NZers and Aussies: Switching it up

[Skyrazer]

Yes the way the Senate is structured, it attracts too many freeloaders and deadweights who come in via a top ticket on a major party and then just use their ultra-safe position to mooch off a very generous taxpayer-funded wage while dicking around and doing SFA.

Dunno how you could restructure it though to prevent this sort of thing. Maybe we should just do what NZ did and abolish the upper-house....

[The Anti-Targ]

It seems to have been no worse at running the country than having an upper house.

[Jeor]

Given the creation of the Senate was based around giving states equal representation (as compared to the population-based electorates of the House of Reps), you'll have a lot of small states fighting against the abolition of an upper house. Given what we all know of Australian referendum, a constitutional amendment to abolish the Senate would have no chance of passing.

I always thought if I wanted to go into politics the smoothest path would be as a Senator, as you wouldn't have to really bother about being elected. As long as you were listed high up in the party preferences you'd be fine. Of course, that requires a totally different skill set to ingratiate yourself with the party hierarchy...

There have been some good, talented people that have come from the Senate, though. I like Simon Birmingham, for instance, as the senior moderate in the Liberal party. And it increases the talent pool from which to pick ministers, which is already small if you only count the 75+ members of the governing party in the House of Reps.

[The Anti-Targ]

4 hours ago, Jeor said:

Given the creation of the Senate was based around giving states equal representation (as compared to the population-based electorates of the House of Reps), you'll have a lot of small states fighting against the abolition of an upper house. Given what we all know of Australian referendum, a constitutional amendment to abolish the Senate would have no chance of passing.

I always thought if I wanted to go into politics the smoothest path would be as a Senator, as you wouldn't have to really bother about being elected. As long as you were listed high up in the party preferences you'd be fine. Of course, that requires a totally different skill set to ingratiate yourself with the party hierarchy...

There have been some good, talented people that have come from the Senate, though. I like Simon Birmingham, for instance, as the senior moderate in the Liberal party. And it increases the talent pool from which to pick ministers, which is already small if you only count the 75+ members of the governing party in the House of Reps.

How many ministers does the federal govt normally have? Our govt usually has a pool of only 60-63 people to pick from and that's usually at least 2 parties. Meaning the majority partner in a coalition. Worse before MMP when parliament was only 95 MPs. Having 75+ MPs seems like plenty to choose from. But also 151 MPs for a country with Australia's population seems a bit on the small side given we have 120MPS with 1/5th the population, and Canada has more than double the MPs with 1.5x the population. Seems like Aus should really be more in the 200-220 MP range for comparability with Canada and about 250 for comparability with the UK. Though for comparability with the USA you would have only 33 MPs. And for comparability with NZ you would have 600. 

Of course the more seats you have in parliament the more parliament is dominated by urban MPs in a purely electorate based voting system.

In our news today there are a few headlines saying Aussie farmers get paid a higher milk price by our biggest dairy company (Fonterra) than NZ farmers. Interesting the difference between a country that sells the vast majority of its dairy products domestically and one where 95% of dairy production is exported. Australia also produces less than half as much milk as NZ, yet interestingly you still export some dairy products here (Bega cheese being the one that immediately springs to mind).

Edited June 22, 2023 by The Anti-Targ

[Paxter]

Support for The Voice is slipping according to Newspoll - both in terms of overall popularity and on a state-by-state basis.

I am fairly sure now that QLD will vote "No". The rest will probably be lineball.

Overall my assessment is what it often is: Australia is a fucked-up place. 

 

[Skyrazer]

I think a lot of it is coming down to bad timing.

Fact is, the country is facing a lot of pressing issues at the moment like a housing crisis and historically high inflation. Severe challengers that people are feeling the effects of acutely and many feel the Albanese govt is not doing enough to help. Then when they see so much focus on the voice they, rightly or wrongly, feel the govt doesn't have its priorities straight and then become susceptible to souring on the voice.

I don't mean to sound dismissive of the issues around indigenous people, but I feel if we weren't grappling with so many pressing issues at the moment, the voice would have an easier time getting through.

[The Anti-Targ]

Dealing with indigenous rights and justice is like American's dealing with gun violence, it's never the right time.

[Paxter]

20 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

I think a lot of it is coming down to bad timing.

Fact is, the country is facing a lot of pressing issues at the moment like a housing crisis and historically high inflation. Severe challengers that people are feeling the effects of acutely and many feel the Albanese govt is not doing enough to help. Then when they see so much focus on the voice they, rightly or wrongly, feel the govt doesn't have its priorities straight and then become susceptible to souring on the voice.

I don't mean to sound dismissive of the issues around indigenous people, but I feel if we weren't grappling with so many pressing issues at the moment, the voice would have an easier time getting through.

Indigenous affairs are pressing issues. Go to any indigenous community and the evidence is there. If Australians can't see that - they are fucked and need to get their heads out of their own arses. They should vote Dutton in next cycle and get the PM they deserve. It's pathetic. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by Paxter

[The Anti-Targ]

Seems to lay out the strategic political landscape pretty well

The main question seems to be whether in the next election the electorate decides to say, fuck it if we're going to get shit policies we'll just re-elect the shit party, or if the electorate will do what this ad hopes and elect not-shit MPs to force a minority govt / hung parliament / coalition.

