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Mlle. Zabzie

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About Mlle. Zabzie

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  • Birthday 08/25/1977

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  1. Here is a (very small) piece of "good news": I have seen more than one "request for information" (RFI) go around my firm asking how a large employer could go about setting up an employee relief fund. This means that at least SOME employers are trying (yes, yes, yes, (1) they shouldn't have to, (2) maybe they should pay more/differently, but (3) given our system they also don't have to do anything, and at least some are).
  2. Look, I have a good friend whose spouse is an ER doctor in a large midwestern city. She is usually unflappable. She's literally seen it all. She is freaking the eff out. She works at two hospitals - one is a research hospital downtown attached to a university. That one is prepared. They have done drills, and have freed up bed space where they can, ordered more ventilators (and have a bunch on hand anyhow, but want more already in progress so that when things get bad hopefully they will have been delivered), have protocols etc. in place. The other is in the suburbs. It is not ready. Staff are not taking it seriously. They haven't done drills, ordered equipment or anything. She thinks she saw 4-5 covid patients the other day there but couldn't get tests. She's self-isolating for the near future. She probably won't see her kids again until summer. This is reality.
  3. Took me 5 tries to dial into a conference call. We got a notification that all of our providers (Intercall, Webex, Zoom, etc.) were having the same issue - complete overload based on call volume. So yay? @Ormond, good to hear. Please keep us posted.
  4. @Ormond, please take care of yourself. Maybe call your doctor and see what the guidance is currently in terms of self-quarantine? Do you have enough supplies for two weeks? If not, do you have someone who could shop for you and drop groceries at the door/peapod?
  5. This feels super dire since we are in the middle of it, with no end in sight. I continue to think that at least the state of New York is closed until, best case, Memorial Day, worse case Fourth of July. But, I think others are right, there will be a lot of pent up demand and things will start up again. We will need a federal government with the political will to basically print money and bail out small businesses and hourly workers. My own fear is that the current administration doesn't do that so this lags until 2021. I'm doing small things. I'm trying to connect actors and servers who are friends with my babysitter with families that need childcare right now and can afford to pay. I'm helping to organize volunteers in my neighborhood to deliver groceries etc. to the elderly in the neighborhood (at door, not coming in) who should not be going out, and in the worst case, to provide emergency pet care etc. It helps.
  6. News on this moves at warp speed, but in any event, as best I can tell, markets believe that this is a 3 month total shut down like in China, and unless the federal government steps in asap with a significant spending package (NOW), we’re in for a significant and severe recession. This means we are in for a significant and severe recession. The only glimmer of hope in my mind is that Trump is so obsessed with the markets that someone can convince him that spending (which Pelosi appears to have the will to authorize) is the only thing that will stabilize the markets, so it will go through. That said, I’m not sure the Senate will act responsibly.
  7. That makes sense. I’m cutting all these folks a tiny bit of slack right now given the stress.
  8. Don’t think it will. Futures suggest market was unimpressed. I think if more states follow Illinois and Ohio you are actually likely to get more of a bounce.
  9. I gotta say, we have all the things, including video conferencing, skype, etc. etc. But at least in my business, there really isn’t a substitute. When I’m on a call negotiating with an associate in my office, I can put the phone on mute and we can discuss real time what’s going on (I’ve tried through skype, but it doesn’t work as well if for no other reason than there is a delay and its hard to type and listen - different parts of the brain). Also, if, e.g., I get a call from the GC of a fortune 50 company, I can’t say “Hey [. ], hold on just a second while I patch in the first year.” I can IM them and ask them to come to my office. There is a lot of value in watching people interact with clients of all kinds. We had to pull back our WFH guidance because it wasn’t working out for our junior people. Finally, my business is already 24/7, but a full WFH would, I think be even more detrimental to mental health. There’s already a HUGE blur between working and personal hours. If we go virtual entirely that completely ceases to exist. It’s honestly not ok and something that my industry really struggles with. We will see what happens here, but I don’t think a full virtual model will work (mind you, as a partner, I would LOVE to decrease our rent expense, but at the end of the day, don’t think it is going to happen at scale).
  10. I actually think that if we go to a world of remote work that will be a huge loss. I’m not saying it shouldn’t be an option, but for people entering the workforce it is a huge loss for anything involving apprenticeship or client service. Also, it’s amazing how many “internet fights” I have to resolve that start because people are unwilling to even lift the phone, not to mention meet in person. So I completely disagree that there is no incentive to meet and collaborate in person. Also, as an extrovert, this is a horrifying and sad vision of the future. We are a social species. Limiting our interactions, while good for the moment, is overall very bad for us.
  11. I think it moved for the reason you suggested plus the reports that Pelosi and Mnuchin has a deal. If Moscow Mitch pushes it through the Senate promptly Monday then I think we have 24 hours of stability or at least only instability caused by other information. If he whines and grandstands it will be off 5-10 percent and might trip the circuit again.
  12. I’ve personally soft-circled Memorial Day as best case scenario here. So mid-June sounds do-able. And I’m in a state where we seem to have proactive leadership, so I think it is reasonable to hold out cautious hope.
  13. You up in Dutchess? Yeah, trust me, we bailed, though we will be going back and forth a tiny bit until we can’t. I have a couple of things I HAVE to do in the city on Monday. Otherwise, think I’ll basically be out of the city.
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