Is Walder Frey an Idiot?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

Yeah, spamming dozens of lawful sons and daughters, dozens more of bastards and hundreds of grandchildren and great-grandchildren doesn't give much value to marriage with House Frey. 

Why would you marry your son or daughter to them, knowing that they will most certainely never inherit of the Twins or any other castle, and that it still won't make House Frey a reliable ally ?

[Hugorfonics]

5 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

Defeated in a very limited context. Edmure successfully denied Tywin a crossing of the Fords, when Tywin's objective was to march West.

Killed some Lannister soldiers tho

5 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

But Tywins army was still in good order - when Tywin changed objective to defense of Kings Landing, he was quickly able to march that army away and fight another battle.

Tywin piggybacked onto Mace who came just in time to watch Tyrion burn Stannis' men to a crisp. 

5 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

If Tywin had changed his objective back to harassing the Riverlands (as it had been at the start of the war when he sent out raiders) then the Riverlands would have still been hard to protect

And many more Lannister men would be dead. That's why Tywin had to change his style, because Edmure and Robb were better then him.

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

One of them is wrecked and the other is thinly populated.

It's not that wrecked, Edmures been holding it down.

And the North is not thinly populated!

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Robb doesn't have as many men as the Tyrells, and he lacks the food supplies which will be very important

I don't know if that's true, because he has two kingdoms and at least one of them has reserves. And besides, Tyrell is a joke when it comes to, um, everything.

And Robb was in the west for some of the war eating Tywins food, so Lannister men would be starving too.

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I like Robb and I'm not trying to insult him, I just don't think it's possible for him to win if he decides to hold on to the Riverlands as well.

I'm 99% sure that the books will end with the North and the Riverlands successfully seceding from the tyrannical south. (Probably the Iron Islands and the Vale as well, although I'm not sure if they'll be united with Winterfell)

[Craving Peaches]

10 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

And the North is not thinly populated!

It is for its size. Point is Robb doesn't have as many men. Or food. Which you want in a war of attrition.

11 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

And besides, Tyrell is a joke when it comes to, um, everything.

He's not commanding the army so?

12 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

It's not that wrecked,

It is, characters speak about it all the time and we see the devastation first hand from multiple points of view.

[SeanF]

3 hours ago, Only 89 selfies today said:

Walder trusted the Starks at the beginning of their friendship.  He honestly thought the Starks would pay up.  Then Robb broke his solemn promise and the Starks' honor was no longer worth cow dung.  The Starks come begging for help again and this time Walder demanded payment in advance.  He could and should have asked for more.  But there will be no value if their side of the war loses.  Robb's leadership looked shaky.  The idiot just killed Rickard Karstark.  So who will be next on the block?  

It is okay to love him or hate him, but Walder Frey did what he thought was best for his family's security.  He picked the winning side and followed Tywin's orders to trap the wolf and kill him.  Lame Lothar and Roose Bolton trapped the wolf and stopped the Stark's rebellion from going any further.  

And look how well it’s turned out for House Frey.  Even their allies despise them.  To Jaime, they’re merely cannon-fodder.

When the Lannisters say “jump” Walder and his brood can only say “how high?” because no one else will touch them

[SeanF]

36 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

A lot of this is just Walder's paranoia and bitterness. Clearly plenty of people are prepared to marry Freys. Walder has accumulated multiple wives from different houses, and most of his sons are married. One of them is married to a Lannister.

What's actually going on is four things:

1) Walder thinks his house should be treated like a great house when it comes to marriage politics, and can't accept that the Freys aren't a great house.

2) He desperately wants a Tully marriage, but the Tullys have been a small family for a couple of generations without many spare kids, and thanks to point (1) they're sensibly prioritising higher-status marriages for the few they have.

3) Walder's family is way too big. He can't expect to get profitable marriages for all of them because there aren't enough eligible candidates lying around, and even if there were, you can't expect everyone in Westeros just to marry Freys exclusively. Junior Freys are not particularly desirable matches because they don't stand to inherit anything, and the family is so big that (a) there are loads of junior Freys and (b) the chances of any given junior Frey actually inheriting due to mishaps in the senior line are very small.

