Craster, Mance, BR, Aemon, Rhaegar, and Harrenhal.

[AlaskanSandman]

I know i bring up Mance into things often, but im also asking about Rhaegar here too. The bigger point being the connections in the North and why what happened at Harrenhal happened. Like did Bloodraven have knowledge on the Starks that he gave to Aemon who gave to Rhaegar? How many times had Lyanna met Robert? Was Rhaegar never there to meet his cousins betrothed? Im just puzzling out how the North ties into the affairs of the south as we have connections. 

[Jeeves]

Craster could have fathered Mance.  The ages are very possible for this.  

[AlaskanSandman]

8 minutes ago, The First Bloodrider said:

Craster could have fathered Mance.  The ages are very possible for this.  

Something does seem off with Craster and Mance. Mance only mentions Craster once and only while testing Jon. Craster doesn't say much but he does tell us he refuses to kneel to him, and aids the watch, or aids Mance? in telling the Night's Watch that Mance is planning to attack the wall. Was it that hard to figure out? How did that aid the Watch? He told them Mance was looking for something in the Frost Fangs. How would Craster know? 

Why was Craster driven off and Mance wasn't? Yet Craster helps the Watch while Mance served them, but now hates them. The Watch turns a blind eye to Craster and seek his aid, while blasting Mance as an oak breaker. So when did Mance join? Was it by force? What was his option should he not join as a child? Would a southern lord take him in? It all seems off. Something isn't adding up. 

[LindsayLohan]

1 hour ago, AlaskanSandman said:

I know i bring up Mance into things often, but im also asking about Rhaegar here too. The bigger point being the connections in the North and why what happened at Harrenhal happened. Like did Bloodraven have knowledge on the Starks that he gave to Aemon who gave to Rhaegar? How many times had Lyanna met Robert? Was Rhaegar never there to meet his cousins betrothed? Im just puzzling out how the North ties into the affairs of the south as we have connections. 

" Like did Bloodraven have knowledge on the Starks that he gave to Aemon who gave to Rhaegar?" No.

"How many times had Lyanna met Robert?" Zero.

"Was Rhaegar never there to meet his cousins betrothed?" Never there.

[Asshai Backward]

I agree with the part that Qhorin was up to something.  He's been ranging for years with this accomplished "A-team" of badasses, and then he just decides to throw Jon into the mix?  Nah.  The whole plan was to embed Jon, and the creator of that plan (strap on your hats and get your 'fan fic" memes ready to go) was...Mance, Q's old friend.  Mance knew he'd never take the wall by battle, and that the only way to get the wildlings through would be if Jon took them.  The wildlings weren't going to just go to the wall and beg.  Mance knew it would take some bloodshed and strife, and I'm pretty sure he didn't really have every detail mapped out.  Pretty convoluted, I know, but Mance was able to make the leap of faith that it would work, because he is aware that Jon is the PTWP.  In the end, Jon was in metaphor, if not fact, Joramun's Horn.  The only way Mance had to get the wildlings safely to the other side was to have a powerful ally in the watch.  Qhorin's views on the wildlings dovetail with this, and I think he was hip to the idea that getting them past the Wall before they were wightified was in the best interests of the Watch, and all mankind.

Setting all that aside, I AM in agreement that there is more to Mance and Qhorin and even Craster then meets the eye.  I love the speculation of it, but from my experience reading these threads, some hate it, and go out of their way to quash it.

[AlaskanSandman]

41 minutes ago, LindsayLohan said:

" Like did Bloodraven have knowledge on the Starks that he gave to Aemon who gave to Rhaegar?" No.

"How many times had Lyanna met Robert?" Zero.

"Was Rhaegar never there to meet his cousins betrothed?" Never there.

Fair enough opinion

[AlaskanSandman]

13 minutes ago, Asshai Backward said:

I agree with the part that Qhorin was up to something.  He's been ranging for years with this accomplished "A-team" of badasses, and then he just decides to throw Jon into the mix?  Nah.  The whole plan was to embed Jon, and the creator of that plan (strap on your hats and get your 'fan fic" memes ready to go) was...Mance, Q's old friend.  Mance knew he'd never take the wall by battle, and that the only way to get the wildlings through would be if Jon took them.  The wildlings weren't going to just go to the wall and beg.  Mance knew it would take some bloodshed and strife, and I'm pretty sure he didn't really have every detail mapped out.  Pretty convoluted, I know, but Mance was able to make the leap of faith that it would work, because he is aware that Jon is the PTWP.  In the end, Jon was in metaphor, if not fact, Joramun's Horn.  The only way Mance had to get the wildlings safely to the other side was to have a powerful ally in the watch.  Qhorin's views on the wildlings dovetail with this, and I think he was hip to the idea that getting them past the Wall before they were wightified was in the best interests of the Watch, and all mankind.

