Alternate History: The Wolf Rose Alliance

[Alden Rothack]

What if Ned accepts Littlefingers suggestion and allies with Renly, would this improve matters for Ned and his daughters and secondly would it improve matters for the Stark cause

My opinion is that Ned and Renly are still doomed however the death of Littlefinger and even a short alliance between the Tyrells and the Starks would improve things greatly

[Craving Peaches]

Renly might be able to convince Littlefinger since they appeared to be friendly with each other.

If Ned accepts LF's suggestion then I don't think he dies (then and there) because in this scenario the City Watch is on Ned's side since he's sided with LF by avoiding backing Stannis which LF doesn't want. LF could betray him anyway but I don't see why he would instantly.

However even if the plan worked initially I am not sure if it would continue to work since Ned has different aims to the others. If he still insists on backing Stannis later then I don't think it will last.

The alliance can only last any good length of time if Ned doesn't insist on backing Stannis. Assuming everything actually works, they were to see how Joffrey turned out, and if he was unmanageable get rid of him and put Renly on the Throne instead. Joffrey will most likely be unmanageable so that happens.

Hard to say how things would go though, since so much would be different. Presumable Winterfell is not burned though as no way would still-alive Ned let Theon go. Balon might still rebel anyway though. Tywin would also likely rebel if the incest stuuf was revealed to force Joffrey off the Throne, but I doubt he'd win because, as I have said before, everyone would use the excuse to gang up on him.

[astarkchoice]

Huh?

Ned is offered 2 seperate deals one by lif and one from renly

In littlefingers deal ned takes his position as protector of the realm and hides what he knows of the twincest and makes a peace with cersei  then joffery marries sansa, mycella ro robb and tomnen to arya! He rules as hand for 5-6 years while  joffery matures and stannis may need to be dealt with. If joff is too much of a hassle they reveal the twincest ,execute/exile  joff and place renly on the throne

 

Renly by contrast offers ned like 100+ troops ready  to add to his own to slblitzkrieg the lannister guard, sieze  the kids and utterly checkmate cersei..then later place stannis on the throne (no king renly tryell plot as yet)

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by astarkchoice

[Alden Rothack]

33 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Huh?

Ned is offered 2 seperate deals one by lif and one from renly

In littlefingers deal ned takes his position as protector of the realm and hides what he knows of the twincest and makes a peace with cersei  then joffery marries sansa, mycella ro robb and tomnen to arya! He rules as hand for 5-6 years while  joffery matures and stannis may need to be dealt with. If joff is too much of a hassle they reveal the twincest ,execute/exile  joff and place renly on the throne

the problem is that littlefinger thinks that peace with either cersei or joffrey is an option, its not and neds cannon death is a perfect example of why not

33 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

 

Renly by contrast offers ned like 100+ troops ready  to add to his own to slblitzkrieg the lannister guard, sieze  the kids and utterly checkmate cersei..then later place stannis on the throne (no king renly tryell plot as yet)

 

It only works if both agree to work with Ned, it would take both the Tyrell/Baratheon trrops and the Goldcloaks to hold the city long enough to even get a response from Tywin or Stannis.

there is no version of the events where cersei makes peace with anyone, her reaction to the tyrell alliance makes that clear

[astarkchoice]

2 hours ago, Alden Rothack said:

-the problem is that littlefinger thinks that peace with either cersei or joffrey is an option, its not and neds cannon death is a perfect example of why not

-it only works if both agree to work with Ned, it would take both the Tyrell/Baratheon trrops and the Goldcloaks to hold the city long enough to even get a response from Tywin or Stannis.

there is no version of the events where cersei makes peace with anyone, her reaction to the tyrell alliance makes that clear

-of course it is , the letter making ned protector of the realm  combined with lfs control of the goldcloaks means cersei cant do much back in the immediate term. The fact the deal hides the twinscest  truth and ties ned kids to cerseis ends any need for agression from the former queen too. Her son becomes king with his  new queen sansa. 

