Is Walder Frey an Idiot?

[Bendric Dayne]

About halfway through A Storm of Swords this dude was in the best position out of any of the great houses in Westeros. He literally had the equivalent of a "swing vote" in Survivor. Whichever side he chose was going to win the war. However, it seems he barely took advantage of his position. Like if he wasn't happy with the Edmure marriage he could have bargained for more. Robb was clearly pretty desperate for the Frey forces and Walder should know that. So yeah he wasn't going to get the marriage he originally bargained for which was a king, but he could have bargained for more than Edmure to compensate. Robb didn't really have a choice; it was accept Walder Frey's proposal or surrender the war because he didn't have the numbers at that point. 

Likewise, Tywin was probably pretty desperate for the Frey's allegiance. He might have not needed their numbers to beat Robb, but he needed to ensure that the Freys would not go back to Robb. Walder could easily have threatened Tywin by telling him he would rejoin Robb; so he could have gotten a sweeter deal from Tywin. It seems like he didn't even try though. Like what did the Freys even get for switching sides? They became the most hated and untrustworthy house in all of Westeros and didn't get any marriages or anything from it. At least not any notable ones that I can remember. I guess a Frey is now Lord of Riverrun, but that might have been Tywin's plan anyways since it's the husband of Genna Lannister. 

So as it stands it would have been better for House Frey to just marry one of their girls to Edmure and rejoin Robb to beat the Lannisters. They could have/should have bargained for a marriage to Sansa as well, considering the Starks would either kill Tyrion or strip him of his titles and lands and send him to the NW. The stupidest thing Walder could have done was the RW. Like if you're doing something that risky you gotta at least bargain for a marriage with Joffrey or Tommen. Either way they should have bargained to not even do the RW. Joining their forces to the Lannisters would have been enough to see Robb lose/surrender in a way that doesn't make the Freys look like the absolute worst House in all of Westeros.

So if I'm bargaining with Tywin I'm saying that I need something big to put my reputation on the line with the RW, not just a royal pardon, which btw I don't even need if I go back to Robb and beat you which is a risk you should not be willing to take considering Robb has never lost a battle. Either that or I'm telling him that there is no way I'm doing something as stupid as the RW so sure I'll join my forces to yours for that royal pardon and that's that. I'm not putting my house's reputation on the line just for a royal pardon I don't really need if I win with the other side. So yeah the RW was the stupidest decision Walder could have made considering he was in a position of power. Going through with it only makes sense if you're putting your grandson or great grandson or great great grandson or whatever, in the Iron Throne. So for all those reasons I think Walder has to be one of the stupidest people in Westeros. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

Well yes, he and most of the Freys are idiots.  

The fact that they didn't even think for a moment that they would be more respected after the Red Wedding, nor that it could backfire on them in some way is quite telling.

[Craving Peaches]

2 minutes ago, Bendric Dayne said:

Joining their forces to the Lannisters would have been enough to see Robb lose/surrender in a way that doesn't make the Freys look like the absolute worst House in all of Westeros.

I don't think it would be possible for Robb to hold both the North and Riverlands long term against the Lannisters and the Tyrells after having lost the Karstarks. But it would take a lot to dislodge him if he decided to stay in the Riverlands and fight. Either way Tywin was facing casualties. So I agree Walder could really have made more use of his bargaining position. Why didn't he push for more? Because he's a coward. Didn't want to risk pushing Robb or Tywin too much.

[Bendric Dayne]

19 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I don't think it would be possible for Robb to hold both the North and Riverlands long term against the Lannisters and the Tyrells after having lost the Karstarks.

Why not? Robb feels he has a pretty decent chance of winning the war with the Freys at his side and he is a pretty able battle commander so I would trust in his judgement. Riverrun would have held a siege for a very long time as we saw in Jaime's chapters so they would have at least held Riverrun with the Tully forces that were holding it in AFFC. Other than Riverrun and the Twins (which both would be pretty safe) what else could Tywin do in the Riverlands given that he has already burned and pillaged most of it? Maybe take some small castles, but nothing too significant. As for the North, Robb would have had the Boltons still allied with him if the RW never happened, and we saw how the Boltons without the Starks took the North back from the Greyjoys, so with the Starks I think they would have been able to take back the North and hold it as well. Of course, nothing is certain in war so what you say can very much be the case, but I think if Robb felt he could win the war then I would agree with him. 

