The Fall of the Tyrells?

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

The Tyrells aren't a royal house, though. Margaery is merely Tommen's queen, and that marriage isn't even consummated. Yes, they are sort of at the peak of their power now, controlling the government of the boy king. But they don't have to go down with him. They can abandon him - or some branches of the house can. Should Tommen die or Margaery be convicted/killed the alliance will be over, anyway.

“Preparations should be made for Princess Myrcella.”

“This is what comes of dealing with the Dornish,” Mace Tyrell said. “Surely a better match can be found for the girl?”

Such as your own son Willas, perhaps? Her disfigured by one Dornishman, him crippled by another? “No doubt,” Ser Kevan said, “but we have enemies enough without offending Dorne. If Doran Martell were to join his strength to Connington’s in support of this feigned dragon, things could go very ill for all of us.”

Nothing suggests that Randyll Tarly is either a friend of the Golden Company nor a very convinced (former) Targaryen loyalists. Other Reach Lords are more likely to switch sides - Lord Titus Peake (married to Margot Lannister), Lord Mathis Rowan (who commands the skeleton army who continues the Tyrell siege of Storm's End since Mace returned to KL), and Lord and Lady Merryweather (who may already be working for Varys).

No way. Laswell is an exiled Lord. He calls himself a lord.. he means to recover his castle... or castles (house peake had 3 castles, there are three peake brothers in the GC).. the current lord won´t give up his lands in favor of distant, exiled relatives.

Rowan and Tarly could bend the knee after being defeated in the stormalands.

[Lord Wraith]

I expect House Tyrell to be saved to an extent by Willas, but their pretensions to greater power will be seriously checked. They may lose Highgarden.

Margaery and Loras will both die. Don't know about Garlan and his wife. Mace will die. Olenna will die.

Willas' best chance will be to side with the Targs (Dany has the dragons so if he can wait for her that would be a fair choice). And I'd like to see him offer marriage to Asha Greyjoy. Euron wouldn't care but the other Ironborn might think twice about messing with Asha's husband.

Having Willas in charge will be good for the House. I wonder if he and Olenna are cooking up anything in Highgarden.

[Lord Varys]

What Laswell Peake wants we do not really know. All captains of the Golden Company are expecting to be rewarded with lands and castles for seating Aegon VI on the Iron Throne. Laswell and the other Peakes in the Golden Company may aim at bigger prices. But considering the history of House Peake with the Blackfyres I find it very likely that Titus is one of the friends the Golden Company still has in the Reach.

Mathis Rowan will most likely bend the knee - perhaps even without much or any coercion at all. He is the only one of Mace's cronies who is actually disgusted about the murder of Aegon and Rhaenys back in ASoS. And Lord Mathis is a really great lord of the Reach, possibly the third most powerful bannerman of House Tyrell after the Hightowers and the Redwynes - although Lady Oakheart would also fit into that category. The Tarlys aren't quite in the same league, if I'm not mistaken.

But Mace could also bend the knee if he is taken alive by the Golden Company/the Dornishmen. And, strictly speaking, even the Lannisters - or branches of that house - could join King Aegon. Tommen and Myrcella are Baratheons, Kevan is dead, Lancel is with the Warrior's Sons, which means back in the West those Lannister cousins actually in CR may begin thinking their own thoughts. Should Cersei not return soon she and Tommen may lose the support of their own bannermen.

[JasonJD]

Becoming a Maesters isn't nearly the big deal that the NW is, in terms of ruling you out of succession.

First, it takes years and years to become one, and until you do you're just a guy. And second, there are ex-Maesters walking around breathing fine. It's not the all or nothing lifetime commitment that the NW is. Aemon becoming a maester isn't what ensured he'd 'play no role', but rather becoming the Maester of the NW.