4) Walder himself is a complete twat, and apparently always has been (see the Dunk & Egg stories). He doesn't seem to make much effort to charm other nobles or even to ingratiate himself with the Tullys, the marriage he wants most. In fact he seems to make a point of pissing Hoster Tully off during the Rebellion. So why would anyone want to do him a favour and marry one of his kids anyway?

So what we have is in fact an almost entirely self-created problem that Walder uses as an excuse for perpetuating his unpleasantness in what becomes a vicious circle.

He’s so deluded with grandeur that he offers himself as a husband to Arianne Martell.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

Look at the difference of treatment and respect between Walder and most of his descendants, and the members of House Frey who are actually good, honorable and loyal persons such as Stevron, Perwyn, Olyvar and their ancestor Forrest. 

Does anyone seriously wonder why current House Frey is so looked down upon and despised, and if their treatment is undeserved ?

[Hugorfonics]

2 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

It is for its size.

That's a good assumption because otherwise it'd be massive. But it is an assumption. Fact is Robert and Jojen both ask Stark where all their men are and Stark says "around" which doesn't sound thinly populated at all

4 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Point is Robb doesn't have as many men. Or food.

He never laments on the lack of supplies or fears his force too small to do damage 

5 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Which you want in a war of attrition.

What you want is to not be in KL thusly making yourself the number one enemy of the realm. (Dorne, Stannis, Golden Company, etc. This is not a game for two.)

7 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

He's not commanding the army so?

He tells them where to go, like now into KL despite the war continuing in the north and Riverlands, and now Stormlands and even his home of the reach. But he has them in KL because he's a joke.

9 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

It is, characters speak about it all the time and we see the devastation first hand from multiple points of view.

Darry looks bad, but as Edmure planned much of the Riverlands is not Darry.

[Alester Florent]

I do agree that Robb has the ability to fight Tywin to something close to a standstill even after the Blackwater. I don't think he has the ability to decisively win the war, and to exhaust Tywin requires a sustained run of almost uninterrupted victories in the field, which Robb achieved during his own lifetime but he can't be guaranteed to continue. The war is worth continuing, but it becomes much more a war of survival than it had been until that point where Robb had been on the front foot.

I don't think the Golden Company are seriously factored into the game of thrones in Westeros by any of the players (except Varys) until they show up with Aegon, by which point only the Lannisters and Greyjoys are still going concerns in terms of active prosecution of the war. There's no particular reason to believe they'll get involved: they're under contract to someone else, the Blackfyres are gone, they've turned Viserys down, and nobody knows Aegon exists. If Tywin, Robb, Stannis, Renly or Balon were aware they were in play, we would probably see the earlier stages of the war handled very differently.

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

?

Half asleep hit keypad

[Hugorfonics]

18 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

, and to exhaust Tywin requires a sustained run of almost uninterrupted victories in the field, which Robb achieved during his own lifetime but he can't be guaranteed to continue.

Word. Tywin was in the same boat and thusly had to rely on murder and deceit. 

And murder and deceit happens to the temporary benefit of Lannister, but definitely not for Frey lol.

21 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

I don't think the Golden Company are seriously factored into the game of thrones in Westeros by any of the players (except Varys) until they show up with Aegon, by which point only the Lannisters and Greyjoys are still going concerns in terms of active prosecution of the war.

Stannis? Catelyn? There's still plenty of war out there.

22 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

There's no particular reason to believe they'll get involved: they're under contract to someone else

But they're not. That's the whole thing, the GC never breaks it's contract, so now that it has it doesn't take red priest to see where this is headed.

24 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

If Tywin, Robb, Stannis, Renly or Balon were aware they were in play, we would probably see the earlier stages of the war handled very differently.

They all, or mainly Renly, knows Dany is a thing.

