How do some people honestly think Ramsay wrote the pink letter?

[Greywater-Watch]

The puzzle to find out the identity of the author of the Pink Letter follows several strategies:

• the exclusion of possible authors by finding information given in the Pink Letter not accessible to the suspected author
• the appearance of the Letter 
  • pink wax seal obviously without sigil stamped on
  • the word "bastard" written outside
  • the ink used
  • the handwriting
  • the writing style and wording
• the motive/intention of the letter (obviously to provoke Jon Snow to a reaction)
• the possibility to write and send such a letter to CB
  • if it was not written at CB: the possession of (or access to) a raven trained to fly to CB
  • access to paper, ink, wax
  • the intelligence/wits to write such a letter

None of these have lead to a waterproof answer to the problem until now (nor will I be able to give such).

Some thoughts on the first point:

There are three locations harbouring main actors (and thus Information) to be considered; I only attribute main actors to the locations, I consider important as to their in depth knowledge:

• Castle Black (main actors: Jon Snow, Melisandre)
• The crofters village (main actors: Stannis, Arnolf Karstark)
• Winterfell (main actors: Mance Rayder, Ramsey Bolton, Roose Bolton, Wyman Manderly)

But these locations are not strictly isolated, characters or ravens move between them, and thus information is exchanged:

• Jon Snow sent a letter of warning concerning Arnolf Karstark's intended treason to Stannis, to Deepwood Motte, Tycho Nestori then brings this letter to Stannis, who reads it at the beginning of the WOW chapter "Theon"
• Tycho Nestoris and the two Night Watch men, Jon gave him as guides, have information from CB (arrival of Selyse, Shireen, possibly update on the situation of the Wildlings). If I recall correctly, Tycho leaves CB before Melisandre and Jon decide to send Mance on a mission to Winterfell. So this information Tycho cannot have passed to Stannis.
• Theon Greyjoy was informed about Mance Rayder's mission at Winterfell, he changes location between Winterfell and the crofter's village
• Arnolf Karstark' maester sent a raven from the crofter's village to Winterfell

One major problem to know, who could have been in the possession of which information is that we do not know precisely, when in the timeline the last Jon chapter in ADWD takes place or - even more precisely - when the Pink Letter has been written. If the letter has been written late, e.g. after Theon's arrival at the crofters village, the raven send by Karstark to Winterfell could have carried a lot of information to the Boltons. If I remember correctly, Theon blurted out practically everything he knew in front of Asha, whch may have been overheard by a Karstark man. The time window to put this into a letter would have been very limited though, as Tycho Nestoris urged to be received by Stannis at once, and Stannis probably did not let much time elapse before reading Jon's letter revealing Karstark's illoyalty.

But even Stannis could have chosen to send some information to the Boltons at Winterfell (possessing two ravens trained to fly to Winterfell) to provoke Roose or Rasey to do something stupid, and this information we might find in the Pink Letter, if it was written by Ramsay Bolton.

But however we turn it, there is no waterproof argument to exclude Stannis or Ramsay or Theon ast eh author of the Pink Letter, based on the non-accessibility of information. Taking futher into account that some of the things said in the letter (suggesting the presence of Melisandre, Selyse, Shireen at CB) might be just a good guess of the letter's author.

To close this comment of mine: why are so many people speculating against the obvious, i.e. he letter says it was written by Ramsay, so it should be by Ramsay. Has it ever been a strategy of GRRM to mislead us in such a way?

[black_hart]

1 hour ago, YOVMO said:

i can't imagine what reason you have for fighting so vociferously against this when it is fairly clear that "crow" is a term that the free folk use for the NW in the same way that wildlings is a term that westerosi use for free folk but it isn't textual because for someone who is trying to making a case based how an argument proceeds your own has only been "no that's not right nah nah nah I'm not listening" and you have no where supplied any evidence.

You are fighting strawmen here. Of course the free folk refer to them as crows, a lot, but it is in no way as exclusive as you and others claim it is. It is in fact so common that the Lord Commander himself tells Jon:

Quote

"Robb will rule, you will serve. Men will call you a crow. Him they'll call Your Grace. Singers will praise every little thing he does, while your greatest deeds all go unsung." ACoK Jon I

The men that will call Robb "Your Grace" are apparently not free folk, right? And these are the men that will call Jon a crow.

