U.S. Politics 2017: Yes Virginia, There Is a Santa Claus

[Zorral]

Could be a John Le Carré Novel - this development in the investigation into Russia, Trump and the 2016 election:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/08/politics/joseph-mifsud-trump-russia-investigation/index.html

Quote

 

Joseph Mifsud, the Maltese academic suspected of being a link between the Trump campaign and Russian officials, was once a regular on the foreign policy circuit, attending conferences the world over. 

Now, after being identified as a key figure in the US special counsel investigation into Russian influence over the 2016 US presidential election, Mifsud has gone to ground. 

Last Thursday he disappeared from the private university in Rome where he teaches. Repeated attempts to reach him since have been unsuccessful, though he appears to have read some messages from CNN.

 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Well this is an interesting development, and objectively, well overdue, regardless of Trump:

Quote

After months of questioning President Donald Trump's temperament and fitness for office, Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., announced Wednesday that he would convene a hearing to examine the president's authority to use nuclear weapons.

The announcement of the Nov.14 hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which Corker chairs, amounts to a significant escalation of what has so far been a war of merely words between the powerful Republican and his party's standard-bearer.

"A number of members both on and off our committee have raised questions about the authorities of the legislative and executive branches with respect to war making, the use of nuclear weapons, and conducting foreign policy overall," Corker said in a statement Wednesday.

"This continues a series of hearings to examine those issues and will be the first time since 1976 that this committee or our House counterparts have looked specifically at the authority and process for using U.S. nuclear weapons. This discussion is long overdue, and we look forward to examining this critical issue," Corker said.

The announcement came less than a day after Trump delivered a combative speech aimed at North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, in which the president called North Korea a "dark fantasy" and a "military cult." Speaking in South Korea, Trump accused the hermit kingdom of being founded on "a deranged belief in the leader's destiny to rule as parent-protector over a conquered Korean Peninsula and an enslaved Korean people."

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/09/senate-hearing-to-probe-trumps-authority-to-use-nuclear-weapons.html

[Zorral]

11 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Sorry, but saying a position isn't arguing a point. I've stated why I think my idea is better. You've not done the same with other points. You can either choose to debate my position or establish yours. Don't blame me for you not doing it.

This is similar to an analysis that 538 did as well earlier today - and their conclusion is that the Dems took a lot of seats that should have likely been Dem seats anyway, at least based on how they performed when voting for Clinton. Their conclusion is more that incumbency was much less of a protective value than usual, and as a result this makes the House a bit more in play - that, and it's likely this will push more close seats with Rs to retire. 

As to my woe is me BS - it has a lot to do with gerrymandering which I still believe (as do Republicans) is more important to their success than general election, combined with a complete lack of discretion with respect to outside sources doing, well, actually illegal acts to influence the election. Chances are pretty good that Russia does the same thing they did last time, but more of it, as they know Trump isn't going to do shit against them. 

Ya -- yesterday I heard rethugs explaining Tuesday and presenting a remedy for it as "We have to do more to reach out to immigrants."

Which I actually heard as dog whistle, "We gotta get cracking and get even more voter repression, suppression and purges of the voter rolls."  I hear it that way particularly as all those voters in VA who had been restored to registered voter status had previously been disallowed to vote, because they'd served a prison sentence, very likely helped extremely to put Northam over the top -- as did the Young, and, by golly immigrants and all their conjoined activism.

Damned Dems PARTY leadership didn't do any of that.  As we see in my state.  So many Dems were purged illegally -- mysteriously! -- from the voter rolls, and those responsible didn't get investigated per se, suffered no consequence beyond, "Don't do that again."  Nor were those names restored as so many found out Tuesday, including an attorney friend -- who raised holy hell.  It took him about three hours, but he then got a special ballot and voted.  But he was white, male, wealthy and a lawyer -- and an activist lawyer at that.

