R+L=J v. 148

[Crimsonsmile]

And actually. The worst case of incest in the series belongs to none other than a very Northern character. So there is already a third.

Who was the third?

Robert named the Lady Lyanna. Or how was this hint meant? Lyanna was not a princess being escorted to Dorne. Laenor Velaryon did not become a Prince upon his marriage to Princess Rhaenyra, nor did Laena become a princess upon her marriage to Prince Daemon. So perhaps the Princess going to Dorne is not such a good parallel, especially because Myrcella went to her betrothed, whereas Lyanna wouldn't have been going to her betrothed (Robert lived in the Stormlands, and was in the Vale at the start of the war, after all).

Or did I misunderstand the point of the Lady Lyanna?

In addition, Lyanna had gone missing some time before that.. Though we don't know exactly (or roughly) when.

Lyanna went missing. We know where Brandon was.. In between Winterfell and Riverrun, on his way to Riverrun for his wedding. We know where Lyanna was.. ten leagues from Harrenhal. They were not close to each other, despite the fact that they might have been going to the same location.

After the Battle of the Bells :) Catelyn clearly remembers that Jon Arryn married Lysa after losing his last heir, who died at the Battle of the Bells. As Catelyn and Lysa married in the same ceremony, Cat married Ned after the Battle of the Bells as well ;)

A quick draw-up

Lyanna disappeared, Brandon learned the news, Brandon travelled to KL, Rickard was summoned and travelled to KL, Rickard arrived in KL, and both Rickard and Brandon were executed an unknown amount of time later. After that, Aerys send summons to the Vale, and the war officially began. That war lasted "close to a year'', and ended at the Sack. After the Sack, Ned would travel to SE, lift the siege, which also lasted 'close to a year', and travelled to ToJ, where Lyanna was found dying.

The Siege of SE began later than the war, naturally. When the war began, Robert was in the Vale, where he fought in Gulltown. After these battles were won, he travelled to SE, where he called his banners, marched to Summerhal, fought the three battles in a day, marched back to SE, remained there for an unknown amount of time, marched to Ashford, and was defeated. From Ashford, the Tyrell army would have travelled to SE (not before). Only then could the Siege of SE begin.

During the Sack, Ned arrived in KL. We know Robert arrived later, but not too much later.. I'd guess it was only a matter of days, but that is a guess on my part. The bodies of Rhaenys, Elia and "Aegon" were still bloody from their murders - no one had taken the time to wash the bodies or anything - and Ned was so angry about his reaction to these deaths that he rode out in anger.. the next day, IIRC. The situation at SE war dire, and Lords Tyrell and Redwyne had not yet given up their siege, all pointing towards the fact that not that much time had passed between the Sack and the lifting of the siege..

So the Siege was lifted reasonably soon after the Sack, yet it had begun quite a a few months into the war. Yet both lasted 'close to a year'.. Showing that whatever is meant by 'close to a year', the actual war lasted longer than the Siege.

Indeed. 'close to a year' is either slightly less or slightly more than a year.

Speaking of Harrenhal... Lyanna came face-to-face with Rhaegar ten leagues from the castle, but we don't know if she was staying there, right? Perhaps she was on her way to Riverrun as well, having just passed Harrenhal.

Will there be a link or a message or something when each essay is posted?

so your what is your point? RLJ?

[wolfmaid7]

I'm not so familiar with the heresy threads (especially the speed they go in).. Is there usually one per 2 weeks, if the active one is 172 and around mid-august you expect to start 175?

Ehhh probably late August.Its been been in flux lately.So it depends.We can hit a surge and then slow down.So we'll see.I reall don't want to see it start later than Sept.

[stateofdissipation]

R+L=J theory now in the series, is like the theory of gravity.

It's technically not accurate, but it's very convincing for practical purposes.

The math mechanics that put the theory of gravity into "incorrect probability" is similar to whole Ned's travel distances and time to get where he was, days after the sack of KL until Ned arrives at the tower of joy, how many days from Harrenhal tourney to etc etc etc...