Setting all that aside, I AM in agreement that there is more to Mance and Qhorin and even Craster then meets the eye.  I love the speculation of it, but from my experience reading these threads, some hate it, and go out of their way to quash it.

I very much agree to the idea that Qhorin believed as you suggest. He is no fool and his talk of the wildlings agrees with this. They are just men. The threat, is the enemy. Something Qhorin seem's more aware of than he's letting on. I also agree that Mance's plan was a little leap of faith. Yet no more than any plan of Varys or Little Finger, and hardly any more convoluted, and with far greater risk at stake. 
I do not believe Rhaegar wanted TPTWP just so Azor Ahai could rule westeros and be his heir. The prophecy is about Azor fighting the darkness. So Rhaegar knew the point of TPTWP was to be involved with the Wall. Bloodraven knows this. Aemon knows this. And i think Mance knows it too. 

And yes, speculation isn't looked at very openly often or not. Especially if your not spelling out a clear defined theory to nit pick. Collectively coming together to question stuff isn't for every one. I still do try to take their comments into consideration though. Away of keeping me honest or not getting too tinfoily with out seriously questioning what your talking about and presenting. That's why i actually enjoy Dorian Martell's Son's input, in spite of it never being in my favor hahah

[Lady Barbrey]

I just wonder, AS, if you might have better responses if you stuck to one question. Like what the significance might be that both Mance and Craster are the bastards of a watcher and a Wildling woman?  I had forgotten that re Mance, for instance.  But I had always wondered when Ygritte said Craster had black blood if it was because his dad was a black crow or she meant there was something evil in him.  She doesn't say this about Mance.  And what is black blood, in essence?  It's old or 'dead' blood.  So now I know black blood doesn't refer to black crow blood, I'm imagining it's either an expression re evil in general, or a specific term Wildlings use to designate those who associate with or may even be related to the Others.  I'll be looking out for its use again.

That's something I got from your post - thanks!

 

 

[Jeeves]

5 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Something does seem off with Craster and Mance. Mance only mentions Craster once and only while testing Jon. Craster doesn't say much but he does tell us he refuses to kneel to him, and aids the watch, or aids Mance? in telling the Night's Watch that Mance is planning to attack the wall. Was it that hard to figure out? How did that aid the Watch? He told them Mance was looking for something in the Frost Fangs. How would Craster know? 

Why was Craster driven off and Mance wasn't? Yet Craster helps the Watch while Mance served them, but now hates them. The Watch turns a blind eye to Craster and seek his aid, while blasting Mance as an oak breaker. So when did Mance join? Was it by force? What was his option should he not join as a child? Would a southern lord take him in? It all seems off. Something isn't adding up. 

Craster was a friend to the watch because they were providing him with useful things.  He doesn't raid and steal like the other wildlings.  The watch would have no trouble with the wildlings if they minded their own affairs and stayed on their side of the wall.  The reason they are enemies is because the wildlings cross the wall and do mischief on the south side.  They are the cause for the gift becoming fallow land.  

Mance was taken in as a child.  His mother was a wildling.  The watch gave him an education and raised him as one of theirs.  He rose up the ranks.  But this story is about the destructiveness of family loyalty.  We are reading a story about families.  The watch took the boy out of the wild.  But they failed to take the wild out of the boy.  The wild could not be taken from the boy.  The boy remained wild.  The pattern is there.  Been there since Gared left the wall to warn his family.  Jaime maimed an innocent boy for his family.  It's not an adequate excuse but none of the following deeds done for the sake of family are.  Theon chose his family over his friends.  Tyrion chose to support his family over Stannis even though he probably suspected who Joffrey's real parents are.  Jon betrayed his own men for the sake of his sister.  The better choice to compare with Mance is Jon.  They have more in common.  

