When did the Andals leave Essos?

[Mithras]

Now this is said to have happened about 2300 years ago, 2000 years before Aegon's Conquest. 

 

Do you have the exact quote in mind because I don't remember such a date for this?

[AlaskanSandman]

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Tall_Men

 

Proud and quarrelsome, they seldom unified under a single ruler but nevertheless established a civilization that was one of the greatest in the world for more than two thousand years

 

Its never out right said, like much of the info in world of ice and fire. Like the Yi-tish empire, you have to do some calculating.

 

In this case, the kingdom of sarnor fell 100 years after the doom of Valyria which was 400 years ago. So Sarnor fell about 300 years ago, or around Aegon's Landing. They say that Sarnor ruled for 2000 years as a great civilization. Assuming they began around this time, it would put them at about 2300 years ago. And they were founded by Huzhor Amai, last son of the FIsher Queen's, Implying the Realm of the FIsher Queens ended around then. It's also stated else where that the Silver sea began drying up 2000 years ago, or thousands or years ago i believe in A World of Ice and Fire. Ill get back to you with a quote on that. I apologize, just a nightmare keepin all these notes in order always haha :)

 

​Double check and let me know what you think. If im right, it correlates with when i also believe the Modern Yi-tish empire begain (post Empire of the Dawn), Which may indicate when the great calamity happened across the world, Long Night ect. The stories at the night fort are no older than a couple thousand years either as i point out, other than the Nights King being listed as 6-8000 years ago, with nothinnnggggg happening again for thousands of years. As i have said, i think after the long night, the world went into a sort of Dark Ages where even there history became lost and distorted. 

[AlaskanSandman]

Sufficient  tales  survive  to  convince

most  maesters  of  the  past  existence  of

the  Silver  Sea,  though  because  of

diminishing rainfall over the centuries,

it  has  shrunk  so  severely  that  today

only  three  great  lakes  remain  where

once its waters glistened in the sun.

 

The Kingdom of Sarnor (so called, though it

boasted  twoscore  rival  kings)  was  amongst  the

known world’s great civilizations for more than

two thousand years, 

 

 

These are just two passages from AWOIAF The Grass lands of Essos section in beyond the free cities. 

 

Before the Long Night the main Empires seem to be The Realm of the Fisher Queens west of the bones, and the Empire of the Dawn East of the Bone Mountains, and the Original peoples of Asshai (which i tend to think was an underwater city thats been partially revealed due to the longer and longer summers drying up all the lands. Tho i could be wrong as other areas show flooding, but some as the Silver Sea and the Sea east of the Bones drying up. The oily black stone its made of and the fact of no streets makes me wonder tho). There were also other tribes listed in these times both near the Realm of the Fisher Queens and in Westeros with the First Men, being random tribes migrating or a fallen Empire as yet unlisted fleeing for refuge. Take your pick. There were definitely dragons in these times too and quite possibly Ice dragons (If you havnt read the Ice Dragon i recommend it, it may just be GRRM's Hobbit. Being that its a childs story that ties into the greater stories in a very important way. If thats true then multiple peoples had dragons as the main characters family has Dragons through the uncle, while fighting an invading force landed in the North and coming south with more Fire Dragons. Then an Ice Dragon shows up. Interestingly the description about winter and cold being tied to the coming of the Ice Dragon or vice versa is exactlyyy the same as whats said of the Others and the cold.

   Now after the Long Night, alllll these major Empires fell leaving room for new ones to rise (Valyria, Sarnor, Old Ghis, Yi-ti and the Rhoynar. Most these except Valyria have listed a single Hero figure as a founder/early key figure. Grazdan the Great, Huzhor Amai, Yin Tar, ect. These empires would rise and fall in the following 2 centuries leading to our current story. Or so i believe through all my notes and trying to look at the evidence before me and make sense of all the mixed stories. As any investigator or cop or ect can tell you, theres always truth in every lie and if something doesnt fit, trust your gut. :) 

[Free Northman Reborn]

The same World book that you quote above, also gives a date of at least 6000 years ago for the Long Night. So you can't cherrypick some dates and ignore others in order to try and shorten the historical timeline.

[Mithras]

AlaskanSandman,

 

I don’t think your interpretation of that quote is true. That quote does not necessarily mean that the Kingdom of Sarnor stopped being a great civilization for two thousand years just before they were defeated by the Dothraki. Every civilization has a peak. No civilization starts as a great civilization and remains so until they vanish. In fact, there is still a surviving Sarnori city.

