Is Tywin a fool, or is GRRM sloppy?

[ConfusedCounselor]

 

Just gonna point in that the Dance of the Dragons did feature extended infighting between Great Houses to the point of Lord Tully killing Lord Baratheon in single combat.

 

Maybe I wasn't clear enough. I mean infighting among upper tier vassals themselves, in a conflict not involving the crown. Dance was a succession crisis. Very much Targ versus Targ at heart. 

[Lion of the West]

 

Maybe I wasn't clear enough. I mean infighting among upper tier vassals themselves, in a conflict not involving the crown. Dance was a succession crisis. Very much Targ versus Targ at heart. 

 

Alright, thanks for clearing it up for me.

[falcotron]

Oh, I do not think GRRM is sloppy. Sorry for any misunderstanding on that part. I disagree both with the sloppiness interpretation and your interpretation that real world feudalism applies in its totality to ASOIAF.

Where do I ever say that it "applies in its totality"? I say Westeros isn't 12th century England, but it's closer to 12th century England than 21st century America, or when we don't know otherwise it's a better guess that it's like European feudalism than like your modern intuition, etc., and you respond that Westeros isn't totally like feudalism. Well, duh.

And, likewise:

Though I do not think ASOIAF monarchs have as much power as modern governments or 19th century monarchies, I do not think they are as weak as you portray them to be. Being unable to deal with infighting seems to be exception, with easily identifiable reasons, rather than the rule. Not a terribly uncommon exception, but certainly not a point of policy.

I say that part of the point of feudalism is that a king has the option to ignore infighting, unless it gets bad enough (or there's some benefit to him in intervening, or he's dragged in by alliances, etc.), and you respond that it's not a point of policy to always ignore infighting. Again, duh.

If you're just going to invent things to respond to, what's the point in even having a discussion? I might as well respond by disagreeing with your interpretation that Robert has dragons, despite the fact that you never said any such thing, and it's not relevant to your point. And then you can disagree with my interpretation that the people of Planetos are Smurfs. And so on.

[Frey Pie]

I agree with the points that it was Tywin's hubris. Sending the mountain was dumb since as someone pointed out earlier b/c he is the most recognizable person in Westeros.
 
Also, as far as Tywin knows the Ned is a BAMF. Anyone worth their salt knows that the Ned won the battle of the bells, not Robert. The Ned rode his horse into the thrown room not knowing if he would find friend or foe. The Ned lifted the siege at Storms End. And as far as the entire realm knows the Ned killed Arthur Dayne then had the balls to walk right into Starfall. Ned was a commander at Pyke. There was no guarantee the Mountain would trap, defeat, and capture Ned at all.

I think this is a really strong point, one which I have made several times before. Ned is at the very least an extremely competent leader. He's also been to the Riverlands several times, knows some areas, has allies there etc. Gregor is a fantastic secondary commander as he inspires fear in his enemies. Ned won't fear him though, or if he does he won't let it rule him. And Ned is undoubtedly a smarter leader. I highly doubt Gregor would be able to catch Ned and if Tywin was to move in with more men, Ned would be able to retreat. In either situation the engagement has escalated and Tywin has made a grievous error

Tywin supporters say Jaime messed up by injuring Ned. I think it's the opposite

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I think this is a really strong point, one which I have made several times before. Ned is at the very least an extremely competent leader. He's also been to the Riverlands several times, knows some areas, has allies there etc. Gregor is a fantastic secondary commander as he inspires fear in his enemies. Ned won't fear him though, or if he does he won't let it rule him. And Ned is undoubtedly a smarter leader. I highly doubt Gregor would be able to catch Ned and if Tywin was to move in with more men, Ned would be able to retreat. In either situation the engagement has escalated and Tywin has made a grievous error

Tywin supporters say Jaime messed up by injuring Ned. I think it's the opposite

 

And if Gregor retreats to the West on hearing that Ned is in the Riverlands would Ned not give chase?

[Frey Pie]

And if Gregor retreats to the West on hearing that Ned is in the Riverlands would Ned not give chase?

