Ygritte's Shades

[Frey family reunion]

On 6/23/2020 at 9:03 PM, corbon said:

This one is illogical I'm afraid. 
The reason they were searching for the horn in the first place was to find a way past the wall and get away from the Others. 
The Others were not released from the graves, they were already being fought and slowly lost to when Mance was uniting the wildlings, before they even began searching the graves.

Ygritte sure seemed to think that the plan was to use the Horn to bring the Wall down.

Quote

Ygritte watched them struggle for a while. “I hate this Wall,” she said in a low angry voice. “Can you feel how cold it is?”

“It’s made of ice,” Jon pointed out. “You know nothing, Jon Snow. This wall is made o’ blood.”

 

Quote

“Not for fear!” She kicked savagely at the ice beneath her with a heel, chopping out a chunk. “I’m crying because we never found the Horn of Winter. We opened half a hundred graves and let all those shades loose in the world, and never found the Horn of Joramun to bring this cold thing down!”

If she was primarily concerned about getting away from the White Walkers, that’s an odd thing for her to be upset about.

ETA: I suppose Mance does address this issue:

Quote

He touched the horn again. “If I sound the Horn of Winter, the Wall will fall. Or so the songs would have me believe. There are those among my people who want nothing more …”

“But once the Wall is fallen,” Dalla said, “what will stop the Others?”

So I guess was the rallying cry that Mance gave the wildlings, that he would help them escape from the White Walkers or that he would help them demolish the Wall ?  Or was it some of both?

ETA again: If you just look at Ygrain’s complaint it kind of reads like the reason that they dug up the graves in the valley was to find the Horn of Joramun so they could bring the Wall down.  But they failed to find the Horn and only succeeded in letting loose the White Walkers.  Which would imply that when they first made base camp Ygritte at least was unaware of the White Walkers.  Now it is very possible that Mance was aware of the White Walkers but kept this info from most of the wildlings.  And when the attacks started to happen, the wildlings unaware made the leap that they caused the appearance of the White Walkers because they dug up the graves.

[corbon]

1 minute ago, Frey family reunion said:

Ygritte sure seemed to think that the plan was to use the Horn to bring the Wall down.

Ygritte wasn't in the know. Dalla explained that better. She was in the know.
Its clear that most of the wildlings thought that was the plan.
Its also clear that Mance was smarter.

I may also be infected by show dialogue here.  Which doesn't invalidate the point that the white walkers had been around and the wildings had been fighting them for a long time while the wildling host assembling at the Milkwater and digging up graves was a recent phenomenon.

1 minute ago, Frey family reunion said:

If she was primarily concerned about getting away from the White Walkers, that’s an odd thing for her to be upset about.

Again, Ygritte wasn't in the know. Simple girl, simple plan.
The walkers are driving us south, we need to get past the wall or we die, blow it down and march south.

Its clear this is what Mance told the wildlings. No doubt it helped convince some of them to go south, march to the wall in the first place. Its not at all clear that was his real plan. Dalla indicates otherwise, so does Mance. 

[Frey family reunion]

6 minutes ago, corbon said:

Ygritte wasn't in the know. Dalla explained that better. She was in the know.
Its clear that most of the wildlings thought that was the plan.
Its also clear that Mance was smarter.

I may also be infected by show dialogue here.  Which doesn't invalidate the point that the white walkers had been around and the wildings had been fighting them for a long time while the wildling host assembling at the Milkwater and digging up graves was a recent phenomenon.

Again, Ygritte wasn't in the know. Simple girl, simple plan.
The walkers are driving us south, we need to get past the wall or we die, blow it down and march south.

Its clear this is what Mance told the wildlings. No doubt it helped convince some of them to go south, march to the wall in the first place. Its not at all clear that was his real plan. Dalla indicates otherwise, so does Mance. 

I think I addressed that when I edited my post.  I suppose it’s possible that Mance convinced many of the wildlings to help him locate the horn with the promise that he would bring down their hated Wall.

Mance kept from them any knowledge of the emergence of the White Walkers.  

During their stay they started receiving or hearing word of White Walker attacks which those not in the know assumed were because they dug up the graves.

At some point Mance convinced them it was time to go, that the Horn wasn’t there and they needed to get out of Dodge.

 And either Mance had actually found the Horn (unlikely) but didn’t want the wildlings to know because they would expect him to bring the Wall down, or Mance brought in a substitute Horn so he could try and convince the Night’s Watch to let them pass.  Or else the Horn’s true purpose and magic is something entirely different.

