Littlefinger was lying about the Purple Wedding

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

I don't believe so. Your reasons sound very good, but Littlefinger was needed to help set up Tyrion by spiriting Sansa away. Murdering Joffrey is one thing, so is setting up Tyrion, but I don't believe Olenna or Margaery would have wanted sweet Sansa to die or still be in the Lannister's claws. They may be ambitious, but they're not heartless.

1. Littlefinger had Ser Dontos to give Sansa the hairnet and not have her suspect anything.

Littlefinger had the want and the means to get Sansa out of KL.

With Sansa gone there is no doubt that Tyrion killed Joffrey and no need to suspect the Tyrells.

Well, I have to say that I don't think the Tyrell's hearts would stop them from murdering even Sansa if they thought there was something in it for them. But more importantly:

One of the big holes in Tyrion's prosecution is how he and Sansa were supposedly working together. If that's the case, then why has she escaped while he was left holding the poison'd chalice? I don't see how that proves that they were in cahoots (which, if memory serves, is one of Cersei's contentions). To my mind, Sansa having disappeared at least undermines the case that Tyrion poisoned Joffrey, if not making no difference at all.

But more than that: weren't the Tyrells hoping to marry Sansa to Willas? They certainly weren't hoping to boost her out of the kindness of their hearts. So, if they were working with Littlefinger to free her, then he double-crossed her. Although, if they married Sansa to Willas after she'd escaped, that might mark them as treacherous and undermine their position in King's Landing.

Basically, you're right, I suppose, in that the only reason the Tyrells could have wanted to help Sansa escape would have been out of the kindness of their hearts, but I disagree that their kindness would have motivated them to put themselves at risk.

There was a lot of good discussion in this thread. I'm going to read it again.

Glad you liked it!

A while back I was trying to figure out who hired the man that tried to kill Bran. I went through the books with what I thought was a fine tooth comb. Came to the decision it was Cersei.

Low and behold while following this thread I discovered I had missed an important bit of information that was in ASOS Tyrion VIII (p810-811 pb). Appears to be that Joff hired the man but, I still reserve the right to believe Cersei planted the seed.

Yes, nasty old Joffrey. Although I seem to remember that good old King Robert planted the seed as well, didn't he?

I agree that Joff was posioned. It's the who, what and why I am still wishy washy about.

Yes. I would make it clear that - to quote another theory-spouting maniac - I'm probably wrong about at least half of this, if not all of it. But even if Joffrey was poisoned, I still think there's room in the story for more details to emerge. Whatever the case may be, we have yet to hear the whole story...

Of course, I'm probably wrong about half of that.

[Frey family reunion]

The theory I'm most interested in is the one that posits that the original plan which Dontos did indeed communicate to Sansa is that Sansa was to drop the poison into Tyrion's food/or drink. In the ensuing chaos, Sansa was to escape and she was to be minus one husband. And in fact Sansa carried out her part of the plan, and dropped the poison into Tyrion's pie. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your point of view) Joffrey grabs Tyrion's pie and eats it thus dying of the poison.

The one thing that both the Tyrells and Littlefinger seemed to have in common is that they both wanted Sansa freed up to marry. Now my guess, if this theory is true, is that Littlefinger and the Queen of Thorns concocted it (which is why Olenna checked Sansa's hairnet before the wedding reception to make sure she was still going through with it). Littlefinger certainly (as Sansa even points out) had no reason to want Joffrey killed, but if he wanted Sansa freed up, he had every reason to want Tyrion killed. Likewise, if the Tyrells were still intent on marrying Sansa to Willis, Sansa's marriage to Tyrion had to be dealt with.

Sansa's POV is fairly interesting as well. Early on, she almost seems to be on the point of hysterics. Which is somewhat understandable given the turn of events at the party, but is even more understandable if she's the poisoner. She's starting to crack up a bit at the enormity of what she just did. So basically, her conscious mind refuses to come to terms that she is the responsible party. Even though deep down, she must know exactly what happens because her eye goes straight to her hair net and the missing jewel. She then turns on Dontos basically accusing him of deceiving her ("you said it was magic, but it was murder") even though my guess is, Sansa knew all along what the jewel in her hairnet was meant to do.

Finally, Littlefinger being the clever little imp he is, certainly knows what the ringing of the bells at King's Landing means, and quickly pieces together that Joffrey received the poison. Furthermore, if he and Olenna were in league, and if he knew Olenna was going to check Sansa's hairnet to make sure she was going through with the original plan, then Littlefinger quickly gives poor hysterical Sansa her cover story so she can distance herself from any responsibility. He allows her to absolve herself, by suggesting that Olenna is the responsible party. It's kind of a game they seem to play all the time. As Littlefinger tells her, always stick with the story, you never know who's listening, plus the more you say it, the more you start to believe it.

[Nerevanin]

I've often wondered if Dontos explained to Sansa what the hairnet actually was. She certainly plays the part of the innocent after the Purple Wedding, but her eyes go right to the hairnet and the missing amethyst. Why would that have occurred to her if Dontos didn't already tell her what the amethysts actually were? And for that matter why would Dontos have given her the hairnet without an explanation of what it was for?

I highly doubt that Sansa knew about the poisons because I doubt that she would play along with the scheme.Despite her hatred for Joffrey, I don't think her desire for revenge would make her act so naturally. She is no assassin. She is an honest good girl (you may argue that from late ASOS onwards she's been lying about her identity but remember that she is in life danger and that it took her quite some time to get used to it). She would be nervous as hell if she knew that he hairnet is a deadly weapon. She was a way to smuggle the poison to the wedding.

That being said, I think that it wasn't necessary to involve Sansa in it at all. It was an uncontrollable complication. As if Olenna couldn't bring it herself hidden in her own pockets. Don't tell me that the grandma of the future queen is examined before she is allowed to go to the wedding. To me it doesn't make much sense to rely on Sansa to bring the poison. The only reason I can think of is that he wanted Sansa to feel guilty that she played a part in Joffrey's death.

Petyr gave Sansa the hairnet because he PLANNED to kill Tyrion. Petyr cooked the plan up with Joffrey who planned to have Sansa blamed for killing Tyrion. The deal would be that Petyr gets to keep Sansa rather than have her executed. She would make her escape with Dontos as planned and it would be assumed she killed Tyrion. Sansa becomes Petyr's prisoner for life.

Either Tywin gets wind of the scheme and switches the poisons or Sansa, enraged by the swords puts an amethyst in the wine. Joffrey was NEVER the target

Although it's interesting plottwist that the target may have been Tyrion instead of Joffrey, why in the world would Tywin save Tyrion, his loathed son who he later has almost executed with a light heart, and give the poison to Joffrey, who was the Lannister sitting on the Iron Throne? Although Joffrey was unpredictable, it seemed that Tywin could easily rule thanks to him.

Although LF has motives to kill Tyrion, I'm not sure about the Tyrells. Joffrey seems more as a target of both LF and the Tyrells to me. LF wanted chaos and revenge for Catelyn's death, the Tyrells were afraid of Margaery's fate. Although Joffrey acted rather courteously towards Margaery, remember that he did the same towards Sansa when she was protected and then turned into a monster when she was all alone. It's very possible that some time after the wedding all the Tyrells would leave for Highgarden but Loras and Joffrey could send him away on a mission so Margaery's unprotected. I think it's clear that sooner or later Joffrey would start to be cruel towards Margaery. The Tyrells feared this so much that they rather killed Joffrey right away so Margaery could claim that she was still virgin and thus a suitable wife for the next king.

[Frey family reunion]

I highly doubt that Sansa knew about the poisons because I doubt that she would play along with the scheme.Despite her hatred for Joffrey, I don't think her desire for revenge would make her act so naturally. She is no assassin. She is an honest good girl (you may argue that from late ASOS onwards she's been lying about her identity but remember that she is in life danger and that it took her quite some time to get used to it). She would be nervous as hell if she knew that he hairnet is a deadly weapon. She was a way to smuggle the poison to the wedding.

That being said, I think that it wasn't necessary to involve Sansa in it at all. It was an uncontrollable complication. As if Olenna couldn't bring it herself hidden in her own pockets. Don't tell me that the grandma of the future queen is examined before she is allowed to go to the wedding. To me it doesn't make much sense to rely on Sansa to bring the poison. The only reason I can think of is that he wanted Sansa to feel guilty that she played a part in Joffrey's death.

Although it's interesting plottwist that the target may have been Tyrion instead of Joffrey, why in the world would Tywin save Tyrion, his loathed son who he later has almost executed with a light heart, and give the poison to Joffrey, who was the Lannister sitting on the Iron Throne? Although Joffrey was unpredictable, it seemed that Tywin could easily rule thanks to him.