When Arya travels around with Yoren they get to hear:

Quote

"It's sweetcorn, better'n a stinking old black bird like you deserves," one of them answered roughly. "You get out of our field now, and take these sneaks and stabbers with you, or we'll stake you up in the corn to scare the other crows away." ACoK Arya III

Again in Arya IV:

Quote

"The knight in the spiked helm laughed. "The crow gives us his word.""

In Bran II, same book, a northern noble says:

Quote

"Hother wanted ships. "There's wildlings stealing down from the north, more than I've ever seen before. They cross the Bay of Seals in little boats and wash up on our shores. The crows in Eastwatch are too few to stop them, and they go to ground quick as weasels. It's longships we need, aye, and strong men to sail them. The Greatjon took too many. Half our harvest is gone to seed for want of arms to swing the scythes.""

Arya as Cat of the Canals refers to Dareon:

Quote

With the coin his singing brought him, the crow had transformed himself into a peacock.

You all have the tools to do the search yourself... but nay.

[GloubieBoulga]

On 27/12/2016 at 0:41 AM, Amris said:

First of all the letter is not dialogue, Sweetsunray. So Ramsay does not necessarily show the same speech patterns in it as when he speaks.

And you still do not take into account that the letter is meant to provoke Jon. So your 'word avoidance' theory does not apply. On the contrary: in the Ramsay uses words that he himself would find provoking. Like whore. Bastard.

And of course he demands in the letter. He needs to set up a justification for the whole north to see why he has to 'deal' with Jon. So he must set up demands that are arguably somewhat reasonable. At the same time he has to make sure the demands are rejected by Jon, thus the language.

To me the letter makes perfect sense from Ramsay's point of view. In fact it is a masterpiece of manipulation.

 

 

I don't think so. If you want honestly give a value to the words and who and when and why they are employed, you must look all the context in all the occurrences. 

"Crow" for NW is very majoritary a popular term. Jon was educated in a castle. Ned never called his brother (and all the NW) a crow not because he don't know the word, but because it is to depreciative to call what he considers as a "noble way" (and his proper blood) with a popular and depreciative term. So Jon has no reason to know this term before he arrive at CB and pass time with his new brothers (at the beginning, he stay isolated, he refuses to mix with the others nightwatchers)^) ç 

At the court, we see noble people, they quasi never speak about the NW and with their noble education they have no reason to employ even just "crow" who sound for them like an insult. The common word for educated and non ennemy people is "black brother" (Arya, Bran, Jon, Samwell, Tyrion, Davos, Catelyn...).

Nightwatchers are the only neirbourghs of Wildlings, and their ennemies for centuries : the depreciative "black crow" is emphasis and became just very common for them, so common that they can say it without insulting, as Tormund does with Jon in ADWD.

We have no occasion to see popular people in the south using this expression. Oh just one, in ACOK, when Arya is travelling with Yoren : some peasant called them "black bird". WHAT ???? "black bird" is synonym, yes, but NOT exactly "black crow". But the complete context is :

Quote

"It's sweetcorn, better'n a stinking old black bird like you deserves," one of them answered roughly. "You get out of our field now, and take these sneaks and stabbers with you, or we'll stake you up in the corn to scare the other crows away."

Oh yes, the peasant make a wordplay with "crows", with double sense. Aaaaah but no, he doesn't say exactly "black crow". 

Yes, I answer this is difference between the letter and the spirit. 

In the letter, "black crow" is employed as an insult, the same way than "bastard" :Jon is an ennemy for Ramsay. He also received a popular education for years (he fights like a butcher, for example, not like a future knight or future lord; and he is just learning to read and write). 

So "black crow" can be used by Ramsay without being out of signification. 