It may be a bit off-topic, but I've always kinda seen the Maester's abandoning their family ties as supposed to be the same as the NW and Kingsguard, but that over time the meaning of it has been diluted, especially without the enforced penalty of execution. We see this happening with the Kingsguard as well, with Barristan being removed and Tywin's efforts to get Jamie out, despite it supposedly being a lifelong vow and a separation from family.

[John Suburbs]

As per the chapter readings from tWoW, JonCon and the GC have already taken Storm's End and are marching north to meet Mace and Tarly in the field. That would mean 10,000 or so sellswords, plus elephants, against probably 30,000 Reachmen. Those odds might work out if you have a castle like SE to protect you, but on an open field it's a lot less certain.

But even if JonCon wins, his army will be devastated and he has no chance of bringing Highgarden around to his cause, and without Highgarden his chances of gaining the IT are slim to none.

That's why I think he's going to cut a deal with Mace. He'll say "join me or face a protracted siege at Storm's End while the rest of you realm falls to the ironmen." Mace might waver, but Tarly will see the sense of it and convince him to go along.

[Lord Varys]

We only know from a quite early reading that Arianne 2 mentioned that the Tyrells are marching against Storm's End, not the other way around. And we also do not know how big the Tyrell army is - if Mace has troubles with the Faith and the Lannisters in the city, or his position there is shaky (which is quite likely) - he'd be well-advised to keep a good portion of his strength in the capital.

Considering that George has decided to write/has already written a chapter on the conquest of Storm's End - most likely from Jon's POV - the content of Arianne 2 and the aftermath may have changed (say, because the time line changed).

And Mace may actually not be able to send his full strength against Aegon if Cersei and/or Tommen successfully flee KL, and he has to dispatch men to bring back the king. After all, if he was Regent and Hand to an absentee king his whole cause would quickly crumble. Margaery's status wouldn't matter all that much, either, if King Tommen isn't with his wife.

[joffrey fan]

Tyrells were Targaryean loyalists, and fought for them in Robert's Rebellion. Dany won't willingly let them go extinct.

I think Wilas will survive and will be the lord of the Reach by the end of the series.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

What Laswell Peake wants we do not really know. All captains of the Golden Company are expecting to be rewarded with lands and castles for seating Aegon VI on the Iron Throne. Laswell and the other Peakes in the Golden Company may aim at bigger prices. But considering the history of House Peake with the Blackfyres I find it very likely that Titus is one of the friends the Golden Company still has in the Reach.

What we do know points towards the opposite i think. Laswell peake is the only "lord" of the Golden Company. That means he still "claims" his lands as his own.. the same way Dany would say she is Queen iof the Seven Kingdoms...Him and his two brothers are probably the senior branch of House Peake. Exiled after some failed rebellion.. The lesser branch got to keep the one castle and lands.. and they are currently married to the Lannisters.

Do you think they would actually give them back to some distant relative? Who would do that?

it is true we do not know what Laswell Peake wants.. But the Peakes were a very proud and powerfull family. I´m sure they are after getting back what they once had. 3 castles, for 3 brothers.. seems like a clue.

More likely, the "Friends in the Reach", are actually lesser houses..those that got humilated and lost much after bending the knee.. think of Ser Eustance Osgrey.. Former blackfyre loyalists.

Other houses, more powerful, will also join, IMO, aegon, but for different reasons.

Mathis Rowan will most likely bend the knee - perhaps even without much or any coercion at all. He is the only one of Mace's cronies who is actually disgusted about the murder of Aegon and Rhaenys back in ASoS. And Lord Mathis is a really great lord of the Reach, possibly the third most powerful bannerman of House Tyrell after the Hightowers and the Redwynes - although Lady Oakheart would also fit into that category. The Tarlys aren't quite in the same league, if I'm not mistaken.

My position is that Aegon will defeat his token force, so that SE´s defenders think that the Golden company is their relief force..and open the gates.

He could be pardoned afterwards if he bends the knee.

