PINK LETTER

[Tucu]

21 minutes ago, dariopatke said:

But we know that birds usually fly in one way, birds that fly between two castles are "greatly prized" and ones he has are "not that clever", so Arnolf has to bring a bird that flies to CB. He has three birds, why would he waste one on CB?

I am saying that Stannis could have any of the ravens from Deepwood Motte, Bear Island, Last Hearth or any of the 5 mountains clans trained for CB. Asha's and Theon's POV have very limited view of Stannis' resources; Tybald's ravens are not necessarily the only ravens available to Stannis.

[dariopatke]

5 hours ago, Tucu said:

I am saying that Stannis could have any of the ravens from Deepwood Motte, Bear Island, Last Hearth or any of the 5 mountains clans trained for CB. Asha's and Theon's POV have very limited view of Stannis' resources; Tybald's ravens are not necessarily the only ravens available to Stannis.

Oh that, well I guess, but from all candidates (Asha, Theon and Stannis) only Stannis would have acess to that birds and it is really out of character for him to pull PL.

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

 I'll be realistic and say that it was very odd for {spoiler} Stannis to send Justin Massey across the sea. 

But that being said stannis will NO QUESTION take down the boltons and put a massive knife in the freys which will be finished off by family civil war (the twins will split and black wander will control one) and finally by BWB (stoneheart) "Ned loved my hair"  at the very least Stannis will leave Winterfell in a position for Jon Snow to take back.  Which if Stannis dies means John will help put Shireen on the iron throne.....  But the problem is Stanis doesn't know Jon got stabbed and that his daughter was required to be sacrificed to bring him back.

The rest of the north is already ready to rally behind a stark while I do think Rob's will is out there, I'm still leaning towards Bran (Who  did an amazing job in his short tenure as Lord) for some reason to return to WF as lord after completing his training and blood raven passing the torch a.k.a. dying  on his own terms. 

And freaking little finger is going to be able to Keep the vale safe yet again and Sansa will make/let her  least favorite sibling do all the heavy lifting to get "her" castle back. (Jon will never be lord of WF as child Robb put it "you will never be lord of WF you're a bastard".) He'd never accept unless Robb's will

As for the OP I'm disappointed in the lack of Mance Rayder voters. Don't ask me how he didn't get caught (maybe something to do with all those murders)  end it took him several tries to finish the note or he was busy doing something else or maybe it has nothing to do with the murders.  Either way I remember a certain young boy who is about to save several races of people from monsters do you still love climbing in winterfell.  And if he can do it men's raider can certainly do it . 

 The rest of the details  my answer would probably be "because he is Mance Rayder"

 

[Tucu]

20 minutes ago, dariopatke said:

Oh that, well I guess, but from all candidates (Asha, Theon and Stannis) only Stannis would have acess to that birds and it is really out of character for him to pull PL.

It doesn't look out of character to me. Stannis sends a smuggler and a shadowbinder to win him Storm's End. He pretends to be a faithful R'hllor follower to get Melissandre's assistance. He also seems involved in burning Rattleshirt as Mance (Godry strangles "Mance" before he can say who he is and then Stannis gifts "Rattlershirt" to Jon)

[dariopatke]

16 hours ago, Tucu said:

It doesn't look out of character to me. Stannis sends a smuggler and a shadowbinder to win him Storm's End. He pretends to be a faithful R'hllor follower to get Melissandre's assistance. He also seems involved in burning Rattleshirt as Mance (Godry strangles "Mance" before he can say who he is and then Stannis gifts "Rattlershirt" to Jon)

SE was different, if we readers know he isnt fully devoted ofc that she know it, too. Hm, interesting about Mance, but not enough evidence that Stannis is involved, Godry is Queens Man, which means he will listen Mel before Stannis, maybe she did all the scheeming without his knowledge, but I leave option with his role open.