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, Adelstein said:

A lot of this is just Walder's paranoia and bitterness. Clearly plenty of people are prepared to marry Freys. Walder has accumulated multiple wives from different houses, and most of his sons are married. One of them is married to a Lannister.

What's actually going on is four things:

1) Walder thinks his house should be treated like a great house when it comes to marriage politics, and can't accept that the Freys aren't a great house.

2) He desperately wants a Tully marriage, but the Tullys have been a small family for a couple of generations without many spare kids, and thanks to point (1) they're sensibly prioritising higher-status marriages for the few they have.

3) Walder's family is way too big. He can't expect to get profitable marriages for all of them because there aren't enough eligible candidates lying around, and even if there were, you can't expect everyone in Westeros just to marry Freys exclusively. Junior Freys are not particularly desirable matches because they don't stand to inherit anything, and the family is so big that (a) there are loads of junior Freys and (b) the chances of any given junior Frey actually inheriting due to mishaps in the senior line are very small.

4) Walder himself is a complete twat, and apparently always has been (see the Dunk & Egg stories). He doesn't seem to make much effort to charm other nobles or even to ingratiate himself with the Tullys, the marriage he wants most. In fact he seems to make a point of pissing Hoster Tully off during the Rebellion. So why would anyone want to do him a favour and marry one of his kids anyway?

So what we have is in fact an almost entirely self-created problem that Walder uses as an excuse for perpetuating his unpleasantness in what becomes a vicious circle.

Yeah sorta agree its kinda self inflicted

Its no accident his last 2-3 marriages seem to be of lesser and lesser known houses than his 1st ones.  The more kids he has the less important a marriage is an an alliance to them  too.

Hence a marriage to a new dynasty appeals to him with robb and of course once he sides with tywin theres sooo many marriages ....guy will have to sell the silverware to afford all the dowries there (esp for  clever old rooses pick )

[Alester Florent]

12 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Stannis? Catelyn? There's still plenty of war out there.

But they're not. That's the whole thing, the GC never breaks it's contract, so now that it has it doesn't take red priest to see where this is headed.

They all, or mainly Renly, knows Dany is a thing.

Is there any particular reason for any of them to take Dany seriously as a threat? I can't remember what the flow of information from the east is like but we start off with her marriage to Khal Drogo, then nothing happens because KD doesn't care, then he briefly becomes interested before dying, then Dany heads off in the wrong direction and gets mired in Slaver's Bay. Even if they think her dragons may cause problems in future, she's miles away and heading further off, and seems to be empire-building on the far side of the continent. We know she's planning to come back to Westeros, but do they?

Stannis after the Blackwater is a minor annoyance for the Lannisters to mop up when they get the chance. It's not until he gets to the Wall and starts recruiting northerners with Braavosi money that he becomes a relevant factor in the game of thrones again, and that doesn't - and can't! - happen until after Robb is dead.

Likewise, to the power players, the BWB is an inconvenience, picking off stragglers and ill-guarded supply wagons but not preseting a threat to an actual army in the field, or likely to take a fortress by siege. And again, Lady Stoneheart and her revenge drive isn't a thing until after Robb is dead, obviously, and before that the BWB are basically just Robin Hood, trying to protect local smallfolk but without any real political agenda, so they're not something that is likely to meaningfully interfere with the Robb/Tywin conflict.

[Bendric Dayne]

4 hours ago, Only 89 selfies today said:

Then Robb broke his solemn promise and the Starks' honor was no longer worth cow dung.

I can see how Walder Frey might feel like this is true, but Robb Stark is still one of the most honorable people in Westeros. He wasn't perfect and made a mistake in a moment when he was vulnerable because in the end he is a human. He owned up to his mistake by acting honorably, even though it meant breaking his vow to the Freys. Making a mistake does not make Robb a dishonorable person. He still acts as honorably as he can, and there isn't really anyone in Westeros turning around and saying Robb Stark is dishonorable other than Walder Frey who has a right to feel that way. But I wouldn't say that Robb Stark's honor isn't worth anything because of one mistake. Even killing Rickard Karstark, which did not benefit him at all since he would lose the Karstark men, he did this because it is what honor demanded. So I'd still say that Robb is honorable. 

