R+L=J v. 148

[aDanceWithFlagons]

I agree that RLJ is lacking in some regards--but it's in the details. Feelings, agenda, plans, and internal thoughts of all characters involved, R and L but also Arthur and Whent and even Hightower and Elia. But the basic theory: that the two of them are the parents of Jon Snow...that's less lacking than other theories people put forth, whatever is put forth in terms of letters. In terms of probability, RLJ is far (far far far IMO) more likely than any other. And I believe that's what it says in the OP; every other theory needs to reach the level of probability as RLJ and pass it in order to supplant.

The probability of rlj is in the eye of the beholder, to an extent. The amount and the assumed quality of proof is not shared by everyone.

[wolfmaid7]

Did I write "for"? That was a mistake. But either way, "for" or "with", is there any other symbolism that might tie her to any other person in the series?

This seems like some kind of mantra. For all the nopenopenope about GRRM's numbers, he still had a fine enough grasp about the time of Jon's birth that he narrowed down a reader's estimate stating a year before Dany to only 9-8 months.

Noooo not either way the context should be right when stating something like this.It is misleading.And yes there are other symbols that tie her to another.And a lot more intimately.

Plus i wouldn't call the timeline issue a mantra your deflecting an excellent point .lets move aside the SSM for now.I agree with ADanceFlagons by the way George didn't say that Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany .

That said,how can you say the red bolded with certainty?

[BearQueen87]

The probability of rlj is in the eye of the beholder, to an extent. The amount and the assumed quality of proof is not shared by everyone.

Then what theory do you consider to be more probable than RLJ? And what's the evidence? It's fine if you don't think RLJ is 99.9% probable (like I do....01% off just because maybe GRRM really will do something I don't expect)...but what theory do you think is better/more probable than RLJ? I honestly don't think I know where you stand except that you think RLJ is problematic.

[aDanceWithFlagons]

Did I write "for"? That was a mistake. But either way, "for" or "with", is there any other symbolism that might tie her to any other person in the series?

If you have beef with the OP, be specific.

This seems like some kind of mantra. For all the nopenopenope about GRRM's numbers, he still had a fine enough grasp about the time of Jon's birth that he narrowed down a reader's estimate stating a year before Dany to only 9-8 months.

Again, be specific. Preferably, one point by one, so that the discussion is easier to follow.

And antiRLJ blinders are supposed to be any better?

It was everything in that sentences that I referred to as "no proof of a solid grasp of the book text." Not the OP alone.

The timeline stuff is not a mantra for me. I see it all the time around the boards, and using the rlj timeline theory as proof of one thing or another. I posted the ssm again to show that the 8 or 9 months is not what Martin said.

I don't own any blinders myself. In fact, I don't believe "antiRLJ blinders" exist.

[Prince of Ghost]

Then what theory do you consider to be more probable than RLJ? And what's the evidence? It's fine if you don't think RLJ is 99.9% probable (like I do....01% off just because maybe GRRM really will do something I don't expect)...but what theory do you think is better/more probable than RLJ? I honestly don't think I know where you stand except that you think RLJ is problematic.

Starting with Heresy Thread 175 there will be essays discussing alternative theories to R+L=J. This link shows the order of essays and discussion. http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/98456-the-heretics-guide-to-heresy/page-4

[WeaselPie]

One great family is an irregularity two is a pattern it's not a stretch to say there could be a third.

And actually. The worst case of incest in the series belongs to none other than a very Northern character. So there is already a third.

[BearQueen87]

Starting with Heresy Thread 175 there will be essays discussing alternative theories to R+L=J. This link shows the order of essays and discussion. http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/98456-the-heretics-guide-to-heresy/page-4

Thanks I'll keep an eye on it.

[Bael's Bastard]

Those comparing RLJ to the idea of the Lannisters murdering Jon are only illustrating how baseless their opposition to RLJ is. RLJ is hinted in various ways and places, but never explicitly stated. One must deduce it (or be told about it) to know about it. The Lannisters are accused of murdering Jon in Cat's second POV IIRC. If anything is like believing the Lannisters murdered Jon, it is believing Ned is actually Jon's father, as we are told from the beginning, and as is almost surely not the case.