But about PL, a bird needs few days to reach CB, it takes some time to gather wildlings and provisions and march and at least month (though I would argue much more) to reach WF, does Stannis have that much time?

[The Drunkard]

17 hours ago, Tucu said:

It doesn't look out of character to me. Stannis sends a smuggler and a shadowbinder to win him Storm's End. He pretends to be a faithful R'hllor follower to get Melissandre's assistance. He also seems involved in burning Rattleshirt as Mance (Godry strangles "Mance" before he can say who he is and then Stannis gifts "Rattlershirt" to Jon)

A willingness to use magic and deception in war is different to this sort of manipulation of his allies. If he was this good at it, he would have done it in the past. 

Regardless though, he stands to gain almost nothing from sending the Pink Letter. It would take Jon at least a month to reach the crofters village from the Wall, assuming he chooses to march south at all, and as far as Stannis is aware there are only ~300 wildlings ready to fight at Castle Black. He doesn't have the time or supplies to wait for whatever meager force Jon may be bringing, and it's in no way worth the risk that he's taking with his family and Melisandre. 

However, he stands to gain much by deceiving the Boltons, and we know he has the means to do it.

[Tucu]

1 hour ago, dariopatke said:

SE was different, if we readers know he isnt fully devoted ofc that she know it, too. Hm, interesting about Mance, but not enough evidence that Stannis is involved, Godry is Queens Man, which means he will listen Mel before Stannis, maybe she did all the scheeming without his knowledge, but I leave option with his role open.

But about PL, a bird needs few days to reach CB, it takes some time to gather wildlings and provisions and march and at least month (though I would argue much more) to reach WF, does Stannis have that much time?

 

48 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

A willingness to use magic and deception in war is different to this sort of manipulation of his allies. If he was this good at it, he would have done it in the past. 

Regardless though, he stands to gain almost nothing from sending the Pink Letter. It would take Jon at least a month to reach the crofters village from the Wall, assuming he chooses to march south at all, and as far as Stannis is aware there are only ~300 wildlings ready to fight at Castle Black. He doesn't have the time or supplies to wait for whatever meager force Jon may be bringing, and it's in no way worth the risk that he's taking with his family and Melisandre. 

However, he stands to gain much by deceiving the Boltons, and we know he has the means to do it.

Stannis seems to "cheat" under a plausible deniability cover. This would not be that different from his other black ops.

If he won the battle in the ice against the Freys (likely given the holes in the ice and the Manderlys following the Freys), he would have enough horses to feed his army for a while, but he can't do a 6 months siege. A Stark could lift the siege in a day,  so he tricks Jon into breaking his vows, blames the Boltons for the letter and then offers Jon a pardon in exchange for bending the knee and becoming Lord of Winterfell.

 

[The Drunkard]

1 hour ago, Tucu said:

Stannis seems to "cheat" under a plausible deniability cover. This would not be that different from his other black ops.

It's different in that he'd be targeting an ally rather than an enemy. 

If he won the battle in the ice against the Freys (likely given the holes in the ice and the Manderlys following the Freys), he would have enough horses to feed his army for a while, but he can't do a 6 months siege. A Stark could lift the siege in a day,  so he tricks Jon into breaking his vows, blames the Boltons for the letter and then offers Jon a pardon in exchange for bending the knee and becoming Lord of Winterfell.

As far as anyone knows the Boltons have had a Stark for months, and now Stannis has that Stark, and in neither case was it an immediate game changer. Even if, for some reason, he believed that a Stark bastard-turned-deserter would inspire more loyalty than Arya, he's still 1) putting his heir, Melisandre, and the Wall at risk, 2) forced to wait for months in a situation he can't afford to, 3) hinging his entire strategy on the chance that Jon decides to march south. It's a bad plan. (And this is assuming he has with him a raven to Castle Black, which we can't verify)

However, we know that he has ravens to Winterfell*, that he knows the Boltons are expecting friendly information from those ravens**, and that he knows that waiting in the storm is a losing strategy***. Using the Karstark ravens to lull the Boltons into a false sense of victory before striking is far and away the better plan, and the more fitting in regards to his character.