It's like you can't really prove that a bowling ball will reach the ground (gets pulled) faster when you're standing on Mount Everest, compare to when you're standing on the ground dropping the tennis ball. It's unrealistic and you need space (distance), in fact, you probably have to be miles high above the atmosphere to prove it. However, go beyond certain level of atmospheric distance, you already lose gravity, you're in space. Thus you have to go into the math of 0.00000000000111101010 something to prove that yes, a bowling ball will travel faster to the ground if dropped from Mount Everest, compare to when just standing on the ground dropping the tennis ball. Then you're just going to the whole electromagnetic force, dark matter/energy, etc etc... when you could just say gravity works practically 99.9% of the time on planet Earth.

damn, I probably just butchered that analogy, sorry if you're a physic major reading that.

The math probably is a bad analogy

Here is an interesting allegory

I take a bunch rocks of different colors and lay them out on the sidewalk. You come along and pick out the white rocks to make an arrow pointing North, It seems a reasonable thing to do. It makes sense. All the white rocks were there for the taking.

As it turns out, your arrow points south. Can you blame me for the mistake? Can I ask you why you messed up my smiley face?

[BearQueen87]

Well i doubt it will take 3-5 years to get through 2 Heresy threads.

lol I know. I was making a joke about how long until we get WOW

[IceFire125]

The math probably is a bad analogy

Here is an interesting allegory

I take a bunch rocks of different colors and lay them out on the sidewalk. You come along and pick out the white rocks to make an arrow pointing North, It seems a reasonable thing to do. It makes sense. All the white rocks were there for the taking.

As it turns out, your arrow points south. Can you blame me for the mistake? Can I ask you why you messed up my smiley face?

But the rocks were laid down by Martin, pointing to R+L, whether taken away by force or willingly, the hint is there. It's not me making things up, it was impressed on me by Martin. "Promise me, Ned" is ONE BIG STONE, it's the elephant in the room per se, that is Jon.

I would argue, you saw the same rocks, yet, you don't wanna see or deny its possibility. That's on you. And you go to a group of people telling them, that's not right, there are gaps, there are inaccurate things, there are other alternatives that the rocks are pointing to (which there are), but were not accepted by these groups of people, why?

[wolfmaid7]

lol I know. I was making a joke about how long until we get WOW

Oh gosh don't jinx it,don't you dare jinx.

[Sly Wren]

But the rocks were laid down by Martin, pointing to R+L, taken away by force or willingly, the hint is there. It's not me making things up, it was impressed on me by Martin. "Promise me, Ned" is ONE BIG STONE, it's the elephant in the room per se, that is Jon.

Agree on Martin putting down information and that the promise is a big hint.

Still, there's a big difference between what Martin states and what readers infer. Readers MUST infer when they read--no other way to read but to draw conclusions. But that does not in any way guarantee the conclusions are correct, especially in an incomplete text.

[wolfmaid7]

But the rocks were laid down by Martin, pointing to R+L, taken away by force or willingly, the hint is there. It's not me making things up, it was impressed on me by Martin. "Promise me, Ned" is ONE BIG STONE, it's the elephant in the room per se, that is Jon.

Sorry I have to ask this. But how is promise me one big stone in favor of Rhaegar? I'm guessing you are going to say Promise me Ned occurs??????? And is thus a connection how??????

I just want to see where your thinking is at.

[stateofdissipation]

But the rocks were laid down by Martin, pointing to R+L, taken away by force or willingly, the hint is there. It's not me making things up, it was impressed on me by Martin. "Promise me, Ned" is ONE BIG STONE, it's the elephant in the room per se, that is Jon.

Really.

The promise me... she whispered in a room that smelled of blood and roses

Lyanna in her bed of blood..... I promise Lya

Promise me his sister had whispered from her bed of blood,

He dreamed dark dreams of blood and BROKEN promises.

There may be an elephant but it is dead.

Your choice to ignore that is not Martin's fault.