 

4 hours ago, Only 89 selfies today said:

It is okay to love him or hate him, but Walder Frey did what he thought was best for his family's security.  He picked the winning side and followed Tywin's orders to trap the wolf and kill him.  Lame Lothar and Roose Bolton trapped the wolf and stopped the Stark's rebellion from going any further.  

I don't think it is okay to love Walder Frey. Even before the RW there was no reason to love him. You don't have to hate him, but to love the dude? What reason would anyone have for loving this guy? And yeah siding with the Lannisters was obviously the smartest decision at this point, but the RW? It was unnecessary and pretty stupid from Walder's part to go through with it. Siding with the Lannisters was enough for the war to be effectively over. He did not have to doom his house into having the worst reputation in Westeros to be on the winning side of the war; he could have done so without the RW.

[Bendric Dayne]

2 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Now through tywins sister theres always been a back channel open   a way for freys to switch to the side thats clearly gonna win AND be deeply embedded into the new regime.

I'd say what really gave him just cause to switch sides was the fact that Robb Stark broke his vows. He gave his allegiance to Robb Stark knowing that there was a Frey married to a Lannister. So if Robb never breaks his vows, Walder would look like a traitor if he switched sides on the basis that one of his own was married to a Lannister when that was already true when he allied himself with Robb. When Robb broke his vows with the Freys, Walder was put in a pretty great position to once again be able to pick sides in the middle of the war. Having seen how both sides were doing he was basically given an "out" if he wanted it from Robb's side, but he also had the option to stay with Robb if he thought Robb was going to go on and win.

Other houses like say, the Maderlys, would never be in a position like this since they are Stark bannermen, and switching sides would make them look like traitors. This would make them look untrustworthy to other houses when it came to future alliances. The Freys were given the chance to switch sides without it hurting their reputation since Robb broke his vows. Yet somehow they managed to muck it up and ended up with he worst reputation out of any of the houses in Westeros. 

[SeanF]

51 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

Is there any particular reason for any of them to take Dany seriously as a threat? I can't remember what the flow of information from the east is like but we start off with her marriage to Khal Drogo, then nothing happens because KD doesn't care, then he briefly becomes interested before dying, then Dany heads off in the wrong direction and gets mired in Slaver's Bay. Even if they think her dragons may cause problems in future, she's miles away and heading further off, and seems to be empire-building on the far side of the continent. We know she's planning to come back to Westeros, but do they?

Stannis after the Blackwater is a minor annoyance for the Lannisters to mop up when they get the chance. It's not until he gets to the Wall and starts recruiting northerners with Braavosi money that he becomes a relevant factor in the game of thrones again, and that doesn't - and can't! - happen until after Robb is dead.

Likewise, to the power players, the BWB is an inconvenience, picking off stragglers and ill-guarded supply wagons but not preseting a threat to an actual army in the field, or likely to take a fortress by siege. And again, Lady Stoneheart and her revenge drive isn't a thing until after Robb is dead, obviously, and before that the BWB are basically just Robin Hood, trying to protect local smallfolk but without any real political agenda, so they're not something that is likely to meaningfully interfere with the Robb/Tywin conflict.

People have started to hear about Daenerys.  Tales of slave uprisings have reached Oldtown, and Sarella/Alleras drinks a toast to her, at the start of AFFC.

So, I think some power brokers may have it at the back of their minds that she could be a threat, and some Targaryen loyalists might dream of her return, but at this stage, it's nothing imminent.

[astarkchoice]

5 minutes ago, Bendric Dayne said:

I'd say what really gave him just cause to switch sides was the fact that Robb Stark broke his vows. He gave his allegiance to Robb Stark knowing that there was a Frey married to a Lannister. So if Robb never breaks his vows, Walder would look like a traitor if he switched sides on the basis that one of his own was married to a Lannister when that was already true when he allied himself with Robb. When Robb broke his vows with the Freys, Walder was put in a pretty great position to once again be able to pick sides in the middle of the war. Having seen how both sides were doing he was basically given an "out" if he wanted it from Robb's side, but he also had the option to stay with Robb if he thought Robb was going to go on and win.

