R+L=J v.157

[Jon Snow Nothing]

2 hours ago, purple-eyes said:

I completely disagree that Rhaegar was threatening his father by saying: if you do not agree my polygamy marriage with Lyanna or my child from her is a legit prince, then I will stay right here in TOJ!

He did not have this power at all.

Aerys had capable people to lead the army. He had another son to be heir. He can send more troop to attack a lonely and small TOJ and capture Rhaegar and Lyanna and use her as a perfect hostage. Rhaegar had to obey his king father. Not the other way around.

It is obvious that Rhaegar wanted to keep his throne and become future king, so he had to go back to guard his country. Otherwise he would lose everything.

There is nothing he can threaten his father, unless he decided he would abandon his throne and run away with Lyanna to live a sellsowrd life in Essos forever. Then he can ignore his father's summoning.

 

 

Not threaten - you misunderstood me. He most likely replied that no, he wouldn't go to war to fight Robert. Aerys was desperate. They needed a Targaryen to fight Robert, like I said, a parallel to the trial by combat. The gods would choose the right one.

Nobody cared about Lyanna but Robert and the Starks, the rest of the Realm would rather stay quiet and depose Aerys without a war.

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, IceFire125 said:

Didn't Aerys summon Elia and her children to the Red Keep from Dragonstone? I believe Rhaegar totally did not agree to this or was part of his plan, but he could not disallow the order since it was from the king.  Rhaegar knew that Elia (and the children) were mere hostages to keep Dorne in line in the coming push to raise the royal army and repel the rebels, to which he was to lead.  I think this was also part of the factor to hid Lyanna away from Aerys' men and spies (Varys).

That is a reasonably good assumption based on the fact that Elia and the children were on Dragonstone when Rhaegar left, but in Maegor's Holdfast when the war ended. However, strictly speaking we have no clue when they arrived there, or who called them to court. Technically it could have been even Rhaegar since quite some time passed between his return to KL and the Trident. The first time Elia and her children come up is when Aerys threatens Doran and Lewyn with their lives, using them as hostages against Dorne - which took place while Rhaegar was mustering the new Targaryen army. Another, perhaps even more likely scenario is that a pissed Elia traveled to KL of her own choice to formally complain with her royal father-in-law that his ingrate son has taken a second wife. The chances that Elia was fine with the Lyanna affair are very low if you ask me, and the only person who could help Elia in all that was Aerys...

Elia's status at the end of the war is completely unclear, however. If we go with a Lyanna-Rhaegar marriage Elia could effectively be Rhaegar's former wife, and her children could either be royal children or not, depending on the whim of Rhaegar and/or Aerys (Rhaegar is not forced to take two wives, he can also set aside his first wife and take a new one - in the eyes of some that would still be polygamy, but certainly a lesser form them him living together and having sex with two wives a the same time). Depending on the Aerys-Rhaegar relationship at this point it is possible that Aerys used Elia and the children as hostages against Rhaegar himself as much as he used them as hostages against Dorne, or it is possible that the hostages against Dorne thing was more or less a ruse/bluff because Rhaegar and Aerys had reconciled and/or Rhaegar was effectively in charge due to being the commander of the Targaryen army. In such a scenario it is strange that Rhaegar would leave his wife and children in the hands of his mad and vindictive father, however - again pointing towards the possibility that Rhaegar wasn't all that much in charge and/or did (no longer) care all that much about Elia and his children by her.

And one really has to consider the fact that the Martells actually had no issues with Aerys. The king did execute Rickard and Brandon Stark, and demanded the heads of Robert Baratheon and Eddard Stark, but that's not Dorne's concern. Sunspear would have had issues with Rhaegar, and Rhaegar alone, due to the fact that the whole Lyanna affair dishonored/humiliated Elia, and it was this affair which caused Doran Martell to be very reluctant to support his in-laws during the Rebellion. It may be that threatening/blackmailing Doran and Lewyn into supporting the Targaryens was done by Aerys with Rhaegar's approval and support.