 

23 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

So I agree Walder could really have made more use of his bargaining position. Why didn't he push for more? Because he's a coward. Didn't want to risk pushing Robb or Tywin too much.

I agree that he is a coward, even though the RW was a pretty ballsy move. It could have payed off if he was justly compensated for it by Tywin by at least having Tommen marry a Frey. The fact that he risked everything with the RW without any real compensation, whilst having other options is super stupid. Like sure he is too much of a coward to bargain for better deals, but with the options he had in front of him, without bargaining, the RW was the stupidest choice he could make. So yeah the reason that he chose not to bargain is because he is a coward, but choosing to go along with the RW goes down to him being stupid. 

[Craving Peaches]

10 minutes ago, Bendric Dayne said:

Why not?

It's a geography issue. The Riverlands are hard to defend. Robb can't cover them all because he's outnumbered. He doesn't want to spread his forces too thin.

Robb is a good commander but you will suffer loses in any battle even if you win. Eventually I just think he'd be worn down by attrition unless he left the Riverlands to their fate and fortified the North. Not to mention the food supply would be impacted.

I think if Robb wants to 'win' he'd just have to cut his losses in the Riverlands and focus on getting rid of the Ironborn and fortifying the North. Once he takes back Moat Cailin he's safe, basically.

Edited February 18 by Craving Peaches

[Hugorfonics]

1 minute ago, Craving Peaches said:

It's a geography issue. The Riverlands are hard to defend. Robb can't cover them all because he's outnumbered. He doesn't want to spread his forces too thin.

That's Edmures exact strategy and it defeated Tywin and Gregor

2 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Robb is a good commander but you will suffer loses in any battle even if you win. Eventually I just think he'd be worn down by attrition

Robb commanded two kingdoms. That's twice as many as any of his advisories 

[Alester Florent]

I'm in the camp which believes the war was essentially unwinnable for Robb after the Blackwater. The Reach, Westerlands, and the vast majority of the Crownlands and Stormlands are now united in an alliance, with Dorne aligning itself with it too. The threat from Stannis is largely extinguished so that alliance can focus all its attention on Robb, but Robb has to fight on two fronts because of the Iron Islands. Robb has also lost Winterfell, which is a big blow to prestige.

But unwinnable doesn't mean hopeless. He has the resources and the talent that defeating him decisively on the battlefield or through taking his castles will be slow, bloody and expensive both in men and gold for Tywin - the sort of campaign which will grind down the patience of the Tyrells, the Stormlords (whose loyalty is probably already somewhat suspect, after being conned at the Blackwater) and his own vassals in the Westerlands. So a negotiated end to the war is fully achievable if it's Tywin in charge of the negotiations and not Joffrey. But any long-term strength in Robb's position is fully dependent on the cooperation of the Freys, as they hold the fulcrum which separates the two parts of his kingdom from each other - as well as controlling a large field army. With Frey cooperation, he might be able to force an acceptable deal with the Lannisters. Without it, he's finished.

Robb has been arguably a somewhat mediocre overlord for the Freys, so they don't owe him a great deal of personal loyalty. Siding with Robb is certainly a bigger gamble than siding with Tywin, as Tywin already has the advantage and is in a position to reward them. So I don't really blame Walder for picking Tywin, and it was probably the smart choice. The way he went about it, though, is unforgivable and he most likely underestimated the consequences this would have for the Freys and their station in Westeros.

[Bendric Dayne]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

It's a geography issue. The Riverlands are hard to defend. Robb can't cover them all because he's outnumbered. He doesn't want to spread his forces too thin.

Robb is a good commander but you will suffer loses in any battle even if you win. Eventually I just think he'd be worn down by attrition unless he left the Riverlands to their fate and fortified the North. Not to mention the food supply would be impacted.