[wolfmaid7]

By the way the essay on Tower of the hand.The Jon Snow parents essay,i don't see it.

[stateofdissipation]

snip

I would argue, you saw the same rocks, yet, you don't wanna see or deny its possibility. That's on you. And you go to a group of people telling them, that's not right, there are gaps, there are inaccurate things, there are other alternatives that the rocks are pointing to (which there are), but were not accepted by these groups of people, why?

I would argue, you saw the same rocks, yet, you don't wanna see or deny its possibility. That's on you.

I see the white rocks... they just don't make an arrow unless I move them.

And you go to a group of people telling them, that's not right, there are gaps, there are inaccurate things, there are other alternatives that the rocks are pointing to (which there are), but were not accepted by these groups of people, why?

I just pointed out the danger of moving rocks,

You found some white rocks that made what might be a line. In the middle there is a big black one. So you move it out of the way or you say it is not black at all. It is gray which is a shade of white.

The blood and BROKEN promises,,,, may not be a black rock. It could be gray. It still does not make your nice white line.

[Sly Wren]

I would argue, you saw the same rocks, yet, you don't wanna see or deny its possibility. That's on you. And you go to a group of people telling them, that's not right, there are gaps, there are inaccurate things, there are other alternatives that the rocks are pointing to (which there are), but were not accepted by these groups of people, why?

But the possibility is not an absolute. It's interpretation. It requires input from--in the case of books--readers.

Possibilities aren't evidence. They are interpretation. What Martin gives us as evidence in the books re: RLJ is very limited. What readers do with it is interpretation, not evidence. What readers take from the books via interpretation to add to the list of evidence--that's still interpretation, not given evidence.

[IceFire125]

Sorry I have to ask this. But how is promise me one big stone in favor of Rhaegar? I'm guessing you are going to say Promise me Ned occurs??????? And is thus a connection how??????

I just want to see where your thinking is at.

She was not sure if Ned (a friend to Robert and a Rebel) would ever give her his word, she knew about Rhaegar's other children. There's a reason she was so fearful, hanging on for Ned to promise her. It was for Jon to live, because at that time, Targaryen children had no guarantees...

Lord Tywin stared at him as if he had lost his wits. “You deserve that motley, then. We had come late to Robert’s cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Robert’s relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegar’s children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure. Yet he saw himself as a hero, and heroes do not kill children.” His father shrugged. “I grant you, it was done too brutally. Elia need not have been harmed at all, that was sheer folly. By herself she was nothing.”

Really.

The promise me... she whispered in a room that smelled of blood and roses

Lyanna in her bed of blood..... I promise Lya

Promise me his sister had whispered from her bed of blood,

He dreamed dark dreams of blood and BROKEN promises.

There may be an elephant but it is dead.

Your choice to ignore that is not Martin's fault.

Bed of blood, birthing bed. She gave birth to a baby. The elephant, Jon, survived, and he will want to know about his Mother.

Jon wondered if Joffrey would keep his father as the King’s Hand. It did not seem likely. That might mean Lord Eddard would return to Winterfell, and his sisters as well. He might even be allowed to visit them, with Lord Mormont’s permission. It would be good to see Arya’s grin again and to talk with his father. I will ask him about my mother, he resolved. I am a man now, it is past time he told me. Even if she was a whore, I don’t care, I want to know.

“Your son has no king’s blood. Melisandre gains nothing by giving him to the fire. Stannis wants the free folk to fight for him, he will not burn an innocent without good cause. Your boy will be safe. I will find a wet nurse for him and he’ll be raised here at Castle Black under my protection. He’ll learn to hunt and ride, to fight with sword and axe and bow. I’ll even see that he is taught to read and write.” Sam would like that. “And when he is old enough, he will learn the truth of who he is. He’ll be free to seek you out if that is what he wants.”

**Promise kept

**Promise broken

If you will give her the peace she needs and the time to deal with Stannis, and pledge to carry her secret to your grave, I believe she will allow you to take the black and live out the rest of your days on the Wall, with your brother and that baseborn son of yours.”

