How Come No One is Suspicious about Melara's death?

[Craving Peaches]

2 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

In CK III child rulers can take a decision to "meet peers", sort of like "host feast" for the children. In one of the events one of the children disappear from surface while swimming and the options are help, call for help or "I'm sure s/he went back home" for some reason this third option is so common with the ai, in a decent sized kingdom realm almost every one of these meetings end up with at least one drowned child.

I had a small, compact and centralised duchy where I owned all the holdings except the barony level ones. I was focused on buildings and tech and most importantly my breeding program. Anyone with desirable traits I had married to members of my dynasty. Any member of my dynasty with 'defects' was purged. I had to kill like seven grandsons with one ruler who got called 'bewitched'. Fun times.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 minute ago, Craving Peaches said:

I had a small, compact and centralised duchy where I owned all the holdings except the barony level ones. I was focused on buildings and tech and most importantly my breeding program. Anyone with desirable traits I had married to members of my dynasty. Any member of my dynasty with 'defects' was purged. I had to kill like seven grandsons with one ruler who got called 'bewitched'. Fun times.

I never actually killed any members of my family on purpose, though I did try to get rid of useless heirs by appointing them as commanders, it never actually worked. High martial strong sons leading would either get captured, killed or maimed while the drooling retard that has the inbred trait cause you married your 4th cousin who is the only heir of her duke father would navigate the battlefield like it's nothing, even killing enemys top fighters in duels. like wtf, the guy barely knows the pointy end from the end he should grip.

[Quoth the raven,]

No one?  Oh no.  Not no one.  Her kin folks were.  But what could they do.  They don't dare offend Tywin and Jaime. 

[EggBlue]

2 hours ago, Raven Princling said:

Tywin's influence and Cersei's acting, I assume.

As for whether she killed Melara or not, it is heavily implied that she did kill her or, at the very least, not help her. It is not directly spelled out, but I assume we will have more conclusive evidence in the future books. It is possible she did not directly kill Melara (or it was an accident), of course, but the hints are suggesting otherwise. The only thing I do not understand about this though: why would Cersei kill Melara and deliberately fulfil the prophecy she wanted to believe was fake? I know the whole thing is supposed to be self-fulfilling (the more Cersei tries to avoid it, the more it comes true), but, as dumb as this is about to sound, I think she would wait at least some time before doing anything. To make sure the prophecy is not fulfilled and Melara lives that night. Unless the girls had a fight or argument that escalated, of course.

Cersei believes if they don't talk about the prophecy it won't come true .

Quote

She could still hear Melara Hetherspoon insisting that if they never spoke about the prophecies, they would not come true. She was not so silent in the well, though. She screamed and shouted. 

so , she shuts Melara up , but she doesn't shut up as she should . Cersei is also stupid and extremely self-centered . it wouldn't be out of character if in an effort to avoid her own prophecy , she totally forgets about Melara's and make it come true.

Cersei's story in the Feast is about how she creates her own problems. it's evident in her problems with the High Sparrow , Margery and Aurone Waters . the prophecy seems to be just another manifestation of this theme in another (spicier) form. funny thing both her little brothers are demons of her own creation too . one was imitating fools to get a laugh from her as children and the other had been her foolish golden boy for years . yet , one is planning to rape and kill her , the other ignores her pleas. and same goes for every other possible valnquers ; be it Aegon , Jon , Tommen , .... 

[Raven Princling]

56 minutes ago, EggBlue said:

Cersei believes if they don't talk about the prophecy it won't come true .

so , she shuts Melara up , but she doesn't shut up as she should . Cersei is also stupid and extremely self-centered . it wouldn't be out of character if in an effort to avoid her own prophecy , she totally forgets about Melara's and make it come true.

Thank you, I had forgotten about that line (not speaking about the prophecy). This would explain it and makes total sense!

[Evolett]

I don't think Cersei pushed Melara into the well but I think she likely made a conscious decision to not go for help and let her die. Later she justifies this failure to seek assistance by telling herself that Melara and Jeyne betrayed her. Judging by her dream, two driving motives stand out. One is to avoid speaking of the unsettling prophecy, as @EggBlue points out:

1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

Cersei believes if they don't talk about the prophecy it won't come true .

Quote

She could still hear Melara Hetherspoon insisting that if they never spoke about the prophecies, they would not come true. She was not so silent in the well, though. She screamed and shouted. 

so , she shuts Melara up , but she doesn't shut up as she should.

The other is jealousy and anger over Melara presuming to marry Jamie, in other words, Melara taking her twin from her, whom she was extremely possessive about (later seeing to it that he joins the Kingsguard)  - totally out of the question in Cersei's mind. She felt as just as strongly about that at ten.

Quote

“Will I marry Jaime?” she blurted out. You stupid girl, the queen thought, angry even now. Jaime does not even know you are alive. Back then her brother lived only for swords and dogs and horses … and for her, his twin. 

 

Between the lines, the account of her dream suggests Maggy was responsible for Melara falling into the well. Cersei was extremely rude to the sorceress, insisting upon having their fortunes told despite Maggy telling them to leave. After the session, she insults the woman, calling her a liar and abusing her with vile names. She tops it off by throwing a potion into Maggy's eyes. Maggy predicted a death right at the beginning, specifically pinning it on Melara  after Cersei's insults:

Quote

“Not Jaime, nor any other man,” said Maggy. “Worms will have your maidenhead. Your death is here tonight, little one. Can you smell her breath? She is very close.” “The only breath we smell is yours,” said Cersei.

The bolded suggests the murderer is in the room and I believe Maggy refers to both herself and Cersei. The telling itself involved blood magic and blood continues to drip from Cersei's hand during the session. Maggy screams and curses them in her language after Cersei throws the potion at her, perhaps those words were spells that ultimately cause Melara to stumble into the well.
After being called a liar and abused so grieviously, Maggy's motivation would be to prove to Cersei that her prophecies will come to pass. She probably saw all this coming the moment the girls entered the tent and tried to avert it by asking them to leave. Poor Melara ended up a victim of a power struggle between the two. 

[Springwatch]

10 hours ago, EggBlue said:

Cersei believes if they don't talk about the prophecy it won't come true .

Good, but she does want to be queen though. She wants that bit to come true.

[Evolett]

Could it be Melara's body was never found? Cersei never told anyone about the prophecy until a couple of decades later.  The three girls visited Maggy secretly at night, when they were supposed to be in bed. Jeyne Farman left the group in fear but she knew Cersei and Melara stayed to hear the sorceresses prophecies. If Cersei failed to get help, Melara's disappearance may not have drawn attention until days later. Upon questioning, Jeyne may have then confessed to leaving the Castle grounds at night but would not have known what transpired afterwards. Perhaps this is why Cersei felt betrayed by Jeyne as well as by Melara. Jeyne's information would put Cersei in the spotlight too, forcing her to lie about Melara's whereabouts. I think Cersei definitely left her to die. The least she could have done was let a bucket down for Melara to hold on to while she went for help. But that would have meant owning up to the secret night trip as well. 

We know babies and children were thrown down wells. It's never mentioned that bodies were retrieved afterwards. We don't know what lives in the depths of the waters feeding the well either but Maggy stating that worms will have her maidenhead may be a clue to what became of her after drowning. That and her rather odd family name, Hetherspoon. The spoon is also depicted on the house sigil. Perhaps the poor girl was eaten. We don't learn anything about the house, except her father being a landed knight. 

If Cersei lied about the return journey, and Melara's whereabouts after that, there's a good chance Melara's body was never recovered. No doubt there was a hue and cry. They would have searched for her to no avail, given up and declared her missing.