[kissdbyfire]

21 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

think I addressed that when I edited my post.  I suppose it’s possible that Mance convinced many of the wildlings to help him locate the horn with the promise that he would bring down their hated Wall.
 

If they bring down the Wall, the WWs will come to the south (everything south of the wall is south). I think Mance’s idea was much simpler and straightforward: let’s find the horn and demand passage; if the NW denies us, we’ll use it. Tbh, I’m not convinced Mance actually believes the real horn Would do that, let alone a fake. 

Quote

Mance kept from them any knowledge of the emergence of the White Walkers.  
 

How??? Only Mance knew? Only his inner circle? I don’t think this makes much sense.

 

Quote

During their stay they started receiving or hearing word of White Walker attacks which those not in the know assumed were because they dug up the graves.

I disagree. I think it’s pure superstition thinking it had anything to do w/ all the digging they did. And again, I don’t see how some men in Mance’s host know about the WWs, and others don’t.

21 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

At some point Mance convinced them it was time to go, that the Horn wasn’t there and they needed to get out of Dodge.
 

No, because Tormund specifically tells Jon that they found a horn and that he thinks it’s just a plain old horn. That can still be used to threaten the NW.

Quote

 And either Mance had actually found the Horn (unlikely) but didn’t want the wildlings to know because they would expect him to bring the Wall down, or Mance brought in a substitute Horn so he could try and convince the Night’s Watch to let them pass.  Or else the Horn’s true purpose and magic is something entirely different.

1st option makes no sense to me. Second is possible, and the third is possible in two ways: 1) Mance found the right horn but its purpose is different or it needs certain things to work. And 2) Mance found A horn, but the real HoW is the one Ghost found and is now w/ Sam. 

[corbon]

4 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think I addressed that when I edited my post.  I suppose it’s possible that Mance convinced many of the wildlings to help him locate the horn with the promise that he would bring down their hated Wall.

Yeah - hard for both of us when we are simultaneously writing.

4 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Mance kept from them any knowledge of the emergence of the White Walkers.  

I don't see any evidence of this. Mance fought the white walkers for a long time - with other wildings.

Its also worth pointing out, yet again, that Ygritte doesn't claim that the released the 'walkers' from the graves. Thats a reader's inference only, the reader choosing to believe that Ygritte uses the term shades to mean "walkers" (who are not shades) eve though she uses it in the exact same cultural context as everyone else - shades being spirits of the dead, incorporeal remains of humans. Whereas the white walkers are corporeal and inhuman.

4 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

During their stay they started receiving or hearing word of White Walker attacks which those not in the know assumed were because they dug up the graves.

I don't see any evidence of this either.

4 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

At some point Mance convinced them it was time to go, that the Horn wasn’t there and they needed to get out of Dodge.

They thought they had the Horn.
Mance, Tormund and probably others knew it wasn't. But most 'common' wildlings would have thought they had the Horn of Joramun

4 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

 And either Mance had actually found the Horn (unlikely) but didn’t want the wildlings to know because they would expect him to bring the Wall down, or Mance brought in a substitute Horn so he could try and convince the Night’s Watch to let them pass.  Or else the Horn’s true purpose and magic is something entirely different.

They found another horn. In a giants grave. That looked suitably impressive.

[corbon]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

If they bring down the Wall, the WWs will come to the south (everything south of the wall is south). I think Mance’s idea was much simpler and straightforward: let’s find the horn and demand passage; of the NW denies us, we’ll use it. Tbh, I’m not convinced Mance actually believes the real horn Would do that, let alone a fake. 

No, its clear the bulk of the wildlings believed the horn was to take down the wall. We have Tormund saying he'd use it so, and we have Mel publicly destroying it with the claim that Mance told them it would bring down the wall.

Quote

Lady Melisandre watched him rise. "FREE FOLK! Here stands your king of lies. And here is the horn he promised would bring down the Wall." Two queen's men brought forth the Horn of Joramun, black and banded with old gold, eight feet long from end to end. 

I don't think she'd be saying that, in that way, if he'd not promised them it would (and planned to not need that unless desperate).

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

How??? Only Mance knew? Only his inner circle? I don’t think this makes much sense.

 

Agreed.

Its simple really. Nothing in what Ygritte says about digging up the graves is actually tied to the White Walkers. The 'shades' are just the spirits of the dead, same as the First Men (culturally similar) Starks believe. She cried because they are desperate and frustrated and the one 'act' that they have been positively doing has achieved nothing.