I think if Robb wants to 'win' he'd just have to cut his losses in the Riverlands and focus on getting rid of the Ironborn and fortifying the North. Once he takes back Moat Cailin he's safe, basically.

Hmm, I guess I just always assumed that he would leave the Riverlands be. Wasn't it his plan to attack Casterly Rock or Lannisport to draw Tywin west? This would mean he leaves the Riverlands to their fate but forces Tywin to leave them be as well since he has to focus on Robb in the west. I think his plan for the Ironborn was to send the Boltons to deal with them, which they do end up doing (sure Ramsay burns Winterfell, but you can't say someone else is holding Winterfell). 

[Bendric Dayne]

32 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

I'm in the camp which believes the war was essentially unwinnable for Robb after the Blackwater. The Reach, Westerlands, and the vast majority of the Crownlands and Stormlands are now united in an alliance, with Dorne aligning itself with it too. The threat from Stannis is largely extinguished so that alliance can focus all its attention on Robb, but Robb has to fight on two fronts because of the Iron Islands. Robb has also lost Winterfell, which is a big blow to prestige.

But Robb knows all of this before the RW and feels that if the Freys rejoin him he can beat Tywin, which is the entire reason the RW happens. If Robb felt it was over, why even try to reconcile with the Freys? I don't know the exact numbers for the armies, but if Robb felt he could beat Tywin with the Freys at his side, then I'm inclined to believe him. He could have still lost, but he definitely thought the war was not over. His plan for the Ironborn was to send the Boltons to deal with them, which they end up doing. What his plan for beating Tywin was, I cannot be sure, but he seems to believe that he at least has a chance. 

 

43 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

But unwinnable doesn't mean hopeless. He has the resources and the talent that defeating him decisively on the battlefield or through taking his castles will be slow, bloody and expensive both in men and gold for Tywin - the sort of campaign which will grind down the patience of the Tyrells, the Stormlords (whose loyalty is probably already somewhat suspect, after being conned at the Blackwater) and his own vassals in the Westerlands. So a negotiated end to the war is fully achievable if it's Tywin in charge of the negotiations and not Joffrey. But any long-term strength in Robb's position is fully dependent on the cooperation of the Freys, as they hold the fulcrum which separates the two parts of his kingdom from each other - as well as controlling a large field army. With Frey cooperation, he might be able to force an acceptable deal with the Lannisters. Without it, he's finished.

At the very least Robb thought that with the Freys at his side he could persuade Tywin to negotiate a reasonable end, so maybe this was his ultimate plan at this point. What would be an acceptable deal though? Definitely to get Sansa back, but would Tywin concede to Robb remaining King in the North and the Riverlands? Maybe only the North, but then what happens to the Lords of the Riverlands if they stay within the rule of the realm, would they be punished? Forgiven? Would Tywin only concede to letting Robb remain Warden of the North, not King in the North? It would have been interesting to see those negotiations. 

50 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

Robb has been arguably a somewhat mediocre overlord for the Freys, so they don't owe him a great deal of personal loyalty. Siding with Robb is certainly a bigger gamble than siding with Tywin, as Tywin already has the advantage and is in a position to reward them. So I don't really blame Walder for picking Tywin, and it was probably the smart choice. The way he went about it, though, is unforgivable and he most likely underestimated the consequences this would have for the Freys and their station in Westeros.

Yeah I agree that it was definitely the smarter choice for the Freys to join the Lannisters at this point. However, the RW was completely stupid in my opinion. If Walder's options were to join the Lannisters by doing the RW or rejoining the Starks by wedding Roslyn to Edmure, the latter is the smarter choice in my opinion. If they are going to do the RW they need better compensation from the Lannisters; like what even was their compensation? Was it better than having one of their sons be the heir to Riverrun? Either way the smartest choice would have been to reject Tywin's proposal for doing the RW, but still joining their forces to his. This would have no impact on their House's reputation, and would effectively end the war. Robb's hopes rest entirely on regaining the Frey forces so he might have retreated and surrendered the moment he saw that the Freys joined Tywin's forces. 