The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, and a sorrow too deep for words. If only he could see the boy again, sit and talk with him … pain shot through his broken leg, beneath the filthy grey plaster of his cast.

But the possibility is not an absolute. It's interpretation. It requires input from--in the case of books--readers.

Possibilities aren't evidence. They are interpretation. What Martin gives us as evidence in the books re: RLJ is very limited. What readers do with it is interpretation, not evidence. What readers take from the books via interpretation to add to the list of evidence--that's still interpretation, not given evidence.

It may not be for you, but they are evidence to give the theory strength from less likely to more, for me.

[Lady Dyanna]

Hi, all! I've been reading through some of the RLJ threads for a while now. I actually was originally drawn to the forum in order to see if other people out there had the same feeling as I did, that RLJ was a strong possibility. I still believe that it definitely has the most textual support of all of the theories out there. That being said, it doesn't seem that Martin always goes in the direction of always having the final answer be the one with the most textual support. If this were the case, then Jeoffrey wouldn't have been the one to send the assassin after Bran, nor would Lysa/Littlefinger be behind Jon Arryn's murder. These are just two examples off of the top of my head. This in turn makes me wonder if it's wrong to dismiss other possible theories on the basis of just having less textual support?

[wolfmaid7]

She was not sure if Ned (a friend to Robert and a Rebel) would ever give her his word, she knew about Rhaegar's other children. There's a reason she was so fearful, hanging on for Ned to promise her. It was for Jon to live, because at that time, Targaryen children had no guarantees...

Lord Tywin stared at him as if he had lost his wits. You deserve that motley, then. We had come late to Roberts cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Roberts relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegars children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure. Yet he saw himself as a hero, and heroes do not kill children. His father shrugged. I grant you, it was done too brutally. Elia need not have been harmed at all, that was sheer folly. By herself she was nothing.

Bed of blood, birthing bed. She gave birth to a baby. The elephant, Jon, survived, and he will want to know about his Mother.

Jon wondered if Joffrey would keep his father as the Kings Hand. It did not seem likely. That might mean Lord Eddard would return to Winterfell, and his sisters as well. He might even be allowed to visit them, with Lord Mormonts permission. It would be good to see Aryas grin again and to talk with his father. I will ask him about my mother, he resolved. I am a man now, it is past time he told me. Even if she was a whore, I dont care, I want to know.

Your son has no kings blood. Melisandre gains nothing by giving him to the fire. Stannis wants the free folk to fight for him, he will not burn an innocent without good cause. Your boy will be safe. I will find a wet nurse for him and hell be raised here at Castle Black under my protection. Hell learn to hunt and ride, to fight with sword and axe and bow. Ill even see that he is taught to read and write. Sam would like that. And when he is old enough, he will learn the truth of who he is. Hell be free to seek you out if that is what he wants.

**Promise kept

**Promise broken

If you will give her the peace she needs and the time to deal with Stannis, and pledge to carry her secret to your grave, I believe she will allow you to take the black and live out the rest of your days on the Wall, with your brother and that baseborn son of yours.

The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, and a sorrow too deep for words. If only he could see the boy again, sit and talk with him pain shot through his broken leg, beneath the filthy grey plaster of his cast.

It may not be for you, but they are evidence to give the theory strength from less likely to more, for me.

Thank you for laying out your process.

[WeaselPie]

Hi, all! I've been reading through some of the RLJ threads for a while now. I actually was originally drawn to the forum in order to see if other people out there had the same feeling as I did, that RLJ was a strong possibility. I still believe that it definitely has the most textual support of all of the theories out there. That being said, it doesn't seem that Martin always goes in the direction of always having the final answer be the one with the most textual support. If this were the case, then Jeoffrey wouldn't have been the one to send the assassin after Bran, nor would Lysa/Littlefinger be behind Jon Arryn's murder. These are just two examples off of the top of my head. This in turn makes me wonder if it's wrong to dismiss other possible theories on the basis of just having less textual support?

