Craster, Mance, BR, Aemon, Rhaegar, and Harrenhal.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Maybe it was always Bloodraven's plan to go to the Wall at some point and travel beyond it to find out its secrets and magics. That offing a Blackfyre claimant was just a bonus for him if he always planned on going to the Wall to figure out what was going on in the deep North. 

20 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

can't look past the fact that Bloodraven came to the wall with a couple hundred men.

It seems like these men had a cult like dedication towards Bloodraven. So I'm sure they'd do just about anything he ordered them to do and would always be more loyal towards him than their new LC when they first arrived at the Wall. Add that Brynden had been a hand to multiple kings for many years and I wouldn't be surprised if there was some sort of power struggle between him and whoever was the LC when he arrived. I doubt Bloodraven fancied taking orders from someone he'd viewed as an inferior leader.

[Asshai Backward]

11 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

So I saddled my fleetest horse, and rode."

Sorry, chasing a squirrel here.  But, what good does it do to saddle your fleetest horse?  Speed won't help a whole lot north of the wall, and unless it was a flying horse...

The way this reads, though, is that Mance had a standing stable of horses south of the wall, and that he could easily cross over whenever he felt like it.  While I don't doubt that among Mance's immense skill set, ice climbing wasn't among them, I've always wondered if he was privy to Sam's door, and if he was able to use it even though he'd deserted.  Much quicker and reliable than scaling the wall, with all its attendant problems.  GRRM does an excellent job describing Jon's harrowing ascent, and it reads pretty true to real life climbing.  Having Mance just bop over, presumable rappel or go down a staircase on the other side, and then travel on foot until he could flag down or waylay the nearest horseman strains even fantastical credulity.

Therefore, I would suspect Mance had a well-developed cadre of sympathizers in place south of the wall.  What any of this means, I know not.  By association, however, since it was Coldhands that showed Sam the door, and Coldhands who took Bran to BR, if Mance was aware of the door, it stands to (at least shaky) reason that Mance, Coldhands, and BR are in some sort of cahoots.

[AlaskanSandman]

8 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

L.C would be a prime canidate given he’d be the to which would have the authority to allow Mance to stay at Catstle black. Honestly though at the very least it’s likely someone in the watch’s high command. Which in turn Mance would almost certainly be nobleman’s bastard. Perhaps that is why Mel sensed a kingly nature about the man. Given Mance is in his 30s one person who could possibly  shed light on the controversy surrounding his adoption is well Clydas, Aemon’s assistant given he’s remarked upon as looking around 60 it’s probable he joined as a young man thus should recall at least some rumors surrounding why Mance was allowed to stay at the time.

You know thinking that old theory of Val being the Night’s Queen(to which I’m sure someone deconstruct as patently false), perhaps Mance doesn’t move against Craster because he’s been turned? Leaving Craster unharmed genuinely seems to be strange given the man has attacked one of Mance’s followers and is known to give aid to the Watch.

 

7 hours ago, LindsayLohan said:

This is the best question in the thread.  My take is I don't put anything past Rivers' ambitions.  I don't think Aemon would have supported that pursuit, and although it's not revealed in print, I doubt Aemon would have been pleased with Rivers' killing of Aenys Blackfyre, on any level.  Still, when you look at Rivers' service as Hand in King's Landing, and murdering Aenys to secure Targaryan rule on the throne, I wonder if he'd see making the Watch LC a hereditary Targ/Blackfyre title as an extension of his duties to his Targaryan relatives.  The guy had weird motivations.

 

Quote

 

@Ralphis Baratheon   Maybe it was always Bloodraven's plan to go to the Wall at some point and travel beyond it to find out its secrets and magics. That offing a Blackfyre claimant was just a bonus for him if he always planned on going to the Wall to figure out what was going on in the deep North. 

  On 10/3/2018 at 6:47 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

can't look past the fact that Bloodraven came to the wall with a couple hundred men.

It seems like these men had a cult like dedication towards Bloodraven. So I'm sure they'd do just about anything he ordered them to do and would always be more loyal towards him than their new LC when they first arrived at the Wall. Add that Brynden had been a hand to multiple kings for many years and I wouldn't be surprised if there was some sort of power struggle between him and whoever was the LC when he arrived. I doubt Bloodraven fancied taking orders from someone he'd viewed as an inferior leader.

 

Carry over from another thread but relevant here to Mance and what B.R. may be up to.

Quote

 

First, pinning Bael to likely around the time of Hardhome, and his name being Valyrian. Hardhome likely being sacked like Lorath by Valyria. So Bael would come from this situation some how and possibly be tied to Brandon the Burner and his father.

And or Bael is slightly older, either way, the Wolf's Den was raised supposedly and possibly against Valyrians. 

My main point to show that Valyria had some sort of activity in the North represented by Ygritte and Tormund being kissed by fire. Possible reasons having to do with Valyrian slave trade and no opposing government in the North past the wall. 

So Mance (irregardless of any connection to Jon) and the Starks may have Valyrian in them by way of Bael.

Second. pinning Alysanne to Queenscrown having a child to a Mormont and or Stark (Alleric's son is mothered by a Mormont) via the Bear and the Maiden Fair. Evident through Maege Mormont and her daughter Alysane. 

Thirdly, any actions taken by Bloodraven or whom ever possibly fathered Mance despite their vows, then raised him at the Watch, despite their vows. I suspect the L.C. after Bloodraven to possibly be tied to him by blood, breaking yet another vow. 

