Discussing Sansa XXIV: Forgetful North

[WolfClaw]

It was an interesting episode.

 

I would like to focus on two things on the North storyline

 

1. The show promotes the importance of the Vale army. I suspect that comes directly from the books and what Martin has told the screenwriters about the role Vale army will play in reclaiming the North, in the books.

2. The promote of the fan favorite Davos Seaworth. Unfortunately, that came at the expense of Jon and Sansa.

 

Considering the first, I would say the screenwriters could have more houses support Jon and Sansa and still show that they needed the Vale army in order to win. They could easily show that the relative strength of those house is not as great as Jon, Sansa and Davos thought at first. They could easily say that the Northern Houses suffer more loses during the War of the Five Kings and they could not contribute that many soldiers to the Stark cause. They could have shown the the Houses which are still loyal to the Starks could gather 1000 or 1500 men and still Jon and Sansa would need the help from the Vale in order to ensure victory. In that way, the Northern Houses would been portrait in a positive light and they would not need to change the Vale army plot.

 

As for the second one, in my opinion it would have been better if Davos took a back seat in this episode. Do not get me wrong, I always liked Davos since he is one of those with strong sense of honour. His character is wise and thoughtful and everyone should take into consideration his advise, whether or not he is right. However, the screenwriters made the mistake to promote Davos and downplay Jon and Sansa. I think that considering the experience of both, they could have come up with better arguments. They could have reminded how things where during the Stark rule and how things are now under Boltons. They could have reminded the Red Wedding and how all of them were betrayed, they could have even mention Boltons' infamy. If the screenwriters were so desperate to show Davos' persuasion skills it would have been better to show that all three of them taking terms in convincing the Northern Houses.

 

As for Sansa, her argument with Jon comes from their desperation and their frustration. Their efforts to rally the Northern Houses did not go as they hopped for and that puts pressure and a strain on them. Both of them will do things that they wouldn't want to do, if they had another choice. This is one of the reasons behind Jon's decision not to wait and attack now, since he believes that no other house will commit to their cause. It seems that he believes that waiting will gain them nothing and they will only lose time, even if he was the one who first suggested that they needed more men in order to take Winterfell. Sansa's mistrust of Davos has a basis if you consider that her traveling companion is Brienne, who has expressed her mistrust of him, Melisandre and their true loyalties. Brienne went so far as to express her fear for Sansa's safety around them, only to have Sansa reassure her that Jon will protect her. Also, Sansa has seen Stannis lose two battles and she heard the rumors that he killed his own brother, even if Davos had nothing to do with it.

 

Sansa made a logical decision in writing this letter. Their army is way to small, since they only secure the support from 3 Houses and 405 men. The Bolton army outnumbers theirs 2:1. Still Jon seems determined to attack than waiting and trying to gain more support. The stakes are very high here and they have no room for mistakes. In my point of view she is writing to Petyr Baelish. From her facial expressions is obvious that she is not happy about it and she regrets her decision to write that letter but it is something she must do if they want to have a chance in winning. From that part, it also becomes obvious that she did not want the help of Littlefinger and she would have preferred to fight without the help from the Vale army. She does not want to own Littlefinger a favour. This is why she did not mention this to Jon and why she lied about it in the episode “The Door”, not because she was power hungry.

 

One last thing I want to mention is that I find it strange that the loyal Houses do not commit almost all of their men. Their leaders know how the Boltons will react and what will they do to those who turn against them, if Jon and Sansa lose the battle. It is not as if the Boltons keep their tactics hidden. As a matter of fact, the Boltons make a public display of their tactics more often than not. They have the flayed man as a house sigil, for God's sake! I do not understand why did the Starks trust them in the first place or the Freys for that matter?

 

 

 

[WolfClaw]

I find Littlefinger's plot armour in both books and show increasingly frustrating. If you think about it, he has no real power other than lies, deceits and the influence that those two gain him over certain people. But those lies and deceits also makes those who suffer from them his enemies. While Varys operates behind the curtains, Littlefinger is much more straight forward on his approach, since he wants true power and that is what he tries to achieve. He has far too many enemies right now and no true friends or supporters, others than those who buys their loyalty. But, this is no true loyalty as we already know. After 5 books and almost 6 seasons in the TV series Petyr Baelish has gain only an empty castle and the title of the Lord Protector of the Vale, which gives him some leverage but not enough.

