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House Frey: Robb's Offer vs. Tywin's offer


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On 5/27/2018 at 1:21 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Deal 2 was the better of the two, but if hindsight came into play I imagine Walder would have just not bothered to open his gates in AGOT and refuse the possibility of either deal. 

If he had known the future, sure, he would have kept that gate closed and helped the Lannisters.  He could even agree to hold Robb and wait for Tywin in exchange for the lordship over the riverlands.  

I guess I can understand why people are mad at the Freys for the red wedding but I don't see Walder as the devil that many Stark lovers seem to.  He was dragged into this conflict and made the best choices he could for his family.  Too bad he got his hands dirty in the process but did he really have much choice?  

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On 6/1/2018 at 8:50 PM, Lee-Sensei said:

He should have offered to fight for Joffrey in exchange for becoming Lord Paramout of the Trident. If he had done that, he wouldn't have gained the enmity of the North and the Riverlands.

He would have gained their enmity even then.  It shouldn't matter as long as house tully can't retaliate.  Were I counseling Walder, I would definitely advise him to make sure any deal guarantees the downfall of house tully.  Which he got in the end.  

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16 minutes ago, Noble Lothar Frey said:

He would have gained their enmity even then.  It shouldn't matter as long as house tully can't retaliate.  Were I counseling Walder, I would definitely advise him to make sure any deal guarantees the downfall of house tully.  Which he got in the end.  

A time from trouts is coming.

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On 6/1/2018 at 5:34 PM, Bernie Mac said:

No, quite clearly it was not.

  • Tywin's offer was peace, Riverrun and a Frey bride for the new Lord of Darry as well as Daven and forgiveness from the Crown, as well as the chance to have revenge on someone Walder now hates
  • Robb's offer was a continuation of the current, unwinnable war and a marriage to Edmure

One offer has more incentives than the other. 

Robb was winning.  Remember, the Freys are ready to turn on Robb even before he marries Jeyne.  It's quite clear that Tywin is making this offer long before Robb's position becomes untenable (and, lets be clear, even post-Blackwater Robb's position isn't "unwinnable").

Besides which, Tywin is offering status quo ante bellum plus a "meh" offer in marrying into House Darry (not a particularly notable House) and a decent catch in Daven Lannister.  Robb is offering (on his second marriage offer) a marriage into the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and into the royal family.  And what's the downside if the Freys keep fighting?  Not much, honestly.  Tywin's belief is in lending a hand up to those who bend the knee, so Walder has a limited downside (not going to be Reyne-d, basically).  Especially because of the very close family ties; for the sake of his nephews, Tywin is going to keep House Frey in power.

On 6/1/2018 at 5:34 PM, Bernie Mac said:

No, it does not. By that logic the Westerlings marring Robb would become the 'third' family or that the Flints of the Mountain Clans became the second house in the North when one of theirs married  Lord Stark. 

Riverrun is a far more valuable prize than the marriage to Edmure. It is kind of ridiculous to suggest otherwise. 

Actually this isn't necessarily true.  And this goes to your continuing lack of understanding of feudal politics.  Riverrun is a small-ish castle, well protected, but not particularly well-endowed with lands and holdings.  It's significance comes from the fact that it's the seat of House Tully.  Having a half-Frey Lord Paramount of the Riverlands is more important than Riverrun, especially when everyone in-universe acknowledges that Riverrun is a poisoned prize.

House Frey has both the power and the marital connections to make itself the greatest House in the combined North/Riverlands realm with those marriages.  They're already among the most powerful Houses in that "kingdom", and with that kind of favor they're unquestionably in "most favored" status.

On 6/1/2018 at 5:34 PM, Bernie Mac said:

You do realize that Cat did not have the authority to marry off her brother, right? This is not how the feudal society works. 

Both Walder and Cat are aware of what she has the power to grant, a marriage to Robb and Arya is what she can grant. 

No, you don't understand.  Cat has no authority to marry off her son, either.  Walder drops a couple strong hints that what he wants is a marriage into House Tully; at this point, marrying Robb is not as attractive a possibility to Walder as marrying Edmure, and if Robb pulls Edmures chestnuts out of the fire (as he does), that is how he can force Edmure to accept the marriage as well.  Cat should know this, too.  The reaction in-universe also makes it clear that Catelyn gave up too much.

On 6/1/2018 at 5:34 PM, Bernie Mac said:

No, the 'joy' marriage was him screwing over the Westerlings

Even from the grave, Lord Tywin's dead hand moves us all. "Joy is my late uncle Gerion's natural daughter. A betrothal can be arranged, if that is your wish, but any marriage will need to wait. Joy was nine or ten when last I saw her."
"His natural daughter?" Lady Sybell looked as if she had swallowed a lemon. "You want a Westerling to wed a bastard?"
 
It is only screwing the Frey's if the Westerlings accept the marriage proposal for the heir of the Crag, if they do one of Walder's bastards misses out on Joy but they still gained Lancel and Daven (and perhaps a suitable replacement for Joy. 

