DanteGabriel Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Weird rift between Trump people and Breitbart over a reporter's accusation that Trump's campaign manager manhandled her and bruised her arm. Trump's campaign denies everything, accuses her of making it up, and Trump-friendly Breitbart is very divided over it. Police report has been filed. We'll see where this goes. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/michelle-fields-charges-corey-lewandowski-trump/473388/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamMe90 Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 4 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said: Weird rift between Trump people and Breitbart over a reporter's accusation that Trump's campaign manager manhandled her and bruised her arm. Trump's campaign denies everything, accuses her of making it up, and Trump-friendly Breitbart is very divided over it. Police report has been filed. We'll see where this goes. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/michelle-fields-charges-corey-lewandowski-trump/473388/ We'll only see where it goes if any one of us actually follows up on this breaking news story. Will any of us really do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Kasich just did something very revealing of his true colors and also very dumb strategically and tactically http://www.vox.com/2016/3/11/11206378/florida-ohio-2016-polls-kasich-rubio TLDR, Rubio's campaign said on CNN that their supporters in Ohio should vote for Kasich and that Kasich's supporters in FL should vote for Rubio. Kasich took that Olive branch and lit it on fire, saying that he was going to win Ohio without Rubio's help and that Rubio should win FL without his help. But Kasich has stated before that he knows his only hope is winning a contested convention. So this is tactically dumb for a couple reasons. 1. he'll need Rubio's supporters to pledge to him, if he's trying to scoop up delegates, this makes that much less likely 2. if he doesn't help Rubio win Florida, and Trump wins it, it becomes incredibly likely Trump will win an outright majority of delegates by the end of the primary, even if Kasich wins Ohio. So winning Ohio is not enough to force a contested convention, Kasich needs Rubio to win FL to force a contested convention, by refusing to help, he's basically shooting himself in the foot. Also, just the general nastiness towards a potential ally who recognizes the only winning strategy says a lot about what Kasich is really like, certainly not the nice guy persona the media has coronated him with this cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Well you do have to consider the fact that they were only in the Senate together for 2 years, so there aren't going to be that many key votes. I'm sure there is a list some where that compares their votes from 01-07 on legislation that was brought before both chambers that could include more. But that's beside the point I was trying to make. Just looking at the percentage of times two people from the same side of the asile voted the same can be rather misleading. It's helpful in a general sense, but it doesn't actually tell you that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, lokisnow said: Kasich just did something very revealing of his true colors and also very dumb strategically and tactically http://www.vox.com/2016/3/11/11206378/florida-ohio-2016-polls-kasich-rubio TLDR, Rubio's campaign said on CNN that their supporters in Ohio should vote for Kasich and that Kasich's supporters in FL should vote for Rubio. Kasich took that Olive branch and lit it on fire, saying that he was going to win Ohio without Rubio's help and that Rubio should win FL without his help. But Kasich has stated before that he knows his only hope is winning a contested convention. So this is tactically dumb for a couple reasons. 1. he'll need Rubio's supporters to pledge to him, if he's trying to scoop up delegates, this makes that much less likely 2. if he doesn't help Rubio win Florida, and Trump wins it, it becomes incredibly likely Trump will win an outright majority of delegates by the end of the primary, even if Kasich wins Ohio. So winning Ohio is not enough to force a contested convention, Kasich needs Rubio to win FL to force a contested convention, by refusing to help, he's basically shooting himself in the foot. Also, just the general nastiness towards a potential ally who recognizes the only winning strategy says a lot about what Kasich is really like, certainly not the nice guy persona the media has coronated him with this cycle. Well said. The only way to stop Trump at this point is to deny him OH and FL, or I guess if Cruz can somehow win 70% of the remaining delegates. Trump needs to win roughly 50% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination. This was not a smart move at all, and I'm actually rather shocked Kaisch would do it. He has a reputation of being one of the biggest a-holes in politics, but he's still a party man at the end of the day. Very odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Well you do have to consider the fact that they were only in the Senate together for 2 years, so there aren't going to be that many key votes. I'm sure there is a list some where that compares their votes from 01-07 on legislation that was brought before both chambers that could include more. But that's beside the point I was trying to make. Just looking at the percentage of times two people from the same side of the