Aegon as a king

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I agree with most of this except the last paragraph - you cannot successfully rule a country unless you have either local support or at least local acceptance. Her own men will get murdered left and right; only reason why she will be able to keep the throne are the dragons.

 

Even if he manages to do all that - a big if - fact remains that he is massively outnumbered. His only saving grace is the added mobility provided by the fleet. But sacking fortified places is not easy, and if he goes around doing that - Arbor, Sunspear - he will bleed himself dry without Aegon (or anyone else) having to lift a finger. Unless, again, Martin goes for plot convenience instead of realism.

Lannister holdings are all on the mainland. That wealth will not be available for long.

Except they are not. Westerosi infantry may be socially peasants, but descriptions of battles make it clear that they are neither untrained or undisciplined. The only times when they fail is in conditions in which Roman legions or Byzantine armies would have failed as well. Whatever else they may be, these guys are trained professionals. Northern infantry holds against missile barrage and following heavy cavalry charge, and while tactical decision to enter the Blackwater was idiotic, manner in which it was done shows that fleet is also professional. And descriptions of armies - Northen army, Lannister army - show that most infantry are pikemen and longbowmen. Both of these are types of troops which require heavy training and discipline to be effective. In other words, professionals, or at least troops which will be as effective as professionals (such as city militias).

There is no reason to assume that Dany's people will be 'murdered left and right'. While not all Westerosi might join her, a considerable number of people will - and those who don't might stay neutral for the most part, because they don't want to involve themselves in war anymore.

The very idea that Dany is going to inspire much hate and fear is not very likely considering half of Westeros is right now obsessed with personal revenge and stuff. The Riverlands are not suddenly going to forget their own issues with the Freys and Lannisters just because Daenerys Targaryen shows up and wants the Iron Throne. They might not even care anymore who sits the Iron Throne. The same goes for the North.

The Arbor should lose all willingness to fight once the Redwyne fleet is crushed. There isn't going to be much storming involved when 20,000 Ironborn land on the island which cannot expect to get any hope from outside. Not to mention that most of Lord Paxter's sworn swords and men-at-arms might be on the ships which are very soon to be destroyed.

Lannister wealth is in Casterly Rock. Who is going to take it from there? Certainly not Aegon. And you should know that Cersei could easily get unlimited credit in any bank in the world simply by means of being the Lady of Casterly Rock. And that means she hasn't exactly throw literal gold at literal sellswords or freeriders.

Most of the conscripted men in Westeros are not trained warriors. Especially not trained in proper tactics of war. In fact, it doesn't even make sense to imagine that knights are 'trained and bloodied warriors' considering they usually never fought in a war before they end up fighting in one of the rare succession wars. Renly's 'summer knights' were, for the most part, unexperienced in war, and tourneys and stuff may prepare you to ride and use a lance properly, but it doesn't prepare you for the chaos and blood of actual battle. You see this how Brienne struggles with her first kill in AFfC.

There seem to be a class of professional men-at-arms in the castles - men who make up castle garrisons and such, but that's it. There is no class of warrior-peasantry who continually train for war to be able to defend their lands against nonexistent threats - aside from certain regions where the people traditionally needed to fend off attacks. The Bear Islanders, for instance, Vale and Northern regions where wildling raids are common, and then the Marchers where Dornish raids were common in the past (and the Dornishmen in the Red Mountains who often had to fight the Marchers).

And in general - this is a fantasy series. George doesn't give shit about realistic historical development or a properly stratified feudal society or depiction of classes he doesn't care about. He also doesn't care much about depicting military stuff and battles realistic, as the glaring shit he did there show. Stannis won only cavalry when he killed Renly ... but Stannis didn't show up with 10,000+ knights at KL, did he? Arrows shot by wildling bows can fly up two hundred meters and kill people, etc.

George writes battles more realistic than movies depict them, but they are not all that realistic. Nor do they have to be. We can expect some sort of known historical ruses being used - Black Balaq's goldenheart archers playing the role of English longbowmen, say, or the elephants having effects, Stannis using the frozen lake in an ingenious way, etc.

And the Dothraki will be as effective as the plot is going to want them to be. But if Dany gets them all they can only win if they go to Westeros. There hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of them. Even if the knights were to actually crush entire khalasars, Dany could just throw a couple of more at them. Westeros is already pretty spent, and if Dany only shows up when Aegon and Euron and Stannis have bled out the Reach, Dorne, the Vale, and the West and the Riverlands some more, then they won't have the will or the strength for more resistance.

Especially if Dany were to come with a lot of food and provisions and wealth taken from (the elites of) the various cities she crushed on the way. The continuous war in Westeros might leave the Reach and the West and the Stormlands and the Crownlands in the same ruins the Riverlands and the North are right now.

Not to mention we have to consider the whole Others thing. Unlike the shit show people in Westeros will realize - in fact, Jon Snow already realized that in ADwD - that dragons might come in handy in the fight against the Others. Just as fresh troops from abroad will be.

[Morte]

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We can expect Black Balaq and his archers to slay most if not all of the Tyrell knights if they clash, but I expect Aegon to use the elephants in some ingenious way, too. Like with the Dothraki, the average Westeros knight - and most definitely the average peasant - wouldn't have seen much less fought a living elephant. The horses will shy away from the huge beasts as well, etc.

There is a pretty good chance that Aegon will win an Alexander-like victory over the Tyrells, crushing 20,000-30,000 Tyrells (depending how many men Mace is going to station in KL to keep the peace there) with only 5,000-7,000 men.

And with very little looses on his own side, I presume.

I don't know how he will use the elephants, but sure as hell Martin will emulate (fitting or not) one of the battles from the Punic Wars.

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I also expect the West to become fractured. I think the Plumms will use the current power vacuum in the West to declare for Aegon, possibly taking quite a few Westermen with Targaryen sympathies with them. I expect the Lannisters to stay loyal to Cersei until they realize how mad she is (i.e. after they realize that Euron Greyjoy isn't an ally anybody could want) - then they might end up delivering some men to Dany.

I think the Lannisters will start to fracture earlier, well, it depends how Aegon will deal with Darry; but Genna tells us her daughter in law is furious about not getting her fathers seat, so either this part of the family will already go over to Aegon, or, if he leaves Darry as it is, will search for help on Dany's side (being a female wanting the throne etc.).

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But there are rather interesting wildcards. I expect Willas Tyrell to become a major player in the fight against the Others, being a sort of moderator/arbiter between the factions due to the ties he might be able to establish with Bran - I think there is a plot-related reason why Highgarden got three weirwood heart trees in its godswood, meaning he might eventually lean towards Daenerys. The same I think is going to happen with the Hightowers. They will bend the knee to Euron for the time being, but they will learn from Sam and Alleras and the Others that Dany and not Aegon is the promised prince(ss) and that the Others are a real threat. That is going to affect how their coin is going to fall in the end.

The Tyrells will not stay the happy united family we are presented till this point; Loras is chilling on Dragonstone and Willas might really side with Aegon even against his father, we know nothing about him, but him being intelligent and a "cripple".

I think it is no coincidence that Lord Hightower is in closed meeting with the Mad Maid on top of the Hightower. I think they are already playing a different game than the rest of the south.

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Vale is another wildcard, as is the North. Here there are simply to many unknowns. I expect that the Vale is going to declare for Aegon as well, but whether they will remain with would depend on many factors - for instance, if Sansa became one of Aegon's queens and continued to wield great influence over the Vale they might stand with him, if not then they might take a different road.

In the North the question is how long Stannis is going to last, and what's going to happen after his death. Are the people up there going to try to gain Aegon's support against the Others? Or are they going to antagonize/clash with him? If the latter were the case then Dany could also be their natural ally against Aegon - not to mention that she is also going to be a natural ally against the Others.

The Northmen are likely going to be the people who have no issues with Dany's arrival at all. They will welcome her and the help she brings.

The Vale might side with Aegon, or stay neutral till a later point. A wildcard, as you say.

The North will be happy about anybody who comes to their help, and I think we can say the same for Stannis (if he is still alive) when the Wall comes down.

I still think the battle will be at the Trident (as in Dany's dream), what remained alive in the North either hiding behind their castles walls or on the run south. In this scenario they would simply bump into each other.

8 hours ago, Aldarion said:

The Vale is another wildcard, as is the North. Here there are simply to many unknowns. I expect that the Vale is going to declare for Aegon as well, but whether they will remain with would depend on many factors - for instance, if Sansa became one of Aegon's queens and continued to wield great influence over the Vale they might stand with him, if not then they might take a different road.

In the North the question is how long Stannis is going to last, and what's going to happen after his death. Are the people up there going to try to gain Aegon's support against the Others? Or are they going to antagonize/clash with him? If the latter were the case then Dany could also be their natural ally against Aegon - not to mention that she is also going to be a natural ally against the Others.

The Northmen are likely going to be the people who have no issues with Dany's arrival at all. They will welcome her and the help she brings.

Well, that's because of the caricature-problem in Essos... Martin tried to make it better in ADwD, but of course he hasn't fleshed out the whole continent enough to make the people there believable characters in just a few chapters. And of course it's because of his bullshit-slavery (I will not start on the idiocy of having a whole stable and evolved culture base on the production of slaves...).

10 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Technically, war galleys (though not dromonds specifically) and caravels/carracks are the ships of the same epoch. They had ups and downs in their mutual relationship, as I explained in detail here. What Martin gets wrong is the causes of such relationship and also geography. Redwyne fleet at least, being from place facing open ocean, should have not a single galley in its ranks (although longships are not an impossibility). And even Narrow Sea is far to open to allow galleys to be used as primary warships - it is more of a North Sea than Mediterranean, really.

Exactly. Apart from the big elephant in the room which is the seaworthiness of the different ships, it would have been okay if he would have simply used the term "gallery", not throwing dromons in the mix.

By the by... Elissa Farman made her voyage on a carrack... that was 250 fucking years prior to the main series! But they still use dromons 250 years later...

That's what is essentially driving my husband even more nuts than me: the technological stasis and non-development in Martin's world. And while in the real world everybody was happily (trying) copying what worked from other cultures, Westeros is building dromons...

10 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Armour-breaking bow is not a stuff which exists unless it is a Roman ballista. Even magical dragonbone bows are still limited by human muscle power, and these are so rare as to be irrelevant.

But that was one of the thing that happened at Azincourt - the French armoured forces faced the problem of Longbows piercing though plate as they got near the archers.

10 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Except they are not. Westerosi infantry may be socially peasants, but descriptions of battles make it clear that they are neither untrained or undisciplined. The only times when they fail is in conditions in which Roman legions or Byzantine armies would have failed as well. Whatever else they may be, these guys are trained professionals. Northern infantry holds against missile barrage and following heavy cavalry charge, and while tactical decision to enter the Blackwater was idiotic, manner in which it was done shows that fleet is also professional. And descriptions of armies - Northen army, Lannister army - show that most infantry are pikemen and longbowmen. Both of these are types of troops which require heavy training and discipline to be effective. In other words, professionals, or at least troops which will be as effective as professionals (such as city militias).

Except that we don't know that the majority of the soldiers is doing or how they fare in the battle. We get glimpses of man-at-arms (who are professionals), of the cavalry (who are "professional" knights), of hedge knights (who are professionals, because most of them will have to sell their sword for a living), of Tyrion's mountain clans (who are something like professional highwaymen) and in the case of the Blackwater of the forces of KL, who are mostly professionals (the Gold Cloaks, the guards of the Red Keep and the man-at-arms of the Lannisters), as is the fleet of course, because you can't use peasants without training on a ship and both the marine and the pirates are professionals, too. But these are not the numbers counting up to 20 or 50 thousand. That's why the Golden Company is having a walk in the park right now, and will continue to have one even when the Puff fish is coming with his full host. JonCon is so stunned by their sucess, because he has spent too much time in Essos, were you essentially only have professionals or at least semi-professionals in warfare.

What we know is what we are told by Jorah and what we can take from Septon Meribald's speech; that's why I said Westeroi culture is not Renaissance or late Mediaeval Ages, but a "funny" mixture of the whole of Mediaeval Ages; while Essos is more Renaissance (with slavery).

10 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Mongols ...

You are completely right about the problems of the Dothraki if this would be a scenario where the author is trying to rebuild the forces realistically, but it unfortunately isn't (see the ships above...), Martin is thinking about the successes of the Golden Horde, not how or when this happened and how the situation changed over the course of the years.

I think Martin will model most of the coming battles between Essosi and Westeroi forces after famous battles and what-if-scenarios, so we will see:

- Azincourt (GC against the Puff fish)

- maybe Cannae (GC against ???; because Westeros doesn't know this old trick yet) or Trebia (because elephants, we must use the elephants...)

- maybe we will see Zama or Issos

- Battle of Mohi/Sajo or maybe an overblown version of Liegnitz (for the Dothraki); maybe combined with Carrhae

- we have the Battle on the Ice coming right around the corner (Stannis vs Bolton)

- we will see mediaeval knight dying in a Roman spear-wall before they are poked to death by short swords (Unsullied)

etc.pp.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And in general - this is a fantasy series. George doesn't give shit about realistic historical development or a properly stratified feudal society or depiction of classes he doesn't care about. He also doesn't care much about depicting military stuff and battles realistic, as the glaring shit he did there show. Stannis won only cavalry when he killed Renly ... but Stannis didn't show up with 10,000+ knights at KL, did he? Arrows shot by wildling bows can fly up two hundred meters and kill people, etc.

Unfortunately, it's like that.

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Morte said:

And with very little looses on his own side, I presume.

I don't know how he will use the elephants, but sure as hell Martin will emulate (fitting or not) one of the battles from the Punic Wars.