But Mace could also bend the knee if he is taken alive by the Golden Company/the Dornishmen. And, strictly speaking, even the Lannisters - or branches of that house - could join King Aegon. Tommen and Myrcella are Baratheons, Kevan is dead, Lancel is with the Warrior's Sons, which means back in the West those Lannister cousin actually in CR may begin thinking their own thoughts. Should Cersei not return soon she and Tommen may lose the support of their own bannermen.

The thing is that Aegon can´t offer Mace much more than what he currently has.. Why would he submitt to Aegon when his house is on top? as long as he feels more powerful there is no reason. unfortunatly for house Tyrell i think their downfall will be quite fast and sudden.

With regards to the Lannisters.. the current castellan, and the curretn Warden, are both far away in the succession line.. their positions depend on Cersei, i´m not sure they would turn cloak.

But i do think the Lannister Regime will face internal opposition. Spicers and Westerlings in fact...Sybelle has enough motives to hate the lannisters.. they killed one of his sons, they cheated her with the marriage proposal, and now Jeyne will be killed by lannister men, when the BwB/the blackfish tries to rescue her.

[Lord Wraith]

As per the chapter readings from tWoW, JonCon and the GC have already taken Storm's End and are marching north to meet Mace and Tarly in the field. That would mean 10,000 or so sellswords, plus elephants, against probably 30,000 Reachmen. Those odds might work out if you have a castle like SE to protect you, but on an open field it's a lot less certain.

But even if JonCon wins, his army will be devastated and he has no chance of bringing Highgarden around to his cause, and without Highgarden his chances of gaining the IT are slim to none.

That's why I think he's going to cut a deal with Mace. He'll say "join me or face a protracted siege at Storm's End while the rest of you realm falls to the ironmen." Mace might waver, but Tarly will see the sense of it and convince him to go along.

Remember Randyll Tarly was a loyalist during Robert's Rebellion. Furthermore he knows that the Lannisters are a sinking ship.

[Mithras]

Remember Randyll Tarly was a loyalist during Robert's Rebellion. Furthermore he knows that the Lannisters are a sinking ship.

Moreover, he should find fAegon who fights and leads his own battles more endearing than the plump boy at the KL.

[Lord Varys]

Peakes:

My point being there is that the Golden Company should know that they are in a very weak position if they antagonize any possible allies they may have in Westeros on purpose. Jon Connington is very aware of that fact, and goes to considerable length to kill as few people as possible and no nobles whatsoever (i.e. for instance, his own Connington kin). His goal is to win the Stormlords to their sides - possibly not only those whose lands and castles they have already taken, but also the more powerful lords of the Dornish Marches.

Thus Laswell Peake demanding whatever castle Lord Titus still holds in the Reach (possibly Starpike) wouldn't be the best idea. Laswell's branch could, for instance, take one of the three castles the Peakes lost during the First Blackfyre Rebellion (if they still stand) or aim at a much bigger price - say, the Arbor, or Horn Hill should the Tarlys and Redwynes stay true to King Tommen.

The history and decline of House Peake is still very much a mystery - the First Blackfyre Rebellion cost Gormon Peake two castles, the Second his life. I could see Laswell's branch being descended from an elder son of Gormon who joined Haegon Blackfyre during the Third Rebellion and fled into exile thereafter. The Peake Uprising during which Maekar died apparently led to the murder of six Peake prisoners at the hands of the Red Lion who hungered for revenge in the wake of his own father's death (those details are from George's full account on the Westerlands on his page). My guess is thus that Titus Peake is either the sole surviving male Peake left in Westeros after that slaughter - i.e. was either an infant or a child in the womb during the storming of Starpike (which would put him into his late sixties during the series - or the son of that sole survivor. Lord Gerold Lannister may later have arranged the match between Titus and Margot in an attempt to make up for the Red Lion's transgressions. Lannister gold could also explain how/why Starpike still exists today - it helped rebuilding the castle (however we don't know yet whether it still stands).

House Osgrey-Webber seems to be extinguished/in exile, too, as there is a Webber among the Windblown in ADwD - possibly due to a descendant of Rohanne and Eustace following in his father's footsteps and joining Daemon III during the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion.

