Prophecy is useless

[A Faceless Poster]

A lot of effort is put into interpreting and understanding the visions and prophecies that come up within the story, but for the most part it seems kind of pointless. Any truth revealed by prophecy is so vague that its real meaning cannot be established until after the event foretold happens with most people in story never connecting the two. The major events that are foretold to characters happen in a way that they could never have prevented and their actions had no real influence on. Ultimately prophecy's impact on characters is to make them paranoid or make choices with disastrous effects based on it; such as Daenerys always wondering who the perfumed Seneschal is or the Targaryens ruining themselves trying to rebirth dragons or the prince that was promised. The only benefit ever of prophetic vision is the Targaryens escaping the doom, but even that is questionable considering how unreliable the history is in ASOIAF. Trying to accurately interpret prophecy as a reader either results in a form of thinking as paranoid and faulty as characters who try the same, or results in a fatalistic outlook that makes a series derived from point of view perspectives and choices nonsensical. 

[Raisin' Bran]

Is there a question you are posing or is this a rant?

[WhitewolfStark]

12 minutes ago, A Faceless Poster said:

A lot of effort is put into interpreting and understanding the visions and prophecies that come up within the story, but for the most part it seems kind of pointless. Any truth revealed by prophecy is so vague that its real meaning cannot be established until after the event foretold happens with most people in story never connecting the two. The major events that are foretold to characters happen in a way that they could never have prevented and their actions had no real influence on. Ultimately prophecy's impact on characters is to make them paranoid or make choices with disastrous effects based on it; such as Daenerys always wondering who the perfumed Seneschal is or the Targaryens ruining themselves trying to rebirth dragons or the prince that was promised. The only benefit ever of prophetic vision is the Targaryens escaping the doom, but even that is questionable considering how unreliable the history is in ASOIAF. Trying to accurately interpret prophecy as a reader either results in a form of thinking as paranoid and faulty as characters who try the same, or results in a fatalistic outlook that makes a series derived from point of view perspectives and choices nonsensical. 

*slow clap*

This is often GRRM's point in his other writings--that visions and dreams are pointless and more often affect the characters in a negative light than a positive one, causing them to do things that are not in their best interest or even downright horrendous all for the sake of fulfilling a "prophesy" that they were once told. The way he writes, following prophesy is a dead end that leads to little more than death and self-destruction. The theme, while present in certain stories moreso than others, is most definitely the ultimate point of And Seven Times Never Kill Man, which IMO seems to be the basis for what Stannis' arc will end up finishing at--which the TV show in retrospect kinda adapted but in a very poor manner.
 

Spoiler

It's likely that this is the point of Shireen's burning. Because of a prophesy you kill your own future. In And Seven Times Never Kill Man, you essentially get a bunch of Queen's Men Rhllorist-like colonists (best way to describe it to someone who hasn't read the story) get sent false visions telling them to burn all their food and kill all their children to satisfy their god, who will then turn winter into spring and ensure their conquest over an entire planet.

Instead, it causes them to starve to death in winter and ensures that no future generations of humans will survive on the planet from this colony.

And the visions were being sent by Children of the Forest-like aliens whom the Rhllorists had been devastating by destroying the forest pyramids that they worshiped as gods--and went insane with the destruction of their pyramid. A group of survivors from one of the destroyed pyramids befriends a Samwell Tarly-like trader and comes up with the idea of mind hacking the leader of the R'hllorists to see visions of their god telling him, well, to burn their food and hang their children. In the end the Samwell Tarly figure wonders if he was right to let the aliens whom he befriended kill all those people, or if the evil that he felt those people made him believe in again (he had thought evil didn't exist until meeting these colonists) and the genocide they were enacting on the COTF-like aliens was worth a similar like genocide on them that killed innocent children, in order to stop the destruction and killings of the colonists.

It ends on a bit of a downer note and a dark philosophical question that lets you think and try and come to a decision yourself on whether you can live with the costs of Total Warfare. It's almost like the debate on whether dropping the Atomic Bomb on Japan was for the better or worse. There's really no right or wrong answer, and it allows for there to be a two-sided debate on the issue, rather than painting a clear right and wrong dichotomy.

One can see the potential in this from the Stannis arc we got there, just mostly ignored by the show beyond the question: "Isn't it horrible that for a prophesy, Stannis killed his own daughter?!?!!" which only scratches the surface of the issue, and not even very deep on that level.