Here the question whether Randyll or Mace are going to command is also going to be a factor, although I doubt that it will be that big a factor. Neither has ever fought elephants before, we can safely assume, and neither would have a magical antidote against well-positioned archers using goldenheart bows.

This battle might very well be based in part on the Battle of the Kingsroad from the Dance - with Aegon's people being the Lads, and Mace/Tarly Borros Baratheon, and a considerable part of the Reach host playing the role of the Kingslanders and Darklyns in the host (i.e. staying out of the fighting or defecting when things start to look bad).

I think a crucial element George will be using in this Targaryen restoration plot thing - either now with Aegon and perhaps with Dany later, too - will be men defecting from one side to the other, going to the point that they end up taking their commander prisoner or even killing him outright. We had a little bit of that with Renly's Ghost, but I think there is more potential there.

This should be used very efficiently - thanks to Varys - when KL falls to Aegon.

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I think the Lannisters will start to fracture earlier, well, it depends how Aegon will deal with Darry; but Genna tells us her daughter in law is furious about not getting her fathers seat, so either this part of the family will already go over to Aegon, or, if he leaves Darry as it is, will search for help on Dany's side (being a female wanting the throne etc.).

Harwyn Plumm will lead Darry to Aegon - never mind what Amerei and her mother think. Chances are not that bad that Harwyn will be the new Lord Darry, as Ami's husband.

I expect Genna's family to have other problems sooner rather than later - their influence within House Lannisters should evaporate soon if Riverrun is retaken by Catelyn and her people, involving the brutal torture and murder of Genna and Emmon. Other family don't seem to be at Riverrun yet, but the loss of Genna Lannister is not going to help the Lannister-Freys.

And, sure, the Lannisters might fracture earlier - there is a chance that Margot Lannister might be able to draw some Westermen to Aegon's cause if she and her husband Titus Peake (who might be the Lord of Starpike) end up declaring for Aegon - since there are quite a few cousins in important positions right now, and Kevan's branch - who is next in line after Cersei and her children - is apparently not exactly politically savvy (with Dorna not even residing at Casterly Rock). But there are far too many unknowns there - it depends whether Daven is going to survive much longer, what his sisters are going to do, how competent that Damion fellow is Cersei made castellan of Casterly Rock, etc.

But I don't expect any of the Lannisters of Casterly Rock to try to stage a coup against Cersei - but lords and ladies deciding to think for themselves, especially while neither Cersei nor Jaime are in the West, and deciding to raise some troops and join who they please is certainly not unlikely.

Could even be that the Westerlings end up in camp Aegon because Jeyne, if she survives, convinces her family and others that they cannot side with the people who arranged the murder of her husband.

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The Tyrells will not stay the happy united family we are presented till this point; Loras is chilling on Dragonstone and Willas might really side with Aegon even against his father, we know nothing about him, but him being intelligent and a "cripple".

I was speculating more about the more distant future with Willas. That the Tyrells are going to lean towards Aegon in the near future is not unlikely, but there are far too many unknowns there with us not knowing if/when Mace is going to die, or what's going to happen to Margaery.

Garlan seems to be occupied with the Shields for the time being, so we are not going to see a big change on that front.

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I think it is no coincidence that Lord Hightower is in closed meeting with the Mad Maid on top of the Hightower. I think they are already playing a different game than the rest of the south.

That might be the case, although I think they will eventually get involved with Sam to some degree, although we might first meet them in person in an Aeron chapter where he is going to be presented to them as a witness of Euron's deeds and plans should he survive the coming battle.

But Marwyn certainly could have sent word about what he learned to Lord Leyton, causing him and the Mad Maid to summon Samwell Tarly to them. Even more so since Lady Rhea Florent Hightower is actually Samwell Tarly's maternal aunt and Alekyne Florent his maternal uncle. Sam actually has the connections to get an audience in the Hightower in no time - and if the author were to will it so, Sam could actually be pretty close to Aunty Rhea for some reason.

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The Vale might side with Aegon, or stay neutral till a later point. A wildcard, as you say.

Chances that they will make a move in the Aegon department soon are hinted at by Haldon specifically pointing the Arryns out as a neutral party (i.e. one they would like to approach with an offer as soon as possible) as well as the fact that Sansa would greatly profit from the Vale declaring for an anti-Lannister pretender. It would allow her to become herself again without fear that the Tommen regime demand her head.

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Except that we don't know that the majority of the soldiers is doing or how they fare in the battle. We get glimpses of man-at-arms (who are professionals), of the cavalry (who are "professional" knights), of hedge knights (who are professionals, because most of them will have to sell their sword for a living), of Tyrion's mountain clans (who are something like professional highwaymen) and in the case of the Blackwater of the forces of KL, who are mostly professionals (the Gold Cloaks, the guards of the Red Keep and the man-at-arms of the Lannisters), as is the fleet of course, because you can't use peasants without training on a ship and both the marine and the pirates are professionals, too. But these are not the numbers counting up to 20 or 50 thousand. That's why the Golden Company is having a walk in the park right now, and will continue to have one even when the Puff fish is coming with his full host. JonCon is so stunned by their sucess, because he has spent too much time in Essos, were you essentially only have professionals or at least semi-professionals in warfare.

Yeah, as things stand we actually have to view the free companies of Essos as better warriors than the knights of Westeros because they war and fight continuously, whereas the knights and lords of Westeros and their men-at-arms never fought a proper war of conquest since the Conquest of Dorne - even the War of the Ninepenny Kings was just a preemptive attack on a Blackfyre pretender specifically, the Iron Throne didn't fight for the control of territory there. The professional warriors of Westeros might have considerable experience with 'medieval law enforcement work', i.e. hunting down outlaws and robber knights, and deal with minor incursions and uprisings and stuff, but even the occasional big civil or succession war isn't the same as fighting a war for the conquest and control of territory. Ideally, you just capture the head rebel/pretender, and then everything goes back to normal. Not to mention that you have other means to end a rebellion - by making concessions, or bribing people who once were your own, etc.

It is pretty ridiculous when Randyll Tarly is called 'the best soldier in the Realm' when he fought in exactly one war that we know of - and sort of won one battle there. Stannis is an experienced commander because he withstood a siege and won one sea battle (although that one might have been pretty tough). Those are not the biographies of actually professional soldiers/generals, especially not compared to men serving with the Golden Company.

Exceptions would be, as I said, men from regions where there is a strong martial culture out of tradition or necessity, i.e. the northern North, Bear Island, (parts of) the Vale, and the Dornish Marches and the Red Mountains. And of the course the Iron Islands. That's where people, to a point, really live to fight. But in other places people only fight when they have to. You still would have a considerable number of professionally trained lords and knights and men-at-arms, but compared to the overall population of the region they would be but a tiny fraction.

With the Dothraki that would be totally different. Pretty much any male Dothraki who isn't a slave or a eunuch or an old guy or a child would be a skilled rider and warrior, and perhaps some of their women and children and old people, too.

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What we know is what we are told by Jorah and what we can take from Septon Meribald's speech; that's why I said Westeroi culture is not Renaissance or late Mediaeval Ages, but a "funny" mixture of the whole of Mediaeval Ages; while Essos is more Renaissance (with slavery).

Lys is very much based on the renaissance city states of Italy, as are the free companies in general (George directly took them from Costain's history of the Plantagenets). That goes right down to the office of gonfaloniere. And of course Braavos is a bigger version of Venice, with the Sea Lord being pretty much the Doge, etc.

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You are completely right about the problems of the Dothraki if this would be a scenario where the author is trying to rebuild the forces realistically, but it unfortunately isn't (see the ships above...), Martin is thinking about the successes of the Golden Horde, not how or when this happened and how the situation changed over the course of the years.

Yeah, and I think we can expect some slight tweaking/retconning being done with the Dothraki if George felt he had them too lightly armored in AGoT. They could have elaborate winter garments stored in Vaes Dothrak which could also serve as light armor - or have them with them in the khalasars only to take them out when it gets cold. They could adapt and take armor from the cities they are going to sack before getting to Westeros, etc.

The whole point of the Dothraki as a people serving Daenerys is not to die like flies once they face a couple of knights in battle but to crush said knights. If George wanted Dany to be dependent on Westerosi lords and knights upon her arrival he could have just have her go to Westeros without the Dothraki - and have her win the loyalty and allegiance of a considerable number of lords and knights by virtue of being a Targaryen pretender. Which is still likely going to happen, but it won't be that she is going to be completely dependent on such support.

[Morte]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think a crucial element George will be using in this Targaryen restoration plot thing - either now with Aegon and perhaps with Dany later, too - will be men defecting from one side to the other, going to the point that they end up taking their commander prisoner or even killing him outright. We had a little bit of that with Renly's Ghost, but I think there is more potential there.

Yes, this will happen; maybe even people switching sides multiple times (first to Aegon, then to Dany and/or the other way around).

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Harwyn Plumm will lead Darry to Aegon - never mind what Amerei and her mother think. Chances are not that bad that Harwyn will be the new Lord Darry, as Ami's husband.

That will surely happen. Which would make Jeyne Lannister-Darry(Cleo's widow) a potential ally for Dany.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But there are far too many unknowns there - it depends whether Daven is going to survive much longer, what his sisters are going to do, how competent that Damion fellow is Cersei made castellan of Casterly Rock, etc.

But I don't expect any of the Lannisters of Casterly Rock to try to stage a coup against Cersei - but lords and ladies deciding to think for themselves, especially while neither Cersei nor Jaime are in the West, and deciding to raise some troops and join who they please is certainly not unlikely.

Well, Daven is surely a factor, but I don't even know what he himself would think about the whole situation. It might be he will die in a battle against Aegon. The Lannisters will not side with any Targ that early, but yes - the lords and ladies of the West might "think for themselves", either playing "late Lord Frey" when the banners are called against Aegon, or outright switching to him.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I expect Genna's family to have other problems sooner rather than later - their influence within House Lannisters should evaporate soon if Riverrun is retaken by Catelyn and her people, involving the brutal torture and murder of Genna and Emmon.

I see this coming, too.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I was speculating more about the more distant future with Willas. That the Tyrells are going to lean towards Aegon in the near future is not unlikely, but there are far too many unknowns there with us not knowing if/when Mace is going to die, or what's going to happen to Margaery.

Garlan seems to be occupied with the Shields for the time being, so we are not going to see a big change on that front.

Well, Garlan could also die there, leaving Mace with only Willas (and a presumed seriously injured Loras, who is Schrödinger's cat at this moment). Depending on what happens to Margaery it might be a reason for Mace to switch to Aegon (thining about the knight with the weathervane, that would be the time House Tyrell should add it to their sigil, too).

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But Marwyn certainly could have sent word about what he learned to Lord Leyton, causing him and the Mad Maid to summon Samwell Tarly to them.

He could. While he was leaving in a hurry, and I'm quite sure that neither the books nor Gilly, nor - especially - Maester Aemon will leave the ship and will accompany Marwyn to Dany, he could have sent a short message to the Hightower, as he knows very well, that Sam and the whole group is in danger in the Citadel (he tells them so).

Or Sam could try to contact his distant relatives himself, when he finds something in the Citadel, or the situation gets dire.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is pretty ridiculous when Randyll Tarly is called 'the best soldier in the Realm' when he fought in exactly one war that we know of - and sort of won one battle there. Stannis is an experienced commander because he withstood a siege and won one sea battle (although that one might have been pretty tough). Those are not the biographies of actually professional soldiers/generals, especially not compared to men serving with the Golden Company.

Exactly. That's why we will see multiple massacres on the battlefield.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, and I think we can expect some slight tweaking/retconning being done with the Dothraki if George felt he had them too lightly armored in AGoT. They could have elaborate winter garments stored in Vaes Dothrak which could also serve as light armor - or have them with them in the khalasars only to take them out when it gets cold. They could adapt and take armor from the cities they are going to sack before getting to Westeros, etc.

Well, he will have too, also with the Unsullied and her mercenaries, because Winter is no longer coming, it has started. And I don't see them fighting half naked in snow and Arctic temperatures. Dany will also have to bring provisions, as she will arrive much later then Aegon did and by that time there will be no food supplies to get from the land (another unrealistic element, because of course feeding such a big army would be just as impossible as getting them all over the Narrow Sea in reality; I think it will be dried horse mead they will feed upon).

[Aldarion]

 

23 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Say there was another silver-haired purple-eyed boy claiming he was the real Aegon, and that a witch had plucked him out of the timestream. His story passes no one's bullshit detector, but he somehow manages to drive Cersei out of KL and now sits the IT. The lords that were initially like "lol gtfo" now say "welp, I guess anyone who challenges his credibility now must just be trying to overthrow him, even though I also found it highly suspect before". That's what you're arguing rn.

 That is how it often worked historically. Possession is half the mastery - well, more like 90%.

23 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

This is what you JUST said about Aegon: " George Martin is, among other things, deconstructing the trope that "rightful king = good king". To me, said deconstruction is not complete unless we get a good king who is not a rightful king". But now he isn't a good king??

Read again. I was replying to your last sentence: "Aegon is not what he is touted to be". That is something I agree with, but it doesn't mean he won't be a good king. The only person I can think of on short notice that would be definitely better option than Aegon is ser Davos, and he would never accept being a king.

In other words, he will not be "perfect prince" which Varys is describing him as, but he should not be bad ruler either.

23 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

How long will it take to overthrow Cersei and deal with Euron and Stannis? Unless you think Dany is going to dawdle in Essoss for a few more years, Aegon will likely never advance past being at war. We can probably guess what kind of a ruler he'd be based on his personality, though.