 

“Power is power” as Cersei told him in the 2^nd season episode “The North Remembers”, and we can clearly see in that scene that he has none. Right now, even Jon Snow seems to have more power than Littlefinger. Think of all the deaths of the powerful characters, from the deaths of Ned and Robb Stark to the death of Joffrey and Tywin Lannister and what consequences they had. Think of Jon's death and what consequences it had. Now think what would happened if Littlefinger was killed and what would the consequences be. Probably there would not be any consequences.

 

I bet that even Tyrells want him dead for his involvement in Joffrey's death and he is a lose end. So right now he has made the Lannisters, the Tyrells, the Starks, the Lords of Vale, who are not so happy about him, and Nestor Royce his enemies. Do I forget anyone? How on earth is he still alive? People died for less reasons in the books and the TV series.

 

Also, I do not understand how he could not know the Boltons reputation. As I mention in the previous post it is not as if the Boltons did those things in secret, they actually made a public display of them. For someone with so many informants it is not logical not to know all of these things. Now I think of it, I do not belive that you can actually need an informant to know these things about Boltons.

[Maid So Fair]

@WolfClaw I think splitting Davos, Jon and Sansa up would have made for a better dynamic perhaps. It makes sense as it allows them to cover more territory and each of them can play to their own respective strengths. Putting them together just means that someone needs to steal the show. Davos's rallying speech when trying to get to the White Harbour is pretty impressive so they probably wanted to recreate that. It's a shame that whenever a character needs to look good, everyone else is made to look like a complete moron.  

[Red Tiger]

7 hours ago, Maid So Fair said:

Desperate enough to change their original plan of gathering  support from ALL the smaller houses despite being nowhere near fulfilling that objective.what if  it snows? Majority of his army I used to even harsher climate and the rest is from the North. The sudden urgency is silly.

They're the Starks - I know that the North doesn't seem to remember shit on the show, but that should carry some street cred. It's made clear that people only follow the Boltons because theres no real alternative. With a Stark army in open rebellion against them they no longer look so strong. Sure, it's not ideal - but the alternative is Ramsay I skin people for fun Bolton. And how and why should the wildlings be restored an impatient - they finally got what they wanted and are somewhat safe beyond the Wall. They like and respect Jon. It's not like a couple of weeks will make any difference here - but it could be crucial to gathering more support. Ramsays support is unlikely to grow while Jon and Sans still have untapped potential.

The plan as formulated back at CB centres around hitting all the smaller houses and especially the Manderlys . They have done neither but suddenly theres an urgent need to march ASAP even though there clearly was time to gallivant over to the Bear Island. 

Im sorry, but you are letting idealism get in the way of reality here.

[Maid So Fair]

36 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

Im sorry, but you are letting idealism get in the way of reality here.

How so? By not wanting Jon to abandon  plan they made for literally no reason and expecting Ramsay to behave in his usual psychopathic manner?

[Red Tiger]

17 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said:

How so? By not wanting Jon to abandon  plan they made for literally no reason and expecting Ramsay to behave in his usual psychopathic manner?

I already explained how poor the situation of Jon's army is. Ramsay has the Bolton, Umber and Karstark armies. Jon has 2000 undisciplined wildlings and about 500 northerners and you want these smaller war-ravaged Northern houses to join up to fight ridiculously long odds simply because of the Stark name, which also lost some cred based on the fact that the last Stark lord did a poor job keeping his army in line and united. 

The Boltons suck, which i also acknowledged in a previous post, but so far they only punished houses that defied them and helped return castles to other houses, so we have both carrot and stick politics on The Boltons Side and on Jon's Side we have Some vague Notion of honor. If this still makes you think joining Jon's army would be appealing...i really dont know what to tell you.

 

 

 

[Maid So Fair]

17 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

I already explained how poor the situation of Jon's army is. Ramsay has the Bolton, Umber and Karstark armies. Jon has 2000 undisciplined wildlings and about 500 northerners and you want these smaller war-ravaged Northern houses to join up to fight ridiculously long odds simply because of the Stark name, which also lost some cred based on the fact that the last Stark lord did a poor job keeping his army in line and united. 