Interpretation of prophesy or visions in Martin's writings is often mankind shooting itself in its own foot... repeatedly with a semi-automatic. The prophesy--even if it is true--will usually come true without the people pursuing its involvement, and even then only in an ironic or negative manner.

Which is why when I read theories about Azor Ahai, and who he/she might really be--I think the fans are missing the larger point of the prophesy's inclusion. That it's meant to show how wasting one's time on something like a prophesy/visions/etc. can be harmful and destructive to you and everyone around you--rather than beneficial (a common theme Martin likes to explore). Belief in the necessity of prophesy therefore allows one to be off the "moral hook" so to speak and do horrendous acts with the added addendum of "the ends justify the means". We already sorta have it built into the series to start with: the Targaryens believed in the prophesy of their "Prince that was Promised", and as you pointed out, they inbred and introduced a tendency towards insanity into the gene pool, forced incestuous marriages (Aerys & Rhaella being the prime example, Aegon IV & Naerys another), and the search for the completion of this particular prophesy likely led to a war that ended in the near total destruction of their house. Only time will tell if Daenerys (and any others who might take the Targ name) is a true "comeback" for them or if she's a "dead cat bounce" for the family.

[WhitewolfStark]

Martin's view of visions/prophesy in his other writings comes across to me as a kind of evolution of the old Renaissance view of visions/prophesy. In Renaissance literature, prophesy would come true only ironically. The best example being Calderon's Life is a Dream. In that a King has the natal chart done for his heir shortly after his birth by an astrologer. The natal chart comes back saying that the young Prince will one day lead a rebellion that will overthrow the King. Not wanting that to happen, the King sends his infant son and heir to grow up in a tower all by himself, with only the occasional guard for company. The King further simply spreads word that his son died in infancy, and since his wife is dead, and he's older, it's assumed that there'll be no more children. So the King's closest relatives begin plotting to secure themselves for taking the throne upon the death of the King.

Meanwhile the Prince grows up and proves to be rather wild in nature, because the King spent no effort in raising the boy. Frankly it's amazing the boy can speak given the backstory we're given. But of course this wildness is balanced with a "hint" of nobility within his wildness, because god forbid a character of noble birth not be depicted as having an inherent nobility of spirit that even the most uncouth of upbringings can't choke out of their systems.

In any case, when the plotting cousins who want the throne for themselves decide to press the issue with the King to choose a successor as he enters his old age, the King admits the truth. Each cousin thinking that they could manipulate and use the Prince as a puppet so as to achieve an easier coup than seizing power themselves, insist on the Prince returning.

The Prince (who doesn't know he's a Prince by the way) is then collected from his desolate tower, drugged, and brought to a palace where he wakes up clean and washed and being waited on by servants who call him Prince. Convinced that he is living a dream, the Prince behaves as wildly as he did in his desolate tower--even accidentally committing a defenestration. Seeing his son's behavior, the King orders for his son to be sent back to the tower.

This of course goes as well for the Prince's sanity as might be expected.

Needless to say, after a bunch of sub-plots develop, the Prince does in fact end up leading a rebellion against his father (while unsure whether it's all a dream or not) and deposes him, but this is because his father's been a complete and total prick to him all his life.

The father inadvertently created the future that he tried to avoid. It's the common idea in prophesy going back to at least Oedipus, but it's done here to emphasize that had the King left prophesy alone and done his job as a parent, he wouldn't have created the situation he wanted to avoid in the first place, while in something like Oedipus, we're reminded that we mere mortals cannot possibly fathom the workings of the Gods, because disobeying the gods is a surefire way to get killed, yessiree.

Martin takes it a step further by showing the futility and idiocy of prophesy/visions. While the Renaissance might portray those who chase prophesy as misguided or foolish, Martin would instead have us see in full detail the damage they cause along the way and bring about and justify away in the name of prophesy. It's taking the Renaissance view to a bit of a bleaker tone IMO.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Well, duh, that's the classical way to utilize a prophecy in a story. You hear it, it's about you, and you don't find out what they actually mean until the very (usually bitter) end. That's how the story has been told since always. From Sophocles, to Shakespeare, to Martin. Contrary to the widespread belief, GRRM is not the Great Defier of Tropes.

[Philokles]

As those above have said that is how prophecy works in stories. It was also often the case in the real world, where oracles were deliberately vague so that they could never be proven wrong, as what they said could be twisted to fit any outcome.

