On Jon Snow's ultimate fate

[MostlyMoody]

Here's why I think Jon won't become king:

1. Just because someone has kingly qualities, doesn't mean they will become a king. Aemon is wise, just etc. - wasn't ambitious enough to pursue the throne. Ned - same thing. 

2. If he is son of Rhaegar and Lyanna (I know, I said "IF", how dare I?!) the only one who can press that claim would be Howland Reed, maybe someone else if you stretch it. Basically the whole process of him ascending to the throne would either have to be excruciatingly long and intricate or everyone unanimously accepts Jon as king, or he kills everyone who fights his claim through another massive war akin to Bobby- B.

3. Narratively it's just too squeaky clean or unnecessarily complicated (depending on how that story goes).

I'll stick to my guns and not believe R+L=J, but I don't have a problem with that theory as it is. I have a problem with Jon becoming the king with barely any narrative precedent, short of foreshadowing. Keep in mind George has foreshadowed a great many things, which is why we have so many insane theories floating around here, and he has retconned a great many things (just look at his first draft of where the story was headed). 

Anyways here's a smiley face =]

[Mon ami]

Jon will get resurrected by the white walkers and he will become their thrall.  He will be made to fight against the living for a time.  The white walkers will take over the north and march south.  Dany and Drogon will stop their advance at the Trident.  Jon  will be one of wights that Dany will burn at the Trident.  His soul might warg into Ghost at the last moment and possibly live his second life in the wolf.  In other words, Jon's ultimate fate is to live his life in a dog's body. 

I also think Arya will die in the last book and live as Nymeria.  Her and Jon can finally be together.  They will mate as wolves and have a litter of their own.  The north will be a frozen wasteland at this point and it will stay that way for many years. 

[Greywater-Watch]

Let us assume, Jon would be re-surrected or that he was not even dead but only wounded after the last Jon-chapter.

Then apparently two claims might be revealed:

1. Recognition as a Stark (e.g. through Robb's will) =>

• Claim as Lord of Winterfell
  • this he already could have had from Stannis before, but refused
  • he might reconsider now, as:
    • this time it comes from Robb
    • he was killed/attacked as Lord Commander by his own men
• Claim as King of the North

2. Recognition as Rhaegar Targaryen's son (e.g. through Howland Reed or an evidence e.g. in Winterfell's crypt)

• Claim for the Iron Throne
• Advanced position for marrying Daenerys (of whose existance he does not know yet)

In any way, those two news on Jon Snow's origin/status are like swords - they cut both ways. The success of these will depend highly of the timing of their revelation. Because they will probably gain him as many supporters they will gift him with new enemies.

The Northmen? Recognition as

• a Stark will be appraised;
• a Targaeryen: Maybe well received to take revenge for Ned.

Stannis?

• Only as a Stark with claim to Winterfell would be ok
• Claim as King of the North: inacceptable
• Targaeryen: inacceptable

Roose Bolton?

• each claim would be his downfall, as he would not receive any mercy once his role in the Red Wedding and the fall of Winterfell was revealed (and Manderly already knows for both) => not ok for any claim

For the South (except the Lannisters):

• Stark Claim: ok
• Targaeryen Claim: appraised by some (Dorne), not sure for others

Daenerys (once landed or at least in contact with Westeros):

• Targaeryen: surprised but ok
• Stark: at this point of time indifferent

Braavos & The Iron Bank:

• Stark: probably ok
• Targaeryen: not ok

So, all in all: those possible claims Jon could come up with are dangerous as well, and the timing is crucial to step forward with them.

[velo-knight]

7 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Braavos & The Iron Bank:

• Stark: probably ok
• Targaeryen: not ok

So, all in all: those possible claims Jon could come up with are dangerous as well, and the timing is crucial to step forward with them.

Why would they have a problem with him as a Targaryen? They did business with the Targaryens for centuries, and were famously shafted by their usurpers. Restoring any Targaryen would be a very effective threat to any future would-be defaulters.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Jon is going to lead the Others back into the far north .