[purple-eyes]

31 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a reasonably good assumption based on the fact that Elia and the children were on Dragonstone when Rhaegar left, but in Maegor's Holdfast when the war ended. However, strictly speaking we have no clue when they arrived there, or who called them to court. Technically it could have been even Rhaegar since quite some time passed between his return to KL and the Trident. The first time Elia and her children come up is when Aerys threatens Doran and Lewyn with their lives, using them as hostages against Dorne - which took place while Rhaegar was mustering the new Targaryen army. Another, perhaps even more likely scenario is that a pissed Elia traveled to KL of her own choice to formally complain with her royal father-in-law that his ingrate son has taken a second wife. The chances that Elia was fine with the Lyanna affair are very low if you ask me, and the only person who could help Elia in all that was Aerys...

Elia's status at the end of the war is completely unclear, however. If we go with a Lyanna-Rhaegar marriage Elia could effectively be Rhaegar's former wife, and her children could either be royal children or not, depending on the whim of Rhaegar and/or Aerys (Rhaegar is not forced to take two wives, he can also set aside his first wife and take a new one - in the eyes of some that would still be polygamy, but certainly a lesser form them him living together and having sex with two wives a the same time). Depending on the Aerys-Rhaegar relationship at this point it is possible that Aerys used Elia and the children as hostages against Rhaegar himself as much as he used them as hostages against Dorne, or it is possible that the hostages against Dorne thing was more or less a ruse/bluff because Rhaegar and Aerys had reconciled and/or Rhaegar was effectively in charge due to being the commander of the Targaryen army. In such a scenario it is strange that Rhaegar would leave his wife and children in the hands of his mad and vindictive father, however - again pointing towards the possibility that Rhaegar wasn't all that much in charge and/or did (no longer) care all that much about Elia and his children by her.

And one really has to consider the fact that the Martells actually had no issues with Aerys. The king did execute Rickard and Brandon Stark, and demanded the heads of Robert Baratheon and Eddard Stark, but that's not Dorne's concern. Sunspear would have had issues with Rhaegar, and Rhaegar alone, due to the fact that the whole Lyanna affair dishonored/humiliated Elia, and it was this affair which caused Doran Martell to be very reluctant to support his in-laws during the Rebellion. It may be that threatening/blackmailing Doran and Lewyn into supporting the Targaryens was done by Aerys with Rhaegar's approval and support.

Rhaegar is willing to use elia and children to blackmail Dorne to provide support to himself. For this we can be sure. He wanted to win so he desperately needed the spears of Dorne. 

Dorne would not help him to fight for lyanna, so he can only use Elia and her children to threaten them. Easy and simple. 

[purple-eyes]

IMHO, there is a decent chance that rhaegar and lyanna intentionally stirred this war and let this war grow to get rid of Aerys, Elia and her two children, so that rhaegar can become king and install lyanna as his queen. This is a perfect way to keep his hands clean from kinslaying and polygamy marriage. 

He may also want to get rid of all the Starks by this way, so that his second kid from lyanna will inherit winterfell one day. North will be ruled by a Targ as a cadet branch. 

He almost succeeded all of these if Robert did not do well with his war hammer. 

 

 

[WitteRaaf]

3 minutes ago, WitteRaaf said:

I found something that, at the very least, I found interesting and I thought I would share.

garnet:regeneration, vitality, order

brings order to chaos

offers protection from evil during travel, nightmares, and wounds

assists in success of ones career

makes your life purpose clear

used to access ancient memories through past life regression

increases commitment, honesty, hope, and faith

overcomes crisis and trauma

assists in diminishing or eliminating abandonment issues

enhances sensuality, sexuality, and intimacy

brings inner strength

associated with the element fire

associated with the planet Rahu

Rahu is not technically a planet. It is one of the two lunar nodes, the north node

Rahu is also called the head of the dragon

hmmmm.........

Jon is associated with garnets through longclaw, and this seems to fit him pretty well if R+L=J

 

[purple-eyes]

Oh, and I think it is impossible for showmakers to simply tell people rhaegar married Lyanna after the death of Elia and his children.

It was very well established that Elia died after Rhaegar in the Show materials.

So unless they made a scary wedding for Lyanna and a ghost of rhaegar, then this can not happen.

 

[Ser Creighton]

On 1/22/2016 at 3:01 PM, RumHam said:

Actually he did slip up once and call it a greatsword.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/2999

Okay, well Martin seem to be going with hand and half and been doing it for some time now. If he slipped up nearly 15 years ago it makes no difference.