Yeah sorry that's my mistake, was thinking about the Lannister's lack of fidelity in general, not towards the Freys specifically.

On 6/1/2018 at 5:34 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Lancel is the new Lord of Darry and pretty high up in the succession line for Casterly Rock and the West. Daven was set to marry the only daughter of Lord Redwyne before his Frey bride came into play. These are hardly unimportant marriages. That is quite the stretch, even for you.

Darry is a weak House, far weaker than many others that Walder has gotten his kids married into.  And marrying into the female line isn't particularly important; all that the Lannisters really give up, there, is a potentially-bigger dowry.

On 6/1/2018 at 5:34 PM, Bernie Mac said:

and? that was never part of the deal to begin with. 

are you somehow suggesting that only Overlordship of the Riverlands trumps a marriage to Edmure? Come on.

Yes, of course I am.  Under Robb's terms, the Freys get a half-Frey Lord Paramount of the Riverlands.  About the only better thing to get is the actual Lordship over the Riverlands.

On 6/1/2018 at 5:34 PM, Bernie Mac said:

You may have missed this but Robb was expecting Walder to send his army North to help him win back the North

what they think is my main thrust up the causeway, then we have a chance. Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men. I mean to divide them into three battles and start up the causeway a half-day apart.

the military position the Twins are in after the Red Wedding is far more desirable than the one Robb was about to leave him in.

As I said before, of the two deals Tywin's is clearly the superior one but I imagine that had Walder the benefit of hindsight he would have rejected both deals. 

I mean, Walder doesn't need the benefit of hindsight - he sacrifices all credibility and honor and it isn't a secret in Westeros what comes of breaking the taboo of guest right.  This was all 100% foreseeable.  And breaking that ancient tradition, stronger than law, is part and parcel of his deal with Tywin.  If you want to weigh the offers, then you HAVE to weigh that.  Your point is that while Walder had less to gain from Tywin's offer, he also ensured that he would lose nothing, whereas Robb's offer was better (it was, by the way) but entailed more risk.  But the fact that House Frey is going to be hunted like animals for the rest of the series is unquestionably something Walder could and should know is coming.  So the fact that he won't hold Riverrun, that his kids and grandkids are going to be murdered, and that everything he gained will be stripped away... that all has to gbe factored in as well.  That is NOT a "benefit of hindsight" thing, or not entirely.

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On 5/26/2018 at 1:48 PM, Noble Lothar Frey said:

To call those deals an offer is putting things too kindly.  My opinion, Lord Walder Frey had to come to the table willing to agree to a deal.  The rest was just haggling because refusing to make these deals with Robb and Tywin could cost his family very dearly.  

  • Robb's Deal - Assume the Starks won their rebellion and became an independent kingdom that includes the North and the Riverlands.  Also assume that Robb has an ounce of decency and carried out his end of the deal, meaning he marries a daughter of House Frey, Arya is made to marry Elmar, BW and LW continue their fostering.  
  • Tywin's Deal - The Red Wedding takes place, the Starks are defeated and lose their home.  Riverrun goes to the Freys, Roose becomes the Warden of the North and gets Winterfell, Walda marries Roose, Tywin dies, Joffrey dies, etc.  Basically what happened in the books.

 

Which outcome is sweeter for the Frey family?  My opinion is Deal #2 but let us read yours.

 

The second deal has the added bonus of paying back Robb for his disrespect.  I choose #2.

 

Deal #1  - This assumes Robb won the rebellion and he finally becomes king of the north.  He won't be any richer.  The north won't be any stronger.  Trade with the south may decrease.  And the Starks will come back begging for help with their tails stuck between their legs when the Others come marching on their lands.  A marriage alliance with an independent north is bad for the future of House Frey.  It may bring more prestige because of his daughter marrying a king but that king won't be any richer than he is now.  

Deal #2 - Walder Frey actually got everything he wanted except the marriage of a daughter to someone with the title of king.  Walda married the warden of the north, owner of winterfell, and lord paramount.  He got a hated enemy's castle.  His two boys are still fostered with a great house, Bolton.  They're back on good terms with the king of the land.  

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On 6/6/2018 at 10:18 PM, cpg2016 said:

Robb was winning.

No, not by the end of ACOK and certainly not by the time he returned to Riverrun and was desperate to regain the Freys. He was losing, pretty much lost according to some. 

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Remember, the Freys are ready to turn on Robb even before he marries Jeyne.

No, they were not. You are confused. GRRM points out that should Robb have continued to be losing Walder would have found some way to leave him, he says nothing of turning on him. Just makes it clear that Walder was not going to go down with the ship, which is pretty rational. 

It should also be noted that the agreement he made with Cat had nothing to do with Robb fighting an endless war for the crown. The deal for the marriage was for Robb to cross the bridge and military support to win back Riverrun, the Freys completed their part of the deal Robb did not. 