Bloodraven saw and see a lot from his tree.  He can send messages through dreams.  But he can't force Bran to come to him.  The receiver of the message may not accept.  It may be too much to credit him with Harrenhal.  The tourney at white walls was set for the benefit of the Blackfyre supporters.  The one at Harrenhal was a kingdom-wide tourney for unknown motives.  It was not a politically homogeneous crowd like it was at white walls.  It looks to me like the first salvo from the Targaryen camp against the Stark conspiracy.  The location was chosen because it was a reminder to what happened to the House of Hoare.  It was a first strike at the heart of undecided opponent Hoster Tully.  Rhaegar was supposed to win the contest as well as the hearts of the people.  Instead he fucks up and crowns the Stark girl.  I guess that could be considered an aggressive strategy against the Baratheon future husband.  I have read recent theories that the man behind the helm was not really Rhaegar but an impostor.  It was probably a hedge knight who admired Lyanna from afar and saw his chance to honor her.  Look at it this way.  Brandon had a woman who wanted him but couldn't have him because of Rickard's plans.  Why not the same for Lyanna.  What if she had an admirer who couldn't have her because her father promised her to Robert.  Lyanna felt the same way for this man.  He traveled to the south with the Stark escorts and brought the flowers with him from the Winterfell glass gardens.  

 

[Dorian Martell's son]

19 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Why would Mance need to mention it? Yoren didn't mention it either, yet some one had to be that Black brother. Why mention one there? 

never said yoren was there either. 

19 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Crasters relationship to the watch compared to Mance is interesting but Mance does mention Craster with Tormund when asking Jon how he knew stuff.

Fair. 

19 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

And you really think Aemon and Brendyn never discussed prophecy on their long time together at the wall? 

They may or may not have, but since it was not mentioned, it is not relevant to the plot. What is important is Aemon and Rhaegar did, often, and how it could lead to the tourney in the false spring, Howland's journey, Rhaegar's victory Lyanna's, crowning, Rhaegar and Lyanna having Jon and then everything we know of Bob's rebellion.  

19 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

And yes, i know that's how they communicate. Still doesn't change the fact that Bloodraven uses those ravens, and him and Aemon served together for a long time and likely spoke manyyyy times. Whether Aemon realized Bloodraven was privy to those messages, idk. That is where im speculating and questioning.

So, bloodraven wargs  a raven  carrying a message from the prince to the wall, has the raven stop, light a candle, melt the wax seal of the prince, remove the letter from the tube, open it, read it, roll it back up, melt new wax, use a copy of the royal seal and royal wax it has stashed with the candle to reseal the princes letter, put it back in the tube and then continued on to the wall? 
Because that is how it would have to work 

19 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

And how is it a symbol for House Reed and House Stark? Since when do they emblazon images of weirwood trees on things? Find me one evidence for this claim.

Who said it was a sigil? It is literally what they pray to. Seriously, read the books. 

19 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

And why does Mance need to mention it for it to work? There was a Black brother there, and Mance served at the time. Plus Jon sent a brother south hoping his singing would win members. So it is "plausible" he was there, imo.

Because that is how stories work. We the reader are shown/told what happens. What you are doing is writing your own story in the absence of what you want the story to be.
It is in no way plausible, because the tourney was one of the major pre-book plot points we have been told about. Mance talked about  going to Winterfell as a ranger, and going there as king to watch another king. If he was at harrenhal at the tourney, he would have mentioned it, as it was a defining moment in the history of westeros.
Yoren and Daeron went south and both died. We are actually shown this. That packs far more meaning and symbolism than your fan fic. Watchmen go south, they die. Aemon goes south - dead. Jon goes south - dead or grievously wounded. Samwell- ?
The great Other being the bastard child of Megatron and Optimus Prime is as plausible as what you propose.

19 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

And no, the belief Rhaegar did, is central to the books. Eddard never once confirms that Rhaegar took Lyanna or that he raped her, or that he had a kid with her. So we have no first hand confirmation to any of it.

Again, you need to understand how stories work. There is no question that Rhaegar took off with Lyanna. We are told so by numerous sources (bob, cersei, the world book etc.) Whether it was kidnapping and rape, or teen love/lust has has yet to be shown (it has actually, two years ago ,but we are not allowed to mention it) but as one of the primary mysteries of the series, it will be.  

19 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Qhorin laughs at those same vows, so that's not evidence in your favor for your argument. He tell's Jon they're just word to keep them warm. 

He has a change of heart:

“If any man in the Night’s Watch can make it through the Frostfangs alone and afoot, it is you, brother. You can go over mountains that a horse must go around. Make for the Fist. Tell Mormont what Jon saw, and how. Tell him that the old powers are waking, that he faces giants and wargs and worse. Tell him that the trees have eyes again.”