* 

"Answer me. If we were to loose these birds, would they return to the Dreadfort?" The king leaned forward. "Or might they fly for Winterfell instead?"
Maester Tybald pissed his robes.

** "I will ask you once again. What was in the message you sent to Winterfell?"
The maester quivered. "A m-map, Your Grace."

*** "Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved."

[dariopatke]

1 hour ago, The Drunkard said:

It's different in that he'd be targeting an ally rather than an enemy. 

 

 

As far as anyone knows the Boltons have had a Stark for months, and now Stannis has that Stark, and in neither case was it an immediate game changer. Even if, for some reason, he believed that a Stark bastard-turned-deserter would inspire more loyalty than Arya, he's still 1) putting his heir, Melisandre, and the Wall at risk, 2) forced to wait for months in a situation he can't afford to, 3) hinging his entire strategy on the chance that Jon decides to march south. It's a bad plan. (And this is assuming he has with him a raven to Castle Black, which we can't verify)

However, we know that he has ravens to Winterfell*, that he knows the Boltons are expecting friendly information from those ravens**, and that he knows that waiting in the storm is a losing strategy***. Using the Karstark ravens to lull the Boltons into a false sense of victory before striking is far and away the better plan, and the more fitting in regards to his character.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

* 

"Answer me. If we were to loose these birds, would they return to the Dreadfort?" The king leaned forward. "Or might they fly for Winterfell instead?"
Maester Tybald pissed his robes.

** "I will ask you once again. What was in the message you sent to Winterfell?"
The maester quivered. "A m-map, Your Grace."

*** "Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved."

 

This.

[Tucu]

1 hour ago, The Drunkard said:

It's different in that he'd be targeting an ally rather than an enemy. 

 

 

As far as anyone knows the Boltons have had a Stark for months, and now Stannis has that Stark, and in neither case was it an immediate game changer. Even if, for some reason, he believed that a Stark bastard-turned-deserter would inspire more loyalty than Arya, he's still 1) putting his heir, Melisandre, and the Wall at risk, 2) forced to wait for months in a situation he can't afford to, 3) hinging his entire strategy on the chance that Jon decides to march south. It's a bad plan. (And this is assuming he has with him a raven to Castle Black, which we can't verify)

However, we know that he has ravens to Winterfell*, that he knows the Boltons are expecting friendly information from those ravens**, and that he knows that waiting in the storm is a losing strategy***. Using the Karstark ravens to lull the Boltons into a false sense of victory before striking is far and away the better plan, and the more fitting in regards to his character.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

* 

"Answer me. If we were to loose these birds, would they return to the Dreadfort?" The king leaned forward. "Or might they fly for Winterfell instead?"
Maester Tybald pissed his robes.

** "I will ask you once again. What was in the message you sent to Winterfell?"
The maester quivered. "A m-map, Your Grace."

*** "Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved."

 

Stannis has Lady Bolton until Ramsay is killed; then he has to wait months before marrying her to avoid suspicion that she is carrying a Bolton heir.

The Boltons have the same availability as ravens to CB as Stannis: they might have ravens brought from other castles/settlements. So this is not proof either way.

It is also very unclear how faking his death would lure the Boltons out of Winterfell. If they think Stannis is dead, Roose would just wait for the Freys/Boltons to come back (at least outriders) and he would have no reason to march. How would  then Stannis arrive unnoticed to Winterfell and then take a well defended castle?

[Ruhail]

5 minutes ago, Tucu said:

Stannis has Lady Bolton until Ramsay is killed; then he has to wait months before marrying her to avoid suspicion that she is carrying a Bolton heir.

The Boltons have the same availability as ravens to CB as Stannis: they might have ravens brought from other castles/settlements. So this is not proof either way.