[wolfmaid7]

Note: The project will be running alongside H175.They will be 8 threads in all separate from the regular buisness of Heresy.Yet still under the umbrella.

6 prospects,a special essay as a respite and then a reflections thread.

[Ygrain]

Noooo not either way the context should be right when stating something like this.It is misleading.And yes there are other symbols that tie her to another.And a lot more intimately.

Do share, please.

Plus i wouldn't call the timeline issue a mantra your deflecting an excellent point .lets move aside the SSM for now.I agree with ADanceFlagons by the way George didn't say that Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany .

That said,how can you say the red bolded with certainty?

The timeline stuff is not a mantra for me. I see it all the time around the boards, and using the rlj timeline theory as proof of one thing or another. I posted the ssm again to show that the 8 or 9 months is not what Martin said.

Honestly, I have no idea what it is that you two are disputing. The lack of "thereabouts" when I paraphrased the SSM? How much leeway can "thereabouts" be when talking about 8-9 months? 10-7?

[LmL]

Are you referring to the symbolism in the main series or TWOIAF? Because at least in the main series all the chapters are from a limited POV characters which I am sure you know. Symbols can have different meanings to different characters, which can make the series very interesting.

I am speaking of the symbolism which is intended for the reader to notice, which is all through all published works in AOSIAF, including TWOIAF and Dunk and Egg. Every chapter, loaded with symbolism. None of this would be symbolism that the characters in the story understand or intend - I am speaking of metaphors and symbolism intended for the reader.

George Martin writes his prose like modern mythology, where every detail of many (if not most) scenes have symbolic value in addition to their ostensibly practical purpose within the scene. The blue rose is a great example - the reader is the only one who is supposed to understand that. Dany has no idea what it means, and may never know. (Perhaps her and Jon talk about blue roses one day? Maybe. But not necessary for us to interpret the symbol.)

[Prince of Ghost]

Note: The project will be running alongside H175.They will be 8 threads in all separate from the regular buisness of Heresy.Yet still under the umbrella.

6 prospects,a special essay as a respite and then a reflections thread.

Thank you for the clarification! :)

[LmL]

The probability of rlj is in the eye of the beholder, to an extent. The amount and the assumed quality of proof is not shared by everyone.

Which is why I keep saying that if anyone were to come up with a halfway viable alternate to RLJ, it would win over a measurable amount of ASOIAF fans. Everyone's idea of credible is different - but if, among thousands of people who pay some kind of close attention to ASOIAF for years and years, no other theory has gained traction, I believe that MAY be indicative that there is no other alternative with any level of credibility.

[LmL]

Those comparing RLJ to the idea of the Lannisters murdering Jon are only illustrating how baseless their opposition to RLJ is. RLJ is hinted in various ways and places, but never explicitly stated. One must deduce it (or be told about it) to know about it. The Lannisters are accused of murdering Jon in Cat's second POV IIRC. If anything is like believing the Lannisters murdered Jon, it is believing Ned is actually Jon's father, as we are told from the beginning, and as is almost surely not the case.

:agree: :bowdown: to your logic

[wolfmaid7]

Do share, please.

Honestly, I have no idea what it is that you two are disputing. The lack of "thereabouts" when I paraphrased the SSM? How much leeway can "thereabouts" be when talking about 8-9 months? 10-7?

As i said and have been saying,wait for the project.Then you have all the oppurtunity to dissect ,question etc.

It means given GRRMs tone its not really important.I don't think he's done the specifics to be honest.But i agree he has left enough clues to indicate to me not when Jon was born but that its being concealed.

I am speaking of the symbolism which is intended for the reader to notice, which is all through all published works in AOSIAF, including TWOIAF and Dunk and Egg. Every chapter, loaded with symbolism. None of this would be symbolism that the characters in the story understand or intend - I am speaking of metaphors and symbolism intended for the reader.

George Martin writes his prose like modern mythology, where every detail of many (if not most) scenes have symbolic value in addition to their ostensibly practical purpose within the scene. The blue rose is a great example - the reader is the only one who is supposed to understand that. Dany has no idea what it means, and may never know. (Perhaps her and Jon talk about blue roses one day? Maybe. But not necessary for us to interpret the symbol.)

