Northmen their Cutting Losses

[Quoth the raven,]

If the Red Wedding had not taken place and the Starks continued to make mistakes, do you see any more of their bannermen defecting to Joffrey in order to cut their losses?  We know of the Karstars, ofcourse.  How about Lady Dustin?  If Robb was losing and his chances are fasting diet slim, would Lady Dustin defect to Joffrey's side?

[Ylath's Snout]

At some point maybe but the Northern Houses do seem fiercely loyal. It took the RW and the resulting hostages to force most of them into subservience and even after that the "Great Northern Conspiracy" might be a thing.

It is worth remembering that most House in the North that might openly rebels against the Stark would be in no position to receive support from the south. The Twins, The Neck and Moat Celin makes sure of that. If Walder approves of the frankly pretty nice Roslin-Edmure match then it is in his interests to make sure that the Tully retain hold of the Riverlands and that seems very unlikely if the Stark cause collapses.

That said if you assume that Robb would make nothing but critical mistakes until the day he died then sure there is a breaking point but that seems a bit unreasonable. Robb isn't the perfect schemer but he isn't an idiot and would learn from his mistakes to some degree.

Also the Karstarks just went home they didn't join up with Joff army, they were in defiance of the Stark not outright rebellion.

[Wm Portnoy]

I am sure many will dessert Robb as soon as they know he's losing the war.  They don't want to come out on the losing side.  Bolton, Dustin, Karstark, and others.

[Bernie Mac]

2 hours ago, Quoth the raven, said:

If the Red Wedding had not taken place and the Starks continued to make mistakes, do you see any more of their bannermen defecting to Joffrey in order to cut their losses?

Not necessarily defect, but I can see far fewer refusing to go back South, leaving their lands exposed again and fighting an unwinnable war. Their would definitely be northmen who would want to cut their losses.  Unlike at the start of the war Robb would not be in a position to threat others, either directly or indirectly, to do as he commands. 

Though Cat does point out that defections to the crown was always a possibility. 

If you turn your tail and retreat to Winterfell, your lords will lose all respect for you. Some may even go over to the Lannisters. 

2 hours ago, Ylath's Snout said:

At some point maybe but the Northern Houses do seem fiercely loyal.

They don't appear to be any more loyal than the average realm. Like every overlord Stark is going to have better relationships with some Houses than he does others, some are going to be loyal others less so.

There are 7,000 Northmen at the Twins and even before a single hostage was taken half of them were against Robb. There could have been more, men from the cavalry who Roose did not get a chance to conspire with, men from the infantry who he either did not trust or knew would have been against Robb, but not necessarily in favor of Roose. 

[Ylath's Snout]

3 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

They don't appear to be any more loyal than the average realm.

Maybe I'm wrong but I'm having a hard time seeing lords from the Reach or the Westerland plotting something like the "great Northern conspiracy"* if the Tyrells or Lannisters had gone through the ringer like House Stark. Or I could just be buying into all the talk about Northern loyalty that made the RW so shocking.

The BoB isn't exactly the same as it seems to be more of a smallfolk vigilante than the plot of noblemen.

 

*That is of course assuming that there is some sort of GNC afoot.

[Bernie Mac]

13 minutes ago, Ylath's Snout said:

Maybe I'm wrong but I'm having a hard time seeing lords from the Reach or the Westerland plotting something like the "great Northern conspiracy"* if the Tyrells or Lannisters had gone through the ringer like House Stark.

Tywin' second army with Jaime had been beaten, as were his backup force with Stafford and Robb was in the West trying to do to the Westerlands what Tywin did to the Westerlands. On top of that Tywin was facing off against the Reach, Stormlands, North, Riverlands, Narrow Sea Islands and his men remained loyal despite the overwhelming odds against him. 

Plus the Great Northern Conspiracy, and to be honest I doubt it is as great as fans want it to be, is helped enormously by the Boltons; Ramsay is a psychopath who sickens Dustin (who is the next strongest faction after Roose and Wyman), she has no desire to see him in control while Roose's involvement at the Red Wedding will have angered most Northmen no matter of their feelings towards the Starks. 