 

-the baratheon forces with renly combined with neds guard and storm the lannister guards and take the royal kids hostage ..again once that happens cersei has nothing its over.  She cant risk the kids (she may  even be siezed herself)  and theres time for roberts proclamation about ned to be read publicly.

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

Imagine if Robb had trapped Tywin before the Battle of a black water. I can recall if he had married Jeyne yet, but what if he married Margaery instead

[Otatop1000]

This is perfect timing.  Having just finished reReading GOT I was just pondering Eddard’s options. There was third option for him; take his ship with the girls and as many of his guards as he can on the ship he had readied before the showdown at the brothel, and head to Dragonstone, as he had planned though now he has Robert’s last will and testament.  He would have been present at the battle of the Blackwater completely changing the outcome of that battle.  He just needed to play the longer game.  
 

But the way it happens is actually kind of perfect.  The honorable Ned couldn’t see that far into the Game.  He really wasn’t made to play the Game of Thrones.  Sadly.

 

[SeanF]

I doubt if there was any good option for Ned, other than getting out of Dodge. Both Renly and Stannis would have declared the three children as bastards, and would have had them executed with their parents.

Ned would be consumed with guilt over it.

Cersei would have chafed under LF’s proposal (assuming LF was being sincere to Ned) and war would have come eventually.

[SilverGhost]

Ned's only option was to get out of King's Landing. He was injured, in hostile territory, and his two daughters were both potential hostages if his play for Regent went sideways. 

It's one of the few things in the series that's always bothered me. While Ned might trust Robert he should remember from his father/brother that justice and honor were in short supply in the Red Keep. Different King but the same corrupt system. Everyone kept trying to convince him to take a different option - basically stating to his face where that Ned's course was not going to benefit them. Still he trusts that those who agreed to assist him will do so even when it's not in their best interest to follow Ned. He's got a Northerner's cynical view of the Red Keep and enough political sense to understand most of his limitations. 

Ned's not an idiot but while he's always thinking or talking about how different he is from these people - he never actually applies that knowledge to his calculations and think that untrustworthy people might be untrustworthy. 

[Otatop1000]

4 hours ago, Lady Stonehearts Simp said:

Imagine if Robb had trapped Tywin before the Battle of a black water. I can recall if he had married Jeyne yet, but what if he married Margaery instead

if I remember correctly the battle that Edmure is so proud of where he “bested Tywin” and sent him back towards Kings Landing, happens while Robb is away in the west; getting injured and married.  I double checked the wiki and I think this is the way of it.  So Margaery still gets Joff/Tommen.

Mayhaps, if Tywin’s host crosses the river and does get pulled into the Young Wolf’s trap.  Stannis takes the Iron Throne and Robb no longer needs the Freys, no Red Wedding.  So he still can be an oath breaker and live.  But this is ASOIAF nobody gets a happy ending.

[SilverGhost]

2 minutes ago, Otatop1000 said:

Mayhaps, if Tywin’s host crosses the river and does get pulled into the Young Wolf’s trap.  Stannis takes the Iron Throne and Robb no longer needs the Freys, no Red Wedding.  So he still can be an oath breaker and live.  But this is ASOIAF nobody gets a happy ending.

And if Stannis wins at the Blackwater without the Lannister/Tyrell alliance and takes KL, Robb is still a rebel to Stannis, the Tyrell's and large amount of their bannermen are back in the Reach since not all swore to Stannis after Renly's death, and Myrcella's in Dorne. The Ironborn are in revolt and still control the main entrance way to the North from the Neck and Winterfell. 

It's a real big bunch of "what if's" at that point. 

[astarkchoice]

8 hours ago, Otatop1000 said:

This is perfect timing.  Having just finished reReading GOT I was just pondering Eddard’s options. There was third option for him; take his ship with the girls and as many of his guards as he can on the ship he had readied before the showdown at the brothel, and head to Dragonstone, as he had planned though now he has Robert’s last will and testament.  He would have been present at the battle of the Blackwater completely changing the outcome of that battle.  He just needed to play the longer game.  
 

But the way it happens is actually kind of perfect.  The honorable Ned couldn’t see that far into the Game.  He really wasn’t made to play the Game of Thrones.  Sadly.

