Formula 1 2024

[williamjm]

Another fairly dull race when it came to the front, with Verstappen looking untroubled and Perez also looked comfortable once he got into second while Le Clerc was best of the rest. Bearman followed-up on his qualifying with a strong race considering his inexperience.

[Werthead]

The only thing that can save this season from being a total write-off is Red Bull imploding and Max walking, and even then that might just be a 3 or 4-race adjustment period for whomever Max's replacement is before they win everything (or Perez, who seems to be more consistent than last year).

[Werthead]

Looking at the stats, it's interesting that from 1950 to 1999 there was only one driver who won more than two World Championships in successive years: Juan Manuel Fangio, who won four on the trot from 1954 to 1957, in addition to his win in 1951, making him one of only two drivers to win four or more championships in the 20th Century (the other being Prost, who won in 1985-86, 1989 and 1993).

The second we get to the 21st Century, there's a very abrupt shift to long periods of ultra-dominance, with drivers winning numerous championships on the bounce: Schumacher (five in a row, 2000-04), Vettel (four, 2010-13), Hamilton (two and then four, 2014-15, 2017-20) and now Verstappen (three, 2021-23, and probably four with 2024).

Apart from that brief false dawn of varied winners from 2005-09 (and even Alonso nailed two on the bounce in that period), and Rosberg's near-fluky win in 2016, we've just had this staggering period of ultra dominance by a very small number of drivers. Another way to put it is that in the first 25 years of the championship, we had 13 different champions; in the second 25 years we had 14 different champions; and in the third 25 years we've had (probably) 7.

I think this is unhealthy for the sport and it'll be interesting to see how far the viewing figures drop this year, after that small but noticeable drop last year.

Edited March 10 by Werthead

[Loge]

The latest rumor is that Horner might actually be promoted rather than fired. That would probably mean Max and Newey leaving. Mercedes would like to have Max, of course, but their car is rather mediocre this year. Aramco are trying to buy Aston Martin are ready to pay Verstappen and Newey a ton of money if they join the team. It's probably a better option than Mercedes and Ferrari doesn't have a free cockpit. 

[TheLastWolf]

But Max just confirmed he's staying out his contract, 2028 then right?

[Loge]

16 minutes ago, TheLastWolf said:

But Max just confirmed he's staying out his contract, 2028 then right?

I haven't heard about that. Is there a source?

 

ETA: OK, found something to that effect, but it doesn't mean anything. Hamilton made statements like that up to the very moment the Ferrari deal was announced.

Edited March 23 by Loge

[TheLastWolf]

Fairs, these changes better for the sport in the long run one hopes

[Werthead]

Everyone at Ferrari and all the Tifosi: "Wheeeellllp." Major case of sellers' remorse going on there, I think.

Perez might have gotten away with that though. What could have been a nail in the coffin of his career was offset by apparent damage to the underfloor of the car, which explains why he went from beasting half the field to suddenly being 3 tenths off the pace within a few laps despite new hard tyres.

A day, and maybe a season, for Mercedes to forget.

[williamjm]

6 hours ago, Werthead said:

Everyone at Ferrari and all the Tifosi: "Wheeeellllp." Major case of sellers' remorse going on there, I think.

Sainz definitely couldn't be doing any more to advertise his abilities. Of course, he benefited from Red Bull's reliability problems but he still looked in control throughout.

It would have been interesting to see whether they could have been competitive with Verstappen during the race, I suspect Max still comes out on top but it might have been closer than the other races this year.

[Iskaral Pust]

Great to see Sainz on his revenge/audition tour, although too many athletes peak when a contract is needed and then fade (not saying that will be the case with Sainz).  Pretty incredible to qualify and race like that straight after a return from surgery and with less practice and prep during the week.

Considering Verstappen retired very early, it wasn’t a hotly contested race.  Perhaps his dominance isn’t the only reason for dull races.

Hamilton must be excited to move from Merc to Ferrari but it will be interesting to see if that makes him a contender.  I’m not sure he’ll out-drive Leclerc.  He’s not even out-driving Russell consistently.