Then, later in the same chapter: 

“Is your sword sharp, Jon Snow?” asked Qhorin Halfhand across the flickering fire.
“My sword is Valyrian steel. The Old Bear gave it to me.”
“Do you remember the words of your vow?”
“Yes.” They were not words a man was like to forget. Once said, they could never be unsaid. They changed your life forever.
“Say them again with me, Jon Snow.”
“If you like.” Their voices blended as one beneath the rising moon, while Ghost listened and the mountains themselves bore witness. “Night gathers, and now my watch begins. It shall not end until my death. I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children. I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post. I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men. I pledge my life and honor to the Night’s Watch, for this night and all the nights to come. 
When they were done, there was no sound but the faint crackle of the flames and a distant sigh of wind. Jon opened and closed his burnt fingers, holding tight to the words in his mind, praying that his father’s gods would give him the strength to die bravely when his hour came. It would not be long now. The garrons were near the end of their strength. Qhorin’s mount would not last another day, Jon suspected.
The flames were burning low by then, the warmth fading. “The fire will soon go out,” Qhorin said, “but if the Wall should ever fall, all the fires will go out.”

You see, we the readers are literally shown this. We aren't shown anything you propose.
Reading the books instead of writing fan fic based on crackpot tinfoil theories you read here seems to be the issue. 

19 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

And why is Jon the only one who can infiltrate them? Why would he think the son of Mance's enemy would be welcome? Qhorin and Mance shouldn't know of any theory that Rhaegar is Jon's father. They would think Jon was Eddards' son. 

Again, if you had read the books you would know, but let be tell you, Jon is a bastard (as far as he and everyone else knows) and the treatment of  bastards is well known. Jon, as a recent recruit and an outsider in the world of kneelers would be a far more plausible turncoat than a seasoned long time member of the watch who is well known by Mance.
Of course Qhorin and Mance would have no knowledge of a Jon Snow parentage theory. Why would they? There is no public internet in westeros. 
 Again, your focus on theories presented here, and not on what is actually written seems to be your main stumbling block. Go for a re-read without checking here a all and after you have read all 5 books again, come back and see if your theories still make sense. I bet they won't.
 

[Dorian Martell's son]

17 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

If i was going with my own fan fic, rather than questioning and trying to figure out what happened. I would just say Arthur Dayne is Jon's father and Dawn is his, but he's going to kill Dany with it and side with the Others and lead them hahah

Jon being a Dayne and getting Dawn as a sword in the stone type deal is just as implausible as Mance being the tree knight being manipulated by bloodraven with the knowledge of Aemon, If you read the books of corse. Your theories make perfect sense if your only knowledge of the story is this forum.  

[Rufus Snow]

FWIW, I find it highly unlikely that Mance was ever sent south as a recruiter, because we have Qhorin's evidence that Mance was a ranger, and not just A ranger but the BEST ranger

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Jon VII

"For a wench, some say. For a crown, others would have it." Qhorin tested the edge of his sword with the ball of his thumb. "He liked women, Mance did, and he was not a man whose knees bent easily, that's true. But it was more than that. He loved the wild better than the Wall. It was in his blood. He was wildling born, taken as a child when some raiders were put to the sword. When he left the Shadow Tower he was only going home again."

"Was he a good ranger?"

"He was the best of us," said the Halfhand, "and the worst as well. Only fools like Thoren Smallwood despise the wildlings. They are as brave as we are, Jon. As strong, as quick, as clever. But they have no discipline. They name themselves the free folk, and each one thinks himself as good as a king and wiser than a maester. Mance was the same. He never learned how to obey."

The Watch has had some poor Lord Commaders, but one who sends his BEST RANGER out as a recruiter would have to be one crazy damn' fool indeed. I think that rules out Mance being at Harrenhal, especially given that we also have Yoren's evidence that he was already recruiting back then. If that Black Brother is anyone we (as readers) know, we have no grounds for assuming it's anyone other than Yoren.

 

 

[AlaskanSandman]

3 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

never said yoren was there either. 

Fair. 

They may or may not have, but since it was not mentioned, it is not relevant to the plot. What is important is Aemon and Rhaegar did, often, and how it could lead to the tourney in the false spring, Howland's journey, Rhaegar's victory Lyanna's, crowning, Rhaegar and Lyanna having Jon and then everything we know of Bob's rebellion.  