If the Golden Company doesn't have any big names among their alleged friends they will not stand a chance against the might of House Tyrell. They have to have at least one or two great lords of the Reach.

We supposedly know that the conquest of Storm's End is going to be bloody. I doubt that the blood of the Reach men will be spilled, however, I think the Golden Company will be forced to fight some members of Stannis' garrison to the death after the castle gates have been opened.

As to the Lannisters:

Yes, the Lannisters Cersei appointed to Warden of the West and castellan of Casterly Rock are indeed not exactly at the top of the line of succession for Casterly Rock. But if they effectively control the West and CR they might begin thinking for their own, especially if they learn what has transpired/is transpiring in KL. Cersei's direct heirs are Tommen and Myrcella, and then Kevan's young children come, after that lost Tion Lannister (son of Tygett), followed by Genna and her children and grandchildren. But she, too, isn't there, and Kevan's wife Dorna Swyft apparently hasn't the interest to play the game in the name of her children Martyn (Kevan's heir) and Janei. I'd not be surprised if Daven or Damion Lannister decided to take matters in their own hands - Daven (who should be somewhat close/loyal to Tywin's children due to the fact that he is their cousin through his aunt Joanna) isn't there either, though, as he is still in the Riverlands.

Sybelle and Gawen are accompanying Jeyne, are they not? I could easily see them dying, too. Either during the battle or in the aftermath should they fall into Catelyn's hands. They shouldn't be able to pose a threat to the Lannisters, though, as they aren't very rich nor necessarily well-liked in the West due to their entanglement with the Starks.

[BaelorTheBold]

The Tyrells aren't a royal house, though. Margaery is merely Tommen's queen, and that marriage isn't even consummated. Yes, they are sort of at the peak of their power now, controlling the government of the boy king. But they don't have to go down with him. They can abandon him - or some branches of the house can. Should Tommen die or Margaery be convicted/killed the alliance will be over, anyway.

Isn't House Tyrell considered a Great House? Lord Paramounts? Or is there a difference in Royal House and Great House? Anyways I agree that they are at their peak. With all the positioning they have been doing in Kings Landing I think it is only a matter of time before things starting blowing up in their faces as Aegon and Dany make there ways to KL (eventually). Even if they decide to switch sides I think something is going to bite them in the butt.

[John Suburbs]

We only know from a quite early reading that Arianne 2 mentioned that the Tyrells are marching against Storm's End, not the other way around. And we also do not know how big the Tyrell army is - if Mace has troubles with the Faith and the Lannisters in the city, or his position there is shaky (which is quite likely) - he'd be well-advised to keep a good portion of his strength in the capital.

Considering that George has decided to write/has already written a chapter on the conquest of Storm's End - most likely from Jon's POV - the content of Arianne 2 and the aftermath may have changed (say, because the time line changed).

And Mace may actually not be able to send his full strength against Aegon if Cersei and/or Tommen successfully flee KL, and he has to dispatch men to bring back the king. After all, if he was Regent and Hand to an absentee king his whole cause would quickly crumble. Margaery's status wouldn't matter all that much, either, if King Tommen isn't with his wife.

I'm pretty sure that reports from people who have heard A2 are that Haldon tells Arianne that Storm's End has fallen, and I can't find it now but I remember reports that said JonCon was marching north toward the Tyrell host coming south. So even if this is an accurate depiction of the chapter, can Haldon be believed? Maybe so, maybe not. If JonCon took SE by force, he has done something that none of the greatest military leaders of the past 8000 years have done, and then leaving the safety of SE to face an enemy in the field is exactly the same mistake that Argilac the Arrogant made during the Conquest -- which is a tale that JC would be very familiar with.