[Werthead]

Without Verstappen, you could see it was a more interesting race. Leclerc, Piastri, Perez and Norris all briefly looked in contention for the lead, at least potentially until Perez damaged his floor (or rather apparently got something stuck on the floor, which destroyed the airflow). Leclerc probably had the best shot, the McLarens tripped over one another a little and once the Ferraris pulled ahead they probably dialled down their engine, which is a shame but understandable. Norris did at least keep them in sight for quite a while though. Sainz did do what he needed to do but he did seem to drop pace towards the end; some suggestion both Ferraris were also told to dial down the engine and cruise them home once clear of the McLarens, and not fight for the lead.

Hamilton does have a slight tendency to go into cruise control if the car is not to his liking. It's not unusual but it is a little disappointing. Still, the Ferrari looks to be on a much better trajectory than the Mercedes, which is a dog's dinner of a car.

Surprisingly strong race pace from the Haas, again, and Tsunoda running rings around Ricciardo. Tsunoda not being eyed for Red Bull is very silly indeed, with the new rumour being that Ricciardo could be out midseason, Lawson in and if Lawson does well, he could be in the Red Bull in 2025. But on current form (and Red Bull seem to genuinely agree that Perez's issues today were technical) Perez might be breathing easier than he was before.

At the moment I believe Tsunoda could win the next race in reverse gear and Horner would still not consider him for the Red Bull drive.

The long run simulations do seem to agree that the Ferrari was much, much closer to the Red Bull than at any point since the start of 2022. Melbourne is more representative of a bunch of other tracks than Singapore, where Ferrari won last year, so interesting to see if Ferrari can get into a position to take on Red Bull in a straight fight.

Edited March 24 by Werthead

[Wilbur]

Lewin Day talks about how the Aussie GP showed that the rejection of Andretti was a crock.

Don't Tell Me Andretti Isn't Good Enough For F1 When Williams Can't Even Field Two Cars - The Autopian

[Iskaral Pust]

Verstappen cruised through Suzuka.  At least the pit stops forced some jockeying and over-taking before it settled into a clear run for him.  As usual, there was a decent amount of competition outside of P1 though.

Perez looks much more solid this year.  Ricciardo is hammering the last few nails into the coffin of his racing career — he’ll be great at marketing or TV commentary instead.  Sainz continues his revenge/audition tour in some style.  Hamilton continues to be out-raced by Russell, leaving us in suspense as to whether it’s his declining motivation or his declining skills.  Ferrari seem to have overtaken McClaren for P2 in speed, and no longer comically self-sabotage with their race strategy.  Aston Martin have fallen back after starting last year so strongly and surprising everyone.

The Redbull civil war seems to have quieted for now.

[Werthead]

The Red Bull civil war has had some extra heat, with sources close to the suspended woman saying that sexual harassment by Horner was part of the case, which had not previously been confirmed. Some contacts of Horner's ex-wife also piling in by saying the situation is identical to when he bailed on her to hook up with Geri, but clearly that's starting to get a bit tabloid-y.

Lots of rumour-mongering more related to the track going on. Apparently Horner is keen on signing Alonso on a two-year contract, which Alonso would definitely make his last in F1, but Marko has vehemently rejected the idea, believing it would cause civil war with Verstappen (some suggestions that Horner is cooling on Verstappen due to his alliance with Marko, his non-existent personal support and his lukewarm statements on continuing with Red Bull or even in F1 and is keen to line up a successor ASAP). Marko is apparently moderately keen on bringing back Albon, although Sainz is believed to be Horner's second choice. Amusingly, what might save Perez is him being a compromise choice between the two factions, as long as he keeps up this run of form (Perez has also indicated he does not believe he has a viable path to stay in F1 outside of Red Bull, and it's hard to see other teams picking him over other, more in-demand drivers or promising rookies, although you can't rule out maybe Haas or Williams taking him for the experience on a one-year). It does look like that Horner has accepted that Danny Ric is a spent force and he may even agree to a mid-season swap with Lawson if there is not a marked improvement. There is growing pressure and annoyance from the RB side that Tsunoda is not in the conversation, despite his outstanding (by RB standards) start to the season.