[John Suburbs]

On 8/29/2020 at 2:54 PM, kissdbyfire said:

The quote you provided does nothing to support your claim. 
And now I’ll ask for textual support for something else: where did I say the fisherfolk near Eastwatch saw the WWs years ago and only now Mormont brought it up? Don’t bother looking for it, I never said that. 

You sited the sightings near Eastwatch as proof that the walkers were active before Mance started opening graves. My question remains, where is your evidence for this? Where is your text that states when these sightings occurred and that this was before the graves were opened.

You also state that the graves were not opened until Mance had marched all of his people into the Frostfangs. Where is your text that supports this?

Show me the text that disproves the notion that Mance quit the NW perhaps 8-10 years ago and that he started opening graves right away looking for the weapon that would destroy his enemy, the NW. And then show me further text that proves the Others were active before this time.

I am merely proposing all of this as one of many possibilities. Since you are the one who claims that the text is crystal clear on all of this and no other explanation is possible, the burden is on you to prove it. Sorry.

[kissdbyfire]

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

You sited the sightings near Eastwatch as proof that the walkers were active before Mance started opening graves. My question remains, where is your evidence for this? Where is your text that states when these sightings occurred and that this was before the graves were opened.

You also state that the graves were not opened until Mance had marched all of his people into the Frostfangs. Where is your text that supports this?

Show me the text that disproves the notion that Mance quit the NW perhaps 8-10 years ago and that he started opening graves right away looking for the weapon that would destroy his enemy, the NW. And then show me further text that proves the Others were active before this time.

I am merely proposing all of this as one of many possibilities. Since you are the one who claims that the text is crystal clear on all of this and no other explanation is possible, the burden is on you to prove it. Sorry.

The text is up thread, in one of my earlier replies, w/ quotes in chronological order, AGoT, ACoK, ASoS. 
So, again: Mormont tells Tyrion WWs have been spotted near Eastwatch in AGoT; Mormont has a convo w/ Wythers, Locke, Buckwell, Smallwood while waiting for Qhorin Halfhand where he says the Free Folk will come down from the heights towards the Milkwater soon - that’s in ACoK. And then in ASoS we have Jon telling maester Aemon about the graves the free folk opened along the Milkwater. 
 

And I’ll add something else. Ygritte tells Jon about Longspear breaking the arm of the guy who tried to steal her. Ygritte is ~ 3 years older than Jon, so roughly 18. And up until a few years back, she and Longspear were still living in their village. Ygritte took part in digging up graves along the Milkwater. So, no, Mance hasn’t been digging it up for 8 years or whatever.

I’m done here. The memories of endless discussions about the poison being in the pie and Tyrion being the target are still too vivid in my mind. To put it differently, I’m not gonna convince you, and you are not going to convince me.

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, corbon said:

The Others have been active for many years. Craster and his sacrifices prove that.

There are no references to 'crypts' north of the wall. Zero. The wildlings are digging up graves, not defiling crypts. There is no indication of any type that this is not a recent thing too.

I don't think his goal was stated. All he did at the start was make peace between factions and accrue power.

He doesn't want to destroy the wall. He wants to get over it.
I don't see any evidence he ever intended to actually blow the Horn and destroy the wall, only that it was a possible blackmail plan - he was trying anything and everything.
And to back that up - it was all a bluff anyway. They didn't actually find the real Horn of Joramund, at least, not that they thought.

 

You yourself pointed out that it took Mance years to assemble his host. And his host could not survive long assembled - North of the wall is not capable of sustaining that sort of population density for any significant amount of time. 
In other words, it took him years to assemble it and once assembled he moved it more or less immediately. (I expect much of the 'assembly' early on was in the form of promises and allegiances to move when the time came).

But the Others have been active for years too.

This is purely invented by you.
Ygritte is part of the wilding host that dug up the graves. There is nothing anywhere that remotely suggests that Mance had a crew there digging years and years back before he had assembled any significant following.
Its the host that we see digging and no evidence or suggestion of previous activity before the host assembled.

The whole movement of the host southwards has been given urgency and necessity by the White Walkers.
Yes, Mance was coalescing power early on, but that didn't mean he was doing anything more than a standard push for power for normal reasons. 

Agreed.

Yet, despite this 'recent development' Mance has a great deal of experience fighting the dead - despite the wildings having suffered no attacks 'lately' (because the host of the dead was going after the Rangers at the FotFM).

