Chess: Observing the Mating Patterns of King, Queens and Bishops.

[IheartIheartTesla]

I've started playing bullet chess (1 min) on lichess, and while I pride myself on the speed of my calculations (as opposed to depth), some folks on there are surely cheating. They probably have some software in there to prevent that sort of thing, especially since Stockfish is available to analyze every game and if they see an overlap between player move and engine best move its a red flag for sure.

Still, you have to wonder....

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I really don't play Bullet, when I play on lichess, I play old man blitz (5-0). Atm solid in the 2.200 range there.

I am way too old for this bullet shenanigans.

[Rorshach]

I prefer 3-2-bullet, but I'm not good at all. And I don't bring my work mouse home, so I'm not playing it at home. Haven't bought a mouse here, all I have is the touchpad.

Play a lot of daily on chess.com, but I'm starting to get seriously irritated about players who lower their rating for tournaments. Come in on a rating around 1000 (say, 1023 or something not-a-round-number) and then play 600 points better.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Candidates is back.

Round One was all drawn (at least on the mens' side, the ladies are also playing had at least one decissive game with an upset on top). There was some action however. With Caruana missing a promising position by playing and exchanging rooks on f1. Vidit and Gukesh really had a go at it.

 

Round two looks much more bloody.

Naka is basically completely bust against Vidit. Caruana has a small pull against Abasov, and Nepo is also better against Firouzja. Losing with the white pieces would be really bad news for Nakamura. Gukesh also betterish against Pragg.

Edited April 5 by A Horse Named Stranger

[Plessiez]

Really been enjoying this year's Candidates so far, although to be honest I'm rather hoping Nepo doesn't win again. 

One player repeatedly winning the Candidates would be the ideal outcome if they were clearly the second best player in the world (assuming the current champion was the best player, of course, which doesn't apply at the moment) but Nepo doesn't seem to be that.  Rather, it feels like he's benefiting quite a bit from the competition rules meaning he only needs to focus on the Candidates every other year and not worry about qualifying for them, while players like Caruana and Firouzja expend a lot of energy (and preparation) qualifying and then repeatedly disappoint at the actual event (whether because of nerves or lack of energy or the slightly unusual time controls or whatever else is going on) 

On the other hand, if Gukesh manages to win and goes on to beat Ding (which, on current form, seems pretty plausible) I'd have to face living in world with a world champion who was less than half my age, and I'm not sure I'm ready for that.

[Plessiez]

Oh, and if we're confessing to bullet chess habits, I'm currently playing a lot of 2+1 on lichess myself (and have been since 2020, off and on).

I should really stop though: my blitz rating (around 2150 at the moment) is much higher than my average bullet rating and I think playing chess that fast is not good at all for my OTB chess either. 

(I also don't have a mouse, which probably doesn't help.)

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I am super impressed with the Indian faction in this tournament. They really went there with a purpose and were involved in the most interesting games.

[BigFatCoward]

On 4/15/2024 at 10:49 PM, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I am super impressed with the Indian faction in this tournament. They really went there with a purpose and were involved in the most interesting games.

Looking at the current standings, is it normally this close, this deep into the tournament. 

[Plessiez]

4 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Looking at the current standings, is it normally this close, this deep into the tournament. 

No. 

This is, by some distance, the closest it's been at this stage of the tournament since the double round robin format was (re-)adopted for the 2013 Candidates Tournament.  In five previous years (2013, 2014, 2018, 2020/21 and 2022) there was a clear leader by round 10 who went on to win the event.  In most of those tournaments the chasing pack was pretty small too (Anand had 6.5/10 at this stage in 2014, ahead of Aronian on 5.5/10;  Caruana also had 6.5/10 in 2018, ahead of Mamedyarov on 6/10 and Grischuk on 5.5/10; Nepo also had 6.5/10 in 2020/2021, ahead of three players on 5.5/10; Nepo had 7/10 in 2022 again with three players tied for second way back on 5.5/10) and won that year with a undefeated 9.5/14.

The two closest previous Candidates Tournaments were probably 2013 and 2016, but neither of them were this close. Carlsen had 7/10 in 2013, ahead of Aronian on 6.5/10 and Kramnik on 6/10 but Kramnik went on a late run and briefly overtook both of them to take the lead (in round 12) before Carlsen beat Radjabov as Black in round 13 to catch him (and then they both lost in round 14 to finish on 8.5/14, but Carlsen won because of superior tiebreaks).  And in 2016 Karjakin and Caruana were tied after ten rounds on 6/10 each (with Anand just behind on 5.5/10), and Karjakin briefly went behind both Anand and Caruna before regaining the lead and winning the tournament (with 8.5/14 as well).

But there's never been anything like this before.  This year not only are Gukesh and Nepo tied on 6/10 [just like Karjakin and Caruana were in 2016], there are three players just behind them on 5.5/10 (and Vidit just behind them on 5/10, but that's probably(?) a bit too far back to be in contention at this stage).  Feels almost impossible to pick a winner still and it could easily come down to rapid game tiebreaks (which were first brought it last year, instead of the the older tiebreak system that was used in 2013, but obviously not needed to pick a winner that time around).

[A Horse Named Stranger]

What Plessiez said.