The Boltons suck, which i also acknowledged in a previous post, but so far they only punished houses that defied them and helped return castles to other houses, so we have both carrot and stick politics on The Boltons Side and on Jon's Side we have Some vague Notion of honor. If this still makes you think joining Jon's army would be appealing...i really dont know what to tell you.

 

 

 

The reasons why the Karstarks and the Umbers follow Ramsay are extremely flimsy and Lord Umber even lonely says he'll not kneel to Ramsay. Jon and Sansa have no way of knowing this particular, but they're well aware that Ramsay is a deranged psychopath. That carrot and stick was Roose's policy not his. It's entirely reasonable to expect him to screw up and piss off someone important sooner or later. He's also now lost the support of the Crown and any external legitimacy - his success depends entirely on keeping the North in check with Boltons forces alone.

If the show followed any kind of logic, the Northmen should be jumping at the first chance to take revenge against the Boltons, let alone Ramsay. Not because they love the Starks so much but because they shoukd HATE the assholes that murdered their families and countrymen.

Most importantly, however poor the Starks situation is just now it has been the same since the very moment they formulated this plan. Waiting might not make people automatically flock to their banner but there is absolutely no harm in trying. It's especially inexcusable that they're giving up before having tried the Manderlys and a word from Brienne on the Blackfish situation. There is absolutely nothing that's changed but suddenly there no more time and they have to engage Boltons in open battle, the worst option when going against numerical superiority, RIGHT NOW. BS. Like book Stannis they should be letting Ramsay come to THEM.

[Red Tiger]

16 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said:

The reasons why the Karstarks and the Umbers follow Ramsay are extremely flimsy and Lord Umber even lonely says he'll not kneel to Ramsay. Jon and Sansa have no way of knowing this particular, but they're well aware that Ramsay is a deranged psychopath. That carrot and stick was Roose's policy not his. It's entirely reasonable to expect him to screw up and piss off someone important sooner or later. He's also now lost the support of the Crown and any external legitimacy - his success depends entirely on keeping the North in check with Boltons forces alone.

If the show followed any kind of logic, the Northmen should be jumping at the first chance to take revenge against the Boltons, let alone Ramsay. Not because they love the Starks so much but because they shoukd HATE the assholes that murdered their families and countrymen.

Most importantly, however poor the Starks situation is just now it has been the same since the very moment they formulated this plan. Waiting might not make people automatically flock to their banner but there is absolutely no harm in trying. It's especially inexcusable that they're giving up before having tried the Manderlys and a word from Brienne on the Blackfish situation. There is absolutely nothing that's changed but suddenly there no more time and they have to engage Boltons in open battle, the worst option when going against numerical superiority, RIGHT NOW. BS. Like book Stannis they should be letting Ramsay come to THEM.

I never said the carrot and stick this was Ramsay's policy, I said it was the Bolton one and while we and the lords know Ramsay is nuts, so far he hasnt done anything to a lord that was loyal.

You seem to completely forget the fact that while WE know that the Umbers dont kneel to Ramsay, other houses arent in that room to see it. You are assuming the other houses know all the things we did.

The Freys were the guys who got almost all of the blame for the Red Wedding, the Boltons not so much and as has been pointed out before, the Umbers, Karstarks and Manderlies have more men combined than all of the rest of the North. If Wyman Manderly joined up then maybe theyd have a shot, but many houses are tired of all the shit they've been through and dont want to be part of yet another war even if it means revenge, especially against these odds. War breeds pain, misery, trauma and if you dont understand that some people dont wanna go through that shit again, after they spent several years recovering from one war, then you are not being logical at all.

[Maid So Fair]

10 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

I never said the carrot and stick this was Ramsay's policy, I said it was the Bolton one and while we and the lords know Ramsay is nuts, so far he hasnt done anything to a lord that was loyal.

You seem to completely forget the fact that while WE know that the Umbers dont kneel to Ramsay, other houses arent in that room to see it. You are assuming the other houses know all the things we did.

