Edmure, Bolton and the Blackwater

[astarkchoice]

On 4/22/2023 at 4:24 PM, csuszka1948 said:

I tended to believe that Robb and Brynden were gaslighting Edmure, but I no longer think that true.

 

Why? Because I looked at an ASOIAF timeline which showed that even after the Battle of Oxcross, Robb and the Blackfish has spent MONTHS in the West, raiding mines and attacking castles.

This wouldn't make any sense unless their goal was to lure Tywin west.

Was this their original plan, or something they conceived after Oxcross and news of Renly's death? I don't know, but I suspect the latter (otherwise they would have told it to Edmure).

Yeah  true its very do-able 

Robb took 7 castles , stole a shitload of cattle and took some.gold mines.  Under the feudal sytem this isnt something tywin can safely ignore.

Given robbs special gifts with his wolf, the highly mobile nature of his campaign  and the time.taken to scout out the area he can move fast and knows the land.

To avoid another oxcross tywin will keep his cavalry and infantry together thus will move a lot slower chasing robb (who will probably stick to cavalry only force)  allowing a   ambush to be primed.

[Alester Florent]

On 4/21/2023 at 2:52 PM, John Suburbs said:

Tywin did not lose a single man from his army after his victory on the Blackwater, and nobody whined about their homes or castles. Everyone hailed the move as a stroke of genius that had all but won the war for them.

 

The Tyrell alliance and relief of King's Landing did win the war for them. But the only reason Tywin was in a position to do that is that he wasn't able to follow Robb into the west. For all the speculation about what Tywin "would have done": we know what he tried to do! Robb went into the Westerlands to start wrecking things and lure Tywin west, and Tywin took the bait. The only reason he didn't swallow it is that Edmure, not in on the plan, stops him at the river crossings. It's nothing to do with Tywin's brilliance or Robb's overcomplicated plan. Robb lays the trap and Tywin would have walked into it if Edmure hadn't stopped him.

If Tywin crosses there unopposed, then even if Stannis attacks King's Landing and he receives the news in time to turn back to relieve the capital, he has to at least fight his way back across the very same river crossings which we have no reason to expect would go any better than when he actually did try it.

Robb's plan would have worked, or at least it would have worked sufficiently to prevent Tywin linking up with the Tyrells and relieving King's Landing.

I'm in the camp that thinks Edmure is nevertheless unfairly blamed for this: he saw an opportunity to inflict a decisive defeat on Tywin, and does. It's just that the defeat in question turned out to be at odds with the overall operational plan which he hadn't been clued in on. And while Robb did tell Edmure to stay at Riverrun, in Edmure's shoes I would interpret that as (a) not going gallivanting around all over the place trying to chase down Tywin's army and (b) not leaving Riverrun under-garrisoned by taking the field, rather than a prohibition to engage Tywin on favourable terms if he marches right up to Edmure's front door. For all the poor guy knew, had he let Tywin past Robb would have berated him for allowing Tywin to follow him into the west when he had the opportunity to defeat him in the field.

[John Suburbs]

On 4/21/2023 at 4:47 PM, Buried Treasure said:

I profoundly disagree that Robb & Brynden were gaslighting, or at all misrepresenting their plans. Like everybody else, their plans did change when Stannis unexpectedly entered the war.

Plan 1 - When Robb first went west.

Setting the lure, if you like. At this point nobody expected Tywin to fall into the trap. Everyone knew that Tywin had to be ready to defend KL, giving Robb free rein to harry the West. 

Robb & Renly were not formal allies at this point, but if they had been working together I do not think they could have devised a better to plan to force Tywin into inertia whilst Robb's raids and Renly's blockade weakened the Lannister support bases.

Plan 2 - After Stannis engaged Renly

Stannis' action inadvertently aided Tywin - suddenly Renly no longer posed a threat to Kings Landing. So Tywin had a window to go west and deal with Robb's army before he had to return to the crownlands to resume the war against the Stannis-Renly victor.

This is what Robb & the Blackfish were talking about when they said they planned to lead Tywin a merry dance up the coast & then fight on their chosen ground. And it is highly unlikely they were lying because the alternative would be to engage him in a great pitched battle which would favour Tywin's larger army.

They wanted to trap Tywin on the western side of the mountains because their smaller force would have been effective at controlling the passes -- without  having to destroy Tywin's full army. Then the victor of Stannis-Renly would have been free to attack Kings Landing at leisure without relief from Tywin.

Even before Stannis entered the war, Rob and BF knew that the Tyrell army was marching on Kings Landing. It wouldn't matter to Tywin if it was Stannis or Renly's arse on the iron throne, he would lose it, along with all hope of ever getting it back.

After he died, Renly no longer posed a threat, but the Tyrell army was still there. So there was no window to go west. Tywin was looking at two hostile armies at King's Landing. There is no way anyone would think he would abandon the seat of all power just to prevent a little plundering or to protect a few vassal castles. That's insane.

The west is Tywin's home. He and his bannermen know those lands. They know where and when rivers can be forded, marshes can be crossed. And they would have the support of the population. If anyone was going to be led on a merry chase it was going to be Robb. But again, this would all be pointless if Tywin loses the Iron Throne. It was essentially mean the end of the war for him, and probably cost him his head too.

So no, they're not going to lure Tywin into the west so Stannis-Renly can take KL at their leisure. Tywin would be the first one to recognize what a foolish thing that would be for him to do.

[John Suburbs]

On 4/22/2023 at 4:51 PM, Alester Florent said:

The Tyrell alliance and relief of King's Landing did win the war for them. But the only reason Tywin was in a position to do that is that he wasn't able to follow Robb into the west. For all the speculation about what Tywin "would have done": we know what he tried to do! Robb went into the Westerlands to start wrecking things and lure Tywin west, and Tywin took the bait. The only reason he didn't swallow it is that Edmure, not in on the plan, stops him at the river crossings. It's nothing to do with Tywin's brilliance or Robb's overcomplicated plan. Robb lays the trap and Tywin would have walked into it if Edmure hadn't stopped him.

If Tywin crosses there unopposed, then even if Stannis attacks King's Landing and he receives the news in time to turn back to relieve the capital, he has to at least fight his way back across the very same river crossings which we have no reason to expect would go any better than when he actually did try it.

Robb's plan would have worked, or at least it would have worked sufficiently to prevent Tywin linking up with the Tyrells and relieving King's Landing.