[Grissom]

Prophecies are are just something to move the story forward thanks to idiots like Rhaegar Targaryen who believe in them.

[Knight Of Winter]

Stories where the plot is determined by a prophecy are pretty boring and often ring of a lazy writing. That's one of the things I love about ASOIAF: each and every prophecy is defied, subverted or delivered in some completely unexpected way no one could have thought of:

Rhaego is Stallion that mounts the world (dosh khaleen) --> Rheago is killed as an infant

Rhaegar's 3 children consitute 3 headed dragon (Rhaegar) --> some of them are killed by the war Rhaegar ignored as less important compared to prophecy (sort of self-defeating prophecy)

Stannis is Azor Ahai (Melisandre) --> he's obviously not

Aerys's and Rhaela's descendant is PTWP (Ghost of the High Heart) --> it's not remotely clear who exactly (s)he is, and the leading candidate is the one whom nobody knows is a Targaryen

Dany will be betrayed three times (Undying) --> she spends much of the time worrying about potentially non-existant treacheries , and suspecting her advisors

anything that Quiathe says --> we're not sure even if Quiathe wants to help or deter Dany, or why is she speaking so cryptically (e.g. instead of Beware o perfumed seneschal she could have said Green Grace will lead Harpies against you). Thus, anything she says should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[kimim]

There is such a thing as prophecy in the novels, the way there is not in our world. Jojen has green dreams. These green dreams do come true. Maggy the Frog correctly predicts whom Cersei will marry, and how many children she will have. She is also right in implying that these won't be Robert's kids. Ghost of High Heart is correct on prophecies. Dany at HotU sees stuff she could not possibly see in rl, including the RW. Mel sees Jon surrounded by skulls, and warns him.

That means characters are right to worry about prophecies. Maggy the Frog predicted too many things that came true for Cersei (or the reader) to dismiss what she had to say as lies. If GRRM wanted readers to dismiss prophecies, he would not have had the Ghost of High Heart predict the RW. The question is not "are prophecies true," as they often are, but "can characters do anything about them?" It seems they can't. Characters are often told what truly will come to pass, and they must live with that knowledge, accepting the fact that they can do nothing to change what is fated to happen.

[Knight Of Winter]

51 minutes ago, kimim said:

That means characters are right to worry about prophecies. Maggy the Frog predicted too many things that came true for Cersei (or the reader) to dismiss what she had to say as lies. If GRRM wanted readers to dismiss prophecies, he would not have had the Ghost of High Heart predict the RW. 1) The question is not "are prophecies true," as they often are, but "can characters do anything about them?" It seems they can't. 2) Characters are often told what truly will come to pass, and they must live with that knowledge, accepting the fact that they can do nothing to change what is fated to happen.

I agree with 1), but not with 2). Characters are almost never told of what will truly come to pass, in fact most of the time people will assume propehcy means something completely different than what it actually means. Take a look at an examples you provided:

Jojen has green dreams - yet he in often unable to comprehend them correctly. When he, for example, tells Alebelly that sea will kill him - Allebelly stops bathing. He certainly wasn't straightforwardly told of his future.

Maggy the Frog - oh yes, Cersei was very much able to change Maggy's "prophecy". For example, if she hadn't intentionally aborted the child she had with Robert, she would have had 4 children instead of three. Had she treated Tyrion and later Jaime with a little more decency, neither of them would have any reason to be the valonqar (self-fulfilling prophecy).

Ghost of the High Heart - who tells BWB of her highly vague and symbolic visions. BWB is unable to do anything about it because they don't know who does Ghost refer to (really, what could Beric&co make out of "resurrected fish" that Ghpost spoke of? Techically she is correct, but practically her words are useless because noone understand them) Similar to Jojen example.

HotU - here, actual prophecies are mixed with false visions and possible prophecies. Once again, the visions themselves are often too symbolic for anyone present to understand them (how would Dany undestand whom does king wih the wolf's head represent?)

Mel's warning - which came to pass for the exact reason that Jon ignored Mel's words (even when she offered to tell him exact names of his enemies), not because it was inevitable.

 

All in all, I don't think there was a single time in ASOIAF where a character had clear knowledge of the future, tried to stop it and failed because "you can't fight fate".

