Discussing Sansa XXIV: Forgetful North

[permaximum]

On ‎6‎.‎06‎.‎2016 at 7:57 AM, Scorpion92 said:

Several things:

1) Jon, Davos and Sansa will clearly get outnumbered at Winterfell. The letter is certainly meant for Littlefinger, because Jon already mentioned to Lord Glover that they sent a raven to Manderlys.

2) People on the crosses we see prior battle are northern lords: Hornwood and Maizin (for allying with Starks), Glover (for not arresting the trio and sending them to Winterfell, Ramsay is a psycho), and some other lords. We know Lord Cerwyn and Lord Manderly are cast for this season, and I think initially they will be on House Bolton's side, but when Vale army arrives they will turn cloak. However, I do not expect them to survive either, bastard Ramsay will take some people with him before his demise in episode 10.

3) Knights of the Vale will help to crush Bolton/Karstark/Umber coalition. Then when the battle is over, Lord Royce tells Sansa and Jon the story Littlefinger told him and Sweetrobin about "Sansa's abduction by Boltons", Sansa will reveal his lie and tell Jon to execute the mockingbird at Winterfell godswood (I think it is Jon who approaches LF in godswood, that is why Baelish is not that happy). I don't think Vale lords and knights will object too much, and Sansa will take over control of Sweetrobin.

4) When Starks have retaken Winterfell and Ramsay and Littlefinger are dead (in episode 10), we shall see Sansa riding south with Lord Royce, Sweetrobin and Vale army as a diplomat to try and recruit southern lords to come help Jon and the North with White Walker threat.

Jon, meanwhile, since Sansa forfeited her claim and left south, will be named as Jon Stark and be elected their King in the North, the Free Folk way (democratically) and prepare the North for Night King.

He will reward the chiefs of wildling tribes with lordships, since they were the bulk of support and give them lands to settle on. Tormund is sure to get some nice and juicy castle, maybe even Dreadfort or Last Hearth. I believe he will reward Ser Davos with lordship of White Harbor and task him to build a fleet.

Given how this episode showed how remaining Starks will rely heavily on wildling forces and how some northern houses refused them, it is definitely a time for a new blood in the North, like Harald Karstark told Roose in episode 2.

You're such a dreamer. Kill Littlefinger and speak some words as a shield which would be meaningles for the Vale even if they were true while the 45000 Vale soldiers under the command of Petyr Baelish is there watching.

Your type of guys are the same guys that thought Starks would rally the North behind them.

[Future Null Infinity]

2 hours ago, Les Météores D said:

Sansa isn't going to betray Jon

People go directly to the betrayal because they  don't have this little question in their minds : IF Sansa suggests the help of LittleFinger to Jon, will Jon accept or no? the response is obvious, this is why she didn't tell him, and another simple question : who is more precious : Winterfell or the telling the truth to Jon?

[Ser Muradin the Small]

The Jon-Sansa rallying the North was underwhelming, to say the least. I understand that they are setting up LF to win the battle for them LOTR style, but their incompetence was WAY out of character. I mean did everyone forget that the Boltons sacked Winterfell, putting the North into disarray and letting the Ironborn be more successful than they ought to have? Have they forgotten that Roose stuck a knife into Robb's heart, a fact which everyone from Dorne to the Wall seems to know? All of them lost family in the Red Wedding and promptly moved on -__-

I could understand hesitation working with wildlings, a former LC of the Night's Watch/someone married to Lannister and Boltons, but this was just bad. Don't even mention the fact that Jon who convinced a large number of Wildlings to get refuge South and Sansa whose been learning the game literally can't articulate anything clearly.

[Jojosh]

So much for the great Northern conspiracy 

I mean two starks just drop right into your laps and are trying to save a 3rd and most of the northern houses are pretty much asleep and acting like the boltons or basically just ramsay is the sane and smart choice to back 

amazing writing 

sansa in the show is smart to go to littlefinger no idea what his endgame is though 

[WinterCloak]

My only hope for North this season is for Ramsay-Sue and LF to meet their ends. Euron is a nasty piece of work in the books but show? I don't know. His arrival was basically to transition us to the new 'bad guy we love to hate', just as Ramsay-Sue was to replace Joffrey, Euron is here to replace Ramsay-Sue. 