As best anyone can tell, this purge has left the city and state's Dem establishment, long time office holders even more secure, so what the hell.  They don't want women, immigrants and Young reformists to challenge them.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

General Kelly is hard at work ruining his reputation as a decent man of integrity:

Quote

On Monday, as the Department of Homeland Security prepared to extend the residency permits of tens of thousands of Honduran immigrants living in the United States, White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly called Acting Secretary Elaine Duke to pressure her to expel them, according to current and former administration officials.

 Duke refused to reverse her decision and was angered by what she felt was a politically driven intrusion by Kelly and Tom Bossert, the White House homeland security adviser, who also called her about the matter, according to officials with knowledge of Monday’s events, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

“As with many issues, there were a variety of views inside the administration on a policy. The Acting Secretary took those views and advice [on] the path forward for TPS and made her decision based on the law,” said Jonathan Hoffman, the DHS spokesman, referring to a form of provisional residency called Temporary Protected Status. He added that it was also “perfectly normal for them to discuss the issue before she had reached a decision.”

A White House official confirmed the calls to Duke on Monday, but said Kelly’s frustration had to do “with Duke’s lack of decisiveness.” 

By extending the residency permits of the Hondurans, Kelly told her that the TPS decision “keeps getting kicked down the road” and that the additional delay “prevents our wider strategic goal” on immigration, the White House official said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/white-house-chief-of-staff-tried-to-pressure-acting-dhs-secretary-to-expel-thousands-of-hondurans-officials-say/2017/11/09/914d3700-c54a-11e7-a441-3a768c8586f1_story.html?pushid=5a0476f0d162f61d00000005&tid=notifi_push_breaking-news&utm_term=.2992ced5887c

[Ormond]

34 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

 (Mind you, I would tax recipients, not the estate-the family farm sob story is just ridiculous).  

 

Thank you! I've been thinking this for years, and it's gratifying to have someone who I believe knows way more about taxation than I do agree with me.    I think everyone should be given a hefty lifetime exemption of a million dollars or so for inheritance (then indexed for inflation), and anything above that should be taxed as part of their regular income. 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

18 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Thank you! I've been thinking this for years, and it's gratifying to have someone who I believe knows way more about taxation than I do agree with me.    I think everyone should be given a hefty lifetime exemption of a million dollars or so for inheritance (then indexed for inflation), and anything above that should be taxed as part of their regular income. 

So I would only have the exemption, whatever the level, apply to things that aren't cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, but that's me.  That might change one's views on what the exemption level should be.

[Fragile Bird]

I have heard so many Republicans brag that the tax bill will raise wages across the US I keep wondering if the states have secretly agreed to raise minimum wages.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

A partner of mine just sketched out the following for giggles as something that might actually make sense (so will never happen). Discuss:

20% corporate rate

8% repatriation rate for 2018, payable over 5 years.

Increase the standard deduction to $15,000.  Child care credit at $1500.

Pass throughs and individuals taxed at 12%, 25% and 37%, active or passive.

Carried interest taxed as ordinary income, or a 5 year holding period.

20% dividend and capital gain rate

State and local taxes deductible, but not in an amount greater than 5% of AGI.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Mind you, most of the Code is a giant jig saw puzzle, but this is worse than usual.  I agree that the policy incentives here are FUBAR.  The thing that makes me the stabbiest is honestly the estate tax repeal.  Fine, repeal it, but you have to repeal the basis step up too.  (Mind you, I would tax recipients, not the estate-the family farm sob story is just ridiculous).  

But what you are really angry about is the idea that it is possible to "permanently reinvest" profits offshore.  Under current law, the "passive foreign investment company" rules and the "controlled foreign corporation" rules do a pretty good job of imposing current tax on folks who own interests in passive activities offshore. The difficulty is US people who own interests in corporations that are actually engaged in business offshore, and also the intersection of the tax rules and the GAAP (nonsensical) rules.  

You obviously know more about this topic than I do, but this goes against a lot of what I’ve been reading and listening to as of late. I was left with the impression that both individuals and corporations are paying tax rates in the single digits by using offshore tax havens when they should be paying significantly more than that.  