A good example of this can be seen in Wyman, before the Red Wedding is actively bartering for the hand of Lady Hornwood for either him or his son, money so he can build himself a navy and the control of the silver mines and after he does all this he reminds Rodrik and Luwin that he has other options available to him

His lordship waited until the table had been cleared before he raised the matter of a letter he had received from Lord Tywin Lannister, who held his elder son, Ser Wylis, taken captive on the Green Fork. "He offers him back to me without ransom, provided I withdraw my levies from His Grace and vow to fight no more."

After the red wedding he is hell bent on getting revenge for on the Boltons and Freys for the death of his son

GRRM has given pragmatic reasons why the Boltons are doomed to fail, but for some reason fans think it is all down to a unique relationship that the Starks have with their vassals. 

Plus before the Red Wedding Winterfell was captured Rodrik could not even raise 2k men to retake it after waiting months for them to come. The Kartarks, despite being the furthest away, sent men, most of the north did not.

 

[Ylath's Snout]

3 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Tywin' second army with Jaime had been beaten, as were his backup force with Stafford and Robb was in the West trying to do to the Westerlands what Tywin did to the Westerlands. On top of that Tywin was facing off against the Reach, Stormlands, North, Riverlands, Narrow Sea Islands and his men remained loyal despite the overwhelming odds against him.

Well sure but that is nowhere near as bad as the Starks have been cut down to.

All those forces wanted to take on the Lannisters sure but they going at each other too or at the very least not working together.

For the loyalty of Westerland lord to be tested the same way almost all the Lannister must be dead with just a few young members alive and in-hiding, the Rock taken by a treacherous Westerlands House and several key hostages in enemy hands. Not really the same IMHO.

[Bernie Mac]

31 minutes ago, Ylath's Snout said:

Well sure but that is nowhere near as bad as the Starks have been cut down to.

They have mostly been cut down by their own though, if their own norther vassals were more loyal the Starks would not be in so poor of a position. 

31 minutes ago, Ylath's Snout said:

All those forces wanted to take on the Lannisters sure but they going at each other too or at the very least not working together.

They don't need to. The fact that the vast majority of the kingdom was against them and they still remained loyal is pretty telling. 

Robb was literally stabbed in the back by his own vassal, while half of the 7,000 Northemen at the Red Wedding had no problem with him being killed and yet we are to believe that the northmen are the most loyal in the series? Robb at Winterfell has to threaten the Greatjon with execution to stop him returning home. The Dustins and Ryswells only send men with Robb out of fear of the Starks. 

there are far more examples of northern disloyalty to the Starks than any other Overlord in the series. the only reason people think the northmen must be more loyal is because it is the classical fantasy trope, the hero's followers do so out of love and respect and the villains followers out of fear and greed.

 

31 minutes ago, Ylath's Snout said:

For the loyalty of Westerland lord to be tested the same way almost all the Lannister must be dead with just a few young members alive and in-hiding, the Rock taken by a treacherous Westerlands House and several key hostages in enemy hands. Not really the same IMHO.

eh? the northern loyalty was tested long before the 'deaths' of bran and rickon. Winterfell was captured and most of the north sent no men, even the manderly's only sent a few hundred. a paltry 2k was sent to rescue Robb's heirs. 

 

[Ylath's Snout]

2 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

They have mostly been cut down by their own though

I'd argue that the Boltons are a special case as they have a long history of being a very ambitious second-strongest-House-In-The-North. Treachery from them isn't suprcing.

5 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

while half of the 7,000 Northemen at the Red Wedding had no problem with him being killed and yet we are to believe that the northmen are the most loyal in the series?

I can't remember were I saw it but I've watched a pretty compelling video about how Roose intentionally put his own troops in safe positions durings battles he commanded while he let more loyal noblemen's troops take the brunt of the damage. If that were the case Roose having a lot of fresh troops loyal to him isn't surprising.

(I am of the opinion that Westeros feudal culture means that troops sever their bannerman not the lord/king commanding the bannerman. I have seen other argue differently)

11 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

eh? the northern loyalty was tested long before the 'deaths' of bran and rickon. Winterfell was captured and most of the north sent no men, even the manderly's only sent a few hundred. a paltry 2k was sent to rescue Robb's heirs. 