The Freys were the guys who got almost all of the blame for the Red Wedding, the Boltons not so much and as has been pointed out before, the Umbers, Karstarks and Manderlies have more men combined than all of the rest of the North. If Wyman Manderly joined up then maybe theyd have a shot, but many houses are tired of all the shit they've been through and dont want to be part of yet another war even if it means revenge, especially against these odds. War breeds pain, misery, trauma and if you dont understand that some people dont wanna go through that shit again, after they spent several years recovering from one war, then you are not being logical at all.

And they haven't even approached the Manderlys. This was pretty much the crux of their entire plan, but now Jon is throwing it to the wind for literally no reason. 

Being tired of war is a very valid reason why a Nothern lord might not want to join the Starks, even if it requires no forward thinking on their part. There will be no better opportunity to get rid of the psycho in charge and if the Northmen suffered heavier losses than more battle-ready regions it is entirely the Boltons fault for slaughtering these men. The odds are poor for now, but they're better than they've ever been since Boltons took over the North.  But that doesn't in any way explain why Jon suddenly thinks there's no point in trying. Hell, the House they're specifically talking about  - the Cerwyns -  is the one where Ramsay flayed a bunch of their people. Roose kept going on about how even losing Sansa could inspire open rebellion but now there is an actual anti-Bolton pro-Stark army everyone is like meh?

What you mention is an extremely low standard for a liege lord - well, I guess he hasn't brutally murdered anybody yet? They must have heard the rumours - about hunting women with dogs, flaying Northern lords for minor transgressions (see Cerwyns), murdering his own father, brother and mother-in-law, brutalising his wife, flaying his people. If they are in any doubt, there is the Pink Letter. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Ramsay as their overlord, even discounting everything the Boltons have done, is a huge liability. And Sansa certainly knows what he's like. You don't need a Varys level spy network to put two and two together when it comes to Ramsay. 

Since Jon has offered no strategy or plan in place of the one he inexplicably ditched, there is absolutely no reason why engaging Ramsay now rather than a few weeks later is the only or even preferred option. 

 

[Red Tiger]

13 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said:

And they haven't even approached the Manderlys. This was pretty much the crux of their entire plan, but now Jon is throwing it to the wind for literally no reason. 

Being tired of war is a very valid reason why a Nothern lord might not want to join the Starks, even if it requires no forward thinking on their part. There will be no better opportunity to get rid of the psycho in charge and if the Northmen suffered heavier losses than more battle-ready regions it is entirely the Boltons fault for slaughtering these men. The odds are poor for now, but they're better than they've ever been since Boltons took over the North.  But that doesn't in any way explain why Jon suddenly thinks there's no point in trying. Hell, the House they're specifically talking about  - the Cerwyns -  is the one where Ramsay flayed a bunch of their people. Roose kept going on about how even losing Sansa could inspire open rebellion but now there is an actual anti-Bolton pro-Stark army everyone is like meh?

What you mention is an extremely low standard for a liege lord - well, I guess he hasn't brutally murdered anybody yet? They must have heard the rumours - about hunting women with dogs, flaying Northern lords for minor transgressions (see Cerwyns), murdering his own father, brother and mother-in-law, brutalising his wife, flaying his people. If they are in any doubt, there is the Pink Letter. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that Ramsay as their overlord, even discounting everything the Boltons have done, is a huge liability. And Sansa certainly knows what he's like. You don't need a Varys level spy network to put two and two together when it comes to Ramsay. 

Since Jon has offered no strategy or plan in place of the one he inexplicably ditched, there is absolutely no reason why engaging Ramsay now rather than a few weeks later is the only or even preferred option. 

 

About them not approaching the Manderlys: They sent ravens and heard nothing back, plus the North is really big and considering they visited several places we can assume they've been at it for at least a couple of weeks.

I agree with you on Jon not even trying.

Sure they heard the rumours of Ramsay, but nothing is proven, there are tales of Boltons going around wearing the flayed skins of ancient enemies. Ramsay killed the lord Cerwyn it is true, but keep in mind that Cerwyn said he would never obey a house but the Starks, which is basiclaly treason to his new liege and the penalty for treason is death.

But also, you gotta look at generations, we are from a generation that immediately assumes that where there is smoke there is fire, these people are lords living far away from eachother and can go years within seeing one another.