Not necessarily. Matthias Corvinus had very problematic personality, yet he ended up being one of best kings in Hungarian and Croatian history. Charles XII of Sweden started off as a spoiled brat who killed his pet bear by getting him so drunk on wine that bear fell out of the window, yet he turned Sweden from a falling-apart state into a military superpower (until his death, anyway). And if he hadn't invaded Russia, Sweden might have stayed that way.  List of Byzantine rulers with difficult or otherwise unenviable personalities is as long as my arm, yet far fewer were actually outright incompetent.

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason to assume that Dany's people will be 'murdered left and right'. While not all Westerosi might join her, a considerable number of people will - and those who don't might stay neutral for the most part, because they don't want to involve themselves in war anymore.

The very idea that Dany is going to inspire much hate and fear is not very likely considering half of Westeros is right now obsessed with personal revenge and stuff. The Riverlands are not suddenly going to forget their own issues with the Freys and Lannisters just because Daenerys Targaryen shows up and wants the Iron Throne. They might not even care anymore who sits the Iron Throne. The same goes for the North.

You wrote that: "Dany doesn't have to rely on the lords and knights of Westeros. She will have her own men who will see her not as their mortal king but worship her as their living god/savior. They are not going to betray her nor abandon her."

Keep in mind that she will be bringing back war to a continent which just got hope of peace back. Even people who would normally be her allies will be reluctant to join her. So I definitely can see many deciding to sit it out, but out of those who do not, very few will join Daenerys.

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Arbor should lose all willingness to fight once the Redwyne fleet is crushed. There isn't going to be much storming involved when 20,000 Ironborn land on the island which cannot expect to get any hope from outside. Not to mention that most of Lord Paxter's sworn swords and men-at-arms might be on the ships which are very soon to be destroyed.

 

Arbor IIRC is not exactly small. Unless it is so small as to not be self-sufficient, it will have to be taken by force.

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Most of the conscripted men in Westeros are not trained warriors. Especially not trained in proper tactics of war. In fact, it doesn't even make sense to imagine that knights are 'trained and bloodied warriors' considering they usually never fought in a war before they end up fighting in one of the rare succession wars. Renly's 'summer knights' were, for the most part, unexperienced in war, and tourneys and stuff may prepare you to ride and use a lance properly, but it doesn't prepare you for the chaos and blood of actual battle. You see this how Brienne struggles with her first kill in AFfC.

 

Except we see plenty of evidence that they in fact are trained soldiers. Ser Stafford Lannister did not just raise a bunch of peasants, gave them spears and threw them forth to die. He spent time training them. Behaviour of Northern infantry at Battle of Green Fork - and for that matter, Tywin's deployment - show that they are definitely well-trained and disciplined. Tywin would have never placed his infantry in the center if they had been an untrained rabble - that is just inviting disaster; if your center is gone, you are done for. Yet he had infantry center and cavalry wings, much like Roman simplex acies (I hope I got the name right) or Byzantine 6th century formations. Typical cavalry-dominant feudal army you are describing would have deployed cavalry in the front and infantry in the rear, with aim to obliterate the enemy with a cavalry charge and letting infantry mop up the rest - this was partly cultural, but partly just common sense: if infantry is unreliable, you don't deploy them in the main battle line, for the reasons already noted. Northern infantry likewise shows tactics and discipline which only professional soldiers can display.

I agree that Westerosi infantry are unlikely to be on the level of Swiss pikemen or 10th century Byzantine skoutatoi, but they are not likely to be much worse either. Definitely not peasant rabble - and even peasant rabble could be surprisingly effective. For the example, there is siege of Belgrade 1456. - Capistrano's crusaders managed to disable Ottoman artillery. It should be noted however that this was no open-field engagement: rather, Turks lost the fight inside the city itself, retreated, and crusaders pursued them back to Ottoman own camp, where they disabled the artillery before Hunyadi called them back so they don't fall victim to Ottoman counterattack. Closest equivalent to Westerosi infantry would likely be Scottish schiltrons.

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And in general - this is a fantasy series. George doesn't give shit about realistic historical development or a properly stratified feudal society or depiction of classes he doesn't care about. He also doesn't care much about depicting military stuff and battles realistic, as the glaring shit he did there show. Stannis won only cavalry when he killed Renly ... but Stannis didn't show up with 10,000+ knights at KL, did he? Arrows shot by wildling bows can fly up two hundred meters and kill people, etc.

George writes battles more realistic than movies depict them, but they are not all that realistic. Nor do they have to be. We can expect some sort of known historical ruses being used - Black Balaq's goldenheart archers playing the role of English longbowmen, say, or the elephants having effects, Stannis using the frozen lake in an ingenious way, etc.

Problem is, this is political fantasy series - and people who read it likely read it for that (which is true even for myself, to an extent, even if I always was more interested in military matters). Lord of the RIngs managed to describe completely realistic political and military organization (where Gondor's Byzantine and Rohan's Anglo-Saxon system contrasts Mordor's essentially modern setup) despite the series being, essentially, about war against Satan. It helped that Tolkien was a scholar of Anglo-Saxon mythology and also served in World War I., and he also didn't go into detail about it. But point is, Martin is writing first and foremost about politics and warfare - therefore, it is only expected he should try and make it coherent and logical, whereas his mythology and magic don't have to make sense at all. Yet he got it reverse - you can actually make scientific theories about the White Walkers, but trying to make sense of Westeros?

And you cannot say that Martin "doesn't care" about realistic historical development or stratified feudal society, when he said this:

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/george-r-r-martin-the-rolling-stone-interview-242487/

"Ruling is hard. This was maybe my answer to Tolkien, whom, as much as I admire him, I do quibble with. Lord of the Rings had a very medieval philosophy: that if the king was a good man, the land would prosper. We look at real history and it’s not that simple. Tolkien can say that Aragorn became king and reigned for a hundred years, and he was wise and good. But Tolkien doesn’t ask the question: What was Aragorn’s tax policy? Did he maintain a standing army? What did he do in times of flood and famine? And what about all these orcs? By the end of the war, Sauron is gone but all of the orcs aren’t gone – they’re in the mountains. Did Aragorn pursue a policy of systematic genocide and kill them? Even the little baby orcs, in their little orc cradles?"

 

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And the Dothraki will be as effective as the plot is going to want them to be. But if Dany gets them all they can only win if they go to Westeros. There hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of them. Even if the knights were to actually crush entire khalasars, Dany could just throw a couple of more at them. Westeros is already pretty spent, and if Dany only shows up when Aegon and Euron and Stannis have bled out the Reach, Dorne, the Vale, and the West and the Riverlands some more, then they won't have the will or the strength for more resistance.

Especially if Dany were to come with a lot of food and provisions and wealth taken from (the elites of) the various cities she crushed on the way. The continuous war in Westeros might leave the Reach and the West and the Stormlands and the Crownlands in the same ruins the Riverlands and the North are right now.

And bolded is what I have a problem with. As for the rest, what you are describing is logistical nightmare if not impossibility: I have already explained why earlier.

Daenerys won't come with food, if she is bringing a large army with her, she will need the food for them. If Westeros doesn't have enough trade to supply its needs already, she won't be able to change a thing. If Westeros already has enough trade to supply its needs, she won't be able to - or need to - change a thing. Except for her dragons serving as weapons against the Others, she won't be able to make things better in Westeros at all. And if she loots all the gold from the cities she crushed on the way, who will be willing to trade with her once Winter comes?

20 hours ago, Morte said:

And the Dothraki will be as effective as the plot is going to want them to be. But if Dany gets them all they can only win if they go to Westeros. There hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of them. Even if the knights were to actually crush entire khalasars, Dany could just throw a couple of more at them. Westeros is already pretty spent, and if Dany only shows up when Aegon and Euron and Stannis have bled out the Reach, Dorne, the Vale, and the West and the Riverlands some more, then they won't have the will or the strength for more resistance.

Especially if Dany were to come with a lot of food and provisions and wealth taken from (the elites of) the various cities she crushed on the way. The continuous war in Westeros might leave the Reach and the West and the Stormlands and the Crownlands in the same ruins the Riverlands and the North are right now.

Yeah, I think that in Essos, he sacrificed plausability for sake of a) making a political statement and/or b) Daenerys' character development.

20 hours ago, Morte said:

Exactly. Apart from the big elephant in the room which is the seaworthiness of the different ships, it would have been okay if he would have simply used the term "gallery", not throwing dromons in the mix.

By the by... Elissa Farman made her voyage on a carrack... that was 250 fucking years prior to the main series! But they still use dromons 250 years later...

That's what is essentially driving my husband even more nuts than me: the technological stasis and non-development in Martin's world. And while in the real world everybody was happily (trying) copying what worked from other cultures, Westeros is building dromons...

I do not have much problem with technological stasis per se - after all, it happened to a large number of real-world societies for various reasons. What I do have a problem with is portrayal of the same. You have 10th century Vikings fighting against 15th century pikemen and men-at-arms. In naval matters, galley is still a dominant warship, despite a) geography, b) technology and c) society working against in. Geographically, galleys would be useless anywhere outside the Narrow Sea, and even that is iffy. Technologically, ramming only worked because rowed warships were flimsy, and construction of ancient triremes was also not very solid - they were built hull-first, and planks were connected with wooden pins and ropes. When ships started using ribs-first, iron-nails construction, it was game over for ramming; from late Antiquity onwards, boarding - and Greek fire - was the main feature of naval combat, not ramming. So if they can produce carracks, they should be using carracks for combat. Societally, galleys require large numbers of trained rowers - basically, a standing army or, at least, Byzantine thematic army. Not something feudal society can easily produce (though it is not impossible).

20 hours ago, Morte said:

Exactly. Apart from the big elephant in the room which is the seaworthiness of the different ships, it would have been okay if he would have simply used the term "gallery", not throwing dromons in the mix.

By the by... Elissa Farman made her voyage on a carrack... that was 250 fucking years prior to the main series! But they still use dromons 250 years later...

That's what is essentially driving my husband even more nuts than me: the technological stasis and non-development in Martin's world. And while in the real world everybody was happily (trying) copying what worked from other cultures, Westeros is building dromons...

Wrong. Longbows never pierced plate. What happened was that they a) prevented unarmoured or lightly-armoured troops from supporting French men-at-arms, and b) forced said men-at-arms to keep their visors down, thus causing them to overheat while marching through mud. But despite English expending hundreds of thousands of arrows in battle, French men-at-arms reached English lines and engaged English men-at-arms in hand-to-hand combat. They were winning, too, until English archers charged them in the flanks with melee weapons.

Overall, French at Agincourt were beaten in hand-to-hand combat. Archery helped shape battlefield, but it had no appreciable impact in terms of direct casualties.

20 hours ago, Morte said:

Except that we don't know that the majority of the soldiers is doing or how they fare in the battle. We get glimpses of man-at-arms (who are professionals), of the cavalry (who are "professional" knights), of hedge knights (who are professionals, because most of them will have to sell their sword for a living), of Tyrion's mountain clans (who are something like professional highwaymen) and in the case of the Blackwater of the forces of KL, who are mostly professionals (the Gold Cloaks, the guards of the Red Keep and the man-at-arms of the Lannisters), as is the fleet of course, because you can't use peasants without training on a ship and both the marine and the pirates are professionals, too. But these are not the numbers counting up to 20 or 50 thousand. That's why the Golden Company is having a walk in the park right now, and will continue to have one even when the Puff fish is coming with his full host. JonCon is so stunned by their sucess, because he has spent too much time in Essos, were you essentially only have professionals or at least semi-professionals in warfare.

What we know is what we are told by Jorah and what we can take from Septon Meribald's speech; that's why I said Westeroi culture is not Renaissance or late Mediaeval Ages, but a "funny" mixture of the whole of Mediaeval Ages; while Essos is more Renaissance (with slavery).

We know that Westeros routinely fields armies in tens of thousands. That is something impossible with typical Medieval feudal military organization. Only Byzantine armies (professional, not feudal), Merovingian armies (professional - feudalism only developed after Charles Martel's time) and 15th century armies (professional but still limited by the context of feudal society) could manage such mobilizations. In other words, they already have professional clerks, logistics masters etc. Why waste such expensive logistical apparatus on a worthless rabble? Also, we actually see them in battle, and what we see indicates well-trained and disciplined troops, for the most part. You cannot field armies of pikemen - like Starks and Lannisters both did - and expect them to be effective unless they are well-trained and disciplined.

Keep in mind, professional =/= standing. I classify Byzantine thematic soldiers as professionals because warfare was their job; but they were not a standing army, and often had a job other than warfare during peacetime. Something like US National Guard.

Jorah is an idiot - honestly, I will have to do a blog post on how stupid that guy actually is, someday. As for Septon Meribald, I will admit I do not really remember the guy...

20 hours ago, Morte said:

You are completely right about the problems of the Dothraki if this would be a scenario where the author is trying to rebuild the forces realistically, but it unfortunately isn't (see the ships above...), Martin is thinking about the successes of the Golden Horde, not how or when this happened and how the situation changed over the course of the years.

I think Martin will model most of the coming battles between Essosi and Westeroi forces after famous battles and what-if-scenarios, so we will see:

- Azincourt (GC against the Puff fish)

- maybe Cannae (GC against ???; because Westeros doesn't know this old trick yet) or Trebia (because elephants, we must use the elephants...)

- maybe we will see Zama or Issos

- Battle of Mohi/Sajo or maybe an overblown version of Liegnitz (for the Dothraki); maybe combined with Carrhae

- we have the Battle on the Ice coming right around the corner (Stannis vs Bolton)

- we will see mediaeval knight dying in a Roman spear-wall before they are poked to death by short swords (Unsullied)

etc.pp.

And that is my problem with Martin. Also where any claims about ASoIaF's realism fall apart. ASoIaF is many things - complex, interesting, entertaining, immersive - but realistic it is not.