[Hugorfonics]

59 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

I'm in the camp which believes the war was essentially unwinnable for Robb after the Blackwater. The Reach, Westerlands, and the vast majority of the Crownlands and Stormlands are now united in an alliance, with Dorne aligning itself with it too.

On paper that looks scary. But what's actually happening is Arianne is crowning Myrcella after Joff bit the dust. A kingsmoot is in progress, the Golden Company has broken it's contract and the Lannisters now having killed everyone in their path will turn on killing themselves.

Stark lost. But for like twelve minutes.

 

To the OP, agreed. Frey stupid. Or, just out played. 

It's incredulous that LF is the boss of the Riverlands, not Frey. And it's down right hilarious that they have to give Jaime all of their hostages. 

Frey won. But for like, nine minutes?

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

I doubt Robb could hold all the Riverlands in perpetuity. It’d be a miracle if he could hold Riverrun and it’s lands. I’d say he’d be able to hold onto Seagard and the Twins. Maybe Oldstones and it’s lands. If the United power of the Crown, Reach, and Westerlands all came down on the Riverlands it’d be hard to resist them. He’d probably be in a constant state of war. If Robb held out long enough for Lysa to die, perhaps Littlefinger and Robyn maybe sided with Robb. I think LF may do that if Cat is still alive.

[kissdbyfire]

Yes.

[Lesteraction]

Robb probably wouldn't be able to hold onto the Riverlands forever. If he could keep Riverrun and its territories, it would be a miracle. I believe he would be able to keep Seagard and the Twins. Potentially Oldstones and its holdings. It would be difficult for the Riverlands to overcome the combined might of the Crown, Reach, and Westerlands. He would probably be at war all the time. If Robb persisted long enough for Lysa to pass away, Littlefinger and Robyn might have taken Robb's side. If Cat is still alive, I believe that LF might accomplish that.

[SeanF]

I agree that he was stupid.

It seems that even Tywin was expecting Robb to be murdered in a surgical strike, rather than the wild bloodbath which ensued.  He wanted Catelyn as a high-value prisoner, rather than dead.

In my head-canon, I envisage Tywin intending to marry Catelyn, in order to create a Lannister branch that would rule the Riverlands.  From Catelyn’s POV, it would guarantee her daughter’s safety.

Nor do I doubt that Tywin would have condemned the Freys, if he needed to appease the North or the Riverlands.  Cesare Borgia used a similar tactic, by appointing brutal governors to terrorise cities he conquered, and later executing them for their crimes, to appease the local population.

Walder was so blinded by bitterness and pride, he didn’t realise he was being used by a much cleverer man, nor that he was condemning his family to death.  Minnows should not swim with sharks.

[Buried Treasure]

7 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

That's Edmures exact strategy and it defeated Tywin and Gregor

 

Defeated in a very limited context. Edmure successfully denied Tywin a crossing of the Fords, when Tywin's objective was to march West.

 

But Tywins army was still in good order - when Tywin changed objective to defense of Kings Landing, he was quickly able to march that army away and fight another battle.

 

If Tywin had changed his objective back to harassing the Riverlands (as it had been at the start of the war when he sent out raiders) then the Riverlands would have still been hard to protect. 

[Craving Peaches]

8 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Robb commanded two kingdoms. That's twice as many as any of his advisories 

One of them is wrecked and the other is thinly populated. Robb doesn't have as many men as the Tyrells, and he lacks the food supplies which will be very important. I like Robb and I'm not trying to insult him, I just don't think it's possible for him to win if he decides to hold on to the Riverlands as well.

7 hours ago, Bendric Dayne said:

sure Ramsay burns Winterfell, but you can't say someone else is holding Winterfell). 

True, but on the other hand, you usually only burn your own stuff to stop the enemy getting it in the first place, not when you've taken it back from them.