I'm in the camp that thinks Edmure is nevertheless unfairly blamed for this: he saw an opportunity to inflict a decisive defeat on Tywin, and does. It's just that the defeat in question turned out to be at odds with the overall operational plan which he hadn't been clued in on. And while Robb did tell Edmure to stay at Riverrun, in Edmure's shoes I would interpret that as (a) not going gallivanting around all over the place trying to chase down Tywin's army and (b) not leaving Riverrun under-garrisoned by taking the field, rather than a prohibition to engage Tywin on favourable terms if he marches right up to Edmure's front door. For all the poor guy knew, had he let Tywin past Robb would have berated him for allowing Tywin to follow him into the west when he had the opportunity to defeat him in the field.

If Tywin wanted to cross the red fork he could have done so easily. He has 22,000 men while Edmure has barely 500 at any given crossing, plus a 3000-man light cavalry that he thinks will cover some 800 miles of riverfront. If you recall, this is the exact same thing Ed did at the beginning of the war -- spready his forces thin trying to protect every inch of ground -- and Tywin punched right through it then. It defies all logic to think that he has absolutely no idea what to do about it now.

So no, Robb's plan did not work. Tywin was never going to cross the fork and give up his family and the iron throne for the sake of some cows and gold. Some things should be patently obvious.

[Alester Florent]

39 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

If Tywin wanted to cross the red fork he could have done so easily. He has 22,000 men while Edmure has barely 500 at any given crossing, plus a 3000-man light cavalry that he thinks will cover some 800 miles of riverfront. If you recall, this is the exact same thing Ed did at the beginning of the war -- spready his forces thin trying to protect every inch of ground -- and Tywin punched right through it then. It defies all logic to think that he has absolutely no idea what to do about it now.

So why did Tywin attack the crossings at all if he didn't intend to cross? You don't try to force a river crossing unless you actually want to cross it: doing it for the sake of it is just a stupid way to lose lots of men.

The difference between the Battle at the Crossings and the early attack on the Riverlands is that Edmure now has control of a series of chokepoints which act as force multipliers and thereby allow him to defend a much wider front more effectively. In the initial invasion, Edmure's splitting of forces allowed his smaller divisions to be isolated and defeated in detail but with the battle now taking place at the crossings, Tywin's numerical advantage means relatively little because he can only bring so much of it to bear at any given point. In fact, Tywin's approach, of splitting his own forces to engage Edmure right across the front, is the right one in this situation, because it maximises his own numerical advantage and limits Edmure's ability to defend key crossings with reinforcements from unengaged fronts.

39 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So no, Robb's plan did not work. Tywin was never going to cross the fork and give up his family and the iron throne for the sake of some cows and gold. Some things should be patently obvious.

I think this has been adequately addressed. You derisively talk about "some cows and gold", but that is the homeland not only of Tywin but of his bannermen. The whole feudal deal is that you supply men to your suzerain and in exchange he protects you. Even if he doesn't care about his own lands (which he surely does!) he can't afford to let Robb ravage the Westerlands in general because his bannermen will start deserting.

The Iron Throne has symbolic value but little more. It provenly doesn't allow you to control the kingdom, because half the kingdom is at war against the person who holds it. All of Joffrey and Tywin's strength comes from the Westerlands and the Crownlands, of which the Crownlands are by far the less important part. Half the Crownlands are with Stannis anyway. Casterly Rock is the powerbase for Tywin and the Lannisters, not King's Landing. King's Landing is in any event febrile and unreliable: it may become untenable on its own terms (see: the bread riots) in which case the royal family need somewhere secure to retreat to.

Tywin can't afford to lose either, which is why attacking the Westerlands is a good move: it forces him to either divide his forces, or risk leaving one of his key locations undefended. Tywin chooses to defend the Westerlands and hope King's Landing can hold out, which is the same decision we would expect any lord to make in that situation. Renly does it when Stannis attacks Storm's End. Robb does it after Balon seizes Winterfell. The Tyrells do it when Euron attacks the Reach. The only counterexample I can think of was Robert in his rebellion, who gambled that Storm's End could hold out while he dealt the Targaryens a knockout blow... but Tywin doesn't have that option because in order to knock out Robb he needs to eliminate Robb personally, and Robb is in the Westerlands.

[frenin]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

but the Tyrell army was still there.

Why would the Tyrell army march on King's Landing without Renly, Stannis or Joffrey to back?

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

And they would have the support of the population. If anyone was going to be led on a merry chase it was going to be Robb.

On that much i do agree, Robb's plan sounds highly optimistic.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

There is no way anyone would think he would abandon the seat of all power just to prevent a little plundering or to protect a few vassal castles. That's insane.

Without the Tyrell's army to offer stability, Tywin's seat of power is Casterly Rock, not King's Landing.

 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

So no, they're not going to lure Tywin into the west so Stannis-Renly can take KL at their leisure. Tywin would be the first one to recognize what a foolish thing that would be for him to do.

Yes, they were.

About the latter, Tywin can be fooled. Robb fooled him enough times to know he's not as infallible as you want him to be.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

If Tywin wanted to cross the red fork he could have done so easily.

He tried to and got a very ugly nose bleed.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

He has 22,000 men while Edmure has barely 500 at any given crossing, plus a 3000-man light cavalry that he thinks will cover some 800 miles of riverfront. . If you recall, this is the exact same thing Ed did at the beginning of the war -- spready his forces thin trying to protect every inch of ground -- and Tywin punched right through it then. It defies all logic to think that he has absolutely no idea what to do about it now.

Edmure holds every chokepoint position, his men are in a force multplier zone, Tywin's numbers are not overwhelming enough to matter, hence the fords' outcome.

Edmure also, believe it or not, learnt from his mistakes.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Tywin was never going to cross the fork and give up his family and the iron throne for the sake of some cows and gold.

He was tho.

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

So why did Tywin attack the crossings at all if he didn't intend to cross? You don't try to force a river crossing unless you actually want to cross it: doing it for the sake of it is just a stupid way to lose lots of men.

Those were a feint to make Stannis think he was hundreds of miles away bogged down in the riverlands when in reality he was racing down the Blackwater to catch Stan with his back to the walls and the river. Stannis would never have assaauted King's Landing if he knew Tywin was close by or if he didn't know where he was at all. Too risky.

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The difference between the Battle at the Crossings and the early attack on the Riverlands is that Edmure now has control of a series of chokepoints which act as force multipliers and thereby allow him to defend a much wider front more effectively. In the initial invasion, Edmure's splitting of forces allowed his smaller divisions to be isolated and defeated in detail but with the battle now taking place at the crossings, Tywin's numerical advantage means relatively little because he can only bring so much of it to bear at any given point. In fact, Tywin's approach, of splitting his own forces to engage Edmure right across the front, is the right one in this situation, because it maximises his own numerical advantage and limits Edmure's ability to defend key crossings with reinforcements from unengaged fronts.