 

If that happens there is no blackwater though. More likely if he leaves minus the royal kids he goes with renlys retinue added to his own as its safer. Either way he goes to stannis and renly sides with him.

The stormlords march united  on kl and the tullys block tywin trying to reinforce (and in case tywin outsmarts and bodies edmure again this time itl be ned leading the northern forces south so the northern forces will probably arrive to intercept any attempt to relieve KL.

[Alden Rothack]

9 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

-of course it is , the letter making ned protector of the realm  combined with lfs control of the goldcloaks means cersei cant do much back in the immediate term. The fact the deal hides the twinscest  truth and ties ned kids to cerseis ends any need for agression from the former queen too. Her son becomes king with his  new queen sansa. 

immediate term is right, cersei and tywin will not accept anyone but them controlling members of their family, tywins response to tyrions arrest makes that clear and bear in mind that tywin believed the arrest had the backing of the kings hand.

9 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

 

-the baratheon forces with renly combined with neds guard and storm the lannister guards and take the royal kids hostage ..again once that happens cersei has nothing its over.  She cant risk the kids (she may  even be siezed herself)  and theres time for roberts proclamation about ned to be read publicly.

cersei will immediately start plotting the deaths of everyone she thinks might be involved

the only people roberts proclamation might sway would be the crownlanders

8 hours ago, Lady Stonehearts Simp said:

Imagine if Robb had trapped Tywin before the Battle of a black water. I can recall if he had married Jeyne yet, but what if he married Margaery instead

A lot would have to happen before the Tyrells would agree to that and it would be difficult given that the two realms don't share borders.

 

8 hours ago, Otatop1000 said:

This is perfect timing.  Having just finished reReading GOT I was just pondering Eddard’s options. There was third option for him; take his ship with the girls and as many of his guards as he can on the ship he had readied before the showdown at the brothel, and head to Dragonstone, as he had planned though now he has Robert’s last will and testament.  He would have been present at the battle of the Blackwater completely changing the outcome of that battle.  He just needed to play the longer game.  
 

But the way it happens is actually kind of perfect.  The honorable Ned couldn’t see that far into the Game.  He really wasn’t made to play the Game of Thrones.  Sadly.

 

Roberts will might sway the rest of the crownlanders and some of the stormlanders but thats it, the north was already going to support Stannis and Ned could have got the Vale one way or the other.

Ned would advise Stannis to put Davos in charge of a small group of ships to recon the harbour as Davos himself thinks they should.

[Alden Rothack]

4 hours ago, SilverGhost said:

Ned's only option was to get out of King's Landing. He was injured, in hostile territory, and his two daughters were both potential hostages if his play for Regent went sideways. 

It's one of the few things in the series that's always bothered me. While Ned might trust Robert he should remember from his father/brother that justice and honor were in short supply in the Red Keep. Different King but the same corrupt system. Everyone kept trying to convince him to take a different option - basically stating to his face where that Ned's course was not going to benefit them. Still he trusts that those who agreed to assist him will do so even when it's not in their best interest to follow Ned. He's got a Northerner's cynical view of the Red Keep and enough political sense to understand most of his limitations. 

Ned's not an idiot but while he's always thinking or talking about how different he is from these people - he never actually applies that knowledge to his calculations and think that untrustworthy people might be untrustworthy. 

This

Ned should have started planning to either escape with his daughters or bring reiable forces to Kingslanding no later than the confrontation at Castle Darry.

[Alden Rothack]

4 hours ago, Otatop1000 said:

if I remember correctly the battle that Edmure is so proud of where he “bested Tywin” and sent him back towards Kings Landing, happens while Robb is away in the west; getting injured and married.  I double checked the wiki and I think this is the way of it.  So Margaery still gets Joff/Tommen.

Mayhaps, if Tywin’s host crosses the river and does get pulled into the Young Wolf’s trap.  Stannis takes the Iron Throne and Robb no longer needs the Freys, no Red Wedding.  So he still can be an oath breaker and live.  But this is ASOIAF nobody gets a happy ending.