I do agree that he will model battles on historical engagements. That being said, I disagree about GC vs Puff Fish being Agincourt - we already had that battle in backstory. More importantly, Golden Company's composition prevents an exact replay of Agincourt: too many elephants, too many pikemen, too few archers. Personally, I believe it will play out as combination of Agincourt and Trebia. I have explained why in one of my old threads:

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/155370-tactical-overview-golden-company/

And fact is that Golden Company is much closer in composition to Hannibal's army than to that of Henry V.

Dothraki lack heavy cavalry required for Liegnitz, or engineering capabilities required for Mohi. Though replaying latter is at least theoretically possible. However, Westerosi field longbowmen and crossbowmen, which should be able to counter Dothraki harrassing tactics relatively easily.

Unsullied do not have spears to counter Westerosi knights. Pikemen work because pikes are longer than lances. Unsullied spears will be outreached by Westerosi lances. I would not be surprised by Westerosi knights penetrating Unsullied shield walls.

[Morte]

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Except we see plenty of evidence that they in fact are trained soldiers. Ser Stafford Lannister did not just raise a bunch of peasants, gave them spears and threw them forth to die. He spent time training them. Behaviour of Northern infantry at Battle of Green Fork - and for that matter, Tywin's deployment - show that they are definitely well-trained and disciplined. Tywin would have never placed his infantry in the center if they had been an untrained rabble - that is just inviting disaster; if your center is gone, you are done for. Yet he had infantry center and cavalry wings, much like Roman simplex acies (I hope I got the name right) or Byzantine 6th century formations. Typical cavalry-dominant feudal army you are describing would have deployed cavalry in the front and infantry in the rear, with aim to obliterate the enemy with a cavalry charge and letting infantry mop up the rest - this was partly cultural, but partly just common sense: if infantry is unreliable, you don't deploy them in the main battle line, for the reasons already noted. Northern infantry likewise shows tactics and discipline which only professional soldiers can display.

I think this comes from emulating battles without knowing what is needed for a specific strategy. Martin wants Tywin to be a great general, so he lets him use tactics of great generals, no matter if it fits with the setting or the other information we get.

It's not realistic, nor does it give us information on Westerosi military, unfortunately.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I do not have much problem with technological stasis per se - after all, it happened to a large number of real-world societies for various reasons. What I do have a problem with is portrayal of the same. You have 10th century Vikings fighting against 15th century pikemen and men-at-arms. In naval matters, galley is still a dominant warship, despite a) geography, b) technology and c) society working against in. Geographically, galleys would be useless anywhere outside the Narrow Sea, and even that is iffy. Technologically, ramming only worked because rowed warships were flimsy, and construction of ancient triremes was also not very solid - they were built hull-first, and planks were connected with wooden pins and ropes. When ships started using ribs-first, iron-nails construction, it was game over for ramming; from late Antiquity onwards, boarding - and Greek fire - was the main feature of naval combat, not ramming. So if they can produce carracks, they should be using carracks for combat. Societally, galleys require large numbers of trained rowers - basically, a standing army or, at least, Byzantine thematic army. Not something feudal society can easily produce (though it is not impossible).

Exactly.

And still we will - most likely - see the 10th century Vikings fleet win or nearly win a battle against the Redwynes, who should have a fleet of carracks, and we will see dromons ramming carracks and having a inpact, and so on - it's not about realism, it's about plot.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

As for Septon Meribald, I will admit I do not really remember the guy...

You should look it up (AFfC, Brienne chapter), because in his "Broken men speech" we get an insight on how the Westerosi army is constituted, and that the men are actually just that - peasants. The numbers? Well, they seem to be real in Westeros, they were often exaggerated in the MA.

But it's not about realism, it's about effects, unfortunately.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And that is my problem with Martin. Also where any claims about ASoIaF's realism fall apart. ASoIaF is many things - complex, interesting, entertaining, immersive - but realistic it is not.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Personally, I believe it will play out as combination of Agincourt and Trebia. I have explained why in one of my old threads:

Good input!

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Dothraki lack heavy cavalry required for Liegnitz, or engineering capabilities required for Mohi. Though replaying latter is at least theoretically possible. However, Westerosi field longbowmen and crossbowmen, which should be able to counter Dothraki harrassing tactics relatively easily.

If it were about realism. But as stated above: Martin will want to simulate Mohi or Liegnitz, so we will get one of them... If Martin must, he will retcon the Dothraki, like @Lord Varys said. And it might drive you nuts, like the political and social structures of Westeros, the idiotic lords long dead by the hand of their own people in real history (all of them!) and the bogus-slavery drive me nuts, but we have to live with that - at least we have fun knowing who wins which battle beforehand the moment we have the historical parties neatly recognized in their mirrors.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Unsullied do not have spears to counter Westerosi knights. Pikemen work because pikes are longer than lances. Unsullied spears will be outreached by Westerosi lances. I would not be surprised by Westerosi knights penetrating Unsullied shield walls.

Well, they do have the three spears of the Roman Legions, two pila and one hasta, the latter is actually a heavy lance used for shield walls (I think Martin will go with the length of 4-7m, not the short one with just 2,5m), and did make their stand against many Dothraki and mercenary companies though Essos' history, so I think Martin wants to see this.

Of course, the right answer to the famous and well liked question "Could a Mediaeval army win against Roman Legions?" is "What century Mediaeval army, what century Roman Legion, how many of them and are they allowed to bring Auxilia?" shortly followed by "And how many time and resources do you give the engineers?". But I don't think Martin will do us that favour.

[Aldarion]

46 minutes ago, Morte said:

I think this comes from emulating battles without knowing what is needed for a specific strategy. Martin wants Tywin to be a great general, so he lets him use tactics of great generals, no matter if it fits with the setting or the other information we get.

It's not realistic, nor does it give us information on Westerosi military, unfortunately.

It is true that Martin does not understand military very well and thus gives contradictory information. But as saying goes: if it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Behaviour of Westerosi armies fits professional forces - tactically, strategically and logistically. Thus from military analysis, they are professional forces. Further, the entire talk of "banners" fits banderial system, which was utilized in Hungary. In it, each lord trains, equips and fields his own (essentially professional) army ("banderium, banner"), and is expected to appear with it when king summons him. What is notable is that political consequences of banderial system also fit what is happening in Westeros. More here.

55 minutes ago, Morte said:

Exactly.

And still we will - most likely - see the 10th century Vikings fleet win or nearly win a battle against the Redwynes, who should have a fleet of carracks, and we will see dromons ramming carracks and having a inpact, and so on - it's not about realism, it's about plot.

Agreed. What is interesting is that there are ways in which oared warships can achieve advantage over sailing ships - specifically, by cutting ropes holding sails of sailing ships (as was done by Romans against British navy during invasion of Britain - see here and here). Hopefully Martin will implement something like that - but even then Ironborn should still have hard time at best (and more likely, be completely incapable of) taking Redwyne carracks. Carrack's size and deck height are simply too massive advantages.

59 minutes ago, Morte said:

You should look it up (AFfC, Brienne chapter), because in his "Broken men speech" we get an insight on how the Westerosi army is constituted, and that the men are actually just that - peasants. The numbers? Well, they seem to be real in Westeros, they were often exaggerated in the MA.

But it's not about realism, it's about effects, unfortunately.

I found it.

Thing is, his speech goes against everything we actually see: "poorly shod and poorly clad" - we see pikemen and archers in mail and brigandine. "No better arms than a sickle or a sharpened hoe" - we see pikes, pollaxes, etc. While Tywin did employ rabble the likes of which Maribald describes, he used them as a bait, expected to break. And Maribald also is making a political point there, so his honesty can also be called into question. Humans, after all, are liars by nature - by no fault of their own, as human brain unconsciously selects information which agrees with what we already know. That is just how memory works.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

If it were about realism. But as stated above: Martin will want to simulate Mohi or Liegnitz, so we will get one of them... If Martin must, he will retcon the Dothraki, like @Lord Varys said. And it might drive you nuts, like the political and social structures of Westeros, the idiotic lords long dead by the hand of their own people in real history (all of them!) and the bogus-slavery drive me nuts, but we have to live with that - at least we have fun knowing who wins which battle beforehand the moment we have the historical parties neatly recognized in their mirrors.

It probably will drive me nuts. What he wrote so far does a good enough job of it already. Half of my enjoyment in reading ASoIaF is looking for all mistakes and illogicalities in what Martin wrote. But it also means that I read rather slowly, so I forgot a lot.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

Well, they do have the three spears of the Roman Legions, two pila and one hasta, the latter is actually a heavy lance used for shield walls (I think Martin will go with the length of 4-7m, not the short one with just 2,5m), and did make their stand against many Dothraki and mercenary companies though Essos' history, so I think Martin wants to see this.

Of course, the right answer to the famous and well liked question "Could a Mediaeval army win against Roman Legions?" is "What century Mediaeval army, what century Roman Legion, how many of them and are they allowed to bring Auxilia?" shortly followed by "And how many time and resources do you give the engineers?". But I don't think Martin will do us that favour.

Actually, very fact that Unsullied have three spears means that they cannot have pikes. Roman triarii wielded pike-esque hasta, but they had hasta and that was that as far as spears go. Ones with multiple spears were hastati and principes, but they had no pikes: theirs were throwing spears. And they had only two of each. If Unsullied have three spears each, then their spears are likely more like those of leves - who used very light javelins and were meant for skirmishing. Maybe they could have two javelins and one stabbing spear, but even then that spear would be more like Greek dory, which was a stabbing one-handed spear two to three meters long (in fact, hasta too was only two meters long).

[Morte]

36 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

What is interesting is that there are ways in which oared warships can achieve advantage over sailing ships - specifically, by cutting ropes holding sails of sailing ships (as was done by Romans against British navy during invasion of Britain - see here and here). Hopefully Martin will implement something like that - but even then Ironborn should still have hard time at best (and more likely, be completely incapable of) taking Redwyne carracks. Carrack's size and deck height are simply too massive advantages.

Should. But it is build up toward a Longboat victory. However this should work.

(Just as he send all the Longboats to Dany, so she has enough ships to come to Westeros... The problem is: Longboats aren't exactly the kind of ship you could transport a lot of people with provisions, horses and material anywhere. But - it's what we will see.

41 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Thing is, his speech goes against everything we actually see: "poorly shod and poorly clad" - we see pikemen and archers in mail and brigandine. "No better arms than a sickle or a sharpened hoe" - we see pikes, pollaxes, etc. While Tywin did employ rabble the likes of which Maribald describes, he used them as a bait, expected to break. And Maribald also is making a political point there, so his honesty can also be called into question. Humans, after all, are liars by nature - by no fault of their own, as human brain unconsciously selects information which agrees with what we already know. That is just how memory works.

Yes, but I think Martin does work with Maribald's picture in mind, he just isn't consistent, or maybe he simply doesn't care than trying to make a battle work. But honestly - semi-professional armies also don't work in Westeros. They aren't paid, the land as such is much too poor (count the cities... *facepalm* That continent is as big as South America, and it has what? five cities?), we have no schooling system at all in place, etc.pp.

44 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

It probably will drive me nuts. What he wrote so far does a good enough job of it already. Half of my enjoyment in reading ASoIaF is looking for all mistakes and illogicalities in what Martin wrote.

We are all in the same boat.

(Semi-)seriously: I think it will get worse now, with more battles coming.

45 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Actually, very fact that Unsullied have three spears means that they cannot have pikes. Roman triarii wielded pike-esque hasta, but they had hasta and that was that as far as spears go. Ones with multiple spears were hastati and principes, but they had no pikes: theirs were throwing spears. And they had only two of each. If Unsullied have three spears each, then their spears are likely more like those of leves - who used very light javelins and were meant for skirmishing. Maybe they could have two javelins and one stabbing spear, but even then that spear would be more like Greek dory, which was a stabbing one-handed spear two to three meters long (in fact, hasta too was only two meters long).

I think we have a slight misunderstanding here, because we are talking about different centuries of Roman Military. Hastati, triarii and principes didn't exist as such (termini survived longer) after the invention of the muli mariani. After the reform they essentially all had two pila, one hasta, one sword (gladius, later spatha), dagger (pugio), one shield and armour (lorica hamata and segmentata).

The original hasta (mind you, hasta also means spear/lance without specifics, and is also used that way, too) was up to four meters long, depending on what it was used for (not as long as the Hellenistic sarissa sure, that was the one with up to seven meter), it was later shorten down to around 2-2,5 meter, but while it was out of fashion for some time, it became standard for all legionnaires again during the Principate, with the longer contus (4-4,5m) being used by the cavalry (the contarii, to be more specific).

I doubt it that Martin will do us the favour of deciding if he wants the Unsullied to be more phalanx or more legion (he hasn't till now), nor will he read up on the differences and developments through the ages.

As I said: The answer to the question is a question - but Martin will not give us any specifics.

[BlackLightning]

59 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

It is true that Martin does not understand military very well and thus gives contradictory information. But as saying goes: if it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Behaviour of Westerosi armies fits professional forces - tactically, strategically and logistically. Thus from military analysis, they are professional forces. Further, the entire talk of "banners" fits banderial system, which was utilized in Hungary. In it, each lord trains, equips and fields his own (essentially professional) army ("banderium, banner"), and is expected to appear with it when king summons him. What is notable is that political consequences of banderial system also fit what is happening in Westeros. More here.

I think the larger point is not that the armies of Westeros are not professional. To an extent, they are...especially the armies of the Vale, Dorne, the North, the Iron Islands and the marcher lords.

The larger point is that the armies that will follow Daenerys are more than professional. They are experts in the art of war. Part of the reason why they are beyond professional is because Dany's armies are standing armies who, frankly, know nothing of true peace. The armies of Westeros -- as previously mentioned -- go home after war.