 

My guess is that two thousand years refer to a phase starting soon after the Long Night and ending by the time Vayria grows powerful enough to wipe out the Ghiscari Empire. We know that the Sarnor participated in the Ghiscari Wars in both sides. The Sarnori fought on the Valyrian side in the first few wars but in the fourth Ghiscari War, rival Sarnori knigs fought on both sides. I think the Sarnori Empire was severely weakened after the Ghiscari Empire fell. They ceased to be a great civilization from that moment.

[AlaskanSandman]

The same World book that you quote above, also gives a date of at least 6000 years ago for the Long Night. So you can't cherrypick some dates and ignore others in order to try and shorten the historical timeline.

Three differnent times are given yes, and the most commonly excepted one (at least in westeros, cue Maesters who have already been accused of lying about history) is 6000 years ago for the Andal Invasion. Believing 6000 years ago while ignoring the other dates given is also "Cherry picking" to support your threory. Im not interested in whats commonly excepted tho. There would be no point to this forum if that was the case. Im here to question. In any investigation you have to "cherry pick" information to support your hypothesis. I believe i have already given and can give more evidence to back my theory. I feel you on what your saying, the history is shoddy at best and you have to be careful with what you believe. But since common perception believes the one, it leads me to question whats widely  excepted, it is Martin :)

 

   I def enjoy a challenge to my theory tho, im just hoping for a good strong argument/debate against it to make me question further :)

 

Forgot to mention that the scouring of Lorath is a pretty strong indication that at the least, the migrations didnt stop till about 1700 years ago. Whether people wanna believe they started 6000 years ago.

[AlaskanSandman]

AlaskanSandman,

 

I don’t think your interpretation of that quote is true. That quote does not necessarily mean that the Kingdom of Sarnor stopped being a great civilization for two thousand years just before they were defeated by the Dothraki. Every civilization has a peak. No civilization starts as a great civilization and remains so until they vanish. In fact, there is still a surviving Sarnori city.

 

My guess is that two thousand years refer to a phase starting soon after the Long Night and ending by the time Vayria grows powerful enough to wipe out the Ghiscari Empire. We know that the Sarnor participated in the Ghiscari Wars in both sides. The Sarnori fought on the Valyrian side in the first few wars but in the fourth Ghiscari War, rival Sarnori knigs fought on both sides. I think the Sarnori Empire was severely weakened after the Ghiscari Empire fell. They ceased to be a great civilization from that moment.

I get what your saying, tho its not my interpretation that's necessarily wrong. Im just saying that they began no less than 2300 years ago based on the information given. You are very correct in your assumption as it does state that the Sarnori fought along side Valyria against Old Ghis (and once when some for some reason switched sides). So to better elaborate my statement, the Sarnori have been around for about 2300, up to 6-7000 years ago. This i considered too. Before i try to make my opinion i try to look at everything around them. In this case, all info about there cities seem to indicate that they were in there peak when the Dothraki came along and wiped them out. Trust, ive chewed on this for a long time and def see the common belief.  I still have the problem tho that after the 5th Ghiscari war, nothing is documented as happening for thousanddsss of years. 

    Now here's my problem with this. Take England (which much of his world is based around, westerosi views of the world being similar to Englands), England in the last 2000 years have seen some interesting turn overs in dominion, beliefs, and understanding of history. After the collapse of the Roman Empire, Europe fell into a Dark Age and England largely forgot about the Romans. Attributing there Statues, structures and Bath houses to the ancient relics of an ancient Giant civilization. Even tho the Romans had collapsed no more than a couple hundred years ago. It took that lil of time for the common knowledge to be lost. It wasnt completely lost tho however. Rome still existed, and scrolls survived in England telling of them. Buttttt, the high priest, kings, and then later the Roman Catholic church hid and controlled common knowledge and reading.

    This is more or less what i believe is happening within the story. Alot of evidence points to the Andal invasion being more recent. Whether it went in a couple waves over time or not, it ended no more that 1700 years ago with the scouring our Lorath. My calculations on the Empire of Yi-ti also leads me to believe a 2000 year ago major event and their empire begining. Theres also the info about the Nights watch that leads me to think a 2000 year time frame. Their oldest cast is Castle Black. Now the oldest lord commander it list is The Nights King. It list two other names with no time frame, and then Osrik Stark at 700 years ago. Now if the watch is only 2000 years old, i can understand there only being two notably memorable commanders serving in that missing 1300 years. Two tho between them  that are supposed to encompass 7-8000 years seems unlikely tho. In 7-8000 years, only 3 whole people are remembered. That seems highllyyyyyy unlikely, especially if comparing to real world history. Now with all of that, plus the possible 2300 year mark for the Sarnori, it paints a steady picture.

