Geddus Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 21 minutes ago, The Sleeper said: I'm not talking about the Baratheons or Tyrells. I am talking about the Arryns. We don't know how much he knew about the situation in the Vale, but according to what he says about in his strategy sessions in Game he seemed to consider it a real possibility that he would have to face the Vale as well. That is three kingdoms all with many veterans in their ranks. To be fair, I don't think Tywin's behavior makes much sense: as far as he knew the Vale should have joined the North in defense of the Riverlands, he couldn't possibily think he could win. I think it's an instance of GRRM "cheating" for the sake of plot, he did it a lot in the early stages of the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shouldve Taken The Black Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 29 minutes ago, The Sleeper said: There doesn't appear to be any plan to actually retrieve Tyrion. If I recall correctly, wasn't the whole point of setting the Mountain loose to trick Ned into coming West, and then capture him to trade him for Tyrion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bael's Bastard Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Geddus said: To be fair, I don't think Tywin's behavior makes much sense: as far as he knew the Vale should have joined the North in defense of the Riverlands, he couldn't possibily think he could win. I think it's an instance of GRRM "cheating" for the sake of plot, he did it a lot in the early stages of the story. Tywin isn't especially worried that the Starks and Arryns will join in before they have won the war. "Unless the Starks and the Arryns come forth to oppose us, this war is good as won." (AGOT: Tyrion VII) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sleeper Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 24 minutes ago, Geddus said: To be fair, I don't think Tywin's behavior makes much sense: as far as he knew the Vale should have joined the North in defense of the Riverlands, he couldn't possibily think he could win. I think it's an instance of GRRM "cheating" for the sake of plot, he did it a lot in the early stages of the story. I don't think so. Apart from the obvious explanation other than writer ineptness, is that Tywin considers the major threat to be Stannis. Who has the smallest army and least gold than all his other enemies. He is not the only one. The majority of commanders don' t seem to think in terms of strategy but rather of the individuals in charge. So, when he thought of the Riverlands, the North and the Vale he thought of the ailing Hoster, soft Edmure, green Robb and female Lysa. Not about 60k total in troops on their own ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sleeper Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: If I recall correctly, wasn't the whole point of setting the Mountain loose to trick Ned into coming West, and then capture him to trade him for Tyrion? That is what the survivors believe, but it doesn't make much sense as Tywin would have known that Ned wasn't coming in person because Pycelle would have told him. How would they have known to set the trap in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shouldve Taken The Black Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Just now, The Sleeper said: That is what the survivors believe, but it doesn't make much sense as Tywin would have known that Ned wasn't coming in person because Pycelle would have told him. Pycelle probably couldn't get a message to him in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ylath's Snout Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 44 minutes ago, The Sleeper said: There doesn't appear to be any plan to actually retrieve Tyrion. Umm, take hostage and castles so you have something to negotiate with for Tyrion's release, and some restitution I would assume. Directly rescuing Tyrion would involve invading the Vale and taking the The Eyrie. Solmething that has never been done without dragons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sleeper Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 11 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: Pycelle probably couldn't get a message to him in time. Of course he could. He was in charge of the ravens and was regularly reporting to Tywin. 10 minutes ago, Ylath's Snout said: Umm, take hostage and castles so you have something to negotiate with for Tyrion's release, and some restitution I would assume. Directly rescuing Tyrion would involve invading the Vale and taking the The Eyrie. Solmething that has never been done without dragons. He already had Edmure. Did he send any messages proposing an exchange? Maybe he did. If so they are not mentioned. Other than that there is nothing to say that he knew where Tyrion was or that he bothered to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geddus Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 23 minutes ago, The Sleeper said: I don't think so. Apart from the obvious explanation other than writer ineptness, is that Tywin considers the major threat to be Stannis. Who has the smallest army and least gold than all his other enemies. He is not the only one. The majority of commanders don' t seem to think in terms of strategy but rather of the individuals in charge. So, when he thought of the Riverlands, the North and the Vale he thought of the ailing Hoster, soft Edmure, green Robb and female Lysa. Not about 60k total in troops on their own ground. I was talking about Tywin invading the Riverlands, Stannis was not a factor at that time. As for the supposed plan to capture Ned, I don't think it makes much sense either for more than one reason. But that one is fan speculation, is it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shouldve Taken The Black Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, The Sleeper said: 22 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: Pycelle probably couldn't get a message to him in time. Of course he could. He was in charge of the ravens and was regularly reporting to Tywin. I meant in time. He didn't know about Ned's decision until Ned despatched Dondarrion on his mission. By then the trap was already likely in place. Gregor was already in the Riverlands, told to reave a bit then wait in ambush for Ned. Even if Pycelle sent a raven to Casterly Rock, Tywin would then have had to send a rider to the Mountain to tell him the plan was a dud. There would simply not have been enough time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sleeper Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 18 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: I meant in time. He didn't know about Ned's decision until Ned despatched Dondarrion on his mission. By then the trap was already likely in place. Gregor was already in the Riverlands, told to reave a bit then wait in ambush for Ned. Even if Pycelle sent a raven to Casterly Rock, Tywin would then have had to send a rider to the Mountain to tell him the plan was a dud. There would simply not have been enough time. Raiding generally means attacking and retreating. If he were in the Riverlands there would