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  It's quite clear that Tywin is making this offer long before Robb's position becomes untenable 

No, it is not. Clear suggests evidence from the books, please provide this clear evidence of Tywin and the Freys making a deal before the Blackwater. 

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Besides which, Tywin is offering status quo ante bellum plus a "meh" offer in marrying into House Darry (not a particularly notable House)

and their lands. That is hardly a 'meh' marriage. It is actually a great marriage, her children would be Lords. 

and they are one of the prominent Houses of the Riverlands. 

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Robb is offering (on his second marriage offer) a marriage into the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and into the royal family.

It is just a marriage, lands and titles, which the second offer granted, are better than a marriage. 

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And what's the downside if the Freys keep fighting?  Not much, honestly.

Robb wanted the Frey army to abandon their homeland while there was an 70k royal army very close by. There is a very legitimate downside to continuing fighting.

Peace means being able to rebuild and plan for winter, peace is always the better option than a fight in an unwinnable war. 

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Tywin's belief is in lending a hand up to those who bend the knee, so Walder has a limited downside (not going to be Reyne-d, basically).  Especially because of the very close family ties; for the sake of his nephews, Tywin is going to keep House Frey in power.

Sure, but he could just as easily wipe out Walder and Stevron's branch and install Emmon as the Lord. 

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Actually this isn't necessarily true. 

Yeah, it is. Or do you have evidence of how the Flints of the Mountain Clans became the second most influential house in the north when their daughter married Lord Stark.  Your premise was flawed. 

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And this goes to your continuing lack of understanding of feudal politics.

YAWN Don't you think you need to get some new material by now? People who can actually prove their arguments don't need to constantly point out how knowledgeable they are on the subject, their argument in the discussion should be able to do that without the need for them to boast. Your insecurities on this are not subtle. 

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Riverrun is a small-ish castle, well protected, but not particularly well-endowed with lands and holdings.

they are not? Citation for this? Please quote the passage from the books that state or suggest that Riverun is not well-endowed with lands or holdings. They were always one of the most powerful Houses in the Riverlands

Placed as it was, Riverrun soon proved to have great strategic value, and the petty kings contending during the age of anarchy soon began to vie for the support of House Tully. Axel and his descendants grew wealthy and powerful, and in time became the bulwark of many a river king

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  It's significance comes from the fact that it's the seat of House Tully. 

You are being ridiculous, name recognition did not make them wealthy and poweful before they were Overlords. 

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Having a half-Frey Lord Paramount of the Riverlands is more important than Riverrun, especially when everyone in-universe acknowledges that Riverrun is a poisoned prize.

As is being married to a Tully when Robb was abandoning the Riverlands and the Crown's army was at its largest we have ever seen in the series. 

 

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No, you don't understand.

Yes, yes dear, no one understands but you, what a curse it must be for you Cassandra. 

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  Cat has no authority to marry off her son, either.

She actually does, Ned has left her as the ruler of the North. 

"Yes," Ned said, in words that would brook no argument. "You must govern the north in my stead, while I run Robert's errands.

Furthermore he is just outside and she even gives him the option of backing down but he accepts the deal. 

"I consent," Robb said solemnly. He had never seemed more manly to her than he did in that moment. Boys might play with swords, but it took a lord to make a marriage pact, knowing what it meant.

She is a) not in a position to ask Edmure if he accepts and b)has no right to offer it in the first place. For someone who clams that others don't understand feudal politics it is laughable that you think Cat can barter with the heir of Riverrun's marriage. 

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Walder drops a couple strong hints that what he wants is a marriage into House Tully; 

Of course he does, but anyone who understands feudal politics would be aware that Cat is not in a position to offer his hand in marriage. 

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 The reaction in-universe also makes it clear that Catelyn gave up too much.

 

No, it is not. Name all these in universe characters who think Cat gave up too much as once again I think you are full of shit on this matter. 

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Darry is a weak House, far weaker than many others that Walder has gotten his kids married into. 

Sure, but it comes with lands. A female Frey gets to become the Lady of the House and as we see from Jaime's chapters the Freys took control of the rule of those lands.  It is a pretty good deal for Walder. 

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Yes, of course I am.  Under Robb's terms, the Freys get a half-Frey Lord Paramount of the Riverlands.

Except they would not, Edmure lost his lands. Everyone could see that was on the table as soon as Robb started on planning exiting the Riverlands with his entire Northern army. 

The Riverlands, at full strength, were screwed against 35k Lannisters at the start of the series, they would not have stood a chance now that their forces were depleted and the Lannisters army had more than doubled. 

 

 

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On 6/1/2018 at 8:50 PM, Lee-Sensei said:

He should have offered to fight for Joffrey in exchange for becoming Lord Paramout of the Trident. If he had done that, he wouldn't have gained the enmity of the North and the Riverlands.

I would have pinned the Stark host down and sent ravens to Tywin to come finish them off.  

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