On 1/22/2016 at 3:01 PM, purple-eyes said:

I think you are hinting Longclaw is balckfyre? well, This is a quite wild speculation.

I think the reason that GRRM gave two minor houses of iron islands two VS blades were to simply cancel this doubt: Mormont is so poor, how can they hold a VS blade?

It's not so much about the house as the idea of putting a parallel to the sword in the hands of Jon.

"He is giving me his sons sword."

"No bastard could ever hope to wield his fathers sword."

"Even the memory shamed him. What kind of man stole his own brother's birth right?"

The Iron Islands were not always. The Iron Born built the greatest castle in Westeros.

"Three Hoares ruled over the riverlands as Kings of the Isles and the Rivers. After the War of Conquest, however, the ironborn were thrown back to their islands with Harren the Black and all his line extinguished."

It does not have to be Blackfyre, it just has to be one of the only two known Valyrian hand and a half swords in existence. If it falls in the hands of a Blackfyre, that works as a parallel. If it is never seen, a Targaryen still manages to have a Valyrian hand and a half sword. It works well enough with It's white pommel, even better if blackfyre ends up with a Dragonbone pommel. Literal or symbolic it works.

You can say coincidence, chance, accident, whatever you want. Doesn't change the fact that Jon has a Valyrian Bastard Sword and the missing Blackfyre is a Valyrian bastard sword. I would not even consider it any for of speculation, because it is not, Jon has a Valyrian bastard Sword and Blackfyre was a Valyrian Bastard sword. 1 of 7 known Valyrian Swords still in existence, and one of only 13 ever talked about in Westeros. It used to be 12 till Ice was split and their may be an Axe. The speculation that it is Blackfyre would not be that Wild given Bloodraves association with Redgrass, the wall, and taking things. But it does not have to be. Because there are only 2 the chances are 50/50. That's not exactly wild. Do to the fact it was a war between Blackfyre and Targaryen again the odds don't change. Redgrass is the last place we see Blackfyre, both Bloodraven and Bittersteel end up as exiles.

1st. Blackfyre rebellion we see Blackfyre. No word of who picked up on the redgrass field.

2nd Blackfyre rebellion. No Blackfyre. Which is okay Bittersteel could still have had it.

Golden Company is formed.

3rd Blackfyre Rebellion. Bittersteel Crowns Heagon, Bittersteel and Bloodraven duel again. Heagon would give up his sword and was killed. Bittersteel taken prisoner. Now maybe they forgot Blackfyre back in Tyrosh if they had it, and Maybe they leave behind the symbol of their house. But it would seem odd since the blade is their greatest claim, symbol and support. What is house Blackfyre without Blackfyre? How would the sword have gotten away this time? Though it is never mentioned. Now of course this is something Bloodraven would want because it would weaken their claim.

But again not only do we get Blackfyre vs. Targaryen. But this time the King is once again slain after giving up his sword and Bittersteel captured. It seems unlikely the sword escaped if it had been there.

Great Council Aenys Blackfyre, would put fourth his claim to the council. He would arrive in KL to put fourth his claim in person. Off with his head. Bloodraven would go to the Black cells and then the wall.

How many shots does Bloodraven need at this sword if he did not get it in the first rebellion. No word of the sword nobody ever sees it again, and this all revolved around Bloodraven, who happens to have been at the wall where he would spend almost 2 decades.

Blackfyre is the actual claim that house Blackfyre makes to the throne. You don't think this is something Bloodraven would take to break the house? How many chances does he need at the sword? It would seem he had plenty. Of course Martin could write, that Bittersteel never let anyone carry the Sword, because even though he is not king it's his and he crowns Blackfyres but does not give them the sword because using it to gain support would make to much sense.

Maybe Daemon III forgot about the sword, and Maely's forgot to use it even though Bittersteel was dead and he sure could of used some support. Or maybe it was hidden away and the like Longclaw a super valuable Valyrian steel sword was forgotten about. Yeah maybe house Blackfyre forgot about their actual claim to the throne and the symbol of their house and name.