That depends really. Tbh if Gregor retreated I think Ned would go after him but not right away. He has the whole Riverlands to go through. I could see him heading to Riverrun and consulting with Hoster. Ravens would probably be sent to Tywin from there and with the time deals from this there would be further news from the capital. Once gain I highly doubt Ned would go galloping straight after Gregor into the enemies jaws. Where's the sense in that?

[Frey Pie]

As politically naive as Ned is, he isn't militarily at all

[ConfusedCounselor]

Where do I ever say that it "applies in its totality"? I say Westeros isn't 12th century England, but it's closer to 12th century England than 21st century America, or when we don't know otherwise it's a better guess that it's like European feudalism than like your modern intuition, etc., and you respond that Westeros isn't totally like feudalism. Well, duh.

 

And I said many times, in many different wordings (not including the word 'totality') that I think the text does not support the extent to which you seem to apply 12th century feudalism. And argued that based on the text and not 'my modern intuition'. 

And, likewise:
I say that part of the point of feudalism is that a king has the option to ignore infighting, unless it gets bad enough (or there's some benefit to him in intervening, or he's dragged in by alliances, etc.), and you respond that it's not a point of policy to always ignore infighting. Again, duh.

 

You use words and phrases like 'option', 'benefit' and "every king would let them fight". Which leads me too assume you mean it is something a king could and would do even if not forced into it by the circumstances, even if he had the ability to interfere. A policy he could follow towards certain vassals or certain conflicts. I claim ASOIAF does not support this view. Certainly not among top level vassals.     

If you're just going to invent things to respond to, what's the point in even having a discussion? I might as well respond by disagreeing with your interpretation that Robert has dragons, despite the fact that you never said any such thing, and it's not relevant to your point. And then you can disagree with my interpretation that the people of Planetos are Smurfs. And so on.

 

I think the biggest invention of all is this accusation of straw manning. If you read my posts and do not only respond to a few miscellaneous pieces that, ignoring the context of everything else I wrote, might be interpreted as inventing, you'd see I address points you claim, or at least strongly imply. 

[Chancho]

Robert Baratheon had no stomach to pick sides... thats what Tywin believed, Tywin wanted a quick payback, exchange hostages, truce and everyone go home (Tywin calming his ego)... Don't see anything too wrong about that, Robert wasn't showing a lot of grip, He owed a lot to Tywin (Gold) and was married to Cersei.

[jarl the climber]

Jon Arryn had died and Lysa Arryn was now Regent of the Vale, which means Littlefinger was really running things, Tywin probably knew this. Hoster Tully was dying and his son and heir was a young foppish sort and Tywin was probably aware of this. So I think Tywin saw that war was inevitable and that Arryn being dead and Tully disabled and not a factor gave him a big advantage. Cersei really didn't need Robert anymore and she was trying to bump him off and I think Tywin was aware of this. I actually think he was doing things behind the scenes to insure that she did sucseed. So if he could deal with Ned and the Starks quickly then he would just have the Barratheon brothers to worry about. The biggest risk to Tywin would be if Ned had accepted the regency for Joffrey. Essentially Tywin launched a coup against Roberts regime and he won. Cersei thought she was doing it for herself but that all ended once Tywin returned to Kings Landing.  

[Hodor's Speechwriter]

Tywin owned Robert and they both knew it. Okay, maybe Robert didn't, but Littlefinger did at least. He could act with impunity, and couldn't resist showing off his power. The man did demand respect before all else.

[falcotron]

Jon Arryn had died and Lysa Arryn was now Regent of the Vale, which means Littlefinger was really running things, Tywin probably knew this.

How could Tywin possibly know that Littlefinger was running things in the Vale? Even the knights of the Vale had no suspicions. The only thing anyone knew is that there were rumors about a relationship between Petyr and one of Hoster's daughters 18 years earlier--which ended with him challenging Brandon for Cat's hand. Anyone who guessed that Petyr was stringing Lysa along for the last two decades was not just smart, but psychic.