[kimim]

19 minutes ago, Knight Of Winter said:

Maggy the Frog - oh yes, Cersei was very much able to change Maggy's "prophecy". For example, if she hadn't intentionally aborted the child she had with Robert, she would have had 4 children instead of three. Had she treated Tyrion and later Jaime with a little more decency, neither of them would have any reason to be the valonqar (self-fulfilling prophecy).

Totally debatable, but I think the prophecies are simply visions of what will happen. That, of course, takes into account what people will do. Maggy's "you will have three kids" is a vision into the future, and takes into account Cersei's decision to abort Robert's children. So sure, Cersei could have decided to have both Robert and Jaime's kids. Then the prophecy would have been something like "you will have six children, some by Robert," but in prophet speech. 

I think this makes Cersei's story powerful: YES her children will die and she will lose all she held dear. She has to live with the knowledge, and accept that there is nothing she can do about it. Whatever she does works for, not against the prophecy, as the prophecy is taking into account everything she will do to counter it. Timeline can't be changed. The human desire, of course, is to do something to change it when it's as nasty as Cersei's is.

[Knight Of Winter]

14 minutes ago, kimim said:

Totally debatable, but I think the prophecies are simply visions of what will happen. That, of course, takes into account what people will do. Maggy's "you will have three kids" is a vision into the future, and takes into account Cersei's decision to abort Robert's children. So sure, Cersei could have decided to have both Robert and Jaime's kids. Then the prophecy would have been something like "you will have six children, some by Robert," but in prophet speech. 

I think this makes Cersei's story powerful: YES her children will die and she will lose all she held dear. She has to live with the knowledge, and accept that there is nothing she can do about it. Whatever she does works for, not against the prophecy, as the prophecy is taking into account everything she will do to counter it. Timeline can't be changed. The human desire, of course, is to do something to change it when it's as nasty as Cersei's is.

On the contrary, this, IMO, makes Cersei's story the opposite of powerful. Instead of making a story where actions have consequences and where characters influence and shape the story (which is what I think GRRM is doing), this would make characters simple pawns of fate. Whatever she is, however she behaves, whatever relationships she forms - it ultimately doesn't matter, because fate already decided everything for her. This makes all of Cersei's character and choices completely irrelevant and utterly de-powers her.

 

For me at least (and I suspect for most others), it's much more interesting to see a character trying, making decisions and ultimately failing due to her bad choices; than character failing because it was prophesied so.

[purple-eyes]

They are useless. That is why the show cut almost all of them. 

[kimim]

29 minutes ago, Knight Of Winter said:

For me at least (and I suspect for most others), it's much more interesting to see a character trying, making decisions and ultimately failing due to her bad choices; than character failing because it was prophesied so.

...but she is failing due to her bad choices. That the prophecy knows what the future will be doesn't mean that the people involved never had free will. Maggy knows Melara will die. That Maggy can see the future doesn't mean Cersei is blameless for Melara's death. Cersei had free will. Being the person she is, she allows Melara to die. She is guilty.

 

[BalerionTheCat]

Yes, "a prophecy is like a treacherous woman ..." Some prophecies are difficult to interpret, and to defeat. But others should have been easier, but were ignored anyway.

Maggy's prophecy was clear. And Cersei could have easily defeated it. First by avoiding the first part: the death of her friend this same night. Afterward, it was her attitude to Tyrion, and to everyone in general, which put herself and her children in danger. In case of Tyrion, it is the knowledge of the prophecy, which steered the events to the prophecy accomplishment. So yes, prophecies are generally bad in the inexperienced hands. But it is their purpose in Fantasy. Maggy's prophecy makes Cersei more stupid and foolish than ever.

IMO, it doesn't make the future decided beforehand. But it justifies some knowledgeable people, like Bloodraven (and I would say Rhaegar, even if most will disagree), their actions, current or past.

[purple-eyes]

19 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Yes, "a prophecy is like a treacherous woman ..." Some prophecies are difficult to interpret, and to defeat. But others should have been easier, but were ignored anyway.

Maggy's prophecy was clear. And Cersei could have easily defeated it. First by avoiding the first part: the death of her friend this same night. Afterward, it was her attitude to Tyrion, and to everyone in general, which put herself and her children in danger. In case of Tyrion, it is the knowledge of the prophecy, which steered the events to the prophecy accomplishment. So yes, prophecies are generally bad in the inexperienced hands. But it is their purpose in Fantasy. Maggy's prophecy makes Cersei more stupid and foolish than ever.