have been no need for the riverlords to send a delegation to ask for leave to enter the Westerlands. If he were on their own lands they would have been within their rights to hunt him down themselves. "Ser Raymun Darry spoke up. “Ser Edmure had summoned me to Riverrun with all my strength. I was camped across the river from his walls, awaiting his commands, when the word reached me. By the time I could return to my own lands, Clegane and his vermin were back across the Red Fork, riding for Lannister’s hills.” The Mountain was probably in his castle. Tywin probably warned him that they were coming for him so that he could ambush them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shouldve Taken The Black Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 1 minute ago, The Sleeper said: Raiding generally means attacking and retreating. If he were in the Riverlands there would have been no need for the riverlords to send a delegation to ask for leave to enter the Westerlands. If he were on their own lands they would have been within their rights to hunt him down themselves. "Ser Raymun Darry spoke up. “Ser Edmure had summoned me to Riverrun with all my strength. I was camped across the river from his walls, awaiting his commands, when the word reached me. By the time I could return to my own lands, Clegane and his vermin were back across the Red Fork, riding for Lannister’s hills.” The Mountain was probably in his castle. Tywin probably warned him that they were coming for him so that he could ambush them. No, the plan all along was to ambush them. I don't have a book to hand, but Harwin tells Arya that. It would be a big waste of time to raid the Riverlands, go back to his keep, then go back to the Riverlands to set the ambush. Better just to raid, then lie in wait. All this happens in a matter of days, not weeks. As to Darry's comment, that's supposition. He says they went back across the Red Fork and assumes they rode back to the Lannister lands, but he didn't track them all the way. We know now that instead, Gregor remained in the Riverlands lying in ambush for Ned. Think about the timeframe. Gregor rode across the entire Riverlands (the Dayy lands are in the eastern end), back to his own keep, then gets a message from Tywin and rides back out to set an ambush? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sleeper Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 24 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: No, the plan all along was to ambush them. I don't have a book to hand, but Harwin tells Arya that. It would be a big waste of time to raid the Riverlands, go back to his keep, then go back to the Riverlands to set the ambush. Better just to raid, then lie in wait. All this happens in a matter of days, not weeks. As to Darry's comment, that's supposition. He says they went back across the Red Fork and assumes they rode back to the Lannister lands, but he didn't track them all the way. We know now that instead, Gregor remained in the Riverlands lying in ambush for Ned. Think about the timeframe. Gregor rode across the entire Riverlands (the Dayy lands are in the eastern end), back to his own keep, then gets a message from Tywin and rides back out to set an ambush? The point of the raids was to get Edmure to split his forces and to goad him into attacking first thus providing Tywin the pretext to invade and appear that he was not the aggressor. The first part actually worked. What Harwin says to Arya is what Harwin believes. It directly contradicts the facts. As for the timeline Darry and the rest had to be notified of the raids, leave Riverrun go to their lands, gather survivors and go to King's Landing. It is weeks. The Mountain also had say at least fifty armored horse with him. You think they could have hung around the Riverlands unobserved? They are not the BwB who are locals, split apart when they are outside, travel through backroads and gather in caves. The ambush itself was at the red fork. The actual border between the Riverlands and the westerlands. 1 hour ago, Geddus said: I was talking about Tywin invading the Riverlands, Stannis was not a factor at that time. As for the supposed plan to capture Ned, I don't think it makes much sense either for more than one reason. But that one is fan speculation, is it not? It doesn't mean it is indicative of his thinking. It is character speculation first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernie Mac Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 1 hour ago, The Sleeper said: The point of the raids was to get Edmure to split his forces and to goad him into attacking first thus providing Tywin the pretext to invade and appear that he was not the aggressor. The first part actually worked. 1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: No, the plan all along was to ambush them. I don't have a book to hand, but Harwin tells Arya that. It would be a big waste of time to raid the Riverlands, go back to his keep, then go back to the Riverlands to set the ambush. Better just to raid, then lie in wait. All this happens in a matter of days, not weeks. You do realize that the two are not mutually exclusive goals, that both were possibilities, you are both right. Obviously Tyrion being returned would have meant the conflict resolved and him not returned the continued escalation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geddus Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 3 hours ago, The Sleeper said: It doesn't mean it is indicative of his thinking. It is character speculation first. Same difference, really. What did you mean by the bolded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sleeper Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 17 minutes ago, Geddus said: Same difference, really. What did you mean by the bolded? I meant to write that it shows his way of thinking. The way he dismisses Renly due to lack of martial reputation and considers Stannis a threat, would be the way he thought of his potential opponents at the start of the war of the five Kings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shouldve Taken The Black Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 16 hours ago, The Sleeper said: What Harwin says to Arya is what Harwin believes. It directly contradicts the facts. No it contradicts your assertions, not the facts. The facts are that: a) Gregor raided the Riverlands b) Ned sent a party west to execute Gregor. c) Gregor ambushed that party. The rest is speculation and assertion. We can happily debate the bits in between, but neither of us can claim that our opinions are "fact". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sleeper Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 38 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: No it contradicts your assertions, not the facts. The facts are that: a) Gregor raided the Riverlands b) Ned sent a party west to execute Gregor. c) Gregor ambushed that party. The rest is speculation and assertion. We can happily debate the bits in between, but neither of us can claim that our opinions are "fact". Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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