What is compelling about having Daenerys be someone other than the daughter of Aerys and Rhaella?

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

If GRRM came up with the idea that lemon trees can't grow in Braavos, but are from Dorne, only in AFFC, that puts a big hole in the theory that Daenerys is a changeling.  Because the apparent fact of the House with the Red Door being in Dorne is the entire basis of the theory.  But he's had main character arcs established from the start, and there are no hints of anything unusual in the early books. 

If you look at my 36 point list above, you will find many arguable clues drawn from AGOT.   

Mentioned are fragrant oil smells, connected both to the house with the red door, and with the Tower of Joy.  And with King Robert's mention or roses growing in the south.

Not on my list, but nonetheless from AGOT, is the rotten-orange food fight, which shows that citrus does not grow as far north as the Vale and have to be imported.  Also in AGOT is King Robert's glowing description of the sort of fruits that grow in the south.  He omits to mention lemons.  But that does not change the fact that lemons do grow in the South. 

And there was a lemon tree outside Dany's window.  And a smell or fragrant oils (just like the Tower of Joy).  All from Book 1.

[Gilbert Green]

14 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

These are some intriguing points, however I feel like some of them have a simpler explanation than Daenerys not being who she thinks she is. Do you mind if I respond point by point?

Thank you. 

In all honesty, I am not looking forward to a point-by-point rebuttal.  Which is entirely my problem and not yours.  What I anticipate, perhaps unfairly, is constant reiterations of "That does not necessarily mean..." and "That does not prove...".  Can we start by taking for granted that it is only a theory, and none of these points necessarily prove anything, especially in isolation?

But again, it's not up to me.  And it is only fair that 36 points get 36 rebuttals. 

[Gilbert Green]

12 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

Melony as someone other than Melisandre ... on reading the passage in context, it seems more likely to just be Mel, owing to the fact she cries when faced with the memory. But not worth dismissing completely, as a thematic clue if nothing else. 

I don't necessarily disagree with this counterpoint at all.  When you read the passage, it does seem that Melisandre is referring to herself.   And Mel[isandre] / Mel[ony] is something of a coincidence.  But that conclusion is hard to nail down in a hard literal sense.

The tears could be tears of sympathy.  Perhaps Melisandre was sold at one time.  But that might not mean that she is Melony.

Melisandre does speak the common tongue with a thick eastern accent, though.  And Melony is a Westerosi name.  Had she originally been a native, would her accent really be that thick?  It is possible, I suppose.

[Corvo the Crow]

10 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

Dany is a huge central character. And George has likely used the unreliable memory technique outlined above with her, to some extent, as this thread has already discussed. So it's more unlikely that he would make a fuckup regarding her past, even if he decided early on to move her origin from Tyrosh to Braavos. He surely would have factored that in as one of the 'things that you have to figure out'. It's a far cry from the issue of 'forgetting a horse's gender' or 'people's eye colour'. 

Books are filled with stuff that are on par or worse. Seasons play a huge role and guess what, Tyrion in the south more winters than an old ranger who lived most of his life in the Watch. You can’t pass it off as unreliable narrator either because Tyrion tells this at a dining table full of officers of the Watch.

[Gilbert Green]

2 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Books are filled with stuff that are on par or worse. Seasons play a huge role and guess what, Tyrion in the south more winters than an old ranger who lived most of his life in the Watch. You can’t pass it off as unreliable narrator either because Tyrion tells this at a dining table full of officers of the Watch.

Who is the ranger who has seen fewer winters than Tyrion?  I'm not sure I get the reference.

Mormont has just called Tyrion a young man.  Tyrion, not wanting to admit how young he is, gets defensive, evasive, and non-committal.  Claims he has seen 8 winters, and then covers himself by saying "I misremember".  My guess he has only lived through 5 winters.  That includes the winter he was born into that he can't remember, and double-counts the winter of the false spring.

[Corvo the Crow]

32 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Who is the ranger who has seen fewer winters than Tyrion?  I'm not sure I get the reference.

Mormont has just called Tyrion a young man.  Tyrion, not wanting to admit how young he is, gets defensive, evasive, and non-committal.  Claims he has seen 8 winters, and then covers himself by saying "I misremember".  My guess he has only lived through 5 winters.  That includes the winter he was born into that he can't remember, and double-counts the winter of the false spring.

 

Quote

"It was the cold," Gared said with iron certainty. "I saw men freeze last winter, and the one before, when I was half a boy. 

 

[Gilbert Green]

19 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I don't think this is what is going on here. I think the prophesy itself is questionable, but will be fulfilled.

I agree that the prophesy will be fulfilled, in some ways.