 

Because there are few walkers and they have mostly been much further north (and on the west side of further north). The rangers range closer to the wall (relatively) for the most part. The Walkers originate in the Lands-of-Always-Winter far north and northwest and although they seem to have had 'scouts' further south from a long time ago their 'military' actions have been in a north/northwest-south/southeast direction. Hence the NW is not affected by their military actions until very late in the timeline.

Because the bulk of the Walker activity was further north (and west) than that before. Look at the map!

Because they've been pushed out of the very far north now.

Basic map reading will answer that for you.

There is textual evidence that the White Walkers have been active for years - which means they were active before the Wildling host assembled at

None I can see at all.

 

Sorry, but your head-canon is getting in the way of the facts at just about every turn here.

Craster has likely been sacrificing his sons to the wood for many years, but this in no way implies that the Others have been taking them. Any newborn left out in that environment is not going to make it through the night, due to exposure, wild animals, etc. And we have it from Gilly that the appearance of white walkers is a very recent event:

Quote

"He gives the boys to the gods. Come the white cold, he does, and of late it comes more often. That's why he started giving them sheep, even though he has a taste for mutton. Only now the sheep's gone too. Next it will be dogs, till . . ."

So from this we can see a number of things: Craster only started giving the boys to the gods "come the white cold" and the white cold is more prevalent "of late." So before that, the boys were not going to the cold gods, but merely the wood. Also, Craster has only recently started putting out sheep for the gods, which he wasn't doing prior to this. So the recent appearance of cold gods in and around Craster's keep has caused him to change his behavior, which wouldn't be the case if the cold gods had been around for "many years."

Crypts, graves, whatever. They were messing with ancient burial sites, and supposedly the magic they contained.

Mance deserted the NW and began to assemble a wildling force to overthrow the order and bring down their wall. If Mance knew for certain way back than that the Others were about, than it's a safe bet that other rangers would know it too, or that ranging parties were disappearing. But all of that started happening very recently, within the last year. So why does Mance and Mance alone know that the Others are back, and why doesn't he bring this proof of their existence to the watch?

If he doesn't want to destroy the wall, then why is he looking for the horn? That's all the horn does. It is powerless against the Others. And no, they didn't find the real horn, but that's what they were looking for.

So Mance cobbled together this mass of humanity somewhere else and then marched it into the Frostfangs to look for the horn? Nonsense. If that was the case, then there would be no question as to where Mance was. There would be a trail of destruction a mile wide right through the Haunted Forest. Even a novice ranger could not fail to see it.

The far more likely scenario is that Mance set himself up in the Frostfangs first, because that was where he thought he could find the super weapon that could bring him victory. Over time, he gathered more followers as more clans joined his cause, but only in the recent past did the mass migration begin -- the wildling villages are all only recently abandoned. And the reason for this is the sudden appearance of walkers and wights, which would have occurred after the graves were opened because that action was precipitated by Mance's initial desire: to overthrow the watch.

Please, show me the text that says the Others have been active for years. I'm dying to read it, but nobody can point me to it.

You think Mance quit the NW and the next day he had 500,000 wildling followers? And only now, maybe 8-10 years later, rangers have noticed people leaving their homes to join him?

Where does Ygritte say "the host" dug up all these graves? Here is her exact quote:

Quote

"Not for fear!" She kicked savagely at the ice beneath her with a heel, chopping out a chunk. "I'm crying because we never found the Horn of Winter. We opened half hundred graves and let all those shades loose in the world, and never found the Horn of Joramun to bring this cold thing down."

This is the only time she mentions any of this, AFIK, and nowhere do I see the word "host" here. And where do we see the host itself doing any digging? Sorry Corb, but again I think your head canon is causing you to see things that just aren't there.

Yes, the movement southward is precipitated by the walkers and the wights. And this movement only began in the very recent past. If the walkers had been active for years, long before Mance had assembled his army, then any wildling with half a brain would want to move south, not north to where the danger lies. Becoming a kneeler is far more preferable to becoming a wight. But if enough people began assembling in the north because it now offered a chance to be safe without kneeling, then that's what a sensible wildling would do.

Exactly, Mance's coalescing of power was a standard push for power for normal reasons, not because there was a supernatural presence in the north that had been around for many years anyway.

Um, the wildling host was being bled by the wights and Others all along. Mance saw them, Tormund saw them. The idea that they are only targeting the NW is factually incorrect.

Quote

"Blood," said Mance Rayder. "I'd win in the end, yes, but you'd bleed me, and my people have bled enough."

"Your losses haven't been that heavy."