It is also very unclear how faking his death would lure the Boltons out of Winterfell. If they think Stannis is dead, Roose would just wait for the Freys/Boltons to come back (at least outriders) and he would have no reason to march. How would  then Stannis arrive unnoticed to Winterfell and then take a well defended castle?

Trojan Horse stratergy

[aryagonnakill#2]

On September 5, 2016 at 6:35 AM, Tucu said:

I am saying that Stannis could have any of the ravens from Deepwood Motte, Bear Island, Last Hearth or any of the 5 mountains clans trained for CB. Asha's and Theon's POV have very limited view of Stannis' resources; Tybald's ravens are not necessarily the only ravens available to Stannis.

That is not how Ravens work.  Ravens fly to the castle they were born in.  They cannot be trained.

[The Drunkard]

4 minutes ago, Tucu said:

Stannis has Lady Bolton until Ramsay is killed; then he has to wait months before marrying her to avoid suspicion that she is carrying a Bolton heir.

Regardless of what you call her, the point remains that she's (seemingly) Ned's daughter, a Stark by birth, and possessing her hasn't given either side a conclusive advantage.

The Boltons have the same availability as ravens to CB as Stannis: they might have ravens brought from other castles/settlements. So this is not proof either way.

Roose brought with him the Hornwood, Cerwyn and Slate maesters to care for Winterfell's ravens. He wouldn't have done so if he weren't equipped to send messages.

Before the war, Medrick had served Lord Hornwood, Rhodry Lord Cerwyn, and young Henly Lord Slate. Roose Bolton had brought them all to Winterfell to take charge of Luwin's ravens, so messages might be sent and received from here again.

The only ravens Stannis has that have ever been mentioned are those he took from Tybald. 

It is also very unclear how faking his death would lure the Boltons out of Winterfell. If they think Stannis is dead, Roose would just wait for the Freys/Boltons to come back (at least outriders) and he would have no reason to march. How would  then Stannis arrive unnoticed to Winterfell and then take a well defended castle?

Stannis has the Karstarks (or, at least, their uniforms), ravens that Roose is expecting intelligence from, key figures that the Boltons need to recapture (Reek & 'Arya'), and, unbeknownst to him, a force of Manderlys likely ready to go turncoat. Whether his plan is to lure the Boltons out or trick his way in, he's well-equipped to pull off some sort of deception.

[Tucu]

14 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

That is not how Ravens work.  Ravens fly to the castle they were born in.  They cannot be trained.

Actually we don't know how they are breed or trained. But we know that the white ravens are raised only in the Citadel are they manage to reach every major settlement in Westeros.

[Tucu]

1 hour ago, Ruhail said:

Trojan Horse stratergy

Why would Roose open the doors to any force that returns without Bolton and Frey commanders? He surely doesn't trust the northmen.

[Bowen Marsh]

On 8/29/2016 at 4:19 PM, Knight of valour said:

If jon snow never got stabbed and stannis wrote the pink letter how would jon react in them meeting because stannis lied to him and used him.

I doubt Jon could do anything about it.  Really, it is very unlikely that Stannis wrote the Pink Letter.  That was Ramsay who wrote the letter.  Jon had already been skating on thin ice and committing treason when the letter arrived.  The letter just forced Jon's hand and he had to make a public statement confirming his treason.  

[dariopatke]

4 hours ago, Tucu said:

Stannis has Lady Bolton until Ramsay is killed; then he has to wait months before marrying her to avoid suspicion that she is carrying a Bolton heir.

The Boltons have the same availability as ravens to CB as Stannis: they might have ravens brought from other castles/settlements. So this is not proof either way.

It is also very unclear how faking his death would lure the Boltons out of Winterfell. If they think Stannis is dead, Roose would just wait for the Freys/Boltons to come back (at least outriders) and he would have no reason to march. How would  then Stannis arrive unnoticed to Winterfell and then take a well defended castle?