Another rumour swirling is that Stroll may voluntarily retire from F1 to either look at restarting his tennis career or move into the management side of Aston Martin, with a possibility of still racing in their hypercar programme. Apparently there's been some tough talk behind the scenes that if they manage to get the car into a race-winning position and Alonso gets another WC, there's no way they'd get a Constructor's unless Stroll ups his game massively (implausible at this stage) or they get another driver in. With Stroll getting more points this year, they'd be ahead of Mercedes in the championship, instead of behind. Tsunoda is apparently Honda's choice to move to Aston Martin when they switch in as their engine supplier, and apparently that has been seriously discussed, with the likelihood that Alonso will be gone by that point.

An interesting comment from Wolff suggests we may see some driver moves announced a lot sooner than the summer break, leading some to conclude he's already decided on Lewis' replacement.

A few media outlets reporting on the somnambulant start to the season and the potential damage to the TV ratings after last year's significant drop.

Edited April 8 by Werthead

[Loge]

Alonso has renewed his contract at Aston Martin. Which makes it more likely that Verstappen goes to Mercedes if the situation at Red Bull escalates.

[Werthead]

Alonso staying at Aston Martin cuts off Horner's preferred replacement for Perez. Alongside Perez's increased form, Perez might be doing what he needs to stay put at Red Bull.

That does limit Sainz's room to manoeuvre. Toto seems to be getting more balshy about directly promoting Antonelli to Mercedes without an intermediary stop at Williams. Even if he was willing to put Antonelli into Williams, that's only a 1-2 year deal for Sainz. Sainz may figure two more seasons racing in a top four team, and importantly into the 2026 regulation change, makes it worthwhile as he could impress. He probably thinks he'll get the better of Russell in equal machinery, so potentially could stay at Mercedes alongside Antonelli whilst Russell might have to look for another drive. Bit of a gamble tough.

It feels like the rumbling at Red Bull has decreased in the last week or so, but then again it could blow up at any time and Verstappen could walk, so Toto might be trying to keep his options open as long as possible.

[Loge]

Sainz could go to Sauber. They'll be Audi from 2026 on, and with the new regulations, they're as likely to be competitive as any of the big teams.

[TheLastWolf]

27 minutes ago, Loge said:

Sainz could go to Sauber. They'll be Audi from 2026 on, and with the new regulations, they're as likely to be competitive as any of the big teams.

Was hoping Mick would make a comeback in their colours. Or Seb. Or both . Sainz is good enough that multiple teams may vie for him even earlier. 

[Loge]

On 4/13/2024 at 8:27 AM, TheLastWolf said:

Was hoping Mick would make a comeback in their colours. Or Seb. Or both . Sainz is good enough that multiple teams may vie for him even earlier. 

What options are there that are better than Audi? Apparently he could go to Mercedes, but only on a short-term contract. Audi would be a long-term commitment. The downside is that he'd be in bad car in 2025.

Would be nice to see Mick racing in F1 again (he does WEC with Renault), but I don't know how realistic that is. Seb seems to miss racing but I don't think he'd commit to F1 full time again. He did a WEC test with Porsche, though. Maybe he'll race for them in 2025. 

Meanwhile, there's concern about the 2026 engine rules. In simulator tests, the cars were slower than F2... But 2026 is the year Alonso is powered by Honda again, so it's kind of appropriate.

 

[Werthead]

The new regs are causing issues. By eliminating downforce (to reduce dirty air), the cars don't stick to the track as easily and without a huge power increase from the engine (which will stay the same as now, only generating more from the battery) that means the cars will either 1) go slower or 2) take off. I think the idea is that the cars will be at least somewhat lighter (due to more power coming from a battery rather than actual engine parts), which actually exacerbates the problem of the car being blasted into the air.

I've seen some ideas about they maybe going in a different direction with aero and slimming the cars down to the 2010-2016 level (which look almost comically narrow by today's standards), which should reduce aero backwash from a smaller crossframe and also improve the racing at narrower circuits. Not sure how seriously that is being considered for 2026, because the design needs to lock imminently (also the dirty air problem was definitely still present before 2017, if not as bad).

The active aero seems to be part of the solution, but it's also hideously complicated to get it working on both wings simultaneously, so there's some angsting about that.

Sainz, meanwhile, seems to be down to deciding between Mercedes, Red Bull and Audi, with Mercedes seen more as a long shot. Audi have apparently made a money offer that Red Bull cannot match, but Red Bull's form is powerfully persuasive.