Where does the disbelief in Aegon stream from?

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

Because it mirrors a real life fake Prince story.

[StarkofWinterfell]

A mummer's dragon is still a dragon and a Blackfyre is still a dragon too, but a black one instead of red.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

That guy you mentioned is also a clue for Aegon.

Varys speaks in half and partial truths, true, but that just means he's still as untrustworthy. Illyrio not a proven liar, so Illyrio's claim to Viserys that in secret people were sewing dragon banners and holding toasts in his honor awaiting his return is true?

Except Elia was found clutching the infant, meaning she believed it was Aegon. Varys couldn't have pulled the switch without her knowing, and Elia would have recognized if the child wasn't hers. How many babies in Flea Bottom have Valyrian features? During the Sack, she wouldn't have been with some strange child, but with her daughter, Rhaenys.

That guy I mentioned? You mean Lambert Simnel? As I said, the Targs ALREADY HAD ONE of him. So no, he's not. Perkin Warbeck maybe though.

Just because we haven't seen anyone sewing dragon banners and waiting for Viserys to sashay into Westeros doesn't mean it wasn't going on before he died. We only get points of view from a handful of the millions of people in Westeros. Illyrio actually may have been telling the truth.

Not that nonsense again. Elia would have had to act like it was her baby to ensure the safety of the real Aegon. A mother's instinct (in fact a HUMAN instinct) is to protect innocent children. She would have been holding the baby regardless. OF COURSE she knew! Rhaenys WAS with her mother but ran and hid in her father's rooms. There likely wasn't time to go after her.

How many kids in Flea Bottom with Valyrian looks? Almost 300 years of Targaryen kings and princes in the city, and you don't think any of them availed themselves of willing local girls? Aegon IV alone probably had a dozen bastards in King's Landing, hell he probably had a dozen just among the ladies at his court!

[White Ravens]

I got the idea of Aegon being fake from reading the books. Late introduction in the story as a surprisingly alive character whom it was established died years ago? Check. Support network of mysterious characters with nebulous pasts (for the most part)? Check. Entire survival, rescue, upbringing and support arranged by one of the least trustworthy characters in all of Westeros? Check. Any solid evidence that Young Griff is Aegon VI and not just a politically contrived identity? Not enough.

[Winterfell is Burning]

I'd ask the other question: where does the belief Aegon is real comes from? Just because Varys said so? And obviously a spy master would never lie or tell a half-truth, surely...

[Syphon the Sanitator]

I just want to throw out there that mummer's dragon might not be what you think it is.

People think that the mummer's dragon is a fake. But it could just as easily be a real dragon who is simply owned by a mummer. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people stumbled into that little pitfall.

[Ygrain]

I just want to throw out there that mummer's dragon might not be what you think it is.

People think that the mummer's dragon is a fake. But it could just as easily be a real dragon who is simply owned by a mummer. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people stumbled into that little pitfall.

You haven't read upthread, have you :-)

"Mummer's dragon" is a label that Dany later uses for what she saw in the HotU vision - a cloth dragon on poles. A fake, a puppet.

[Cashless Society]

I'd ask the other question: where does the belief Aegon is real comes from? Just because Varys said so? And obviously a spy master would never lie or tell a half-truth, surely...

V&I were able to deceive JonCon, so the theory is at least somewhat plausible.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

You haven't read upthread, have you :-)

"Mummer's dragon" is a label that Dany later uses for what she saw in the HotU vision - a cloth dragon on poles. A fake, a puppet.

You can be a puppet without being a fake.

I'd ask the other question: where does the belief Aegon is real comes from? Just because Varys said so? And obviously a spy master would never lie or tell a half-truth, surely...

The plant in the FIRST BOOK that indicates the baby corpse could be an imposter might have something to do with it.

Name one time Varys has lied. I dare you. Give me some half-truths too while you're at it (and Tyrion's trial doesn't count). He tends to speak in riddles because he knows damn well that there are spies everywhere and not all of them are his. He can't spell everything out for the analysis-impaired.

For the record, I haven't decided that Aegon is real. I'm 51% to 49% leaning toward real for drama value.

[Ygrain]

You can be a puppet without being a fake.

I meant puppet in the literal sense: a model of something, not the real deal.

[Damon_Tor]

My true wondering is why is there a disbelief in Aegon?

Mostly because it would be a very unusual move to introduce a character that important so late in a story. Anything introduced in Act II is, by definition, an obstacle to be overcome, but will no longer be relevant in act III. All elements of the main conflict are introduced in Act I, and dealt with in Act III. So if Aegon IS the legitimate king of the seven kingdoms, then his introduction would mean that by book 5 we are still in Act I. In a seven-book series that is EXTREMELY implausible. Of course there's no law that says that Act I cannot take up 70% of the story, but there's a reason storytellers generally don't do this, and GRRM generally appears to be competent enough not to make this mistake.

There's also the fact that the producers of the HBO program felt he wasn't worth introducing. That's a big damn clue that he's not going to be very important.

[The Answer]

Who could possibly prove the truth of his identity? Is it just Varys & Illyrio?

[Nyrhex]

There's also the fact that the producers of the HBO program felt he wasn't worth introducing. That's a big damn clue that he's not going to be very important.

Just wanted to mention that not winning, or some version of Aegon losing and ending up as a wasted arc, does not actually have to say that he is not who he is said to be. As readers we know that Stannis is indeed Robert's true heir. Both plenty of fans of Jon/Dany/Tyrion/Hodor in the books and the show producers consider him nothing more than filler all the same.

[robb stark of the north]

Well i really would like Aegon to be a true heir to the Iron Throne and son of Rhaegar.

But unfortunately there are a lot of clues that hint he is a Blackfyre or a Brightflame.

1.''Some contracts are written in blood''.by Varys in a DwD.It hints that the GC supports Aegon as it has supported all of the Blackfyre pretenders.

2.Varys never said Aegon is Rhaegar's son is the end of aDwD.

3.Serra had Valyrian features.

4.Dany has a vision in the House of the Undying.She sees crowds of smallfolk cheering up for a banner of a mummer showing a dragon.This hints the existence of a fake Targaryen.

[Anath]

Since I first read about the baby with the smashed head, I've been waiting for an Aegon or "Aegon" to make an appearance. I still haven't desided if he's real or false. I am not particilarly trusting of Varys and Illyrio but contracts that are written in blood might simply mean that Aegon was both a Blackfyre or Brightflame and a Targaryen. We don't even know the ancestors of the current Martells, let alone the one of Elia's father. In fact, if he had some B or B blood, Varys' plans might have included Aerys being set up for a fight against Rhaegar, with Rhaegar winning. I am not betting on King Rhaegar surviving long after his victory in this scenario. Which, of course, leaves the matter of Elia's participation or non-participation. From the next to nothing we know about her, she doesn't look like a woman who'd kill her lord husband over bones 100 years old and the chance to take a more active part in her son's reign but who knows.

As to the cloth dragon, it might simply mean a fake dragon. Not a fake Targaryen. As Dany says, Viserys was no dragon but he was a Targaryen to the boot, up to the family madness. Aegon might very well turn to be the real Aegon but not a dragon. Besides, I am not sure that this vision wasn't just one of the things that never happened. People waiting for their dragon king was one of the things Viserys was convinced in and he wasn't a real dragon but a puppet in the hands of... well, everyone. Still, I lean towards the fake dragon being Aegon, one way or another.

[Balerion's Whiskers]

It appears to me that Varys seized the opportunity when the real Aegon was smashed beyond recognition. When I first read the scene (years ago, with the children laid at Robert's feet)...I knew that an 'Aegon' would show back up. That much was obvious.

I believe that Varys put his Blackfyre plan into motion then...The real prince died, that's why Elia was so desperate to protect him...he was her son. When Varys saw that the child's head was smashed, it was an 'Ah-Ha' moment for him and I think he knew just where he could come up with a doppelganger. And I do think that he has Blackfyre connections...if not blood, that he called upon to help with this last Blackfyre rebellion by subterfuge.

[Visenya Stark]

Not to mention the whole "Some contracts are writ in ink..others in blood" in response to why the Golden Company is supporting a Targ.And the most obvious "black or red a dragon is a dragon"

And how they bring up specifically that the blackfyre Male line ended.

There's also the story about the black dragon washing down the river and turning red.

[kimim]

A mummer's dragon is still a dragon and a Blackfyre is still a dragon too, but a black one instead of red.

Not if it's a cloth dragon, the way it is in HotU. I agree that a Blackfyre is a real dragon. imo Aegon is simply fake, not a Blackfyre, not a Targ. Introducing Aegon this late is bad enough, but if he's a Blackfyre, and if all that has to be rehashed with only two volumes left, ouch.

So he's either real, and dies too quickly to make a difference, or he's fake (not BF) and, again, dies too quickly to make a difference. The most important thing about his story could be uniting the Tyrells and the Martells on his side, against the Lannisters, and/or JonCon's greyscale changing into the grey plague, affecting all Westeros.

lol something like that.

[Anath]

If he is real which I doubt, I cannot see his arch in any other way but the subversion of the theme of the prince who was prophecized. All those expectations for naught. It would be very typical of GRRM's sense of humour.

I cannot see him actually sitting the IT for more than a book - if he lasts this long.

[Visenya Stark]

There are plenty of hints in book 1 that Jon is not necessarily Ned's son. Fake Aegon does not turn up until book 5 and Tyrion, the shrewdest POV character in the books thinks he might be fake.

Any argument based on R+L=J is nonsense because it isn't the only or even the best theory of Jon's parentage. Any theory that leaves Jon a bastard is pointless in book terms. Show Jon is currently the Stark heir and legitimized by his brother Robb. That makes him king in the North if he leaves the watch.

Show!Robb never legitimized Jon. It's implied that Book!Robb did. Show!Jon can't be the Stark heir, but Book!Jon can.

One possibility is that fake Aegon is actually the son of Ned and Ashara Dayne and that Jon is the son of Rheagar and Elia. If so, fake Aegon's looks would suddenly change when Jon becomes AAR. But that isn't the only possibility.

Rhaegar looks like a Targaryen. Elia looks like a Martell. Their child cannot look like a Stark. Jon looks like a Stark. Also, Jon and Aegon aren't mutually dependent on each other. Jon becoming Azor Ahai wouldn't be some catalyst for Aegon to change his appearance.

Not that nonsense again. Elia would have had to act like it was her baby to ensure the safety of the real Aegon. A mother's instinct (in fact a HUMAN instinct) is to protect innocent children. She would have been holding the baby regardless. OF COURSE she knew! Rhaenys WAS with her mother but ran and hid in her father's rooms. There likely wasn't time to go after her.

Where does it say that Rhaenys was with Elia?