again served Tyrion immediately, have been standing right behind him holding the pie while the pigeons took flight?

What I'm getting at is that there are all sorts of ways in which the pie could have been poisoned by Lady O behind the table, while there is absolutely no way the wine could have been poisoned right in front of Tyrion, Sansa and 200 other guests.

There's no mention of candles, or forks, or... probably all kinds of other shit that we can reasonably infer would be there. Napkins. Can you imagine there weren't napkins? Yet I don't recall their being mentioned.

The idea that a great feast would be catered without the waitstaff using trolleys or some other conveyance (e.g. dumbwaiters) is frankly absurd. Why would they make it hard on themselves? Furthermore, I'm sure any research at all into medieval banqueting would reveal the use of trolleys. They certainly use them at fancy banquets today. I spell that Dip with a capital Shit.

Please, normal items like forks and napkins are not noticed anymore than the blue sky or the fact that there is oxygen in the room. But descriptions of servants bringing and clearing dishes all night long and no mention of any trolleys means there were no trolleys.

And banquet halls have dumb waiters, but who in the hell builds a throne room with dumbwaiters in it?

This is your only good point. I was wrong, I was assuming some large feasting hall or dining room; it is unlikely the throne room would have kitchens nearby (although not impossible; a king's gotta eat while he's throning... but they probably wouldn't be the main kitchens to cater for a feast).

However, if anything this just provides more evidence for the existence of trolleys. Did they carry all that shit up to the throne room by hand? How did they keep it warm?

No, this is all the more reason why there must have been a permanent table just behind the head table, most likely hidden by a tapestry. (I know, you are allowed to invent all kinds of things to support your arguments but I am not). In this way, the hustle and bustle of getting food to the head table is kept out of sight, and the only movement of servants comes from between the tapestries as they place and then remove dishes. In this case, it would be very easy for Lady O to count 12 places from the king (I know it doesn't say in the text that Lady O can count, but can we at least agree that she can?) and poison the appropriate dish.

How exactly are dishes kept warm on a trolley, not being a trolley expert myself. How likely is it that kitchen is even on the same floor as the throne room? Do they trolley dishes to the stairs, carry them up by hand, put them on another trolley...? Or is it more likely that for the head table at least, dishes are hand-carried to the rear table before placement? This is the royal family backed by Tyrell money, after all, they could easily afford a hundred servants to shuttle dishes back and forth, again from a rear table behind a tapestry, out of sight and out of mind to the high lords and ladies enjoying their feast.

With the pies all lined up like that, on some kind of table (possibly with wheels), Olenna had no way to guarantee which pie would be Tyrion's. You can say that the table was as long as the high table, with pies supposedly lined up corresponding to the guests, but with waiters coming and going grabbing two or more plates at a time, she's taking a hell of a risk.

Not to mention that, per the Tyrion quote above, it's the same serving man taking care of pie and cream both.

Tyrion's waiter had one pie and a spoonful of cream. No indication that waiters are slinging multiple plates at the guests in a mad frenzy. This isn't TGI Fridays. This is the high table at a royal wedding with the leading figures of the realm. They expect to be served quickly, efficiently and most of all elegantly. As I said, all of the commotion is happening behind the table and out of sight and with dishes lined up in an orderly fashion so they can be served with refinement to the high lords and ladies.

How is spreading the work across more people more efficient, or less confusing? I'm telling you dog, one or two waiters per row with a trolley, it's the best way.

No, it isn't. Wheeling trolleys back and forth leads to collisions, plates falling on floors, noise. Servants with soft shoes each carrying one dish or at best a tray of several dishes is quiet, efficient and poses the least risk of accidents. And honestly, I've been to a hundred banquets where the guests are served rather than buffet-style and I have never once seen the waiters wheeling dishes out on trolleys. Talk about fiction.

[UnFit Finlay]

That's another good explanation for why they'd let him take her. But that still doesn't overcome the risks inherent in giving him Sansa.

I don't recall him asking Tywin for Sansa's hand.

I don't know if the risks are that great. Sansa appeared to be worthless at that point, as she was wanted for regicide, the war was all but won, and Littlefinger had as much to lose by revealing her as they do. Less so. They at least had an army to support them.

I was slightly wrong. Littlefinger offered to marry her before Ned was executed, when Tywin would've been out in the field. Cersei thinks about it just before her Walk of Shame in Dance, noting that it was impossible because of his low birth.

A bit off topic but that makes me wonder if Cersei blowing off his proposal is the reason that Littlefinger, as is commonly theorised, convinced Joffrey to execute Ned in order to keep the war going.

[Ser Brandon Badwater]

So again, hypocrisy at work: you say that she could not possibly have stood their for "several minutes" because Tyrion doesn't say so, and then in the next breath you say she could have easily walked in front of the table unnoticed because Joffrey is screaming at Tyrion.

Nobody says she was seated near Tyrion. She was clearly standing. She didn't raise her voice, she didn't do a Tarzan yell, she just said her piece.

The dais at least is a good 10 feet below the head table. We don't have an exact layout of the room to know if there is room for someone to stand in front of the table, but since you say it would be so odd for an old woman to be standing behind the table where no one is looking, how odd is it that she would be standing in front of the table as the pie ceremony is about to start? And since nothing is true unless it is clearly stated in the text, she couldn't have been in front of it either. She must have been floating -- whoops, sorry, doesn't say that either.