But after all, if "black crow" is strongly exclusively a wildling term, Stannis and Theon are just excluded as authors for this letter

[YOVMO]

15 minutes ago, black_hart said:

You are fighting strawmen here. Of course the free folk refer to them as crows, a lot, but it is in no way as exclusive as you and others claim it is. It is in fact so common that the Lord Commander himself tells Jon:

The men that will call Robb "Your Grace" are apparently not free folk, right? And these are the men that will call Jon a crow.

When Arya travels around with Yoren they get to hear:

Again in Arya IV:

In Bran II, same book, a northern noble says:

Arya as Cat of the Canals refers to Dareon:

You all have the tools to do the search yourself... but nay.

I can't believe I am even responding to you. Read the text from the letter:

Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it

in every case you mention it is specifically used as a pejorative by people who have had co tact with the NW. In the letter it isn't. "Bastard" is the pejorative in the letter. "Crow" is merely used in a neutral way to refer to the nights watch. 

 

Really now im finished. If you can't read for subtlety then I can't teach you how and in the end your silly opinions and arguments don't mean much

[YOVMO]

2 minutes ago, GloubieBoulga said:

 

I don't think so. If you want honestly give a value to the words and who and when and why they are employed, you must look all the context in all the occurrences. 

"Crow" for NW is very majoritary a popular term. Jon was educated in a castle. Ned never called his brother (and all the NW) a crow not because he don't know the word, but because it is to depreciative to call what he considers as a "noble way" (and his proper blood) with a popular and depreciative term. So Jon has no reason to know this term before he arrive at CB and pass time with his new brothers (at the beginning, he stay isolated, he refuses to mix with the others nightwatchers)^) ç 

At the court, we see noble people, they quasi never speak about the NW and with their noble education they have no reason to employ even just "crow" who sound for them like an insult. The common word for educated and non ennemy people is "black brother" (Arya, Bran, Jon, Samwell, Tyrion, Davos, Catelyn...).

Nightwatchers are the only neirbourghs of Wildlings, and their ennemies for centuries : the depreciative "black crow" is emphasis and became just very common for them, so common that they can say it without insulting, as Tormund does with Jon in ADWD.

We have no occasion to see popular people in the south using this expression. Oh just one, in ACOK, when Arya is travelling with Yoren : some peasant called them "black bird". WHAT ???? "black bird" is synonym, yes, but NOT exactly "black crow". But the complete context is :

Oh yes, the peasant make a wordplay with "crows", with double sense. Aaaaah but no, he doesn't say exactly "black crow". 

Yes, I answer this is difference between the letter and the spirit. 

In the letter, "black crow" is employed as an insult, the same way than "bastard" :Jon is an ennemy for Ramsay. He also received a popular education for years (he fights like a butcher, for example, not like a future knight or future lord; and he is just learning to read and write). 

So "black crow" can be used by Ramsay without being out of signification. 

But after all, if "black crow" is strongly exclusively a wildling term, Stannis and Theon are just excluded as authors for this letter

I don't think we even need to go as far as say black crow. I think crow itself is used in the letter in a neutral way as if that's just what they call NW members where in every other case it is used as an insult 

[black_hart]

43 minutes ago, YOVMO said:

I don't think we even need to go as far as say black crow. I think crow itself is used in the letter in a neutral way as if that's just what they call NW members where in every other case it is used as an insult 

Why do you squirm so much instead of admitting your blunt statement regarding the term "crow" was wrong. Why have an argument when you can't admit where you have been wrong? And you are wrong again here, Arya or Hother don't talk out of hostility to the NW either, if you read the Melisandre POV in ADwD you will find several casual non-insulting crow references as well. She has arguably been around free folk a lot lately, but still even the watered down argument that neutral use of "crow" is specific to free folk, does not hold water.

[YOVMO]

18 minutes ago, black_hart said:

Why do you squirm so much instead of admitting your blunt statement regarding the term "crow" was wrong. Why have an argument when you can't admit where you have been wrong? And you are wrong again here, Arya or Hother don't talk out of hostility to the NW either, if you read the Melisandre POV in ADwD you will find several casual non-insulting crow references as well. She has arguably been around free folk a lot lately, but still even the watered down argument that neutral use of "crow" is specific to free folk, does not hold water.