Now I can believe Martin will write the sword magically teleports time and again to the losing team, or that the Blackfyres never use the symbol of their claim to gain support with or without Bittersteel. Or that the Golden Company who has not been run by a Blackfyre for 40 years keeps it in one of their tents. Or Illyrio has had it for however long and sent it to JonCon to use to make a claim that FAegon is the son of Rhaegar. Because that makes sense.

So either all the Blackfyres thought in the last 5 rebellion that using it was a bad idea to claim the throne. The one thing they have that gives them a claim. Or the sword constantly magically escapes back to Essos every time which would seem very contrived given not only do the Blackfyres lose every time, but their Kings have been captured or killed every time. The one person who should have the sword. Even Bittersteel has been captured. Bittersteel and the king.

But I guess they forgot to use the sword when they were house Blackfyre, but now that they are house "Targaryen" they are going to use the sword.

Now Martin can write a lot of plot holes to try and fit Blackfyre into wherever he wants it to be. It will show up again, but it does not change the fact that Bloodraven could of easily gotten his hands on that sword on multiple occasions. Now if they never used Blackfyre that is fine, a bit idiotic on their part, kind of a handy device to gain support, but okay they did not use it for 100 years or so. And now its Targfyre, the sword of FAegon. Sure it's heavily contrived, but so is the boy for the wine story. I can say all that, or I can think there is an outside chance that Bloodraven would do something sneaky with a sword he should of been exposed to multiple times, but at least had one chance at it. Which is what you consider wild speculation.

 

 

 

 

 

[RumHam]

4 hours ago, Ser Creighton said:

Okay, well Martin seem to be going with hand and half and been doing it for some time now. If he slipped up nearly 15 years ago it makes no difference.

Right, I was just pointing out that your claim it was a fan invention was factually inaccurate. 

[SFDanny]

22 hours ago, purple-eyes said:

Rhaegar is willing to use elia and children to blackmail Dorne to provide support to himself. For this we can be sure. He wanted to win so he desperately needed the spears of Dorne. 

Dorne would not help him to fight for lyanna, so he can only use Elia and her children to threaten them. Easy and simple. 

"For this we can be sure"? purple-eyes, you never cease to amaze with your ability to use your bias in a bald-face way as a substitute for evidence. Where, in the entirety of Martin's works, or in the author's comments do you have one bit of evidence showing that Rhaegar "is willing to use Elia and children to blackmail Dorne to provide support to himself"? We have plenty of evidence Aerys is willing to do so. None. Nada, Zilch, that Rhaegar is willingly to do so. Perhaps, instead of the aforementioned "we can be sure" it would be more correct to say, "I think ..." or something to that effect when expressing something out of your dreams.

[purple-eyes]

24 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

"For this we can be sure"? purple-eyes, you never cease to amaze with your ability to use your bias in a bald-face way as a substitute for evidence. Where, in the entirety of Martin's works, or in the author's comments do you have one bit of evidence showing that Rhaegar "is willing to use Elia and children to blackmail Dorne to provide support to himself"? We have plenty of evidence Aerys is willing to do so. None. Nada, Zilch, that Rhaegar is willingly to do so. Perhaps, instead of the aforementioned "we can be sure" it would be more correct to say, "I think ..." or something to that effect when expressing something out of your dreams.

Because he did not do anything to change that. 

Either he is willing. Or he is reluctantly and eventually willing. Ok? 

If he is really realy unwilling, he would change that. 

He already persuaded Aerys to ask help from Tywin. 

His words with Jaime implied that he could take Jaime with him if he wants. 

He is in charge of everything so it is not that he did not have ability to send his family back to DS, away from his mad daddy. Who want to leave your infant children with a mad man? 

Keep in mind, rhaegar is also the major benefactor of this "elia as hostage" thing. 

In order to win, he badly needed dornish spears but Dorne was reluctant to help if not for the sake of elia as hostage. 

He had a strong motivation to approve his father on this. 

Try imagine this, if doran said: sent elia back to Dorne then I will send you army. 

Do you think rhaegar would agree? 

 

Of course there is no direct proof for that, but put yourself in shoes of rhaegar, then you know you will be willing on this. 

Just like Robert over the action of tywin on elia's children. 

Do we need to have proof to know Robert is willing to accept this? 

No. 

 

 

[SFDanny]

10 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

Because he did not do anything to change that. 