There is a risk of putting on blinders, yes. Rhaegar raped Lyanna (or maybe loved her), Ned found her in a bed of blood, then Ned went home to Winterfell with a baby that he claims is his bastard. Of course it adds up.

But I think GRRM is more clever than that. He hands us that info on a silver platter. Chapter One, Jon is a bastard. Chapter Four, Rhaegar raped Lyanna. That's not buried in secret ciphers, it's right in our face, along with Ashara and Wylla.

All of the "textual support" for RLJ is nothing more than personal interpretation to fill in the many, many holes that GRRM intended to be there. And I've seen all of these exact quotes interpreted very differently to support other theories.

RLJ is possible, but it's wrong to dismiss other theories.

edit spelling

[stateofdissipation]

She was not sure if Ned (a friend to Robert and a Rebel) would ever give her his word, she knew about Rhaegar's other children. There's a reason she was so fearful, hanging on for Ned to promise her. It was for Jon to live, because at that time, Targaryen children had no guarantees...

Lord Tywin stared at him as if he had lost his wits. “You deserve that motley, then. We had come late to Robert’s cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Robert’s relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegar’s children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure. Yet he saw himself as a hero, and heroes do not kill children.” His father shrugged. “I grant you, it was done too brutally. Elia need not have been harmed at all, that was sheer folly. By herself she was nothing.”

Bed of blood, birthing bed. She gave birth to a baby. The elephant, Jon, survived, and he will want to know about his Mother.

---snip--

It may not be for you, but they are evidence to give the theory strength from less likely to more, for me.

Bed of blood, birthing bed . She gave birth to a baby.

Bed of blood appears to be a synecdoche for childbirth.

WHITE STONE

Baby boy or baby girl?

IMPORTED STONE

Live birth or stillbirth`?

IMPORTED STONE

The elephant, Jon, survived,

MOVED STONE PAINTED WHITE

and he will want to know about his Mother.

MOVED STONE PAINTED WHITE

Jon wondered if Joffrey would keep his father as the King’s Hand. It did not seem likely. That might mean Lord Eddard would return to Winterfell, and his sisters as well. He might even be allowed to visit them, with Lord Mormont’s permission. It would be good to see Arya’s grin again and to talk with his father. I will ask him about my mother, he resolved. I am a man now, it is past time he told me. Even if she was a whore, I don’t care, I want to know.

This is a moved and painted stone,

The "promise kept" makes no sense as what Jon wanted did not happen and he made no promise,

Your son has no king’s blood. Melisandre gains nothing by giving him to the fire. Stannis wants the free folk to fight for him, he will not burn an innocent without good cause. Your boy will be safe. I will find a wet nurse for him and he’ll be raised here at Castle Black under my protection. He’ll learn to hunt and ride, to fight with sword and axe and bow. I’ll even see that he is taught to read and write.” Sam would like that. “And when he is old enough, he will learn the truth of who he is. He’ll be free to seek you out if that is what he wants.”

There is no promise, I do not know how to label it, Jon said some things to Gilly which may or may not turn out to be true.

**Promise kept

**Promise broken

If you will give her the peace she needs and the time to deal with Stannis, and pledge to carry her secret to your grave, I believe she will allow you to take the black and live out the rest of your days on the Wall, with your brother and that baseborn son of yours.”

The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, and a sorrow too deep for words. If only he could see the boy again, sit and talk with him … pain shot through his broken leg, beneath the filthy grey plaster of his cast.

Did Ned's shame and sorrow break a promise? Did wanting to see his baseborn son break a promise?

Did Ned's baseborn son keep a promise? Did Ned thinking of Jon keep a promise?

Are you just randomly adding color and bold to words?

It may not be for you, but they are evidence to give the theory strength from less likely to more, for me.

The strength it took for you to import stones, paint stones, and move them does not give any strength to your theory.

[Lady Darry]

Then what theory do you consider to be more probable than RLJ? And what's the evidence? It's fine if you don't think RLJ is 99.9% probable (like I do....01% off just because maybe GRRM really will do something I don't expect)...but what theory do you think is better/more probable than RLJ? I honestly don't think I know where you stand except that you think RLJ is problematic.