No, Edmure does not have control of the chokepoints. 500 vs 22,000 is not control, and a slight rise on the opposite bank is not a force multiplier, it's maybe a force adder by a few men at best. Tywin could have smashed right through any one of them at any time. Tywin can send 500 fully armored knights across a bridge within minutes, and if he loses one of them to arrow-fall it would be remarkable. Then those knights charge right through the defenders and that's the end of it -- over in about 20 minutes. And like you said, he can do this at a dozen crossing, effectively neutralizing Ed's cavalry.

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I think this has been adequately addressed. You derisively talk about "some cows and gold", but that is the homeland not only of Tywin but of his bannermen. The whole feudal deal is that you supply men to your suzerain and in exchange he protects you. Even if he doesn't care about his own lands (which he surely does!) he can't afford to let Robb ravage the Westerlands in general because his bannermen will start deserting.

This idea of Tywin having to protect his homeland or else is 100 percent debunked in the book. Tywin did go to King's Landing instead of home and no one, not one person, thinks he is a great fool for doing this. And not one of his bannermen abandoned him or even express any displeasure at this decision. So this notion is patently, demonstrably false. Everyone thinks the rescue of King's Landing was a strike of brilliance that all but won the war for the Lannisters, because without the iron throne, and no way to get it back, they would be nothing.

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The Iron Throne has symbolic value but little more. It provenly doesn't allow you to control the kingdom, because half the kingdom is at war against the person who holds it. All of Joffrey and Tywin's strength comes from the Westerlands and the Crownlands, of which the Crownlands are by far the less important part. Half the Crownlands are with Stannis anyway. Casterly Rock is the powerbase for Tywin and the Lannisters, not King's Landing. King's Landing is in any event febrile and unreliable: it may become untenable on its own terms (see: the bread riots) in which case the royal family need somewhere secure to retreat to.

It is not symbolic. It is the source of unchecked power over the entire realm. It is the single most powerful institution on the continent. The Targaryen's power was not symbolic, neither was Robert's. Why do you think everyone is falling all over themselves to seize and control the Iron Throne if it is just symbolic? Why is it called the Game of Thrones and not the game of imaginary, symbolic power that means nothing? Again, the text clearly and unambiguously disproves these points.

Neither Casterly Rock nor Lannisport are even remotely threatened by Robb, and it would be the end of him and his army if he tried to take them. Robb can do nothing in the west but take a few castles temporarily and make off with a little plunder. This is chicken feed compared to the loss of the Iron Throne and the two members of Tywin's family who have even a shred of a claim to it. If he loses them, he loses all, plain and simple.

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Tywin can't afford to lose either, which is why attacking the Westerlands is a good move: it forces him to either divide his forces, or risk leaving one of his key locations undefended. Tywin chooses to defend the Westerlands and hope King's Landing can hold out, which is the same decision we would expect any lord to make in that situation. Renly does it when Stannis attacks Storm's End. Robb does it after Balon seizes Winterfell. The Tyrells do it when Euron attacks the Reach. The only counterexample I can think of was Robert in his rebellion, who gambled that Storm's End could hold out while he dealt the Targaryens a knockout blow... but Tywin doesn't have that option because in order to knock out Robb he needs to eliminate Robb personally, and Robb is in the Westerlands.

Tywin did not divide his forces. He went all in on King's Landing, leaving his "home" for later. Tywin did not choose to defend the westerlands and hope KL can hold out, and again, no one thought him a great fool for this. His victory was a stroke of genius in the eyes of literally everyone, even Robb.

Renly saw easy pickings at Storm's End and a chance to remove his chief claimant to the throne, not Storm's End. Robb was returning to Winterfell because that is where his throne is, the font of his power. The Tyrells defend their lands because they have no direct claim to the throne, yet. It's all about the throne. It's the Game of Thrones, not the game of cows and chickens.

So all I can say is that you are analyzing this all wrong. But you're not alone in that, especially when the PoV doesn't understand what's really happening, which is most of the time. The truth will come out, eventually, maybe, hopefully . . .   In the meantime, we use the lesson of the Sealord's cat: words are wind. Just because someone, or everyone, says something is true doesn't make it so. Look with your eyes, hear with your ears and the truth you will know. This story about luring Tywin into the west is a blatant, obvious lie, and only neophytes like Cat and Edmure cannot see it.

[frenin]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Those were a feint to make Stannis think he was hundreds of miles away bogged down in the riverlands when in reality he was racing down the Blackwater to catch Stan with his back to the walls and the river. Stannis would never have assaauted King's Landing if he knew Tywin was close by or if he didn't know where he was at all. Too risky.

We know for a fact he believed Stannis would be tied down when he marched.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

No, Edmure does not have control of the chokepoints. 500 vs 22,000 is not control, and a slight rise on the opposite bank is not a force multiplier,

I mean, it literally is and we see it on display.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

This idea of Tywin having to protect his homeland or else is 100 percent debunked in the book. Tywin did go to King's Landing instead of home and no one, not one person, thinks he is a great fool for doing this.

After the Tyrell alliance was made.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

and not one of his bannermen abandoned him or even express any displeasure at this decision.

After the Tyrell alliance was made.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

It is not symbolic. It is the source of unchecked power over the entire realm. It is the single most powerful institution on the continent. The Targaryen's power was not symbolic,

It very much was during Robert's rebellion, the Dance of the Dragons and the First Blackfyre rebellions, let alone the War of the 5 Kings.

What control does the Iron Throne hold over the Vale as of now? Even now, after Littlefinger has been named regent they are still not paying taxes and there is not a single thing the Iron Throne can do.

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Why do you think everyone is falling all over themselves to seize and control the Iron Throne if it is just symbolic? Why is it called the Game of Thrones and not the game of imaginary, symbolic power that means nothing? Again, the text clearly and unambiguously disproves these points.

Because it's a start.

 

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 4/20/2023 at 12:37 PM, astarkchoice said:

Hes not expected to do it no..but it almost bloody works! If tywins scouts had been just a little more lax etc hed have easily won(the horns.are tywins forces waking up and forming)  you cant dismiss the fact he was very close to endning the war

He wasn't close at all. He didn't even need to engage Tywin, merely had to draw him up the GF.