That is incorrect.It has cultural sigificance for the Stark family.WB and main text validates that.

[wolfmaid7]

Thank you for the clarification! :)

Your welcome. :cheers:

[wolfmaid7]

Which is why I keep saying that if anyone were to come up with a halfway viable alternate to RLJ, it would win over a measurable amount of ASOIAF fans. Everyone's idea of credible is different - but if, among thousands of people who pay some kind of close attention to ASOIAF for years and years, no other theory has gained traction, I believe that MAY be indicative that there is no other alternative with any level of credibility.

"Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet Rhegar + Lyanna = Jon.Imagine what you'll know tomorrow---- Agent K."

[BearQueen87]

It was everything in that sentences that I referred to as "no proof of a solid grasp of the book text." Not the OP alone.

The timeline stuff is not a mantra for me. I see it all the time around the boards, and using the rlj timeline theory as proof of one thing or another. I posted the ssm again to show that the 8 or 9 months is not what Martin said.

I don't own any blinders myself. In fact, I don't believe "antiRLJ blinders" exist.

Just seeing the bold, so quick response.

Of course they do. I've seen posters who claim that they are some percentage (usually a high one--say between 80% and 90%) sure that RLJ is false. When pressed as to what they believe to be the answer to X+Y = J, they then spell out a theory that involves mental gymnastics in ignoring or working around the established timeline, character themes and motifs, and symbols. When these flaws are pointed out with textual canon evidence or SSMs, the response is usually "well we can't know for sure yet, so what's the harm in exploring other possibilities?" When the evidence FOR RLJ is pointed out, it is dismissed with "show me where there is definitive proof that RLJ had sex/were at the TOJ together/ or (perhaps most egregious of all) prove that Lyanna was ever pregnant" as if lack of definitive proof is the same as no proof whatsoever.

Is there harm in exploration? No (just tedious after awhile) but to claim that there aren't antiRLJ blinders is as wrong as saying there aren't proRLJ blinders.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I am afraid to go read what the previous thread has ended like if this is the result of it. :lol:

Edit: it wasn't bad, this is just the result of the new shiny. Loved the potential hint in the ship Lady Lyanna that was brought up.

Robert named the Lady Lyanna. Or how was this hint meant? Lyanna was not a princess being escorted to Dorne. Laenor Velaryon did not become a Prince upon his marriage to Princess Rhaenyra, nor did Laena become a princess upon her marriage to Prince Daemon. So perhaps the Princess going to Dorne is not such a good parallel, especially because Myrcella went to her betrothed, whereas Lyanna wouldn't have been going to her betrothed (Robert lived in the Stormlands, and was in the Vale at the start of the war, after all).

Or did I misunderstand the point of the Lady Lyanna?

Still "a year"* is always significantly longer than a human pregnancy. By three months precisely.

No way. Sorry.

*) "a year":

AGoT 12 Eddard II

When the war started, Brandon had been dead for at least the time it takes for the message from King's Landing to the Eyrie.

AGoT 27 Eddard VI

This year of siege has to fit somewhere into the above "close to a year".

In addition, Lyanna had gone missing some time before that.. Though we don't know exactly (or roughly) when.

Still no proof that the timeline isn't vague all i'm getting is conjecture, listen if they said the war began at the beginning 282 that's one thing if Brandon died at the beginning of the same year same deal. However what i'm hearing isn't fact but hearsay. The war lasted about a year that's a fact. The war began 282AC and ended 283AC that's also a fact. If you hear that Brandon died and was nowhere near Lyanna at the beginning of 282AC then I might revise my answer.

Lyanna went missing. We know where Brandon was.. In between Winterfell and Riverrun, on his way to Riverrun for his wedding. We know where Lyanna was.. ten leagues from Harrenhal. They were not close to each other, despite the fact that they might have been going to the same location.

Brandon died before the war started.

Jon and Robb are about the same age, and Robb was made right before the Battle of the Bells, was it? That was right after the Tully sisters were married out to strengthen armies. (A few months in.)

Hence Brandon already cannot be the father.