Although LF has motives to kill Tyrion, I'm not sure about the Tyrells. Joffrey seems more as a target of both LF and the Tyrells to me. LF wanted chaos and revenge for Catelyn's death, the Tyrells were afraid of Margaery's fate. Although Joffrey acted rather courteously towards Margaery, remember that he did the same towards Sansa when she was protected and then turned into a monster when she was all alone. It's very possible that some time after the wedding all the Tyrells would leave for Highgarden but Loras and Joffrey could send him away on a mission so Margaery's unprotected. I think it's clear that sooner or later Joffrey would start to be cruel towards Margaery. The Tyrells feared this so much that they rather killed Joffrey right away so Margaery could claim that she was still virgin and thus a suitable wife for the next king.

Well the Sansa theory doesn't really have to do with poisoning Joffrey, it has to do with poisoning Tyrion. Joffrey just happened to grab Tyrion's pie. And Sansa was probably pretty desperate to get out of her marriage to Tyrion. There was a really good thread on the subject a while back.

But yes, using Sansa as a go between to get the poison to Olenna doesn't really make a lot of sense. It makes much more sense if Olenna or one of the Tyrell's were going to drop the poison for them just to bring it in themselves. Which makes me think that it's possible that Sansa was the poisoner all along, she was the only one who would definitely be seated next to Tyrion during the feast. I think Olenna may have just been checking to make sure that Sansa wore the hairnet, to make sure that the plan was going forward as planned.

The Tyrells, while they had no love for Joffrey, didn't really have much to gain in marrying Margaery to Joffrey only to kill him right then and there at the wedding. They kind of go back to step one. It makes more sense to wait for Margaery to get pregnant with Joffrey's child, and hope for a male. After that, I think killing Joffrey definitely becomes a possibility. So the Tyrells had more motive to want Tyrion dead, to free Sansa up to marry Willas.

[Alysanne Donnelly]

Well, I have to say that I don't think the Tyrell's hearts would stop them from murdering even Sansa if they thought there was something in it for them. But more importantly:

One of the big holes in Tyrion's prosecution is how he and Sansa were supposedly working together. If that's the case, then why has she escaped while he was left holding the poison'd chalice? I don't see how that proves that they were in cahoots (which, if memory serves, is one of Cersei's contentions). To my mind, Sansa having disappeared at least undermines the case that Tyrion poisoned Joffrey, if not making no difference at all.

But more than that: weren't the Tyrells hoping to marry Sansa to Willas? They certainly weren't hoping to boost her out of the kindness of their hearts. So, if they were working with Littlefinger to free her, then he double-crossed her. Although, if they married Sansa to Willas after she'd escaped, that might mark them as treacherous and undermine their position in King's Landing.

Basically, you're right, I suppose, in that the only reason the Tyrells could have wanted to help Sansa escape would have been out of the kindness of their hearts, but I disagree that their kindness would have motivated them to put themselves at risk.

You make good points about Tyrion's case. Maybe my own reasonings are too speculative. Sansa conspired with Tyrion and then left him to take all of the blame. Sansa being a vengeful traitor's daughter along with Tyrion being an undesirable and insulting Lannister husband seems to fit King Landing's narrative of their lives.

Since she couldn't be married off to Willas any more, Sansa was useless to the Tyrells. Until she could be used for Joffrey's death that is. If Littlefinger had offered to set her up but not take her away, I don't doubt they would have let her be caught. Or maybe the Tyrell's didn't know that she would be taken away. But I believe that if the Tyrells knew of Littlefinger's plan that they would have chosen to go along with it because not only would it shift the blame of Joffrey's death, it would also keep an innocent girl from dying. Maybe I'm too optimistic. :P

[John Suburbs]

Sorry to keep repeating myself, but I'll point out again the massive amounts of theorizing and speculation you have to do to conclude anything other than Lady O placed the poison in the pie herself, to wit:

Sansa did it but she now has selective memories

Littlefinger left an assassination of this magnitude in the hands of an unstable character like Sansa

Lady O checked the hairnet and then was standing right there at the crucial moment just to make sure Sansa went through with it

And it just leads to further questions:

How when and where did Sansa receive her instructions?

Why would Lady O need to touch the hairnet to make sure the gem was there? She could just see it.

Why does Dontos not remind her of the fact that she is the poisoner when she accuses him of doing it? Why doesn't Littlefinger?

With Lady O and the pie, there is no need for any of this:

Lady O palmed the gem when she fiddled with the hairnet; and note, there was no wind that day, and even if there was her hair would not have been out of place -- she had a hairnet on.

Lady O was standing right behind Tyrion as the prepared pies were being lined up to be served, so she could easily do it herself -- no need to speculate that it was Sansa or Garlen or Leonette or anyone else.

As to these points:

But yes, using Sansa as a go between to get the poison to Olenna doesn't really make a lot of sense. It makes much more sense if Olenna or one of the Tyrell's were going to drop the poison for them just to bring it in themselves. Which makes me think that it's possible that Sansa was the poisoner all along, she was the only one who would definitely be seated next to Tyrion during the feast. I think Olenna may have just been checking to make sure that Sansa wore the hairnet, to make sure that the plan was going forward as planned.

Sansa already had the poison long before Lady O was brought in on the plot. Remember, Dontos gave the hairnet to Sansa immediately after the battle of the Blackwater, long before the Tyrells had any reason to kill Tyrion -- Robb was still King in the North and Tyrion and Sansa were not married yet. So this is Littlefinger's standard MO of putting the pieces in place before he knows exactly how they are to be used. The only thing he knows is that someone has to die at the PW in order to provide the chaos needed to whisk Sansa out of the capital without any little birds seeing.

The Tyrells, while they had no love for Joffrey, didn't really have much to gain in marrying Margaery to Joffrey only to kill him right then and there at the wedding. They kind of go back to step one. It makes more sense to wait for Margaery to get pregnant with Joffrey's child, and hope for a male. After that, I think killing Joffrey definitely becomes a possibility. So the Tyrells had more motive to want Tyrion dead, to free Sansa up to marry Willas.

True except in the very last point. Once the Willas plan was revealed, that ship had sailed. Simply killing Tyrion without removing Sansa from the capital would merely have meant that Sansa would be married off to another Lannister. So at this point, Lady O was resigned to the fact that if the Tyrells could not get Sansa, it's better she go to Littlefinger than Tywin.

Although it's interesting plottwist that the target may have been Tyrion instead of Joffrey, why in the world would Tywin save Tyrion, his loathed son who he later has almost executed with a light heart, and give the poison to Joffrey, who was the Lannister sitting on the Iron Throne? Although Joffrey was unpredictable, it seemed that Tywin could easily rule thanks to him.

Tywin set the Riverlands on fire when Cat kidnapped Tyrion and brought him to the Aerie. Tywin has no love for Tyrion, but he values Lannister honor and reputation above all else, so any slight to any member of his family is to be dealt with in clear and decisive fashion. Also, Tywin is no kinslayer.

And again, all this talk about Tywin or Cersie or anyone other than Littlefinger and Lady O being involved is pure speculation. There is not a shred of text that even hints of such a thing.

Although LF has motives to kill Tyrion, I'm not sure about the Tyrells. Joffrey seems more as a target of both LF and the Tyrells to me. LF wanted chaos and revenge for Catelyn's death, the Tyrells were afraid of Margaery's fate. Although Joffrey acted rather courteously towards Margaery, remember that he did the same towards Sansa when she was protected and then turned into a monster when she was all alone. It's very possible that some time after the wedding all the Tyrells would leave for Highgarden but Loras and Joffrey could send him away on a mission so Margaery's unprotected. I think it's clear that sooner or later Joffrey would start to be cruel towards Margaery. The Tyrells feared this so much that they rather killed Joffrey right away so Margaery could claim that she was still virgin and thus a suitable wife for the next king.

The Tyrell motive to kill Tyrion is crystal clear: to prevent Tywin from gaining control of the north and thus the power to field an army that would equal if not surpass anything that Highgarden could muster. This would be a major shift in power that threatens Highgarden's hegemony on the region that has existed for a thousand years or more -- it is the single biggest concern for Lady O, much more serious than if Margy takes a few knocks in the head from a kingsguard.

Also, if Joffrey did turn on Margaery, it certainly wouldn't be that night, judging by his actions at the wedding. So if he becomes a problem later on there are plenty of ways to get rid of him quietly, with no witnesses, rather than in front of 200 wedding guests. And by then, a Tyrell heir to the IT would either be born or on its way -- no need to wait another five years for Tommen to come of age, during which time anything can happen.

