Littlefinger's plan: Will Sansa inherit the Vale of Arryn?

[Britisher]

(Apologies for the short introduction)

So I've had my doubts about Sansa's betrothal to Harrold Hardyng for a while now. 

It is well-established that Harrold Hardyng (also known as 'Harry the Heir') is next in line to inherit the Vale of Arryn should Robert Arryn pass away. But who would claim the Vale after the death of Harrold Hardyng? Harrold has a bastard daughter named Alys who is two years of age, and has impregnated a woman called Saffron (illegitimately). Alys would have a slight claim to the Vale assuming that Saffron does not birth a boy, however she is a bastard, a girl and a toddler - the chances of her (or her half-sibling) inheriting the Vale are slight to say the least!

So who does that leave us with? The Tullys.

Petyr Baelish (widely known as 'Littlefinger') is the current Lord Protector of the Vale - he is in a position of power in the Vale. Assuming that Sansa weds Harrold she would have a strong claim over the Vale as both the cousin of Robert Arryn and the widow of Harrold Hardyng. So does Littlefinger intend to solidify his power base that is the Vale of Arryn through Sansa (perhaps hoping to secure the Vale and the North by marrying her)? Would the Lords of the Vale accept Sansa as their liege lord?

[Jon's Queen Consort]

I don’t think that the line of succession works the way you think. An in law cannot inherit and Sansa is an in law with no power of her own right, she can rule if she has a child by Harry as the child’s regent but nothing more. Even if Harry the Heir dies without an heir other Arryn relatives will take his place. Heck even the Targs have more right to the Vale than Sansa.

[Britisher]

1 minute ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

I don’t think that the line of succession works the way you think. An in law cannot inherit and Sansa is an in law with no power of her own right, she can rule if she has a child by Harry as the child’s regent but nothing more. Even if Harry the Heir dies without an heir other Arryn relatives will take his place. Heck even the Targs have more right to the Vale than Sansa.

George RR Martin:

Quote

The short answer is that the laws of inheritance in the Seven Kingdoms are modelled on those in real medieval history...which is to say they were vague, uncodified, subject to varying interpretations, and often contradictory.

As far as I am aware the Arryn line would die with Harrold (which would require going back up past Jasper Arryn to find a suitable heir).

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, Britisher said:

As far as I am aware the Arryn line would die with Harrold (which would require going back up past Jasper Arryn to find a suitable heir).

Actually, it is likely that Timett son of Timett is the last of the Arryn line. If his father Timett married the "stolen" aunt of Harry, then Timett is as much an Arryn as Harry is. Why else did George write such a long exposition of what befell the other Waynwood-Arryn daughters?

And before the Arryns were Kings of the Vale, the Royces were made King of the Vale. No, a Stark will not "inherit" the Vale.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Just now, Britisher said:

As far as I am aware the Arryn line would die with Harrold (which would require going back up past Jasper Arryn to find a suitable heir).

It means sons, daughters and bastards people that have blood relationship with and not in laws. In ASOIAF we have seen people saying that they need a blood relative to take the power. If an in-law could inherit the Lannisters would had taken the North and Robb would had named Edmure as his heir and not Jon. There is no example of an inlaw taking the power simple as that even if Arryn line dies then even Arryn of Gulltown will inherit before Sansa. Heck for the Vale even Jon comes before Sansa.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Someone speculated with the possibility that Littlefingers actual plan is to murder Harry.

What happens if both harry and Robert die? the succession line would become very controversial

When the Gardener line was extinguished during the conquest, the IT actually decided who would be Lord of the Reach.

Maybe LFs plan is to have harry killed so the IT names him Lord of the Vale, by that time LF would have got enough support of the lords of the vale (excpet house royce).. and then marry sansa himself.

[Britisher]

15 minutes ago, LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse said:

Someone speculated with the possibility that Littlefingers actual plan is to murder Harry.

What happens if both harry and Robert die? the succession line would become very controversial

When the Gardener line was extinguished during the conquest, the IT actually decided who would be Lord of the Reach.

Maybe LFs plan is to have harry killed so the IT names him Lord of the Vale, by that time LF would have got enough support of the lords of the vale (excpet house royce).. and then marry sansa himself.