[Lost Melnibonean]

10 hours ago, Mon ami said:

Jon will get resurrected by the white walkers and he will become their thrall.  He will be made to fight against the living for a time.  The white walkers will take over the north and march south.  Dany and Drogon will stop their advance at the Trident.  Jon  will be one of wights that Dany will burn at the Trident.  His soul might warg into Ghost at the last moment and possibly live his second life in the wolf.  In other words, Jon's ultimate fate is to live his life in a dog's body. 

I also think Arya will die in the last book and live as Nymeria.  Her and Jon can finally be together.  They will mate as wolves and have a litter of their own.  The north will be a frozen wasteland at this point and it will stay that way for many years. 

Then what was the point of having Jon and Arya in story at all? 

[Greywater-Watch]

16 hours ago, velo-knight said:

Why would they have a problem with him as a Targaryen? They did business with the Targaryens for centuries, and were famously shafted by their usurpers. Restoring any Targaryen would be a very effective threat to any future would-be defaulters.

I thought that Braavos was not inclined to like dragons. So I assume that - at least once Daenerys with her dragons appears in Westeros - Targaeryens would be persona non grata for Braavos. But I may be wrong of course.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

On 10/12/2016 at 11:09 AM, Mon ami said:

Jon will get resurrected by the white walkers and he will become their thrall.  He will be made to fight against the living for a time.  The white walkers will take over the north and march south.  Dany and Drogon will stop their advance at the Trident.  Jon  will be one of wights that Dany will burn at the Trident.  His soul might warg into Ghost at the last moment and possibly live his second life in the wolf.  In other words, Jon's ultimate fate is to live his life in a dog's body. 

I also think Arya will die in the last book and live as Nymeria.  Her and Jon can finally be together.  They will mate as wolves and have a litter of their own.  The north will be a frozen wasteland at this point and it will stay that way for many years. 

One Ghost is as much a dog as Drogo is a snake. Second what?

I thought that Braavos was not inclined to like dragons. So I assume that - at least once Daenerys with her dragons appears in Westeros - Targaeryens would be persona non grata for Braavos. But I may be wrong of course.

You are right. If they seem to hate one thing that is the dragons.

[velo-knight]

3 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

I thought that Braavos was not inclined to like dragons. So I assume that - at least once Daenerys with her dragons appears in Westeros - Targaeryens would be persona non grata for Braavos. But I may be wrong of course.

 

3 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

One Ghost is as much a dog as Drogo is a snake. Second what?

You are right. If they seem to hate one thing that is the dragons.

I have not seen evidence for that. They were enemies of Valyria and hate slavery above everything else. I can see the FM considering the dragons a potential threat, and maybe even acquiring the means to kill them as a contingency, but so far everything Dany has done advances Braavosi interests while remaining compatible with their culture.

[Greywater-Watch]

1 minute ago, velo-knight said:

 

I have not seen evidence for that. They were enemies of Valyria and hate slavery above everything else. I can see the FM considering the dragons a potential threat, and maybe even acquiring the means to kill them as a contingency, but so far everything Dany has done advances Braavosi interests while remaining compatible with their culture.

Good point. I have forgotten to consider that Daenerys attitude towards slavery speaks in favour to her from the perspective of Braavos.

[velo-knight]

4 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Good point. I have forgotten to consider that Daenerys attitude towards slavery speaks in favour to her from the perspective of Braavos.

Plus, regardless of whether we as readers approve of her actions in Slaver's Bay, it's unquestionably in Braavos's geopolitical interests for her biggest rival, Volantis, to suffer a major supply shortage of slaves, and then lose wealth and manpower in a military attempt to recover it. Whether or not the Slaver Coalition outside Meereen is successful (I doubt it), I think Braavos is now positioned to expand the influence of their trade and financial sectors in the Free Cities.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, velo-knight said:

 

I have not seen evidence for that. They were enemies of Valyria and hate slavery above everything else. I can see the FM considering the dragons a potential threat, and maybe even acquiring the means to kill them as a contingency, but so far everything Dany has done advances Braavosi interests while remaining compatible with their culture.

This. Braavos on the same side as Aegon the Conqueror against Volantis. The enemy is slavery not dragons or Targaryens. 