[John Suburbs]

You make good points about Tyrion's case. Maybe my own reasonings are too speculative. Sansa conspired with Tyrion and then left him to take all of the blame. Sansa being a vengeful traitor's daughter along with Tyrion being an undesirable and insulting Lannister husband seems to fit King Landing's narrative of their lives.

Since she couldn't be married off to Willas any more, Sansa was useless to the Tyrells. Until she could be used for Joffrey's death that is. If Littlefinger had offered to set her up but not take her away, I don't doubt they would have let her be caught. Or maybe the Tyrell's didn't know that she would be taken away. But I believe that if the Tyrells knew of Littlefinger's plan that they would have chosen to go along with it because not only would it shift the blame of Joffrey's death, it would also keep an innocent girl from dying. Maybe I'm too optimistic. :P

Sansa is not useless to anyone. She is the key to the north. No one is doing her any kindness. It's the one thing that Dantos gets right: its her claim they want, not her.

All these hoops that people have to jump through when the most obvious solution is right on the page: LF supplies the poison and Lady O palms it and places it in the pie. No one else is involved. No reason to invent unsubstantiated scenarios in order to support a preconceived conclusion. No Garlen, no one-in-a-million chance of not being seen. No Sansa psycho problems. No reason to imagine LF could predict all the unpredictable things that put the chalice right where it needs to be at just the right time. No reason to invent all this fear of Joffrey or the idea that he is so dangerous that he has to die before Margaery's virtue is besmirched. No reason to think Lady O is more worried about her granddaughter than her entire house...

[Nerevanin]

The Tyrell motive to kill Tyrion is crystal clear: to prevent Tywin from gaining control of the north and thus the power to field an army that would equal if not surpass anything that Highgarden could muster. This would be a major shift in power that threatens Highgarden's hegemony on the region that has existed for a thousand years or more -- it is the single biggest concern for Lady O, much more serious than if Margy takes a few knocks in the head from a kingsguard.

Also, if Joffrey did turn on Margaery, it certainly wouldn't be that night, judging by his actions at the wedding. So if he becomes a problem later on there are plenty of ways to get rid of him quietly, with no witnesses, rather than in front of 200 wedding guests. And by then, a Tyrell heir to the IT would either be born or on its way -- no need to wait another five years for Tommen to come of age, during which time anything can happen.

OK, I can take that Tyrion was the original target of it all. After all LF tried to get rid of him before. And it's true that the Tyrells wouldn't get much of Joffrey's death (unless they were afraid that something very bad would happen to Margaery at the wedding night or unless they didn't want the monster Joffrey to even touch their precious Margaery). OK. So the cups or the pie got switched by a mistake. But what I just can't buy is Sansa being the killer. It's so out of character for her, I don't believe it.

[John Suburbs]

Exactly, making Sansa the poisoner is imaginary thinking, just like Littlefinger somehow knowing that the Joff-Tyrion spat over the jousting would involve the chalice, or that Garlen or anyone else could reach over the top of the chalice without anyone seeing, least of all Tyrion and Sansa, or half-a-hundred other things that people dream up to fit their preferred conclusion.

The only explanation that conforms to the text and does not require a bunch of made-up theories is that Littlefinger and Lady O conspired to kill Tyrion for the reasons above, and that Lady O palmed the crystal from the hairnet and placed it in Tyrion's pie just before it was served.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

The Tyrell motive to kill Tyrion is crystal clear: to prevent Tywin from gaining control of the north and thus the power to field an army that would equal if not surpass anything that Highgarden could muster. This would be a major shift in power that threatens Highgarden's hegemony on the region that has existed for a thousand years or more -- it is the single biggest concern for Lady O, much more serious than if Margy takes a few knocks in the head from a kingsguard.

Also, if Joffrey did turn on Margaery, it certainly wouldn't be that night, judging by his actions at the wedding. So if he becomes a problem later on there are plenty of ways to get rid of him quietly, with no witnesses, rather than in front of 200 wedding guests. And by then, a Tyrell heir to the IT would either be born or on its way -- no need to wait another five years for Tommen to come of age, during which time anything can happen.

That's contradictory, if you'll forgive me for saying so. Winter is coming, and the north is presently being fought over by the Ironborn and the Boltons, whose claim itself is rather weak. Surely the Tyrells can see how the North might not warm to Bolton leadership, nor to Lannister leadership? Further unrest is a fairly safe bet for that region, and that's if the Lannisters can assert their claim, which they won't be able to do until the present wars are over, maybe even until the spring.

In other words, it's going to be a few years before the Lannisters can claim the strength of the North. So if that's what the Tyrells are afraid of, there's no need to act on Joffrey's wedding night. As you say:

"...later on there are plenty of ways to get rid of him (i.e. Tyrion) quietly, with no witnesses, rather than in front of 200 wedding guests. And by then, a Tyrell heir to the IT would either be born or on its way -- no need to wait another five years..."

I suppose you could say that it was Littlefinger who needed a death at the wedding, to provide cover for Sansa's escape. But then, why would the Tyrells comply with Littlefinger's timetable?

I can't think of many good reasons, whether it's Tyrion or Joffrey whom they intended to kill.

1. Perhaps they wanted Tyrion dead before he got Sansa pregnant - but then, why risk waiting until the wedding?

Perhaps they simply followed Littlefinger's plan, with no reason of their own for that particular date.

Perhaps they wanted Joffrey dead after the wedding, but before the consummation.

Perhaps they wanted Tyrion or Joffrey dead while the wars were still raging and there were plenty of other culprits to blame.

No. 3 makes the most sense, to me: it demonstrates to the Lannisters that they are committed to the alliance, by having Margaery go through with the wedding; but it keeps Margaery from losing her virginity, thus keeping her value on the marriage market. If she'd fucked Joffrey, Tywin would have grounds to say that she couldn't marry Tommen. Above all else, the Tyrells want very badly to become a part of the royal family. (Perhaps you doubt that Tywin could have done that, as it would have endangered the alliance, but remember: Loras was already in the Kingsguard. Much like Jaime under Aerys II, he would effectively be a hostage to the crown.)

No. 4 argues for timeliness but doesn't mean that he needed to die at the wedding. It also presupposes that the Tyrells weren't aware of any plan to frame Tyrion. (And, if Littlefinger planned to frame Tyrion, why bother with that whole thing with the pigs?)

No. 1 is tricky for me. I suppose you could argue that they'd have preferred to eliminate that risk by killing Tyrion sooner, but that they had to compromise on the timetable because they needed Littlefinger to help them pull it off. Or at least, they had to keep Littlefinger sweet because he knew too much. And perhaps Littlefinger could ensure Sansa drank moon tea if it were necessary. But this is a lot of speculation.

I also don't think we should discount Littlefinger's stated motivation for the Tyrells to kill Joffrey, i.e. that if Joffrey hurts Margaery, Loras will kill him. Loras has already demonstrated his impetuousness and penchant for violence: upon finding Renly dead, he immediately murdered two noblemen! And there's no suggestion that he thought they were guilty of anything except a failure to protect the king.

These chumps were Emmon Cuy and Robar Royce, I looked it up. House Cuy is sworn to Hightower, who, if memory serves, are the Tyrell's biggest local rival, the second-most powerful house in the Reach and one who hasn't actually fielded any soldiers in the war yet. Neither has House Royce, nor has the rest of the Vale. A few second's of blinding rage from Loras just made two powerful enemies for the Tyrells, and could potentially spell trouble for them for years to come. It's not unrealistic to think that they'd be worried about what to do if that happened again.

As for the idea that Sansa poisoned Joffrey and blocked it out, like Memento or Lost Highway (spoiler alert, I guess) - eh, I'm not buying it. I don't think there's any good reason to think that's the case.

Oh, and one more thing: if Tyrion was the target of the poison, and the Tyrells his poisoner, then surely they would be Tywin's first suspect?

Tywin went up against Doran Martell's unnamed mother in a "battle of the matchmakers", and she won, with Elia beating Cersei to Rhaegar's hand. A few years later, Tywin had Elia raped and killed.

Tywin then played the same game with the Tyrells, this time winning: Tyrion beat out Willas for Sansa's hand. If Tyrion was suspiciously killed, given the way his mind works, wouldn't the Tyrells be Tywin's first suspects? Alright, maybe they wouldn't know that, but still.

[aryagonnakill#2]

You guys r still talking about this? Have you figured out why GRRM would say the purple wedding was named after the wine yet? No? O right because there is no other reason.