So to me, the list of reason's why Mance is special is growing.

 

I think there is a couple people at the wall who may know something. Judging by when they came North. Like Allister and his crony would have possibly known Mance. Jeor likely knew something, and so did Qhorin and his two scouting mates. One is still missing if im not mistaken and could pop back up. 

I did think about Aemon after i wrote it and do wonder where he would sit on it. I can't help but feel Aemon was in on getting Jon elected. Given my notes above about Starks/Mormonts/and Valyrians.  Bloodraven _ Unknown_Qhorgyle_and Jeor_and Jon may be all related through one means or another. Making the line hereditary now.

Speculation mind you but hey. I feel like there is more going on in the north than i can put my finger on

[AlaskanSandman]

16 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

I don't think Mance can be BR's son, because he is simply too young. BR 'disappeared' in 252AC, we are told, at the age of 78.

Now look what John says about Mance:

And what Mance says about his trips to Winterfell (first with LC Qorgyle, then to see Robert):

So both Jon and Mance believe that Mance is 'young' in comparison to Eddard (because no kids at the age Jon first met Mance will ever think of their own parents as 'young'). Eddard was born in 263AC - 11 years after BR had fled the Wall - and if Mance was born even later, why would anyone think him a son of a Black Brother if his father was the octogenarian, missing-presumed-dead, Bloodraven? They wouldn't.

For this age difference to be remarked upon - that Mance was young compared to Eddard - would probably put the gap at 5 years or more. If that's so, then Mance would have been about 13 at the time of Harrenhal, so another reeason why he wouldn't be there, as well.

We're caught up past B.R. 

If any one, it was likely Qhorgyle. Though Qhorgyle's relation to the unnamed L.C. before him and after B.R. is unclear, or that unknown L.C. to B.R.

Who im questioning now whether he made the line hereditary. Bringing 200 plus die hard loyal men with him to the Watch who are more loyal to him than to the Watch would mean a take over of the Watch by Bloodraven, possibly assisted or not by Aemon. 

Just speculating.

(Took me a while to find supporting evidence for a missing L.C. Daenys Mallister has served as Commander of Shadow Tower for 30 years but it's still unclear when he actually joined, just that Qhorgyle joined before him. Now i have a supporting quote pinning the election of Qhorgyle down.

A Storm of Swords - Jon VIII

"Tell him what you will," said Maester Aemon, gently. "He will smile, nod, and forget. Thirty years ago Ser Wynton Stout came within a dozen votes of being Lord Commander. He would have made a fine one. Ten years ago he would still have been capable. No longer. You know that as well as Donal did, Jon."

Jeor became L.C. in 288 when Qhorgyle died. Qhorgyle then must have won in 270ac.

Bloodraven was lost beyond the Wall in 252Ac. So there would have been a new L.C. in 252Ac., who ruled for 18 years till 270.

 

Edit- I will add though that your dating for Mance is speculation and subject to err. Mance being 14 at Harrenhal would make him the same age as Lyanna and much more appropriate. Plus plenty old enough to father a child within the next two years.

[Dorian Martell's son]

On 10/3/2018 at 2:38 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

You don't do well with clues unless they're spelled out for you like a color by numbers book. It cracks me up  

Not a reply. That's cool though.  

On 10/3/2018 at 2:38 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

And no, that's not how all stories work lol maybe kids books. How are you supposed to create misdirection with that kind of logic?

It is how this story works. That is the important part. There is plenty of misdirection in the series, but aside from Jon's parentage and the nature of his parent's relationship and the specifics leading up to it, the rest of it is resolved in the same book of the very next book re: Aristan is really Ser Barristan, Ser Davos' death at the hands of Lord Wyman. Remember, you aren't talking about misdirection, you are writing a parallel story with someone else's characters.  Fan Fic. 

On 10/3/2018 at 2:38 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

Pretty sure raven's have eyes and quite good one and plenty capable of reading it while it's being written. With out all that silliness 

So now there is a raven in Rhaegar's quarters? Or maybe an invisible Raven that follows Aemon waiting for him to read something when he dares read a correspondence with his nephew away from the rookery? C'mon, you have to add more details to your fan fic. George has tons of details that work when scrutinized. 

On 10/3/2018 at 2:38 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

So because the Tourney never came up in conversation between Jon and Mance (And no reason it would), he obviously wasn't there. 

  The reason would be to let the readers know (i met your father's sister, the prince gave her a crown of roses or something similar) he was there, and it would be relevant to the real plot, not just in your rewrite. 

On 10/3/2018 at 2:38 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

 Even though there was a black brother there. And you say it wasn't Yoren.

Again, your reading comprehension is the issue. I never said it was Yoren. It could have been, but since we are not told who it is, we cannot name him, and since Yoren is not the only recruiter we meet (Dareon) naming him is not possible. None of that matters though. If Mance was at an event that was so important to the story, He would have mentioned it. like how he mentions his trips to winterfell, officially, and for leisure.

On 10/3/2018 at 2:38 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

Even though you know, there is a clue that one was there. You know, that work done by authors to lay the grounds for a misdirection. But i guess Meera mentioning the Black brother was as unimportant as letting us know Robert was ignoring Lyanna and caught up drinking and getting drunk. Or that Ashara danced with specific people. Or anything else mentioned by Meera other than the Knight cause it was obviously Lyanna. The rest was just filler

Again, if you pay attention to the story (a series reread is required before you write more fan fic)  

“Under Harren’s roof he ate and drank with the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, barrowdown men and moose and bears and mermen. The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night’s Watch. The storm lord drank down the knight of skulls and kisses in a wine-cup war. The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf . . . but only after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench.”