" What you mention is an extremely low standard for a liege lord ", yeah, no shit, but the most important part of being a liege is being in a position of power and even without the Karstarks and Umbers, Ramsay has a ton of manpower. Ramsay was also the guy who took back WInterfell, Moat Cailin and killed countless more ironborn, so its clear that this guy is not somebody to fuck with.

The lords could easily say "you guys forged this letter", in regards to the pink letter.

 

[Vanessa16]

 

12 hours ago, Maid So Fair said:

But I'm talking about Jon. There's no reason to be desperate for a battle - waiting means their numbers are likely to grow while Ramsays ebb away and it allows them to use a strategic position.

Do you think Ramsay is just gonna sit back and give them time to gather a larger army? As soon as he's heard that they've even made camp he'll march on them. And although some think that it's stupid of him to leave Winterfell, it really isn't. Remember that he's already agreed to help the Umbers defeat the wildlings. If he doesn't help them, he'd lose their support and risk the possibility of them joning the Starks. That's why it wouldn't make sense that the Umber, Karstark and Bolton army would just hang around doing nothing when, as far as they are concerned, wildlings have invaded their home.

Jon is urgent to attack first because he knows there isn't much time until the Bolton, Karstark and Umber army attacks. He's also eager to attack first because Ramsay has Rickon, and he's probably worried that Ramsay is hurting him.

[Red Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Vanessa16 said:

 

Do you think Ramsay is just gonna sit back and give them time to gather a larger army? As soon as he's heard that they've even made camp he'll march on them. And although some think that it's stupid of him to leave Winterfell, it really isn't. Remember that he's already agreed to help the Umbers defeat the wildlings. If he doesn't help them, he'd lose their support and risk the possibility of them joning the Starks. That's why it wouldn't make sense that the Umber, Karstark and Bolton army would just hang around doing nothing when, as far as they are concerned, wildlings have invaded their home.

Jon is urgent to attack first because he knows there isn't much time until the Bolton, Karstark and Umber army attacks. He's also eager to attack first because Ramsay has Rickon, and he's probably worried that Ramsay is hurting him.

Basically this. If Ramsay knew that Jon had something even resembling an army, he would have attacked ASAP, but its just some rabble. The minute Jon gets about 4000 or so, he'll have Ramsay and his boys at his doorstep.

[watcher of the night]

11 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

Basically this. If Ramsay knew that Jon had something even resembling an army, he would have attacked ASAP, but its just some rabble. The minute Jon gets about 4000 or so, he'll have Ramsay and his boys at his doorstep.

Except that Jon has no reason to park his army in reach of Winterfell as long as he is not ready to fight. It is absurd on the first place that Davos tells them where to camp: Davos who is a stranger to the north tells Jon who was born and raised there. On top of that he picks the very same camp where Stannis's army was destroyed by "twenty good men". Utter bollocks.

[Red Tiger]

31 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

Except that Jon has no reason to park his army in reach of Winterfell as long as he is not ready to fight. It is absurd on the first place that Davos tells them where to camp: Davos who is a stranger to the north tells Jon who was born and raised there. On top of that he picks the very same camp where Stannis's army was destroyed by "twenty good men". Utter bollocks.

Not sure why you bring this up. When Davos said "this is where Stannis made camp" I thought "you do realize what happened last time, right?".

When I said Ramsay will be at his doorstep, I didnt mean they were close to Winterfell, I meant that Ramsay would move his army closer and closer to Jon.

 

[watcher of the night]

19 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

Not sure why you bring this up. When Davos said "this is where Stannis made camp" I thought "you do realize what happened last time, right?".

When I said Ramsay will be at his doorstep, I didnt mean they were close to Winterfell, I meant that Ramsay would move his army closer and closer to Jon.

 

I bring this up because to pick that campside is a stupid decision dictated by a future plot twist, and to give fight to the Boltons with a weak army is another stupid decision dictated by a future plot twist yet you are defending it as it would be inevitable.

 

[Red Tiger]

13 minutes ago, watcher of the night said:

I bring this up because to pick that campside is a stupid decision dictated by a future plot twist, and to give fight to the Boltons with a weak army is another stupid decision dictated by a future plot twist yet you are defending it as it would be inevitable.