Also, with regards to the estate tax, that only affects .2% of Americans, as I’m sure you know. It’s pretty laughable to call this legislation a middle class tax cut that’s not for the wealthy and won’t enrich the Trumps while including the repeal of the estate tax.

[Fragile Bird]

So Larry Kudlow has just popped up on CNBC and says the cap ex provisions will start in January, 2018, but the corporate tax rate reduction won't start until 2019, in the Senate bill I think.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I have heard so many Republicans brag that the tax bill will raise wages across the US I keep wondering if the states have secretly agreed to raise minimum wages.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Oh boy, that was a good one, Durable Avian who likes to slap the dimpled ball around.  

[Mlle. Zabzie]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

You obviously know more about this topic than I do, but this goes against a lot of what I’ve been reading and listening to as of late. I was left with the impression that both individuals and corporations are paying tax rates in the single digits by using offshore tax havens when they should be paying significantly more than that.  

Also, with regards to the estate tax, that only affects .2% of Americans, as I’m sure you know. It’s pretty laughable to call this legislation a middle class tax cut that’s not for the wealthy and won’t enrich the Trumps while including the repeal of the estate tax.

So, less so with individuals, for complicated reasons, but corporations do reduce their taxes through offshore subsidiaries.  It's because they are stripping income out of the US through tax-deductible payments to foreign subsidiaries in lower tax jurisdictions (meaning functionally everywhere).  That is, if I am US PharmaCo, I establish a [Swiss/Netherlands/UK] IP Co and transfer my current IP to that IP Co., often through a "platform contribution" arrangement such that the US basically gets some royalties but less and less over time as the contributed IP gets more obsolete.  I then set up a "principal" structure in that or another low-cost country which serves as the "entrepreneur" with respect to developing the IP.  This principal "contract manufactures" with other subsidiaries (who earn a margin of cost + X), and then contracts with subsidiaries around the world to be "limited risk distributors" again at cost + X to distribute the product.  Anything about the transfer pricing margins (which are usually relatively minimal) ends up back in the "entrepreneur's" hands where it is subject to tax at a very low rate.  That is very, very, very, simplified, but that's what's going on.  It's pretty well explained in those HP hearings from 5 or 6 years ago.

Just now, Fragile Bird said:

So Larry Kudlow has just popped up on CNBC and says the cap ex provisions will start in January, 2018, but the corporate tax rate reduction won't start until 2019, in the Senate bill I think.

Yes - this is expected.  Also no SALT deduction at all is expected.

[OldGimletEye]

Now conservative sorts of people, could we not get our supply side stories and our demand sides stories mixed up. I don’t want anyone questioning whether you're a true conservative.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/white-houses-cohn-touts-trickle-down-benefits-gop-tax-plan

Quote

As recently as late September, for example, Cohn argued that in the Republican tax plan, which he’s helped write, “Wealthy Americans are not getting a tax cut.” With Harwood, Cohn said something very different.:

.......................................

We create wage inflation, which means the workers get paid more; the workers have more disposable income, the workers spend more. And we see the whole trickle-down through the economy, and that’s good for the economy.”

Now conservative sorts of people, I’m going to take a wild guess here and say, you don’t think much of this demand side stuff. It’s all about the supply side. Now if you’re a supply sider all this talk about workers spending more money boosting the economy is a bunch of hippy Keynesian leftist talk.

That's because if you are supply sider, if workers, just hold their money, it’s not a problem because prices will adjust rapidly. There will be an adjustment in the rate of interest (it goes down) which will create more investment.

It’s only when you don’t think prices adjust rapidly to a new market clearing equilibrium that any of this crazy old Keynesian leftist, American hatin nonsense works.

What a good supply sider says, “it will increase the income of workers because of the additional capital. But, really I don’t give a shit whether the workers spend it or they invest it or just hoard the money under matressses or whatever cause either way their will be a productivity boom and it will be mornin America!!!”