Now, A black brother is mentioned right after the pup brother. Now, the pup is Benjen, and guess what? after Bob's rebellion, he joins the watch! OMG what an amazing coincidence! It is almost like the author is setting up a character with a flashback! Seriously, I know it is hard to believe, but it is true. 

On 10/3/2018 at 2:38 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

Robert, Cersei and Yandel were there when Lyanna was kidnapped? They were there when she died? They can vouch as eye witnesses? This is new to me, thankfully your here to set that straight hahah

Repeating myself in every reply is getting old but hey, we are still years from the next book so why not?  Those people all had different ways of viewing the Rhaegar/Lyanna debacle. Bob thinks it is rape and kidnapping. Cersei felt that Elia was not woman enough and if the prince had been married to her, he never would have ran off with Lyanna. Yandel just assumes we all know it and does not say much. The one thing they all have in common is that they all agree that Rhaegar and Lyanna went somewhere together and the war started after. None of them had to be an eye witness to convey different views on a know subject.
What you are presenting is in any way similar. Since nobody saw Mance at the tourney, and there is no record of his travels, we can safely assume at this point that he was not there. All you have is a song he played that Jon heard. The rest is your own story written by you. 
Anyway, I'm glad you're happy I could set this straight. 

On 10/3/2018 at 2:38 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

"Tell them the tree's have eye's again"........... Yea, that sounds like Yoren is real concerned with Mance Rayder. Cause you know, Mance see's through the tree's and uses the magic of the Cotf. You sure you not on some fan fiction? 

This is why I can tell you have maybe read the books once and all your theories are based on things said here. Remember, Qhorin was sent to gather intel on Mance. So yes he was "concerned."  Also, let me give you the whole quote so you get it:
 

“There was no question of riding double. Stonesnake offered to lay in wait for the pursuit and surprise them when they came. Perhaps he could take a few of them with him down to hell. Qhorin refused. “If any man in the Night’s Watch can make it through the Frostfangs alone and afoot, it is you, brother. You can go over mountains that a horse must go around. Make for the Fist. Tell Mormont what Jon saw, and how. Tell him that the old powers are waking, that he faces giants and wargs and worse. Tell him that the trees have eyes again.”

If you had read the book, you would know that Jon saw the whole wildling host, it was huge and Jon saw it in a wolf dream. Qhorin knows  a lot about the old gods it would seem, and his message was twofold. 1: The wildling host was bigger  than they thought AND on the move.
2: Something else magical and sinister was happening as well, something that the Lord commander needed to know. 

On 10/3/2018 at 2:38 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

And Mance was hoping Ygritte was enough to make Jon turn according to him. Ygritte who Qhorin helped get Jon to steal. After purposefully sabotaging their mission by even bringing Jon and his Wolf (who gets them spotted). To which even Jeor is shocked he wants to bring Jon. To which Mance, Qhorin and Craster all are interested in Jon by his looks, the look of Lyanna Stark. The look of the Starks. The most die hard people in the North. So yea, bastard or not, there is noooooo reason to think Jon would turn. At all. He's not Mance, he's not a wildling. He's of noble birth, who's own father beheaded deserters. Jon isn't running north, and Mance is stupid if he believes that. Jon being left at the wall cause he was a bastard is stupid too. Why wasn't Brandon Snow at the Wall then? I imagine Torhen would have just as much problem placing him and finding him a bride. I imagine his lady mother may not have been fond of Brandon. So where's your iron clad examples in the books of once something is written is fact and only what Dorian interprets?  Your cut and dry excuse for why Jon is at the Wall, and being handed over to Mance, and Mance's cut and dry past, just aren't adding up for me or other people. Whether any one has a defined theory is irrelevant. No one has a defined theory for LF's master plan either. Or whether Aegon is real. Or many more. Jon has been tested once before this and stayed loyal, over his own family. He aint breaking it for a woman or Mance. Not Mance as you claim Mance is at least. If Jon wanted a woman he could bounce to the free cities and join the second son's or some sell sword company.  Why would Mance or Qhorin think Jon would opt for life beyond the wall over life in the east? Daemon did it, im sure Jon could manage. 

 I can't even respond to this rambling diatribe. Who said jon was ever going east? And what does brandon snow have to do with any of this? 
It seems you just cannot believe what is written by GRRM. You don't find it plausible? Why keep visiting this forum and rewriting the story if you don't like the story? 

On 10/3/2018 at 2:38 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

And the weirwood is being used as a sigil by TKOTLT. Or should i explain how sigils work? And yes, give me one example of the Northerners using the weirwood for a symbol or sigil otherrrrrr than wildlings, like Val and he weirwood brooch. Arya has plenty of times she could have drawn one or something. As a reminder of home. No Northerner uses the weirwoods as an image as the Faith uses the seven pointed star. Blackwoods are the only example i know of. But they're tied to Bloodraven so forget that lol I just think its funny that just cause the Knight has a weirwood on him, it hasssss to be Reed or Stark. Who associate with lizards and wolves. I mean, i see your logic. I just think its weak as the only evidence. Cause House Reed and Stark make up the North. The Knight's not Reed, cause how would meeting Howland lead Rhaegar to fall for Lyanna? Pimping her out? Lyanna is your best chance, but Meera and Jojen repeatedly refer to him as a "GUY". And since it's "spelled out" in the books as you say. I believe he was a male, and not Howland, or Benjen ( who would also have to act as a pimp for Lyanna).