I also want to point out that while Aegon still (armed with a professional army) is going to be beholden the feudal system of Westeros, Daenerys will not be. Daenerys is actually poised to usher in the age of absolutism with all of her standing armies. And no, the Unsullied and the Dothraki will not be the only ones.

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, Morte said:

Well, Daven is surely a factor, but I don't even know what he himself would think about the whole situation. It might be he will die in a battle against Aegon. The Lannisters will not side with any Targ that early, but yes - the lords and ladies of the West might "think for themselves", either playing "late Lord Frey" when the banners are called against Aegon, or outright switching to him.

We know there is that Prologue going to be featuring Jeyne Westerling, so we are likely going to get an attack on Forley Prester's host escorting Jeyne and Edmure back into the Westerlands. Daven isn't with them, so he might live somewhat longer, but I'd not bet on him getting back to Casterly Rock alive.

14 hours ago, Morte said:

Well, Garlan could also die there, leaving Mace with only Willas (and a presumed seriously injured Loras, who is Schrödinger's cat at this moment). Depending on what happens to Margaery it might be a reason for Mace to switch to Aegon (thining about the knight with the weathervane, that would be the time House Tyrell should add it to their sigil, too).

I expect to see more of Garlan before he dies - assuming he dies at all. Especially since I think he was the one who put the Strangler into the goblet, which means I'd like him to be around when people figure out that the Tyrells poisoned King Joffrey.

Euron making it clear that he is not going to help his men on the Shields should indicate the Tyrells should have not a lot of trouble getting them back, although it likely going to be tedious business.

Loras shouldn't be that bad off considering Mace mentioned him and his men in the Epilogue. I guess it will turn out he is disfigured and not so much dying. He might look a little bit like Aegon II after Rook's Rest.

Yeah, the Margaery or Tommen/Myrcella thing goes south before they face Aegon in battle, Mace would have sufficient motivation to defect.

My favorite scenario for Cersei's trial - which I guess is likely to happen although we cannot even know that with the double murder possibly changing everything in the city - is that Ser Robert makes short work out of the Faith champion but ends up revealing his true identity either by talking (like he did back during the Oberyn-Gregor duel) and/or by losing his helmet, so that all the world can see what kind of abomination he is.

This will then trigger the High Septon to declare Cersei guilty rather than innocent because she used foul sorcery and 'the help of the Lord of the Seven Hells' to deceive the Seven. Considering that the charges the trial-by-combat is to decide are not merely Cersei's most recent crimes but also Stannis' accusations that her children were fathered by Jaime this would then result in the High Septon as avatar of the Seven declaring Tommen and Myrcella Baratheon abominations and bastards born of incest and adultery.

It would also be a crucial step convincing the Dornish to side with Aegon since neither the Sand Snakes nor Doran and Arianne could suffer it if they were to learn that they lied to them about Gregor Clegane.

Regardless what happens to Margaery, this would still effectively end the Margaery-Tommen marriage - just as it will be the beginning of the end of Tommen's reign. Even if Mace were to try to continue to run 'King Tommen's' government after that - it would be all slipping away very quickly - especially if he also had to still face Aegon in battle.

14 hours ago, Morte said:

Or Sam could try to contact his distant relatives himself, when he finds something in the Citadel, or the situation gets dire.

I'd think that even if Lord Leyton was not informed by Marwyn, Sam might want to meet Aunty Rhea and tell Lord Leyton what he learned beyond the Wall and from Aemon.

14 hours ago, Morte said:

Well, he will have too, also with the Unsullied and her mercenaries, because Winter is no longer coming, it has started. And I don't see them fighting half naked in snow and Arctic temperatures. Dany will also have to bring provisions, as she will arrive much later then Aegon did and by that time there will be no food supplies to get from the land (another unrealistic element, because of course feeding such a big army would be just as impossible as getting them all over the Narrow Sea in reality; I think it will be dried horse mead they will feed upon).

Well, there should be food aplenty to be had in the southern reaches of Essos, in the lands south of Pentos from the Rhoyne to the Narrow Sea. And they won't see all that much of winter down in Slaver's Bay or Volantis, anyway. I Volantis it is still scathing hot, even at night.

But the Dothraki Sea changes shape in autumn and winter - we see Dany seeing the tall grass dying. Thus we know winter is a thing for the Dothraki and they know how to survive in it - regardless how exactly this is done in detail.

If imagine Dany as sacking or destroying all the slaver cities, slaver Free Cities included (aside from irrelevant Lorath on its island, and, of course, Braavos) then they should have food aplenty. And if they don't bother how the Pentoshi or Myrmen or Qohorik survive winter, they could take pretty much all they have to have food for themselves and Dany's subjects in Westeros.

One cannot really measure how much food they could take from the Flatlands alone.

6 hours ago, Aldarion said:

You wrote that: "Dany doesn't have to rely on the lords and knights of Westeros. She will have her own men who will see her not as their mortal king but worship her as their living god/savior. They are not going to betray her nor abandon her."

Keep in mind that she will be bringing back war to a continent which just got hope of peace back. Even people who would normally be her allies will be reluctant to join her. So I definitely can see many deciding to sit it out, but out of those who do not, very few will join Daenerys.

By the time Dany arrives in Westeros the land should be a blased, ruined wasteland. There is no peace to be had there right now, Aegon and Euron and Stannis are fanning the flames of war, nobody is quenching them.

One can imagine that Aegon magically ends all war and creates an illusion of peace in the middle of winter, but that's a very unlikely scenario. There will be another war fought while Dany is a way, possibly more than just one, and that leaving the Westerosi weaker not stronger. And it certainly is possible that the prospect to submit to a really powerful ruler who could crush all the other would-be kings is going to look more attractive than anyone else.

Because, again, Aegon doesn't have dragons.

6 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Arbor IIRC is not exactly small. Unless it is so small as to not be self-sufficient, it will have to be taken by force.

That would depend whether the people there are going to be willing to fight after Euron has just crushed their entire fleet without any significant losses of his own. Would you then continue to fight? Against a man who can magically create storms or all up krakens from the deep?

But to be sure, there might be some fighting there, but we don't know the names of any castles on the Arbor, so they might not be that significant. And towns and villages are easily taken.

6 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Except we see plenty of evidence that they in fact are trained soldiers. Ser Stafford Lannister did not just raise a bunch of peasants, gave them spears and threw them forth to die. He spent time training them. Behaviour of Northern infantry at Battle of Green Fork - and for that matter, Tywin's deployment - show that they are definitely well-trained and disciplined. Tywin would have never placed his infantry in the center if they had been an untrained rabble - that is just inviting disaster; if your center is gone, you are done for. Yet he had infantry center and cavalry wings, much like Roman simplex acies (I hope I got the name right) or Byzantine 6th century formations. Typical cavalry-dominant feudal army you are describing would have deployed cavalry in the front and infantry in the rear, with aim to obliterate the enemy with a cavalry charge and letting infantry mop up the rest - this was partly cultural, but partly just common sense: if infantry is unreliable, you don't deploy them in the main battle line, for the reasons already noted. Northern infantry likewise shows tactics and discipline which only professional soldiers can display.

They are more trained and disciplined than the wildlings, sure. There is a core contingent of trained men-at-arms and sworn swords in addition to the knights and their retinues, and there are also sellswords and freeriders, but the conscripted men are, for the most part, people of the sort Eustace Osgrey wants to take to war (and did take to war during the Blackfyre Rebellion).

The idea as I see it is that you get some short training when you are called to arms, and mostly the first army a lord raises is the one with the best men, because it will be made up of most trained professionals/veterans, whereas a second or third army will consist of green boys and old men too feeble enought to be very effective. We see this kind of thing with Stafford's Lannisport host and the army Rhaegar led to the Trident.

And I'm not saying those men cannot really do their jobs satisfactorily - the idea is just that they won't be prepared for or easily adapt to, say, Black Balaq's goldenheart archers or a Dothraki khalasar.

6 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And you cannot say that Martin "doesn't care" about realistic historical development or stratified feudal society, when he said this:

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/george-r-r-martin-the-rolling-stone-interview-242487/

"Ruling is hard. This was maybe my answer to Tolkien, whom, as much as I admire him, I do quibble with. Lord of the Rings had a very medieval philosophy: that if the king was a good man, the land would prosper. We look at real history and it’s not that simple. Tolkien can say that Aragorn became king and reigned for a hundred years, and he was wise and good. But Tolkien doesn’t ask the question: What was Aragorn’s tax policy? Did he maintain a standing army? What did he do in times of flood and famine? And what about all these orcs? By the end of the war, Sauron is gone but all of the orcs aren’t gone – they’re in the mountains. Did Aragorn pursue a policy of systematic genocide and kill them? Even the little baby orcs, in their little orc cradles?"

And bolded is what I have a problem with. As for the rest, what you are describing is logistical nightmare if not impossibility: I have already explained why earlier.

George didn't create a realistic medieval fantasy society. Noble bloodlines in unbroken male succession for 8,000 or even 6,000 years are a joke. As is the general fact that a world where the likes of Littlefinger and Varys claw their way to power and eat naive men like Ned alive would ever allow stable feudal society with royal and noble dyansties develop. Instead, we would see a society where ruthless men murder themselves to the top and their incomentent and lazy descendants are then overthrown 3-4 generations later - as it was basically in every society where royal blood wasn't worshipped as divine (which was the case in many of the stable European medieval monarchies). Instead somehow the Littlefingers only seem to raise their heads in the present time ... but not back in the old days.

George also sucks at depicting a properly stratified noble society with there being only lords in Westeros. That is no realistic depiction of a stratified noble society where lords can also have lords (and those lords again other lords) as their bannermen and vassals. And George has long ago recognized this as a mistake - you might realize that more recently introduced noble houses have an impressive string of titles, like the Manderlys in ADwD or the Hightowers in the appendix of AFfC.

But the most important thing is that we don't know anything about the commoners and how they fit into the societal framework or what roles they play in the military environment. George just doesn't care all that much about this - and that shows.

And with relation to the battles we can expect realism like the Battle of the Kingsroad, the Last Storm, the Third Dornish War, the Battle of the Red Fork, the Butcher's Ball, and the Fishfeed. It will be mostly about ingenious command tactics - use of environment, weaponry, and psychology. And in the latter field especially the correct assessment of the shortcomings and character flaws in the enemy commander - because those commanders are our 'heroes'.

It will be stuff the average reader can grasp without knowing much/anything about military history - like special bows piercing through plate, elephants/dragons causing the lines of the enemy to break/horses to flee, smart use of the environment being used to lure the enemy into a trap, greater stamina/discipline in a much smaller army allowing them to withstand the assault of a larger one - or put a great force to rout because they attack them mercilessly.

George is realistic on the personal and conceptual level. His concept on kingship is realistic. He has no stewards ruling 'until the return of the king' for a thousand years, his kings and future kings are not all noble and wise but a fallable human beings, his women don't see it as their duty to offer any man they encounter a drink.

One can easily enough see Varys/Illyrio as Elrond and Aegon as their Aragorn ... but that hidden prince is not going to turn out like Tolkien's Aragorn. He will be the antithesis of that.

His people are also realistic, being not clichés or stereotypes, but not exactly fitting well into their roles and what society expects of them. But the worldbuilding as such suffers from a lot of shortcomings

6 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Daenerys won't come with food, if she is bringing a large army with her, she will need the food for them. If Westeros doesn't have enough trade to supply its needs already, she won't be able to change a thing. If Westeros already has enough trade to supply its needs, she won't be able to - or need to - change a thing. Except for her dragons serving as weapons against the Others, she won't be able to make things better in Westeros at all. And if she loots all the gold from the cities she crushed on the way, who will be willing to trade with her once Winter comes?

As I said above - that can be rectified by not just taking gold and valuables from the conquered city but also a lot of food. One could easily enough establish a supply line by ship. Say, part of Dany's host lands at KL and takes the city after they have taken Pentos, they could bring food in on a daily basis from Pentos and the Flatlands. Like the Tyrells were throwing food left and right at the Kingslanders, Dany could do the same thing easily enough.

The fact just is - there is no way Essos is going to be more destroyed than Westeros by the time Dany gets there. The North and the Riverlands are already ruins, and that trend is going to continue long before Dany even decides to go to Westeros, much less arrive there.

[BlackLightning]

@Lord Varys

While I agree with you that Euron and Stannis just aren't going to go away, I do think that Aegon will be able to take the Iron Throne and secure fairly large parts of southern Westeros before Daenerys' arrival.

And I have to say that I don't think Aegon will engage Euron or Stannis until after Dany comes, if at all. He doesn't have the means to challenge Euron at all (the Golden Company is strong on land, not at sea) and Stannis is much too far away and much too weak for Aegon to immediately bestir himself.

Besides, leading a campaign of men used to warmer weather into the North now that it is officially winter is absolutely nuts. Even for someone like Aegon. Especially since southern Westeros does the means of supplying and feeding such an army. Aegon and his council will establish that Stannis has until spring to give it up; when spring comes and he still won't budge, they will deal with him accordingly.

Aegon is more likely to engage Euron before Stannis and there's no way JonCon will allow him to do that unless they are absolutely forced.

Fortunately, for them, I think the Citadel and the Hightower will be keeping Euron busy for most of The Winds of Winter.

I think that outside of Oldtown, the Arbor and 70% of the Riverlands, most of southern Westeros will be mostly intact by the time Dany arrives. Hungry but intact. I think the invasions of the Others and Daenerys Stormborn along with the destruction that the Greyjoy-Lannister alliance is bound to create is going to be what does it.

By the end of the main story (pre-epilogue), I think all of Westeros will be a blasted wasteland. From Hardhome all the way down to the Arbor.

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

And I have to say that I don't think Aegon will engage Euron or Stannis until after Dany comes, if at all. He doesn't have the means to challenge Euron at all (the Golden Company is strong on land, not at sea) and Stannis is much too far away and much too weak for Aegon to immediately bestir himself.