More generally, the only reason Littlefinger gets away with everything is that almost nobody has any suspicions that he's even trying anything. Almost everyone thinks that Petyr is exactly what he appears to be: a minor noble who's risen above his station by making himself useful to everyone, and who depends on their continued patronage. A grand total of two people have guessed that he's up to something: Varys, and Tyrion. Even Varys can't figure out what that something is, which doesn't speak much to anyone else's chances of doing so. Tyrion finds out about Petyr's financial manipulations, but he has no idea that it goes farther than that (e.g., that all of the spies he's hiring are already Petyr's men)--and meanwhile, Tywin has trusted Petyr on an important and delicate secret mission, and won't listen to Tyrion after they return.

The odds that Tywin knows that Petyr has Lysa wrapped around his finger and is using her to control the Vale as part of a long-range plan are somewhere between nil and zero.
 

Hoster Tully was dying and his son and heir was a young foppish sort

Edmure is a loud, hot-headed drunk who's proud of his rough, manly beard. (Yes, I know Cat says it's "fierce", but I don't think that has the same connotations as in our world.) But, if he actually were a fop, how would that imply the likelihood of war, rather than the opposite?

[Fat Mac]

Tywin owned Robert and they both knew it. Okay, maybe Robert didn't, but Littlefinger did at least. He could act with impunity, and couldn't resist showing off his power. The man did demand respect before all else.

I wouldn't say Tywin was even close to owning Robert. Lannister power in KL during Robert's reign is seriously overstated.

Robert owed Tywin a lot of money. Thats the only thing that would suggest control over Robert. But that wouldn't give Tywin free reign to do what he wanted. Because if he stepped over bounds Robert could declare him a traitor and void his debt to the Lannisters. He is the King after all, and weilds much more power than Tywin. If he wanted to raise his banners and crush Tywin, he very well could, and he'd probably win.

Robert just didn't want a Stark/Lannister conflict. Most of what he did during GoT, whether it seemed cowardly or not, was done to keep the wolf and the lion from fighting.

[Dukhasinov]

Ok, a lot of good discussion going on here, and I`ve come away with it with a better understanding of the situation. Tywin`s priority in attacking the Riverlands was avenging the insult Tyrion`s capture meant to his family. He knew that attacking/capturing the Hand would have to provoke a response from Robert. But, he was the Warden of the West, the Iron Throne`s chief creditor, and the King`s father-in-law. That reaction would be an ultimatum, rather than a bill of attainder and an army marching from the Crownlands. Any other Lord Paramount would have probably lost his head for doing the same thing. The King`s ultimatum would allow him to de-escalate the conflict without losing face, and Robert would certainly order Tyrion`s release at the same time. If the Tullys sought redress for the attrocities commited by Ser Gregor Clegane, plausible deniability would allow Tywin to deny responsibility for Ser Gregor`s actions. The Mountain, useful as he is, is also expendable, and Tywin could even offer up his head to help broker the peace and count it no great loss. At the end of the day, Tywin`s prestige would be increased, since he swiftly and violently answered an insult to his House, and only backed down from hostilities under the King`s authority (that he himself provoked.) My faith in Martin`s storytelling is restored.

 

   All of the discussion of feudalism has been pretty interesting as well. I think it`s a mistake to think too much of the norms of historical feudalism when discussing Westerosi politics. There are some very sharp differences. In Westeros, it seems that a noble woman is not necessarily absorbed into her husband`s House when she is married, at least not when the houses are of equal standing. Cercei is never refered to as "Cercei Baratheon," although her children are identified as such. Cat, however, is refered to back-and-forth as a Stark or Tully. Tywin holds the Tullys just as responsible as the Starks for Tyrion`s capture. Westeros` noble hierarchy is much simpler than real-world feudal nobility. There are only "Lords," and "Knights," without the kaleidoscope of barons, dukes, counts, earls, boyars, emirs, grand-pubahs and what-have-you. Thank God Martin left out the noble practice of referring to a man by his lands rather than his name. (So Tywin might be called Lord Westerland.) It`s hard enough to keep all the characters straight when they only have one name. In the real world, bastardy was not necessarily a hindrance to inheritance, and even successsion.