[Jon's Queen Consort]

3 hours ago, velo-knight said:

I have not seen evidence for that. They were enemies of Valyria and hate slavery above everything else. I can see the FM considering the dragons a potential threat, and maybe even acquiring the means to kill them as a contingency, but so far everything Dany has done advances Braavosi interests while remaining compatible with their culture.

 I meant that the dragons are the, I don't know how to say it in English, the symbol that represents their oppressor. After all it’s not like they will gain anything from Dany she will not pay Baratheons’ debts so why bother?

[velo-knight]

3 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

 I meant that the dragons are the, I don't know how to say it in English, the symbol that represents their oppressor.

That's a decent point, but Valyria hasn't been a factor for half a millennium, and Braavos is now much more powerful, as well as has a recent history of doing business with both symbolic dragons and literal dragonriders.

3 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

After all it’s not like they will gain anything from Dany she will not pay Baratheons’ debts so why bother?

1. We don't know that Dany won't honor the debts, though she certainly might try and back out (possibly as leverage to get a better rate) If anything, this suggests a more helpful role for the Iron Bank: if you think someone who might not pay is likely to win (Dragons and a large army), you might be motivated to "go the extra mile" to ingratiate yourself to them. If Stannis looks particularly screwed, they may not only accept Daenerys, but actively help put her on the throne, all the while perhaps suggesting that the mines of Casterly Rock would provide ample income to repay the debts. Since they know the Lannisters can pay, and they know the Lannisters have committed atrocities against her family, they may feel they can win her cooperation.
2. In the worst-case scenario of not repaying the debt, it's still good business, because if they can't get their money back they can at least send a message that if you default on a debt, you may get overthrown.
3. It may be as you say, and they choose not to bother. In that case, this isn't really a plus or minus in anyone's column. But as far as speculating on Jon Snow's ultimate fate and likely kingship, I think their already existing business relationship - and the personal connection between Jon and Tycho Nestoris is likely to be a factor there.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

3 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

We don't know that Dany won't honor the debts,

Do you seriously believe that there is any possibility in heck that Dany will agree to pay the Baratheon's debts? She doesn't even see why Robert had a reason to rebel, she will agree to pay his debts with money she doesn’t have?

6 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

In the worst-case scenario of not repaying the debt, it's still good business, because if they can't get their money back they can at least send a message that if you default on a debt, you may get overthrown.

That would be interested. Both revenge on the dragons and sending a message.

10 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

It may be as you say, and they choose not to bother. In that case, this isn't really a plus or minus in anyone's column. But as far as speculating on Jon Snow's ultimate fate and likely kingship, I think their already existing business relationship - and the personal connection between Jon and Tycho Nestoris is likely to be a factor there.

At least with Jon they have something to gain and he is much more likely to even try paying the Barartheons' debts.

[velo-knight]

2 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

Do you seriously believe that there is any possibility in heck that Dany will agree to pay the Baratheon's debts? She doesn't even see why Robert had a reason to rebel, she will agree to pay his debts with money she doesn’t have?

Sure she might pay, but it's less likely, and I just outlined how that might actually push the Iron Bank to be more helpful to her if it looks like she has the upper hand. Whether she'll think the Dragon ought to pay is irrelevant if she feels grateful / they can offer her something she wants, while making the cost look like a punishment for their mutual enemies.

2 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

That would be interested. Both revenge on the dragons and sending a message.

I meant revenge on the lions and stags by backing the dragon. Even if the dragon doesn't repay you, she's not the one who initially borrowed, then refused to repay. The hope is that other people see that the stag didn't pay, and now the dragon is in charge again. This is definitely their "damage control" option, though.

2 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

At least with Jon they have something to gain and he is much more likely to even try paying the Barartheons' debts.

I suppose fundamentally I don't see the two of them going head-to-head quite like that. As with Daenerys, Jon is a natural enemy of the Lannisters, so either candidate can certainly have the "take the IT with the help of the Bank, then punish the Westerlands to pay the debt" plot happen. I doubt Tyrion will need to make good on the gold he's signed away to the sellswords, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was foreshadowing for Casterly Rock losing wealth.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

1 minute ago, velo-knight said:

Sure she might pay, but it's less likely, and I just outlined how that might actually push the Iron Bank to be more helpful to her if it looks like she has the upper hand. Whether she'll think the Dragon ought to pay is irrelevant if she feels grateful / they can offer her something she wants, while making the cost look like a punishment for their mutual enemies.

