Where does the disbelief in Aegon stream from?

[Lord Wraith]

It's called metaphoric foreshadowing. Even in the text the lord chops the sign into pieces because it explicitly reminds him of the Blackfyre rebellion.

Aegon is a Blackfyre, that's why there's so much disbelief - it's not complicated.

Textual evidence supports:

Golden Company is associated with Blackfyre.

Jon Connington is associated with Blackfyre.

Young Griff aka (f)Aegon is associated with both the Golden Company and Jon Connington. This combined with the foreshadowing from the sign being "red with rust" doesn't leave a lot of ambiguity. Also, the show completely decided to leave his character out ... also pretty telling.

JonCon was one of Rhaegar's best friends. He was exiled from Westeros and joined up with the Golden Company. What else associates him with the Blackfyres?

[Alysanne Donnelly]

If Aegon is the real Aegon, it doesn't make sense to introduce him so late in the series and without a POV. Why bother with Dany and her POV and giving her dragons when the crown prince Aegon lives? He should be a major player, but the way he is being framed seems to suggest that he isn't.

[Lord Wraith]

If Aegon is the real Aegon, it doesn't make sense to introduce him so late in the series and without a POV. Why bother with Dany and her POV and giving her dragons when the crown prince Aegon lives? He should be a major player, but the way he is being framed seems to suggest that he isn't.

Why would Martin subvert anyone's expectations? I mean that has never happened before.

[Isobel Harper]

If Aegon is the real Aegon, it doesn't make sense to introduce him so late in the series and without a POV. Why bother with Dany and her POV and giving her dragons when the crown prince Aegon lives? He should be a major player, but the way he is being framed seems to suggest that he isn't.

A late introduction doesn't give much credence to the legitimacy of his claim either way. Also, if Aegon should live for the rest of the series, I fail to see why Daenerys' arch is now unimportant. If anything, I think it will make her POV that much more interesting. I can't wait to see her response to Aegon, whatever that may be.

Aegon was also not introduce that late into the series. Think of each book in the series as a volume, except for AFFC and ADwD; since the latter two run concurrently, they are basically the same volume. So we will have 7 books and 6 volumes. The Aegon reveal occurred in volume 4 of 6 - just over halfway. Not too late, in my opinion.

[The Mother of The Others]

People don't like Aegon because he wasn't here for the rehearsal dinner when we got to meet and greet the other characters and choose favorites, then this Aegon ninny shows up as if there's still any slots available in our hearts. Who does he think he is.

I like him.

[Dulcinea]

I'm gonna throw in the meta-argument (spoiler alert?) and say that

1) doesn't really seem to fit with the whole epic cycle to introduce what would presumably be a completely central character more than halfway through the series. Think about LotR - Gandalf really isn't super-primary in the first book (once Frodo leaves the Shire, he doesn't re-appear until Rivendell), but we still have the whole scene with him at the beginning, because epics introduce their key players early on. On the same token...

2) (f)Aegon isn't in the TV series. This is predicated on the assumption that the series is intended to end at the same place where the books are, which I'm comfortable making. Kinda like Lady Stoneheart; I'm fairly certain, in the books, she's having Freys killed in Winterfell right now, but doesn't exist in the series, because that whole sub-plot isn't going to affect the endgame. Likewise, the lack of Aegon in the show suggests to me he isn't part of the endgame, which you would think he would be if he was really "the blood of the dragon" and all.

3) I've gone back and forth on a couple of forums on this, but it seems to at least some of us that Varys & Illyrio's "plan" involves too many variables and assumptions for them to have spent all that energy trying to put Viserys/Dany on the throne when they really wanted it for Aegon.

As a lawyer, I can appreciate the "burden of proof" argument, but to be fair, I don't think Westerosi have birth certificates. I know there's the family books that allowed Ned to figure out the whole Joffrey's father thing, but even if he is wielding Blackfyre, or has Rhaegar's Harp, or something else, I would just as easily assume it's been supplied by V&I to sustain the illusion. Which is the ultimate point, I think - it seems more logical to assume that Varys & Illyrio are up to something that works to their benefit (be they secret Blackfyres or no) rather than just incredibly, incredibly strong Targaryen loyalists who concocted a whole crazy, multi-pronged plan for the good of the "realm" of whatever.