 

This is TBH could be a very big counter to Northern Loyalty. On the other hand, it might be argued that 2000 men is server overkill for taking back a castle held by less than 20 Ironborn. The standard formula I have heard calculating how many men are needed to storm a castle is 3 to 6 attacker for each defender. Overcommitting to taking back WF would left other holdings needlessly under defended.

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, Ylath's Snout said:

I'd argue that the Boltons are a special case as they have a long history of being a very ambitious second-strongest-House-In-The-North. Treachery from them isn't suprcing.

right, but when one of us is arguing that the north has the most loyal vassals the Boltons and their 3,500 supporters (at the time half of Robb's northern army or just under a fith of his original host) wanted Robb dead the argument that the Starks somehow inspire more loyalty than their peers looks fairly dubious. 

in fact when GRRM was asked why there are so few Starks compared to Lannisters one of the reasons he cites is the rebellions they have faced in the last century

It's also true that there are many more Lannisters. It also has to be taken into consideration that the North has had frequent revolts and other such problems, that there have been rebel lords in the past, that they've dealt with the Kings-beyond-the-Wall, and the revolt of Skagos, and everything else that's occured in the last hundred years. -grrm

The Starks are no better or worse than the average realm of Westeros when it comes to vassal loyalty, this need to turn them into snowflakes cheapens the series. Think of medieval europe, no one dynasty had a monopoly on loyal subjects, it was dependent on the ruler, some had better and some worse. It was more down to the indiviual than it was the last name. 

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I can't remember were I saw it but I've watched a pretty compelling video about how Roose intentionally put his own troops in safe positions durings battles he commanded while he let more loyal noblemen's troops take the brunt of the damage.

Well first of all it has nothing to do with putting loyal noblemen' troops in harms way as the Freys are just as much noticed by Tyrion at the battle of the Green Fork. What he did do was keep his own men in reserve, which is pretty much what any general doing when fighting a war they are not particularly invested in. Jaime does the exact same thing when he tells the Blackfish that the first wave he will face at the siege of Riverrun will be the riverland army he has with him, then it will be the Freys and then finally the Westerland troops. 

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If that were the case Roose having a lot of fresh troops loyal to him isn't surprising.

of course not, but we are still talking just under a 1/5th of Robb's original host being against him, that is quite significant. Especially when it only includes the men Roose thought would be for him, others could have disliked both Roose and the Boltons and not been considered at all. 

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(I am of the opinion that Westeros feudal culture means that troops sever their bannerman not the lord/king commanding the bannerman. I have seen other argue differently)

no, you are correct. which means the average person from the white harbor, dreadfort or bear island lands don't really care about the Starks. 

The Starks, like any other Overlord, are reliant on the relationships they have with their vassal lords. From what we have seen these Lords are no more loyal than the average realm in Westeros. 

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This is TBH could be a very big counter to Northern Loyalty. On the other hand, it might be argued that 2000 men is server overkill for taking back a castle held by less than 20 Ironborn.

Rodrik sent ravens telling of how the North's capital and its heirs captured, he did not specify how many were meant to come.  But given that Deepwood Motte  had already been taken, the coast was under their control and Rodrik had just fought some who escapted at Torrhens square he would almost certainly have not planned the battle on it only being 20. 

Theon expected more, he even notes how the Umbers, who neighbor the Boltons, were spotted on their way

The Umbers are gathering beyond the Last River as well. I'll have an army at my gates before the moon turns, and you bring me only ten men?"

but is then surprised at how they never actually turn up. 

Here and there he even saw the bull moose of the Hornwoods. But no Glovers, Asha saw to them, no Boltons from the Dreadfort, no Umbers come down from the shadow of the Wall.

So it seems the Umbers were hedging their bets even before the Greatjon was captured. And they were not the only ones who ignored the call. 

Quote

 

The standard formula I have heard calculating how many men are needed to storm a castle is 3 to 6 attacker for each defender. Overcommitting to taking back WF would left other holdings needlessly under defended.

Right, except Rodrik has no idea how many men it will be as shortly before the battle Theon is outraged when Asha comes to Winterfell and only leaves him with 20 rather than the 200 he requested. 