So, bloodraven wargs  a raven  carrying a message from the prince to the wall, has the raven stop, light a candle, melt the wax seal of the prince, remove the letter from the tube, open it, read it, roll it back up, melt new wax, use a copy of the royal seal it has stashed with the candle and then continued on to the wall? 
Because that is how it would have to work 

Who said it was a sigil? It is literally what they pray to. Seriously, read the books. 

Because that is how stories work. We the reader are shown/told what happens. What you are doing is writing your own story in the absence of what you want the story to be.
It is in no way plausible, because the tourney was one of the major pre-book plot points we have been told about. Mance talked about  going to Winterfell as a ranger, and going there as king to watch another king. If he was at harrenhal at the tourney, he would have mentioned it, as it was a defining moment in the history of westeros.
Yoren and Daeron went south and both died. We are actually shown this. That packs far more meaning and symbolism than your fan fic. Watchmen go south, they die. Aemon goes south - dead. Jon goes south - dead or grievously wounded. Samwell- ?
The great Other being the bastard child of Megatron and Optimus Prime is as plausible as what you propose.

Again, you need to understand how stories work. There is no question that Rhaegar took off with Lyanna. We are told so by numerous sources (bob, cersei, the world book etc.) Whether it was kidnapping and rape, or teen love/lust has has yet to be shown (it has actually, two years ago ,but we are not allowed to mention it) but as one of the primary mysteries of the series, it will be.  

He has a change of heart:

“If any man in the Night’s Watch can make it through the Frostfangs alone and afoot, it is you, brother. You can go over mountains that a horse must go around. Make for the Fist. Tell Mormont what Jon saw, and how. Tell him that the old powers are waking, that he faces giants and wargs and worse. Tell him that the trees have eyes again.”

Then, later in the same chapter: 

“Is your sword sharp, Jon Snow?” asked Qhorin Halfhand across the flickering fire.
“My sword is Valyrian steel. The Old Bear gave it to me.”
“Do you remember the words of your vow?”
“Yes.” They were not words a man was like to forget. Once said, they could never be unsaid. They changed your life forever.
“Say them again with me, Jon Snow.”
“If you like.” Their voices blended as one beneath the rising moon, while Ghost listened and the mountains themselves bore witness. “Night gathers, and now my watch begins. It shall not end until my death. I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children. I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post. I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men. I pledge my life and honor to the Night’s Watch, for this night and all the nights to come. 
When they were done, there was no sound but the faint crackle of the flames and a distant sigh of wind. Jon opened and closed his burnt fingers, holding tight to the words in his mind, praying that his father’s gods would give him the strength to die bravely when his hour came. It would not be long now. The garrons were near the end of their strength. Qhorin’s mount would not last another day, Jon suspected.
The flames were burning low by then, the warmth fading. “The fire will soon go out,” Qhorin said, “but if the Wall should ever fall, all the fires will go out.”

You see, we the readers are literally shown this. We aren't shown anything you propose.
Reading the books instead of writing fan fic based on crackpot tinfoil theories you read here seems to be the issue. 

Again, if you had read the books you would know, but let be tell you, Jon is a bastard (as far as he and everyone else knows) and the treatment of  bastards is well known. Jon, as a recent recruit and an outsider in the world of kneelers would be a far more plausible turncoat than a seasoned long time member of the watch who is well known by Mance.
Of course Qhorin and Mance would have no knowledge of a Jon Snow parentage theory. Why would they? There is no public internet in westeros. 
 Again, your focus on theories presented here, and not on what is actually written seems to be your main stumbling block. Go for a re-read without checking here a all and after you have read all 5 books again, come back and see if your theories still make sense. I bet they won't.
 

You don't do well with clues unless they're spelled out for you like a color by numbers book. It cracks me up  

And no, that's not how all stories work lol maybe kids books. How are you supposed to create misdirection with that kind of logic?

Pretty sure raven's have eyes and quite good one and plenty capable of reading it while it's being written. With out all that silliness 

So because the Tourney never came up in conversation between Jon and Mance (And no reason it would), he obviously wasn't there. Even though there was a black brother there. And you say it wasn't Yoren. Even though you know, there is a clue that one was there. You know, that work done by authors to lay the grounds for a misdirection. But i guess Meera mentioning the Black brother was as unimportant as letting us know Robert was ignoring Lyanna and caught up drinking and getting drunk. Or that Ashara danced with specific people. Or anything else mentioned by Meera other than the Knight cause it was obviously Lyanna. The rest was just filler

Robert, Cersei and Yandel were there when Lyanna was kidnapped? They were there when she died? They can vouch as eye witnesses? This is new to me, thankfully your here to set that straight hahah

"Tell them the tree's have eye's again"........... Yea, that sounds like Yoren is real concerned with Mance Rayder. Cause you know, Mance see's through the tree's and uses the magic of the Cotf. You sure you not on some fan fiction? 