 

Uhm, this is the part of the argument that I am NOT defending, it was everything else regarding the recruiting of houses. I didnt defend the campside or giving fight to the Boltons. I mostly consider this a damned if you do damned if you dont and giving fight just the lesser of two stupid options. I dont see that as defending.

[Red Tiger]

3 hours ago, Maid So Fair said:

 Like book Stannis they should be letting Ramsay come to THEM.

I have to go back to this for a minute. This is not a good comparison and I will explain why.

Book Stannis' army consisted of Northmen soldiers of Glover, Mormont, Umber and the mountain tribes which nonetheless have discipline, plus soldiers from the Stormlands, some from the Reach and Dragonstone, plus a couple of Ironborn. On top of that it was larger than Jon's and thus perceived as an actual threat, so Ramsay went after them.

Jon's army consists of chaotic wildlings who squabble over the smallest of things and as the battle at the Wall showed, they have about as much discipline as an adolescent with ADHD.

If you want to use intelligent defensive warfare, you need disciplined soldiers who understand tactics and unity, Jon simply doesnt have that, while Stannis absolutely does.

Now taking the fight to the Boltons blows, which Jon basically acknowledges, but judging from how ridiculously hard it is for him to even prevent the wildlings from killing eachother, he simply doesnt have a lot more time.

It sucks, its not a good strategy, but at this point he cant afford to wait.

[Maid So Fair]

2 hours ago, Red Tiger said:

About them not approaching the Manderlys: They sent ravens and heard nothing back, plus the North is really big and considering they visited several places we can assume they've been at it for at least a couple of weeks.

I agree with you on Jon not even trying.

Sure they heard the rumours of Ramsay, but nothing is proven, there are tales of Boltons going around wearing the flayed skins of ancient enemies. Ramsay killed the lord Cerwyn it is true, but keep in mind that Cerwyn said he would never obey a house but the Starks, which is basiclaly treason to his new liege and the penalty for treason is death.

But also, you gotta look at generations, we are from a generation that immediately assumes that where there is smoke there is fire, these people are lords living far away from eachother and can go years within seeing one another.

" What you mention is an extremely low standard for a liege lord ", yeah, no shit, but the most important part of being a liege is being in a position of power and even without the Karstarks and Umbers, Ramsay has a ton of manpower. Ramsay was also the guy who took back WInterfell, Moat Cailin and killed countless more ironborn, so its clear that this guy is not somebody to fuck with.

The lords could easily say "you guys forged this letter", in regards to the pink letter.

 

Ravens can get shot down or otherwise fails to reach their destination and the message might not be believed. Given how big a decision this is, if you were the Manderlys you might not want to take it without taking measure of the new Stark leadership and more more information. So that doesn't necessarily mean anything and certainly is no reason to abandon the only plan they've got.

As for Ramsay, it was egregious enough that LF didn't know about him, but Norhern lords? This is a prime piece of gossip and Ramsay has been doing it for years. I mean look at the Umbers - they have heard that Roose was dead before his corpse was even cold and seemed to have no doubts about how he died. Word gets around. Roose also seemed to think that Ramsay was way out of line flaying Lord Cerwyn and strongly implied other houses would not only hear but not be happy about it. It's not the standard punishment and shows how unstable Ramsay is - if the winter is really bad and you don't have money for taxes, is he going to flay you too? Treason is in the end of the beholder. 

And yes, you can always come up with an excuse not to believe - but why would you doubt the Pink Letter is true if it only confirms what you've been hearing for years?

But no one is saying they're too afraid to go against Ramsay - the main reason seems to be they don't give a shit about the Starks or the Bolton crimes.

[Maid So Fair]

2 hours ago, Vanessa16 said:

 

Do you think Ramsay is just gonna sit back and give them time to gather a larger army? As soon as he's heard that they've even made camp he'll march on them. And although some think that it's stupid of him to leave Winterfell, it really isn't. Remember that he's already agreed to help the Umbers defeat the wildlings. If he doesn't help them, he'd lose their support and risk the possibility of them joning the Starks. That's why it wouldn't make sense that the Umber, Karstark and Bolton army would just hang around doing nothing when, as far as they are concerned, wildlings have invaded their home.