[Only 89 selfies today]

Walder trusted the Starks at the beginning of their friendship.  He honestly thought the Starks would pay up.  Then Robb broke his solemn promise and the Starks' honor was no longer worth cow dung.  The Starks come begging for help again and this time Walder demanded payment in advance.  He could and should have asked for more.  But there will be no value if their side of the war loses.  Robb's leadership looked shaky.  The idiot just killed Rickard Karstark.  So who will be next on the block?  

It is okay to love him or hate him, but Walder Frey did what he thought was best for his family's security.  He picked the winning side and followed Tywin's orders to trap the wolf and kill him.  Lame Lothar and Roose Bolton trapped the wolf and stopped the Stark's rebellion from going any further.  

[astarkchoice]

At the start of the war of 5 kings the freys are despised and looked down on ,openly mocked and seemingly  heading for an internal civil war when old walder dies. Walder  isnt blind he knows getting freys married and out of the densely packed twins is the salvation of his house yet no one wants to lower themselves to marry a frey. They are a rich and powerful house and on strength alone should rule the riverlands  yet are its social lepers.

The war  of 5 kings kicks off and while his liege lord sides with robb walder rightly points out he also swore to the king, and to the king before him whos family gave the tullys their right to command him in the 1st place!. Hes a cautious old man who wants respect but doesnt fully grasp honour, hes practical but also vengeful bitter side.

The rebel.army is outside their lands thus the time for any  neutrality is over, he cannot sit behind his walls allow this force across his land as enemies thus he must fight them or ally them

Robb offers him what he wants and the freys  go to war and by all accounts fight well , robb keeps winning battles and despite its silence theres no reason to believe the vale wont join in too not to mention it looks like the baratheons+ tyrells will smash the lannisters anyway! 

The of course robb demonstates spectacular lack of judgement and breaks the marriage alliance once again a frey is scorned  for a much lesser house too! Not only that the tide turns for robb with the irobornn taking the north coast, killing his brothers ,fall of winterfell  , the karststarks going home and finaly the blackwater and the reach lannsiter alliance. 

Now through tywins sister theres always been a back channel open   a way for freys to switch to the side thats clearly gonna win AND be deeply embedded into the new regime.

Edited February 18 by astarkchoice

[Craving Peaches]

21 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

lattrtsèfù88⁶8888

?

[Alester Florent]

12 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

At the start of the war of 5 kings the freys are despised and looked down on ,openly mocked and seemingly  heading for an internal civil war when old walder dies. Walder  isnt blind he knows getting freys married and out of the densely packed twins is the salvation of his house yet no one wants to lower themselves to marry a frey. They are a rich and powerful house and on strength alone should rule the riverlands  yet are its social lepers.

A lot of this is just Walder's paranoia and bitterness. Clearly plenty of people are prepared to marry Freys. Walder has accumulated multiple wives from different houses, and most of his sons are married. One of them is married to a Lannister.

What's actually going on is four things:

1) Walder thinks his house should be treated like a great house when it comes to marriage politics, and can't accept that the Freys aren't a great house.

2) He desperately wants a Tully marriage, but the Tullys have been a small family for a couple of generations without many spare kids, and thanks to point (1) they're sensibly prioritising higher-status marriages for the few they have.

3) Walder's family is way too big. He can't expect to get profitable marriages for all of them because there aren't enough eligible candidates lying around, and even if there were, you can't expect everyone in Westeros just to marry Freys exclusively. Junior Freys are not particularly desirable matches because they don't stand to inherit anything, and the family is so big that (a) there are loads of junior Freys and (b) the chances of any given junior Frey actually inheriting due to mishaps in the senior line are very small.

4) Walder himself is a complete twat, and apparently always has been (see the Dunk & Egg stories). He doesn't seem to make much effort to charm other nobles or even to ingratiate himself with the Tullys, the marriage he wants most. In fact he seems to make a point of pissing Hoster Tully off during the Rebellion. So why would anyone want to do him a favour and marry one of his kids anyway?

So what we have is in fact an almost entirely self-created problem that Walder uses as an excuse for perpetuating his unpleasantness in what becomes a vicious circle.