 

   Forgot to mention that at one point its said a Lord Commander from one tower fights a lord Commander from another tower. That has two implications. Either one elected himself while the other was elected by his peers, or, each castle use to be manned by its own Lord Commander untill realizing the problems after said war between two. May explain while the Lord Commander count is so high.

[Mithras]

I still have the problem tho that after the 5th Ghiscari war, nothing is documented as happening for thousanddsss of years. 

 

After the Ghiscari Empire fell, Valyrians turned their eyes west. They started building their Free Cities and laying the foundations of westward expansion.

 

Meanwhile Andals were still migrating to Westeros.

 

There is nothing to document for the Rhoynish until the Valyrian conquest. They were peaceful people who minded their own business.

 

There are many events in the Andal era reported in Westeros.

 

In short, I don’t think there is a gap between the fifth Ghiscari War and the Rhoynish Conquest.

 

Now here's my problem with this. Take England ...

 

I don't think it is a good idea to take the real world history timeline as a template. Everything is bigger in Planetos. 

 

Whether it went in a couple waves over time or not, it ended no more that 1700 years ago with the scouring our Lorath.

 

I agree that Andals came in waves. But there is no report that the surviving subjects of Qarlon's Kingdom migrated to Westeros. On the contrary, the legend says that no Lorathi Andals survived the attack.

 

If there were any Andal survivors from Qarlon's Kingdom, they should be few in number. Some of them might be enslaved but one way or the other, they must be absorbed into Pentoshi society. These survivors cannot in any way be strong or numerous enough to turn Westeros upside down as the Andal Invasion took shape.

 

My calculations on the Empire of Yi-ti also leads me to believe a 2000 year ago major event and their empire begining.

 

Except Yandel seems to have a list of Yi Ti emperors and he does not have any difficulty in fitting those emperors and dynasties in a time frame of 5000-6000 years. Here is my thread about Yi Ti history. The idea of nothing happening between Ghiscari and Rhoynish Conquests was also addressed in that thread.

 

Theres also the info about the Nights watch that leads me to think a 2000 year time frame. Their oldest cast is Castle Black. Now the oldest lord commander it list is The Nights King. It list two other names with no time frame, and then Osrik Stark at 700 years ago. Now if the watch is only 2000 years old, i can understand there only being two notably memorable commanders serving in that missing 1300 years. Two tho between them  that are supposed to encompass 7-8000 years seems unlikely tho. In 7-8000 years, only 3 whole people are remembered. That seems highllyyyyyy unlikely, especially if comparing to real world history. Now with all of that, plus the possible 2300 year mark for the Sarnori, it paints a steady picture.

 

The Night’s King was never listed. His records were wiped out, remember?

 

. . . we say that you’re the nine hundred and ninety-eighth Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch, but the oldest list I’ve found shows six hundred seventy-four commanders, which suggests that it was written during . . .

“Long ago,” Jon broke in.

 

Sam was probably going to say “The Andal Invasion”. Even if we take average LC reign as 3 years, it is still more than 2000 years and two third of the list is missing. In fact, the list might not be missing because Sam did not have the time to check the entire archive of CB. Taking Sam's list as starting 5000 years ago or so and assuming that the NW was found 8000 years ago is a good guess which makes an average LC reign of 5-6 years. This way, the numbers of LC's make sense.

 

Forgot to mention that at one point its said a Lord Commander from one tower fights a lord Commander from another tower. That has two implications. Either one elected himself while the other was elected by his peers, or, each castle use to be manned by its own Lord Commander untill realizing the problems after said war between two. May explain while the Lord Commander count is so high.

 

Except this is against everything we know about the NW. The LC of the NW is the LC of Castle Black. And the Starks intervened quickly when the rival Lord Commanders made war.

[joluoto2]

The Andal migrations seem to have been a long process anyways, with more and more Andals over time crossing the Narrow Sea.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

The Night’s King was never listed. His records were wiped out, remember?

 

. . . we say that you’re the nine hundred and ninety-eighth Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch, but the oldest list I’ve found shows six hundred seventy-four commanders, which suggests that it was written during . . .

“Long ago,” Jon broke in.