 So, two northern houses, families that literally worship weirwoods, are the center of a story involving a mystery "knight" (remember, you have to swear your vows to the seven to be one) with a weirwood as his sigil on his shield, that knight couldn't possibly be connected to one of the two weirwood worshiping houses at the center of the story? It had to be a watchman, born beyond the wall, who has never been south of the neck AND he was controlled by bloodraven? Besides, the wildlings don't have sigils. 

[Dorian Martell's son]

On 10/3/2018 at 2:58 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

If your knowledge of the books is only this forum, every one would have a humdrum boring opinion of the books as you do. Not all of do, and some of us think GRRM is a better writer than apparently you do. And capable of telling a much more layered intelligent story than your color by numbers book. You and the "truthers" always going around trying to smash anything thats outside of your exceptable Rhaegar and Lyanna are the answer for everything. How's the book end? Idk, Rhaegar and Lyanna man. Its all spelled out duh. Should we question anything else? Na, faith brotha. Rhaegar and Lyanna shall not lead us wrong. What about all these other characters? Meh, meaningless flesh sacks merely a vehicle for forwarding the plot of our good brother and sister Rhaegar and Lyanna. Jon is TPTWP and he shall wake dragons from stone and fight with Dawn and marry his aunt Dany. So awesome. Ygritte and her incest hating soulless ginger self knows nothing. She's missing out. Mance served his purpose, Jon's little turn to the dark side to get him to feel for the wildlings and let them pass. So Mance is dead now and of no plot significance. Melisandre didn't keep him alive for more. Oh wait, yes she did. Hmm, well, he simply is just a plot device to free fake Arya. He's for sure a dead man now. Oh wait, that was Theon that freed her..... well idk, im sure that useless meat sack is still just a plot device to get Jon to side with the Wildlings or something. I mean, that nameless adaptation killed him, so he's definitely as irrelevant as those older Tyrell brothers. Useless meat sacks every where. Lol Better not see any fan fiction on those Tyrell's either. Meat sacks

I, well, um, yes, that is, um, well, interesting. Maybe you can summarize it for those of us who are less familiar with the "layered" concept you are presenting here?

[AlaskanSandman]

10 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Since nobody saw Mance at the tourney, and there is no record of his travels, we can safely assume at this point that he was not there.

I just can't with this kind of logic haha Well, in that case, since no one saw him at Winterfell, i guess he wasn't there. I mean, he say's he was, but can we be sure? No one saw him lol

[AlaskanSandman]

20 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

I, well, um, yes, that is, um, well, interesting. Maybe you can summarize it for those of us who are less familiar with the "layered" concept you are presenting here?

Just playing, i thought you liked snarky haha Seriously though, many people have interesting speculations but you dont sound like your open to anything 

 

22 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

The reason would be to let the readers know (i met your father's sister, the prince gave her a crown of roses or something similar) he was there, and it would be relevant to the real plot, not just in your rewrite. 

See, we just see things different. To me, everything important to Jon is either in Jon's Chapter, or Bran's Chapters. Queen's Crown being one point they both share. That's important to both there stories. The Knight of the Laughing is told in Bran's ch and important to Bran. It's also important to Jon imo. So between the two, we get the fully story of Mance. Bael the Bard being the set up. Queen's Crown possibly being tied to it. The Tourney of Harrenhal being when everything went down. 

Benjen btw would in no way be seeking the Wall while at Harrenhal. Sorry. Maybe a wife, but the Wall? He's not a bastard like Jon, he's got options lol 

[Varysblackfyre321]

On 10/4/2018 at 10:14 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

Edit- I will add though that your dating for Mance is speculation and subject to err. Mance being 14 at Harrenhal would make him the same age as Lyanna and much more appropriate. Plus plenty old enough to father a child within the next two years.

I mean Mance could be a couple years older maybe 16, 15. If so he’d likely at this point wouldn’t be considered the best ranger. Still not sold on the idea Mance kidnapped anybody but I concede he could have been there. 

 

On 10/4/2018 at 10:14 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

Who im questioning now whether he made the line hereditary. Bringing 200 plus die hard loyal men with him to the Watch who are more loyal to him than to the Watch would mean a take over of the Watch by Bloodraven, possibly assisted or not by Aemon. 

But would the benefit to having the positio

 

11 minutes ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Benjen btw would in no way be seeking the Wall while at Harrenhal. Sorry. Maybe a wife, but the Wall? He's not a bastard like Jon, he's got options lol 

The wall isn’t the best place to end it up for well most people but for some the third sons of major northern houses it could be enough; it allows them to carve out a name for themselves and they’re basically moved to the tippy top of the community. And given he did join it relatively soon after one can infer he was thinking on such for quite some time. Who can blame him really? 

[AlaskanSandman]

39 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

So now there is a raven in Rhaegar's quarters? Or maybe an invisible Raven that follows Aemon waiting for him to read something when he dares read a correspondence with his nephew away from the rookery? C'mon, you have to add more details to your fan fic. George has tons of details that work when scrutinized. 