Sorry dude, I can't. I have a minimum reading conprehension  requirement for people I discuss this series with and you do not meet that requirement. Have a very nice day.

[black_hart]

22 minutes ago, YOVMO said:

Sorry dude, I can't. I have a minimum reading conprehension  requirement for people I discuss this series with and you do not meet that requirement. Have a very nice day.

Your account might be hacked someone wrote this in your name:

Quote

 

I think the fact that it makes mention of "your black crows" is key here. At no point in any of the books do any people south of the wall refer to the NW as crows. That is a specifically wildling term for them.

 

Reading comprehension etc.  Regards!

[Scorpion92]

I believe Cantuse's Mannifesto is spot on, and it makes sense that Pink Letter is part of much grander Stannis' strategic campaign in the North.

I am also a big believer that Stannis is destined to die at the hands of Daenerys at Dragonstone when their fleets engage in a battle for the control of the island: Stannis will be returning from the North with northern fleet (mostly Manderly ships) and army to stop by on Dragonstone, his seat of power, and plan second siege of King's Landing given the weakened political situation thanks to Cersei. At the same time, Dany will want to land first on ancestral fortress of House Targaryen and launch her own invasion. This is where Dany will slay the "blue eyed king who cast no shadow with burning sword" - slaying the lie that Stannis is Azor Ahai and prophecised hero of R'hillor. And besides, that would be second time Tyrion faces Stannis on opposite battleground and wins.

And before you go and say that Stannis will not abandon the North and the Wall since he knows the real threat, I have a counter argument - Stannis cannot hope to hold the Wall against White Walkers with northmen alone, their numbers and resources depleted already after Robb's campaign. He needs Iron Throne in order to protect the realm from the real threat by sending everyone up north. No one will listen to him unless he is the only king of the realm.

So yeah, I expect Stannis to defeat Boltons and return Winterfell and the North to Stark rule. I don't think Davos will deliver Rickon to White Harbor, but to Jon and Stannis to the Wall first. Through Davos' POV we will be able to observe Skagos, its people, then Eastwatch-by-the-Sea and the situation there (we know giants and mammoths are on their way there from Jon's chapters), and finally Castle Black where they will arrive at Castle Black. I also think Patchface will be warged by either Bran or Bloodraven to kill some of Queen's men and even Queen Selyse herself, which will take out any obstacle in sacrificing Shireen for Jon's resurrection. Mel will be an important figure here.

So yeah, situation at the Wall and the North promises to be a juicy one. That is why I believe Boltons cannot win over Stannis in the books at least. Stannis has an important part to play in this story up to his death.

[The Drunkard]

5 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

And before you go and say that Stannis will not abandon the North and the Wall since he knows the real threat, I have a counter argument - Stannis cannot hope to hold the Wall against White Walkers with northmen alone, their numbers and resources depleted already after Robb's campaign. He needs Iron Throne in order to protect the realm from the real threat by sending everyone up north. No one will listen to him unless he is the only king of the realm.

This is just redundant, though. ASOS was him trying to take the throne as a means of preparing himself for the greater war, and at the end he was convinced that the strategy was wrong, and that he should instead win the greater war first and thereby prove himself worthy of the throne. That was a big, momentous moment for him (and Davos and the Wall and w/e else), and it would be silly for him to start flip-flopping on that.

In terms of numbers, if we say Stannis has 5000 men at the camp + the captive Karstarks, and that Roose has 6000 men remaining in Winterfell, even if both sides lost 25% of their men (which would be catastrophic) that'll leave the victor (if it's Stannis) with more than 8500 men. Then there are the 1000 wildlings at the Wall, the Thenns, the absent Manderly forces, and the many thousands of mercenaries that the Iron Bank money will allow Stannis to bring over. He could easily have in excess of 15000 men, which is enough to make a credible stand against the Others (and it only needs to be credible, he won't actually win).