I assume slightly evoking the Coke logo for Shit-lite was deliberate.

[Skyrazer]

1 hour ago, Paxter said:

Indigenous affairs are pressing issues. Go to any indigenous community and the evidence is there. If Australians can't see that - they are fucked and need to get their heads out of their own arses. They should vote Dutton in next cycle and get the PM they deserve. It's pathetic. 

I don't disagree and I fully intend to vote yes myself.

But people are going to be people and if they're too preoccupied with issues impacting themselves, they're just going to care less about other people's issues. I've already heard people saying things like "why is the govt concentrating on things like the voice when they should be doing more for housing and CoL". When people are distressed over something, they want it to be addressed first and foremost, everything else be damned.

Is it logical or fair? No. But people are just self-centered like that and it unfortunately has a negative impact on the voice even though it really shouldn't.

[Paxter]

Or maybe they’re just racist arseholes fed up with land acknowledgments looking for an excuse to vote no?

Sometimes the simple answer is the correct one.

[karaddin]

I don't feel Albo is doing a good job of convincing people they should vote yes to it, so I'm pessimistic about it's prospects as well. At this point I worry about the damage a no vote will do to the indigenous community and the opportunity cost of trying and failing and half hope they end up delaying it until there's someone that can do it justice.

I'll vote yes regardless and try convince my family to do the same, but it's such a cynically predictable trajectory. 

[Skyrazer]

4 hours ago, Paxter said:

Or maybe they’re just racist arseholes fed up with land acknowledgments looking for an excuse to vote no?

Sometimes the simple answer is the correct one.

Racists were always going to vote no, no matter what. It doesn't really explain the recent decline in support.

2 hours ago, karaddin said:

I don't feel Albo is doing a good job of convincing people they should vote yes to it, so I'm pessimistic about it's prospects as well. At this point I worry about the damage a no vote will do to the indigenous community and the opportunity cost of trying and failing and half hope they end up delaying it until there's someone that can do it justice.

I'll vote yes regardless and try convince my family to do the same, but it's such a cynically predictable trajectory. 

Yeah if it bombs, we won't be revisiting constitutional recognition again for decades. Probably also torpedo any prospects for a republic referendum as well any time soon.

Support for it seems to have been tightly woven into approval for Labor/Albo and we've seen support for the voice decline in step with Labor/Albo's approval rating. It seems if people aren't happy with Labor, they're not going to be happy with the voice, hence why I linked the deteriorating economic factors into the fold and the bad timing of it all.

 

Edited June 27, 2023 by Skyrazer

[Paxter]

13 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

Racists were always going to vote no, no matter what. It doesn't really explain the recent decline in support.

A lot of formerly undecided voters have switched to no. Perhaps they were just masking their intentions earlier. 

[The Anti-Targ]

In diplomacy we have a rule, never ask a question if you might not like the answer. Or to put it another way only ask a question if you already know what the answer will be.

I feel like going directly to the electorate on some issues is a bad idea unless you are very sure about the answer the electorate will give. If you have to go to the electorate to make a constitutional change it's better to wait until you are virtually certain of a majority because the social discourse on the topic in most forums across a wide spectrum of people is favourable to the change. Clearly the voice needs more soft power influence on the electorate to get that committed majority and it would be bad to have the referendum when the result is uncertain. Better to wait 5 more years and put in more spade work, than the get a no result now and not be able to meaningfully revisit the question for 20 years.

And even if you are fairly certain, check again. We all know how the Brexit vote went despite almost everyone expecting the opposite outcome, even most people who campaigned for Brexit.

I guess the other rule when it comes to the masses is, always expect the people to disappoint you.

[Paxter]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I guess the other rule when it comes to the masses is, always expect the people to disappoint you.

This.

[Jeor]

It's too late to go back now, but in retrospect it would have been safer to go for the constitutional amendment for recognition and legislate the Voice, and dare the Opposition to repeal it. I know that would get derided as too small a target, but constitutional recognition is still a decent win and as has been said, with referendums you don't want any doubt. A no vote will be a terrible result and destroy morale on this issue.

There's still time between now and October for Albanese and co to get into gear. It may be as time draws closer that people will be a bit more focused on it, they'll just have to hope that people aren't locked into "No" yet. 

[Ser Camaris]

Greetings, my Antipodean peeps! Great to see that this thread is still going on in some form!

Was wondering how many people there are in New Zealand who might interested in a catch up? Agrivhaine and I will be there in early August and I was thinking of maybe having a open dinner/drinks on one of our nights in each of Wellington and Auckland to catch up with anyone who is around? I've been out of the loop for a while, though!

Anyway, hope life is treating you all well. :-)

Edited June 30, 2023 by Ser Camaris

[Jeor]

Hey @Ser Camaris! Great to see you, it has been a while. Sadly I'm not in NZ, but hope you're able to get something together.

Hope you've been well!

[Ser Camaris]

20 hours ago, Jeor said:

Hey @Ser Camaris! Great to see you, it has been a while. Sadly I'm not in NZ, but hope you're able to get something together.

Hope you've been well!

Thanks, Jeor! :-) I am hoping to get to Sydney in either Sept or early 2024 and hope to see the Sydney crew then! Miss you all. :-)