While Roose would still betray him somehow because Ramseys actions mean he must either kill Robb or kill Ramsey the Freys will not as long Stannis might prevail against the Lannisters and the Tyrells or even Tyrells and Martels.

[astarkchoice]

1 minute ago, Alden Rothack said:

-immediate term is right, cersei and tywin will not accept anyone but them controlling members of their family, tywins response to tyrions arrest makes that clear and bear in mind that tywin believed the arrest had the backing of the kings hand.

cersei will immediately start plotting the deaths of everyone she thinks might be involved

-the only people roberts proclamation might sway would be the crownlanders

 

 

 

-tywin would be overjoyed in that scenario  , he and kevan may even remove cersei from kl to stop her nessing shit up!  The deal seals them into a solid  royal dynasty with stark/tullys backed for now by the vale too.  It also puts joffery under ned which tywin probably understands is needed to sort the boy out. Ned will also dismiss jamie giving tywin back his heir.

 

-once his proclaimation is known and verifisd by honerable.men like selmy  its law. and this time cersi wont have the force on hand to overrule/ignore if. Renly standing with him means the stormlords are backimg this and stannis too.

[astarkchoice]

12 minutes ago, Alden Rothack said:

While Roose would still betray him somehow because Ramseys actions mean he must either kill Robb or kill Ramsey the Freys will not as long Stannis might prevail against the Lannisters and the Tyrells or even Tyrells and Martels.

Ramsays actions though seem to  come from the red weddings plotting. The previous stuff with lady hornwood (just his ownsick  solution to the ongoing manderly vs bolton clashes for her land)  .can be forgiven if he joins the stark loyalists and retakes winterfell a d then moat catlin etc once

Ince 'reek' escapes theon at winterfell and ramsay goes to the dresdfort its clear hes ordered to betray starks but to spare the frey boys there

[Alden Rothack]

5 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

-tywin would be overjoyed in that scenario  , he and kevan may even remove cersei from kl to stop her nessing shit up!  The deal seals them into a solid  royal dynasty with stark/tullys backed for now by the vale too.  It also puts joffery under ned which tywin probably understands is needed to sort the boy out. Ned will also dismiss jamie giving tywin back his heir.

Tywin isn't going to accept anyone but another lannister 'sorting' Joffrey out

5 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

 

-once his proclaimation is known and verifisd by honerable.men like selmy  its law. and this time cersi wont have the force on hand to overrule/ignore if. Renly standing with him means the stormlords are backimg this and stannis too.

Not immediately no but cersei isn't particularly smart or wise

[Alden Rothack]

3 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Ramsays actions though seem to  come from the red weddings plotting. The previous stuff with lady hornwood (just his ownsick  solution to the ongoing manderly vs bolton clashes for her land)  .can be forgiven if he joins the stark loyalists and retakes winterfell a d then moat catlin etc once

Ince 'reek' escapes theon at winterfell and ramsay goes to the dresdfort its clear hes ordered to betray starks but to spare the frey boys there

No they can't, he kidnapped and murdered a lady of a great house, ramsey has been sentenced to death and the moment roose admits that he knows ramsey is alive his head is going to be next to go on a spike.

Roose can save his own neck if he has ramsey killed and withdraws from the Hornwood lands if his forces have retaken winterfell and moatlin particularly if he convinces the ironborn to return the hostages but ramsey's fate is sealled, Rob won't risk the Manderleys rebelling for the risk of a murderer.

[Nevets]

Tywin is not going to tolerate Cersei being sidelined.  Littlefinger isn't going to tolerate Stannis being named King, and Stannis won't accept anything less.  

Stannis and Tywin are already gathering troops.  Stannis will certainly reveal the incest, which would force Ned to either take action or ignore it.  If he ignores it, it's going to be difficult to use later, if Joffrey gets out of hand.

Ned would probably be forced to side with either Tywin or Stannis.  Neither is good, and fighting will break out.  

As for Sansa and Arya, Ned made plans to get them out.  The problem was, events overtook his plans and forced action before he was ready.