LF...I don't see a role for him in the war with the WW. So, if we're getting prepared for that to take centre-statement season, there won't be a game left for LF to play, no chaos ladder to climb. Pure survival means people won't care about power, only competent leadership. As to who kills him? At this stage, I just don't care. Kill him already.

[Mladen]

17 minutes ago, Jojosh said:

So much for the great Northern conspiracy 

Well, I don't think that the TV show is any indication of what will politically be happening in the North, at least regarding TWOW.

And what is more frustrating is that this plot was supposed to be the decent one this season. Between Dany's cliche pyre and horrors in Dorne, this one actually went somewhere. And now it is lost again. I am not 100% sure Sansa was writing to LF. If she were, the producers wouldn't mind revealing that to us. There wouldn't be the need for mystery. So, now the question remains whether Sansa will be smart enough to play her cards right.

[Future Null Infinity]

Just now, WinterCloak said:

LF...I don't see a role for him in the war with the WW. So, if we're getting prepared for that to take centre-statement season, there won't be a game left for LF to play, no chaos ladder to climb. Pure survival means people won't care about power, only competent leadership. As to who kills him? At this stage, I just don't care. Kill him already.

that's made think, is it possible that we are heading to :

Danny + Varys + Kinvara = Jon + Melisandre + LittleFinger??? (strong indications of an LF redemption with the starks at the end of the season)

[Xcorpyo001]

55 minutes ago, Jojosh said:

So much for the great Northern conspiracy 

I mean two starks just drop right into your laps and are trying to save a 3rd and most of the northern houses are pretty much asleep and acting like the boltons or basically just ramsay is the sane and smart choice to back 

amazing writing 

sansa in the show is smart to go to littlefinger no idea what his endgame is though 

 

Well, look at the bright side. We knew that Jon will lose the fight and be saved at the last second by the eagles of the Vale. Then the rest of the northern lords will declare for him, without losing any troops in the process. So most of the wildlings get massacred, and the northern houses still have troops to fight the WW once they get past the Wall. It’s a win-win. Maybe in the show this is the true conspiracy. Let the wildlings and the Boltons weaken each other, then 'join the fray' and destroy a weakened Bolton. LF and the GNC are using the same playbook.

[Barty]

Where was Ghost? Having a direwolf by your side would have gone a long way to reminding people that Jon is a Stark. Or if not the presence of a direwolf then having a few fingers chewed off could remind people of their oaths. I'm sick of the TV show cutting out the Direwolves to save budget for dragons who do nothing but allow Danny to give the same damn speech for the millionth time. 

Jon and Sansa are Starks - they made a mistake by begging for aid. They should have demanded it. Make a strong statement. You have 2000 wildlings - march on the Last Hearth while the Umbers are at Winterfell. Put a few heads on spikes and then remind the fucking North that the Starks are still alive. The Starks didnt conquer the North by asking for it nicely. The North respects strength, not this begging around 50 -60 men.

 

[King Perkis]

40 minutes ago, Xcorpyo001 said:

 

Well, look at the bright side. We knew that Jon will lose the fight and be saved at the last second by the eagles of the Vale. Then the rest of the northern lords will declare for him, without losing any troops in the process. So most of the wildlings get massacred, and the northern houses still have troops to fight the WW once they get past the Wall. It’s a win-win. Maybe in the show this is the true conspiracy. Let the wildlings and the Boltons weaken each other, then 'join the fray' and destroy a weakened Bolton. LF and the GNC are using the same playbook.

 

King of a glass half full way to look at it b/c if the story follows that path, Jon trades 2k loyal fighters for however many Northerners who turned their back on the Stark name.  Also, Jon would be trading an experienced group of fighters in terms of the WWs (how to somewhat kill and go about fighting) for an inexperienced group (largely believe WWs aren't real and may come in with prideful outlook ,ie we are Northerns and can just beat the WWs in normal fighting fashion).

