US Politics: Paradise Lost

[OldGimletEye]

Biased conservative universities.

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/14/18042478/higher-education-corporate-cash-universities-joshua-hunt

Quote

What he found, ultimately, was a university culture thoroughly corrupted by its entanglements with corporate America — the school’s questionable handling of the rape allegations was just the tip of the iceberg.

In this case, the corporate sponsor was Phil Knight, the co-founder and chair of Nike, one of the biggest companies on the planet. An alumnus of the University of Oregon, Knight has become the school’s most prominent donor, giving almost $1 billion to the university since 1994. His donations are largely responsible for transforming Oregon’s athletics program into a national powerhouse.

The NYT investigative reporter, Joshua Hunt, wrote a book about what he discovered at Oregon, titled University of Nike. But the book is not just about Knight and Oregon; it’s about how public universities are compromising themselves in exchange for endorsement deals and financial partnerships — and about what happens when universities become shills for their billionaire benefactors. It’s also, crucially, about the consequences of states defunding higher education, which has created the space for corporations to step in and foot the bill.

 

[Fez]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

I'm not sure about that - the two have been longtime rivals.  

That's why I think they're a package deal. I don't think either will agree to leave unless they know that the other one is leaving too. Which could be problematic since there may be enough votes to stop them (or at least Pelosi) from winning, but there aren't enough votes to cause them to lose. Internal stalemate is not a good look for a new majority.

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

The compromise I expect to see is that most of the Democrats who pledged not to support Pelosi will abstain from voting, rather than voting against her.  This would mean that Pelosi only needs the support of more Democrats than the Republican caucus, which would be something like 203 or so.  That would allow 25-30 Democrats to get away with not officially supporting her.  Now, if there's a few die hards like Moulton who will definitely vote no, not just abstain, then that number goes down, but nonetheless the math is there.

I'm a little disappointed, there are so many women in the Democratic Caucus, I had really hoped that one of them would want to step into the limelight and challenge Pelosi.  But it's looking more and more like that isn't going to happen.  I still think that the Democrats always need to make sure they have some youngish people in prominent roles, much more so than Republicans do. 

I wonder about the abstaining thing. I don't think the incoming members would go for it, it looks too feckless and its too easy to get attacked for it back home. The current members are in a safer position to do it, but they're more likely to genuinely want Pelosi gone (whereas at least some of incoming members probably are motivated just by electoral concerns).

ETA: Rather than a compromise, I think the most likely scenario is that this group just doesn't have the votes and Pelosi has the margin to get elected Speaker without them. It looks like there probably need to be about 19 firm 'nays' to block her, and I wouldn't be surprised if there are only 13 or 14, even though Moulton and Tim Ryan claim there are 20. We'll see.

[DMC]

11 minutes ago, Fez said:

That's why I think they're a package deal. I don't think either will agree to leave unless they know that the other one is leaving too.

Ah.  Gotcha.

11 minutes ago, Fez said:

It looks like there probably need to be about 19 firm 'nays' to block her, and I wouldn't be surprised if there are only 13 or 14

How ya figure 19?  You think they're gonna get 236 seats?  Wouldn't they have to win all of the remaining contests to do so?

[Fez]

24 minutes ago, DMC said:

How ya figure 19?  You think they're gonna get 236 seats?  Wouldn't they have to win all of the remaining contests to do so?

My math could be wrong, but they're at 228 right now with 9 undecided, right? Or is that not up-to-date?

Assuming that's right, yeah, I do think they have a good chance of getting 8 of the 9. They've got leads that look safe in CA-45, NJ-3, and NY-22 and I think McAdams hangs on in UT-4. I think ME-2 flips as soon as the RCVs are tabulated and that CA-39 will eventually flip as more votes are counted (Young Kim is down to only a 711 vote lead right now). The last three are tricker, but I think GA-7 has a decent chance of flipping as more provisionals are counted (the Republican lead is down under 1,000 votes now), especially with the court order against Gwinnett county. NY-27 is less likely, but Collins only has a 3,000 vote lead with 18,000 votes left to county. The last one, TX-23 I think is the only one truly out of reach; Hurd's lead is tiny, but I don't think there are enough votes left to count.