And Mance was hoping Ygritte was enough to make Jon turn according to him. Ygritte who Qhorin helped get Jon to steal. After purposefully sabotaging their mission by even bringing Jon and his Wolf (who gets them spotted). To which even Jeor is shocked he wants to bring Jon. To which Mance, Qhorin and Craster all are interested in Jon by his looks, the look of Lyanna Stark. The look of the Starks. The most die hard people in the North. So yea, bastard or not, there is noooooo reason to think Jon would turn. At all. He's not Mance, he's not a wildling. He's of noble birth, who's own father beheaded deserters. Jon isn't running north, and Mance is stupid if he believes that. Jon being left at the wall cause he was a bastard is stupid too. Why wasn't Brandon Snow at the Wall then? I imagine Torhen would have just as much problem placing him and finding him a bride. I imagine his lady mother may not have been fond of Brandon. So where's your iron clad examples in the books of once something is written is fact and only what Dorian interprets?  Your cut and dry excuse for why Jon is at the Wall, and being handed over to Mance, and Mance's cut and dry past, just aren't adding up for me or other people. Whether any one has a defined theory is irrelevant. No one has a defined theory for LF's master plan either. Or whether Aegon is real. Or many more. Jon has been tested once before this and stayed loyal, over his own family. He aint breaking it for a woman or Mance. Not Mance as you claim Mance is at least. If Jon wanted a woman he could bounce to the free cities and join the second son's or some sell sword company.  Why would Mance or Qhorin think Jon would opt for life beyond the wall over life in the east? Daemon did it, im sure Jon could manage. 

And the weirwood is being used as a sigil by TKOTLT. Or should i explain how sigils work? And yes, give me one example of the Northerners using the weirwood for a symbol or sigil otherrrrrr than wildlings, like Val and he weirwood brooch. Arya has plenty of times she could have drawn one or something. As a reminder of home. No Northerner uses the weirwoods as an image as the Faith uses the seven pointed star. Blackwoods are the only example i know of. But they're tied to Bloodraven so forget that lol I just think its funny that just cause the Knight has a weirwood on him, it hasssss to be Reed or Stark. Who associate with lizards and wolves. I mean, i see your logic. I just think its weak as the only evidence. Cause House Reed and Stark make up the North. The Knight's not Reed, cause how would meeting Howland lead Rhaegar to fall for Lyanna? Pimping her out? Lyanna is your best chance, but Meera and Jojen repeatedly refer to him as a "GUY". And since it's "spelled out" in the books as you say. I believe he was a male, and not Howland, or Benjen ( who would also have to act as a pimp for Lyanna).

[AlaskanSandman]

18 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

FWIW, I find it highly unlikely that Mance was ever sent south as a recruiter, because we have Qhorin's evidence that Mance was a ranger, and not just A ranger but the BEST ranger

The Watch has had some poor Lord Commaders, but one who sends his BEST RANGER out as a recruiter would have to be one crazy damn' fool indeed. I think that rules out Mance being at Harrenhal, especially given that we also have Yoren's evidence that he was already recruiting back then. If that Black Brother is anyone we (as readers) know, we have no grounds for assuming it's anyone other than Yoren.

They send Allister, who according to Mormont is one of the best they currently have. Plus Daeron is sent for his singing ability. Something Mance has. You can send some one once, as in the case of Allister, and never use them again.

[AlaskanSandman]

4 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Jon being a Dayne and getting Dawn as a sword in the stone type deal is just as implausible as Mance being the tree knight being manipulated by bloodraven with the knowledge of Aemon, If you read the books of corse. Your theories make perfect sense if your only knowledge of the story is this forum.  