 

[hodorisfaclessman]

13 hours ago, Quoth the raven, said:

If the Red Wedding had not taken place and the Starks continued to make mistakes, do you see any more of their bannermen defecting to Joffrey in order to cut their losses?  We know of the Karstars, ofcourse.  How about Lady Dustin?  If Robb was losing and his chances are fasting diet slim, would Lady Dustin defect to Joffrey's side?

Well minus red wedding roose still has the issue the someone may talk that his son burnt winterfell (he may betray robb or just have ramsey killed) its hard to say given we know through marriage tywin had a backdoor communication to the freys 

The northmen planed to slip back north through secret routes no one (esp not balon) knew about thus massively blindsiding the ironborn plan, they may have still reaved riverlands and north etc but the sudden appearance of so many troops would have hugely dented the plan. The north and riverlands would have been engaged in a war vs ironborn 

Things prob would have proceeded similar but dorne would get involved in war (after the viper possibly possibly posions tywin) 

The ex factor is after posioning joff does lf approach the north and free sansa etc , probably releases her to robb and offrs to bring vale into war ....in exchange for something of course

[Bernie Mac]

4 minutes ago, hodorisfaclessman said:

 

The northmen planed to slip back north through secret routes no one (esp not balon) knew about thus massively blindsiding the ironborn plan,

Not quite, Robb was going to use the brunt of his host to smash Moat Cailin in the hope that the ironborn would be distracted and not notice other northern parties sneaking in these secret routes. His plan, had Victarion still have been there, may not have worked or taken on significant casualties. 

[hodorisfaclessman]

Just now, Bernie Mac said:

Not quite, Robb was going to use the brunt of his host to smash Moat Cailin in the hope that the ironborn would be distracted and not notice other northern parties sneaking in these secret routes. His plan, had Victarion still have been there, may not have worked or taken on significant casualties. 

His plan would have suceeded easily man he dosnt need ro smash moat calin just bypass it, the entire crux of balons plan is he belives if calin is held the northern army (about half the norths fighting men and their best too including much of the leadership) is stranded south with no easy passage out.....robb points out that this is wrong  due to passages through swamp (something even some north lords prob didnt know)

Thus He doesnt need to storm the moat just leave enough men to besiege it and starve them out  

If vic had been there with the iron fleet hed have left a part of his forces to help seal them in,if not just a small party...either way as we saw the remaining ironborn were in a bad way anyway due to guerilla warfare ! The rest would go north to defend their coastline and drive northmen out...balon would have been wrongfooted completely

[Bernie Mac]

1 minute ago, hodorisfaclessman said:

His plan would have suceeded easily

We certainly don't know that, but you are clearly being a but blase about just how hard the task would have been with Victarion still there, he would have been the only person to have ever taken Moat Caiin from the south.   What he originally wanted to do was sail home but the Vale was cut of from him, this was his last option 

1 minute ago, hodorisfaclessman said:

 

man he dosnt need ro smash moat calin just bypass it,

yeah, that is not really an option. In its entire existence it has never been defeated by an army marching from the southern. 

Greatjon, you shall lead the van against Moat Cailin. Your attack must be so fierce that the ironborn have no leisure to wonder if anyone is creeping down on them from the north."

The Greatjon chuckled. "Your creepers best come fast, or my men will swarm those walls and win the Moat before you show your face. 

 

Robb needed Moat Cailin to be attacked for it to have any chance of succeeding. 

 

 

[hodorisfaclessman]

15 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

We certainly don't know that, but you are clearly being a but blase about just how hard the task would have been with Victarion still there, he would have been the only person to have ever taken Moat Caiin from the south.   What he originally wanted to do was sail home but the Vale was cut of from him, this was his last option 

yeah, that is not really an option. In its entire existence it has never been defeated by an army marching from the southern. 

Greatjon, you shall lead the van against Moat Cailin. Your attack must be so fierce that the ironborn have no leisure to wonder if anyone is creeping down on them from the north."

The Greatjon chuckled. "Your creepers best come fast, or my men will swarm those walls and win the Moat before you show your face. 

 

Robb needed Moat Cailin to be attacked for it to have any chance of succeeding. 