Either he is willing. Or he is reluctantly and eventually willing. Ok? 

If he is really realy unwilling, he would change that. <snip>

This is your assumption, once again. Not evidence. My own guess is that Elia and her children are not only Aerys's hostages against Dorne's conduct, but also against Rhaegar's. For this I give you the evidence of not only Aerys's use of Elia and her children as hostages, but also Rhaegar's need for Aegon, and likely Rhaenys for his "three-headed dragon" and his fondness for Elia. Conclusive? No, but at least that is evidence pointing in one direction instead of the nothing supporting your idea.

[purple-eyes]

5 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

This is your assumption, once again. Not evidence. My own guess is that Elia and her children are not only Aerys's hostages against Dorne's conduct, but also against Rhaegar's. For this I give you the evidence of not only Aerys's use of Elia and her children as hostages, but also Rhaegar's need for Aegon, and likely Rhaenys for his "three-headed dragon" and his fondness for Elia. Conclusive? No, but at least that is evidence pointing in one direction instead of the nothing supporting your idea.

Sure, you may even assume that rhaegar only came back to KL and led the army because Aerys threatened him: boy, if you do not come back and fight for me, then your wife and children will die. Then rhaegar sadly left lyanna and went back since he did not want three of  them get killed. 

But come back to topic, my evidence is that, it looks like Aerys had a ok and trustful relationship with rhaegar during the rebellion. 

When Brandon shouted rhaegar to die, Aerys killed him in stead of questioning his son. When he had barristan and Lewyn, he still used rhaegar as commander and give him all the army. Keep in mind rhaegar may use these army to depose him easily. Military power is everything. When rhaegar suggested him to contact tywin, he did. When rhaegar died, Aerys thought dornish men betrayed his son. 

Everything showed that Aerys trusted and relied on his son at this point. 

So If rhaegar wanted to release his family to DS, he can. 

But he did not. Why? 

 

 

[Ser Creighton]

1 hour ago, RumHam said:

Right, I was just pointing out that your claim it was a fan invention was factually inaccurate. 

It was on the old thread about this topic, don't really care about the details. A fan said it a fan reported it, whatever.

Anyway since you are feeling all detailed oriented and you love the small questions section so much,  how old was Jon why Alys arrived? Something I saw threw me a curve today. Wasn't looking for his age but thought I saw something strange, an odd comment.

[RumHam]

24 minutes ago, Ser Creighton said:

It was on the old thread about this topic, don't really care about the details. A fan said it a fan reported it, whatever.

Anyway since you are feeling all detailed oriented and you love the small questions section so much,  how old was Jon why Alys arrived? Something I saw threw me a curve today. Wasn't looking for his age but thought I saw something strange, an odd comment.

You'd be better off asking Rhaenys, I'm horrible with the timeline stuff. 

[Ser Creighton]

20 minutes ago, RumHam said:

You'd be better off asking Rhaenys, I'm horrible with the timeline stuff. 

You never paid attention in Timelines, Milestones and Flowcharts. Professor Sna... To soon I can't commit to the joke, best Die Hard Villain ever.

[SFDanny]

3 hours ago, purple-eyes said:

Sure, you may even assume that rhaegar only came back to KL and led the army because Aerys threatened him: boy, if you do not come back and fight for me, then your wife and children will die. Then rhaegar sadly left lyanna and went back since he did not want three of  them get killed. 

But come back to topic, my evidence is that, it looks like Aerys had a ok and trustful relationship with rhaegar during the rebellion. 

When Brandon shouted rhaegar to die, Aerys killed him in stead of questioning his son. When he had barristan and Lewyn, he still used rhaegar as commander and give him all the army. Keep in mind rhaegar may use these army to depose him easily. Military power is everything. When rhaegar suggested him to contact tywin, he did. When rhaegar died, Aerys thought dornish men betrayed his son. 

Everything showed that Aerys trusted and relied on his son at this point. 

So If rhaegar wanted to release his family to DS, he can. 

But he did not. Why? 