Other houses like say, the Maderlys, would never be in a position like this since they are Stark bannermen, and switching sides would make them look like traitors. This would make them look untrustworthy to other houses when it came to future alliances. The Freys were given the chance to switch sides without it hurting their reputation since Robb broke his vows. Yet somehow they managed to muck it up and ended up with he worst reputation out of any of the houses in Westeros. 

Ooh yeah i meant having a sister of tywins married to a frey gives him a practical.means to communicate with tywin on the down low. 

 

Positon wise he did soil their rep badly but as they say history is written by the victors and memories fade as an old man like him knows. He ensures hes well tied into the new lannister/tyrell royal house as a reward. He gets 3 marriage ties to the manderlys, one to roose , 2 to lannisters (3 counting a bastard born one) and riverrun now frey property....all seems to have gone well for his house but as with all plans they collapse in the face of the enemy.....as lord manderlys delicious pie ,stannis the mannis  and the brotherhoods upcomming  red wedding 'tribute act' will probably show.

[SeanF]

16 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Ooh yeah i meant having a sister of tywins married to a frey gives him a practical.means to communicate with tywin on the down low. 

 

Positon wise he did soil their rep badly but as they say history is written by the victors and memories fade as an old man like him knows. He ensures hes well tied into the new lannister/tyrell royal house as a reward. He gets 3 marriage ties to the manderlys, one to roose , 2 to lannisters (3 counting a bastard born one) and riverrun now frey property....all seems to have gone well for his house but as with all plans they collapse in the face of the enemy.....as lord manderlys delicious pie ,stannis the mannis  and the brotherhoods upcomming  red wedding 'tribute act' will probably show.

When I read "The Prince" for the first time, I was expecting to read something delightfully evil;  instead, I found myself reading  plain common sense for people in power.  

It's not a handbook to immorality or even amorality, but rather to pragmatism.  And, Macchiavelli makes the point that a ruler must at least appear to comply with the moral norms of his society, even if he does not truly adhere to them. That's what Walder Frey spectacularly failed to do.  Had Robb Stark died of a "chill", or a "bad belly", or fallen from a window, that could be put down to happenstance, whatever suspicions people might actually harbour.  What Walder did was make himself and family universally hated.

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, Adelstein said:

Is there any particular reason for any of them to take Dany seriously as a threat? I can't remember what the flow of information from the east is like but we start off with her marriage to Khal Drogo, then nothing happens because KD doesn't care, then he briefly becomes interested before dying, then Dany heads off in the wrong direction and gets mired in Slaver's Bay. Even if they think her dragons may cause problems in future, she's miles away and heading further off, and seems to be empire-building on the far side of the continent. We know she's planning to come back to Westeros, but do they?

Renly took her serious enough to try to kill her. 

There's very little information coming in, but it does start to trickle, especially as Dany loves showing off her dragons and talking about her Westeros.

1 hour ago, Adelstein said:

Stannis after the Blackwater is a minor annoyance for the Lannisters to mop up when they get the chance.

What's the chance? What the hell are they waiting for?

Cersei only takes out DS (allegedly) to get better access at arresting Marge. The Lannisters and co aren't exactly brilliant.

1 hour ago, Adelstein said:

It's not until he gets to the Wall and starts recruiting northerners with Braavosi money that he becomes a relevant factor in the game of thrones again

But that was bound to happen. Maybe not the wall (although definitely) but somewhere else. Tywin, like Aerys before him, does not have the muscle to rule 7 kingdoms 

Quote

"Did you turn into an utter fool when Tyrion shaved your beard? This is Stannis Baratheon. The man will fight to the bitter end and then some. If he is gone, it can only mean he intends to resume the war. Most likely he will land at Storm's End and try and rouse the storm lords. If so, he's finished. But a bolder man might roll the dice for Dorne. If he should win Sunspear to his cause, he might prolong this war for years.