 

Sam was probably going to say “The Andal Invasion”. Even if we take average LC reign as 3 years, it is still more than 2000 years and two third of the list is missing. In fact, the list might not be missing because Sam did not have the time to check the entire archive of CB. Taking Sam's list as starting 5000 years ago or so and assuming that the NW was found 8000 years ago is a good guess which makes an average LC reign of 5-6 years. This way, the numbers of LC's make sense.

 

 

I don't know why you assume the Andal invasion, he could be stating several periods. If we were to take the commonly given number of Lord Commanders and the commonly given length of time since the Long Night, approximate 674/998 as 2/3 then that list should be written ~2,600 years ago.

 

The list just serves to prove the point that the time between the Andal Invasion and the Long Night is unknowable, the list is likely just a compilation of runic records, many of which are likely hideously inaccurate and may have been misinterpreted severely by whoever it was that was writing the list, after all how is a Septon supposed to tell the 50 Lord Commanders all named Brandon Stark apart? Maybe different people were assumed to be the same person, maybe one person was assumed to be multiple people.

[AlaskanSandman]

 

After the Ghiscari Empire fell, Valyrians turned their eyes west. They started building their Free Cities and laying the foundations of westward expansion.

 

Meanwhile Andals were still migrating to Westeros.

 

There is nothing to document for the Rhoynish until the Valyrian conquest. They were peaceful people who minded their own business.

 

There are many events in the Andal era reported in Westeros.

 

In short, I don’t think there is a gap between the fifth Ghiscari War and the Rhoynish Conquest.

 

 

I don't think it is a good idea to take the real world history timeline as a template. Everything is bigger in Planetos. 

 

 

I agree that Andals came in waves. But there is no report that the surviving subjects of Qarlon's Kingdom migrated to Westeros. On the contrary, the legend says that no Lorathi Andals survived the attack.

 

If there were any Andal survivors from Qarlon's Kingdom, they should be few in number. Some of them might be enslaved but one way or the other, they must be absorbed into Pentoshi society. These survivors cannot in any way be strong or numerous enough to turn Westeros upside down as the Andal Invasion took shape.

 

 

Except Yandel seems to have a list of Yi Ti emperors and he does not have any difficulty in fitting those emperors and dynasties in a time frame of 5000-6000 years. Here is my thread about Yi Ti history. The idea of nothing happening between Ghiscari and Rhoynish Conquests was also addressed in that thread.

 

 

The Night’s King was never listed. His records were wiped out, remember?

 

. . . we say that you’re the nine hundred and ninety-eighth Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch, but the oldest list I’ve found shows six hundred seventy-four commanders, which suggests that it was written during . . .

“Long ago,” Jon broke in.

 

Sam was probably going to say “The Andal Invasion”. Even if we take average LC reign as 3 years, it is still more than 2000 years and two third of the list is missing. In fact, the list might not be missing because Sam did not have the time to check the entire archive of CB. Taking Sam's list as starting 5000 years ago or so and assuming that the NW was found 8000 years ago is a good guess which makes an average LC reign of 5-6 years. This way, the numbers of LC's make sense.

 

 

 

Except this is against everything we know about the NW. The LC of the NW is the LC of Castle Black. And the Starks intervened quickly when the rival Lord Commanders made war.

Yes the Valyrians turn there eyes west after destroying Old Ghis, but you state on your other post, the only source given for the 5th war being 5000 years ago is from Dany. Not reliable really. The current inhabitants of Ghis are not the true Ghiscari people of old who were destroyed. Plus it was a Valyrian expansion which implies Valyria took those lands, which would mean that its new people only got the lands after Valyria fell and likely dont know the true histories them selves and are flubbing what they do know to sound more ancient and grand. The Scouring of Lorath is also a good reference point to when Valyria turned east as when they scoured Lorath, they had simply flown up with 100 dragons (by passing the Rhoynar all together atm) and burned it. Its not untill some time later ( i think a couple hundred years but dont have any of my notes in front of me atm) that the Valyrians set up there and set up an Alter or something. Some couple hundred years after theyre worship is ousted. Lorath mean while was possibly Ibbish in origin, then later Andal or something. (Gottaaaa get my notes in order so i can post this all succinctly ). Either way, point is is that if you look at the free cities and the info about them, theres nothing to indicate Valyrian expansion into that area untill at least 2000 years ago, no more. Tho im sure they have passed through there before as there is a couple mentioned reports of Valyria and or Asshai coming to Westeros. Plus theres a section saying that the Valyrians came to westeros due to a prophecy that the doom of man would fall in the west (suggesting the long night). The Targaryens came because of Daenys dream of the doom of Valyria, sounds like two seperate events. So im still puzzling that out, but even if its true it doesnt affect what ive said about Valyria and the free cities no more than 2000 years ago as the Valyrians also never set up colonies in westeros. So in my opinion its still all possible.