"Not at your hands." Mance studied Jon's face. "You saw the Fist of the First Men. You know what happened there. You know what we're up against."

So the wildling losses have been worse than both the Fist and the Battle at the Wall.

How do you know how many walkers there are? Maybe there are a few, maybe there are thousands. Once thing is certain, though, the wights are numerous and becoming more so every day.

If the walkers are only way to the north, then how does Mance suddenly become aware of their existence? Why does he suddenly take it upon himself to rescue the entire wildling population, and why does he waste his time way up north looking for a mythological weapon that has no affect on either walkers or wights? Sorry, Corb, but your timeline is completely out of whack. The logical sequence of events is that Mance deserted, started looking for the horn in order to defeat the NW, the Others/wights started appearing, which proved to be the catalyst to unify the wildling clans, and they marched on the Wall once they achieved sufficient strength and could no longer hold out in the Frostfangs. In this far more rationale timeline, it is quite possible, and highly probably (but still far from certain), that the search for the horn triggered the Others' reawakening somehow.

Rangers range far to the north, as far as necessary to capture their quarry. Sometimes they are gone for weeks at a time. AIR, it was only in response to disappearing rangers that Mormon restricted the rangings.

Again, where is all this textual evidence you speak of? Craster? A rudimentary read shows you that the appearance of the cold gods is very recent. The "host" digging for the horn? That doesn't exist. The number of walkers and the scope of their actions? That's your theory; there is no evidence of this at all. Mind you, I'm not saying you're wrong, just that this is far from conclusively proven by the text. The timeline for all of these events is uncertain, so there is no way to say definitively what occurred first. But we can draw some rough conclusions based on the motivations of the key players at given times. And since there is zero evidence, none whatsoever, that the Others were active until very recently, the most logical conclusion that we can draw at this point is that Mance was looking for the horn to destroy the NW, not rescue wildlings from the Others.

 

[Frey family reunion]

19 hours ago, corbon said:

I don't see any evidence of this. Mance fought the white walkers for a long time - with other wildings.

Its also worth pointing out, yet again, that Ygritte doesn't claim that the released the 'walkers' from the graves. Thats a reader's inference only, the reader choosing to believe that Ygritte uses the term shades to mean "walkers" (who are not shades) eve though she uses it in the exact same cultural context as everyone else - shades being spirits of the dead, incorporeal remains of humans. Whereas the white walkers are corporeal and inhuman.

I guess.  Assuming how much of what Mance told Jon is actually true.  When Jon was with the wildlings there seemed to be very little discussion of the White Walkers.  Which is strange.  Instead Jon seems to believe that Mance used his charm and negotiation tactics to bring all these disparate groups together with the goal of striking the South.  No real discussion of coming together for mutual protection against the White Walkers.

There is also no evidence at their base camp that they have been suffering from casaulties from the White Walkers.  

Ygritte never really seems to bring the White Walkers up either.  Outside of her admonition to Jon to burn her body if she died so she doesn't rise back up.  Ygritte even at this late date seems upset that they failed to find the Horn so they can bring the Wall down.

I suppose you could argue that Ygritte doesn't put 2 + 2 together and realize that the Wall would be needed to protect her and her people from the White Walkers.

And yes, I suppose that when Ygritte speaks of shades she may not be referring to the White Walkers.  But it seems awfully coincidental that Ygritte seems to think they unleashed shades upon the world at the same time that the White Walkers start striking wildling villages in full.  And with all the discussion of them coming out of thin air, I'm not sure the White Walkers are always corporeal.  It's passing strange that when struck with the dagger one of them dissolved in thin air.  That's not terribly corporeal.  It's a bit of an inference, I agree.  It's just an inference that I'm pretty comfortable with.

I also don't agree that we can assume that Mance has been fighting these things for any specific length of time.  At least not some time much greater than the time prior to him assembling his host.  We just don't have enough info there.  

[Seams]

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Ygritte never really seems to bring the White Walkers up either. 

It might be worth going back to re-read Ygritte's retelling of the Gendel and Gorne story that occurs almost immediately after she meets Jon.

She tells him that Old Nan's version of the tale differs from the Free Folk version. In Nan's telling, Gendel died; in the wildling version, he lived and led his people into the tunnels where their descendants live by attacking people who wander too close, looking for Gorne's Way.

The tunnels range as far south as Winterfell, under The Wall and north into the Beyond the Wall area. The sound of the voices of Gendel's followers can be heard in the caves - could the voices be the real horn sound that could bring down the Wall?