[Aegon VII]

17 hours ago, YOVMO said:

 

Right. So Jon, who has always wanted to be a ranger, whose uncle was first ranger, who grew up in the north as a son of Eddard Stark AFTER taking his NW vows hears Dywen say that wildlings call them crows and finds it so odd he asked Maester Aemon about it. But I'm the lunatic for suggesting that the use of crows in the pink letter is a signal that it was written by a wildling. Smh. A westerosi calling men of the NW crows would be akin to the freefolk calling themselves wildlings---maybe even worse because st least to the free folk the NW are a part of their life whereas south of the neck, outside the galors, the NW are totally irrelevant 

I don't understand some People. 

I'm going to develop a full response to the thread in general here soon... but in the mean time I had to say this was just perfect.

Just to clarify to everyone else though. The point people are bringing up is about the phrase "BLACK CROWS". People might have referenced just "Crows" in previous points, lets move past it. No one besides wildlings and JS when speaking to wildlings says "black crows". Ramsay has no reason to say it and would not know the term.Yes he could have learned it torturing Mance. That makes no sense though and even if he did learn it he has no reason to use it in the letter. It only makes the reader, Jon Snow (and us), question why he would use the term. 

It makes perfect sense if Mance writes it as a "slip-up" aka a clue from GRRM for whom the author actually is. All the other language in the letter that is character specific would have been overheard by abel and the washerwomen. It makes perfect sense that Mance would try to replicate Ramsays speech, since he was pretending Ramsay wrote the letter. He would use what he heard from Theon and Ramsay. The letter supports this as most of the Ramsay specific language used was previously overheard by abel and the washerwomen.

And let's not forget, most of the letter revolves around who wrote it. I know many disagree and I'll speak more to this soon. But we all have to accept that the majority of threads are not about, "what is true and false in the Pink Letter" they are about " who wrote the Pink Letter". GRRM would have planned this. He would have given us a clue, such as the only full name in the letter, "Mance Rayder".

I'll follow up soon to defend these points.

[black_hart]

2 hours ago, Aegon VII said:

I'm going to develop a full response to the thread in general here soon... but in the mean time I had to say this was just perfect.

Just to clarify to everyone else though. The point people are bringing up is about the phrase "BLACK CROWS". People might have referenced just "Crows" in previous points, lets move past it. No one besides wildlings and JS when speaking to wildlings says "black crows". Ramsay has no reason to say it and would not know the term.Yes he could have learned it torturing Mance. That makes no sense though and even if he did learn it he has no reason to use it in the letter. It only makes the reader, Jon Snow (and us), question why he would use the term.

We have the same text at hand and manage to discuss such a point to death. If your case is the use of the phrase BLACK CROWS then fine. But it was initially presented by almost everyone making the case as if CROWS itself is wildling specific. These are not identical claims, if CROWS itself were specific, this would be a much stronger claim, yet it is wrong according to half a dozen quotations from the text, the other BLACK CROWS is indeed supported by the text but much weaker as a claim.

For a simple reason: The intensification from CROW to BLACK CROW is something that can happen anywhere someone tries to intensify a widely known term, since pleonasm is not a rhetorical device unique to free folk. You don't have to torture someone to learn it. It simply doesn't make such a crucial piece of evidence it is made out to be by proponents of Mance as author of the pink letter. E.g. all followers of the Lord of Light are daily using "the night is dark etc." which employs the same device: dark night, black crow. It should be especially easy to come up with the pleonasm BLACK CROW given that GRRM established the expression CROW CALLING RAVEN BLACK as prevalent all throughout Westeros.

[GloubieBoulga]

4 hours ago, Aegon VII said:

 

It makes perfect sense if Mance writes it as a "slip-up" aka a clue from GRRM for whom the author actually is. All the other language in the letter that is character specific would have been overheard by abel and the washerwomen.

Just admitting your hypothesis, and that "Black Crow" is an exclusive Wildling term, let push a bit the reasoning :

why Mance - as author - would imitate Ramsay in all the letter and make such a big mistake (if "black crow" is exclusive wildling, Mance who lived with the Night Watchers for years must know that fact perfectly) ? 

You call it a clue from GRRM, but a clue must be justified and not gratuitous in the narration : significate that Mance must have some reason to write "black crow" : what is that reason ?