[Mlle. Zabzie]

7 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

Now conservative sorts of people, could we not get our supply side stories and our demand sides stories mixed up. I don’t want anyone questioning whether you're a true conservative.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/white-houses-cohn-touts-trickle-down-benefits-gop-tax-plan

Now conservative sorts of people, I’m going to take a wild guess here and say, you don’t think much of this demand side stuff. It’s all about the supply side. Now if you’re a supply sider all this talk about workers spending more money boosting the economy is a bunch of hippy Keynesian leftist talk.

That's because if you are supply sider, if workers, just hold their money, it’s not a problem because prices will adjust rapidly. There will be an adjustment in the rate of interest (it goes down) which will create more investment.

It’s only when you don’t think prices adjust rapidly to a new market clearing equilibrium that any of this crazy old Keynesian leftist, American hatin nonsense works.

What a good supply sider says, “it will increase the income of workers because of the additional capital. But, really I don’t give a shit whether the workers spend it or they invest it or just hoard the money under matressses or whatever cause either way their will be a productivity boom and it will be mornin America!!!”

You realize that this whole plan is just about tax deductible robots, right?

[Fragile Bird]

I decided to watch  CNBC for a bit, just to see what those talking heads were saying, and their dismay at the idea of the corporate tax cut occurring in 2019 is, what, is that gonna happen if the Congress goes Democrat in November, 2018?

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

You realize that this whole plan is just about tax deductible robots, right?

Yeah. But, I couldn't help but pick apart Cohn's argument, which seems a tad inconsistent with the usual conservative/supply side view of things.

I mean I wouldn't want anyone to question his commitment to conservatism or anything. That would be just terrible.

[OldGimletEye]

I'm just totally shocked by this;

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/9/16628130/gary-cohn-tax-plan

Quote

Cohn, by contrast, is so new at this that he winds up actually saying “the most excited group out there are big CEOs, about our tax plan.”

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

Yeah. But, I couldn't help but pick apart Cohn's argument, which seems a tad inconsistent with the usual conservative/supply side view of things.

I mean I wouldn't want anyone to question his commitment to conservatism or anything. That would be just terrible.

Cohn also just came out and literally said that big-time CEOs are the group happiest with proposed tax reform.

Cohn, by contrast, is so new at this that he winds up actually saying “the most excited group out there are big CEOs, about our tax plan."

If I were Democrats, I'd take that quote, put it in an ad featuring Cohn and DT and just have it play on a loop, and make a huge ad buy out of it.

[OldGimletEye]

Now I wonder if I could get a couple of million bucks from Trump by telling him how awesome he is.

“President Orange Swamp Thing, you are the bestus, bestus, president ever. Lincoln and FDR, they are a couple of losers. Now, could I have a few million dollars please?”

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/11/9/16628008/trump-china-trade-fair-asia-trip-xi-jinping

Quote

Donald Trump, a man who said on his march to the White House that China was responsible for the “rape” of American workers, now says it’s actually the US’s fault that the two countries have an unbalanced economic relationship.

 

Quote

China has put a great deal of effort into making Trump feel special during his visit, and it seems to be working.

Xi has honored Trump with what Chinese officials described as a “state visit-plus” that included an unusually elaborate greeting for Trump as he stepped off Air Force One, with soldiers standing at attention, children waving Chinese and American flags and chanting, “Welcome,” a delegation of Chinese and American officials, and a military band. Xi also invited Trump and his wife to dinner inside the famed Forbidden City in Beijing — an honor that a US president hasn’t been granted since the founding of modern China.

Ming Wan, a China expert at George Mason University, told CNN that Xi has sought to treat Trump “almost like an emperor."

 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Trump to Meet Putin in Vietnam

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/09/trump-and-putin-set-to-meet-in-vietnam-kremlin-says.html?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

 

/I thought he couldn't go to Vietnam because of bone spurs or something.