asile voted the same can be rather misleading. It's helpful in a general sense, but it doesn't actually tell you that much. Sure - but it isn't super indicative that they're that different. As stated before by Dean, Sanders votes 95% with democrats and that was before he turned to being an actual democrat. The idea that Sanders and Clinton are that different is not revealed by their voting record - which should say something given that Sanders is running on this idea of being so different from the establishment and so different from Clinton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrackerNeil Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Well said. The only way to stop Trump at this point is to deny him OH and FL, or I guess if Cruz can somehow win 70% of the remaining delegates. Trump needs to win roughly 50% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination. This was not a smart move at all, and I'm actually rather shocked Kaisch would do it. He has a reputation of being one of the biggest a-holes in politics, but he's still a party man at the end of the day. Very odd. But it makes sense from Kasich's point of view. At this point (he might tell himself) a contested convention is almost certain. That being the presumption, Kasich wants to be the guy best positioned to be the consensus candidate, and that means Rubio has to go out. The reasoning is sound, assuming you accept various premises (that Trump won't win a majority of delegates, that Kasich would be the candidate to whom the party turned if he didn't, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 No surprise, but techie white guys from Seattle top the list of donations to Sanders. Sanders is going to utterly obliterate Clinton in Washington state, and a lot of that is going to be because of Seattle - and a lot of THAT is going to be because of the local politics favoring socialist politicians and ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 The surest way to a contested convention relies on Trump not winning Florida or Ohio, though, so they'd need to maximize that possibility, which supposedly would be to put all the Ohio eggs in Kasich's basket and all Florida eggs with Rubio (unless Kasich magically became a serious contender there?). But I'm not sure Kasich's attitude really matters. I don't think tactical voting agreements have really worked recently, have they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Sure - but it isn't super indicative that they're that different. As stated before by Dean, Sanders votes 95% with democrats and that was before he turned to being an actual democrat. The idea that Sanders and Clinton are that different is not revealed by their voting record - which should say something given that Sanders is running on this idea of being so different from the establishment and so different from Clinton. I don't think Clinton and Sanders are that different, but just know, that 95% includes a lot of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrackerNeil Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 4 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said: The surest way to a contested convention relies on Trump not winning Florida or Ohio, though, so they'd need to maximize that possibility, which supposedly would be to put all the Ohio eggs in Kasich's basket and all Florida eggs with Rubio (unless Kasich magically became a serious contender there?). But I'm not sure Kasich's attitude really matters. I don't think tactical voting agreements have really worked recently, have they? Probably not. I think that the GOP electorate has demonstrated this year that it doesn't care about a lot of things believed in by party elites, among them Marco Rubio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Altherion Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Sure - but it isn't super indicative that they're that different. As stated before by Dean, Sanders votes 95% with democrats and that was before he turned to being an actual democrat. The idea that Sanders and Clinton are that different is not revealed by their voting record - which should say something given that Sanders is running on this idea of being so different from the establishment and so different from Clinton. All it says is that the Senate does not allow socialist (even in the Scandinavian sense) laws to be voted on. The laws brought to the Senate floor allow somebody like Sanders to choose, at best, an option that is favored by somebody like Clinton. The type of law that they would disagree on would almost never make it out of committee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Tracker, Dante has the right of it. If Trump wins FL, he will likely win the nomination, or at the very least, be so close to having a majoriity that it would be difficult for the establishment to deny him at the convention. It's funny, if Cruz had any party loyalty it would have been rather easy for Cruz, Kaisch and Rubio to pool their votes strategically to deny Trump a majority. But Cruz only cares about himself. That's why he is purposely trying to screw over Rubio in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, Altherion said: All it says is that the Senate does not allow socialist (even in the Scandinavian sense) laws to be voted on. The laws brought to the Senate floor allow somebody like Sanders to choose, at best, an option that is favored by somebody like Clinton. The type of law that they would disagree on would almost never make