So yeah, about 19 nays are needed, maybe 18.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

11 hours ago, Fez said:

I definitely want to see new leadership, but I don't want to see chaos right at the start of the new majority either. Hopefully Moulton, Tim Ryan, et al. can come up with a specific candidate for Speaker, and it better be someone the left-wing of the caucus is fine with as well, or things are going to get messy.

 

11 hours ago, DMC said:

The obvious compromise is to let those opposed to Pelosi help choose a majority leader and put Steny out to pasture.

*Tywin puts on his party boss hat*

 

You need this: one man, one woman, one white person and one minority. Preferably not from the coasts. So…..

Speaker of the House: Tim Ryan

Majority Leader: Sheila Jackson Lee

 

Let Pelosi and Hoyer begin the 116^th Congress with their leadership titles and have them retire the next day.

Also, who names their kid Steny?

[DMC]

11 minutes ago, Fez said:

My math could be wrong, but they're at 228 right now with 9 undecided, right? Or is that not up-to-date?

Assuming that's right, yeah, I do think they have a good chance of getting 8 of the 9. They've got leads that look safe in CA-45, NJ-3, and NY-22 and I think McAdams hangs on in UT-4. I think ME-2 flips as soon as the RCVs are tabulated and that CA-39 will eventually flip as more votes are counted (Young Kim is down to only a 711 vote lead right now). The last three are tricker

I think your math is right, but disagree with the last three, which would make it 234, or 17 needed votes.  Anyway, just wondering.

9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Speaker of the House: Tim Ryan

Majority Leader: Sheila Jackson Lee

I know my scenario wasn't realistic, but didn't know we were going full-on fantasy.   

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

I know my scenario wasn't realistic, but didn't know we were going full-on fantasy.   

How dare you!

Also isn’t saying you’re a “huge huge dork” redundant, given that one of its meanings is a whale’s junk?

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

given that one of its meanings is a whale’s junk?

Did not know that.  Learn something new every day.  Valuable information, too.

[Morpheus]

Fake news

https://www.thoughtco.com/the-definition-of-dork-has-nothing-to-do-with-whales-3970586

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

Fake news

https://www.thoughtco.com/the-definition-of-dork-has-nothing-to-do-with-whales-3970586

Glad we're getting to the bottom of this!

[Morpheus]

Just now, DMC said:

Glad we're getting to the bottom of this!

Gotta focus on the important things, the world being so boring these days.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

27 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

Fake news

https://www.thoughtco.com/the-definition-of-dork-has-nothing-to-do-with-whales-3970586

Urban dictionary says you’re a liar!!!

[OldGimletEye]

Republican Party decides it needs better "messaging". Or to put things better more bluntly, they have decided they need to become better liars, though they are pretty good at that already.

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/14/18092140/liz-cheney-house-gop-conference-chair-2020

Quote

House Republicans had a messaging problem in 2018. So Republicans have elected a new messenger: Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, former Vice President Dick Cheney’s daughter.

Cheney was picked to be the House GOP conference chair, in a Republican-only vote Wednesday. The post will put her in charge of the party’s communications strategy, both internally and externally, crafting House Republicans’ message and keeping lawmakers in line. The position will make her the highest-ranking Republican woman in the House, third behind Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Minority Whip Steve Scalise.

Looks like Liz Cheney has been appointed as the chief liar of the Republican Party.

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

Looks like Liz Cheney has been appointed as the chief liar of the Republican Party.

So they replaced the comparatively moderate Cathy McMorris Rodgers with Cheney.  Not a good sign.

[Fez]

Back to election news, yesterday it was reported that the NRSC was spending a $1 million on advertising down in Mississippi for the run-off senate election and that the RNC was sending some number of staffers to the state as well. This is probably just insurance, rather than a sign of it becoming a real race, but good to see Republicans aren't getting the seat for free.