Vidit is trailing, but not hopelessly. If he gets on a late run with 2-3 wins, he could win it. Unfortunately for him, he can't play Nakamura again. Talking about Naka, I am still opposed to the idea of him becoming World Champion. I found the idea of him playing a title match absurd last time, and that was thwarted by a normal performing Ding in the last round. And given Ding's form, there's a very fair chance, that whoever wins the candidates will win the title.

I haven't checked today's games, yet. But Firouzja looked like to be heading towards tilt territory in the last round (I wasn't entirely convinced by his f5 push). He might very well finish behind Abasov, who was really there to serve as the designated whipping boy.

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

determined to prove me wrong put Abasov in his place.

Caruana Gukesh ended in a draw.

More significantly Nakamura managed to take down Pragg

Vidit - Nepo is the last game running. I think Nepo is betterish, at least position feels easier to play with just pushing the a-pawn as the clear plan to make progress. This feels like playing for two results, as I can't see a way for black to lose this.

If Nepo wins, this would end Vidit's hopes to win the candidates, it would also pretty much be the end for Pragg this year, and add pressure on Caruana to take more risks.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Ok, Nepo - Pragg a draw in the French exchange variation.

And wins for Caruana (Vidit), Gukesh (Abasov) and Nakamura (Firouzja).

Thus Nepo, Gukesh and Nakemura sit on 7.5/12 with Caruana in pursuit with 7/12.

 

Tomorrow's a rest day. And then we enter the two final rounds. Round 13 has Nepo-Naka as top pairing. Nepo also still has to play Caruana in the Final round. With Naka having to deal with Gukesh then.

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Looks like Gukesh has managed to seize the initiative against Firouzja. += sorta stuff

Nepo looks to have missed something against Nakamura. Engine might say it's still equal, but I'd much rather have black there.

Pragg - Caruana is swinging into Fabiano's direction. I think this will be 0-1. Feels like Pragg has flamed out, and has to fight with his fatigue and frustration of no longer being in the race for the WCC match.

[Plessiez]

Caruana winning today and both the games featuring players ahead of him in the standings being drawn would definitely be the fun result, right?  Would set up a final round tomorrow with four co-leaders, all playing each other, with all four of them more or less obliged to play for a win.  

Glancing at the current engine evaluations for today's games, it doesn't seem that such an outcome would be particularly unlikely either.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I think Caruana and Gukesh will win their games, at least that's my feel from looking at the games.

Nepo-Nakamura is anyone's guess. Like I said, I'd rather play Nakamura's position (just looks more harmonic/better coordinated), but I don't have a concrete winning idea.

Pragg's position just looks like utter misery. Barring some disaster it's probably just a question of when Caruana will break through, not if.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Nepo - Nakamura was a draw afterall.

As was the dead rubber game between Vidit and Abasov

Pragg has found a nice defensive resource. Essentially ejecting an exchange to stabilize things and have better squares for his pieces and coordination. I still believe in Caruana, but it will be a long day at the office for him.

Gukesh - Firouzja is wild, I still back Gukesh.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

And indeed both Gukesh and Caruana are now winning.

 

Assuming nobody suffers a heart attack and thus Gukesh and Caruana will be able to convert. We would go into the final round with Gukesh in the lead

1.Gukesh 8.5

2.Caruana, Naka, Nepo 8

5.Pragg 6

6.Vidit 5.5

7.Firou 4.5

8.Abasov 3.5

 

Edit: No heart attacks, thus those are standings before the final round.

Pairings:

Nakamura (8) - Gukesh (8.5)

Caruana (8) - Nepo (8)

Abasov (3.5) - Pragg (5.5)

Firou   (4.5) - Vidit (5.5)

 

Nice thing that the contenders have to play each other, with Naka, Caruana and Nepo being in must win situations. 9 Points are the requirement to get into the tie-breaks, assuming that Gukesh doesn't win. If Gukesh wins, it's game over for the pack.

 

Edited April 21 by A Horse Named Stranger

[Plessiez]

Not an original observation to me but still somewhat amazing to think that today's round 14 will be the first round of any Candidates Tournament going back all the way to March 2018 in which Ian Nepomniachtchi won't start at least tied for the lead.  Nepo had previously been leading or co-leading every round of every Candidates he'd ever taken part in for a run of 41 consecutive rounds.

Pleased to see Gukesh managed to win -- and well predicted by @A Horse Named Stranger  -- as when I gave up and went to sleep last night (around the time control) I thought his chances of getting a result weren't looking so good.  Would be great to see him win the event now. Failing that, I'd like to see Caruana have another shot at the title, especially because the performance of Gukesh and Praggnanandhaa this month (as well as the rise of other young players like Abdusattorov and Erigaisi up the rating list) suggests he might not get any better chances in the future.

(And I think Caruana has at least as much claim as anyone else of his generation for the status of Best Player Not Named Magnus Carlsen, so it would be nice for him if could get the title to match that.)

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Personally I think best chess playing millenial not named Magnus is Levon (also best player, who never wore the crown).

 

 

[Arakasi]

Well happy with no Nakamura and no Nepo. Also will be nice to have the title return to India again assuming Ding is still not in form. Will be an interesting subtext considering the rivalry between China and India.