Well if Aemon served with Brynden and worked with him, he wouldn't be exactly hiding his correspondence with Rhaegar now would he? You make it sound like Br has to sneak around to get to read it, or that Aemon wouldn't just have it read out loud to him since he's you, BLIND LMFAO

He's gotta say what's being written by some one for him, then they read messages aloud to him. So even if BR was sneaking with out Aemon's awareness or aid, it wouldn't be hard hahah

39 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

It is how this story works. That is the important part. There is plenty of misdirection in the series, but aside from Jon's parentage and the nature of his parent's relationship and the specifics leading up to it, the rest of it is resolved in the same book of the very next book re: Aristan is really Ser Barristan, Ser Davos' death at the hands of Lord Wyman. Remember, you aren't talking about misdirection, you are writing a parallel story with someone else's characters.  Fan Fic. 

Except he's told us there was a Black brother there, so the set up is there. Whether you agree with it or not. Whether it's right or not, the set up is still possible. Plus Bael is about a wildling stealing a Stark, not a Valyrian stealing a Stark. So again, the set up is def there imo.

39 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Again, your reading comprehension is the issue. I never said it was Yoren. It could have been, but since we are not told who it is, we cannot name him, and since Yoren is not the only recruiter we meet (Dareon) naming him is not possible. None of that matters though. If Mance was at an event that was so important to the story, He would have mentioned it. like how he mentions his trips to winterfell, officially, and for leisure.

Lmfao, how does my comprehension suck when you keep repeating it? You clearly saying it wasn't him either, or he'd have mentioned it too. 

39 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Repeating myself in every reply is getting old but hey, we are still years from the next book so why not?  Those people all had different ways of viewing the Rhaegar/Lyanna debacle. Bob thinks it is rape and kidnapping. Cersei felt that Elia was not woman enough and if the prince had been married to her, he never would have ran off with Lyanna. Yandel just assumes we all know it and does not say much. The one thing they all have in common is that they all agree that Rhaegar and Lyanna went somewhere together and the war started after. None of them had to be an eye witness to convey different views on a know subject.

Um, yes, the source of their report is kind of important lol

 

39 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

This is why I can tell you have maybe read the books once and all your theories are based on things said here. Remember, Qhorin was sent to gather intel on Mance. So yes he was "concerned."  Also, let me give you the whole quote so you get it:
 

“There was no question of riding double. Stonesnake offered to lay in wait for the pursuit and surprise them when they came. Perhaps he could take a few of them with him down to hell. Qhorin refused. “If any man in the Night’s Watch can make it through the Frostfangs alone and afoot, it is you, brother. You can go over mountains that a horse must go around. Make for the Fist. Tell Mormont what Jon saw, and how. Tell him that the old powers are waking, that he faces giants and wargs and worse. Tell him that the trees have eyes again.”

If you had read the book, you would know that Jon saw the whole wildling host, it was huge and Jon saw it in a wolf dream. Qhorin knows  a lot about the old gods it would seem, and his message was twofold. 1: The wildling host was bigger  than they thought AND on the move.
2: Something else magical and sinister was happening as well, something that the Lord commander needed to know. 

No, Mormont was concerned, hence why "he" commanded Qhorin to go find information. Information Qhorin may have already known. 

[AlaskanSandman]

5 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I mean Mance could be a couple years older maybe 16, 15. If so he’d likely at this point wouldn’t be considered the best ranger. Still not sold on the idea Mance kidnapped anybody but I concede he could have been there. 

 

But would the benefit to having the positio

 

The wall isn’t the best place to end it up for well most people but for some the third sons of major northern houses it could be enough; it allows them to carve out a name for themselves and they’re basically moved to the tippy top of the community. And given he did join it relatively soon after one can infer he was thinking on such for quite some time. Who can blame him really? 

Mance is being considered the best, now. Not back then. We dont know when Mance became so good. He does have 5 more years of possible service at least after Robert's Rebellion. Plenty of time to rise to rank of ranger and distinguish your self.

[Dorian Martell's son]

On 10/3/2018 at 3:29 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

So do you disagree with evidence in the North for Valyrian activity like the Wolf's Den being raised against Valyrian's, 

I have not seen the "Evidence" but Valyrian raids on the north would be known. The north remembers. And there seems to be no memory of the freehold raiding  the north. We are told wolf's den was raised to defend against raiders from the sea. Now, raiders can be anyone, and as a slave based economy, it would be safe to assume that some of those raiders were from the freehold. So, yes. your statement would be technically true.

On 10/3/2018 at 3:29 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

 or Bael having a Valyrian name

I am not familiar with any evidence for this either. Is Bael a common name in the freehold?

On 10/3/2018 at 3:29 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

and Hardhome being burned down. 

Of course it was burned. The mystery is what started the fire 

On 10/3/2018 at 3:29 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

Reread that book. Reread Qhorin and Ygritte. Bael over took the Stark Bloodline on the male side. Meaning Jon may be Valyrian through Bael. Same as Ygritte who is kissed by fire. 

 I am familiar with the story. Bael being the father of the stark line is only told north of the wall so it is probably an embellishment. Otherwise it would be more common south of the wall, as even the starks have enemies.  Now, even if the Bael story and everything you said was als true, Bael was so far back in history that Jon would be in no way Valyrian. If you want to see what a few thousand years can do to people, google the Lemba. Besides, Jon is actually Valyrian through his biological father, the Prince of Dragonstone,  so any possible connection to the freehold  is meaningless. 