Oh, but it is not up to 'the lad' to decide who takes on him, is it? Euron is not going to waste time with the Hightowers once he finds out some Targaryen boy is trying to steal 'his throne'. He will target him, because he is the guy standing between him and what he wants.

With Stannis I agree to a point - I don't think Stannis will go down south, but Aegon might decide to go up North if he learns about the Others, starts believing he is the savior of the world, and ends up teaming up with/marrying Sansa. To hold the Wall men have to man it, and for that men have to go up there.

But there are other ways Aegon might ruin things for everyone - if the Tyrells were not to bend the knee to him he might carry the war to the Reach and Highgarden (a scenario possible if Tommen and/or Myrcella slip through his fingers and remain in Tyrell custody), and I'm also expecting to take on the West, sacking Lannisport, trying to conquer Casterly Rock, stuff like that.

In addition, Jon Connington will bring the grey plague or an infectious strain of greyscale to Westeros, turning Aegon into a very unpopular guy once people make that connection.

George has gone on record before ADwD came out that the book's big theme would be disease - he delivered somewhat on that front with the Pale Mare, but that didn't affect all that many people we cared about so far, nor did it kill crucial characters. But Connington's greyscale infection is a ticking time bomb which will explode in TWoW.

Dany is not going to get to Westeros in the next book, possibly not even in the one after that, depending how slowly her story progresses. But things in Westeros will continue, and winter in combination with hunger is not going to increase the likelihood that there will be much organized resistance once Dany arrives aside from a couple of armies already in the field by then. The idea that Dany's arrival will trigger some lords to raise new armies strikes me as pretty much insane.

[H Wadsworth Longfellow]

The people of Westeros have not forgotten the Targaryens.  Many will be excited to behold the magnificent dragons.  Daenerys Targaryen and her dragons will be instant celebrities.  Most of the noble families will want a return of Targaryen rule.  The Baratheons have been proven incapable of managing Westeros.  The kingdom that has held together for 300 years broke apart under their watch.  

Robert died but not before bankrupting the kingdom.  The Baratheon brothers fought and caused the deaths of thousands because they could not decide who would get the throne.  Robert's best friend, the Hand, made a public admission to treason and got executed in front of the whole city.  The crowd was hating on Ned after his admission.  His son then calls a rebellion that, once again, killed thousands upon thousands of people.  What's beyond the pale, Robb had the nerve to declare the north independent.  The bastard son of said Hand brings Wildlings through for the purpose of attacking the Warden of the North and thereby betrayed the Nights Watch.  Balon and his children starts causing problems in the north.  The much disliked Boltons finally rid the north of the ironborn.  I wonder how long they will be disliked if only Roose could control Ramsay.  Jaime, the most dishonorable man to ever wear the white cloak is the damn lord commander of the Kingsguard.  The silent Martells are plotting revenge and are working to snare Aegon Blackfyre in their conspiracy against the Lannisters.  Stannis is wasting lives and soldiers in the north.  Westeros has never been in this bad of shape.  The people will be ready for a return to Targaryen rule.  The Unsullied are good for public relation because everybody knows they will not rape and steal.  The Dothraki will raise some eyebrows but everybody knows they are not interested in making a permanent home in Westeros because they are a nomadic people.  The only resistance will come from the Lannisters and Petyr Baelish.  Cersei, Jaime, Petyr, and Sansa could burn for all I care.  The north will be ice zombies by then and their Other masters will resist too but some kind of treaty can be made where they get to keep everything on the north side of Moat Cailin.

[BlackLightning]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, but it is not up to 'the lad' to decide who takes on him, is it? Euron is not going to waste time with the Hightowers once he finds out some Targaryen boy is trying to steal 'his throne'. He will target him, because he is the guy standing between him and what he wants.

Good point.

But who is to say that Euron will be able to drop everything he is doing to take care of Aegon?

Much like how he just couldn't afford to leave for Slaver's Bay with all the Ironborn, I doubt he will be able to completely stop whatever he is doing just to take Aegon out of the picture. Especially not with his lords clamoring to pay the iron price. If he wants to abandon his temporary goals in the Reach on a moment's notice, he's going to have to leave his army and take a smaller contingent to Aegon. What good does that do him to be separated from 80% of his strength. Moreover, if he could have afforded to do that, why bother sending Victarion when he could leave Victarion and go after Daenerys himself.

And like others have mentioned before, the Ironborn's power lies at sea whereas Aegon has firmly entrenched himself with a fairly powerful land-based army on the mainland. By the time Euron gets to the other side of Westeros, Aegon will have further cemented himself.

And there's a good chance that with Arianne involved, Aegon may only have need of one of the two Dornish armies. The other Dornish army can either return to Sunspear, march westwards to secure the Reach/drive out the Ironborn or both.

Quote

With Stannis I agree to a point - I don't think Stannis will go down south, but Aegon might decide to go up North if he learns about the Others, starts believing he is the savior of the world, and ends up teaming up with/marrying Sansa. To hold the Wall men have to man it, and for that men have to go up there.

I don't think he's marrying Sansa. I don't even think Sansa will be in the Vale; I think Sansa will be back in Winterfell by the very end of The Winds of Winter.

Aegon may send men to the Wall (or, should I say, their deaths) but I doubt he's going to go north. I don't see it happening until after Daenerys has arrived in Westeros.

Quote

But there are other ways Aegon might ruin things for everyone - if the Tyrells were not to bend the knee to him he might carry the war to the Reach and Highgarden (a scenario possible if Tommen and/or Myrcella slip through his fingers and remain in Tyrell custody), and I'm also expecting to take on the West, sacking Lannisport, trying to conquer Casterly Rock, stuff like that.

I definitely don't think the Tyrells will bend the knee to Aegon. Well, some might but not all of them and definitely not immediately after whatever happens at Storm's End happens at Storm's End.

For all we know, Mace Tyrell may not even be able to personally address the Aegon problem until after Storm's End.

Loras is on Dragonstone, both of which are pretty much marking time for Daenerys to take it and use it to arm the people of Westeros with dragonglass. I see him as House Tyrell's ace-in-the-hole, a way for House Tyrell to straddle the fence.

Quote

In addition, Jon Connington will bring the grey plague or an infectious strain of greyscale to Westeros, turning Aegon into a very unpopular guy once people make that connection.

George has gone on record before ADwD came out that the book's big theme would be disease - he delivered somewhat on that front with the Pale Mare, but that didn't affect all that many people we cared about so far, nor did it kill crucial characters. But Connington's greyscale infection is a ticking time bomb which will explode in TWoW.

I agree. But I think the greyscale pandemic won't really be in full swing until A Dream of Spring.

I also think Shireen's infection is a ticking time bomb. She is almost the definition of what it means to be asymptomatic and I think something will happen at the Wall that will awaken the disease.

 

Dany is not going to get to Westeros in the next book, possibly not even in the one after that, depending how slowly her story progresses. But things in Westeros will continue, and winter in combination with hunger is not going to increase the likelihood that there will be much organized resistance once Dany arrives aside from a couple of armies already in the field by then. The idea that Dany's arrival will trigger some lords to raise new armies strikes me as pretty much insane.

Well, I imagine that the Westerlands, the Stormlands, Reach and Dorne have produced enough food. The Riverlands may starve and there may be very slim pickings in the West and the Stormlands but I think they will be mostly okay. And we know for a fact that the Westerlands and the Reach can both field more armies and that Dorne could squeeze out another. The tens of thousands of men Mace Tyrell commands have been in the field since the start of the War of Five Kings.

I think lords raising new armies will be necessity when Dany comes in from the east, the Others start to pile-drive southwards and Euron uses the might of House Lannister to swoop in from the west and southwest....

[Hodor the Articulate]

10 hours ago, Aldarion said:

 That is how it often worked historically. Possession is half the mastery - well, more like 90%.

I will admit to not being very studied in history. Still, I'm pretty sure there haven't been many people successfully holding a kingship or lordship or whatever by claiming to be the previously thought dead heir, surviving through timey wimey magic, while other heirs with their identities not in doubt exist.

10 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Read again. I was replying to your last sentence: "Aegon is not what he is touted to be". That is something I agree with, but it doesn't mean he won't be a good king. The only person I can think of on short notice that would be definitely better option than Aegon is ser Davos, and he would never accept being a king.

In other words, he will not be "perfect prince" which Varys is describing him as, but he should not be bad ruler either.

And I was referring to this: "If there is a point, then it is [...] "not anyone can mould somebody else into a good king", seeing how Aegon's point of failure is that none of his teachers actually have any experience in ruling." He cannot be both a good king and a failure of a project to mould a good king. You have to drop one of your arguments.

You haven't addressed the unlikelihood of seeing Aegon be a "good king". How do suppose it will be shown to us when he will be in war non-stop?

10 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Not necessarily. Matthias Corvinus had very problematic personality, yet he ended up being one of best kings in Hungarian and Croatian history. Charles XII of Sweden started off as a spoiled brat who killed his pet bear by getting him so drunk on wine that bear fell out of the window, yet he turned Sweden from a falling-apart state into a military superpower (until his death, anyway). And if he hadn't invaded Russia, Sweden might have stayed that way.  List of Byzantine rulers with difficult or otherwise unenviable personalities is as long as my arm, yet far fewer were actually outright incompetent.

You keep falling back on irl history to support your arguments when it has very little relevance in a fictional story. Like, what has this got to do with Aegon? Do you think Aegon is based on this historical figure?

Going back to George's character, he has shown to be a generally decent person. He is charismatic and grateful to those those who are loyal to him and help him (Duck, Tyrion). The flip side of that is he may also be overly trusting not a great judge of character, as he lets Tyrion manipulate him. The same scene also shows him to be emotionally immature throwing a tantrum when realising he'd been tricked. I think from this, we can guess at what kind of a ruler he will be: one that is easily swayed.

10 hours ago, Aldarion said:

You wrote that: "Dany doesn't have to rely on the lords and knights of Westeros. She will have her own men who will see her not as their mortal king but worship her as their living god/savior. They are not going to betray her nor abandon her."

Keep in mind that she will be bringing back war to a continent which just got hope of peace back. Even people who would normally be her allies will be reluctant to join her. So I definitely can see many deciding to sit it out, but out of those who do not, very few will join Daenerys.

Why are you assuming Aegon will be able to defeat Cercei, Stannis, Euron, and whatever else is going on up north before Dany arrives? By your logic, Aegon will also have a hard time attracting allies, since he's introducing war into a land that has had "hope of peace" since the Battle of the Blackwater.

[Morte]

10 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I also want to point out that while Aegon still (armed with a professional army) is going to be beholden the feudal system of Westeros, Daenerys will not be. Daenerys is actually poised to usher in the age of absolutism with all of her standing armies. And no, the Unsullied and the Dothraki will not be the only ones.

Actually it would be the next logical and necessary step for Westeros to evolve: Egg's reforms, strengthen of the central government with real clerks and a central administration, schools and more than just one(!) place for higher learning... Long way to go (100 years or more), but it's about time for Westeros to begin walking that road, at least.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I expect to see more of Garlan before he dies - assuming he dies at all. Especially since I think he was the one who put the Strangler into the goblet, which means I'd like him to be around when people figure out that the Tyrells poisoned King Joffrey.

Euron making it clear that he is not going to help his men on the Shields should indicate the Tyrells should have not a lot of trouble getting them back, although it likely going to be tedious business.

Loras shouldn't be that bad off considering Mace mentioned him and his men in the Epilogue. I guess it will turn out he is disfigured and not so much dying. He might look a little bit like Aegon II after Rook's Rest.

Yeah, the Margaery or Tommen/Myrcella thing goes south before they face Aegon in battle, Mace would have sufficient motivation to defect.

Sure. And depending how it all develops from here, the family-members not included in the whole murder mystery might react at "little" put off, when they learn about it.

And yes, I do agree that Loras is most likely more or less "fine".

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

My favorite scenario for Cersei's trial - [...]

is mine, too.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, there should be food aplenty to be had in the southern reaches of Essos, in the lands south of Pentos from the Rhoyne to the Narrow Sea. And they won't see all that much of winter down in Slaver's Bay or Volantis, anyway. I Volantis it is still scathing hot, even at night.

But the Dothraki Sea changes shape in autumn and winter - we see Dany seeing the tall grass dying. Thus we know winter is a thing for the Dothraki and they know how to survive in it - regardless how exactly this is done in detail.

If imagine Dany as sacking or destroying all the slaver cities, slaver Free Cities included (aside from irrelevant Lorath on its island, and, of course, Braavos) then they should have food aplenty. And if they don't bother how the Pentoshi or Myrmen or Qohorik survive winter, they could take pretty much all they have to have food for themselves and Dany's subjects in Westeros.

One cannot really measure how much food they could take from the Flatlands alone.

Well, of course the whole logistics aren't realistic at all, but that's not the problem, imho (because Martin doesn't care?).

I do agree that Dany will bring provisions and a lot of people with her, simply because by the time she will set sails she will come because of the Long Night and the Others, not because of Aegon (no matter what will happen in Westeros after her arrival, her primary goal will not be the Game of Thrones).

She might not sack all of the cities, nor will she take everything, but she will be able to take enough for her people (and maybe even spares) with her; leaving Essos in the hands of people she thinks she can trust not to destroy everything she had accomplished thus far (the Widow of the Waterfront comes to mind, for example).

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

George also sucks at depicting a properly stratified noble society with there being only lords in Westeros. That is no realistic depiction of a stratified noble society where lords can also have lords (and those lords again other lords) as their bannermen and vassals. And George has long ago recognized this as a mistake - you might realize that more recently introduced noble houses have an impressive string of titles, like the Manderlys in ADwD or the Hightowers in the appendix of AFfC.