it out of committee. That's not accurate. Sanders is more than welcome to bring all sorts of bills to the floor and has done so per his record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alguien Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 14 minutes ago, Kalbear said: No surprise, but techie white guys from Seattle top the list of donations to Sanders. Sanders is going to utterly obliterate Clinton in Washington state, and a lot of that is going to be because of Seattle - and a lot of THAT is going to be because of the local politics favoring socialist politicians and ideas. Given that my city of Seattle already has a $15 minimum wage requirement, an actual socialist on the city council, and that Washington votes by caucus (followed months later by a stupid primary that literally has no purpose), I'd say Sanders will probably win Washington. By how much, I don't know. Anecdotally, most people I've talked to seem fairly split between the two candidates, but I've seen a lot more Bernie signs posted around the city than signs for Clinton. I plan on caucusing that Saturday. Hope it won't take hours and hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrackerNeil Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Tracker, Dante has the right of it. If Trump wins FL, he will likely win the nomination, or at the very least, be so close to having a majoriity that it would be difficult for the establishment to deny him at the convention. It's funny, if Cruz had any party loyalty it would have been rather easy for Cruz, Kaisch and Rubio to pool their votes strategically to deny Trump a majority. But Cruz only cares about himself. That's why he is purposely trying to screw over Rubio in FL. I said Kasich's decision makes sense if you accept certain things. I didn't say I endorsed it. Cruz might with equal justification insist that the party should unite behind him, given that he's only 100 delegates behind Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 That socialist on the city council fucking kicks ass. I love her and I'm sad I don't get to vote for her any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 8 minutes ago, alguien said: Given that my city of Seattle already has a $15 minimum wage requirement, an actual socialist on the city council, and that Washington votes by caucus (followed months later by a stupid primary that literally has no purpose), I'd say Sanders will probably win Washington. By how much, I don't know. Anecdotally, most people I've talked to seem fairly split between the two candidates, but I've seen a lot more Bernie signs posted around the city than signs for Clinton. I plan on caucusing that Saturday. Hope it won't take hours and hours. Sanders + 20 at least in Washington is my guess. he's got the only major city and he kills in the rural areas anyway. probably going to be his biggest delegate haul of any state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sullen Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 41 minutes ago, lokisnow said: Kasich just did something very revealing of his true colors and also very dumb strategically and tactically http://www.vox.com/2016/3/11/11206378/florida-ohio-2016-polls-kasich-rubio TLDR, Rubio's campaign said on CNN that their supporters in Ohio should vote for Kasich and that Kasich's supporters in FL should vote for Rubio. Kasich took that Olive branch and lit it on fire, saying that he was going to win Ohio without Rubio's help and that Rubio should win FL without his help. But Kasich has stated before that he knows his only hope is winning a contested convention. So this is tactically dumb for a couple reasons. 1. he'll need Rubio's supporters to pledge to him, if he's trying to scoop up delegates, this makes that much less likely 2. if he doesn't help Rubio win Florida, and Trump wins it, it becomes incredibly likely Trump will win an outright majority of delegates by the end of the primary, even if Kasich wins Ohio. So winning Ohio is not enough to force a contested convention, Kasich needs Rubio to win FL to force a contested convention, by refusing to help, he's basically shooting himself in the foot. Also, just the general nastiness towards a potential ally who recognizes the only winning strategy says a lot about what Kasich is really like, certainly not the nice guy persona the media has coronated him with this cycle. 1. Kasich 's spokesperson stated that Rubio would lose Florida, not win it (without his help)... that's considerably more antagonistic. 2. I'm personally not shocked by him refusing to make deals and play dirty, even if it's to stop a candidate like Trump, it fits his above-it-all character perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, Kalbear said: That's not accurate. Sanders is more than welcome to bring all sorts of bills to the floor and has done so per his record. In theory yes, but it's unlikely to happen on some of his more outlandish ideas. 5 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said: I said Kasich's decision makes sense if you accept certain things. I didn't say I endorsed it. Cruz might with equal justification insist that the party should unite behind him, given that he's only 100 delegates behind Trump. OK fair point. Also, here is a great break down of the different paths to a contested convention: http://onpoint.wbur.org/2016/03/10/election-2016-donald-trump-gop-convention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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