And today it was reported that the main senate Democratic super-PAC has bought TV ad time beginning this Friday in Mississippi, though I haven't seen what the size of the buy is. I'm glad national Democrats aren't totally writing the race off. Unfortunately, I just don't see an obvious path to victory for Espy other than "low-turnout elections can get weird." Maybe a bunch of the McDaniels voters stay home, but I really doubt all of them do (and I can't see any voting for Espy, even out of spite), and even without them, Hyde-Smith had a very slight lead over Espy.

But oh how sweet the upset victory would be.

[lokisnow]

3 minutes ago, Fez said:

Back to election news, yesterday it was reported that the NRSC was spending a $1 million on advertising down in Mississippi for the run-off senate election and that the RNC was sending some number of staffers to the state as well. This is probably just insurance, rather than a sign of it becoming a real race, but good to see Republicans aren't getting the seat for free.

And today it was reported that the main senate Democratic super-PAC has bought TV ad time beginning this Friday in Mississippi, though I haven't seen what the size of the buy is. I'm glad national Democrats aren't totally writing the race off. Unfortunately, I just don't see an obvious path to victory for Espy other than "low-turnout elections can get weird." Maybe a bunch of the McDaniels voters stay home, but I really doubt all of them do (and I can't see any voting for Espy, even out of spite), and even without them, Hyde-Smith had a very slight lead over Espy.

But oh how sweet the upset victory would be.

I’d love an upset in MS, there are more black voters than in Alabama and there black women did the hard work to get Doug Jones elected , so I feel like there is a fair possibility here as well.

high turnout black voters and low turnout white voters would be a recipe for taking the seat. If the special election reflects other special election turnout rather than the midterm turnout, it seems like there’s a small but decent chance.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

14 minutes ago, DMC said:

So they replaced the comparatively moderate Cathy McMorris Rodgers with Cheney.  Not a good sign.

Since you were just looking at the liberal/conservative rankings, have you seen a breakdown on the Republicans who lost? Because my gut tells me they were more likely to be moderate which could explain this change, among others to come.  

[Lollygag]

The Speaker needs to be able to handle a potential constitutional crisis where the House is the only thing standing between order and everything crumbling apart. It isn’t a good time to put in someone who we’re not sure can handle that just because they have nice optics.

Another problem, the Democrats now aren’t the Democrats of 2 years ago. They now span socialists, more progressives, everyone in the middle, to I guess you’d call them Reagan Democrats, and now Republicans who aren’t going back because there’s nothing left to go back to and will want a focus on the economy and fiscal responsibility. The new speaker will have to manage a very wide range of interests.

Forgot to include a percentage of independents and swing voters who really aren't independents or swing voters anymore as being that means you have more than one choice. If you're strongly anti-Trump, you don't have any choice left.

 

[DMC]

17 minutes ago, Fez said:

it was reported that the NRSC was spending a $1 million on advertising down in Mississippi for the run-off senate election

Man that seems like being overly cautious, but yeah I'll take it.

9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Since you were just looking at the liberal/conservative rankings, have you seen a breakdown on the Republicans who lost? Because my gut tells me they were more likely to be moderate which could explain this change, among others to come.

Oh yeah they certainly were the moderates.  The moderates are always the incumbents that lose - that's the problem.  See here:  

Quote

After the 2018 midterm elections, 20 House Republican incumbents lost their seats to a Democrat. Of those, 10 were in Clinton-won districts, while 9 were incumbents who Republicans had previously said were in competitive, coin-flip races.

Granted, that doesn't necessarily mean those members were more "moderate" based on NOMINATE scores, but it's very likely - and the eye test says they are.  I'm pretty bored so maybe I'll do a breakdown in the next few hours, would be fun to look at.

[lokisnow]

20% of Democrats in the House will be California Democrats. That’s incredible