 

 

Again he doesnt need to take it 

Balons entire strategy centres on bottling up the northern army south...he feels no army can get past moat calin marching north and no army can get north  any other way, robbs forces bypass it with the hidden swamp routes and take his army north

 

Thats not to say they wont take moat calin back  just that they have no overall strategic need to , the plan seems to be to strike it first as its the nearest ironborn force ,greatjohn will make a distracting attack while jons force take the other walls by complete suprise from the north .....that said they could just as easily have left the small already besieged ironborn force there to rot and marched on

[Bernie Mac]

1 minute ago, hodorisfaclessman said:

Again he doesnt need to take it 

eh? of course he does. Just like the Boltons had to. 

 I corrected you on your wrong assumption that he was sneaking his entire army into the north and then you wrongly claimed that Robb's plan did not involve attacking moat cailin when it clearly did. 

you have basically argued about the guaranteed success of a plan you didn't understand. 

1 minute ago, hodorisfaclessman said:

Balons entire strategy centres on bottling up the northern army south...he feels no army can get past moat calin marching north and no army can get north  any other way, robbs forces bypass it with the hidden swamp routes and take his army north

Robb's army does not bypass it, he is hoping some of it does and is not noticed due to the rest of his army ferociously attacking from the south. 

and lets be real, he has not spoken to Reed his entire life, the idea that his father at some point said to his son that should he ever be stupid enough to leave the north undefended and get locked out of the north remember there are secret paths back home, oh and there is always money in the banana stand. 

Robb is out of options, he desperately needs there to not only be hidden paths into the north but no ironborn scouts watching for movements - and in fairness it is easy to see why Robb would be hoping that as every single victory of his was down to poor or none existent scouting from the enemy 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

10 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

They have mostly been cut down by their own though, if their own norther vassals were more loyal the Starks would not be in so poor of a position. 

They don't need to. The fact that the vast majority of the kingdom was against them and they still remained loyal is pretty telling. 

Robb was literally stabbed in the back by his own vassal, while half of the 7,000 Northemen at the Red Wedding had no problem with him being killed and yet we are to believe that the northmen are the most loyal in the series? Robb at Winterfell has to threaten the Greatjon with execution to stop him returning home. The Dustins and Ryswells only send men with Robb out of fear of the Starks. 

there are far more examples of northern disloyalty to the Starks than any other Overlord in the series. the only reason people think the northmen must be more loyal is because it is the classical fantasy trope, the hero's followers do so out of love and respect and the villains followers out of fear and greed.

 

eh? the northern loyalty was tested long before the 'deaths' of bran and rickon. Winterfell was captured and most of the north sent no men, even the manderly's only sent a few hundred. a paltry 2k was sent to rescue Robb's heirs. 

 

Tywin's followers does follow him because of fear though, as they are well aware of the fates of Reynes and Tarbecks and even the Targaryens, so there's that. Barbrey has a special dislike for Starks because of Ned and we have no reason to believe rest of the Ryswells sent few men or not. Greatjon becomes the greatest Robb fan there is, after losing a finger or two. Most of the Northern houses does send men to retake Winterfell. Manderlys, Karstarks, Flints, Cerwyns and Tallharts all send men and even Hornwoods are present. Boltons also send men to help, or so Rodrik thinks. Of the houses who didn't send men, we know Glovers have lost their seat and Umbers didn't have any, as stated by Theon, Dustins have Barbrey with her grievance and again we don't know if Ryswells have men to send. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

14 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Tywin's followers does follow him because of fear though, as they are well aware of the fates of Reynes and Tarbecks and even the Targaryens, so there's that.

That seems to be the stretch-Tywin is a man of great accomplishment man and prestige and proven a competent ruler; many of his key followers may fear but it's shortsighted to say that's the only reason they follow him is out of that reason and forget any of his appealing qualities(such as his blood, and proven effectiveness).

 

14 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 Greatjon becomes the

The man was willing to let the warden of the north(Ned) die if he wasn't allowed to have the position in the battle of the greenfork he wanted; clearly his loyalty to the Starks isn't much overall given how quickly he'd say let em die as soon over something so trivial and actually threatening to murder the heir.  and I dare say he's likely only such an advent supporter of Robb because he wants to continue the war as long as he can to satisfy some thrill he has of it.