On 4/20/2023 at 12:37 PM, astarkchoice said:

As for  forming up only a fool charges  a force in marching  formation  into a battle ...thats not orderly its just a recipe for a giant melee againts a camp thats possibly got walls errected etc. No a pitched battle involves massive numbers and thus potentialy  massive losses....generaly commanders avoided them unless absolutely sure as they could alter whole wars...they sure as hell avoided sending men broken up into marching columns to just charge at a largely  unscouted camp!!

We know Tywin's camp stretches out over leagues.

Lord Tywin's camp spread over leagues. Chella's estimate of twenty thousand men could not be far wrong.

Roose's army was in marching battle a mile away from the encampment, with more than enough time to re-form and engage. They didn't need to but it's pissing away the advantage of being armed and armored when the enemy is asleep and still getting dressed.

We also know that Roose's men have the high ground but the ground flattens out near the river and is beneficial to cavalry:

suddenly the enemy was there before them, boiling over the tops of the hills, advancing with measured tread behind a wall of shields and pikes.

A few trees spotted the hillsides, but most of the land had been cleared and planted.

Any commander worth their command would not be charging infantry downhill in a scenario like this. Even if Roose screwed up the forming the army, charging them downhill into places where they can be pinned (against river, against hill) and charged by heavy cavalry is a bad idea. Heavy infantry is best defensively against cavalry with natural barriers in play (eg hills). 

On 4/20/2023 at 12:37 PM, astarkchoice said:

We are specifily told rooses retreat is orderly and tidy, nowhere near the massacre tywin planned due to rooses diciplined fall back.

We are not told it's orderly and tidy afaik. This is what we are told: 

Roose Bolton had re-formed the battered remnants of their other host at the mouth of the causeway.

So in a set of scenarios where Roose could lose no men by luring tywin up the KR or lose a few hundred to a thousand by defending the high ground, he chooses the approach most likely to cause massive casualties. 

And we're not even getting to the actually debatable stuff like who fired the arrows at the northern infantry, why are his men in the rearguard, and why Ramsay has the backing of the entire dreadfort garrison and its commanders.

[Alester Florent]

13 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

We know Tywin's camp stretches out over leagues.

Lord Tywin's camp spread over leagues. Chella's estimate of twenty thousand men could not be far wrong.. 

 

I think when he wrote AGoT GRRM didn't know how far a league actually was. A lot of the geography looks really shiny if you take the "leagues" as accurate. I think in fact, based on contextual clues, he was out by about one decimal place and thought it was about a third of a mile, not three miles.

For instance, one of Caesar's camps in Gaul-a semipermanent encampment, not a marching camp, was about half a mile square for eight legions: around 40,000 fighting men, double the reputed size of Tywin's army. For Tywin's army to spread out for "leagues" while at camp would be a shocking failure of operational command.

This seems to get corrected in the later books. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

4 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

I think when he wrote AGoT GRRM didn't know how far a league actually was. A lot of the geography looks really shiny if you take the "leagues" as accurate. I think in fact, based on contextual clues, he was out by about one decimal place and thought it was about a third of a mile, not three miles.

This seems to get corrected in the later books. 

He was bad at many things but he knew how long a league was. The wall has been 100 leagues since aGoT

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Size_of_Westeros/

[astarkchoice]

12 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

-He wasn't close at all. He didn't even need to engage Tywin, merely had to draw him up the GF.

-We know Tywin's camp stretches out over leagues.

Lord Tywin's camp spread over leagues. Chella's estimate of twenty thousand men could not be far wrong.

-Roose's army was in marching battle a mile away from the encampment, with more than enough time to re-form and engage. They didn't need to but it's pissing away the advantage of being armed and armored when the enemy is asleep and still getting dressed.

We also know that Roose's men have the high ground but the ground flattens out near the river and is beneficial to cavalry:

suddenly the enemy was there before them, boiling over the tops of the hills, advancing with measured tread behind a wall of shields and pikes.

A few trees spotted the hillsides, but most of the land had been cleared and planted.

Any commander worth their command would not be charging infantry downhill in a scenario like this. Even if Roose screwed up the forming the army, charging them downhill into places where they can be pinned (against river, against hill) and charged by heavy cavalry is a bad idea. Heavy infantry is best defensively against cavalry with natural barriers in play (eg hills). 

We are not told it's orderly and tidy afaik. This is what we are told: 

Roose Bolton had re-formed the battered remnants of their other host at the mouth of the causeway.

So in a set of scenarios where Roose could lose no men by luring tywin up the KR or lose a few hundred to a thousand by defending the high ground, he chooses the approach most likely to cause massive casualties. 

And we're not even getting to the actually debatable stuff like who fired the arrows at the northern infantry, why are his men in the rearguard, and why Ramsay has the backing of the entire dreadfort garrison and its commanders.

-one one hand you say he could have just  zerg rushed it and won the battle but on the other  he wasnt close.....its one or the other man

-theres a lot  wrong with that. The main part being they  have lost the element of suprise at the very last moment , the scouts have found them a mile or so away  and have brought word to the camp !!  Theyl be armed and armoured in minutes and thats minus the small force  thatl be already armed defending the camp as standard.   Thats a camp which will be possibly walled...... trying to zerg rush them while still in  thin marching   columns (possibly spread out for miles themselves ). now is suicide  esp once any of the  enemy heavy cavalry groups. is ready! The enemy have spotted the suprise attempt  in time ....the possibility of catching them sleeping is gone! At most it takes 10 mins for a knight(the heaviest armoured of tywins guys)  to get armoured and thats reallly pushing it.....the northerners  arent covering a mile in ten mins!

No overall the suprise almost works but the scouts caught them , the smart thing to do is form up and rest and try and win the pitched battle you pressured or withdraw

- again hills of unknown height..could be gentle rolling ones.  The rivers are behind them(north)  if i recall as tywin leads his force BEHIND the stark lines and is   then near the river.

The tactics are sound, simple and easily achievable, they outnumber the westerland forces in infantry  and charge downhill to help add momentum to that advantage and prevent being pinned against the river....the clear idea being to break the smaller enemy infantry  blocks while the badly outnumbered northern  cavalry holds on.....once the centre breaks the westerlands cavalry would be forced to flee! Bear in mind ser gregor inhumanly breaking a spearwall didnt help

If they followed your idea and waited  defensively on the hills  theyd be engaged by tywins infantry , the heavy cavalry mismatch would then  be decided and theyd swing around to hammer the infantry.

 

Erm yeah roose reforms them so the earlier idea  of tywins  that kevan  could swing the pikemen round into a disordered mess is foiled, tywin himself.talked about how cautious the force was led. He leads them.away in good order.