41 minutes ago, Barty said:

Where was Ghost? Jon and Sansa are Starks - they made a mistake by begging for aid. They should have demanded it. Make a strong statement. You have 2000 wildlings - march on the Last Hearth while the Umbers are at Winterfell. Put a few heads on spikes and then remind the fucking North that the Starks are still alive. The Starks didnt conquer the North by asking for it nicely. The North respects strength, not this begging around 50 -60 men.

 

Agree 100%. Jon and Sansa are somewhat new to the game, where in a sense they are finally acting on their own largely (Jon without Sam and his buddies; Sansa without LF). But even with that being the case, why it seemed like they went into every attempt to gain soldiers with their pants on the ground I'll never understand.  Also, I agree on the marching on Last Hearth.  It's like they didn't gather anything from Glover's speech of the Ironborn taking his home.  I understand the lack of time and resources but with the way the show works its not like it would be completely out of the question (especially after how yara quickly ascended the Dreadfort's walls with like 20 men).

[Scorpion92]

4 hours ago, permaximum said:

You're such a dreamer. Kill Littlefinger and speak some words as a shield which would be meaningles for the Vale even if they were true while the 45000 Vale soldiers under the command of Petyr Baelish is there watching.

Your type of guys are the same guys that thought Starks would rally the North behind them.

Vale army is not under the command of Petyr Baelish, they are sworn to Sweetrobin, who is probably behind at the Eyrie, and it is Lord Royce who is commanding them. If Sansa proves Littlefinger is a liar and Lord Royce confirms her story, Baelish is not long for this world. There is a reason Sansa did not tell Jon about LF, he would have gone to Mole's Town with her and cut his head right there.

[permaximum]

1 hour ago, Scorpion92 said:

Vale army is not under the command of Petyr Baelish, they are sworn to Sweetrobin, who is probably behind at the Eyrie, and it is Lord Royce who is commanding them. If Sansa proves Littlefinger is a liar and Lord Royce confirms her story, Baelish is not long for this world. There is a reason Sansa did not tell Jon about LF, he would have gone to Mole's Town with her and cut his head right there.

Lord Baelish is the Lord Protector of the Vale AND acting Lord of the Vale in Robin Arryn's absence. Not even the entire North can do shit to Petyr Baelish when the battle is over.

[Scorpion92]

18 minutes ago, permaximum said:

Lord Baelish is the Lord Protector of the Vale AND acting Lord of the Vale in Robin Arryn's absence. Not even the entire North can do shit to Petyr Baelish when the battle is over.

In the trailer, there is brief scene where Littlefinger is in Winterfell godswood and does not look too happy about someone approaching him, who at this point is none other than Jon. I bet Sansa is there as well (since Brienne is away, her brother will come along). They are pretty much alone in that wood, so no Vale soldiers present.

If Jon executes him right there, and afterwards Sansa will explain to Lord Royce, the commander of the Vale army, why she allowed it to happen ("I was not kidnapped by Boltons, I was given to them"), I don't think many Valemen will give two shits about Baelish. Essentially, Littlefinger's death would be GOOD for Lord Royce, because it will allow him to be Lord Protector of Sweetrobin once again.

And besides, storywise, if Littlefinger survives this season, what is next for him? He openly betrayed Iron Throne by helping House Stark take back Winterfell. And he did it not only to help Sansa out of goodness of his heart, he wants to become Warden of the North - he asked Cersei for it back in season 5. And in no way in hell it is gonna happen. So he is doomed to die in my books. Sansa will use his help and then turn on him. 

[yakisikli123]

And what is reason for Jon executing him right now.

And if he executes him, nobody from Vale army would ask why, also Sweetrobin (You should only give him a present and he laughs again).

[permaximum]

1 hour ago, Scorpion92 said:

In the trailer, there is brief scene where Littlefinger is in Winterfell godswood and does not look too happy about someone approaching him, who at this point is none other than Jon. I bet Sansa is there as well (since Brienne is away, her brother will come along). They are pretty much alone in that wood, so no Vale soldiers present.