Lyanna was found at the end of the year, in her bed, dying. Pretty nicely on time, give or take some of that artistic freedom since travel times at the end of the war are a bit wonky.

Seems like someone wants to keep saying the time lines are vague just so a guy who died months before can still impregnate someone.

Brandon, the poor guy, must have been so shocked that someone might be sleeping with his sister (out of wedlock, because why would he at that point think that Rhaegar might have married her, if he did), which is the exact treatment he gives high born women in the North, lol.

After the Battle of the Bells :) Catelyn clearly remembers that Jon Arryn married Lysa after losing his last heir, who died at the Battle of the Bells. As Catelyn and Lysa married in the same ceremony, Cat married Ned after the Battle of the Bells as well ;)

you need a timeline to be correct as do I so you are correct and also incorrect at the same time, like I said show me a timeline. Also who do you think his father is? Just curious because I want to know where your coming from.

A quick draw-up

Lyanna disappeared, Brandon learned the news, Brandon travelled to KL, Rickard was summoned and travelled to KL, Rickard arrived in KL, and both Rickard and Brandon were executed an unknown amount of time later. After that, Aerys send summons to the Vale, and the war officially began. That war lasted "close to a year'', and ended at the Sack. After the Sack, Ned would travel to SE, lift the siege, which also lasted 'close to a year', and travelled to ToJ, where Lyanna was found dying.

The Siege of SE began later than the war, naturally. When the war began, Robert was in the Vale, where he fought in Gulltown. After these battles were won, he travelled to SE, where he called his banners, marched to Summerhal, fought the three battles in a day, marched back to SE, remained there for an unknown amount of time, marched to Ashford, and was defeated. From Ashford, the Tyrell army would have travelled to SE (not before). Only then could the Siege of SE begin.

During the Sack, Ned arrived in KL. We know Robert arrived later, but not too much later.. I'd guess it was only a matter of days, but that is a guess on my part. The bodies of Rhaenys, Elia and "Aegon" were still bloody from their murders - no one had taken the time to wash the bodies or anything - and Ned was so angry about his reaction to these deaths that he rode out in anger.. the next day, IIRC. The situation at SE war dire, and Lords Tyrell and Redwyne had not yet given up their siege, all pointing towards the fact that not that much time had passed between the Sack and the lifting of the siege..

So the Siege was lifted reasonably soon after the Sack, yet it had begun quite a a few months into the war. Yet both lasted 'close to a year'.. Showing that whatever is meant by 'close to a year', the actual war lasted longer than the Siege.

there you have it at least a year. But how long did the war last? About a year. Not a year, not even half a year but a about a year. Numerically speaking how would you quantify about? Me it means a year give or take a couple of months.

Indeed. 'close to a year' is either slightly less or slightly more than a year.

You have misread what I wrote. We didn't know back then that Lyanna was taken at HH (though some of us theorized so). We dismissed the theory because there was nothing in the text that we could pin it on. No symbolism for Mance that would tie to Lyanna, no mention of Mance being at the right place in the right time, only a big unknown where he might have been back then. Also, at that time we knew that Jon'w parentage could be figured from AGOT only, and Mance is barely mentioned there.

Speaking of Harrenhal... Lyanna came face-to-face with Rhaegar ten leagues from the castle, but we don't know if she was staying there, right? Perhaps she was on her way to Riverrun as well, having just passed Harrenhal.

Starting with Heresy Thread 175 there will be essays discussing alternative theories to R+L=J. This link shows the order of essays and discussion. http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/98456-the-heretics-guide-to-heresy/page-4

Will there be a link or a message or something when each essay is posted?

[Ygrain]

It means given GRRMs tone its not really important.I don't think he's done the specifics to be honest.But i agree he has left enough clues to indicate to me not when Jon was born but that its being concealed.

Yes, it is being concealed, but he could have answered, "keep reading". I do not get how you read this that the birth date is unimportant (by which I'm not sayint that it is necessarily very important) and that GRRM hasn't done the specifics when he was still able to provide a more specific time frame than the person who asked the question. If he never thought about any correlation of Jon's birth to major events, or if there was no major event around, he wouldn't have been able to do so.