Maybe Mance's efforts to find the horn didn't trigger the White Walkers. Maybe Gendel's descendants are the White Walkers and they just finally found their way out of the tunnels.

Another (literary, ironic) source of information about the White Walkers might come from Tyrion's offer to provide shovels to Aliser Thorne when he travels to King's Landing to ask for more men for the Night's Watch and to show the animated hand of the wight. The wight's hand has apparently died after Ser Aliser was kept waiting before being granted an audience with Tyrion. Tyrion laughs and says the Night's Watch should learn how to bury their dead. The reader already knows that burying does not stop reanimation of White Walker victims (cremation and shadowcats cracking their bones seem to be the known "cures"). Tyrion's reference to gravedigging may help to clarify Ygritte's description of gravedigging and the release of shades.

[corbon]

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but your head-canon is getting in the way of the facts

That can happen, I don;t believe it is here. Is yours?

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Craster has likely been sacrificing his sons to the wood for many years, but this in no way implies that the Others have been taking them. Any newborn left out in that environment is not going to make it through the night, due to exposure, wild animals, etc.

I agree, but thats not what happens...

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

And we have it from Gilly that the appearance of white walkers is a very recent event:

Quote

"He gives the boys to the gods. Come the white cold, he does, and of late it comes more often. That's why he started giving them sheep, even though he has a taste for mutton. Only now the sheep's gone too. Next it will be dogs, till . . ."

So from this we can see a number of things: Craster only started giving the boys to the gods "come the white cold" and the white cold is more prevalent "of late." So before that, the boys were not going to the cold gods, but merely the wood.

No. It does not say or mean that.
He gives the boys to the gods. I think too, originally it was just a fake sacrifice to get rid of potential future rivals (and mouths to feed). But he does do it when the whit cold comes. It comes more often of late, not newly of late. The Words say it (Walkers) came before, years before, but they come more often more recently - so often that he doesn't always have sons and has taken to sacrificing sheep sometimes now. 

Your own quote shows that the walkers came 'before' even though they come 'more often' recently.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Also, Craster has only recently started putting out sheep for the gods, which he wasn't doing prior to this. So the recent appearance of cold gods in and around Craster's keep has caused him to change his behavior, which wouldn't be the case if the cold gods had been around for "many years."

No, They have been coming for years, just more recently they've been coming more often, so he has to use sheep due to lack of sons. His behavioural change is due to their frequency of visit changing not due to there being a 'new phenomenon' of them appearing. 

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Mance deserted the NW and began to assemble a wildling force to overthrow the order and bring down their wall. If Mance knew for certain way back than that the Others were about,

I don't think he did initially, and am not arguing he did initially. But its something he became aware of long before the NW and before he rderd the wildlings to congregate at the Milkwater

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

than it's a safe bet that other rangers would know it too, or that ranging parties were disappearing.

No it is not. The rangers and their ranging parties operate much further south than Mance, who travelled very far north to places the rangers rarely if ever visit, such as Thenn, and the Ice Rivers.
Heck, there is a Ranger, Redwyn, who ranged to Lorn Point on teh frozen shore. And it was notable enough a thing to record it in an account. I doubt the rangers range even that far nowdays.  We don't even know where that is for sure, but my best guess is its either the west-most point of the peninsular that just into the Bay of Ice or the southernmost point of the peninsular that just south toward Bear Island and defines the end of the Bay of Ice.
I doubt any ranger has been further west than that, to the Ice river and beyond, for a hundred years or more. Or as far North as Thenn.

So no, it is by no means a safe bet that the NW knows things happening in the very far north and west that Mance knows.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

But all of that started happening very recently, within the last year. So why does Mance and Mance alone know that the Others are back, and why doesn't he bring this proof of their existence to the watch?

Not Mance alone. Many or even most of the wildlings know. They've learned the hard way. They know to burn the dead, even though the graves show thats not the usual cultural custom.

First, he can;t 'go to the watch' because he's  a deserter.
Second, the watch would never believe him.

It took the smashing of the Watch on the Fist of the First Men for them to truly understand what was happening.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

If he doesn't want to destroy the wall, then why is he looking for the horn? That's all the horn does. It is powerless against the Others. And no, they didn't find the real horn, but that's what they were looking for.

Any number of reasons.
It provides something for people to do while they congregate.
It gives them hope. Or a focus.
it may provide a bargaining chip to the NW.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

So Mance cobbled together this mass of humanity somewhere else and then marched it into the Frostfangs to look for the horn? Nonsense.

Agreed. Nonsense.
He cobbled together an alliance. Then he got them to come together at the Milkwater as a precursur to heading south together - one of the few places in the north capable of holding a great host (there is a valley there, with a lake), and a natural starting point to come out from the Frostfangs - as the ranger leadership recognised.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

If that was the case, then there would be no question as to where Mance was. There would be a trail of destruction a mile wide right through the Haunted Forest. Even a novice ranger could not fail to see it.

Err, the Haunted Forest is south and east of the Frostfangs. The wildlings congregate at the Milkwater first (many, most probably, of them coming from parts further north or west), then they will head south/southeast through the Haunted Forest. But they hadn;t done it at that stage, so you swathe of destruction hasn;t happened yet.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

The far more likely scenario is that Mance set himself up in the Frostfangs first, because that was where he thought he could find the super weapon that could bring him victory.

He doesn;t believ in a super weapon that will bring him victory.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Over time, he gathered more followers as more clans joined his cause,

Why? Why would wildlings sign up with some ex-crow squatting at the Milkwater?
Mance went to them. He negotiated. He made peace. He fought duels and killed rivals.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

but only in the recent past did the mass migration begin -- the wildling villages are all only recently abandoned.

Agreed.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

And the reason for this is the sudden appearance of walkers and wights, which would have occurred after the graves were opened because that action was precipitated by Mance's initial desire: to overthrow the watch.

No such desire is indicated. 
I agree with the reason though - they congregate now because the Whalkers are pushing out from the Land of Always Winter and are gaining strength with every time the Wildlings fight - win or lose.
The White walkers were there before, but rarely, and more secretively. As Craster's evidence shows.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Please, show me the text that says the Others have been active for years. I'm dying to read it, but nobody can point me to it.

You pointed to it. 

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

You think Mance quit the NW and the next day he had 500,000 wildling followers?

the only one suggesting such a stupid straw man is you.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

And only now, maybe 8-10 years later, rangers have noticed people leaving their homes to join him?

Nobody was leaving their homes. Until very recently.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Where does Ygritte say "the host" dug up all these graves? Here is her exact quote:

This is the only time she mentions any of this, AFIK, and nowhere do I see the word "host" here. And where do we see the host itself doing any digging? Sorry Corb, but again I think your head canon is causing you to see things that just aren't there.

Afraid not. But thanks for the projection. 

Quote

A vast blue-white wall plugged one end of the vale, squeezing between the mountains as if it had shouldered them aside, and for a moment he thought he had dreamed himself back to Castle Black. Then he realized he was looking at a river of ice several thousand feet high. Under that glittering cold cliff was a great lake, its deep cobalt waters reflecting the snowcapped peaks that ringed it. There were men down in the valley, he saw now; many men, thousands, a huge host. Some were tearing great holes in the half-frozen ground, while others trained for war. He watched as a swarming mass of riders charged a shield wall, astride horses no larger than ants. The sound of their mock battle was a rustling of steel leaves, drifting faintly on the wind. Their encampment had no plan to it; he saw no ditches, no sharpened stakes, no neat rows of horse lines. Everywhere crude earthen shelters and hide tents sprouted haphazardly, like a pox on the face of the earth. He spied untidy mounds of hay, smelled goats and sheep, horses and pigs, dogs in great profusion. Tendrils of dark smoke rose from a thousand cookfires.

The host is there and they are digging great holes in the ground.
They also can't have been there too long. There is no agriculture and too many people to be supported by hunting for any length of time and thousands of cookfires with little wood. The camp is crude, temporary, recent.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Yes, the movement southward is precipitated by the walkers and the wights. And this movement only began in the very recent past.

Agreed.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

If the walkers had been active for years,

Not militarily in great significance. At least not this far south and east. 
No doubt the northern and/or western-most clans and peoples have been fighting (and bleeding) the longest. And some not at all yet perhaps. And probably the nrothern and western-most clans held their own for a time. 
But every battle or skirmish won, decreases the wildling forces and increase the WW forces. Over time the pressure becomes too much.

The Host of the dead isn't created overnight, in the sparsely populated regions North of the Wall. It builds. Over time. 

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

long before Mance had assembled his army, then any wildling with half a brain would want to move south, not north to where the danger lies. Becoming a kneeler is far more preferable to becoming a wight. But if enough people began assembling in the north because it now offered a chance to be safe without kneeling, then that's what a sensible wildling would do.