If your knowledge of the books is only this forum, every one would have a humdrum boring opinion of the books as you do. Not all of do, and some of us think GRRM is a better writer than apparently you do. And capable of telling a much more layered intelligent story than your color by numbers book. You and the "truthers" always going around trying to smash anything thats outside of your exceptable Rhaegar and Lyanna are the answer for everything. How's the book end? Idk, Rhaegar and Lyanna man. Its all spelled out duh. Should we question anything else? Na, faith brotha. Rhaegar and Lyanna shall not lead us wrong. What about all these other characters? Meh, meaningless flesh sacks merely a vehicle for forwarding the plot of our good brother and sister Rhaegar and Lyanna. Jon is TPTWP and he shall wake dragons from stone and fight with Dawn and marry his aunt Dany. So awesome. Ygritte and her incest hating soulless ginger self knows nothing. She's missing out. Mance served his purpose, Jon's little turn to the dark side to get him to feel for the wildlings and let them pass. So Mance is dead now and of no plot significance. Melisandre didn't keep him alive for more. Oh wait, yes she did. Hmm, well, he simply is just a plot device to free fake Arya. He's for sure a dead man now. Oh wait, that was Theon that freed her..... well idk, im sure that useless meat sack is still just a plot device to get Jon to side with the Wildlings or something. I mean, that nameless adaptation killed him, so he's definitely as irrelevant as those older Tyrell brothers. Useless meat sacks every where. Lol Better not see any fan fiction on those Tyrell's either. Meat sacks

[AlaskanSandman]

snip 

[kissdbyfire]

Just now, AlaskanSandman said:

They send Allister, who according to Mormont is one of the best they currently have. Plus Daeron is sent for his singing ability. Something Mance has. You can send some one once, as in the case of Allister, and never use them again.

Thorne is the master-at-arms, and a high ranking officer. Totally different than a regular ranger. And they sent Thorne to KL to ask for help, not as a "hedge recruiter" which, again, is totally different. 

@Rufus Snow, great point re Mance being a ranger!

[AlaskanSandman]

2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Thorne is the master-at-arms, and a high ranking officer. Totally different than a regular ranger. And they sent Thorne to KL to ask for help, not as a "hedge recruiter" which, again, is totally different. 

@Rufus Snow, great point re Mance being a ranger!

And yet Jon sends Allister on a ranging. Guess he's just flexible like that hahah 

[AlaskanSandman]

5 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

 

So do you disagree with evidence in the North for Valyrian activity like the Wolf's Den being raised against Valyrian's, or Bael having a Valyrian name and Hardhome being burned down. 
Reread that book. Reread Qhorin and Ygritte. Bael over took the Stark Bloodline on the male side. Meaning Jon may be Valyrian through Bael. Same as Ygritte who is kissed by fire. 

Does this not give Mance the Fire aspect and Lyanna the Ice aspect? Does this not still make Jon the son of Ice and Fire? All clues laid out in Jon's chapters, having nothing to do with Rhaegar. 

Queen's Crown? Alysanne and the North? Do none of these clues seem odd and adding up to something?

[Seams]

20 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

If it's relevant in any way, you need clues. If there's no mention anywhere about who this black brother was, it's because it has no relevance to the plot.

... But everything here is speculation

16 hours ago, Lady Barbrey said:

I just wonder, AS, if you might have better responses if you stuck to one question.

These comments get at some of my thinking. The op seems to begin by providing evidence about Mance and Craster's background. Then it inexplicably transitions to a rationalization about a relationship between these two free folk and Targaryen family members. Then brings up a bunch of possibilities about who was who at the tourney and feast at Harrenhal and how that might have played out with some new twists on the fate of Lyanna Stark. A lot to cover in one thread!

There are some interesting topics here, to be sure; worth analyzing. I realize you have borrowed and repackaged a number of points you and others made on the recent Tower of Joy discussion, but I think all of these ideas would benefit from some effort to closely search the books for clues, hints, foreshadowing, evidence, etc. to back up some of the ideas.

In the early part of the op, where you are directly citing excerpts from the books, the references to singers and to cutting out tongues may provide a set of hints about the Mance / Craster relationship you want to sort out.

"That Mance Rayder?" Craster spit into the fire. "King-beyond-the-Wall. What do free folk want with kings?" He turned his squint on Mormont. "There's much I could tell you o' Rayder and his doings, if I had a mind. This o' the empty villages, that's his work. You would have found this hall abandoned as well, if I were a man to scrape to such. He sends a rider, tells me I must leave my own keep to come grovel at his feet. I sent the man back, but kept his tongue. It's nailed to that wall there." He pointed. "Might be that I could tell you where to seek Mance Rayder. If I had a mind." The brown smile again. "But we'll have time enough for that. You'll be wanting to sleep beneath my roof, be like, and eat me out of pigs."