If Jon executes him right there, and afterwards Sansa will explain to Lord Royce, the commander of the Vale army, why she allowed it to happen ("I was not kidnapped by Boltons, I was given to them"), I don't think many Valemen will give two shits about Baelish. Essentially, Littlefinger's death would be GOOD for Lord Royce, because it will allow him to be Lord Protector of Sweetrobin once again.

Why should the Knights of the Vale care about if Sansa was willing to go to Boltons or not? On the contrary, executing LF right there would give them a golden oppurtunity to claim the North in that moment and they would hang any opposers right there including Sansa and Jon. Noone would care about if Royce was good with Ned before. Power is the only thing matters. I thought the latest episode was clear as daylight. Even those small houses that swore to Starks and had reasons to attack the Boltons didn't care.

Trying to kill the acting Lord of the Vale while the whole army is there in the North would be the dumbest mistake any Stark do. I don't think they're "that" stupid.

[Darksky]

Quote

Lord Baelish,


You swore to protect me. You failed. Now you have a chance to fulfill your promise. The knights of the Vale are under your command. Ride for Winterfell and lend us your aid and I shall see to it that you are rewarded

Sansa Stark

is what's in the letter.

Considering she relented and turned to him for help, there's no reason to keep that from Jon anymore. Jon has resigned to attack Ramsay and his allies with insufficient force. If he knew the Vale's coming, he could decide to wait for them. With their help from the start they'd lose fewer men.

So unless Sansa doesn't care about the casualties in Jon's army and the risk Jon takes and instead wants the Vale army for herself (that is she gets to ride with them, swoop in to save the day and claim the glory), she should let Jon in on this.

Maybe she intends for Jon to lose most of his army so that he's in no position of power.

 

BTW what kind of reward is she talking about? She's got nothing to give, definitely not at the time she wrote the letter.

She can't give him Winterfell. It belongs to Bran, then Rickon. Can't give him the North. Money? She's got none. Herself?

[Future Null Infinity]

Just now, permaximum said:

Why should the Knights of the Vale care about if Sansa was willing to go to Boltons or not? On the contrary, executing LF right there would give them a golden oppurtunity to claim the North in that moment and they would hang any opposers right there including Sansa and Jon. Noone would care about if Royce was good with Ned before. Power is the only thing matters. I thought the latest episode was clear as daylight. Even those small houses that swore to Starks and had reasons to attack the Boltons didn't care.

The army of the knights of the vale get its orders from sweetrobin, he is the commander, watch this video, it explain why sweetrobin ordered the knights of the vale to go and rescue Sansa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oSQeDbkyVw

[permaximum]

1 hour ago, Future Null Infinity said:

The army of the knights of the vale get its orders from sweetrobin, he is the commander, watch this video, it explain why sweetrobin ordered the knights of the vale ro fo and rescue Sansa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oSQeDbkyVw

Robin Arryn was present in that scene. On his absence Lord Petyr Baelish is the acting Lord of the Vale. I don't think Robin will be there with the army. Even if he would be there, I don't think he'll take his uncle's execution lightly.

[Future Null Infinity]

Just now, permaximum said:

Robin Arryn was present in that scene. On his absence Lord Petyr Baelish is the acting Lord of the Vale. I don't think Robin will be there with the army. Even if he will be there, I don't think he'll take his uncle's execution lightly.

ah man, he will throw all of them through the moon door 

[Cas Stark]

1 minute ago, permaximum said:

Robin Arryn was present in that scene. On his absence Lord Petyr Baelish is the acting Lord of the Vale. I don't think Robin will be there with the army. Even if he would be there, I don't think he'll take his uncle's execution lightly.

Who cares?  Quite frankly, LF should already be dead.  The Boltons, by all reasonable standards, would have arranged an "accident" that he would have while on the way back from WF, they already had Sansa and he was a liability, as he will soon go about proving when he turns on them.  Since LF has now alienated Lord Royce, if he were to die, Royce will be thrilled....meaning that whatever Robin might have wanted in the moment, isn't going to happen, whether he's executed or has an accident.  And if Robin is told that it was LF who killed his mother, then, theres an end to his affection.