IMO, it doesn't make the future decided beforehand. But it justifies some knowledgeable people, like Bloodraven (and I would say Rhaegar, even if most will disagree), their actions, current or past.

Actually only after met children of forest outside wall, bloodraven started to work as greenseer. Look at the world by wood and raven. 

When bloodraven chose to fight for daeron, killed daemon and his twins, or killed later blackfyre, he did not have access to these knowledges or destinies or whatever. 

In other words, he did not do these for prophecy. 

[BalerionTheCat]

36 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

Actually only after met children of forest outside wall, bloodraven started to work as greenseer. Look at the world by wood and raven. 

When bloodraven chose to fight for daeron, killed daemon and his twins, or killed later blackfyre, he did not have access to these knowledges or destinies or whatever. 

In other words, he did not do these for prophecy. 

The Blackfyres was a long time ago. He met the CotF after, and became a greenseer. The CotF who delivered the prophecy to king Jaehaerys II.

I saw your birth, and that of your lord father before you.

Why was Bloodraven looking in the Stark family so long ago?

[kimim]

IMO, it doesn't make the future decided beforehand. But it justifies some knowledgeable people, like Bloodraven (and I would say Rhaegar, even if most will disagree), their actions, current or past.

 

Readers have near-perfect hindsight. The characters in the story don't. imo for them, the future is decided; the prophet is simply seeing what will happen. Take Melara's death. She was fated to die that night, and visiting Maggy was a necessary condition for her death. As far as Cersei showing self control: She can't. She is an impulsive, arrogant, dim-witted sociopath. Her character flaws and mental illness doom Melara.

Look at the Ghost of High Heart's prophecy on the RW. She is simply describing what she sees/hears. The readers can think of ways of averting the tragedy. The Brotherhood could figure out what she's talking about, send someone to warn Robb, etc. They don't. In this timeline RW is going to happen.

I see prophecy as unavoidable, sort of like telling a patient that they have a terminal illness which will kill them in eighteen months. Interest lies in how people face that diagnosis.

 

[The Arthur Smith]

The thing i really love Martin's twist and take on prophecy is that all prophecy are not straightforward. The problem doesn't lies on the prophecy itself, but rather the user who interpret the prophecy.  People who interpret to suit their agenda such as Melisandre with Stannis being Azoi Ahai. It wouldn't surprise me if Martin also demonstrate the twist that Jon isn't Azoi Ahai as well, just to show who is who according to such prophecy is pointless to fulfill one's expectation and desire. In fact, there are so many of us theorize on who's Azoi Ahai with many possibilities to consider, but in the end of the series, all the theory might as well be null, for that GRMM wanted to explore the uselessness on prophecy.

Furthermore, unlike many series like Harry Potter who used prophecy to determine their story and establish what has been given with many obvious, Martin used them to explain a character's behavior and action. Characters who were influence by such prophecy, but result in devastating outcomes. Cersei was heavily inflicted by Maggi's prophecy that this is the turning point to her paranoia and callous treatment toward the Tyrells and Tyrion; Rhaegar used the Prince that was Promise prophecy as a escapism from his melancholic life and bitter relationship with his father and in the end, it cost not only his life, but also his family's life to be brutally kill and the Targaryens dynasty to collapse; same idea with Mlisandre, she became a devout R'hllor convert as a escapism from her dark past and if you take away her religion, she will become a vulnerable person once again. Many red priests only believe Dany to be Azoi Ahai due to her Targaryens blood and dragon pets and thus she will be the one to defeat the Other and save Westeros, but in end she will only bring fire and blood. Overall, like many people state, prophecy is not there to predict the future for the sake of good or bad; merely there to affect the character's mentality and what outcome will it bring.
 

[purple-eyes]

1 hour ago, BalerionTheCat said:

The Blackfyres was a long time ago. He met the CotF after, and became a greenseer. The CotF who delivered the prophecy to king Jaehaerys II.

I saw your birth, and that of your lord father before you.

Why was Bloodraven looking in the Stark family so long ago?

According to app, He and children of forest were waiting for the birth of bran and they knew he is the next greenseer. 

This is why he is interested in stark family. But this happened after he left the wall. He left in 252. And ned was born later than this. Jaehaerys ii arranged marriage of Aerys and rhaella, also happened after this. 

What I am saying is, those he did before, such as kinslaying, had nothing to do with these. 

Some people claimed that bloodraven knew savior will be from aerys's line, so he chose to fight for daeron. This seems to be a stretch.