 

 And yes a lil real world application can be ok when used logically. Yes i know things are bigger in fantasty, but the premise for how long of time it takes for a civilization to forget its own history is quiet applicable i think. just like knowing how many popes have sat in rome in 2000 years can be helpful.

 

 Qarlons people may have been completely wiped out but the surrounding Andal populations wouldnt have been, and they could have been part of that last wave of Andals. The first obviously being during the Age of Heros, which i believe isnt as long ago as most believe. Serwyn of the Mirror shield and Symean star eyes being a couple examples of andals and knight hood in the age of heros. 

 

  Ive already touched upon the Yi-ti part in your other thread. Theres just no way the math supports there empire being that old. 

 

The Nights King was wiped from history so they say, yet were still talking about him... ;) word got out or something, and the word is that he was 13th lord commander and was shortly after the long night. All i can go off of there and i assume that info is right, just not the commonly excepted date for the Long night.

 

 Yes Sam may have been about to say that it was Written during the Andal Invasion but heres the thing, that further proves my point. Jons 998th, that one listed is 667th. Leaves 331 as the difference. Now as i have said, i think the Main Andal invasion was 2000 years ago. Now 2000 divided by the difference of 331 comes to an average rule of 6 years for each L.C., where as you said with a rule of three would pass 2000 years. no. If that list was made during the Andal invasion at 2000 years ago and the current L.C. in charge was the 667th, that means it all makes sense with the proper rule of 6 years that you mention. 

 

 The Lord Commanders official position is at Castle Black now yes, but thats only been for the last 200 years or so. As it was at the Nightfort for most their history till queen Alysanne moved them to DeepLake. When Deep Lake got dropped for Castle Black who knows. The Nightsfort is listed as the oldest castle but Castle black seems almost as old.

 

 

 I just want to add for anyone reading this to consider. In our real world, all modern and hip and up to date with information and the cataloging of our history. How many of you can list off historical figures for the last 2000 years? now 3000? now 4000? If any of you can pull from memory more than a handful that are not biblical for 3-4000 years, either props or bullshit lol there really isnt that many. Most biblical stuff and stuff to do with greek gods was within the last 3-4000 years (according to non biblical scholars) Most you could think of would be from the last 2500 years. And thats with the modern information age. So consider that on the views the characters with in the books has. Martin is a very smart fellow with a wide knowledge and love of history, considering that he is writing so much of his imaginary world off of the real one to make his gritty, credible and realistic, its safe for you to probably make real world parallels. Long as your not looking for parallels like the war of the roses to tell you who will win. Yes the Starks and Lannisters sound like Yorks and Lancasters, and Martin has obviously used some influences in his work. I wouldnt look to that kinda stuff for any answers. 

  Hope this has sparked ideas, or brought on some more good debating the histories for answers. :D

[Mithras]

 

I don't know why you assume the Andal invasion, he could be stating several periods. If we were to take the commonly given number of Lord Commanders and the commonly given length of time since the Long Night, approximate 674/998 as 2/3 then that list should be written ~2,600 years ago.

 

The list just serves to prove the point that the time between the Andal Invasion and the Long Night is unknowable, the list is likely just a compilation of runic records, many of which are likely hideously inaccurate and may have been misinterpreted severely by whoever it was that was writing the list, after all how is a Septon supposed to tell the 50 Lord Commanders all named Brandon Stark apart? Maybe different people were assumed to be the same person, maybe one person was assumed to be multiple people.

 

According to the canon timeline, 

 

Less than two-third of the time since the Long Night does not have Andals and the writing they brought.

 

Less than two-third of the early LC's which are from the era with the runes of the First Men only are missing.

 

Seems like good fit.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

 

According to the canon timeline, 

 

Less than two-third of the time since the Long Night does not have Andals and the writing they brought.

 

Less than two-third of the early LC's which are from the era with the runes of the First Men only are missing.

 

Seems like good fit.

Which canon though?

 

6,000 years, 4,000 years, 2,000 years, all these dates for the Andal Invasion are canon. They are all explicitly mentioned by knowledgable Westerosi. And they are mutually exclusive.

[Mithras]

Which canon though?

 

6,000 years, 4,000 years, 2,000 years, all these dates for the Andal Invasion are canon. They are all explicitly mentioned by knowledgable Westerosi. And they are mutually exclusive.