But regardless of whether any of this is true, JC has to bring Highgarden around to his cause somehow or else his goal of taking the IT becomes immensely more difficult. And as I said, Mace will need a quick way to dispose of his obligation to SE so he can march to defend the Reach. Then Mace can bring the GC into Kings Landing undercover and dispose of all the Lannisters before they even know they've been betrayed.

I'm not saying this will happen, but it's what I would be thinking if I were JC and Mace.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Peakes:

My point being there is that the Golden Company should know that they are in a very weak position if they antagonize any possible allies they may have in Westeros on purpose. Jon Connington is very aware of that fact, and goes to considerable length to kill as few people as possible and no nobles whatsoever (i.e. for instance, his own Connington kin). His goal is to win the Stormlords to their sides - possibly not only those whose lands and castles they have already taken, but also the more powerful lords of the Dornish Marches.

Thus Laswell Peake demanding whatever castle Lord Titus still holds in the Reach (possibly Starpike) wouldn't be the best idea. Laswell's branch could, for instance, take one of the three castles the Peakes lost during the First Blackfyre Rebellion (if they still stand) or aim at a much bigger price - say, the Arbor, or Horn Hill should the Tarlys and Redwynes stay true to King Tommen.

i get what you say, but we also have many clues of the Golden Company mercenaries being proud and dispossessed lords trying to get back what is theirs.. but the only actual lord, is Laswell. He is the only listed member of the Golden Company that claims to be a lord.. an exiled lord.. That seems like a big hint of the lands he want for his service.. Starpike.. maybe the other two castles as well.

and we have a local Peake, Titus, that is married to the Lannisters.. so, my point is that the text hits that the Golden Company Peakes won´t be friends at all with the current holders of Starkpike.

House Osgrey-Webber seems to be extinguished/in exile, too, as there is a Webber among the Windblown in ADwD - possibly due to a descendant of Rohanne and Eustace following in his father's footsteps and joining Daemon III during the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion.

I understand, i was just pointing out an example of the kind of house that would be friends with the Golden Company.. there are many former blackfyre loyalist still around.

The houses that were reduced after bending the knee, and humiliated. The ones that lost much and more for being black, would be the ones that probably joined the Golden Company in the many invasions they attempted.

this time it will happen as well.

If the Golden Company doesn't have any big names among their alleged friends they will not stand a chance against the might of House Tyrell. They have to have at least one or two great lords of the Reach.

many powerful houses from the Reach will join aegon.. just not IMO for being secret friends with Laswell peake..

Look at the history of the Blackfyre rebellions..each time the attempts were more pathetic than the last ones.. that means the Golden Company has been lossing friends over time.. and the friends they had were lossing power over time.. (It makes sense right?)

So the notion that some great lord will join them just because they kept in touch doens´t make much sense to me.

Lesser houses, sure.. Hightower, Rowan, Tarly and so on... very very unlikely... they will probably turn Cloak for the typical reasons (the tyrells being fu..cked could be one... Aegon saving the Reach from Euron, could be another.. resentment against the upjumped stewards will probably help as well)

Merryweather is a possibility..

We supposedly know that the conquest of Storm's End is going to be bloody. I doubt that the blood of the Reach men will be spilled, however, I think the Golden Company will be forced to fight some members of Stannis' garrison to the death after the castle gates have been opened.

i disagree.. they would have to selll it... if they arrive and the token force, under rowan´s command surrenders immediately, the defenders could think it was a trick.. why risk it?

better destroy them and capture anyone of importance.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Becoming a Maesters isn't nearly the big deal that the NW is, in terms of ruling you out of succession.

First, it takes years and years to become one, and until you do you're just a guy. And second, there are ex-Maesters walking around breathing fine. It's not the all or nothing lifetime commitment that the NW is. Aemon becoming a maester isn't what ensured he'd 'play no role', but rather becoming the Maester of the NW.

:agree:

I'm sure there are a few Maesters who decided that the life of service and celibacy wasn't for them, they might be stripped of their chain and permanently barred from entering the Citedal/Oldtown, but there's no way they actually execute Maesters who decide to break their vows.