[Dulcinea]

Particularly that first point. I think its really annoying to introduce such a big character this late in the game. I agree with everything stated in this post

[Ser Hightower]

JonCon was one of Rhaegar's best friends. He was exiled from Westeros and joined up with the Golden Company. What else associates him with the Blackfyres?

1. JonCon was more obsessed with Rhaegar more than it being such a mutual relationship. Rhaegar's best friends are who he left at the TOJ - hence why it's so evident that R + L probably = J.

2.

He floated in heat, in memory. "After dancing griffins lost the Battle of the Bells, Aerys exiled him." Why am I telling this absurd ugly child? "He had finally realized that Robert was no mere outlaw lord to be crushed at whim, but the greatest threat House Targaryen had faced since Daemon Blackfyre. The king reminded Lewyn Martell gracelessly that he held Elia and sent him to take command of the ten thousand Dornishmen coming up the kingsroad. Jon Darry and Barristan Selmy rode to Stoney Sept to rally what they could of griffin's men, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father. But no raven returned from Casterly Rock, and that made the king even more afraid. He saw traitors everywhere, and Varys was always there to point out any he might have missed. So His Grace commanded his alchemists to place caches of wildfire all over King's Landing. Beneath Baelor's Sept and the hovels of Flea Bottom, under stables and storehouses, at all seven gates, even in the cellars of the Red Keep itself."

"Very interestingly here, we read Daemon Blackfyre mentioned in passing when Jaime told us about the griffin's part in Robert's Rebellion. From Arya V, Storm 29, we knew that dancing griffin was Jon Connington." - LostMel

[Lord Wraith]

1. JonCon was more obsessed with Rhaegar more than it being such a mutual relationship. Rhaegar's best friends are who he left at the TOJ - hence why it's so evident that R + L probably = J.

2.

"Very interestingly here, we read Daemon Blackfyre mentioned in passing when Jaime told us about the griffin's part in Robert's Rebellion. From Arya V, Storm 29, we knew that dancing griffin was Jon Connington." - LostMel

JonCon was exiled before the TOJ and was hand of the king at the time anyway. One offhand reference to Daemon Blackfyre doesn't make him a Blackfyre supporter. So is there any proof?

[TheHoundJR]

He got dem rubies at his throat. Glamorous IMO.

[Visenya Stark]

Actually show Robb did just before the red wedding.

No, he didn't.

People can look like anything with the right magic. If Fake Aegon is the child of Ned and Ashara, he should look like a Stark. If Jon is the child of Rheagar and Elia then he should look like a Targarean.

There is no set rule that says children can ONLY look like their fathers. Otherwise, Rhaegar's daughter Rhaenys would have looked like him and ALL of Ned's children with Catelyn would have looked like Ned.

It serves no purpose to have Jon and Aegon be glamoured throughout the story only to have them reveal their "true appearance" later on. There's also the question of WHY the characters would be glamoured in the first place. Why would Ned give away his son and raise Rhaegar & Elia's son?

[Nic G]

I think that aegon being a blackfyre is a disgusting insult to the the true king Daemon and his half brother bittersteel, none of the blackfyres have relied on backstabbing or sabatoge(that is a trait of bloodraven) I think argon isn't a blackfyre because it would go against their core values of honor and loyalty

[Lady Blizzardborn]

<snip

“And this lie may spare us. Else you and I must leave the Eyrie by the same door Lysa used.” Petyr picked up his quill again. “We shall serve him lies and Arbor gold, and he’ll drink them down and ask for more, I promise you.” (Sansa, AFFC)

Are you sure that's the quote Fire Eater meant? We were talking about Aegon, not Petyr.

There's a lot of things in the Pisswater Prince story that would require a lot of foresight to make the baby switch plausible. First finding a baby that looked like a targ isn't going to be easy in Westeros. Second, how would they know that he'd be killed like that? Only way for the baby switch story to really hold up is if they thought the Wildfire was going to make him unrecognizable. It seems easier to pass off someone else as Aegon than to rely on a crazy man's plot or Gregor Clegane.

Centuries of Targaryen men living in King's Landing and you think it will be difficult to find one baby that looks Valyrian? Then there were the Celtigars and Velaryons too. The Targs were not the only Valyrians in Westeros, just the only ones with dragons.

They don't have to know he'll be killed at all. The original intent of the switch would be to get Aegon safely out of reach before they realized the baby in the nursery wasn't him. The stunt baby does not have to die for that to work.

If they got a kid with silver hair and purple eyes that would be enough for people who weren't familiar with Prince Aegon. Neither Tywin nor his henchman would be experts in babies, let alone in the royal prince. They wouldn't realize they had a phony until someone pointed it out to them.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

I just want to point out that the fact that the Blackfyre back story is told makes no difference to whether Aegon is real or fake. The Blackfyre back story would have to be told either way, since people in the story are going to be claiming Aegon is a Blackfyre. If GRRM had people claiming that Aegon must be a Blackfyre and not told the story, then readers would be going, "who the fuck are the Blackfyres?" Now THAT would be bad writing. I cannot take anyone seriously who doesn't concede this point.

Excellent point!

But that dragon is not real, it is a puppet made of cloth.

<snip

This is symbolism in a trance caused by drugs. It can go either way. Mummer's dragon = dragon controlled by Varys. Fake = not a dragon, which should mean not a Blackfyre either quite frankly.

[Ser Joe the Unknighted]

The people who insist he is real would either A. have no idea if he really is, Jon Con, Haldon, Duck, or B. are proven liars or hiding who they really are, Septa Lemore, Varys, and Illyrio. Varys and Illyrio are liars, schemers, and deceivers and Aegon is a part of their master plan.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

If Aegon is the real Aegon, it doesn't make sense to introduce him so late in the series and without a POV. Why bother with Dany and her POV and giving her dragons when the crown prince Aegon lives? He should be a major player, but the way he is being framed seems to suggest that he isn't.

Yes, it does make sense. It's for drama, and for the character development of the POV characters we do have. Aegon being real doesn't mean he is going to save anyone, or make a huge difference to the lives of the smallfolk, or survive the series.

JonCon not being able to save Rhaegar's son could be the last straw for him as a character, and we could get a first-hand glimpse of a major breakdown.

Picture this: Dany gets to Westeros, believes he's a fake, kills him, learns he was actually her nephew. Cue violins and tears. Then maybe when another nephew shows up she'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Aegon can be very, very useful, without being a fake or a POV.

The people who insist he is real would either A. have no idea if he really is, Jon Con, Haldon, Duck, or B. are proven liars or hiding who they really are, Septa Lemore, Varys, and Illyrio. Varys and Illyrio are liars, schemers, and deceivers and Aegon is a part of their master plan.

Post one outright lie Varys has told.

Actually if Aegon looks like Rhaegar then JonCon WOULD know. Either the kid looks like RhaeRhae or he doesn't. And this extends to looking like Aerys, Rhaella, or even Jaehaerys II and his queen as well. These are people JonCon could identify based on his connection to the royal family. If Aegon takes after ANY of them, JonCon will know.

[Ser Joe the Unknighted]

Well as to the look, the books say again and again how Valyrian blood is strong in Lys and Volantis and I am a firm believer in the Aegon Blackfyre Theory. I think Aegon is the son of Illyrio and Viserra Blackfyre and Illyrio has famously yellow hair and Viserra was a Lyseni with silver hair. Not to mention that Jon Connington desperately wants Aegon to be real. People see what they want to see and Jon Con really wants Aegon to be the son of Rhaegar so that he can make up for his previous failure. Connington didn't see Aegon for several years, from being a infant to a young boy after Connington spent a few years blowing around Essos and serving with the Golden Company.

As to Varys' lies. I'm sure one can find an example of an outright lie, but Varys constantly evades the whole truth, or tells selective truths, or manipulates when and what details he tells to make it seem like something it's not or make a big thing seem small or a small thing seem big. Even if I found out that Varys never tells an outright lie I would never trust anything he says. He is a master manipulator. He knows full well when he tells the council of reports of a 3 headed dragon being born in the east that it is Daenerys but he throws it in off-handedly as an aside in a cryptic detail to hide it. I don't believe Varys when he says that Aegon is the real Aegon. I think Varys is using the situation to install a Blackfyre on the throne and is taking advantage of the manner in which Aegon was murdered to pass off his pretender as Aegon. And he will probably have Blackfyre (the sword) to demonstrate his kinglyness and status as a "true" Targaryen, ironically.