(ACoK, Jon III)

Mance's messenger delivered an unwelcome message to Craster and the latter cut out the tongue of the rider. Where have we seen something similar? Right, when King Aerys cut out the tongue of Ser Ilyn Payne after Payne was heard saying that Tywin Lannister was the real ruler of the seven kingdoms. A similar unwelcome message about who is in charge with a similar outcome of silencing the messenger. Does that mean that Craster = Aerys and Mance = Tywin? Rhaegar and Tywin may have been in collusion, so maybe the Mance = Tywin match could work on that level. But the equation still doesn't quite feel right to me, so I would widen the analysis and think about other people with tongues cut out.

The Dusky Woman. Euron Greyjoy cut out the tongue and sent her to Victarion. Hmm. There we have brothers, both of whom would like to marry Daenerys and become ruler of the Iron Islands and/or Iron Throne. Could be an interesting parallel with your query about Mance / Craster's possible relationship. We may need more information before understanding whether or how this sheds light on Mance / Craster.

Symon Silver Tongue. This was a singer who wanted to perform at Joffrey's wedding and tried to blackmail Tyrion about Shae to secure his assistance. The name identifies him as part of the tongue motif but Tyrion didn't just have his tongue removed, he had Bronn kill the guy and dispose of the body in the Flea Bottom pot shops that make the stew known as brown. So the situation was somewhat similar, in that Symon had a message that Tyrion didn't want to hear. Was it a message about who was the ruler? Turns out it was, in a way: Tywin apparently ruled Tyrion's girlfriend with his hands of gold. Tyrion used to wear that chain of office, but Tywin took it back. So Tyrion strangles Shae without letting her explain what she is doing in Tywin's bed. Is that similar to cutting out someone's tongue? This feels as if it's getting a little too far from Mance / Craster, but it's worth keeping on a back burner. It is another example of family members in conflict over power, with a silenced messenger caught in the middle.

Singer at King's Landing. A street or tavern performer makes up a song about Cersei sending the boar to kill Robert. Joffrey doesn't like his message and gives the singer the choice of losing his fingers or his tongue. Is this about a family power struggle? Joffrey is silencing the message about a Cersei / Robert power struggle so it might fit the pattern.

Along with Symon Silver Tongue and with Marillion's torture / maiming by Littlefinger, this silencing of singers might lead into the next set of questions you raised, about whether a singer, such as Mance, was the Night's Watch recruiter at the feast at Harrenhal. Of course, Arya (as Cat of the Canals) recognizes the singer Dareon as a Night's Watch deserter in Braavos, slitting his throat and pushing his body into a canal. (I think this gets more into the Catelyn / Arya parallel than the Mance / Craster mysteries, but it might hold truths about both situations.)

Like Mance, Dareon is also a singer and an eventual deserter. But the Harrenhal story, as told by Meera, indicates that the dragon prince sang a sad song at the feast. Contrary to the usual symbolism of a tournament victory, Rhaegar is soon killed, with his body falling in the river where he fights Robert. Sounds closer to the death of Dareon than the fate of a silenced singer. In seeking a better understanding of Rhaegar, is it worth noting that Dareon "marries" the Sailor's Wife before Arya kills him? Dareon is also dressed in shades of purple on his last night alive, which I believe to be a Targaryen color. For what it's worth, I also believe that references to silent sisters are sometimes symbolic of Lyanna Stark, whose voice is not heard in the series, except through Ned's narrow memory of her asking him to make a promise.

This line of inquiry might be a dead end or you might do the digging to find other examples and see if you can find a pattern that would shed light on other singers at feasts, and whether there is more evidence to support your Mance-as-recruiter theories. Details like these are the resource I turn to when I want to try to establish or understand a relationship between things in the story.

One point came to me earlier today that might support your "Mance = Knight of the Laughing Tree" theory. One of the first anagram wordplay solutions that felt right to me is "deserter = red trees." I wasn't sure why GRRM equated these things, but Gared being executed on a tree stump seemed to fit the possible wordplay. Mance as that particular mystery knight would also support that anagram possibility.

On the other hand, GRRM may equate "deserter" with oathbreakers in general. Lyanna may be breaking her oath to her father and to Robert Baratheon if she willingly undermines her betrothal. Benjen may be a deserter at this point - we don't know why he has disappeared on his ranging beyond the Wall. (And he happens to be one of my top candidates for the KotLT.) Rhaegar may be betraying his father and his marriage vows at Harrenhal. Still open to interpretation, unless you dig into the text and find more clues.