But the most important thing is that we don't know anything about the commoners and how they fit into the societal framework or what roles they play in the military environment. George just doesn't care all that much about this - and that shows.

And with relation to the battles we can expect realism like the Battle of the Kingsroad, the Last Storm, the Third Dornish War, the Battle of the Red Fork, the Butcher's Ball, and the Fishfeed. It will be mostly about ingenious command tactics - use of environment, weaponry, and psychology. And in the latter field especially the correct assessment of the shortcomings and character flaws in the enemy commander - because those commanders are our 'heroes'.

7 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

By the end of the main story (pre-epilogue), I think all of Westeros will be a blasted wasteland. From Hardhome all the way down to the Arbor.

I actually think they manage to make it a wasteland even before Dany sets one feet on Westerosi soil, the lords of this world are very good at this.

5 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Loras is on Dragonstone, both of which are pretty much marking time for Daenerys to take it and use it to arm the people of Westeros with dragonglass. I see him as House Tyrell's ace-in-the-hole, a way for House Tyrell to straddle the fence.

I, too, see Loras binding his time on Dragonstone to be picked up by Daenerys, but I think him landing in her camp would not as much be a way for the Tyrells to switch sides, but more a part of House Tyrell being divided into different camps.

[Aldarion]

11 hours ago, Morte said:

Yes, but I think Martin does work with Maribald's picture in mind, he just isn't consistent, or maybe he simply doesn't care than trying to make a battle work. But honestly - semi-professional armies also don't work in Westeros. They aren't paid, the land as such is much too poor (count the cities... *facepalm* That continent is as big as South America, and it has what? five cities?), we have no schooling system at all in place, etc.pp.

 

Semi-professional armies actually can work in a society which is not significantly urbanized. Byzantine Empire of 7th and 8th centuries was significantly more rural than it was in 5th and 6th century, yet it still maintained a standing professional army (tagmata) and the semi-professional part-time armies (themata).

12 hours ago, Morte said:

I think we have a slight misunderstanding here, because we are talking about different centuries of Roman Military. Hastati, triarii and principes didn't exist as such (termini survived longer) after the invention of the muli mariani. After the reform they essentially all had two pila, one hasta, one sword (gladius, later spatha), dagger (pugio), one shield and armour (lorica hamata and segmentata).

 

It is unlikely that Marius' Mules had hasta at all. In fact, there are records of legionaries of late Republic Principate using pila to ward off cavalry, because those were the longest spears they had. Specifically this:

http://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Plutarch/Lives/Pompey*.html

Quote

69 1 Pompey himself, with the right wing, intended to oppose Antony; in the centre he stationed Scipio, his father-in‑law, over against Lucius Calvinus; his left wing was commanded by Lucius Domitius, and was supported by the main body of the cavalry.91 2 For almost all the horsemen had crowded to this point, in order to overpower Caesar and cut to pieces the tenth legion; for this was generally said to fight better than any other, and in its ranks Caesar usually stood when he fought a battle. But Caesar, observing that the left wing of the enemy was enclosed by such a large body of horsemen, and alarmed at their brilliant array, sent for six cohorts from his reserves and stationed them behind the tenth legion, 3 with orders to kept quiet and out of the enemy's sight; but whenever the cavalry charged, they were to run out through the front ranks, and were not to hurl their javelins, as  p297 the best soldiers usually did in their eagerness to draw their swords, but to strike upwards with them and wound the faces and eyes of the enemy; for these blooming and handsome war-dancers (he said) would not stand their ground for fear of having their youthful beauty marred, nor would they face the steel when it was right at their eyes. Caesar, then, was thus engaged.

 

12 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I think the larger point is not that the armies of Westeros are not professional. To an extent, they are...especially the armies of the Vale, Dorne, the North, the Iron Islands and the marcher lords.

The larger point is that the armies that will follow Daenerys are more than professional. They are experts in the art of war. Part of the reason why they are beyond professional is because Dany's armies are standing armies who, frankly, know nothing of true peace. The armies of Westeros -- as previously mentioned -- go home after war.

I also want to point out that while Aegon still (armed with a professional army) is going to be beholden the feudal system of Westeros, Daenerys will not be. Daenerys is actually poised to usher in the age of absolutism with all of her standing armies. And no, the Unsullied and the Dothraki will not be the only ones.

Problem is that merely having a standing army is no guarantee of success. If your standing army is garbage, or else commanders are garbage, you may still get defeated by militia - look at campaigns of Charles the Bold. He created the best military in Europe of the day, yet he lost against the Swiss. Part of that was Charles' command, part of that was terrain, part was motivation.

Unsullied are a professional standing army, but they are equipped with short spears (hence why they use shields); against heavy cavalry with lances, they are not going to be terribly effective. And Westerosi pikemen will walk all over them. Western knights still defeated Ottoman professional sipahis whenever they came to clash in a frontal charge, unless latter had much greater numbers.

Even with equal tactics and equipment, I do believe that too much professionalization can be as harmful as too little. Professional army is, overall, an army of conquest. For defensive operations, a National Guard style military (which is to say, Byzantine thematic system) backed up by a professional core appears to be ideal. This can be seen through history. Roman Republic overcame Hannibal's professional army simply because it could accept losses while Hannibal could not. Byzantine thematic armies were not as effective in the field as standing professional armies - such as 6th century Byzantine army or Middle Byzantine tagmata which backed themes. But once thematic system was dissolved, imperial tagmata were simply not enough to save Anatolia for the Empire, and Byzantium had to call for Western help - which led to the First Crusade. Themes provided structural resillience which standing, fully professional which replaced them simply did not have. Komnenian military restoration was founded on quasi-revival of thematic armies through pronoia system, and once pronoia system was dissolved, Anatolia was lost for second - and final - time.

Intentionally or not, what Aegon will have in Westeros after his conquest is actually similar to the above Byzantine system - though it is actual closer to what Matthias Corvinus established. Namely, he will have a standing professional army (Golden Company) backed up by a part-time army of feudal banderies. Which are still professional soldiers, just not full-time ones.

5 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I think the larger point is not that the armies of Westeros are not professional. To an extent, they are...especially the armies of the Vale, Dorne, the North, the Iron Islands and the marcher lords.

The larger point is that the armies that will follow Daenerys are more than professional. They are experts in the art of war. Part of the reason why they are beyond professional is because Dany's armies are standing armies who, frankly, know nothing of true peace. The armies of Westeros -- as previously mentioned -- go home after war.

I also want to point out that while Aegon still (armed with a professional army) is going to be beholden the feudal system of Westeros, Daenerys will not be. Daenerys is actually poised to usher in the age of absolutism with all of her standing armies. And no, the Unsullied and the Dothraki will not be the only ones.

Such cases are rare, yes. And as I have noted before, my knowledge of history is centered mostly around medieval Hungary-Croatia and Byzantine Empire, so it is possible I am making a mistake here. But historically, people were fully willing to change whole dynasties at drop of the hat: very few dynasties lasted for more than a couple hundred years, or even just a century. So I think you are rather overstating the importance of Aegon's actual identity. As long as doubt exists, it will be enough to justify supporting him - especially against someone who comes with an (apparently) slave army and a bunch of uncouth barbarians.

Legitimate rulers often lost most of their support when they tried to retake throne by relying on help of someone people back home did not like. 

5 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

And I was referring to this: "If there is a point, then it is [...] "not anyone can mould somebody else into a good king", seeing how Aegon's point of failure is that none of his teachers actually have any experience in ruling." He cannot be both a good king and a failure of a project to mould a good king. You have to drop one of your arguments.

You haven't addressed the unlikelihood of seeing Aegon be a "good king". How do suppose it will be shown to us when he will be in war non-stop?

I don't have to drop anything. Rather, you have to drop your binary view of good king/bad king. Varyis is not presenting Aegon as merely a "good king", but as an "ideal king". He can still prove an adequate ruler while being a far cry from what he is being touted as. Hardly anybody would call Matthias Corvinus, or Nikephoros II. Phokas, or Sigismund of Luxembourg, or Baldwin IV or Jerusalem, ideal rulers. But all of them were good rulers. Heck, even Vlad Dracul was a good ruler, compared to many.

Managing the kingdom does not stop because kingdom is in war. Matthias Corvinus had time for war and reforms both. So did Diocletian.

5 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

You keep falling back on irl history to support your arguments when it has very little relevance in a fictional story. Like, what has this got to do with Aegon? Do you think Aegon is based on this historical figure?

I am falling back on RL history because one of reasons George Martin started writing was that he wanted to show realistic struggles of ruling, instead of relying (as Tolkien did) on medieval assumption that good man = good ruler. To repeat:

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/george-r-r-martin-the-rolling-stone-interview-242487/

"Ruling is hard. This was maybe my answer to Tolkien, whom, as much as I admire him, I do quibble with. Lord of the Rings had a very medieval philosophy: that if the king was a good man, the land would prosper. We look at real history and it’s not that simple. Tolkien can say that Aragorn became king and reigned for a hundred years, and he was wise and good. But Tolkien doesn’t ask the question: What was Aragorn’s tax policy? Did he maintain a standing army? What did he do in times of flood and famine? And what about all these orcs? By the end of the war, Sauron is gone but all of the orcs aren’t gone – they’re in the mountains. Did Aragorn pursue a policy of systematic genocide and kill them? Even the little baby orcs, in their little orc cradles?"

If Martin ignores history for sake of literary expediency, then it means that he has abandoned the goal he stated above.

5 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

You keep falling back on irl history to support your arguments when it has very little relevance in a fictional story. Like, what has this got to do with Aegon? Do you think Aegon is based on this historical figure?

That is true.

6 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Why are you assuming Aegon will be able to defeat Cercei, Stannis, Euron, and whatever else is going on up north before Dany arrives? By your logic, Aegon will also have a hard time attracting allies, since he's introducing war into a land that has had "hope of peace" since the Battle of the Blackwater.

He would have had hard time attracting allies in more normal circumstances, yes. But keep in mind that Tywin Lannister is dead, Kevan Lannister is dead... Cersei has a free reign in King's Landing. If you want to be technical, Aegon probably does not need to fight a single battle to gain the throne: Cersei will do all the work for him.

Stannis is in the North, without a fleet. By the time he becomes an issue, Daenerys may well have already arrived.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

By the time Dany arrives in Westeros the land should be a blased, ruined wasteland. There is no peace to be had there right now, Aegon and Euron and Stannis are fanning the flames of war, nobody is quenching them.

One can imagine that Aegon magically ends all war and creates an illusion of peace in the middle of winter, but that's a very unlikely scenario. There will be another war fought while Dany is a way, possibly more than just one, and that leaving the Westerosi weaker not stronger. And it certainly is possible that the prospect to submit to a really powerful ruler who could crush all the other would-be kings is going to look more attractive than anyone else.

Because, again, Aegon doesn't have dragons.

My point is that Aegon is the only hope of peace they have. Tywin is dead, Kevan is dead, Cersei is psychothic, Euron wants to rape, pillage and burn, and nobody liked Stannis to begin with (except for those who knew him personally). Aegon doesn't need to "magically end all war"; merely working on it will already gain him popular acclaim. And when Daenerys comes talking about "muh throne", everybody will be like "where were you a year ago?".

As for how attractive Daenerys will be, that depends in good part on her behaviour. If she decides that "fire and blood" are the way, then she will be a tyrant with dragons, not a legitimate ruler with dragons.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That would depend whether the people there are going to be willing to fight after Euron has just crushed their entire fleet without any significant losses of his own. Would you then continue to fight? Against a man who can magically create storms or all up krakens from the deep?

But to be sure, there might be some fighting there, but we don't know the names of any castles on the Arbor, so they might not be that significant. And towns and villages are easily taken.

Probably. Though if Arbor has a proper militia, it should be a match for Ironborn. Of course, given how GRRM went for "Grimdark!MiddleAges" instead of historical one, chances are it has no indigenous defense force at all.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They are more trained and disciplined than the wildlings, sure. There is a core contingent of trained men-at-arms and sworn swords in addition to the knights and their retinues, and there are also sellswords and freeriders, but the conscripted men are, for the most part, people of the sort Eustace Osgrey wants to take to war (and did take to war during the Blackfyre Rebellion).

The idea as I see it is that you get some short training when you are called to arms, and mostly the first army a lord raises is the one with the best men, because it will be made up of most trained professionals/veterans, whereas a second or third army will consist of green boys and old men too feeble enought to be very effective. We see this kind of thing with Stafford's Lannisport host and the army Rhaegar led to the Trident.

And I'm not saying those men cannot really do their jobs satisfactorily - the idea is just that they won't be prepared for or easily adapt to, say, Black Balaq's goldenheart archers or a Dothraki khalasar.

That is the most likely. But that is how it is with any military system: if your first army gets destroyed, you will call up either retired veterans, "fresh meat" or both (one of major Roman advantages was that they allowed soldiers to retire and thus had veterans to call up in the first place). And new soldiers have to be given training. That does not mean that "peasants with sticks" is a normal state of Westerosi militaries. Meaning that we might well see quality differing wildly based on how many losses each kingdom took in the war so far.

Still, in medieval (and ancient) battles before invention of gunpowder, losses oftentimes were not that large, in terms of dead/crippled. Most would be either captured or will have run away. In Rome at War, figures are cited that battlefield victory saw mortality rates of 4,2% and defeats of 16%. Coupled with excess mortality rate of 3-4% per year (from marching etc.), this means that two years of war will have led to mortality rates in Westerosi armies of 10 - 50%, depending on how many battles they fought and how successful they were. Which means that even armies in Westeros which saw regular defeats should still be combat-capable, and with definitely more than half original manpower - which is to say, veterans - remaining.