On 10/3/2018 at 3:29 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

Does this not give Mance the Fire aspect and Lyanna the Ice aspect? Does this not still make Jon the son of Ice and Fire? All clues laid out in Jon's chapters, having nothing to do with Rhaegar. 

Nope, not at all. Jon's bio parents, Stark and targ are the song of ice and fire. Mance as a targ is a reach. In fact it is such a reach that you are literally the first reader of millions to "discover" it. 

On 10/3/2018 at 3:29 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

Queen's Crown? Alysanne and the North? Do none of these clues seem odd and adding up to something?

Have you read the fire and blood excerpt on GRRM's page? 

[Dorian Martell's son]

10 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

I just can't with this kind of logic haha Well, in that case, since no one saw him at Winterfell, i guess he wasn't there. I mean, he say's he was, but can we be sure? No one saw him lol

First of all, people did see him at winterfell. the first time he visited, but they are dead and missing. 
Second, these are not real people. This is a story, and characters are devices to convey the story. Mance informing Jon of his trips to the seat of the north are there to show he has means and the will to venture into the seat of his enemy. Have you considered watching TV instead of reading? 

[Dorian Martell's son]

11 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Just playing, i thought you liked snarky haha Seriously though, many people have interesting speculations but you dont sound like your open to anything 

Snark is dry, but also coherent. I am open to everything, until I read it, and if it makes no sense then I will say so in this public forum. 99% of speculations here are baseless tinfoil. 

11 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

See, we just see things different. To me, everything important to Jon is either in Jon's Chapter, or Bran's Chapters. Queen's Crown being one point they both share. That's important to both there stories. The Knight of the Laughing is told in Bran's ch and important to Bran. It's also important to Jon imo. So between the two, we get the fully story of Mance. Bael the Bard being the set up. Queen's Crown possibly being tied to it. The Tourney of Harrenhal being when everything went down. 

Then you are severely limiting yourself. Important things to say, Sansa, like when she wishes a hero would kill slynt actually happen books later in Jon's chapter, when he beheads Janos. You claim GRRM is this amazing writer with so many layers to his writing, but then you seem to want to ignore the layers he writes. Why? What is so unsatisfying about what he writes? 

11 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

 Benjen btw would in no way be seeking the Wall while at Harrenhal. Sorry. Maybe a wife, but the Wall? He's not a bastard like Jon, he's got options lol 

How can you say this when he literally went to the wall, joined the watch and worked his way up to become the first ranger of castle black? Seriously. Do you believe the earth is flat, the moon landing is fake AND we are visited by aliens?  

[Dorian Martell's son]

11 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Well if Aemon served with Brynden and worked with him, he wouldn't be exactly hiding his correspondence with Rhaegar now would he? You make it sound like Br has to sneak around to get to read it, or that Aemon wouldn't just have it read out loud to him since he's you, BLIND LMFAO

Wait, you went from Ravens reading the letter to Brynden reading them to Aemon?  which one is it? Of do you not even know and are just throwing out any idea as you reply to me? 

11 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Except he's told us there was a Black brother there, so the set up is there. Whether you agree with it or not. Whether it's right or not, the set up is still possible. Plus Bael is about a wildling stealing a Stark, not a Valyrian stealing a Stark. So again, the set up is def there imo.

 OK, you just said that Bael was a Valyrian and had a Valyrian name. Now he is a wildling again? Holy crap dude, which one is it? This is not a blue and gold dress thing. This it you not being able to keep you fan fic straight. 

11 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Lmfao, how does my comprehension suck when you keep repeating it? You clearly saying it wasn't him either, or he'd have mentioned it too. 

An absence of an name does not confirm one. 

11 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Um, yes, the source of their report is kind of important lol

 This is hilarious, since you are basing an entire theory on a son played in a tent. So, Are sources important or not. If they are, this entire theory of yours is crap. If not, why can't you take the story for what it is? 

11 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

No, Mormont was concerned, hence why "he" commanded Qhorin to go find information. Information Qhorin may have already known. 

Are you familiar with a martial concept of "The chain of command?" If not look it up.
Then, why the hell did the halfhand go to find mance if he already "knew' what he was doing
You make no sense. 

[AlaskanSandman]

13 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

I have not seen the "Evidence" but Valyrian raids on the north would be known. The north remembers. And there seems to be no memory of the freehold raiding  the north. We are told wolf's den was raised to defend against raiders from the sea. Now, raiders can be anyone, and as a slave based economy, it would be safe to assume that some of those raiders were from the freehold. So, yes. your statement would be technically true.

I am not familiar with any evidence for this either. Is Bael a common name in the freehold?

Of course it was burned. The mystery is what started the fire 

 I am familiar with the story. Bael being the father of the stark line is only told north of the wall so it is probably an embellishment. Otherwise it would be more common south of the wall, as even the starks have enemies.  Now, even if the Bael story and everything you said was als true, Bael was so far back in history that Jon would be in no way Valyrian. If you want to see what a few thousand years can do to people, google the Lemba. Besides, Jon is actually Valyrian through his biological father, the Prince of Dragonstone,  so any possible connection to the freehold  is meaningless. 

Nope, not at all. Jon's bio parents, Stark and targ are the song of ice and fire. Mance as a targ is a reach. In fact it is such a reach that you are literally the first reader of millions to "discover" it. 