 

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Tywin's followers does follow him because of fear though,

You are generalizing a whole region based on nothing more than an assumption. and it pretty much comes down to the old fantasy trope that followers of the 'good guys' do so out of love and respect and followers of the bad only do so out of fear. GRRM's world is meant to mirror the war of the roses, neither the Yorks or Lancasters only had followers out of fear. 

The Lannisters, like all the Overlords, will have a varied reasons why they are supported, some it will be out of fear others out of respect and admiration, a good example of this is the reaction from Lord Lefford on Jaime's capture

"Then we must ransom Ser Jaime, whatever it costs," Lord Lefford said.

and some due to the recent marriage alliances. It should be noted that the current Lannisters have marriage alliance with many of the significant Houses of the West. 

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

as they are well aware of the fates of Reynes and Tarbecks

Well in actual fact that would have inspired both fear and respect. The Reynes and Tarbecks encouraged the law to break down in the West, the Tarbecks lands grew because they took lands from other westerland nobles. Tywin enforcing and keeping the peace will have been seen as a positive by many, some of those very lords will probably have benefited and swallowed up some of the lands previously ruled by those two houses. 

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Barbrey has a special dislike for Starks because of Ned and we have no reason to believe rest of the Ryswells sent few men or not.

According to Theon, and what we actually see, Lady Dustin seems to be the de facto leader of that faction, they likely followed her lead. We also see how both Houses did not send help to Winterfell even when Ned was dead, her dislike does not seem to have been just with Ned. 

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

 Greatjon becomes the greatest Robb fan there is, after losing a finger or two.

Well the most vocal. but as it is pointed out, the Umbers are low cunning. 

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

Most of the Northern houses does send men to retake Winterfell. Manderlys, Karstarks, Flints, Cerwyns and Tallharts all send men and even Hornwoods are present.

That is not most of the northern houses. 

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Boltons also send men to help, or so Rodrik thinks.

Are you really trying to include the Boltons in the loyal column? 

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Of the houses who didn't send men, we know Glovers have lost their seat and Umbers didn't have any,

Of course the Umbers did. they were spotted by Theon's scouts making their way and then for some reason did not come. They may not have many men left, but they do have some and GRRM has Theon puzzled by their absence while we quickly see that the Umbers were one of the first northern nobles to get onside with the Boltons. 

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

as stated by Theon, Dustins have Barbrey with her grievance and again we don't know if Ryswells have men to send. 

we do know that they have men as we see them working with Ramsay to drive the Ironborn out so his father can safely enter the North

 The Ryswells and the Dustins had surprised the ironmen on the Fever River and put their longships to the torch.

and we know there are three equal camps with Ramsay

Besides, where would he run to? Behind him were the camps, crowded with Dreadfort men and those the Ryswells had brought from the Rills, with the Barrowton host between them. South of Moat Cailin, another army was coming up the causeway, an army of Boltons and Freys marching beneath the banners of the Dreadfort.

 

[hodorisfaclessman]

4 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

eh? of course he does. Just like the Boltons had to. 

 I corrected you on your wrong assumption that he was sneaking his entire army into the north and then you wrongly claimed that Robb's plan did not involve attacking moat cailin when it clearly did. 

you have basically argued about the guaranteed success of a plan you didn't understand. 

Robb's army does not bypass it, he is hoping some of it does and is not noticed due to the rest of his army ferociously attacking from the south. 

and lets be real, he has not spoken to Reed his entire life, the idea that his father at some point said to his son that should he ever be stupid enough to leave the north undefended and get locked out of the north remember there are secret paths back home, oh and there is always money in the banana stand. 

Robb is out of options, he desperately needs there to not only be hidden paths into the north but no ironborn scouts watching for movements - and in fairness it is easy to see why Robb would be hoping that as every single victory of his was down to poor or none existent scouting from the enemy 

 

The boltons dont have to either they are just trying to solidify their rule by driv8ng out a hated enemy

 

Robb understands the reeds can lead his forces north through the vast swamplands ,he takes moat calin first  as its easier to take that with a smaller force and march the rest north the direct   route on a clear open road howver again its not essential just faster

 

Theyd have apoken of moat calin and its importance and hed have of course told him its not the only route as long as the swampmen have your back