Overall

Strategicly he chose to take a chance and engage , almost catches his enemy sleeping (could have wont he whole fucking war right there) and retreats in good order when he loses ...its  a war as.far as hes aware thay  hes in a coalition that has 2-3 times lannister numbers so they can afford to bleed more than tywin can anyway 

 

As for the rest

The arrows seem.to be a cold stategic dec, the inhuman ser gregor has broken a shieldwall(somehow) and the lightly armoured clansmen have poured into the gap so roose doesnt care about the 'blue on blue' fire

Generaly speaking about keeping bolton forces in reserve hes either wanting his own forces to be preseved but also he wants the reserve to be the forces he knows best should he chose to go with them to commit them somewhere.....or shit both reasons combined works too

 

Theres.0 reason ramsay wouldnt have the backing of the dreadfort or its commanders hes rooses son. 

[astarkchoice]

On 4/24/2023 at 4:16 PM, John Suburbs said:

If Tywin wanted to cross the red fork he could have done so easily. He has 22,000 men while Edmure has barely 500 at any given crossing, plus a 3000-man light cavalry that he thinks will cover some 800 miles of riverfront. If you recall, this is the exact same thing Ed did at the beginning of the war -- spready his forces thin trying to protect every inch of ground -- and Tywin punched right through it then. It defies all logic to think that he has absolutely no idea what to do about it now.

So no, Robb's plan did not work. Tywin was never going to cross the fork and give up his family and the iron throne for the sake of some cows and gold. Some things should be patently obvious.

Doesnt really work like that..if you try and march 22k men  close together  itl be spotted for miles  and edmure will concentrate his forces to try and match and vice versa if he disperses them and probes multiple fronts.

Edmure cleary learned his lesson from the early drubbings by jamie and battle of the fords he ensures enough men are always there to prevent a crossing.

[James Arryn]

On 4/24/2023 at 11:16 AM, John Suburbs said:

If Tywin wanted to cross the red fork he could have done so easily. He has 22,000 men while Edmure has barely 500 at any given crossing, plus a 3000-man light cavalry that he thinks will cover some 800 miles of riverfront. If you recall, this is the exact same thing Ed did at the beginning of the war -- spready his forces thin trying to protect every inch of ground -- and Tywin punched right through it then. It defies all logic to think that he has absolutely no idea what to do about it now.

So no, Robb's plan did not work. Tywin was never going to cross the fork and give up his family and the iron throne for the sake of some cows and gold. Some things should be patently obvious.

So, to get this straight, Tywin tried repeated and we are told ‘fierce’ attacks to cross, taking what is described as ‘heavy casualties’ to somehow fool Stannis, who is apparently in mental connection with either Edmure’s forces or…Tywin?…into thinking he was heading west? Why not just a raven? Anyways, if he’s daft enough to take those kinds of losses for a feint-by-third/fourth party proxy, we need not worry about him ad a commander anymore, he’s clearly lost his mind.

[Universal Sword Donor]

16 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-one one hand you say he could have just  zerg rushed it and won the battle but on the other  he wasnt close.....its one or the other man

The situations are not mutually exclusive. And I never said he could  zerg rush and win. I said he'd have time to form up and march in battle formation before Tywin was ready. That doesn't mean he's close to winning by assaulting a fortified position that was unprepared.

16 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-theres a lot  wrong with that. The main part being they  have lost the element of suprise at the very last moment , the scouts have found them a mile or so away  and have brought word to the camp !!  Theyl be armed and armoured in minutes and thats minus the small force  thatl be already armed defending the camp as standard.   Thats a camp which will be possibly walled...... trying to zerg rush them while still in  thin marching   columns (possibly spread out for miles themselves ). now is suicide  esp once any of the  enemy heavy cavalry groups. is ready! The enemy have spotted the suprise attempt  in time ....the possibility of catching them sleeping is gone! At most it takes 10 mins for a knight(the heaviest armoured of tywins guys)  to get armoured and thats reallly pushing it.....the northerners  arent covering a mile in ten mins!

You can keep say zerg rushing but it doesn't do much for listening to you. Tywin's camp is leagues across, meaning the vast majority of the his men are going to take longer to get to the parts being attacked than the northern infantry. Nothing I said would have forced Roose to attack Tywin/

16 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

No overall the suprise almost works but the scouts caught them , the smart thing to do is form up and rest and try and win the pitched battle you pressured or withdraw

Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. No disagreement there

16 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

- again hills of unknown height..could be gentle rolling ones.  The rivers are behind them(north)  if i recall as tywin leads his force BEHIND the stark lines and is   then near the river.

Doesn't matter how high the hills are. It's a more defensible position.

16 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

The tactics are sound, simple and easily achievable, they outnumber the westerland forces in infantry  and charge downhill to help add momentum to that advantage and prevent being pinned against the river....the clear idea being to break the smaller enemy infantry  blocks while the badly outnumbered northern  cavalry holds on.....once the centre breaks the westerlands cavalry would be forced to flee! Bear in mind ser gregor inhumanly breaking a spearwall didnt help

The tactics are 100% not sounds. That's why they lost half the army. Armies are always better defending absent a scenario where they could get encircled

Ser Kevan had brought up his center in support of the van; his huge mass of pikemen had pushed
the northerners back against the hills. They were struggling on the slopes, pikes thrusting against
another wall of shields, these oval and reinforced with iron studs. [...]

and Lord Tywin’s reserve camesweeping up along the river. Tyrion watched his father fly past, the crimson-and-gold banner of Lannister rippling over his head as he thundered across the field. Five hundred knights surrounded him, sunlight flashing off the points of their lances. The remnants of the Stark lines shattered like glass beneath the hammer of their charge.

Oh wait that's exactly what happened because they didn't stay in place at the top of the hill .... because they advanced when they shouldn't have, lost the high ground and got pinned against the hill

16 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

If they followed your idea and waited  defensively on the hills  theyd be engaged by tywins infantry , the heavy cavalry mismatch would then  be decided and theyd swing around to hammer the infantry.

You've been playing too much Total War. Infantry formations are, uh, mobile as we seen during the battle. Heavy cavalry charging heavy infantry is going to go badly for the cavalry. Any number of medieval battles can show you that. 

16 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Erm yeah roose reforms them so the earlier idea  of tywins  that kevan  could swing the pikemen round into a disordered mess is foiled, tywin himself.talked about how cautious the force was led. He leads them.away in good order.

Cautious =/= good order. They routed and he reformed them, losing a far larger share of his force than most medieval armies who lose to a larger force.

The remnants of the Stark lines shattered like glass beneath the hammer of their charge.

Shattered lines do not retreat in good order as they are shattered.