Have you read the fire and blood excerpt on GRRM's page? 

 

Quote

The World of Ice and Fire - The North: The Kings of Winter

Even before the coming of the Andals, the Wolf's Den had been raised by King Jon Stark, built to defend the mouth of the White Knife against raiders and slavers from across the narrow sea (some scholars suggest these were early Andal incursions, whilst others argue they were the forebears of the men of Ib, or even slavers out of Valyria and Volantis).

 

 

Where better to come for slaves than beyond the wall?

 

Quote

If you want to figure out a family's descent, the names are a better clue than the eyes. Houses descended from the First Men tend to have simple short names, often descriptive. Stark. Reed. Flint. Tallhart (tall hart). Etc. The Valyrian names are fairly distinct are well: The "ae" usage usually suggests a Valyrian in the family tree. The Andal names are . . . well, neith Stark nor Targaryen, if that makes sense. Lannister. Arryn. Tyrell. Etc. Of course, you also need to remember that there have been hundreds and in some cases thousands of years of interbreeding, so hardly anyone is pure Andal or First Man.

https://archive.is/St3S6#selection-3713.1-3717.252

From the proverbial Horse him self.

And no mystery really, should be pretty obvious, but to add timing and evidence.

 

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Jon III

"Wildlings have invaded the realm before." Jon had heard the tales from Old Nan and Maester Luwin both, back at Winterfell. "Raymun Redbeard led them south in the time of my grandfather's grandfather, and before him there was a king named Bael the Bard."

"Aye, and long before them came the Horned Lord and the brother kings Gendel and Gorne, and in ancient days Joramun, who blew the Horn of Winter and woke giants from the earth. Each man of them broke his strength on the Wall, or was broken by the power of Winterfell on the far side

From Jon, talking to Qhorin before meeting Ygritte and hearing her version of the tale.

 

Quote

A Storm of Swords - Jon III

"Aye," said Ygritte. "Together with his brother Gendel, three thousand years ago. They led a host o' free folk through the caves, and the Watch was none the wiser. But when they come out, the wolves o' Winterfell fell upon them."

 

From Ygritte, which lines up wth 

Quote

The World of Ice and Fire - The Wall and Beyond: The Wildlings

The brothers Gendel and Gorne were joint kings three thousand years ago. Leading their host down beneath the earth into a labyrinth of twisting subterranean caverns, they passed beneath the Wall unseen to attack the North. Gorne slew the Stark king in battle, then was killed in turn by the king's heir, and Gendel and his remaining wildlings fled back to their caverns, never to been seen again.

The Horned Lord would follow them, a thousand years after (or perhaps two). His name is lost to history, but he was said to have used sorcery to pass the Wall. After him, centuries later, came Bael the Bard, 

What Yandel says. So that's three sources, not connected, all in agreement.

 

So it should look like this

Quote

Mance Rayder                   - 300Ac

 

Raymund Red Beard         - 226 Ac

 

Bael the Bard                     - Some time after Andals but before Targaryens? 13-1400BC or 500-400Bc?

 

And Long before them.

 

The Horned Lord               - 1700Bc or 700 Bc (only centuries before Bael)

 

Gendle and Gorne           - 2700Bc

 

And In Ancient Days.

 

Joramun                            - Unknown.

Meaning Bael, who is possibly Valyrian, was around the time Valyria took Dragonstone and Hardhome was burned. MY guess, is Valyria did it.

 

And possibly, depending how much Valyrian blood was in the North to begin with. House Mormont may be tied to it too. In the same breath though, Rhaegar and Daenerys are hardly Valyrian according to GRRM so, meh. 

 

And yes, i have read the excerpt, i was quite pleased that it's lining up with my theories so far. 

 

Have you "read" the books good ser?

 

Edit - "You know nothing", "The North Remembers"

 

Edit Edit- Notice Alleric didn't get ate or burned when approaching Silverwing. Blood of the Dragon.

[AlaskanSandman]

12 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

First of all, people did see him at winterfell. the first time he visited, but they are dead and missing. 
Second, these are not real people. This is a story, and characters are devices to convey the story. Mance informing Jon of his trips to the seat of the north are there to show he has means and the will to venture into the seat of his enemy. Have you considered watching TV instead of reading? 

No body saw him who knew him or recognized him. Even Lord Eddard after having met him before. 

Have you considered watching tv instead? hahah

[AlaskanSandman]

12 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Snark is dry, but also coherent. I am open to everything, until I read it, and if it makes no sense then I will say so in this public forum. 99% of speculations here are baseless tinfoil. 

Then you are severely limiting yourself. Important things to say, Sansa, like when she wishes a hero would kill slynt actually happen books later in Jon's chapter, when he beheads Janos. You claim GRRM is this amazing writer with so many layers to his writing, but then you seem to want to ignore the layers he writes. Why? What is so unsatisfying about what he writes? 

How can you say this when he literally went to the wall, joined the watch and worked his way up to become the first ranger of castle black? Seriously. Do you believe the earth is flat, the moon landing is fake AND we are visited by aliens?  

I thought it was good

And yes, i know Martin does little narrative beats like what you mention. Is there any information important to Jon in Sansa's chapters though? Is there anything important to Sansa in Jon's? The people character arks are mostly serviced with in their own chapters or characters close by. 