Jon is urgent to attack first because he knows there isn't much time until the Bolton, Karstark and Umber army attacks. He's also eager to attack first because Ramsay has Rickon, and he's probably worried that Ramsay is hurting him.

Why not? That's what he's been doing so far.

There's no reason the Starks have to give him battle. The North is vast  - they can avoid it for quite some time if they so choose. Ramsay has no patience to chase them around and as you say he's on the clock with the Umbers. 

The Starks should know the area around Winterfell better than anybody - they should be using the terrain to their advantage to establish a good defensive position or lure Ramsay out and take WF while he's gone. 

50 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

I have to go back to this for a minute. This is not a good comparison and I will explain why.

Book Stannis' army consisted of Northmen soldiers of Glover, Mormont, Umber and the mountain tribes which nonetheless have discipline, plus soldiers from the Stormlands, some from the Reach and Dragonstone, plus a couple of Ironborn. On top of that it was larger than Jon's and thus perceived as an actual threat, so Ramsay went after them.

Jon's army consists of chaotic wildlings who squabble over the smallest of things and as the battle at the Wall showed, they have about as much discipline as an adolescent with ADHD.

If you want to use intelligent defensive warfare, you need disciplined soldiers who understand tactics and unity, Jon simply doesnt have that, while Stannis absolutely does.

Now taking the fight to the Boltons blows, which Jon basically acknowledges, but judging from how ridiculously hard it is for him to even prevent the wildlings from killing eachother, he simply doesnt have a lot more time.

It sucks, its not a good strategy, but at this point he cant afford to wait.

There's tension in Stannis's army as well, possibly more than any lack of disciple of the wildlings - his men are down to cannibalism and there's palpable tension between the Northerners and the followers of R'hllor. I'm also not sure how different the mountain clans are to the wildlings when it comes to organised fighting. They kind of sound like the lite version. 

The thing is that Jon seems to have no real plan and he's certainly not using the troops he has to his advantage. Him and Sansa grew up around WF - they should know exactly where to strike/pick a defensive position. Also, the wildlings might not be disciplined, but what they are is professional raiders. What he's got is 2000 good men - why not use them to raid Ramsay's camp? Knowing that Ramsay is reckless and hell-bent on revenge, he should be staging his own version of the Whispering Wood or if Ramsay is stupid enough not to leave the castle well-defended even luring him out and taking the castle while he's gone like Theon did, which again they've lived their all their lives so they should be able to figure something out. Hell, arrange a hostile takeover from within, using the pensioners who remember. Do something. This is an experieced battle commander here. 

Especially knowing that the wildlings are undisciplined and that you're desperately outnumbered giving Ramsay battle is the stupidest option here. But it's clear that Jon read the script, which said that they need to wrap this up for an epic battle in E9 and that they need LF/Vale to come to the rescue, which means that the Starks are not allowed to succeed on their own and so they must make sure they're completely useless for now. 

[Red Tiger]

10 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said:

Ravens can get shot down or otherwise fails to reach their destination and the message might not be believed. Given how big a decision this is, if you were the Manderlys you might not want to take it without taking measure of the new Stark leadership and more more information. So that doesn't necessarily mean anything and certainly is no reason to abandon the only plan they've got.

This is true

10 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said:

 It's not the standard punishment and shows how unstable Ramsay is - if the winter is really bad and you don't have money for taxes, is he going to flay you too? Treason is in the end of the beholder. 

It aint just that he didnt pay the taxes, its that he also said he would never follow anyone but the Starks.

11 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said:

And yes, you can always come up with an excuse not to believe - but why would you doubt the Pink Letter is true if it only confirms what you've been hearing for years?

Well, look at it from this point. If you are a Northern lord and you hear that this is what Ramsay does to those who defy him, would you really want to risk your spouse or child's life knowing that fighting him could lead to such a fate? That was one of the reasons Robett Glover wouldnt fight for them.

14 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said:

But no one is saying they're too afraid to go against Ramsay - the main reason seems to be they don't give a shit about the Starks or the Bolton crimes.

This is just blatantly false. Lyanna and Robett both mention that this war would cost more lives. Yeah the name is one reason and the indifference to the crimes are definitely there (though even in the books, Wyman and Robett blame the Freys), but its just one of many reasons.