16 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Overall

Strategicly he chose to take a chance and engage , almost catches his enemy sleeping (could have wont he whole fucking war right there) and retreats in good order when he loses ...its  a war as.far as hes aware thay  hes in a coalition that has 2-3 times lannister numbers so they can afford to bleed more than tywin can anyway 

He acted opposite of the reason he was chosen and achieved his goal in the absolute worst way possible.

 

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, James Arryn said:

So, to get this straight, Tywin tried repeated and we are told ‘fierce’ attacks to cross, taking what is described as ‘heavy casualties’ to somehow fool Stannis, who is apparently in mental connection with either Edmure’s forces or…Tywin?…into thinking he was heading west? Why not just a raven? Anyways, if he’s daft enough to take those kinds of losses for a feint-by-third/fourth party proxy, we need not worry about him ad a commander anymore, he’s clearly lost his mind.

The initial attacks were hardly fierce. A few hundred men at best, with maybe a dozen casualties. And look at how the river lords crowed about their "great victories" and Hoster would be dancing a jig and Tywin won't come around here any time soon . . . The only "fierce fighting" was at the Stone Mill, and this was Edmure's description. It could have been as few as a thousand men. Remember the lesson of the Sealord's cat: words are wind. Look with your eyes, hear with your ears and the truth you will know.

Yes, it was meant to make Stannis think Tywin was way to the north bogged down in the Riverlands, nowhere near King's Landing. What better way to do that than to fake a number of battles, culminating in a story of how his greatest, most renown knight was beaten and humiliated. This is exactly what Robb did to take Riverrun, what Theon did to take Winterfell, how Dany took Meereen . . .  It's about the most basic military tactic in the book.

No mental connections needed. Word of battles moves quickly.

What losses? Like I said, this could be fewer than a thousand men, with losses in the hundreds maybe. Tywin has 22,000. Tis but a flesh wound.

Why not just a raven what? The ravens flew after the battle, from the riverlords crowing about their great victories against the mighty Tywin Lannister and his giant berserker vassal.

The only reason anyone would think Tywin has lost his mind is if he traded his son, daughter, both grandsons and any and all claim to the Iron Throne just to prevent a little plundering. That would be insane, which is proven by the text because Tywin does go the King's Landing and everybody, literally everybody, hails it as a stroke of genius that all but won him the war.

[Alester Florent]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The initial attacks were hardly fierce. A few hundred men at best, with maybe a dozen casualties. And look at how the river lords crowed about their "great victories" and Hoster would be dancing a jig and Tywin won't come around here any time soon . . . The only "fierce fighting" was at the Stone Mill, and this was Edmure's description. It could have been as few as a thousand men. Remember the lesson of the Sealord's cat: words are wind. Look with your eyes, hear with your ears and the truth you will know.

Yes, it was meant to make Stannis think Tywin was way to the north bogged down in the Riverlands, nowhere near King's Landing. What better way to do that than to fake a number of battles, culminating in a story of how his greatest, most renown knight was beaten and humiliated. This is exactly what Robb did to take Riverrun, what Theon did to take Winterfell, how Dany took Meereen . . .  It's about the most basic military tactic in the book.

No mental connections needed. Word of battles moves quickly.

What losses? Like I said, this could be fewer than a thousand men, with losses in the hundreds maybe. Tywin has 22,000. Tis but a flesh wound.

Why not just a raven what? The ravens flew after the battle, from the riverlords crowing about their great victories against the mighty Tywin Lannister and his giant berserker vassal.

The only reason anyone would think Tywin has lost his mind is if he traded his son, daughter, both grandsons and any and all claim to the Iron Throne just to prevent a little plundering. That would be insane, which is proven by the text because Tywin does go the King's Landing and everybody, literally everybody, hails it as a stroke of genius that all but won him the war.

On the assumption that Stannis somehow knew Tywin's movements telephathically, this would still be an unnecessarily high-risk plan. By your own assertion, King's Landing is the centre of Tywin's power and the one place he cannot afford to lose. So he lures Stannis into attacking it and almost loses it.  He is only able to rescue the capital through the alliance with the Tyrells which he hasn't made at the time he attacks the fords. If Stannis takes the "bait" and attacks King's Landing and Tywin hasn't got his Tyrell alliance in order, he loses King's Landing.

Whether Tywin alone could defeat Stannis at King's Landing is an open question but it's far from a sure thing. A decisive moment of course is "Renly's ride" which guts Stormlander morale (comprising the bulk of Stannis's army) and isn't available to Tywin without the Tyrell alliance. Moreover, if Stannis sees Tywin coming he has the opportunity to either form up and meet them on the open field or retreat back to Dragonstone: the reason Tywin's attack has the element of surprise (and is therefore so devastating) is that Stannis's scouts are eliminated by Tyrion.

All in all, the idea that Tywin's attack on the fords was a feint for Stannis's benefit and that this was some masterstroke on Tywin's part relies way too heavily for my liking on Tywin's successful prediction of three factors unknown to him at the time: firstly the Tyrell alliance, a possibility but not a certainty, secondly Tyrion's successful defence of King's Landing long enough for Tywin to relieve it (no matter Tywin's faith in Tyrion's abilities, this is a massive gamble considering the stakes and Tyrion's command experience), and thirdly the elimination of Stannis's scouts, which he has no real way of anticipating.

None of this fits with Tywin's character as we know it. He's not a reckless gambler; he's generally a careful and cautious man. Even if we think the above plan is meritorious (again, I am doubtful) it doesn't look at all like the kind of thing Tywin would do. Robb or Robert or even Jaime, maybe. Far more likely is that what happened is exactly what it looks like: Tywin attempted to head west to defend his lands, as any lord would do, failed to force a crossing easily, and then adjusted his plansy.

[astarkchoice]

4 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

-The situations are not mutually exclusive. And I never said he could  zerg rush and win. I said he'd have time to form up and march in battle formation before Tywin was ready. That doesn't mean he's close to winning by assaulting a fortified position that was unprepared.

-You can keep say zerg rushing but it doesn't do much for listening to you. Tywin's camp is leagues across, meaning the vast majority of the his men are going to take longer to get to the parts being attacked than the northern infantry. Nothing I said would have forced Roose to attack Tywin/

-Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. No disagreement there

-Doesn't matter how high the hills are. It's a more defensible position.