 

   As to what Robert or Cercei could legally do or not do with the Kingsguard, Westeros, though technologically seems to be in the Tudor period or so, socially it seems to be squarely in the time of Charlemaign. There seems to be little, if any, written law regarding governance. Kings and Lords seem to be able to do whatever they think they can get away with. People talk about the Law Code of Jahaerys, but I don`t think I`ve heard anyone quote from it. The power of the Crown and Lords seems to be based entirely on precedent and tradition. When Cercei dismisses Ser Barristan, no-one (Not even Barristan himself) appeals to any kind of written law to tell her she can`t do it. It`s just a tradition. Tyrion`s trial is a joke even by the standards of medieval justice. The concept of impartiality does not seem even be a thing, since no-one questions the appropriateness of Tywin sitting in judgement of his own son. Even Trial by Combat is insane by historical standards. Bron would never have been allowed to fight Vardas Egan without armor. The same goes for the duel between Oberyn Martel and the Mountain. The size discrepancy between the combatants alone would have been considered grossly unfair, nevermind the disparity in weapons and armor. Also, in a real judicial combat, the fight would have been ended as soon as Clegane was dropped. Fighting to the death would have seemed ridiculous, especially when the fight was between two champions. (their personal history notwithstanding) 

[jarl the climber]

How could Tywin possibly know that Littlefinger was running things in the Vale? Even the knights of the Vale had no suspicions. The only thing anyone knew is that there were rumors about a relationship between Petyr and one of Hoster's daughters 18 years earlier--which ended with him challenging Brandon for Cat's hand. Anyone who guessed that Petyr was stringing Lysa along for the last two decades was not just smart, but psychic.

More generally, the only reason Littlefinger gets away with everything is that almost nobody has any suspicions that he's even trying anything. Almost everyone thinks that Petyr is exactly what he appears to be: a minor noble who's risen above his station Because he was favored by Lady Lysa and by making himself useful to everyone, and who depends on their continued patronage. A grand total of two people have guessed that he's up to something: Varys, and Tyrion. Even Varys can't figure out what that something is, which doesn't speak much to anyone else's chances of doing so. Tyrion finds out about Petyr's financial manipulations, but he has no idea that it goes farther than that (e.g., that all of the spies he's hiring are already Petyr's men)--and meanwhile, Tywin has trusted Petyr on an important and delicate secret mission, and won't listen to Tyrion after they return.

The odds that Tywin knows that Petyr has Lysa wrapped around his finger and is using her to control the Vale as part of a long-range plan are somewhere between nil and zero.
 
Edmure is a loud, hot-headed drunk who's proud of his rough, manly beard. (Yes, I know Cat says it's "fierce", but I don't think that has the same connotations as in our world.) But, if he actually were a fop, how would that imply the likelihood of war, rather than the opposite?

When Tyrion was considering a marriage alliance for Myrcella and was considering Robert Arryn who did he speak to. Did he write a letter to Lysa Arryn suggesting the idea? No he went to Petyr. Petyr said he could swing this, he had a great deal on influence with Lysa, he had been boasting about in court for years. Then in ASOS when Tywin rules as Hand again one of the first things he does is raise Petyr up to Lord of Harrenhal and sends him to the Vale with his blessing to marry Lysa and bring her back to the fold without a second thought. The fact that Petyr was fostered at Riverrun and was still close to Lysa wasn't a secret. 
 
Anything that happened in the capitol probably reached Tywins ear quickly. Pycelle was his creature, he knew that Renly was trying to get Robert to marry Margery and set aside Cersei, he knew that Jon Arryn had been poisoned, that Arryn along with Stannis had been investigating the parentage of Cerseis children. Robert Arryn was going to be fostered on Dragonstone but after Arryns death Tywin swooped in to try and foster him at the Rock. 
 
As far as Edmure goes, he fancies himself a knight and a ladies man and he's not a bad guy but I don't think he is anywhere near as formidable as his Father. A healthy Hoster Tully would have given Tywin some reason to pause.

[Patchfaces O'Houlihan]

I don't see Robert as dumb... more like a guy who's just had enough of being King.  In the first book he goes on and on about how he wishes he could just ride off into the sunset to drink, hunt & screw maidens and never look back.  He should have just stepped down as king, taken the black and became Moletown's most frequent customer :eek: