The Three I'd Question II: The Shadowcatspaw

[Mourning Star]

This is part two in what I hope is a three-part series looking into what I think are some of the best and most overlooked false identities in A Song of Ice and Fire.

In case you missed part one, I tried to explain why I believe Bloodraven is not the Three Eyed Crow, and how it was Old Nan all along!

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159665-the-three-i%E2%80%99d-question-1-don%E2%80%99t-mistake-the-crow-for-the-conspiracy

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He wondered which of them had sent the footpad to silence the Stark boy, and whether they had truly conspired at the death of Lord Arryn. If the old Hand had been murdered, it was deftly and subtly done. Men of his age died of sudden illness all the time. In contrast, sending some oaf with a stolen knife after Brandon Stark struck him as unbelievably clumsy. And wasn't that peculiar, come to think on it …
Tyrion shivered. Now there was a nasty suspicion. Perhaps the direwolf and the lion were not the only beasts in the woods, and if that was true, someone was using him as a catspaw. 
A Game of Thrones - Tyrion V

Spoiler Alert: “They” (Jaime and Cersei), did not send the Catspaw, nor did they conspire to see Jon Arryn dead, a crime Lady Arryn admits to. After Bran “falls” (is thrown by Jaime) from the tower in Winterfell, and after the King’s party, along with Ned and the rest, leave, an assassin tries to kill Bran, but is stopped by Cat and Summer.

“Who sent this assassin?” is a mystery presented to the reader which has not yet been satisfyingly concluded.

Tyrion himself presents a possibility which many readers have decided must be true, that it was Joffery.

However, as I will present below, I do not think his reasoning is sound, nor does he present any actual evidence to support his suspicion. In addition, I think we are given reason to suspect that Tyrion’s conclusion is wrong, and I would suggest we are presented with a far better candidate who Tyrion was unaware of, and who had the means, motive, and for whom there is hard evidence.

I think it is important to highlight, as Tyrion does in the quote above, that this assassination attempt was both awkwardly clumsy and suspicious. In addition, this quote directs the reader to consider other possibilities besides the Lannisters.

But, before I get to that, I'll address why Tyrion’s theory that Joffery sent the assassin is wrong.

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He remembered a cold morning when he'd climbed down the steep exterior steps from Winterfell's library to find Prince Joffrey jesting with the Hound about killing wolves. Send a dog to kill a wolf, he said. Even Joffrey was not so foolish as to command Sandor Clegane to slay a son of Eddard Stark, however; the Hound would have gone to Cersei. Instead the boy found his catspaw among the unsavory lot of freeriders, merchants, and camp followers who'd attached themselves to the king's party as they made their way north. Some poxy lackwit willing to risk his life for a prince's favor and a little coin. Tyrion wondered whose idea it had been to wait until Robert left Winterfell before opening Bran's throat. Joff's, most like. No doubt he thought it was the height of cunning.

The prince's own dagger had a jeweled pommel and inlaid goldwork on the blade, Tyrion seemed to recall. At least Joff had not been stupid enough to use that. Instead he went poking among his father's weapons. Robert Baratheon was a man of careless generosity, and would have given his son any dagger he wanted . . . but Tyrion guessed that the boy had just taken it. Robert had come to Winterfell with a long tail of knights and retainers, a huge wheelhouse, and a baggage train. No doubt some diligent servant had made certain that the king's weapons went with him, in case he should desire any of them.

The blade Joff chose was nice and plain. No goldwork, no jewels in the hilt, no silver inlay on the blade. King Robert never wore it, had likely forgotten he owned it. Yet the Valyrian steel was deadly sharp . . . sharp enough to slice through skin, flesh, and muscle in one quick stroke. I am no stranger to Valyrian steel. But he had been, hadn't he? Else he would never have been so foolish as to pick Littlefinger's knife.

The why of it still eluded him. Simple cruelty, perhaps? His nephew had that in abundance. It was all Tyrion could do not to retch up all the wine he'd drunk, piss in his breeches, or both. He squirmed uncomfortably. He ought to have held his tongue at breakfast. The boy knows I know now. My big mouth will be the death of me, I swear it.

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VIII

The reader should not overlook the fact that Tyrion is literally piss drunk while coming to this conclusion. As we will see, his memory, logic, and bias all reflect this state.

To start with, Tyrion is wildly misremembering the events of Game of Thrones referenced here."

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I'm off to break my fast. See that you return the books to the shelves. Be gentle with the Valyrian scrolls, the parchment is very dry. Ayrmidon's Engines of War is quite rare, and yours is the only complete copy I've ever seen." Chayle gaped at him, still half-asleep. Patiently, Tyrion repeated his instructions, then clapped the septon on the shoulder and left him to his tasks.

Outside, Tyrion swallowed a lungful of the cold morning air and began his laborious descent of the steep stone steps that corkscrewed around the exterior of the library tower. It was slow going; the steps were cut high and narrow, while his legs were short and twisted. The rising sun had not yet cleared the walls of Winterfell, but the men were already hard at it in the yard below. Sandor Clegane's rasping voice drifted up to him. "The boy is a long time dying. I wish he would be quicker about it."

Tyrion glanced down and saw the Hound standing with young Joffrey as squires swarmed around them. "At least he dies quietly," the prince replied. "It's the wolf that makes the noise. I could scarce sleep last night."

Clegane cast a long shadow across the hard-packed earth as his squire lowered the black helm over his head. "I could silence the creature, if it please you," he said through his open visor. His boy placed a longsword in his hand. He tested the weight of it, slicing at the cold morning air. Behind him, the yard rang to the clangor of steel on steel.

The notion seemed to delight the prince. "Send a dog to kill a dog!" he exclaimed. "Winterfell is so infested with wolves, the Starks would never miss one."

Tyrion hopped off the last step onto the yard. "I beg to differ, nephew," he said. "The Starks can count past six. Unlike some princes I might name."

Joffrey had the grace at least to blush.

"A voice from nowhere," Sandor said. He peered through his helm, looking this way and that. "Spirits of the air!"

A Game of Thrones - Tyrion I

Note that Tyrion is leaving the Winterfell Library and its precious, old, rare, dry, and flammable Valyrian scrolls. The library is burned, “as a distraction”, when the assassin makes his attempt on Bran, and I will return to this important at the end of this post, as I suspect it was more than a distraction.

We also see that not only does Tyrion misquote Joffery’s, “send a dog to kill a dog”, but that Joff is very explicitly talking about killing Summer, Bran’s wolf, and not Bran.

Tyrion reprimands Joffery and insults his intelligence.

Sending an oaf with a stolen knife is clumsy, but lying-in wait and setting up a diversion is not. This is particularly peculiar, since it’s almost like the catspaw and his identifiable dagger were intended to be caught (or at least not cleverly passed off as natural, like Jon Arryn's death or if Bran was to be smothered by a pillow in his sleep)!

When Jaime picks up on Tyrion’s theory that Joffery sent the assassin, we see the same issue of motive highlighted by Cersei.

 

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Jaime suddenly remembered something else that troubled him about Winterfell. “At Riverrun, Catelyn Stark seemed convinced I’d sent some footpad to slit her son’s throat. That I’d given him a dagger.”

“That,” she said scornfully. “Tyrion asked me about that.”

“There was a dagger. The scars on Lady Catelyn’s hands were real enough, she showed them to me. Did you... ?”

“Oh, don’t be absurd.” Cersei closed the window. “Yes, I hoped the boy would die. So did you. Even Robert thought that would have been for the best. ‘We kill our horses when they break a leg, and our dogs when they go blind, but we are too weak to give the same mercy to crippled children’ he told me. He was blind himself at the time, from drink.”

Robert? Jaime had guarded the king long enough to know that Robert Baratheon said things in his cups that he would have denied angrily the next day. “Were you alone when Robert said this?”

“You don’t think he said it to Ned Stark, I hope? Of course we were alone. Us and the children.” Cersei removed her hairnet and draped it over a bedpost, then shook out her golden curls. “Perhaps Myrcella sent this man with the dagger, do you think so?”

It was meant as mockery, but she’d cut right to the heart of it, Jaime saw at once. “Not Myrcella. Joffrey.”

Cersei frowned. “Joffrey had no love for Robb Stark, but the younger boy was nothing to him. He was only a child himself .”

“A child hungry for a pat on the head from that sot you let him believe was his father.” He had an uncomfortable thought. “Tyrion almost died because of this bloody dagger. If he knew the whole thing was Joffrey’s work, that might be why...”

“I don’t care why,” Cersei said. “He can take his reasons down to hell with him.”

A Storm of Swords - Jaime IX

Say what you will about Joffery, but he never showed any interest in seeing Bran dead. Both by his own admission and in the assessment of his mother. Nor did he ever mention or refer to sending the assassin afterwards.

Jaimie’s suggestion that Joffery might have wanted a “pat on the head” from Robert is ridiculous at face value. Not only is there no conceivable way that Joffery would get credit for the assassination attempt even had it been successful, but this is the same child who was punished by Robert for killing a cat.

In addition, he has never shown any inclination toward mercy:

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"My mother bids me let Lord Eddard take the black, and Lady Sansa has begged mercy for her father." He looked straight at Sansa then, and smiled, and for a moment Arya thought that the gods had heard her prayer, until Joffrey turned back to the crowd and said, "But they have the soft hearts of women. So long as I am your king, treason shall never go unpunished. Ser Ilyn, bring me his head!"

A Game of Thrones - Arya V

Remember that Tyrion is also a drunken sot when he concluded that Joffery sent the assassin.

Also, note how Cersei’s golden curls are highlighted here as I’ll come back to the hair details later in the post.

We see Cersei’s bias kick in, and she doesn’t care about why Tyrion killed Joffery (a mistaken conclusion Jaime has also come to), except that Tyrion obviously didn’t kill Joffery, any more than Joffery tried to kill Bran.

The reader should care about "why", if they want to understand what is going on.

Now let’s go back to Tyrion’s quote about the dagger itself.

His initial nonsensical line of thinking is that Joffery didn’t use his own dagger, and instead used a priceless unique dagger that Robert won during Joff’s own name day tournament, presumably while Joffery was in attendance, since it was held in his honor.

Obviously, this makes no sense. Not only is the Valyrian steel dagger arguably more identifiable that Joffery’s own dagger, but Joffery would know this. More importantly, there is no need for a special dagger (or a dagger of any kind) to kill a cripple in a coma! Talking about why one would pick one identifiable dagger over another is missing the forest for the trees. The better question, which we will get to below, is why send a dagger at all.

Tyrion references Joffery’s line, “I am no stranger to Valyrian steel”, and erroneously connects it to the dagger.

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”I am no stranger to Valyrian steel, the boy had boasted. The septons were always going on about how the Father Above judges us all. If the Father would be so good as to topple over and crush Joff like a dung beetle, I might even believe it.”

He ought to have seen it long ago. Jaime would never send another man to do his killing, and Cersei was too cunning to use a knife that could be traced back to her, but Joff, arrogant vicious stupid little wretch that he was . . .

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VIII

Notice the obvious bias on the part of Tyrion regarding Joffery here.

Joffery isn’t a stranger to Valyrian Steel, and there even seems to be a reference for the reader here as to why.

Joffery is familiar with the sharpness of Valyrian Steel because he ordered Ned be killed with Ice, on the steps of the Sept, in the eyes of the Father above.

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"Have a care, Your Grace," Ser Addam Marbrand warned the king. "Valyrian steel is perilously sharp."

"I remember." Joffrey brought Widow's Wail down in a savage two-handed slice, onto the book that Tyrion had given him. The heavy leather cover parted at a stroke. "Sharp! I told you, I am no stranger to Valyrian steel." It took him half a dozen further cuts to hack the thick tome apart, and the boy was breathless by the time he was done. Sansa could feel her husband struggling with his fury as Ser Osmund Kettleblack shouted, "I pray you never turn that wicked edge on me, sire."

A Storm of Swords - Sansa IV

Joffery even demonstrates this by using a two-handed executioners swing with Widow’s Wail on the book Tyrion gave him, imitating Ilyn’s beheading of Ned. It is even literally the same steel, or “wicked edge”!

It should go without saying that Joffery wasn’t in Winterfell for the assassination attempt, nor has he seen Cat’s hands since, and so his comment can’t possibly be about the dagger. Again, Tyrion’s theory makes no sense.

So, while I agree with Tyrion that Joffery is a vicious stupid little wretch, I do not think there is any evidence or compelling reason to think he had anything to do with sending an assassin after Bran.

However, lions are not the only cats in the forest with paws.

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Just don't try and bring down a 'cat," he muttered. Even for a direwolf, that would be dangerous.

A Clash of Kings - Jon VII

Remember Sandor Clegane’s joke above, after the quote about sending a dog to kill a dog? A voice from nowhere? Spirits of the air?

Well as it turns out, there was an “invisible” guest in Winterfell, a shadowcat, Mance Rayder.

Sorry for the length of the quote, but I do think there are a lot of important details here:

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"The Wall can stop an army, but not a man alone. I took a lute and a bag of silver, scaled the ice near Long Barrow, walked a few leagues south of the New Gift, and bought a horse. All in all I made much better time than Robert, who was traveling with a ponderous great wheelhouse to keep his queen in comfort. A day south of Winterfell I came up on him and fell in with his company. Freeriders and hedge knights are always attaching themselves to royal processions, in hopes of finding service with the king, and my lute gained me easy acceptance." He laughed. "I know every bawdy song that's ever been made, north or south of the Wall.

So there you are. The night your father feasted Robert, I sat in the back of his hall on a bench with the other freeriders, listening to Orland of Oldtown play the high harp and sing of dead kings beneath the sea. I betook of your lord father's meat and mead, had a look at Kingslayer and Imp . . . and made passing note of Lord Eddard's children and the wolf pups that ran at their heels."

"Bael the Bard," said Jon, remembering the tale that Ygritte had told him in the Frostfangs, the night he'd almost killed her.

"Would that I were. I will not deny that Bael's exploit inspired mine own . . . but I did not steal either of your sisters that I recall. Bael wrote his own songs, and lived them. I only sing the songs that better men have made. More mead?"

"No," said Jon. "If you had been discovered . . . taken . . ."

"Your father would have had my head off." The king gave a shrug. "Though once I had eaten at his board I was protected by guest right. The laws of hospitality are as old as the First Men, and sacred as a heart tree." He gestured at the board between them, the broken bread and chicken bones. "Here you are the guest, and safe from harm at my hands . . . this night, at least. So tell me truly, Jon Snow. Are you a craven who turned your cloak from fear, or is there another reason that brings you to my tent?"

Guest right or no, Jon Snow knew he walked on rotten ice here. One false step and he might plunge through, into water cold enough to stop his heart. Weigh every word before you speak it, he told himself. He took a long draught of mead to buy time for his answer. When he set the horn aside he said, "Tell me why you turned your cloak, and I'll tell you why I turned mine."

Mance Rayder smiled, as Jon had hoped he would. The king was plainly a man who liked the sound of his own voice. "You will have heard stories of my desertion, I have no doubt."

"Some say it was for a crown. Some say for a woman. Others that you had the wildling blood."

"The wildling blood is the blood of the First Men, the same blood that flows in the veins of the Starks. As to a crown, do you see one?"

"I see a woman." He glanced at Dalla.

Mance took her by the hand and pulled her close. "My lady is blameless. I met her on my return from your father's castle. The Halfhand was carved of old oak, but I am made of flesh, and I have a great fondness for the charms of women . . . which makes me no different from three-quarters of the Watch. There are men still wearing black who have had ten times as many women as this poor king. You must guess again, Jon Snow."

Jon considered a moment. "The Halfhand said you had a passion for wildling music."

"I did. I do. That's closer to the mark, yes. But not a hit." Mance Rayder rose, unfastened the clasp that held his cloak, and swept it over the bench. "It was for this."

"A cloak?"

"The black wool cloak of a Sworn Brother of the Night's Watch," said the King-beyond-the-Wall. "One day on a ranging we brought down a fine big elk. We were skinning it when the smell of blood drew a shadow-cat out of its lair. I drove it off, but not before it shredded my cloak to ribbons. Do you see? Here, here, and here?" He chuckled. "It shredded my arm and back as well, and I bled worse than the elk. My brothers feared I might die before they got me back to Maester Mullin at the Shadow Tower, so they carried me to a wildling village where we knew an old wisewoman did some healing. She was dead, as it happened, but her daughter saw to me. Cleaned my wounds, sewed me up, and fed me porridge and potions until I was strong enough to ride again. And she sewed up the rents in my cloak as well, with some scarlet silk from Asshai that her grandmother had pulled from the wreck of a cog washed up on the Frozen Shore. It was the greatest treasure she had, and her gift to me." He swept the cloak back over his shoulders. "But at the Shadow Tower, I was given a new wool cloak from stores, black and black, and trimmed with black, to go with my black breeches and black boots, my black doublet and black mail. The new cloak had no frays nor rips nor tears . . . and most of all, no red. The men of the Night's Watch dressed in black, Ser Denys Mallister reminded me sternly, as if I had forgotten. My old cloak was fit for burning now, he said.

"I left the next morning . . . for a place where a kiss was not a crime, and a man could wear any cloak he chose." He closed the clasp and sat back down again. "And you, Jon Snow?"

Jon took another swallow of mead. There is only one tale that he might believe. "You say you were at Winterfell, the night my father feasted King Robert."

"I did say it, for I was."

"Then you saw us all. Prince Joffrey and Prince Tommen, Princess Myrcella, my brothers Robb and Bran and Rickon, my sisters Arya and Sansa. You saw them walk the center aisle with every eye upon them and take their seats at the table just below the dais where the king and queen were seated."

"I remember."

"And did you see where I was seated, Mance?" He leaned forward. "Did you see where they put the bastard?"

Mance Rayder looked at Jon's face for a long moment. "I think we had best find you a new cloak," the king said, holding out his hand.

A Storm of Swords - Jon I

There is a lot here to unpack here, but one may as well begin with the obvious.

Mance admits to being in Winterfell, and that he brought a bag of silver with him.

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"We found where he'd been sleeping," Robb put in. "He had ninety silver stags in a leather bag buried beneath the straw."

A Game of Thrones - Catelyn III

This alone is already more hard evidence than we ever see presented against Joffery, the boy who couldn’t count past six.

Mance also tells Jon that he fell in with the freeriders and baggage train, which is where the Valyrian Steel dagger was kept.

Mance considers guest right sacred, but that it only applies to a single night, and Jon immediately thinks that it won’t protect him should Mance decide to wish him harm. Obviously, the assassin sent after Bran was not the same night they broke bread in the great hall.

We have established that Mance was there, had the means to acquire the dagger, and there is physical evidence linking him to the assassin. What about motive?

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"And when he did not, you knew your danger was worse than ever, so you gave your catspaw a bag of silver to make certain Bran would never wake."

"Did I now?" Jaime lifted his cup and took a long swallow. "I won't deny we talked of it, but you were with the boy day and night, your maester and Lord Eddard attended him frequently, and there were guards, even those damned direwolves . . . it would have required cutting my way through half of Winterfell. And why bother, when the boy seemed like to die of his own accord?"

A Clash of Kings - Catelyn VII

As Jaime so clearly states, in agreement with his sister, Bran seemed likely to die on his own.

So why send an assassin to kill a boy, who seemed likely to die anyway, with an identifiable dagger, that wasn’t needed to kill a cripple in a coma, when the assassin had already been paid in silver?

The answer goes back to the very first quote in this post. The lion and the wolf are not the only animals in the wood and it is in another’s interest to see them at each other’s throats. In particular, it is in the interest of the King-beyond-the-Wall, who is planning to invade the realm.

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"Wildlings have invaded the realm before." Jon had heard the tales from Old Nan and Maester Luwin both, back at Winterfell. "Raymun Redbeard led them south in the time of my grandfather's grandfather, and before him there was a king named Bael the Bard."

"Aye, and long before them came the Horned Lord and the brother kings Gendel and Gorne, and in ancient days Joramun, who blew the Horn of Winter and woke giants from the earth. Each man of them broke his strength on the Wall, or was broken by the power of Winterfell on the far side . . . but the Night's Watch is only a shadow of what we were, and who remains to oppose the wildlings besides us? The Lord of Winterfell is dead, and his heir has marched his strength south to fight the Lannisters. The wildlings may never again have such a chance as this. I knew Mance Rayder, Jon. He is an oathbreaker, yes . . . but he has eyes to see, and no man has ever dared to name him faintheart."

A Clash of Kings - Jon III

Mance knows the Watch, as he was once a brother of the Night’s Watch.

He was there for Robert’s visit to Winterfell, and he has eyes to see.

The assassin’s attempt on Bran’s life precipitates Ned’s death and Rob’s marching the armies of the North south. Mance can’t be expected to have predicted all the details or events, but the point remains firm, it was clearly in his benefit to cause strife amongst the lords of the land he planned to invade.

Mance Rayder had a better motive than perhaps anyone for Bran to have been murdered with the knife of Robert. In addition, while Robert might only say it would be a mercy to kill Bran while drunk, it is exactly the type of mentality one would expect from the freefolk,

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"It is not always mortal in children."

"North of the Wall it is. Hemlock is a sure cure, but a pillow or a blade will work as well. If I had given birth to that poor child, I would have given her the gift of mercy long ago."

A Dance with Dragons - Jon XI

We see this same sentiment of “mercy” expressed by the assassin himself.

He was a small, dirty man in filthy brown clothing, and he stank of horses. Catelyn knew all the men who worked in their stables, and he was none of them. He was gaunt, with limp blond hair and pale eyes deep-sunk in a bony face, and there was a dagger in his hand.

Catelyn looked at the knife, then at Bran. "No," she said. The word stuck in her throat, the merest whisper.

He must have heard her. "It's a mercy," he said. "He's dead already."

A Game of Thrones - Catelyn III

And, while we have the quote from the assassin and Val, Mance’s sister-in-law, next to each other, I think we should also compare their physical descriptions.

I mentioned above that Cersei’s curly gold hair would come up again, and I think it is important to note that while the assassin has blond hair, he doesn’t have the curly hair of the Lannisters.

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Val looked at him with pale grey eyes. "He always climbed too fast." She was as fair as he'd remembered, slender, full-breasted, graceful even at rest, with high sharp cheekbones and a thick braid of honey-colored hair that fell to her waist.

A Storm of Swords - Jon X

Both Val and the assassin have straight blonde hair, pale eyes, and bony features.

We don’t know exactly where Val and Dalla are from, presumably north of the Wall. Mance did say, quoted above, that he met Dalla “on my return from your father's castle.” While Mance appears to deny having left the Watch over a woman, making Jon guess again, then tells the story of the shadowcat pawed cloak, a close read leaves me wondering if the woman who repaired his cloak was Dalla, and if Mance is intentionally obfuscating that.

But wait! I just quoted that Mance said he met Dalla on his return from Winterfell! Clearly Mance left the Watch long before Robert’s visit to Winterfell. So what gives?

Interestingly, Mance has explicitly visited Winterfell twice. The second time coinciding with Robert’s visit.

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It made no sense at first, but as Jon turned it over in his mind, dawn broke. "When you were a brother of the Watch . . ."

"Very good! Yes, that was the first time. You were just a boy, and I was all in black, one of a dozen riding escort to old Lord Commander Qorgyle when he came down to see your father at Winterfell."

A Storm of Swords - Jon I

I would suggest that it is possible that Mance, as a brother of the Watch stationed at the Shadow Tower, may have traveled to Castle Black as part of a regular patrol before becoming part of Qorgyle’s escort.

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Jon shrugged. "It changes. I've heard that Lord Commander Qorgyle used to send them out every third day from Castle Black to Eastwatch-by-the-Sea, and every second day from Castle Black to the Shadow Tower. The Watch had more men in his day, though. Lord Commander Mormont prefers to vary the number of patrols and the days of their departure, to make it more difficult for anyone to know their comings and goings. And sometimes the Old Bear will even send a larger force to one of the abandoned castles for a fortnight or a moon's turn." His uncle had originated that tactic, Jon knew. Anything to make the enemy unsure.

A Storm of Swords - Jon III

I would also suggest that he may have been sent on a ranging on his return to the Shadow Tower, and this ranging may have been when he was attacked by the shadowcat who’s paw marks he still bears on his cloak.

A black cloak, slashed with red silk, on a king who wears a noteworthy helm…

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In the thickest part of the fray, Jon saw Mance standing tall in his stirrups. His red-and-black cloak and raven-winged helm made him easy to pick out.

A Storm of Swords - Jon X

The raven winged helm is a very odd detail, which I do not think is happenstance.

If you read the post which preceded this one, you will know that I do not believe Bloodraven is the three eyed crow, after all, a crow is not a raven. But, I do think there may be a connection here. In fact, Mance’s birth to a wildling and a man of the watch and subsequent adoption by the Night’s Watch inherently raise suspicions about his heritage. And, besides his coloring (Bloodraven was an Albino), the descriptions do bear some resemblance; middling height, slender, sharp-faced, with shrewd eyes (as raven’s eyes are described). Although for their respective ages to work out, Bloodraven would have to be very old or Mance’s grandfather (at least) to be his ancestor.

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The King-beyond-the-Wall looked nothing like a king, nor even much a wildling. He was of middling height, slender, sharp-faced, with shrewd brown eyes and long brown hair that had gone mostly to grey. There was no crown on his head, no gold rings on his arms, no jewels at his throat, not even a gleam of silver. He wore wool and leather, and his only garment of note was his ragged black wool cloak, its long tears patched with faded red silk.

A Storm of Swords - Jon I

Blood relations aside, I do think there is a connection between Mance and Bloodraven. Although the nature of this relationship is still unclear. Was Mance looking for Bloodraven's cave with all the digging in the Frostfangs?

There is one more important topic in relation to Bran’s assassin which has not been properly addressed here, the Winterfell Library.

I think there is a decent case to be made that the Winterfell Library was as much a target for this venture as sending the catspaw to kill Bran. In fact, it’s even possible that Mance is the one who lit the fire.

Consider that Tyrion remarks on the ancient scrolls (in particular Ayrmidon's Engines of War) at the very start of the scene with the “send a dog to kill a dog” quote he later misremembers. Consider that when Mance returns north of the Wall he begins to gather all the Free Folk in the Frost Fangs, where they are digging and looking for something. I believe this digging, and searching, was spurred on by what he found in the Winterfell Library. In addition, I think it is possible his trip to Winterfell itself was at least in part to try and find a way to fight the White Walkers.

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Mance thinks he'll fight, the brave sweet stubborn man, like the white walkers were no more than rangers, but what does he know? He can call himself King-beyond-the-Wall all he likes, but he's still just another old black crow who flew down from the Shadow Tower. He's never tasted winter. I was born up there, child, like my mother and her mother before her and her mother before her, born of the Free Folk. We remember.

A Game of Thrones - Bran VI

After all, knowledge is the first step in knowing how to fight. And old books are a good place to find knowledge. Say what you will about Mance but he has eyes to see.

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"You know nothing. You killed a dead man, aye, I heard. Mance killed a hundred. A man can fight the dead, but when their masters come, when the white mists rise up … how do you fight a mist, crow? Shadows with teeth … air so cold it hurts to breathe, like a knife inside your chest … you do not know, you cannot know … can your sword cut cold?"

We will see, Jon thought, remembering the things that Sam had told him, the things he'd found in his old books.

A Dance with Dragons - Jon XII

Presumably the giant horn that Melisandre burned was not the real Horn of Winter (any more than she burned the real Mance), but it’s still not clear to me if that is what Mance was actually looking for, or what he might have actually found.

In conclusion, I predict that Mance will survive his third visit to Winterfell, and the library knowledge as well as the fact that he sent the catspaw assassin will come up again in an important way to our plot moving forward!

Quote

"A shadow on the wall," Varys murmured, "yet shadows can kill."

A Clash of Kings - Tyrion II

TLDR: Mance is the shadowcat who descended from the wall (literally and figuratively), and it was his catspaw who was sent to kill Bran!

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

The answer goes back to the very first quote in this post. The lion and the wolf are not the only animals in the wood and it is in another’s interest to see them at each other’s throats. In particular, it is in the interest of the King-beyond-the-Wall, who is planning to invade the realm.

I agree with your premise.  I think GRRM is using the Valyrian steel dagger with the dragonbone hilt as a type of "dragon tooth".  In other words a nod to the Greek tale of Cadmus, where Cadmus slays a dragon and then sows the ground with the teeth of the dragon causing an army to sprout up from the ground.  Cadmus than threw a jewel into the midst of the soldiers that sprouted up, causing them to fight among themselves, leaving only five survivors.  These five survivors than joined with Cadmus.  Hence the phrase "to sow the dragon's teeth" becoming a metaphor for formenting a dispute.

In our tale, the dagger, the dragon's tooth, was used by Mance to attempt to forment dispute between Robert and Eddard, between the Stag and the Wolf.  Kill Bran with Robert's knife, and in effect distract Eddard's attention from the North towards the South.

And in a way it works, although probably not as Mance had intended.

Instead, Cat brings the knife to the South, and Baelish in deft move, makes the dagger his own, by inventing a lie about the dagger being lost to Tyrion.  Thus Baelish uses the dragon's tooth to forment his own dispute, between House Stark and House Lannister.

 

[Megorova]

Petyr Baelish sent that catspaw to kill Bran. Because he probably knew what happened to Bran. Considering that Petyr was aware about Cersei and Jaime's secret relationship, there is a possibility that amongst Cersei's entorage there was a spy who was working for Littlefinger. A woman, some sort of maid, someone unnoticeable and unimportant. And this spy knew that Cersei and Jaime were at that tower, when Bran fell from there. Because this person was spying after Lannister-Duo. And then this person sent raven to LF and informed him about what happened. LF didn't needed Bran waiking up and revealing too soon about Cersei's relationship with Jaime. LF planned that Ned will come to KL, and then he will step by step, enter into LF's trap. If Bran woke up, and told what he saw, then Robert would have punished Cersei and Jaime, and would have gotten rid of Cersei's children, but there would have been no civil war, and thus no chaos, which is a ladder that LF was intending to use to climb on the Iron Throne.

[Nevets]

I've seen the theory that Mance sent the catspaw before.  I didn't believe it then, and I don't believe it now.  I have multiple problems with it.   Mainly issues related to timing, access to the dagger, and a weak motive.

With relation to timing, the most important thing to remember is this: Bran fell from the tower the day before their planned departure.  Essentially, nothing related to an attack on Bran can be planned before this point. Why is Mance even there still?  Shouldn't he be on his way home?  He went to gather intelligence about Robert, his relationship with Ned, and how it would affect events in the North.  I should think that by now, he would have gathered everything he can use. He also has a kingdom to rule, one that relies on force of arms and of personality.  He needs to get back.  Plus, why would he still have his bag of silver.  Shouldn't he have spent it on gambling, wenching (sex workers are great sources of info), gifts, not to mention travel expenses?  He shouldn't have a whole lot left over.

The dagger:  There seems to be this assumption that the dagger is actually important.  If things had gone according to plan, the catspaw would have left killed Bran and walked out, with the dagger.  The only reason he didn't was because of Summer.  Catelyn was inconvenient, but couldn't have stopped him alone.  And I doubt that whoever planned things would have counted on Summer to somehow save the day.  

There is no reason for anyone to assume that the dagger is inherently traceable.  The only reason it became an issue was because Littlefinger lied about it, something that couldn't be foreseen.  Hell, Catelyn's trip to Kings Landing was unforeseeable. Nor would it have been that easy for an outsider to steal.  Even if Mance was in the neighborhood of the baggage train, he would have had no reason to be interested, nor would he likely have had access to the royal family's private belongings.  At Winterfell, the chest with the weapons was kept in Robert's private chambers, as I recall.  I would expect that area to be well-guarded, with only trusted (and well-known) servants allowed, in addition to the royal family, of course.  They sure as hell aren't going to allow any old person to wander around, nor would Mance have any reason to know of the weapons chest, much less the dagger.

He has no real reason to harm anyone at Winterfell.  If a Stark family member is hurt, there is an increased likelihood that Ned will stay in Winterfell.  I doubt Mance wants that.  If he is going to cause trouble in the North, Robb is a much better opponent than Ned is.  And if he has done any information-gathering at all, he is going to know that Ned and Robert are still close friends, and trust each other.  Murders or other suspicious incidents are more likely to be ascribed to provocateurs or meddlers, or personal motives, than to any rivalry between the houses.  And as pointed out above, it is rather late in the game.  nothing untoward had happened by this time, and given the impending departure, it is unlikely it would.  In any event, plans would be pretty much set in stone by this point, and in fact were.

Not that I am a great fan of Joffrey as the culprit.  It has problems, such as a very weak motive.  But all the others suspects have even bigger problems, such as access, motive, timing, and the like.  Littlefinger would be a possibility, except I don't see how he would be able to communicate with any agents he had, or how (or why) they would access the dagger.  (Remember, there was no reason to believe that the dagger would be recovered).  Also, Littlefinger seems to be doing everything he can to get Ned to come to KL, so as to make it easier to lead him into peril.

[Groo]

The original post quotes heavily from the events of Joffrey's wedding day but leaves an important part out.

Quote

Tyrion was staring at his nephew with his mismatched eyes. "Perhaps a knife, sire. To match your sword. A dagger of the same fine Valyrian steel . . . with a dragonbone hilt, say?"

Joff gave him a sharp look. "You . . . yes, a dagger to match my sword, good." He nodded. "A . . . a gold hilt with rubies in it. Dragonbone is too plan."

A Storm of Swords - Sansa IV

Tyrion was testing his theory out on Joffrey and Joffrey's startled and stumbling response convinced Tyrion that he had guessed correctly. The original post conveniently left this part out. Keep in mind this is from Sansa's POV so there's no drunken stupor to explain it away.

[Mourning Star]

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I've seen the theory that Mance sent the catspaw before.  I didn't believe it then, and I don't believe it now.  I have multiple problems with it.   Mainly issues related to timing, access to the dagger, and a weak motive.

With relation to timing, the most important thing to remember is this: Bran fell from the tower the day before their planned departure.  Essentially, nothing related to an attack on Bran can be planned before this point. Why is Mance even there still?  Shouldn't he be on his way home?  He went to gather intelligence about Robert, his relationship with Ned, and how it would affect events in the North.  I should think that by now, he would have gathered everything he can use. He also has a kingdom to rule, one that relies on force of arms and of personality.  He needs to get back.  Plus, why would he still have his bag of silver.  Shouldn't he have spent it on gambling, wenching (sex workers are great sources of info), gifts, not to mention travel expenses?  He shouldn't have a whole lot left over.

I think he was there for the Library, looking for a way to fight the others. Do you really believe he went all the way to Winterfell to look at Robert? Ridiculous. I think he simply took advantage of the situation once he was there.

He did not have a kingdom to rule and only gathered the Free Folk after retuning.

I'm not going to comment on your opinion about silver spending habits of kings, seems silly.

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

The dagger:  There seems to be this assumption that the dagger is actually important.  If things had gone according to plan, the catspaw would have left killed Bran and walked out, with the dagger.  The only reason he didn't was because of Summer.  Catelyn was inconvenient, but couldn't have stopped him alone.  And I doubt that whoever planned things would have counted on Summer to somehow save the day.  

Why do you assume the assassin would leave with the dagger? I think the obvious assumption is that the dagger would have been left at the crime scene, why else use it at all, one certainly doesn't need a dagger to kill a kid in a coma.

Why send the dagger at all? That's the question worth asking.

It's not an assumption that it was important, there should be a reason it is there at all.

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

There is no reason for anyone to assume that the dagger is inherently traceable. 

What?!?! It is obviously visibly tracible. Presumably why it was used.

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

The only reason it became an issue was because Littlefinger lied about it, something that couldn't be foreseen.

Again, I don't know what you are on about. It was an issue because it was used to try and kill Bran, Cat brought it all the way to King's Landing with her. I think you are just wildly off base here.

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

  Hell, Catelyn's trip to Kings Landing was unforeseeable.

But something like it wasn't. Even if the assasin gets away with it, and leaves the dagger, since that's why he brought it and was there in the first place. It is obviously unique and thus obviously worth trying to trace.

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Nor would it have been that easy for an outsider to steal.

Ok, but Mance made it all the way from north of the Wall into Winterfell, so I really don't see this as an issue. Someone stole it, and Mance might also be the most capable suspect in addition to the rest.

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

  Even if Mance was in the neighborhood of the baggage train, he would have had no reason to be interested, nor would he likely have had access to the royal family's private belongings.  At Winterfell, the chest with the weapons was kept in Robert's private chambers, as I recall. 

Unless you have a quote I assume you are making this up.

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I would expect that area to be well-guarded, with only trusted (and well-known) servants allowed, in addition to the royal family, of course.  They sure as hell aren't going to allow any old person to wander around, nor would Mance have any reason to know of the weapons chest, much less the dagger.

You can expect what you want and misremember what you want or invent whatever narrative you want. I'm trying to work from the text.

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

He has no real reason to harm anyone at Winterfell.

Excuse me? He's about to invade. He has every reason to harm all of them.

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

  If a Stark family member is hurt, there is an increased likelihood that Ned will stay in Winterfell.

Not enough to actually make him stay it seems, also the plan was probably to kill Bran not hurt him.

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I doubt Mance wants that.

Ok...

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

 If he is going to cause trouble in the North, Robb is a much better opponent than Ned is.  And if he has done any information-gathering at all, he is going to know that Ned and Robert are still close friends, and trust each other.

But not really though, also Lannisters... did you really think about this?

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

  Murders or other suspicious incidents are more likely to be ascribed to provocateurs or meddlers, or personal motives, than to any rivalry between the houses. 

No. Literally everyone assumes it was the Lannisters, even the Lannisters.

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

And as pointed out above, it is rather late in the game.  nothing untoward had happened by this time, and given the impending departure, it is unlikely it would.  In any event, plans would be pretty much set in stone by this point, and in fact were.

You mean besides Bran being thrown from a window for seeing the queen fucking her brother? LOL

59 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Not that I am a great fan of Joffrey as the culprit.  It has problems, such as a very weak motive.  But all the others suspects have even bigger problems, such as access, motive, timing, and the like.  Littlefinger would be a possibility, except I don't see how he would be able to communicate with any agents he had, or how (or why) they would access the dagger.  (Remember, there was no reason to believe that the dagger would be recovered).  Also, Littlefinger seems to be doing everything he can to get Ned to come to KL, so as to make it easier to lead him into peril.

I guess I just do not agree with you or your views here. Still, thanks for the comment and be well!

[Mourning Star]

5 minutes ago, Groo said:

The original post quotes heavily from the events of Joffrey's wedding day but leaves an important part out.

Tyrion was testing his theory out on Joffrey and Joffrey's startled and stumbling response convinced Tyrion that he had guessed correctly. The original post conveniently left this part out. Keep in mind this is from Sansa's POV so there's no drunken stupor to explain it away.

Happy you brought this up!

I had to cut a lot because these posts are too long as is, but I'm glad to discuss more here in the comments.

Of course Joffery does remember the knife!

And, of course he is surprised!

The knife was won by Robert on a bet during Joffery's name day tourney, when Jaime was unhorsed. Joffery would know it from this event.

He's surprised because after acting like a complete jerk to Tyrion, Tyrion responds with uncharacteristic kindness.

Also, this isn't the only "sharp look" in the series, so if the crux of the argument is that Joff is guilty because he gave an oddly acting Tyrion an odd look then I think it's the definition of a bad argument.

"Joff's only a boy," Tyrion pointed out. "At his age, I committed a few follies of my own."
His father gave him a sharp look. "I suppose we ought to be grateful that he has not yet married a whore."
Tyrion sipped at his wine, wondering how Lord Tywin would look if he flung the cup in his face.

The whole point here is that Tyrions case is all assumption and bias without any actual evidence, this "sharp look" somhow being proof is a perfect example of why not to eat it hook, line and sinker.

[Seams]

6 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

"Winterfell is so infested with wolves, the Starks would never miss one."

Tyrion hopped off the last step onto the yard. "I beg to differ, nephew," he said. "The Starks can count past six. Unlike some princes I might name."

 

6 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

"Sharp! I told you, I am no stranger to Valyrian steel." It took him half a dozen further cuts to hack the thick tome apart, and the boy was breathless by the time he was done.

These two lines from Joffrey are related, I think: we know that there are seven gods for those who believe in the new gods. If a person can count only to six, they are neglecting to acknowledge the seventh god, The Stranger. 

Similarly, Joffrey saying that he is no stranger (to Valyrian steel) is like saying he is not the Grim Reaper; he is not a killer. 

The dragonbone handle of the dagger is extremely important, imho. It tells us that this is a Targaryen or Blackfyre weapon. With all the parallels readers have found between Mance Rayder and Prince Rhaegar, I think this makes Mance a logical suspect as the man behind the catspaw. I like your idea of Mance as a Bloodraven descendant, too. (I happen to think that Littlefinger is a hidden Targ, however, so I have not ruled him out as a suspect.) 

6 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

The notion seemed to delight the prince. "Send a dog to kill a dog!" he exclaimed.

The "send a dog to kill a dog" line seems to foreshadow Ned Stark killing the direwolf Lady. Ned takes on the task out of respect for Lady, after Robert passes the sentence but then refuses to swing the sword. So Joffrey's delight is a kind of mummer version of Robert's upcoming approach to the execution of Lady. 

There are some who believe that Ned Stark killed Lyanna to avenge the honor of the betrothal to Robert. (The beheading of Lady is a hint in this direction as well.) If so, the dog killing the dog line could be a flashback as well as foreshadowing. 

[three-eyed monkey]

I too have read a version of this theory before and I'm not at all convinced.

Personally I believe Littlefinger is behind the catspaw. To begin with he has a clear motive, he's trying to provoke a war.

We don't know for sure that the dagger was in the baggage train, that's only speculation by Tyrion on his way to an incorrect deduction. We only know that Littlefinger lost it to Robert. According to Tywin, Robert had a hundred daggers but only ever used a hunting knife Jon Arryn had given him so where the catspaw dagger ended up is uncertain. It may have been back in Littlefinger's possession and in the catspaw's hand before the royal wheelhouse rolled out of King's Landing for all we know.

It is incorrect to link the murder with Bran's fall. That's an assumption we all made on first reading because Bran had seen something he shouldn't have seen so it seems obvious that he was being silenced, with Jaime and Cersei the main suspects. But we know now that's not the case. The murder could certainly have been planned before Bran fell. The fact is that the catspaw could have traveled to Winterfell with instructions to linger for some time after the royal party had left and then kill a Stark kid and leave the rather distinct and incriminating blade behind. Robb, Bran and Rickon were left behind, with Bran in a particularly vulnerable position if the catspaw could get him alone. We don't know for sure if he would have walked out with the dagger had he succeeded. Littlefinger is quick to pin the dagger's ownership on the Imp and make that connection to the Lannisters.

As for Mance, I don't think it's his style. In fact, it greatly misunderstands Mance's plan. He's not invading in the traditional sense. He wants to get his people south of the Wall and keep them there. Mance does not want war, he tells Jon that he will attack if he has to but his people would only bleed and they have bled enough. Several Kings-beyond-the-Wall have made it south but all were defeated eventually. Mance knows his history and so is not doomed to repeat it. He knows he needs to make peace with the North.

[Groo]

45 minutes ago, Seams said:

(I happen to think that Littlefinger is a hidden Targ, however, so I have not ruled him out as a suspect.) 

 

I'll update the Targaryen Scorecard accordingly.

[Frey family reunion]

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

I think he was there for the Library, looking for a way to fight the others. Do you really believe he went all the way to Winterfell to look at Robert? Ridiculous. I think he simply took advantage of the situation once he was there.

I don’t have any particular reason to doubt that part of Mance’s story myself.  I’m a bit on the fence about his interest in Winterfell’s library.  But I agree that Mance would have simply taken advantage of the situation concerning Bran’s fall.  And I don’t have any issues with Mance still being there when Bran fell.  

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Why do you assume the assassin would leave with the dagger? I think the obvious assumption is that the dagger would have been left at the crime scene, why else use it at all, one certainly doesn't need a dagger to kill a kid in a coma.

Even more importantly, an assassin doesn’t need a Valyrian steel dagger to kill a child in a coma.  Joffrey certainly wouldn’t have sacrificed Valyrian steel to put Bran out of his misery.  

I think the choice of dagger is proof that someone was trying to pin this murder on Robert.  Presumably Mance would not have been aware that Robert’s choice of knife was a sentimental one, one given to him by Jon Arryn when he was a boy.  So Mance would have assumed that the most valuable knife in the King’s wheelhouse would have been the one associated with Robert, the dagger made of dragon bone and Valyrian steel.

Which is why such a valuable weapon was used in such an overkill fashion.

As for Joffrey, it makes no sense that he would have any interest in putting Bran out of his misery.  It can’t be to curry favor from his dad, because he never tells his dad what he did.  It can’t be because Joffrey agreed with his dad that it was best for Bran to die than to be a cripple, because that would assume that Joffrey would care one whit for what would be in Bran’s best interest.  And like I said above, there is no way that Joffrey would have sacrificed Valyrian steel to do it.  

[Frey family reunion]

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

As for Mance, I don't think it's his style. In fact, it greatly misunderstands Mance's plan. He's not invading in the traditional sense. He wants to get his people south of the Wall and keep them there. Mance does not want war, he tells Jon that he will attack if he has to but his people would only bleed and they have bled enough. Several Kings-beyond-the-Wall have made it south but all were defeated eventually. Mance knows his history and so is not doomed to repeat it. He knows he needs to make peace with the North.

I think we’re making a lot of assumptions that we know Mance’s true motives.  It’s not a stretch to assume that everything he’s told Jon is a lie.  

The one thing that seems apparent is that Mance is trying to get a large number of Wildlings south of the Wall.  Whether that is truly to escape the threat of the White Walkers is very questionable to me.  In fact you could argue that the White Walkers are also doing what Mance is doing, driving the wildlings south of the Wall, out of the North.

As for Mance, if he’s trying to get a large number of Wildings on the other side of the Wall, it’s in his best interest that the Wall is defended as lightly as possible.  Which means he doesn’t need Winterfell to bolster the Night’s Watch.

[Nevets]

3 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

I think he was there for the Library, looking for a way to fight the others. Do you really believe he went all the way to Winterfell to look at Robert? Ridiculous. I think he simply took advantage of the situation once he was there.

He did not have a kingdom to rule and only gathered the Free Folk after retuning.

Ned refers to Mance as the King-beyond-the-wall when speaking to Catelyn in the Godswood right after the execution of the deserter.  That was well before Robert's visit.  He has been king for a while.

Why would he think there was info on the Others at Winterfell, and how long is he planning to be there, assuming they let him in the door?

3 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Why do you assume the assassin would leave with the dagger? I think the obvious assumption is that the dagger would have been left at the crime scene, why else use it at all, one certainly doesn't need a dagger to kill a kid in a coma.

Why send the dagger at all? That's the question worth asking.

It's not an assumption that it was important, there should be a reason it is there at all.

What else is he going to use?  His bare hands?  As to why a valerian dagger, I can think of a couple of reasons.  One is that valerian steel is regarded as superior to regular steel, and more effective.  I.e., it's easier to kill someone with such a weapon.  Second, they are quite valuable.  The catspaw can probably get a good price for it, even at a steep discount.  I have always assumed that it was part of the price for the assassination.  As for being traceable, it is described as plain, with no gold inlay, jewels, or other markings.  As valerian weapons go, it is probably about as anonymous as it is possible to be.

3 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Excuse me? He's about to invade. He has every reason to harm all of them.

Then why hasn't he?  It is the day before they are going to leave for Kings Landing, and he has done absolutely nothing.  Either he isn't trying hard, or is cutting things very close indeed.  Or he has no reason to harm them in the first place.  After all, most of them are going to be a very long ways away.

3 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Again, I don't know what you are on about. It was an issue because it was used to try and kill Bran, Cat brought it all the way to King's Landing with her. I think you are just wildly off base here.

If Littlefinger hadn't lied about it, it would have played no further role.  Even if it were traced to Robert's collection, that would essentially be a dead ende.  No way is Ned going to believe that Robert did it, and while the list of people with access to it isn't endless, it probably isn't all that short either.  Though I doubt Mance is on that list.

 

[Mourning Star]

12 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Ned refers to Mance as the King-beyond-the-wall when speaking to Catelyn in the Godswood right after the execution of the deserter.  That was well before Robert's visit.  He has been king for a while.

And what exactly do you think Mance's "ruling" as king entailed before gathering them all in the Frostfangs?

You think he's collecting taxes and building roads?

12 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Why would he think there was info on the Others at Winterfell, and how long is he planning to be there, assuming they let him in the door?

If it was going to be found anywhere this is as likely a spot as any. I do not think anyone was going to let him in the door. That's why he disguised himself and snuck in in the story.

12 minutes ago, Nevets said:

What else is he going to use?  His bare hands? 

Yes.

Or a pillow.

Or anything really.

12 minutes ago, Nevets said:

As to why a valerian dagger, I can think of a couple of reasons.  One is that valerian steel is regarded as superior to regular steel, and more effective.  I.e., it's easier to kill someone with such a weapon.  Second, they are quite valuable.  The catspaw can probably get a good price for it, even at a steep discount.  I have always assumed that it was part of the price for the assassination.  As for being traceable, it is described as plain, with no gold inlay, jewels, or other markings.  As valerian weapons go, it is probably about as anonymous as it is possible to be.

I feel like you are highlighting my point here.

If the assassin was already paid, a price in silver coins that Cat didn't think was cheap, then there is no reason for the dagger as payment. First, this is part of why I think it was meant to be left behind at the scene of the crime, and second it a unique dagger that is anything but anonymous. 

12 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Then why hasn't he? 

Why hasn't he what? Killing everyone? Lol what?

12 minutes ago, Nevets said:

It is the day before they are going to leave for Kings Landing, and he has done absolutely nothing.  Either he isn't trying hard, or is cutting things very close indeed.  Or he has no reason to harm them in the first place.  After all, most of them are going to be a very long ways away.

I thought you were suggesting Mance came all the way to Winterfell to look at Robert? Now you are asking why he didn't murder an entire castle full of people? I honestly don't know how to respond. Like what are you even suggesting here? Mance could murder The king his court and the entire North himself in one night? Just really weird.

I think he took advantage of Roberts visit to get into WInterfell, and took advantage of Bran's fall to cause dissention amongst the houses there. 

12 minutes ago, Nevets said:

If Littlefinger hadn't lied about it, it would have played no further role. 

Excuse me? I disagree. It's a different story if Littlefinger doesn't lie, but the dagger would absolutely still matter. Hypotheticals aren't worth getting into though.

12 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Even if it were traced to Robert's collection, that would essentially be a dead ende.  No way is Ned going to believe that Robert did it, and while the list of people with access to it isn't endless, it probably isn't all that short either.  Though I doubt Mance is on that list.

Aw yes, the access to the baggage list, let me see, prince of the realm, check, king beyond the wall, nope sorry not on the list maybe try tomorrow... lol have a good one

[three-eyed monkey]

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think we’re making a lot of assumptions that we know Mance’s true motives.  It’s not a stretch to assume that everything he’s told Jon is a lie.  

The one thing that seems apparent is that Mance is trying to get a large number of Wildlings south of the Wall.  Whether that is truly to escape the threat of the White Walkers is very questionable to me.  In fact you could argue that the White Walkers are also doing what Mance is doing, driving the wildlings south of the Wall, out of the North.

As for Mance, if he’s trying to get a large number of Wildings on the other side of the Wall, it’s in his best interest that the Wall is defended as lightly as possible.  Which means he doesn’t need Winterfell to bolster the Night’s Watch.

When I said it's not Mance's style, I meant sending a catspaw to kill a child.

Mance is obviously a very capable liar. He's told Jon a lot of lies, by I don't think everything he's told Jon is a lie. Mance may be a scoundrel, he may wear no crown or sit on no throne but I genuinely believe Mance is the truest king in Westeros. By true king I mean the definition we are given in the novels, mainly through Dany's arc where it is repeated that a queen belongs not to herself but to her people. I think Mance cares about his people and when he told Jon he could attack but his people would bleed and his people had bled enough, I think he was being genuine.

Mance knows his history and therefore knows that every king-beyond-the-wall that came south was eventually defeated. Sure, you might argue that with the size of his host they could cut out a corner of the North for themselves given that Winterfell is weak, but Stannis ran through them with his much smaller army. It's just not a good long-term strategy. I think Mance has more vision than that.

Mance united all the factions of wildlings into one host, so he has a history of peacemaking.

And I think Mance has been networking south of the Wall, especially with the Umbers. I think he stopped at the Last Hearth on the way back from Robert's feast in Winterfell and that's where he "stole" Dalla. I believe the whole plan has it's very seeds in the woman who nursed Mance after the shadowcat attack, and that woman is Val, who is either Crowfood's daughter or Grand-daughter. In fact I think the whole thing is originally Val's idea. Get the free folk to safety south of the Wall and make peace with the northmen because as Ygritte tells Jon they are not much different, first men, Bael the Bard, etc.

If Mance and Val want to achieve their vision, then they are better off with a strong Lord of Winterfell who has a firm command of the North, respect for the free folk, and the vision to see what Mance and Val see. (A North independent from the Iron Throne would be even better.) Basically, like Stannis and the GNC, Mance too needs Jon because he is that guy.

 

[Seams]

10 hours ago, Nevets said:

Ned refers to Mance as the King-beyond-the-wall when speaking to Catelyn in the Godswood right after the execution of the deserter. 

From the perspective of literary analysis, I think there is some support for the theory that Mance was trying to have Bran killed. 

I've shared my ideas about GRRM's use of wordplay to drop clues: "deserter" = "red trees" is one of my favorite anagrams. There is also wordplay in dagger / ragged / Gared, with Gared being the name of the Night's Watch deserter executed by Ned in the opening Bran POV. 

As the most famous deserter in the series, Mance is a logical suspect to be associated with the dagger. 

(Keep in mind, however, that another logical suspect is named Baelish. He is not a literal Bael the Bard, but he is "bael-ish.")

Why the "red trees" would want Bran dead is still an open question, in my mind. Luckily, death in ASOIAF seems to be a temporary condition in many cases, or a symbolic passage that leads to rebirth. So people could make a range of cases to explain the situation. Maybe it was a symbolic sacrifice, like Bran's "death" at the Winterfell harvest feast where he rides in on a horse and leaves on Hodor's back. I believe Jon Snow's death by the hands of his Night's Watch brothers is a symbolic death, necessary to spill his unique blood on the Wall. I don't understand all of the details, but the attempted murder of Bran could be a similar sacrifice.

(On the Petyr Baelish symbolism: Petyr tries to get Sansa to eat a pomegranate and he tells her that it is difficult to keep the juice off of one's hands. This could tie back into the red trees, which have leaves that look like bloody hands. The leader of the attack on Jon Snow will be Bowen Marsh who supposedly looks like a pomegranate.)

Another line of analysis that might be worth pursuing is the series of tales about a conflict between a king at the Wall or beyond the Wall and a king or lord at Winterfell. Mance and Jon directly discuss the Bael the Bard tale. We also have the Gendel and Gorne story (with two different endings) and the Night's King story. In each tale, we have blood relatives from the Stark line killing or trying to kill each other. A Bran / Mance conflict could echo a number of points from the old histories or legends. 

The Winterfell library also holds clues for us in sorting out the underlying meaning of the catspaw attack. I think we need to look at Septon Chayle, though. Later, Theon puts Septon Chayle into the well at Winterfell, intending to drown him. To the surprise of many readers, Septon Chayle subsequently turns up alive at Castle Black: this is so unexpected that many people assume GRRM made a mistake. But Chayle told Bran that he grew up swimming in the river called the White Knife. Impossible though it would be in real life, I believe Chayle is playing a Gorne-like role in Bran's story, swimming through underground tunnels from Winterfell to the Wall. Remember how Osha seemed to be searching in the pool in the Winterfell godswood? Remember how Able's washerwomen questioned Theon about how his invaders got over the Walls to invade Winterfell? I believe everyone is looking for a magical passage from Winterfell to the Wall (or beyond the Wall) and that Chayle has found it. The entrance is in the well. (Which makes sense in GRRM's wordplay world, as I believe Well and Wall are a rhyming pair.) 

Alternatively, Septon Chayle may be the personification of the books Tyrion borrowed from Winterfell and took along to read during his trip to the Wall. Remember how Tyrion said that Septon Chayle "gaped" at him? This could be wordplay on "page" and a clue for us about Chayle's future role in a seige of Winterfell. (Tyrion's directions specify that Chayle protect a book about seige engines.) Joffrey uses Widow's Wail to destroy a rare book. By contrast, Tyrion's parting words to Chayle are to recommend that he take special care of delicate and rare books. 

Another line of symbolism is the stableboy nature of the catspaw's background. Arya's first kill is a stable boy. Sansa feels the creepy eyes of a stable boy at a time when her dresses are growing too tight and too small. Hodor is a stable boy. I am not certain, but I think Tyrion's interlude under a table at Joffrey's wedding feast, just before Joffrey dies, could be a wordplay clue about being a stable boy. We see Tyrion offering Joff a dagger; Joffrey accepting the offer; Tyrion under a table; Joffrey suddenly dead. (Joffrey's death is fully realized, by contrast with the failed attempt on Bran's life, but Joffrey's death may also be symbolic in the literary sense. Others have made the case that Moonboy is a symbolically reborn Joffrey and he may have other incarnations as well.) 

I know that literary analysis is not everyone's cup of tea. I just offer these as possible hints in support of the Mance theory behind the catspaw. 

[Mourning Star]

4 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

When I said it's not Mance's style, I meant sending a catspaw to kill a child.

Why do you think this? Honest question. I tried to briefly make the case why I think he's exactly the type that would do this.

4 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Mance united all the factions of wildlings into one host, so he has a history of peacemaking.

In the same way that Aegon the Conqueror was a peacemaker... he killed those would be kings that did not submit.

Ask yourself this though... would Mance have been able to unite the North without the threat of the White Walkers?

[Frey family reunion]

10 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Yes.

Or a pillow.

Or anything really.

Or more basically, a knife that isn't valyrian steel.  It's one of the problems about Tyrion's theory that Joff sent the catspaw.  On the one hand Tyrion seizes on Joff's admission that he's familiar with Valyrian steel, but on the other Tyrion comes to the conclusion that Joff couldn't be familiar with valyrian steel because he wouldn't have chosen that particular weapon:

Quote

The blade Joff chose was nice and plain.  No goldwork, no jewels in the hilt, no silver inlay on the blade.  King Robert never wore it, had likely forgotten he owned it.  Yet the Valyrian steel was deadly and sharp ... sharp enough to slice through skin, flesh, and muscle in one quick stroke.  I am no stranger to Valyrian steel.  But he had been hadn't he?  Else he would never have been so foolish as to pick Littelfinger's knife.

Tyrion can't have it both ways.  

This quote also highlights the reason that Littlefinger was probably not behind the catspaw.  Littlefinger wouldn't have used a blade that could be traced back to him.  And if Littlefinger was trying to pit Eddard vs. Robert or any of the other Lannisters, he wouldn't have picked a blade that Robert was never seen using.

ETA: However, an outsider, someone unfamiliar with Robert, who went through Robert's carriage and someone familiar with valyrian steel and dragonbone could have assumed that this particular knife was the king's.  Valyrian steel and dragonbone would make it far more valuable than any other bejewled knife that it might be found amongst.

[Frey family reunion]

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[Frey family reunion]

11 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

If the assassin was already paid, a price in silver coins that Cat didn't think was cheap, then there is no reason for the dagger as payment. First, this is part of why I think it was meant to be left behind at the scene of the crime, and second it a unique dagger that is anything but anonymous. 

Or more probably, whoever sent the catspaw highly doubted that the catspaw would succeed.  After all, the guy is kind of a mess.  But if the motive was just to sow dissension, it's the attempt that matters moreso than the actual deed.  So I think if one wanted the dagger highlighted, he probably assumed the assassin would be caught before he killed Bran.

And if he did happen to kill Bran, he'd probably be caught soon thereafter, and as for Bran, well, as many were thinking, it would probably be a mercy anyway.