And yes, he went to the Wall after the war, after some unknown circumstance. Why not before? Why not right after Harrenhal? He had a month. How much time does he need? What makes you think his father would let him? He's young, horny, at Harrenhal with a bunch of young beautiful women and the son or a Lord. I dont see why he would be thinking about the Watch then.

[AlaskanSandman]

12 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Wait, you went from Ravens reading the letter to Brynden reading them to Aemon?  which one is it? Of do you not even know and are just throwing out any idea as you reply to me? 

 OK, you just said that Bael was a Valyrian and had a Valyrian name. Now he is a wildling again? Holy crap dude, which one is it? This is not a blue and gold dress thing. This it you not being able to keep you fan fic straight. 

An absence of an name does not confirm one. 

 This is hilarious, since you are basing an entire theory on a son played in a tent. So, Are sources important or not. If they are, this entire theory of yours is crap. If not, why can't you take the story for what it is? 

Are you familiar with a martial concept of "The chain of command?" If not look it up.
Then, why the hell did the halfhand go to find mance if he already "knew' what he was doing
You make no sense. 

No, i simply started with a question towards the (one of many) idea of the three of them in correspondence. You started nit picking the details of how and i threw out the ravens. YOU started quibbling over the ravens reading them and the logic and i simply said that they dont have to read them, Aemon is blind and would have everything read out loud any ways. 

And so, you can't be Westerosi and Valyrian? Or Westerosi and Andal? Wildlings can't be made up of other groups? Even though some are blonde, some brown hair, some red hair. The Wildlings can't have Andals among them either? Mance can have Valyrian blood and still be a Wildling. Thats just silly to argue against. 

And what son playing in a tent are you talking about????

And are you serious? Because, even though he knew what Mance was up to for the most part, he needed to get Jon to Mance. Hence why he would take the mission, aside from the obvious, because he was told to by a superior commander and unless he wants to give up the gig, he has to play along. 

The information he wants relayed back to Mormont has to do with Jon seeing Mance's armies via his wolf, ousting Jon to Mormont as a warg. Or confirming. Also that the Old powers are waking again and that the Tree's have eyes again...

What does anyyyyy of this have to do with Mance????

[Rufus Snow]

On 10/5/2018 at 1:19 AM, Asshai Backward said:

Sorry, chasing a squirrel here.  But, what good does it do to saddle your fleetest horse?  Speed won't help a whole lot north of the wall, and unless it was a flying horse...

Any particular reason why speed is less use north of the Wall ? You should let the NW know, they could save loads of treasure and effort if only they knew not to send men out mounted for ranging.....

On 10/5/2018 at 1:19 AM, Asshai Backward said:

The way this reads, though, is that Mance had a standing stable of horses south of the wall, and that he could easily cross over whenever he felt like it.  While I don't doubt that among Mance's immense skill set, ice climbing wasn't among them, I've always wondered if he was privy to Sam's door, and if he was able to use it even though he'd deserted.  Much quicker and reliable than scaling the wall, with all its attendant problems.  GRRM does an excellent job describing Jon's harrowing ascent, and it reads pretty true to real life climbing.  Having Mance just bop over, presumable rappel or go down a staircase on the other side, and then travel on foot until he could flag down or waylay the nearest horseman strains even fantastical credulity.

No, it doesn't read as though Mance had a stable south of the Wall, because he says he took a purse of silver to BUY a horse south of the Wall. And unlikely as it sounds, we're told repeatedely that wildlings climb the Wall very often, even taking captured maids back North with them. We're told that's what happens by the characters that do it; we're told that's what happens by the characters trying to stop them doing it; and we're told that's what happens by the characters who suffer as a result of them doing it. If you can't believe it, your problem. Argument from incredulity is a logical fallacy.

Quote

A Storm of Swords - Jon I

".... So I saddled my fleetest horse, and rode."

"But," Jon objected, "the Wall . . ."

"The Wall can stop an army, but not a man alone. I took a lute and a bag of silver, scaled the ice near Long Barrow, walked a few leagues south of the New Gift, and bought a horse. All in all I made much better time than Robert, who was traveling with a ponderous great wheelhouse to keep his queen in comfort........"

On 10/5/2018 at 1:19 AM, Asshai Backward said:

Therefore, I would suspect Mance had a well-developed cadre of sympathizers in place south of the wall.  What any of this means, I know not.  By association, however, since it was Coldhands that showed Sam the door, and Coldhands who took Bran to BR, if Mance was aware of the door, it stands to (at least shaky) reason that Mance, Coldhands, and BR are in some sort of cahoots.

Non sequitur.

 

Quote

A Storm of Swords - Jon I

Jon's eyes widened in disbelief. "That can't be so."

"It was. When your father learned the king was coming, he sent word to his brother Benjen on the Wall, so he might come down for the feast. There is more commerce between the black brothers and the free folk than you know, and soon enough word came to my ears as well. It was too choice a chance to resist. Your uncle did not know me by sight, so I had no fear from that quarter, and I did not think your father was like to remember a young crow he'd met briefly years before. I wanted to see this Robert with my own eyes, king to king, and get the measure of your uncle Benjen as well. He was First Ranger by then, and the bane of all my people. So I saddled my fleetest horse, and rode."

@AlaskanSandman Given the above, when Mance was in a sharing mood a) why would he not mention having met Eddard TWICE before (Winterfell and Harrenhal) and b) why would he believe that Benjen, who also saw the Black Brother at Harrenhal, wouldn't know him by sight?