EDITED

So why marry Sansa to Harrold? 

If the Lords of the Vale were to support Sansa's claim to the Vale of Arryn Sansa would become the de facto ruler of the Vale. I think that it is a possibility: Daenerys attempted to claim Khal Drogo's Khalasar through marriage.

In English history it was not unheard of for claims to be made based on in-law relations (for example William III's claim to the Scottish, English and Irish thrones).

 

 

[Jon's Queen Consort]

13 minutes ago, LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse said:

Someone speculated with the possibility that Littlefingers actual plan is to murder Harry.

What happens if both harry and Robert die? the succession line would become very controversial

When the Gardener line was extinguished during the conquest, the IT actually decided who would be Lord of the Reach.

Maybe LFs plan is to have harry killed so the IT names him Lord of the Vale, by that time LF would have got enough support of the lords of the vale (excpet house royce).. and then marry sansa himself.

I could see that after a fashion. First marry Harry to Sansa and Sansa having an heir. Then kill Harry and marry Sansa and rulling as her child's regent.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

2 minutes ago, Britisher said:

So why marry Sansa to Harrold? 

If the Lords of the Vale were to support Sansa's claim to the Vale of Arryn Sansa would become the de facto ruler of the Vale of Arryn. 

 

she won`t, LF wants sansa for himself.

. Harry will die in the tourney. It will seem like an accident. Lyn Corbray will do it (LF most prominent enemy)

the betrothal will make LF look innocent. he seems like the last person in the vale to want harry dead, he just managed to get his "daughter" engaged to the most wanted bachelor of westeros.

 

 

[Britisher]

9 minutes ago, LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse said:

 

she won`t, LF wants sansa for himself.

. Harry will die in the tourney. It will seem like an accident. Lyn Corbray will do it (LF most prominent enemy)

the betrothal will make LF look innocent. he seems like the last person in the vale to want harry dead, he just managed to get his "daughter" engaged to the most wanted bachelor of westeros.

(I've edited my last post)

He does want Sansa, but he also wants her claim.

I'm not convinced that the IT will grant him the Vale of Arryn: that would make him one of the most powerful lords in the Seven Kingdoms. I'm also not convinced that all of the Lords of the Vale will be content with Littlefinger taking official control over the Vale of Arryn, whereas I believe that there's more of a chance that the Royces/Lords of the Vale will support Sansa's claim to the Vale. 

 

 

 

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

11 minutes ago, Britisher said:

(I've edited my last post)

He does want Sansa, but he also wants her claim.

I'm not convinced that the IT will grant him the Vale of Arryn: that would make him one of the most powerful lords in the Seven Kingdoms. I'm also not convinced that all of the Lords of the Vale will be content with Littlefinger taking official control over the Vale of Arryn, whereas I believe that there's more of a chance that the Royces/Lords of the Vale will support Sansa's claim to the Vale. 

 

 

 

her claim to what? Winterfell? sure

but she has no claim to the Vale.

LF is an ally. who better from Cerseis POV to rule the vale than LF? can she trust any of the other lords that wanted to go to war with house lannister? If the IT could choose the new lord of the vale, Cersei would pick littlefinger.

Some of the other lords of the vale are already LF allies. he bought them over. they will flock to his side.

 

point is, i don`t see LF sharing Sansa with Harry. Sansa is Cat 2.0 for him. he wants her for himself. assuming i`m right about his intentions for sansa i`m just speculating with what could be LF true plan.

There are clues of someone dying in the tourney. I think it will be Harry the Heir. If that was the case, who would be Roberts heir? no one. you would have to go way back in the line to find an heir.

on the other hand, the actual protector of the vale, who has the backing of the IT, and a handful of local allies including some of the Lord declarants seems like a good option.

 

[Britisher]

1 minute ago, LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse said:

her claim to what? Winterfell? sure

but she has no claim to the Vale.

LF is an ally. who better from Cerseis POV to rule the vale than LF? can she trust any of the other lords that wanted to go to war with house lannister? If the IT could choose the new lord of the vale, Cersei would pick littlefinger.

Some of the other lords of the vale are already LF allies. he bought them over. they will flock to his side.