 

 

We know Aerys did not have a "ok and trustful" relationship with Rhaegar during the rebellion. He could not even find Rhaegar when he exiled his Hand, Lord Merryweather. Rhaegar is in hiding from his father during the first part of the rebellion even more than in hiding from the rebel lords. That is not to say that at some point the interests of father and son don't coincide. Both need the rebellion to be put down if the Targaryens are to continue to hold power. That fact, plus the fact by then Aerys holds Elia and her children hostage brings Rhaegar north when the White Bull finds him. For Aerys, the early part of the rebellion proves he needs Rhaegar and the lords who follow him if he has any hope of rallying loyalist forces to put down the four High Lords that have raised their banners against him. Their interests are in sync for the moment concerning fighting the rebels, but that does not imply Rhaegar approves of his father holding his wife and children hostage. It does not show that Rhaegar has the power once he comes north to counter any order Aerys puts forth. The answer to your question is Rhaegar could not order his family's release to Dragonstone because Aerys is still in command and he says no.

[SFDanny]

2 hours ago, Ser Creighton said:

It was on the old thread about this topic, don't really care about the details. A fan said it a fan reported it, whatever.

Anyway since you are feeling all detailed oriented and you love the small questions section so much,  how old was Jon why Alys arrived? Something I saw threw me a curve today. Wasn't looking for his age but thought I saw something strange, an odd comment.

Jon is at least sixteen and likely very close to seventeen, if not already that age, when Alys arrives. There is no telling for sure if his seventeenth name has not come by this time, but he is at least sixteen. Jon is born in 283 AC, in the last 3-4 months of the year, which is true by his name day or by Martin's "eight or nine months" difference with Daenerys, Alys arrives a good time after the turn of the year to Year 300 AC, but how close to Jon's seventeenth name day is an open question.

[Ser Creighton]

5 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Jon is at least sixteen and likely very close to seventeen, if not already that age, when Alys arrives. There is no telling for sure if his seventeenth name has not come by this time, but he is at least sixteen. Jon is born in 283 AC, in the last 3-4 months of the year, which is true by his name day or by Martin's "eight or nine months" difference with Daenerys, Alys arrives a good time after the turn of the year to Year 300 AC, but how close to Jon's seventeenth name day is an open question.

"Jon felt fifteen years old again"

He says that when Alys arrives, it's not mistake but seems like lame writing. Oh he felt 6 months to a year younger. It's a bit of a stretch for a 16 year old. Oh remember the good old days 6 months ago? He could be saying he felt his age again but then Hardhome is the longest voyage in the series and the ships could not possibly carry that much food. Nor would it take them that long to get there. Those ships have oars and should not be traveling at 1/10 a mile per day. Hardhome should be a matter of weeks. From Alys to stabbing should not be that long of a period, a month maybe and Jon should be pushing 17 at least.

Is the fifteen line a joke? Oh man remember how great things were 6 months ago before I was lord commander, that was a great year, what with Yiggy dying, My father dying, My brother dying, my missing Uncle, killing Halfhand, betraying the Wildlings, being captured by the wildlings, missing family members, Winterfell burning, 2 battles, freezing your ass off, Thorne, the death of the Old bear. Did I miss something? Did Jon go on a year long vacation to the Caribbean that I don't know about when he was 15?

 

[purple-eyes]

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Jon is at least sixteen and likely very close to seventeen, if not already that age, when Alys arrives. There is no telling for sure if his seventeenth name has not come by this time, but he is at least sixteen. Jon is born in 283 AC, in the last 3-4 months of the year, which is true by his name day or by Martin's "eight or nine months" difference with Daenerys, Alys arrives a good time after the turn of the year to Year 300 AC, but how close to Jon's seventeenth name day is an open question.

How did we know he was born in the last 3,4 months of the year? 

[SFDanny]

4 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

How did we know he was born in the last 3,4 months of the year? 

We are told Daenerys turns fourteen when Jhiqui first notices she is with child (AGoT 199), a late first trimester event in pregnancy, and Rhaego is born stillborn at full term some six months later when the comet appears in the sky. All of which puts Dany's name day in the mid-year to a little earlier or a little later range. Subtract the "eight or nine months" previous from that mid-year date and you get Jon's likely name day to be in what we would call September or October as the prime targets for his birth month. One should remember Jon celebrates his name day before Sansa's name day, and before Margaery's name day. Use those late year name days as a guideline.