[jet199]

I'm suspicious as to whether Dontos was involved with LF from the start. Dontos promises to help Sansa, gives her the hairnet and then is pretty useless. He then tells Sansa he has found someone who will help them escape on a ship, who I'm guessing is LF (he is waiting for them on the so after all), so I wonder if Dontos was working alone or for someone else up until this point.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

I'm suspicious as to whether Dontos was involved with LF from the start. Dontos promises to help Sansa, gives her the hairnet and then is pretty useless. He then tells Sansa he has found someone who will help them escape on a ship, who I'm guessing is LF (he is waiting for them on the so after all), so I wonder if Dontos was working alone or for someone else up until this point.

Could've meant Oswell Kettleblack.

[John Suburbs]

That's contradictory, if you'll forgive me for saying so. Winter is coming, and the north is presently being fought over by the Ironborn and the Boltons, whose claim itself is rather weak. Surely the Tyrells can see how the North might not warm to Bolton leadership, nor to Lannister leadership? Further unrest is a fairly safe bet for that region, and that's if the Lannisters can assert their claim, which they won't be able to do until the present wars are over, maybe even until the spring.

In other words, it's going to be a few years before the Lannisters can claim the strength of the North. So if that's what the Tyrells are afraid of, there's no need to act on Joffrey's wedding night. As you say:

"...later on there are plenty of ways to get rid of him (i.e. Tyrion) quietly, with no witnesses, rather than in front of 200 wedding guests. And by then, a Tyrell heir to the IT would either be born or on its way -- no need to wait another five years..."

The north won't warm to Lannister control but they will swear fealty to the only known male heir of Eddard Stark and thus the heir to Winterfell.

Yes, Lady O must act on the wedding night because after that there is no reason for Tyrion and Sansa to remain in the capital. They will decamp to Winterfell and Lady O will then have to plot the assassination from half a continent away with virtually no one at Winterfell to carry it out.

When I said "get rid of him", I meant Joffrey, not Tyrion. The heir to the IT is certainly not going to come from Sansa and Tyrion.

And whether it takes two years or ten or twenty, Lannister control of half the kingdom shifts the balance of power heavily toward Casterly Rock. Before the war, CR could must about 20k. With the Riverlands, the Neck and the North on board, that number jumps to 100k or more, and there is a long border between the Westerlands and the Reach that is ripe for conflict, plus Highgarden still has to keep wary of Dorne.

I suppose you could say that it was Littlefinger who needed a death at the wedding, to provide cover for Sansa's escape. But then, why would the Tyrells comply with Littlefinger's timetable?

I can't think of many good reasons, whether it's Tyrion or Joffrey whom they intended to kill.

1. Perhaps they wanted Tyrion dead before he got Sansa pregnant - but then, why risk waiting until the wedding?

Perhaps they simply followed Littlefinger's plan, with no reason of their own for that particular date.

Perhaps they wanted Joffrey dead after the wedding, but before the consummation.

Perhaps they wanted Tyrion or Joffrey dead while the wars were still raging and there were plenty of other culprits to blame.

No. 3 makes the most sense, to me: it demonstrates to the Lannisters that they are committed to the alliance, by having Margaery go through with the wedding; but it keeps Margaery from losing her virginity, thus keeping her value on the marriage market. If she'd fucked Joffrey, Tywin would have grounds to say that she couldn't marry Tommen. Above all else, the Tyrells want very badly to become a part of the royal family. (Perhaps you doubt that Tywin could have done that, as it would have endangered the alliance, but remember: Loras was already in the Kingsguard. Much like Jaime under Aerys II, he would effectively be a hostage to the crown.)

No. 4 argues for timeliness but doesn't mean that he needed to die at the wedding. It also presupposes that the Tyrells weren't aware of any plan to frame Tyrion. (And, if Littlefinger planned to frame Tyrion, why bother with that whole thing with the pigs?)

No. 1 is tricky for me. I suppose you could argue that they'd have preferred to eliminate that risk by killing Tyrion sooner, but that they had to compromise on the timetable because they needed Littlefinger to help them pull it off. Or at least, they had to keep Littlefinger sweet because he knew too much. And perhaps Littlefinger could ensure Sansa drank moon tea if it were necessary. But this is a lot of speculation.

1. There was no way to get to him before the wedding, unless we are now going to speculate that one of Tyrion's household staff is working for the Tyrells.

2. LF had the poison in place where it can be easily obtained by the poisoner -- Lady O. Also, she knows exactly where she needs to be in order to deploy it and she even knows with a high degree of certainty which piece will be his before it is placed.

3. Dead Joffrey with no Tyrell heir on the way is useless. The whole point of the wedding is not to find a husband for Margy but to produce a blood tie between House Tyrell and the Iron Throne. With Joffrey, they have that tie within the year. With Tommen they have to wait five years at least -- an eternity for a feudal society at war.

4. Well why stop at Tyrion and Joffrey? They would rule everything if they just killed Tyrion, Joffrey, Tywin, Cersei, Tommen and Littlefinger, for that matter. It's not easy to pull off a high-level political assassination, let alone get away with clean hands, and you certainly don't attempt one that relies on your targets moving and behaving exactly as you think they will.

I also don't think we should discount Littlefinger's stated motivation for the Tyrells to kill Joffrey, i.e. that if Joffrey hurts Margaery, Loras will kill him. Loras has already demonstrated his impetuousness and penchant for violence: upon finding Renly dead, he immediately murdered two noblemen! And there's no suggestion that he thought they were guilty of anything except a failure to protect the king.

These chumps were Emmon Cuy and Robar Royce, I looked it up. House Cuy is sworn to Hightower, who, if memory serves, are the Tyrell's biggest local rival, the second-most powerful house in the Reach and one who hasn't actually fielded any soldiers in the war yet. Neither has House Royce, nor has the rest of the Vale. A few second's of blinding rage from Loras just made two powerful enemies for the Tyrells, and could potentially spell trouble for them for years to come. It's not unrealistic to think that they'd be worried about what to do if that happened again.

Please, Littlefinger spinning this story on the ship after the fact? What was he supposed to say, "gee sweetling, we meant to kill your husband but killed the king instead. Now everyone thinks you're a kingslayer. But don't worry, I have everything under control..." We can chalk this up to everything else that comes out of LF's mouth: lies.

When and if Joffrey were to harm Margy -- and there is absolutely nothing in the text that shows he was hostile toward her, in fact it's just the opposite, or that Margy or Lady O were the slightest bit concerned -- there would be plenty of ways to kill Joff that don't have an extraordinarily high risk of being spotted. That chalice is three feet tall and sitting front and center on the high table in front of 200 witnesses. Given the consequences, virtual extermination of House Tyrell, plus the fact that Joff posed no immediate threat to Margaery, why on earth of Lady O take such a drastic step as regicide? She has nothing to gain and literally everything to lose.

Oh, and one more thing: if Tyrion was the target of the poison, and the Tyrells his poisoner, then surely they would be Tywin's first suspect?

Tywin went up against Doran Martell's unnamed mother in a "battle of the matchmakers", and she won, with Elia beating Cersei to Rhaegar's hand. A few years later, Tywin had Elia raped and killed.

Tywin then played the same game with the Tyrells, this time winning: Tyrion beat out Willas for Sansa's hand. If Tyrion was suspiciously killed, given the way his mind works, wouldn't the Tyrells be Tywin's first suspects? Alright, maybe they wouldn't know that, but still.

Well, the same goes for Joffrey. If not for Tyrion standing there with the chalice in his hands, or the other half-dozen unforeseeable events that put Joffrey, Tyrion and the chalice in close contact, then Cersei might not have made the accusation or have been believed if she had. And that would have left Joffrey dead from the chalice that was a Tyrell gift to the couple in the first place. So with the wine theory, you need Littlefinger and Lady O knowing all of the precise choreography beforehand or else the Tyrells become the prime suspects. Heck, of Joffrey hadn't spotted them attempting to leave so Tyrion could change clothes, neither one would have been in the room when Joffrey drank the wine.

With Tyrion dead, there is no clear connection between him and the Tyrells (indeed, if there was, I wouldn't have to keep explaining this over and over again), so suspicion is more likely to fall on Sansa, since she is suddenly missing.

It isn't clear at all that Tywin had Elia raped and killed. His story is that he told Lorch and Clegane to kill the children, but he didn't say anything about Elia, and there is no reason why he would cop to the murder of two children but be afraid to admit to the murder of their mother.

[John Suburbs]

You guys r still talking about this? Have you figured out why GRRM would say the purple wedding was named after the wine yet? No? O right because there is no other reason.

Uhh, GRRM didn't call it the Purple Wedding, that came from the fans, many of whom are still under the mistaken impression that the poison was in the wine.

But it still applies either way because pigeon pie is very dark in color, one might call it purplish, and so was Joffrey's face at the end of the chapter.

[John Suburbs]

I'm suspicious as to whether Dontos was involved with LF from the start. Dontos promises to help Sansa, gives her the hairnet and then is pretty useless. He then tells Sansa he has found someone who will help them escape on a ship, who I'm guessing is LF (he is waiting for them on the so after all), so I wonder if Dontos was working alone or for someone else up until this point.

Dontos asked for his payment from Littlefinger out in the bay, so he was obviously working for him. There is nothing in the text to suggest he had any connection to anyone else. Might as well speculate that he was really working for the Great Other.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

I just wrote a monster post, some of which covers your objections here. Let me try and fill in the gaps:

The north won't warm to Lannister control but they will swear fealty to the only known male heir of Eddard Stark and thus the heir to Winterfell.

Yeah, maybe: if there's a male heir, if the Iron Islands don't win the war, if Roose Bolton or some other lord doesn't kill Tyrion or Sansa or Eddard Stark's heir, and if the child of the north holds any serious fealty to House Lannister. I'm not denying your point here, because if the Lannisters did get the North on side, they would pose a very serious threat to the Reach. But, to quote you: With Tommen they [the Tyrells] have to wait five years [for an heir] at least -- an eternity for a feudal society at war. Given all those factors, not to mention the onset of winter, it's going to be more than five years before any Lannister-allied North could conceivably threaten the Reach, and crucially, it'll be at least a little while until the political situation stabilises there. Can it be guaranteed that the Northmen will prefer the son of Tyrion Lannister to the son of Roose Bolton? I'd say not. You have Olenna taking a very drastic step in the short term to take care of a threat that may never materialise. I agree, the severity of the potential threat might justify her actions nevertheless. But I don't think so.

Yes, Lady O must act on the wedding night because after that there is no reason for Tyrion and Sansa to remain in the capital. They will decamp to Winterfell and Lady O will then have to plot the assassination from half a continent away with virtually no one at Winterfell to carry it out.

Wrong, Tyrion is Master of Coin. In fact, he even discusses with Olenna how he must remain at court, while Olenna is supposedly palming the poison!

When I said "get rid of him", I meant Joffrey, not Tyrion. The heir to the IT is certainly not going to come from Sansa and Tyrion.

I understand that you meant Joffrey, I meant that what's true for Joffrey is equally true for Tyrion: they could kill Tyrion at any point in the future. I don't believe the wedding marks their only opportunity.

1. There was no way to get to him before the wedding, unless we are now going to speculate that one of Tyrion's household staff is working for the Tyrells.

There's always a way. Have him stabbed in the street, lure him to a brothel, shoot him with a poison dart. I fail to see how any of these are riskier than poisoning him at a feast, where they risk poisoning somebody else important by accident. Of course you'll say that's exactly what happened :p

2. LF had the poison in place where it can be easily obtained by the poisoner -- Lady O. Also, she knows exactly where she needs to be in order to deploy it and she even knows with a high degree of certainty which piece will be his before it is placed.

I mildly dispute your first sentence and disagree strongly with the other, but I'd be repeating something that's in the monster post.

3. Dead Joffrey with no Tyrell heir on the way is useless. The whole point of the wedding is not to find a husband for Margy but to produce a blood tie between House Tyrell and the Iron Throne. With Joffrey, they have that tie within the year. With Tommen they have to wait five years at least -- an eternity for a feudal society at war.

That's a fair point, but the war is largely over at this point (except in the North), and as long as Margaery is married to Tommen the alliance is still salvaged, albeit fragile without an heir. But if you believe Littlefinger's story, the risk

4. Well why stop at Tyrion and Joffrey? They would rule everything if they just killed Tyrion, Joffrey, Tywin, Cersei, Tommen and Littlefinger, for that matter. It's not easy to pull off a high-level political assassination, let alone get away with clean hands, and you certainly don't attempt one that relies on your targets moving and behaving exactly as you think they will.

I don't actually think this is a good reason for moving on their target at the wedding, I'm just trying to cover all the bases. Also, I didn't mean both, I said Tyrion or Joffrey, meaning that, whoever they intended to kill - particularly Joffrey - they have a long list of suspects to deflect blame onto. It's silly to say they'd kill everybody else too, that would surely raise suspicion.

Please, Littlefinger spinning this story on the ship after the fact? What was he supposed to say, "gee sweetling, we meant to kill your husband but killed the king instead. Now everyone thinks you're a kingslayer. But don't worry, I have everything under control..." We can chalk this up to everything else that comes out of LF's mouth: lies.

First of all, it's spelt puh-lease! Second, I'll agree that he was lying - after all, I started this thread! - but not quite in the way you think. I think this is his best guess, possibly an educated one, as to why the Tyrells would have killed Joffrey. But I agree that it just might be a load of old bollocks.

When and if Joffrey were to harm Margy -- and there is absolutely nothing in the text that shows he was hostile toward her, in fact it's just the opposite, or that Margy or Lady O were the slightest bit concerned -- there would be plenty of ways to kill Joff that don't have an extraordinarily high risk of being spotted. That chalice is three feet tall and sitting front and center on the high table in front of 200 witnesses. Given the consequences, virtual extermination of House Tyrell, plus the fact that Joff posed no immediate threat to Margaery, why on earth of Lady O take such a drastic step as regicide? She has nothing to gain and literally everything to lose.

I don't think its unreasonable to worry that Joffrey might hurt Margaery. We only have POVs from outside of their relationship seeing them in public, and even Joffrey might understand the importance of that alliance. As for the chalice and Lady O, see my monster post.

Well, the same goes for Joffrey. If not for Tyrion standing there with the chalice in his hands, or the other half-dozen unforeseeable events that put Joffrey, Tyrion and the chalice in close contact, then Cersei might not have made the accusation or have been believed if she had. And that would have left Joffrey dead from the chalice that was a Tyrell gift to the couple in the first place. So with the wine theory, you need Littlefinger and Lady O knowing all of the precise choreography beforehand or else the Tyrells become the prime suspects. Heck, of Joffrey hadn't spotted them attempting to leave so Tyrion could change clothes, neither one would have been in the room when Joffrey drank the wine.

Cersei wouldn't let a little thing like facts or reason stop her from accusing Tyrion of Joffrey's murder ;)

As for whether she'd have been believed, maybe not - although again, see the monster post - but I doubt the Tyrells would have been suspected. Their purported motive is too obscure, and there was a chance Margaery could have drunk from the poisoned chalice. Of course, that just means that any Tyrell plot must necessarily have included Margaery... but I'm repeating myself, see the monster post.

With Tyrion dead, there is no clear connection between him and the Tyrells (indeed, if there was, I wouldn't have to keep explaining this over and over again), so suspicion is more likely to fall on Sansa, since she is suddenly missing.

Correct. However... are you saying that the Tyrells knew Sansa would escape? If so, aren't they worried that Littlefinger may one day be caught with her? That would put him in a position to rat them out.

It isn't clear at all that Tywin had Elia raped and killed. His story is that he told Lorch and Clegane to kill the children, but he didn't say anything about Elia, and there is no reason why he would cop to the murder of two children but be afraid to admit to the murder of their mother.

His story is a crock of shit, but I admit there's no evidence one way or t'other. It depends what you think of Tywin's character. There is a reason to admit to the murders of the children but not their mother, though: the children's deaths can be justified as unsavoury, but necessary. But there's no political justification for having Elia raped and killed, and Tywin has a reputation to maintain - one which we know is at least slightly at odds with his private self, since Tyrion finds Shae in his bed.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

The more I think about this whole issue, the less sure I am of what happened. I hope we get some proof via a different POV to clear some things up, because at the moment, there are too many questions.

I just re-read the relevant chapters and have a few more conclusions on the matter. Apologies if I'm repeating anything I've said previously. Apologies too for how doggone long this thing is, but I'm trying to be very thorough. You can skip to the bottom for my conclusion.

Let's start with

WHO POISONED JOFFREY?

Let's assume Joffrey was poisoned. There are two main questions here: who did it? And how?

The "how" is fairly easy to answer, although we can't be definitive: it was either the wine or the pigeon pie. But this leads to a secondary question: who was the target?

As we'll see below, if the pie was poisoned then the target could only have been Tyrion. But if the wine was poisoned, then the poisoner must have been willing to accept the risk that Margaery would die too. This would make the Tyrells an unlikely candidate, unless Margaery was in on the plot.

So, who did it? Readint the relevant chapter, is seems, contrary to what I just said, that the most likely poisoner is Garlan the Gallant. The second most likely is an unnamed serving man, and in third place is an unnamed serving girl. The Queen of Thorns might have swiped something from Sansa's hairnet, but she definitely didn't put it in anybody's drink.

Let's run down the sequence of events.

Before the feast, Olenna fiddles with Sansa's hairnet. (Note that this is from Tyrion's POV - he is watching it happen, and evidently doesn't notice anything amiss. He is a little drunk, though.)

The feast commences, with Joffrey and Margaery drinking wine from the same cup. Tyrion is at the far end of the table, like so:

Edge of the table ----- Sansa ----- Tyrion ----- Lady Leonette ---- Ser Gallan the Gallant ---- etc etc

Nothing important happens for a while, then Joffrey pours wine over Tyrion's head. Margaery appears at Joffrey's elbow, entreating him back to his seat to drink a toast. Lady Olenna arrives as well, leaning on her cane: we don't know exactly where she stands.

Joffrey makes Tyrion his cupbearer. When Tyrion goes to pick up Joffrey's cup - presumably off the floor although this isn't quite stated explicitly - Joffrey kicks it under the table. Tyrion has to crawl under there to fetch it. Given the size of the cup and the possibility that it landed near enough, this is the first opportunity that Garlan has to slip the poison into the cup.

Having found the cup, Tyrion then "claims a flagon from a serving girl" and fills it. This is the unnamed serving girl's opportunity to be the poisoner: she could have seen that the King's cup was empty, and rushed over with some poisoned wine.

Joffrey returns to his seat and Tyrion is served a slice of pigeon pie (topped with lemon cream). This is the unnamed serving man's chance.

At this point, Tyrion stands and makes to leave with Sansa - but before they can get away, Joffrey returns, demanding wine.

The King's chalice was on the table where he'd left it.

Perhaps Tyrion turned away as he stood to leave, or was otherwise distracted. If so, that was Garlan's second chance to poison the wine, and his first to poison the pie (or the cream). It's not mentioned if the cup is refilled at this time, so presumably it still has some left in it from before. It was a very large cup filled three-quarters full.

Joffrey drinks the wine and eats the pie in very quick succession, starts choking, blames the pie, and dies.

So, a few things are clearer to me. Garlan had the most opportunities to be the poisoner, but if he at any time poisoned the wine, he had no way of being sure that Margaery wouldn't drink from the same cup, unless she was in on it too and he gave her some signal. Evidently no such signal was given at least up until the cup went under the table, because Margaery was trying to get Joffrey to drink a toast with her right before that.

If either Garlan or the unnamed serving man poisoned the pie, there was no way of knowing that Joffrey would eat it. Further, if Tyrion was the target and Garlan the poisoner, his only opportunity to poison the pie was after Tyrion got up to leave. Repeat: Tyrion wasn't going to eat it either: he was already leaving before Garlan had an opportunity to poison the pie.

Garlan could have poisoned it anyway in the hopes that Tyrion was forced back to his seat, but that seems risky. If someone else ate the pie and died, Tyrion might have realised that someone was trying to kill him. Garlan had no way to dispose of the pie in that circumstance, and of course he certainly couldn't have anticipated that Joffrey would eat it.

And as for the Queen of Thorns, Lady Olenna is never close enough to do anything, pace John Suburbs:

The only explanation that conforms to the text and does not require a bunch of made-up theories is that... Lady O palmed the crystal from the hairnet and placed it in Tyrion's pie just before it was served.

We agree that she couldn't have done anything in full view of the feast, but what your theory requires is that Lady Olenna somehow left the feast and visited the kitchens to poison the exact slice of pie that Tyrion would eat. The kitchen staff would have seen her. Now, perhaps there were serving trays in the hall that she could have used, but that leaves her out in the open, and still doesn't explain how she knew which slice Tyrion would get. And bear in mind as well that she would have had to be very quick: the pie was served hot, i.e. not long after it was sliced. She couldn't have done it before it was sliced, or other people would have been poisoned.

If Lady Olenna is guilty, she must have slipped it to someone else, either Garlan or the unnamed serving man or, less likely, the unnamed serving girl. If you find it hard to believe that Garlan would have the sleight-of-hand skills necessary to poison the pie (or the chalice) in a room full of people, bear in mind that Olenna supposedly has the sleight-of-hand skills to winkle a jewel out of hairnet in a room full of people, one of whom - Tyrion - is looking right at her.

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CONSTRUCTING THE MILKSTOOL, OR, THE TRIAD OF TRUTHS RE: THE POISONING OF A PRICK, OR, WHAT DO WE KNOW AND HOW DO WE KNOW IT?

We can conclude that if there was poison in the pie, then not only was Tyrion the target, but the poison was most likely already in his slice before it reached the table, making the unnamed serving man the culprit. This of course raises the question: who was he working for?

If Joffrey was the target, then the poison had to be in the wine, making Garlan the Gallant the most likely culprit. However, this means Margaery must have been in the loop as well. Perhaps The Winds of Winter will confirm her involvement in the scheme, but so far, the only Tyrell confirmed to be in on it is Lady Olenna. We can infer Garlan's involvement from the events at the feast, but only if we already know that:

1. Joffrey was poisoned
2. The poison was smuggled in to the feast in Sansa's hairnet
3. Olenna palmed it when she fiddled with Sansa's hair

Ignore for the moment that Tyrion was watching Olenna as she fiddled. How do we know all this? Who are our sources?

1. Sansa, Cersei, Littlefinger, Tywin
2. Sansa, Littlefinger
3. Littlefinger

Let's dispense with Cersei and Tywin quickly. Cersei's rationale is something like this:

1. Tyrion definitely did it
2. He served Joffrey some wine
3. Therefore the wine was poisoned - that sneaky little dwarf!

Tywin's reasoning is more sound:

"Poison. It was meant to appear as though he choked on a morsel of food, but I had his throat slit open and the maesters could find no obstruction."

This fits what we know about The Strangler.

Now let's recap Sansa's chapters after the feast.

Sansa scarpers when Joffrey starts choking. I won't quote the whole thing, but I think a fair reading of her thoughts on her way to her chambers and then to the godswood suggests that she's already feeling guilty, or at least traumatised and stressed and confused. Guilty, I might add, for having wished for Joffrey's death. It's one thing to wish him dead, quite another to see him choke to death in front of you, especially when you're a high-strung teenage girl.

Anyway, she makes it to the godswood, where she examines her hairnet and notices that a stone is missing. She immediately suspects that Joffrey's wine was poisoned, that the missing stone was the poison, and that Dontos was the poisoner. Please note that this is before Dontos even arrives to take her away.

Upon arriving at HMS Littlefinger, Sansa tells Littlefinger that Joffrey was poisoned. She then spends the rest of the boat ride to the Fingers in her cabin. From Sansa VI:

She had seldom ventured out on deck herself. Her little cabin was dank and cold, but Sansa had been sick for most of the voyage . . . sick with terror, sick with fever, or seasick . . . she could keep nothing down, and even sleep came hard. Whenever she closed her eyes she saw Joffrey tearing at his collar, clawing at the soft skin of his throat, dying with flakes of pie crust on his lips and wine stains on his doublet. And the wind keening in the lines reminded her of the terrible thin sucking sound he'd made as he fought to draw in air. Sometimes she dreamed of Tyrion as well. "He did nothing," she told Littlefinger once, when he paid a visit to her cabin to see if she were feeling any better.

She doesn't hear anything more about the regicide until they arrive at Littlefinger's holdfast. Then, in conversation, she brings up the subject, somewhat abruptly, accusing Littlefinger of having Dontos poison Joffrey. Littlefinger denies Dontos's involvement and gives a non-denial denial of his own. He mentions that Dontos was to ensure that Sansa wore her hairnet.

Littlefinger then mentions the Kettleblacks, and Sansa asks if they were the ones to put the poison in Joffrey's cup. He says no.

And then, again from Sansa VI:

Petyr smiled. "I will wager you that at some point during the evening someone told you that your hair net was crooked and straightened it for you."
Sansa raised a hand to her mouth. "You cannot mean . . . she wanted to take me to Highgarden, to marry me to her grandson . . ."

Littlefinger then explains how he manipulated the Tyrells while at Highgarden, and why Olenna Tyrell wanted Joffrey dead, although he curiously leaves out the mechanics of how he plotted with Olenna Tyrell.

There's a lot to unpack here, and I'll be returning to it a few times, but let's start with the question asked earlier. We know that:

1. Joffrey was poisoned
2. The poison was smuggled in to the feast in Sansa's hairnet
3. Olenna palmed it when she fiddled with Sansa's hair

And our sources are:

1. Sansa, Cersei, Littlefinger, Tywin
2. Sansa, Littlefinger
3. Littlefinger

My question is: can we trust our sources here?

Let's start with Sansa: no, we can't. Sansa has jumped to the conclusion that her poison hairnet did for Joffrey from the very moment she discovers her hairnet has a stone missing. Now, given her age and her emotional state at the time I don't think it strange that she made that assumption, but there is, at that point, no rational basis for it.

So really, we only know that Joffrey was poisoned because Tywin and Littlefinger both said so - and Littlefinger is our only source for Lady Olenna's hairnet scheme.

Given Littlefinger's general trustworthiness, I don't think it's unreasonable to be skeptical of anything he says, and there are in fact reasons to doubt his truthfulness now: almost everything he tells Sansa is something she's already told him.

She's the one who tells him that Joffrey was poisoned. She's the one who tells him that the poison was in his cup, i.e. his wine. And she names Olenna Tyrell before Littlefinger mentions anything about a Tyrell conspiracy.

Now, I'm rehashing enough points here without going into why he would lie. That's at the top of the thread. All I'm doing here is trying to establish that he could have been lying. Most of the evidence fits that proposition equally well:

• He had a motive to lie
• Sansa thinks the poison was in her hairnet even before Littlefinger says so
• She's the one who tells him about the poisoning
• She's observably riddled with guilt
• She's the first to implicate the Tyrells, and specifically Lady Olenna
• Everything Littlefinger says about the Tyrell motive could have been overheard at Bitterbridge or inferred by someone as savvy as he
• We know he's a gambler and he's good at improvising
• We also know he endeavours to be prepared for any eventuality, and he's had a long boat ride to think up lies and schemes to bind Sansa closer to him

But there's one big hole with this theory that Littlefinger lied: how did he know about the hairnet's missing stone, or that anybody had touched the hairnet? There are four possibilities:

1. Littlefinger has seen the hairnet with its missing stone, and is willing to gamble that somebody messed with her hairnet
2. Littlefinger has seen the hairnet with its missing stone, and Sansa mentioned,off-page, that someone at the wedding fiddled with her hairnet
3. Littlefinger has no idea about the missing stone, but Sansa mentioned, off-page, that someone at the wedding fiddled with her hairnet
4. Sansa talked about both the hairnet and the missing stone off-page

No. 1 is possible and fits with Littlefinger's character - see his bold and bald-faced to Catelyn over his dagger. And maybe when wearing a hairnet it often falls out of place, and strangers often make a habit of fixing it for you. I don't know: being a manly man (no, really) who's never worn a hairnet, I couldn't say for sure.

However, no. 1 invites two further questions: while on that ship, how did Littlefinger come across the hairnet, and why did he have her wear it in the first place? The first is easy to answer: some servants could have found it and returned it to him, he could have seen it Sansa's room, etc. The second is not easy to answer. In fact, I have no idea. Again, perhaps The Winds of Winter will solve this mystery, but short some word of God this is another giant weak spot in the theory.

No.'s 2, 3 & 4 are technically possible:

She had seldom ventured out on deck herself. Her little cabin was dank and cold, but Sansa had been sick for most of the voyage . . . sick with terror, sick with fever, or seasick . . . she could keep nothing down, and even sleep came hard. Whenever she closed her eyes she saw Joffrey tearing at his collar, clawing at the soft skin of his throat, dying with flakes of pie crust on his lips and wine stains on his doublet. And the wind keening in the lines reminded her of the terrible thin sucking sound he'd made as he fought to draw in air. Sometimes she dreamed of Tyrion as well. "He did nothing," she told Littlefinger once, when he paid a visit to her cabin to see if she were feeling any better.

But this would hardly be playing fair with the readers, even if Sansa's an unreliable narrator, all terrified and sleep-deprived. No. 3 has the additional problem that he has no reason to believe that Sansa thinks her hairnet was involved with the poisoning. I think we can rule out no. 3.

Returning to our original set of facts, then:

1. Joffrey was poisoned
2. The poison was smuggled in to the feast in Sansa's hairnet
3. Olenna palmed it when she fiddled with Sansa's hair

And our sources, this time crossing out the unreliable ones:

1. Sansa, Cersei, Littlefinger?, Tywin
2. Sansa, Littlefinger?
3. Littlefinger?

We can now see that propositions 2 and 3 are entirely unreliable. They cannot be proved, absent a decent alternative explanation of the following:

1. How did Littlefinger know that a stone was missing from the hairnet?
2. How did Littlefinger know that someone fiddled with the hairnet?
3. What was the hairnet for?

The best explanation is, of course, the one Littlefinger provided, but I believe I have at least demonstrated a plausible possibility that the poison wasn't smuggled in via Sansa's hairnet.

All that's left is that Joffrey was poisoned, and that returns us to our earlier questions. We can now say the following:

1. Joffrey was poisoned
2. If the pie was poisoned, then Tyrion was the target and the unnamed serving man the culprit
3. If it was in the wine, then Joffrey was the target and Garlan the most likely culprit.
4. If Garlan was involved, then Margaery had to have been too
5. Conversely if Margaery was not involved, then the best candidate is the unnamed serving girl.

We will need to wait for further books to elucidate who the unnamed serving man really served (pun intended!), or to confirm Margaery's knowledge of the plot.

However, as mentioned earlier, if there was a Tyrell conspiracy, we can only deduce Margaery and Garlan's involvement through inference, and this is an inference based on this increasingly wonky triad:

1. Joffrey was poisoned
2. The poison was smuggled in to the feast in Sansa's hairnet
3. Olenna palmed it when she fiddled with Sansa's hair

If we don't trust 2 or 3 - and for the sake of the argument, let's not - then all we have left is no. 1, for which the only unimpeachable source is Tywin:

"Poison. It was meant to appear as though he choked on a morsel of food, but I had his throat slit open and the maesters could find no obstruction."

However, as I pondered upthread - and in greater detail here: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/131682-did-joffrey-choke/- Tywin isn't really the source of that information, is he?

Full details at the link just provided, but I think it's fair to say that Grand Maester Pycelle is the true source of the only solid proof we have that Joffrey was poisoned - and he had a very good reason to lie, viz. revenge on Tyrion. This makes the whole triad contingent on the word of reliably unreliable people, and means that it's actually quite possible that Joffrey was never poisoned at all: Pycelle lied to get vengeance on Tyrion, Littlefinger lied to get leverage over Sansa, and the whole thing's just a big fucking clusterfuck. It'll take some further information in The Winds of Winter to put this thing to bed.

Oh, and one more thing: Littlefinger tells Sansa he was negotiating with the Tyrells at Highgarden - but wasn't they supposed to be at Bitterbridge? Probably just an oversight on the author's part, but you never know...

[John Suburbs]

Sorry, there are so many things either wrong in your post or impossible to determine from the text. I'll try and make this quick because it's late:

1) It is not certain that Tyrion and Sansa are sitting at the end of the table. "A dozen others sat closer to the king," but there is no mention of whether they are the farthest out. Also, there is no way to tell in what order anyone is sitting or whether Garlen and Leonette to the left or right of Tyrion and Sansa.

2) Joffrey did not drink the wine and eat the pie in very quick succession, at least not as quick as Cressen:

Cressen: drinks a small sip of wine and drops the goblet. Mel says "He does have power here my lord, and fire cleanses." Cressen tries to speak but his throat is already closed.

Joffrey: takes a long drink of the supposedly poisoned wine, the muscles of his throat working. Margy says "My lord, we should return to our places. Lord Buckler wants to toast us." Joffrey stops drinking and says "My uncle hasn't eaten his pigeon pie." Then he grabs a handful of pie and says "It's ill luck not to eat the pie" and shoves it into his gob. Then he says, "See, it's good" and gives a slight cough.

This is the first indication that anything is wrong. We are already twice as long as the time it took to bring Cressen to his knees and all we have from Joffrey is a tiny cough. Then:

He grabs another fistful "Dry, though. Needs washing down." He takes another drink and coughs harder. "I want to see, kof, see you ride that, kof kof, pig, Uncle. I want.." The coughing is more violent. Margy says, "Your Grace?" "Its, kof, the pie, noth - kof, pie" He tries to take another drink but the wine and pie come spilling back into the chalice. "I, kof, I can't, kof, kof, kof," and that's the last we hear of Joffrey.

I make that to be a 4:1 time discrepancy between initial ingestion and incapacitation, minimum.

3) There is no reason to believe that Lady O had to leave the feast in order to poison the pie in the kitchen. The pies are served immediately after the pigeons are released, so obviously they are already lined up behind the head table ready to be served. And lo and behold, who is standing right in the immediate area just before the cutting, why Lady O of course. The moment the servant looks up at the pigeon, in goes the poison in the blink of an eye. All your subsequent mentions of an "unnamed server" rest on this flaw in logic.

4) Aboard ship, Littlefinger mentions the death of the king before Sansa does. I chalk this up to either he heard the bells from KL before moving farther out into the bay or, more likely, he has someone at the wedding ready to bug out to the ship or at least provide some kind of ship-to-shore signal to let LF know what is going on and whether he needs to split for Braavos.

5) The whole part about whether LF lied or not, you are glossing over the most obvious answer. That LF provided the hairnet with the poison, instructed Lady O how to retrieve it (he probably even had a duplicate made), and then Lady O poisoned the pie, which was either on a table directly behind Tyrion's place or already in the hands of a server.

6) The proof that Joffrey was poisoned is right there on the page. Exact same crystal, exact same symptoms. Pycelle has no reason to lie to Tywin and Tywin has no reason to want Tyrion dead. Tyrion is his key to gaining the north through Sansa. If Tywin wanted someone else to become lord regent of Winterfell, he wouldn't have bothered to marry her to Tyrion.

Also, Garlen seems to be a genuinely noble knight who was very impressed by Tyrion's bravery and ingenuity during the battle of the Blackwater. Is he lying? Is he really a sniveling coward who would stoop to poison in order to kill an enemy?

And you forget the most important source of all: Tyrion. It's his POV where the whole thing goes down, and the only way you can put the poison in the wine is a lengthy string of suppositions and assumptions that are literally made up out of whole cloth: Garlen did it, Leonette did it, the wine diluted the poison, it was a weaker poison than Cressen's, Littlefinger knows people to the point that he can predict exactly where the chalice would be so our other imaginary poisoner could do the deed, Joffrey wanted to kill Margy, Margy and Lady O were afraid of Joffrey...

In the end, what it comes down to is few people are capable of getting past their won visceral hatred of Joffrey to realize that not everyone in the story wanted him dead. So therefore, any explanation that satisfies this preconceived conclusion must be the truth.

The reality is that neither LF nor Lady O had any reason to kill Joffrey -- in fact, both of their games were based on him being alive and fathering a child on Margy. But Tyrion was a clear and present danger to both, as I explained earlier.

And with the pie, we don't need to invent any other scenarios or alternate poisoners. Lady O, acting alone, poisoned the pie.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Well, I think we're going in circles here, although your point is well made. But there are some holes in your logic which I will endeavour to correct:

Sorry, there are so many things either wrong in your post or impossible to determine from the text. I'll try and make this quick because it's late:

1) It is not certain that Tyrion and Sansa are sitting at the end of the table. "A dozen others sat closer to the king," but there is no mention of whether they are the farthest out. Also, there is no way to tell in what order anyone is sitting or whether Garlen and Leonette to the left or right of Tyrion and Sansa.

I'd need to double-check about Sansa being on the end of the table, but it's certain that Lady Leonette sits between Tyrion and Garlan, as Garlan has to lean over his Lady to talk to Tyrion.

2) Joffrey did not drink the wine and eat the pie in very quick succession, at least not as quick as Cressen:

Cressen: drinks a small sip of wine and drops the goblet. Mel says "He does have power here my lord, and fire cleanses." Cressen tries to speak but his throat is already closed.

Joffrey: takes a long drink of the supposedly poisoned wine, the muscles of his throat working. Margy says "My lord, we should return to our places. Lord Buckler wants to toast us." Joffrey stops drinking and says "My uncle hasn't eaten his pigeon pie." Then he grabs a handful of pie and says "It's ill luck not to eat the pie" and shoves it into his gob. Then he says, "See, it's good" and gives a slight cough.

This is the first indication that anything is wrong. We are already twice as long as the time it took to bring Cressen to his knees and all we have from Joffrey is a tiny cough. Then:

He grabs another fistful "Dry, though. Needs washing down." He takes another drink and coughs harder. "I want to see, kof, see you ride that, kof kof, pig, Uncle. I want.." The coughing is more violent. Margy says, "Your Grace?" "Its, kof, the pie, noth - kof, pie" He tries to take another drink but the wine and pie come spilling back into the chalice. "I, kof, I can't, kof, kof, kof," and that's the last we hear of Joffrey.

I make that to be a 4:1 time discrepancy between initial ingestion and incapacitation, minimum.

That's a lot of speculation. It's a written text: we can't time things out down to the second. Cressen was old, frail, and drinking poison on an empty stomach; Joffrey was young, healthy, and stuffed full of food. It's possible the poison could have been slowed down. Or, perhaps Joffrey spoke quickly, and Melisandre slowly, and the times are about the same. We don't know. (And this also presupposes that every batch of a poison will have the same effects, but we see elsewhere that a poison can be modified. Just a thought.)

3) There is no reason to believe that Lady O had to leave the feast in order to poison the pie in the kitchen. The pies are served immediately after the pigeons are released, so obviously they are already lined up behind the head table ready to be served. And lo and behold, who is standing right in the immediate area just before the cutting, why Lady O of course. The moment the servant looks up at the pigeon, in goes the poison in the blink of an eye. All your subsequent mentions of an "unnamed server" rest on this flaw in logic.

There's no evidence for any of this: we don't know where the pies are before being served, and we don't know where Lady Olenna is. I agree that the cutting of the pigeon pie would make a welcome distraction, but your other assertions are unfortunately not supported by the text.

4) Aboard ship, Littlefinger mentions the death of the king before Sansa does. I chalk this up to either he heard the bells from KL before moving farther out into the bay or, more likely, he has someone at the wedding ready to bug out to the ship or at least provide some kind of ship-to-shore signal to let LF know what is going on and whether he needs to split for Braavos.

You're right, he did mention it before she did. My mistake.

5) The whole part about whether LF lied or not, you are glossing over the most obvious answer. That LF provided the hairnet with the poison, instructed Lady O how to retrieve it (he probably even had a duplicate made), and then Lady O poisoned the pie, which was either on a table directly behind Tyrion's place or already in the hands of a server.

To be fair, I have mentioned more than once that Littlefinger's probably telling the truth, and I'm probably wrong.

6) The proof that Joffrey was poisoned is right there on the page. Exact same crystal, exact same symptoms. Pycelle has no reason to lie to Tywin and Tywin has no reason to want Tyrion dead. Tyrion is his key to gaining the north through Sansa. If Tywin wanted someone else to become lord regent of Winterfell, he wouldn't have bothered to marry her to Tyrion.

I don't say that Tywin wanted Tyrion dead, I say that Pycelle might've. He has a reason to lie, unless you think that his devotion to Tywin is so total that he wouldn't take a chance for revenge when it sprung up, in which case you have a higher opinion of Pycelle than I do. I think I mentioned elsewhere though, the fact that Pycelle is dead kind of shuts down my argument here. I doubt Martin would write a mystery that couldn't be solved within the text of the books.

Also, Garlen seems to be a genuinely noble knight who was very impressed by Tyrion's bravery and ingenuity during the battle of the Blackwater. Is he lying? Is he really a sniveling coward who would stoop to poison in order to kill an enemy?

Why not? It's not like he's the only knight whose gallantry is a sham.

And you forget the most important source of all: Tyrion. It's his POV where the whole thing goes down, and the only way you can put the poison in the wine is a lengthy string of suppositions and assumptions that are literally made up out of whole cloth: Garlen did it, Leonette did it, the wine diluted the poison, it was a weaker poison than Cressen's, Littlefinger knows people to the point that he can predict exactly where the chalice would be so our other imaginary poisoner could do the deed, Joffrey wanted to kill Margy, Margy and Lady O were afraid of Joffrey...

I don't want to repeat myself too much, but there's two or three different ways the wine could've been poisoned, and two viable ways the pie could've been poisoned, neither of which involve Olenna. Or Leonette, for that matter. And the only way that Garlan could've poisoned the pie would invalidate Tyrion being the target. Having the serving man as a catspaw solves this logical conundrum, but does of course raise its own questions. But I'm repeating myself. I suspect we'll have to agree to disagree, although I admire your arguments.

In the end, what it comes down to is few people are capable of getting past their won visceral hatred of Joffrey to realize that not everyone in the story wanted him dead. So therefore, any explanation that satisfies this preconceived conclusion must be the truth.

No, I can't get past my innate mistrust of Littlefinger, and I think there are good logical reasons to think that something else might've happened.

The reality is that neither LF nor Lady O had any reason to kill Joffrey -- in fact, both of their games were based on him being alive and fathering a child on Margy. But Tyrion was a clear and present danger to both, as I explained earlier.

And with the pie, we don't need to invent any other scenarios or alternate poisoners. Lady O, acting alone, poisoned the pie.

We disagree, although I would point out that Olenna poisoning the pie to kill Tyrion is as much an invented/alternative scenario as mine. You're still positing that Littlefinger lied to Sansa with, as yet, no other direct evidence. Perhaps we shall see in later books, hey?