No, Stannis has Neds daughter, a girl that means so much to Northmen that 2.5k clansmen want to die trying to save her. No they have way more ravens since they have 3 maesters.

If Stannis sent captured ships with Mormont forces (seriously where are Mormonts, it seems only Alysane is there to burn Barrowton  (entirely made from wood) Dustins and Ryswells will march to retake it, rebuild it and avenge amd they would do it ONLY if they know Stannis is dead. At that moment Roose has no allies.

Stannis can also send Theon with 63 other men to sneak in Dreadfort and take it, once Roose hears this he will ofc think that Stannis sent some men there to take it and leave WF to retake his ancestral seat.

3 hours ago, Tucu said:

Actually we don't know how they are breed or trained. But we know that the white ravens are raised only in the Citadel are they manage to reach every major settlement in Westeros.

We do, read Theon I WoW. We also know white ravens are smarter.

2 hours ago, Tucu said:

Why would Roose open the doors to any force that returns without Bolton and Frey commanders? He surely doesn't trust the northmen.

Other Northmen will riot once they see how Roose treats fellow Northmen. Both Ramsay and Hosteen are impulsive men who cam easily die and Arnolf is old.

[aryagonnakill#2]

4 hours ago, Tucu said:

Actually we don't know how they are breed or trained. But we know that the white ravens are raised only in the Citadel are they manage to reach every major settlement in Westeros.

Yes we do, ravens are born at a castle, and then sent to other castles.  When released the raven will fly home.  

You seem to be suggesting that Stannis can instruct a raven where to fly, that is simply not the case.

[Tucu]

11 minutes ago, dariopatke said:

We do, read Theon I WoW. We also know white ravens are smarter.

We are not told if training or breeding determines where they fly. Stannis talks about training. If they are just homing ravens, then all of Luwin's remaining ravens would only fly to Winterfell, cycling back to the fact that any ravens than could go to CB must have come from other castles, just like the ravens that Stannis could have.

 

1 hour ago, dariopatke said:

If Stannis sent captured ships with Mormont forces (seriously where are Mormonts, it seems only Alysane is there to burn Barrowton  (entirely made from wood) Dustins and Ryswells will march to retake it, rebuild it and avenge amd they would do it ONLY if they know Stannis is dead. At that moment Roose has no allies.

Stannis can also send Theon with 63 other men to sneak in Dreadfort and take it, once Roose hears this he will ofc think that Stannis sent some men there to take it and leave WF to retake his ancestral seat.

We do, read Theon I WoW. We also know white ravens are smarter.

Other Northmen will riot once they see how Roose treats fellow Northmen. Both Ramsay and Hosteen are impulsive men who cam easily die and Arnolf is old.

Stannis sends Jeyne to The Wall with only a few of his men, so he doesn't consider her key to his plans. He is betting on another Stark.

The Mormonts that burnt the ironmen ships are probably with Alys and Stannis. The rest in an unknown location with Maege.

At the time of the Red Wedding Roose had around 3500 men in the Riverlands plus around 600 left with Ramsay in the North. Most of them are alive and in Winterfell. Those are more than enough to stop any riot unless Stannis host is just outside the walls when the riot starts and the doors are opened.

The Ryswell and Dustin only have a left over army after the losses in the Riverlands and when Ramsay took Winterfell.

Not sure how Stannis would be able to get ice cold Roose to get out of Winterfell if his main adversary is dead.

[Tucu]

13 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Yes we do, ravens are born at a castle, and then sent to other castles.  When released the raven will fly home.  

You seem to be suggesting that Stannis can instruct a raven where to fly, that is simply not the case.

No, what I said is that Stannis could have collected ravens that can fly to CB from the Mormonts, Glover or any of the mountain clans that he visited. And that I am not sure how the maesters breed or train the ravens.

The Boltons would be in the same situation after Luwin's ravens escaped during the burning of Winterfell. Any remaining ravens would only fly to Winterfell, so ravens for CB would have to be collected from other castles.