 

1 hour ago, Adelstein said:

and that doesn't - and can't! - happen until after Robb is dead.

Why can't it? Of course it can. Stannis believes hes God's chosen and went to the wall to do his devine work. Robb isn't a factor.

1 hour ago, Adelstein said:

Likewise, to the power players, the BWB is an inconvenience, picking off stragglers and ill-guarded supply wagons but not preseting a threat to an actual army in the field, or likely to take a fortress by siege. And again, Lady Stoneheart and her revenge drive isn't a thing until after Robb is dead, obviously, and before that the BWB are basically just Robin Hood, trying to protect local smallfolk but without any real political agenda, so they're not something that is likely to meaningfully interfere with the Robb/Tywin conflict.

Since Beric stepped down and Catelyn took over there's definitely a higher sense of purpose within the brotherhood. They're a lot more devout too. But that whole revenge factor and the mostly pro northern sentiment against Lannister intrusion has always been there. And they keep growing in numbers too.

But you picked up on my specifics instead of my etc. Literally every kingdom is dealing with multiple issues right now and the more time progresses the less Lannister looks important. 

If Robb lived like one more month, probably less, the whole geopolitics of Westeros would have looked completely different.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

19 minutes ago, SeanF said:

When I read "The Prince" for the first time, I was expecting to read something delightfully evil;  instead, I found myself reading  plain common sense for people in power.  

It's not a handbook to immorality or even amorality, but rather to pragmatism.  And, Macchiavelli makes the point that a ruler must at least appear to comply with the moral norms of his society, even if he does not truly adhere to them. That's what Walder Frey spectacularly failed to do.  Had Robb Stark died of a "chill", or a "bad belly", or fallen from a window, that could be put down to happenstance, whatever suspicions people might actually harbour.  What Walder did was make himself and family universally hated.

Also Walder and his sons utterly failed to take in account that even the Lannisters would despise them, and the possibility that they might get used as scapegoats for the Red Wedding and discarded by them the moment they are no longer useful or if it's more practical to punish the Freys to appease the northerners and riverlanders, or that they will lose protection the moment the Lannister regime crumble. 

Not counting how Littlefinger is the Lannisters' Lord Paramount of the Trident instead of them. 

[Alester Florent]

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

What's the chance? What the hell are they waiting for?

Cersei only takes out DS (allegedly) to get better access at arresting Marge. The Lannisters and co aren't exactly brilliant.

But that was bound to happen. Maybe not the wall (although definitely) but somewhere else. Tywin, like Aerys before him, does not have the muscle to rule 7 kingdoms

Why can't it? Of course it can. Stannis believes hes God's chosen and went to the wall to do his devine work. Robb isn't a factor.

So long as Stannis is cooped up in Dragonstone he's not a threat and the Lannisters can besiege it until eventually the castle runs out of food and/or patience. Storm's End likewise. An assault on either castle would probably cost them more in men than is worthwhile (as the attack on Dragonstone arguably does). So Tywin can take his time until he has all his ducks in a row elsewhere - finalising the Reach marriage, getting Tyrion installed in the North, etc. Of course that goes to hell because of Tyrion, and Cersei orders the attack out of spite.

Stannis can go to the Wall and help Jon out, but his tour of the north, gathering men to support his cause, is reliant on being able to present himself as the avenger of Ned and protector of his children, and he's doing so on the advice and with the support of Jon, the last Stark of any stripe. He can't realistically do that while Robb, Ned's actual heir and crowned King in the North, is still around and campaigning, or at least not without Robb's support. And if Stannis goes up against Robb directly, Robb is likely to squash him without too much trouble.

It's Robb's death and the consequent Stark-vacuum in the North that opens the door for Stannis to move in. He can hang out in the Gift as long as he likes but he won't be able to move south without serious resistance.

I agree though that we're getting bogged down in specifics.