Yes, we can logically conclude that someone would have noticed her still standing behind the table, but since all we have is Tyrion's POV, the only thing that matters is that he did not notice her, which is only plausible if she is standing behind him and completely implausible if she is standing in front of him.

Of course, there is no mention of it because then there would be no mystery at all. There is no mention of Garlen or anyone else poisoning the wine and yet that is accepted as truth. Be honestly now, given the two possibilities, which one do you think stands the greater chance of being seen: an tiny old women standing behind everyone slipping a crystal into a pie, or a grown man reaching three feet over a table in full view of an entire room of people?

Again, you invent things that are not in the text and then you dismiss logical conclusions drawn from the text because "it doesn't say that in the text."

The timeline is crystal clear: cut, pigeons, twirl, pie. While Joff and Margy are having this extended dance around the room, what exactly are Tyrion and everyone else doing? Does nobody speak? No movement? Everyone, including the servants who are supposed t be working, is just gazing at the happy couple in dazed awe? From the moment Tyrion is doused with the wine, we have literally a second-by-second account of what transpired, but now suddenly we have a 10-minute gap for no other reason than it serves your purposes.

No, I never said that. The quote of mine that you list says the exact opposite -- no mention of individual servants with pies and spoons. That is certainly a possibility, but it would be more reasonable that there is one server for perhaps every three to five guests. A lot less confusion that way.

And if you read the text (damn, text again, so sorry), it is the same servant who places the pie and then adds the cream. So no, there is not another servant with a big bowl of cream making his way across the table.

Again, no mention of trolleys in the text, even though Tyrion gives a lengthy description of the food, the servants bringing the food, the guests eating the food, what they were wearing, how they behaved, but wheeled trolleys being pushed around the room and behind the head table completely escapes his notice. But they must have been there because otherwise how else can we maintain the fiction that there was all this confusion behind the head table. And then in the next breath, you say Lady O could not have been behind the table, and she certainly cannot stand for "several minutes" because it doesn't say so the in text, so she must have left.

Also, please note that Tyrion is sitting 12 places away from the king, who would be served first, and still Tyrion gets his piece within a matter of seconds -- unless, of course, you invent completely imaginary time gaps because your argument falls apart without it. So that is clear evidence that the pies were all lined up, ready to be served to each guest the moment the ceremony was complete and Lady O could easily deduce whose pie was whose.

And this whole thing is ridiculous anyway because why couldn't they just have the pies in order on the trolley, or why couldn't the servant, who I'll say again served Tyrion immediately, have been standing right behind him holding the pie while the pigeons took flight?

What I'm getting at is that there are all sorts of ways in which the pie could have been poisoned by Lady O behind the table, while there is absolutely no way the wine could have been poisoned right in front of Tyrion, Sansa and 200 other guests.

Please, normal items like forks and napkins are not noticed anymore than the blue sky or the fact that there is oxygen in the room. But descriptions of servants bringing and clearing dishes all night long and no mention of any trolleys means there were no trolleys.

And banquet halls have dumb waiters, but who in the hell builds a throne room with dumbwaiters in it?

No, this is all the more reason why there must have been a permanent table just behind the head table, most likely hidden by a tapestry. (I know, you are allowed to invent all kinds of things to support your arguments but I am not). In this way, the hustle and bustle of getting food to the head table is kept out of sight, and the only movement of servants comes from between the tapestries as they place and then remove dishes. In this case, it would be very easy for Lady O to count 12 places from the king (I know it doesn't say in the text that Lady O can count, but can we at least agree that she can?) and poison the appropriate dish.

How exactly are dishes kept warm on a trolley, not being a trolley expert myself. How likely is it that kitchen is even on the same floor as the throne room? Do they trolley dishes to the stairs, carry them up by hand, put them on another trolley...? Or is it more likely that for the head table at least, dishes are hand-carried to the rear table before placement? This is the royal family backed by Tyrell money, after all, they could easily afford a hundred servants to shuttle dishes back and forth, again from a rear table behind a tapestry, out of sight and out of mind to the high lords and ladies enjoying their feast.

Tyrion's waiter had one pie and a spoonful of cream. No indication that waiters are slinging multiple plates at the guests in a mad frenzy. This isn't TGI Fridays. This is the high table at a royal wedding with the leading figures of the realm. They expect to be served quickly, efficiently and most of all elegantly. As I said, all of the commotion is happening behind the table and out of sight and with dishes lined up in an orderly fashion so they can be served with refinement to the high lords and ladies.

No, it isn't. Wheeling trolleys back and forth leads to collisions, plates falling on floors, noise. Servants with soft shoes each carrying one dish or at best a tray of several dishes is quiet, efficient and poses the least risk of accidents. And honestly, I've been to a hundred banquets where the guests are served rather than buffet-style and I have never once seen the waiters wheeling dishes out on trolleys. Talk about fiction.

No, he wasn`t lying

[Dorian Martell]

Any evidence? Not really.

Well, that about sums it up. There you go.

[John Suburbs]

I believe Grody Brody has answered quite well to some points, so I won't waste time covering them all. But you have repeated some of your arguments, and not answered some of my comments on your theory.

Once again, I should say that I am definitely not absolute about the wine theory. I simply believe the story is written in a way that doesn't allow certainty one way or another, and you can certainly not be as absolute as you are about the pie theory