Riiight. Because its not ever human nature to ignore or reduce the importance of a small threat that isn't having much impact, in favour of continuing the ways of one's forefathers and keeping one's homeland.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Exactly, Mance's coalescing of power was a standard push for power for normal reasons, not because there was a supernatural presence in the north that had been around for many years anyway.

Agreed. 

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Um, the wildling host was being bled by the wights and Others all along. Mance saw them, Tormund saw them. The idea that they are only targeting the NW is factually incorrect.

I didn't say, or suggest, they were only targeting the NW. I'm the one arguing that the wildlings were being bled for some time - before they assembled at the Milkwater even, for some.
I pointed out that Mance says that recently they'd suffered no attacks (the WW had shifted focus to the NW which lead to the battle at the FotFM.)
And that despite that lack of recent attacks, Mance has long and bitter experience fighting the dead. So obviously they are not a super-recent phenomenon.

Quote

ASoS Jon II

He gazed up at the darkening sky and said, "The crows may have helped us more than they know. I'd wondered why we'd suffered no attacks. But there's still a hundred leagues to go, and the cold is rising. Varamyr, send your wolves sniffing after the wights, I won't have them taking us unawares. My Lord of Bones, double all the patrols, and make certain every man has torch and flint. Styr, Jarl, you ride at first light."

 

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

If the walkers are only way to the north, then how does Mance suddenly become aware of their existence?

They are not only way to the north - any longer. They started there, thats their acknowledged home. And from there' when they start pushing south and southeast, who is going to feel the results first?
The most northerly and westerly wildlings of course. Whom Mance has been collecting allegiances of. Of course they will tell him.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Why does he suddenly take it upon himself to rescue the entire wildling population,

He's made himself their king, it is his responsibility.
Its also the only choice he has. He can;t exactly go back to the Watch and say "sorry I deserted, can I get across the wall please", can he?

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

and why does he waste his time way up north looking for a mythological weapon that has no affect on either walkers or wights?

Its not 'way up north' in wildling terms. Its relatively central, even relatively close to the wall for many wildlings and one of probably very few suitable spots.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, Corb, but your timeline is completely out of whack. The logical sequence of events is that Mance deserted, started looking for the horn in order to defeat the NW, the Others/wights started appearing, which proved to be the catalyst to unify the wildling clans, and they marched on the Wall once they achieved sufficient strength and could no longer hold out in the Frostfangs. In this far more rationale timeline, it is quite possible, and highly probably (but still far from certain), that the search for the horn triggered the Others' reawakening somehow.

Well, the facts say otherwise.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Rangers range far to the north, as far as necessary to capture their quarry. Sometimes they are gone for weeks at a time. AIR, it was only in response to disappearing rangers that Mormon restricted the rangings.

Weeks at a time might get you to the Skirling Pass, the Fist of the First Men, or the headwaters of the Antler River maybe. 
Make an arc of those three locations on the map.
Then look at exactly how much other space there is further away. How far to Thenn?

The Rangers range over a tiny portion of North of the Wall, just the nearest bit to the Wall itself. A ranger like Redwyn makes a name, by going further.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

Again, where is all this textual evidence you speak of? Craster? A rudimentary read shows you that the appearance of the cold gods is very recent.

Rudimentary . I agree. A competent read shows the opposite.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

The "host" digging for the horn? That doesn't exist.

Well, not in your mind, sure. 
But its right there in the text.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

The number of walkers and the scope of their actions? That's your theory; there is no evidence of this at all. Mind you, I'm not saying you're wrong, just that this is far from conclusively proven by the text.

It fits precisely with the text though, unlike your ideas.

On 9/1/2020 at 4:17 AM, John Suburbs said:

The timeline for all of these events is uncertain, so there is no way to say definitively what occurred first. But we can draw some rough conclusions based on the motivations of the key players at given times. And since there is zero evidence, none whatsoever, that the Others were active until very recently, the most logical conclusion that we can draw at this point is that Mance was looking for the horn to destroy the NW, not rescue wildlings from the Others.

If you actually use the data we are given, I'm afraid not.

[broken one]

wildings escape from the others, that is why they want to get south of the wall en masse, breaking through the gate / being allowed to pass (preferably) or destroying the wall with the horn - only if necessary (worse option). they look for the horn in order to have the ultimate tool and argument to pass. mance would rather not destroy the wall. destroying the wall is desperate movement, as the wildings would lose the great means of defence, but - at least - it would make his people live longer. it is better to die later than sooner, I think it is understandable for every living creature. the rest seems just nitpicking.