 

point is, i don`t see LF sharing Sansa with Harry. Sansa is Cat 2.0 for him. he wants her for himself. assuming i`m right about his intentions for sansa i`m just speculating with what could be LF true plan.

There are clues of someone dying in the tourney. I think it will be Harry the Heir. If that was the case, who would be Roberts heir? no one. you would have to go way back in the line to find an heir.

on the other hand, the actual protector of the vale, who has the backing of the IT, and a handful of local allies including some of the Lord declarants seems like a good option.

 

Yes to the North.

That's true I suppose! And what happens when Littlefinger dies?

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

28 minutes ago, Britisher said:

Yes to the North.

That's true I suppose! And what happens when Littlefinger dies?

i don`t know. I think Sansa is kidnapped by Ser Shadrich after she kills littlefinger

[Byfort of Corfe]

Alayne can only produce an heir to the Vale, she cannot become the heir.  Lysa IIRC had plans to marry Sansa to Sweet Robin but only as Sansa, not as Alayne.  Now I suppose that LF could write to Cersei and point out that he has this Natural Daughter and ask Cersei to have Tommen legitimize here, which he would surely do.  But then you would have created this fake person, Alayne Baelish who would have no claim to Winterfell so why replace a very real claim (albeit at the moment inconvenient) with a fake claim?  So I really don't understand what you gain by having Sansa marry anyone as Alayne.  Besides, Petyr wants her for himself and even if she marries, produces an heir and then her husband dies a convenient death what does it gain?  It just seems like a lot of exposure for little gain and that's not the way that LF does business.

[Britisher]

Lady Dustin inherited Barrowton as the widow of William Dustin.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Widows seemingly can "inherit" lands and titles from their husbands, however exactly when and how this is applied we don't really know, however this almost certainly does not extend to the wider family of the widow, and it is unclear if it is allowed for a widow's children after she remarries inherit when she dies or if it will go back to the lord's family.

So to be safe LF would be dumb to try to off Harry until he has a child by Sansa.

[Lemonking]

Succession laws only apply, if there is someone strong enough to enforce them. A soon as the succession becomes murky, the title is up for grabs and it will be Royce supporters vs LF supporters.

Historically, the justification for such successions could become pretty creative.

[Whitering]

43 minutes ago, Ser Arthur Hightower said:

Widows seemingly can "inherit" lands and titles from their husbands, however exactly when and how this is applied we don't really know, however this almost certainly does not extend to the wider family of the widow, and it is unclear if it is allowed for a widow's children after she remarries inherit when she dies or if it will go back to the lord's family.

So to be safe LF would be dumb to try to off Harry until he has a child by Sansa.

Widows inheriting likely has to have public support. Barbrey's family is inter married to many northern families, so there was no opposition to her rule. If Jon Arryn and Lysa didn't have any children, Lysa would not have ruled the Vale as few, if any people, supported her. She could have held it if she married a Royce or something, but the support would be for that family, not her personally.

[Colonel Green]

5 hours ago, Britisher said:

Lady Dustin inherited Barrowton as the widow of William Dustin.

There don't seem to be any other Dustins left.

On 8/27/2016 at 3:37 PM, LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse said:

When the Gardener line was extinguished during the conquest, the IT actually decided who would be Lord of the Reach.

Maybe LFs plan is to have harry killed so the IT names him Lord of the Vale, by that time LF would have got enough support of the lords of the vale (excpet house royce).. and then marry sansa himself.

The Iron Throne is in no way strong enough to enforce somebody as Lord of the Eyrie at this point, and the Vale nobility would never countenance Baelish as ruler of the Eyrie.  He has no claim whatsoever to it, and it has been held by House Arryn for 6000 years.

On 8/27/2016 at 2:53 PM, Britisher said:

As far as I am aware the Arryn line would die with Harrold (which would require going back up past Jasper Arryn to find a suitable heir).

As you say in that sentence, the Arryn line is not dead if Harry and Robert both die: only the line of Jasper Arryn.  There are loads of Arryn descendents around, and numerous cadet branches.  Whether it's a descendent of Jasper's brother, sister, whatever, they'd find the next in line.

[Sensenmenn]

39 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

There don't seem to be any other Dustins left.

Wasn't there a male bastard under the protection if the hornwoods or something like that I can't quite remember.