 

There is only one canon and it gives 8000 years for the Long Night and 6000 years for the start of the Andal invasions.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

 

There is only one canon and it gives 8000 years for the Long Night and 6000 years for the start of the Andal invasions.

So, Lazy Leo Tyrell's statement is not canon? Or Rodrik "the Reader" Harlaw's? Or Samwell Tarly's? Or Godric Borrell's?

 

Where does this "canon" originate from anyway?

[Lord Varys]

BBE,

 

just trust Mithras. He seems to know everything... ;-)

 

On topic: I doubt we'll ever get a real chronology unless Bran is going to count the days that pass when he looks back into the past, or if it is an important plot point how much time has passed. We don't actually need a time stamp on the vision even if we see events leading up to and during the Long Night.

[Mithras]

Where does this "canon" originate from anyway?

 

His smile was gentle. "You listen to too many of Old Nan's stories. The Others are as dead as the children of the forest, gone eight thousand years. Maester Luwin will tell you they never lived at all. No living man has ever seen one."

 

"No doubt I will hear what your brother says soon enough," Robert said. "The Wall has stood for what, eight thousand years? It can keep a few days more. I have more pressing concerns. These are difficult times. I need good men about me. Men like Jon Arryn. He served as Lord of the Eyrie, as Warden of the East, as the Hand of the King. He will not be easy to replace."

 

Jon could have told him. He knew, they all knew, yet no man of them would say the words. The Others are only a story, a tale to make children shiver. If they ever lived at all, they are gone eight thousand years. Even the thought made him feel foolish; he was a man grown now, a black brother of the Night's Watch, not the boy who'd once sat at Old Nan's feet with Bran and Robb and Arya.

 

"Spare me your but's, boy," Lord Mormont interrupted. "I would not be sitting here were it not for you and that beast of yours. You fought bravely … and more to the point, you thought quickly. Fire! Yes, damn it. We ought to have known. We ought to have remembered. The Long Night has come before. Oh, eight thousand years is a good while, to be sure … yet if the Night's Watch does not remember, who will?"

 

All from AGoT. So, at least the Long Night and the Wall are thought to be eight thousand years old by a large variety of characters.

 

Alyssa Arryn had seen her husband, her brothers, and all her children slain, and yet in life she had never shed a tear. So in death, the gods had decreed that she would know no rest until her weeping watered the black earth of the Vale, where the men she had loved were buried. Alyssa had been dead six thousand years now, and still no drop of the torrent had ever reached the valley floor far below. Catelyn wondered how large a waterfall her own tears would make when she died. "Tell me the rest of it," she said.

 

Still from AGoT. I don’t know any First Man with the Arryn surname, which means the Arryns should have been there for at least six thousand years.

 

So, Lazy Leo Tyrell's statement is not canon? Or Rodrik "the Reader" Harlaw's? Or Samwell Tarly's? Or Godric Borrell's?

 

No, because we are given the canon dates long before any of those characters appeared.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

So any book after the very first is utterly unimportant? All lies? Robb Stark is alive and kicking Lannister butt?

[Bael's Bastard]

Don't forget TWOIAF (the book whose forum we are discussing this in).

"How the Long Night came to an end is a matter of legend, as all such matters of the distant past have become. In the North, they tell of a last hero who sought out the intercession of the children of the forest, his companions abandoning him or dying one by one as they faced ravenous giants, cold servants, and the Others themselves. Alone he finally reached the children, despite the efforts of the white walkers, and all the tales agree this was a turning point. Thanks to the children, the first men of the Night's Watch banded together and were able to fightand winthe Battle for the Dawn: the last battle that broke the endless winter and sent the Others fleeing to the icy north. Now, six thousand years later (or eight thousand as True History puts forward), the Wall made to defend the realms of men is still manned by the sworn brothers of the Night's Watch, and neither the Others nor the children have been seen in many centuries."

"How true is the tale? Alyssa Arryn did live, of that we may be reasonably sure, but it is unlikely that she lived six thousand years ago. True History suggests four thousand years whilst Denestan halves that number in Questions."

[Bael's Bastard]

EVERYTHING in ASOIAF, Dunk and Egg, and TWOIAF is canon. All of the information contained in it is the canon. Everything that will turn out to be right, wrong, or otherwise is part of our canon. We don't know which is most accurate in some cases, such as dating of the Long Knight or Andal invasion, but all of the opinions (correct or incorrect) exist within the canon. If someone is arguing that only an 8,000 year old Long Night is "the canon," you probably shouldn't waste your time arguing with them.