Goldenheart bows are longer-ranged longbows. I doubt they can penetrate armoured plate. As for khalasar, 13th century Hungarian army managed to handle Mongols fairly well after being reformed post-first Mongol invasion. But take a look of what those reforms entailed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Mongol_invasion_of_Hungary#Military_reforms

Quote

King Béla IV took note of this, and spent the next few decades reforming Hungary in preparation for possible future invasions. He used a variety of methods to do this. First and foremost, he amalgamated the servientes and iobagiones castri into a new class of heavily armored, well-trained knights of the western type, where previously Hungary's defenses had relied almost entirely on wooden castles and light cavalry.^[10] In 1247 he concluded a feudal agreement with the Knights of St. John, giving them the southeastern borderland in exchange for their help in creating more armored cavalry and fortifications.^{[citation needed]} In 1248, he declared the country's middle strata could enter a baron's service, on the condition that the barons lead the men on his land properly equipped (in armor) into the king's army. Documents from the time state that "the nobles of our country can enter into military service of bishops in the same way in which they can serve other nobles". After 1250, free owners of small or middle sized estates serving directly under the king were included (along with barons) in the nobility. Finally, new settlers were given "conditional" nobility in exchange for the requirement of fighting mounted and armored at the king's request.^[11] In 1259, he requested that the Pope put him into contact with Venice, as he wanted to hire at least 1,000 crossbowmen (crossbows having also proven a very effective weapon against the Mongols, despite the relatively small numbers of them actually deployed by the Hungarians in 1241).^[12]

To cement his new defense doctrine, the king offered grants and rewards to cities and nobles in exchange for the building of stone fortifications. The reforms ultimately paid off. By the end of his reign, Béla IV had overseen the building of nearly 100 new fortresses.^[13] Of these 100, 66 were stone castles built on elevated sites.^[14] This was a major upgrade from 1241, when the kingdom only possessed 10 stone castles, half of which were placed along the border with the Duchy of Austria.^[15]

To sum up:

1) Heavy knightly cavalry of Western type.

2) Baronial forces.

3) Crossbowmen.

4) Stone castles.

In other words, in order to fight Mongols, Bela IV introduced all the things which Westeros already has as a cornerstone of its military system. And these reforms were successful: Mongol invasion was first stymied, and Mongols were eventually defeated in an open-field battle.

Quote

The results of the invasion could not have contrasted more sharply with those of the 1241 invasion. The invasion was repelled handily, and the Mongols lost much of their invading force due to several months of starvation, numerous small raids, and two major military defeats. This was mostly thanks to the new fortification network and the military reforms. No major invasion of Hungary would be launched after the failure of the campaign of 1285, though small raids from the Golden Horde were frequent well into the 14th century. Less than two years later, the Third Mongol invasion of Poland occurred. This invasion was also repulsed, with the Poles using a similar strategy to the Hungarians in 1285. They were aided by a Hungarian force under George Baksa (also known as George of Sóvár).^[47] It was probably in reprisal for this event that in late 1288, a Mongol force launched an attack on the Szepes (Spiš) region, albeit on a small scale. They were repelled, with George again distinguishing himself.^[48]

If George Martin knows history of Mongol invasions at all (as in, actual history as opposed to pop-culture representation of the same), then Westerosi armies should flatten Dothraki in the open field. And even outside open-field battles, extensive network of castles in Westeros means that Dothraki forces can be subject to many small raids, and their own raiding forces stymied or defeated. Matter of the fact is, Westeros is perfectly set up to counter a Mongol-like force. And I do mean "Mongol-like force", not just "Huns after lobotomy" portrayal we have seen from Dothraki so far (not that it means much, mind you).

To sum up: Westerosi-like historical force flattened historical Mongols when waging defensive war. How do you think a poor man's copy of Mongols will fare against a force which has literally all the same advantages against them, except much greater (larger castles, larger armies)? The only way they can achieve any success at all is by getting cooperation of some of local forces: which is what Mongols did in China.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

George didn't create a realistic medieval fantasy society. Noble bloodlines in unbroken male succession for 8,000 or even 6,000 years are a joke. As is the general fact that a world where the likes of Littlefinger and Varys claw their way to power and eat naive men like Ned alive would ever allow stable feudal society with royal and noble dyansties develop. Instead, we would see a society where ruthless men murder themselves to the top and their incomentent and lazy descendants are then overthrown 3-4 generations later - as it was basically in every society where royal blood wasn't worshipped as divine (which was the case in many of the stable European medieval monarchies). Instead somehow the Littlefingers only seem to raise their heads in the present time ... but not back in the old days.

George also sucks at depicting a properly stratified noble society with there being only lords in Westeros. That is no realistic depiction of a stratified noble society where lords can also have lords (and those lords again other lords) as their bannermen and vassals. And George has long ago recognized this as a mistake - you might realize that more recently introduced noble houses have an impressive string of titles, like the Manderlys in ADwD or the Hightowers in the appendix of AFfC.

But the most important thing is that we don't know anything about the commoners and how they fit into the societal framework or what roles they play in the military environment. George just doesn't care all that much about this - and that shows.

And with relation to the battles we can expect realism like the Battle of the Kingsroad, the Last Storm, the Third Dornish War, the Battle of the Red Fork, the Butcher's Ball, and the Fishfeed. It will be mostly about ingenious command tactics - use of environment, weaponry, and psychology. And in the latter field especially the correct assessment of the shortcomings and character flaws in the enemy commander - because those commanders are our 'heroes'.

It will be stuff the average reader can grasp without knowing much/anything about military history - like special bows piercing through plate, elephants/dragons causing the lines of the enemy to break/horses to flee, smart use of the environment being used to lure the enemy into a trap, greater stamina/discipline in a much smaller army allowing them to withstand the assault of a larger one - or put a great force to rout because they attack them mercilessly.

George is realistic on the personal and conceptual level. His concept on kingship is realistic. He has no stewards ruling 'until the return of the king' for a thousand years, his kings and future kings are not all noble and wise but a fallable human beings, his women don't see it as their duty to offer any man they encounter a drink.

One can easily enough see Varys/Illyrio as Elrond and Aegon as their Aragorn ... but that hidden prince is not going to turn out like Tolkien's Aragorn. He will be the antithesis of that.

His people are also realistic, being not clichés or stereotypes, but not exactly fitting well into their roles and what society expects of them. But the worldbuilding as such suffers from a lot of shortcomings

And that is what I mean when I say that Westeros is less realistic than Gondor or Rohan. It seems that George is portraying modern-day society with medieval aesthetics, as opposed to portraying a medieval society. And what isn't modern society is more of a grimdark carricature of a medieval society than anything resembling the real thing.

And even on personal and conceptual levels, he is realistic mostly from modern viewpoint. As you noted, in a society based on honour, amount of trickery we see would be self-defeating. For a medieval society, Westeros is way too dark.

And yeah, I agree about Aegon in relation to Aragorn.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

As I said above - that can be rectified by not just taking gold and valuables from the conquered city but also a lot of food. One could easily enough establish a supply line by ship. Say, part of Dany's host lands at KL and takes the city after they have taken Pentos, they could bring food in on a daily basis from Pentos and the Flatlands. Like the Tyrells were throwing food left and right at the Kingslanders, Dany could do the same thing easily enough.

That will require her to set up governments in those cities which would be willing to provide food. And her own army will be eating food, so unless she has an all-sailing-ship fleet, she won't be able to bring much to Westeros.

[Morte]

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

15 hours ago, Morte said:

I think we have a slight misunderstanding here, because we are talking about different centuries of Roman Military. Hastati, triarii and principes didn't exist as such (termini survived longer) after the invention of the muli mariani. After the reform they essentially all had two pila, one hasta, one sword (gladius, later spatha), dagger (pugio), one shield and armour (lorica hamata and segmentata).

 

It is unlikely that Marius' Mules had hasta at all. In fact, there are records of legionaries of late Republic Principate using pila to ward off cavalry, because those were the longest spears they had. Specifically this:

http://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Plutarch/Lives/Pompey*.html

Okay, I don't know why you shorted my commend here, as I clearly stated that the custom varied though the ages, buuut

thanks for two hours of training my Greek

Plutarch does use hyssos here:

  [...] κελεύσας ἡσυχίαν ἄγειν ἀδήλους τοῖς πολεμίοις ὄντας: ὅταν δὲ προσελαύνωσιν οἱ ἱππεῖς, διὰ τῶν προμάχων ἐκδραμόντας μὴ προέσθαι τοὺς ὑσσούς, ὥσπερ εἰώθασιν οἱ κράτιστοι [p. 296] σπευδοντες ἐπὶ τὰς ξιφουλκίας, [...]

and Strabon (10.1.12) does use hyssos in this context:

In fact among all the customs of warfare and of the use of arms there neither is, nor has been, any single custom; for some use long distance missiles, as, for example, bowmen and slingers and javelin-throwers, whereas others use close-fighting arms, as, for example, those who use sword, or outstretched spear; for the spear is used in two ways, one in hand-to-hand combat and the other for hurling like a javelin; just as the pike serves both purposes, for it can be used both in close combat and as a missile for hurling, which is also true of the sarissa and the hyssus.

τηλεβόλοις: καὶ γὰρ δὴ καὶ τῶν πολεμικῶν ἐθῶν καὶ τῶν ὁπλισμῶν οὐχ ἓν οὔτ᾽ ἔστιν οὔτ᾽ ἦν ἔθος: ἀλλ᾽ οἱ μὲν τηλεβόλοις χρῶνται, καθάπερ οἱ τοξόται καὶ οἱ σφενδονῆται καὶ οἱ ἀκοντισταί, οἱ δ᾽ ἀγχεμάχοις, καθάπερ οἱ ξίφει καὶ δόρατι τῷ ὀρεκτῷ χρώμενοι: διττὴ γὰρ ἡ τῶν δοράτων χρῆσις, ἡ μὲν ἐκ χειρὸς ἡ δ᾽ ὡς παλτοῖς, καθάπερ καὶ ὁ κοντὸς ἀμφοτέρας τὰς χρείας ἀποδίδωσι: καὶ γὰρ συστάδην ... καὶ κοντοβολούντων: ὅπερ καὶ ἡ σάρισσα δύναται καὶ ὁ ὑσσός.

So hyssos is the Greek word for pilum, but it doesn't tell me anything about the hasta.

[Aldarion]

7 minutes ago, Morte said:

Okay, I don't know why you shorted my commend here, as I clearly stated that the custom varied though the ages, buuut

thanks for two hours of training my Greek

Plutarch does use hyssos here:

  [...] κελεύσας ἡσυχίαν ἄγειν ἀδήλους τοῖς πολεμίοις ὄντας: ὅταν δὲ προσελαύνωσιν οἱ ἱππεῖς, διὰ τῶν προμάχων ἐκδραμόντας μὴ προέσθαι τοὺς ὑσσούς, ὥσπερ εἰώθασιν οἱ κράτιστοι [p. 296] σπευδοντες ἐπὶ τὰς ξιφουλκίας, [...]

and Strabon (10.1.12) does use hyssos in this context:

In fact among all the customs of warfare and of the use of arms there neither is, nor has been, any single custom; for some use long distance missiles, as, for example, bowmen and slingers and javelin-throwers, whereas others use close-fighting arms, as, for example, those who use sword, or outstretched spear; for the spear is used in two ways, one in hand-to-hand combat and the other for hurling like a javelin; just as the pike serves both purposes, for it can be used both in close combat and as a missile for hurling, which is also true of the sarissa and the hyssus.

τηλεβόλοις: καὶ γὰρ δὴ καὶ τῶν πολεμικῶν ἐθῶν καὶ τῶν ὁπλισμῶν οὐχ ἓν οὔτ᾽ ἔστιν οὔτ᾽ ἦν ἔθος: ἀλλ᾽ οἱ μὲν τηλεβόλοις χρῶνται, καθάπερ οἱ τοξόται καὶ οἱ σφενδονῆται καὶ οἱ ἀκοντισταί, οἱ δ᾽ ἀγχεμάχοις, καθάπερ οἱ ξίφει καὶ δόρατι τῷ ὀρεκτῷ χρώμενοι: διττὴ γὰρ ἡ τῶν δοράτων χρῆσις, ἡ μὲν ἐκ χειρὸς ἡ δ᾽ ὡς παλτοῖς, καθάπερ καὶ ὁ κοντὸς ἀμφοτέρας τὰς χρείας ἀποδίδωσι: καὶ γὰρ συστάδην ... καὶ κοντοβολούντων: ὅπερ καὶ ἡ σάρισσα δύναται καὶ ὁ ὑσσός.

So hyssos is the Greek word for pilum, but it doesn't tell me anything about the hasta.

I shortened it because it wasn't relevant. Soldiers armed with hasta (early hastati, triarii) only carried hasta itself. Soldiers which carried three or even just two spears were equipped exclusively with javelins, not with thrusting spears (though javelins could be used as such if needed). That was my point: fact that Unsullied have multiple spears each means that they are not equipped with anything like Swiss pike.

[Morte]

1 minute ago, Aldarion said:

I shortened it because it wasn't relevant. Soldiers armed with hasta (early hastati, triarii) only carried hasta itself.

Only until the reforms of Marius.

2 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Soldiers which carried three or even just two spears were equipped exclusively with javelins, not with thrusting spears (though javelins could be used as such if needed).

Only until the reforms of Marius (you mean the velites).

5 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

That was my point: fact that Unsullied have multiple spears each means that they are not equipped with anything like Swiss pike.

Well, from what we know, they at least carry a "short" hasta, a spear around 2-2,5m length (but keep in mind that we don't know the length of the spear, nor do we know if this is the only thrusting spear the Unsullied know, it could easily be retconned, if needed).