The Iron Bank will have its due. After all it wasn’t the Head of House Baratheon that made those debts, but the Sovereign of the Seven Kingdoms. I know it is just nitpicking and not totally true but technically it is true and much more likely than Dany paying.

4 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

I meant revenge on the lions and stags by backing the dragon. Even if the dragon doesn't repay you, she's not the one who initially borrowed, then refused to repay. The hope is that other people see that the stag didn't pay, and now the dragon is in charge again. This is definitely their "damage control" option, though.

I see, still I don't see Dany paying.

5 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

I suppose fundamentally I don't see the two of them going head-to-head quite like that. As with Daenerys, Jon is a natural enemy of the Lannisters, so either candidate can certainly have the "take the IT with the help of the Bank, then punish the Westerlands to pay the debt" plot happen. I doubt Tyrion will need to make good on the gold he's signed away to the sellswords, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was foreshadowing for Casterly Rock losing wealth.

I could be see it but it wouldn't had been fair either. The fair thing to do would had been the Iron Throne to pay the Iron Bank.

[velo-knight]

1 minute ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

The Iron Bank will have its due. After all it wasn’t the Head of House Baratheon that made those debts, but the Sovereign of the Seven Kingdoms. I know it is just nitpicking and not totally true but technically it is true and much more likely than Dany paying.

I'm not really sure what you're arguing here. The Iron Bank wants to be repaid, and now also wants to send a message about what happens to delinquent borrowers. If it looks like Daenerys will take the Iron Throne, they Iron Bank has a strong incentive to try and make her assume the Baratheon monarchy's debts. To do that, they know they need to go the extra mile, which might make them more helpful in a "strong Daenerys invasion" scenario. That way they can influence her to repay.

1 minute ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

I see, still I don't see Dany paying.

The point of that second scenario was to illustrate that the IB can benefit from Dany winning even if they don't get paid, as their 'fallback option'. They still send a message about delinquent borrowers, even though the new monarch has hurt them by refusing to take their predecessor's debts on the grounds of illegitimacy.

1 minute ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

I could be see it but it wouldn't had been fair either. The fair thing to do would had been the Iron Throne to pay the Iron Bank.

The Iron Throne can levy all the taxes it wants, and attaint whoever it wants. That's not unfair, that's just life. Does anyone doubt that at the end of ASoIaF there's going to be a new round of changes to who's in power? If I'm the Iron Bank, and I'm trying to get my gold, and the candidate I back is the political enemy of a faction with a lot of wealth, I'm probably going to suggest being repaid out of the spoils of war as a condition for my support.

[TyrionTLannister]

What would be the point of R+L=J if Jon doesn't become King at the end?

I don't think it's to fulfill a prophecy, for example, because if GRRM needed, say, the prince that was promised to be a Stark bastard and not a descendant of Aerys and Rhaella, he would've done it. Also, Bran's first chapter happens to be the first he wrote, and it's obvious if you read it that GRRM has always known that Jon isn't really Ned's son and is the rightful king of Westeros. For example:

Quote

“One day, Bran, you will be Robb’s bannerman, holding a keep of your own for your brother and your king, and justice will fall to you. When that day comes, you must take no pleasure in the task, but neither must you look away. A ruler who hides behind paid executioners soon forgets what death is.” That was when Jon reappeared on the crest of the hill before them. 

Their father understood as well. “You want no pup for yourself, Jon?” he asked softly. “The direwolf graces the banners of House Stark,” Jon pointed out. “I am no Stark, Father.” Their lord father regarded Jon thoughtfully. 

So he must have had this fact in mind since the beginning, and constructed Jon's entire storyline around it. This precedes his development of the numerous prophecies in the series.

[Clegane'sPup]

My best SWAG (scientific wild ass guess) on Jon's ultimate fate is that he will help restore WF and House Stark.