Just like Wolfmaid7 said :

"Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet Rhegar + Lyanna = Jon.Imagine what you'll know tomorrow---- Agent K."

With that difference that this are the books and not real life and as such this implies even more.

If a theory wants to rival RLJ, it doesn't have to have as strong evidence as RLJ. It doesn't have to be as strong as RLJ.

We want an alternative that would rival RLJ and that would be as strong as RLJ. But we can't apply the same amount of scrutiny towards alternative theories, because this is not real life or court. We say that if in 20 years no one was able to come out with a better theory that means R+L=J is true and that a stronger theory doesn't exist. But GRRM can give us 10% of clues regarding J parentage in first 5 books and 90% of clues in TWOW. In a way he did it with Jon Arryn. In AGOT most of the clues about Jon Arryn murder pointed towards Cersei. He purposely mislead readers. In ASOS Lysa gave us a monologue. I agree that RLJ is strong, but that doesn't mean it is true. He knew we will figure out RLJ. Because the moment you realise that Ned is not the father, R+L=J comes in. Which is not that easy, but still...

Maybe Howland Reed will give us a five page long monologue explaining Lyanna+Edric Dayne father. And just like Lysa monologue makes sense when you reread AGOT, maybe HR monologue about Lyanna+XYZ will make sense when we will reread first 5 books. And we will feel stupid for missing little clues.

Ygrain

Also, at that time we knew that Jon'w parentage could be figured from AGOT only, and Mance is barely mentioned there.

We know that his mother could be figured from AGOT only.

[WeaselPie]

You have misread what I wrote. We didn't know back then that Lyanna was taken at HH (though some of us theorized so). We dismissed the theory because there was nothing in the text that we could pin it on. No symbolism for Mance that would tie to Lyanna, no mention of Mance being at the right place in the right time, only a big unknown where he might have been back then. Also, at that time we knew that Jon'w parentage could be figured from AGOT only, and Mance is barely mentioned there.

Not including the prologue, Mance is introduced in the sixth sentence of Book One. Not sure how this intro could be more prominent

The man had been taken outside a small holdfast in the hills. Robb thought he was a wildling, his sword sworn to Mance Rayder, the King-beyond-the-Wall. It made Bran's skin prickle to think of it. He remembered the hearth tales Old Nan told them. The wildlings were cruel men, she said, slavers and slayers and thieves. They consorted with giants and ghouls, stole girl children in the dead of night, and drank blood from polished horns. And their women lay with the Others in the Long Night to sire terrible half-human children.

Second Paragraph of the entire series. Why is no more weight given to this? Is it just ignored because it sounds ridiculous? Because it's from a young boy?

Yet later we learn that the wildlings are cruel men, slayers and thieves. They do consort with giants, they do steal females. The Others do exist. And that this young boy has an incredible magical destiny, so maybe we should listen.

[Lady Darry]

Hi, all! I've been reading through some of the RLJ threads for a while now. I actually was originally drawn to the forum in order to see if other people out there had the same feeling as I did, that RLJ was a strong possibility. I still believe that it definitely has the most textual support of all of the theories out there. That being said, it doesn't seem that Martin always goes in the direction of always having the final answer be the one with the most textual support. If this were the case, then Jeoffrey wouldn't have been the one to send the assassin after Bran, nor would Lysa/Littlefinger be behind Jon Arryn's murder. These are just two examples off of the top of my head. This in turn makes me wonder if it's wrong to dismiss other possible theories on the basis of just having less textual support?

I agree. This was one of the reasons why I started to doubt in RLJ.

We can analyse blue roses and KG actions as much as we want, but it requires just one sentence in TWOW that a blue rose is engraved on Dawn, and how Arthur's favourite hobby was gardening and how Starfall is most famous for its large garden of winter roses because Starfall has some unique microclimate or some BS like that and all our theories will fall apart.