-The tactics are 100% not sounds. That's why they lost half the army. Armies are always better defending absent a scenario where they could get encircled

Ser Kevan had brought up his center in support of the van; his huge mass of pikemen had pushed
the northerners back against the hills. They were struggling on the slopes, pikes thrusting against
another wall of shields, these oval and reinforced with iron studs. [...]

and Lord Tywin’s reserve camesweeping up along the river. Tyrion watched his father fly past, the crimson-and-gold banner of Lannister rippling over his head as he thundered across the field. Five hundred knights surrounded him, sunlight flashing off the points of their lances. The remnants of the Stark lines shattered like glass beneath the hammer of their charge.

Oh wait that's exactly what happened because they didn't stay in place at the top of the hill .... because they advanced when they shouldn't have, lost the high ground and got pinned against the hill

-You've been playing too much Total War. Infantry formations are, uh, mobile as we seen during the battle. Heavy cavalry charging heavy infantry is going to go badly for the cavalry. Any number of medieval battles can show you that. 

-Cautious =/= good order. They routed and he reformed them, losing a far larger share of his force than most medieval armies who lose to a larger force.

The remnants of the Stark lines shattered like glass beneath the hammer of their charge.

Shattered lines do not retreat in good order as they are shattered.

-He acted opposite of the reason he was chosen and achieved his goal in the absolute worst way possible.

-but he didnt have time to form up before tywin was ready, the  lannsiter scouts had caught his sneaky lil march. The lannsiter forces were getting armed and ready with the northern van discovered a mile away, its close but no cigar, the  entire camp will be up armed + ready before the northern host can arrive thus marching onwards in fast marching columns makes 0 sense. The chance for a sneak attack has died out so as was common in ancient battles the commander must form up for battle  or retreat  and roose clearly still liked his chances (and/or didnt give a shit about wasting troops). 

-dude if you have conceded the argument and said  roose could have suprised tywin thus winning the whole fucking war  already then theres not much more to say.

-but it does hint this wasnt a mistake more a calculated gamble, one that almost won the war in a stroke

-armies 'arent always better defending' forces prefer to attack esp out in open battle and esp downhill of they can! This isnt star wars and the men arent jedi..the 'high ground' isnt magic and if they wait for tywins cavalry to rout their own vastly outnumbered cavalry they are dead in this period where the heavy cav dominate the battlefield. 

- its very simple the one place they have advantage is infantry numbers but that wont count for much once their meagre cavalry is driven off. The high ground is diffficult to march up agaisnt in combat , harder still of the enemy is comming down it , even harder again if they have numbers thus more weight and muscle is pushing downhill. If the larger infantry force can rout the smaller one  with this momentum then tywins vastly superior cavalry counts for nowt ..it  can only win the cavalry battle then screen his mens retreat from a loss!!!

We know this didnt happen as the lannsiter infanty hold up well, also dont forget  somehow on kevans very weakest side ser gegor smashes  pike and shield walls single.handedly!!!!!  and tyrions savages flood the gap heedless of the heavy casulties they are taking! Ser kevan can thus actual push the larger northern block back and then tywin comits his cavary reserve to shatter and rout the enemy...roose however reforms them to prevent an utter slaughter and falls back in good order, no doubt made possible by his own flayed men banner forces and archers forming up but not actualy been mentioned in the thick of the battle.

-the casulties are high yes but so are all the asoiaf battles..thats just grmm and numbers again

 

-his plan.was to win the war in one stroke and he was a couple of dilligent scouts (or poorly aimed archer shots at said scouts) from getting that . Then his 2nd goal was to bleed the enemy without hurting his own personal forces (strategicly smart given the expected imbalance in force with vale,riverlands and north vs westerlands) which he achieved, if not for the plot armour of ser gergor saving tywins left hed have done much better too.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

On the assumption that Stannis somehow knew Tywin's movements telephathically, this would still be an unnecessarily high-risk plan. By your own assertion, King's Landing is the centre of Tywin's power and the one place he cannot afford to lose. So he lures Stannis into attacking it and almost loses it.  He is only able to rescue the capital through the alliance with the Tyrells which he hasn't made at the time he attacks the fords. If Stannis takes the "bait" and attacks King's Landing and Tywin hasn't got his Tyrell alliance in order, he loses King's Landing.

Where do you get all this telepathic stuff? New travels. New of battles travels fast. It's how Tywin knew when the northern army left the Twins. How he knew that the siege at Riverrun was smashed. It's how everyone knew Renly died, and Storm's End was taken. What makes you think that all of these experienced commanders go off into the field and are completely cut off from what's happening in the war?

No, Tywin didn't almost lose King's Landing. Do you think that this alliance was formed and Tywin broke off from the riverlands, then sailed down the rush and just happened to hit Stannis just as the mud gate was about to crack? If so, there's a lovely manse in old Valyria I would dearly love to sell you. The attack on Stannis was timed perfectly so that as much of his army was diminished and losses on the Lann/Tyrell side were mnimized. And even then, Stannis had not even gotten into the city. He still had the Red Keep and then Maegor's to get through. So Stannis may have almost made his way into the city, but he was far from taking the Iron Throne.

Tywin had plenty of men to deal with Stannis all by himself. 22K of his own plus another 8K or so in the city. Stannis started out with around 20k, the vast number of which was destroyed by wildfire. The remainder was on one side of the river attacking the city while the rest was on the other. Just like Robb did at Riverrun, Tywin picked off the smaller force first and then fell on the rest as they fled. The Tyrell force was helpful but not vital.

If Tywin went west and Stannis attacked the city it would have fallen and Tywin would have lost the iron throne, and there was nothing he could have done to prevent it.

Quote

Whether Tywin alone could defeat Stannis at King's Landing is an open question but it's far from a sure thing. A decisive moment of course is "Renly's ride" which guts Stormlander morale (comprising the bulk of Stannis's army) and isn't available to Tywin without the Tyrell alliance. Moreover, if Stannis sees Tywin coming he has the opportunity to either form up and meet them on the open field or retreat back to Dragonstone: the reason Tywin's attack has the element of surprise (and is therefore so devastating) is that Stannis's scouts are eliminated by Tyrion.

Nothing in war is a sure thing. But as I've shown, Tywin had the numerical advantage, and Stannis has suffered major casualties and has split his forces in two. No, Renly's ride was not a decisive moment. It was a neat trick that rattled a handful of attackers, but they didn't run and hide when they saw him, they kept on fighting. The crushing blow was the rout on the far side of the river, followed by the attack outside the city. Once Stannis' men saw that they threw down their arms and ran -- and in every battle, once that happens, its over.

Stannis did not see Tywin coming. That's the whole point. He thinks Tywin is getting pummeled 300 leagues to the north, in the riverlands, with no way to make it to King's Landing. Yes, Tywin would eliminate Stannis' scouts wherever he found them. That's what everybody does.

Quote

All in all, the idea that Tywin's attack on the fords was a feint for Stannis's benefit and that this was some masterstroke on Tywin's part relies way too heavily for my liking on Tywin's successful prediction of three factors unknown to him at the time: firstly the Tyrell alliance, a possibility but not a certainty, secondly Tyrion's successful defence of King's Landing long enough for Tywin to relieve it (no matter Tywin's faith in Tyrion's abilities, this is a massive gamble considering the stakes and Tyrion's command experience), and thirdly the elimination of Stannis's scouts, which he has no real way of anticipating.

Again, the Tyrell alliance was helpful, but not vital to Tywin's victory. Tyrion and Cersei would have kept Tywin well-informed as to exactly how he was preparing to defend the city, including the wildfire. Scouts are eliminated as a matter of course. This is not unusual in the least.

Quote

None of this fits with Tywin's character as we know it. He's not a reckless gambler; he's generally a careful and cautious man. Even if we think the above plan is meritorious (again, I am doubtful) it doesn't look at all like the kind of thing Tywin would do. Robb or Robert or even Jaime, maybe. Far more likely is that what happened is exactly what it looks like: Tywin attempted to head west to defend his lands, as any lord would do, failed to force a crossing easily, and then adjusted his plansy.

All of this fits perfectly with Tywin's character. He's an experienced, knowledgeable and crafty commander, the most experienced and knowledgeable in the field. This is not a gamble, or at least, far less of a gamble than marching west and losing the throne for certain. This was the only course of action for Tywin because the iron throne is far, far more valuable than plunder and a few castles. And the proof is in the text: Tywin could easily have crossed the fork at any ford if he wanted to. This is simply non-debatable. And his victory on the Blackwater was hailed across the board as a master stroke that all but won the war. Nobody says he was a great fool for not chasing Robb into the west and protecting his homeland, which he could have easily done with or without the Tyrell alliance if that was really the most important thing. It wasn't, and the proof is right there in the text.

[Universal Sword Donor]

19 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-but he didnt have time to form up before tywin was ready, the  lannsiter scouts had caught his sneaky lil march. The lannsiter forces were getting armed and ready with the northern van discovered a mile away, its close but no cigar, the  entire camp will be up armed + ready before the northern host can arrive thus marching onwards in fast marching columns makes 0 sense. The chance for a sneak attack has died out so as was common in ancient battles the commander must form up for battle  or retreat  and roose clearly still liked his chances (and/or didnt give a shit about wasting troops). 

They cannot be armed and armored and in position before the northern infantry. 

Northern infantry is a mile away.

Tywin's army is asleep and stretched at least 3 miles of camp.

 

19 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-dude if you have conceded the argument and said  roose could have suprised tywin thus winning the whole fucking war  already then theres not much more to say.

Roose *did* surprise Tywin. He doesn't press forward with that advantage when given the chance.

“Battle assembly. I thought Stark was yet a day’s march away.”

-Tyrion who is part of his father's war council

“The Stark boy stole a march on us,” Bronn said. “He crept down the kingsroad in the night,
and now his host is less than a mile north of here, forming up in battle array.”

If Roose hadn't caught them by surprise the Lannister army would already be in battle array waiting for them as they are occupying a fortified, defensible camp. 

19 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-but it does hint this wasnt a mistake more a calculated gamble, one that almost won the war in a stroke

It would have been a gamble if Roose had actually thrown the dice when he had the advantage. He did not and won in the most costly way possible via a tactical  --  strategic for Robb -- mistake, losing half his army on a failed offensive maneuver.

19 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-armies 'arent always better defending' forces prefer to attack esp out in open battle and esp downhill of they can! This isnt star wars and the men arent jedi..the 'high ground' isnt magic and if they wait for tywins cavalry to rout their own vastly outnumbered cavalry they are dead in this period where the heavy cav dominate the battlefield. 

Armies are always better at defending. Even if it weren't true in real life, it says as much in the books. Anything that breaks up the ranks of massed infantry (eg rushing down a hill, arrow fire, or advancing over uneven ground) makes them exponentially more vulnerable to massed infantry, missile fire, and cavalry. Halidon Hill, Hastings, Agincourt, Cortrai are all evidence of why infantry needs to be in tight, massed formations to defend.

19 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

- its very simple the one place they have advantage is infantry numbers but that wont count for much once their meagre cavalry is driven off. The high ground is diffficult to march up agaisnt in combat , harder still of the enemy is comming down it , even harder again if they have numbers thus more weight and muscle is pushing downhill. If the larger infantry force can rout the smaller one  with this momentum then tywins vastly superior cavalry counts for nowt ..it  can only win the cavalry battle then screen his mens retreat from a loss!!!

It will because they have the maneuverability to cover their flanks and archers to drive the cavalry away. Tywin isnt going to throw heavy cavalry running up a hill into a massed bunch of spikes and spears. He uses his infantry and missile troops to fight infantry and then comes in at the last moment w his cavalry to break them.

19 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

We know this didnt happen as the lannsiter infanty hold up well, also dont forget  somehow on kevans very weakest side ser gegor smashes  pike and shield walls single.handedly!!!!!  and tyrions savages flood the gap heedless of the heavy casulties they are taking! Ser kevan can thus actual push the larger northern block back and then tywin comits his cavary reserve to shatter and rout the enemy...roose however reforms them to prevent an utter slaughter and falls back in good order, no doubt made possible by his own flayed men banner forces and archers forming up but not actualy been mentioned in the thick of the battle.

He smashes one formation with his horse and then the left flank is decimated by the northern infantry. Losing 50% of your army in medieval terms is an absolute slaughter. Glover and Tallhart walked into a trap and then an ambush in retreat and only lost 33% of their men.. 

19 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-the casulties are high yes but so are all the asoiaf battles..thats just grmm and numbers again

Nah most of the battles we see have much lighter casualties. Blackwater men got captured but not slaughtered. Only thing that was slaughter, stannis' navy -- was a dumb mistake made by their admiral. More or less the same as what Roose did

19 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-his plan.was to win the war in one stroke and he was a couple of dilligent scouts (or poorly aimed archer shots at said scouts) from getting that . Then his 2nd goal was to bleed the enemy without hurting his own personal forces (strategicly smart given the expected imbalance in force with vale,riverlands and north vs westerlands) which he achieved, if not for the plot armour of ser gergor saving tywins left hed have done much better too.

He didn't bleed Tywin. He bled his fellow bannerman and undermined Robb Stark's overall war effort by reducing his army strength by half, or a third if you want to include the riverlanders he gained after raising the siege after the GF.