TPTWP may end up being an evil Azhor Ahai type figure, who helps destroy the world under the justification of trying to save the world.  It would be perfectly fitting if such a monster arose from Jaehaerys' evil acts.

While I'm not ruling out such a figure, I believe that in the end there will be also be a good figure who is TPTWP, who really does save the world.  And I do NOT think he will be the result direct union of the forced incestuous marriage of Aerys and Rhaella.

But he could unite the lines indirectly.  For instance Rhaegar, the son of Rhaella and Bonifer, could unite with Elia, the daughter of Aerys and the Princess of Dorne, and give birth to Aegon, TPTWP.  And Aegon, TPTWP will save the world, with the help of his two siblings.

20 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I don't think dragons are good. I think they, like nuclear weapons, are terrible, destructive, but also sometimes the only option when some other equally potent weapon is in the hands of someone who is intensely evil and does not value life.

Dragons, generally, are monsters.  I would go even further than you and guess that they are not even useful for fighting zombie hordes.  What they are good for, generally, is burning crops, blowing up cities, devouring maidens, and otherwise making it impossible for humans to survive in the Long Night.  Dragons and ice wights are on the same team, more or less.  They are two minions of the Many-Faced God of Death.

I'm not ruling out exceptions.  Dragons who play a role for good. 

I don't think Drogon is one of those exceptions.  That boy is bad news, and must be slain.  I think Dany's salvation depends on her ultimately ditching Drogon.  Three mounts must she ride

 

[Gilbert Green]

@Corvo the Crow, perhaps anyone under 40 is "half a boy" from the perspective of one over 50.

[Corvo the Crow]

5 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

@Corvo the Crow, perhaps anyone under 40 is "half a boy" from the perspective of one over 50.

Dude the point there is Gared saw 2 winters. JUST 2! When Tyrion claims several times that despite being much younger and living further south.

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[Gilbert Green]

4 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Dude the point there is Gared saw 2 winters. JUST 2! When Tyrion claims several times that despite being much younger and living further south.

Gared does not say he has only seen two winters.  He says he saw men freeze to death last winter.  And he saw men freeze to death the winter before.

[Corvo the Crow]

10 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Gared does not say he has only seen two winters.  He says he saw men freeze to death last winter.  And he saw men freeze to death the winter before.

Gared is 50ish and has been at the wall for 40 years or so. He was half a boy during the winter before the last. Just how many winters do you think he has seen? 

Edited July 10, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[Corvo the Crow]

@Gilbert Green btw you still haven’t answered what could Ned possibly have promised to Lyanna about Daenerys who was born whatever months after the sack as we’ve explicitly been told by GRRM and what use is a Targaryen looking Westerosi  when Targs have nothing speacial in their looks when compared to other Valyrians and Dany has the accent of a free city.

[Gilbert Green]

1 minute ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Gared is 50ish and has been at the wall for 40 years or so. He was half a boy when during the winter before the last. Just how many winters do you think he has seen? 

Two winters in which he saw people freeze to death, and other winters in which he did not see people freeze to death.

Last winter would have been 10, 11, or 12 years ago.  The winter before that was plausibly the winter of the false spring, up to 18 years ago.  52 minus 18 equals 35.  Definitely "half a boy" You whippersnappers just don't understand.

[Corvo the Crow]

15 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

52 minus 18 equals 35.  Definitely "half a boy" You whippersnappers just don't understand.

Half a boy is used several times and not all of them are about the persons age but the persons who are “half a boy” due to their age are Jon, Loras and Young Griff, all below 20.

[Gilbert Green]

16 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Just to shoot down a couple before taking a nap

 GRRM himself has said Dany was born after Jon and some months after the sack of KL so what promise that he was not able to uphold that Ned can even give to Lyanna about the as of yet unborn Dany?

Hypothesis.  Ned found two babies at the ToJ, the newborn Dany, and Jon who was born roughly 10 months earlier.  Lyanna made him promise regarding both of them.

Dany was born at the Tower of Joy incident.  Therefore, her real nameday is a few months earlier than her official nameday.  Dany is a few months older than she thinks she is.

Jon Snow is officially the son of Wylla.  But again, there has been a substitution, and Wylla has been given another child.  Jon's real nameday is a few months earlier than the birthday of Wylla's real baby.  Again, Jon is some months older than he thinks he is.

GRRM says in an SSM that Jon is certainly not as much as year older than Dany, but probably closer to 8 or 9 months older than Dany.  It is unclear if he is referring to their real namedays or their official namedays, but the statement is fuzzy enough so that it probably does not matter.

My guess is Jon is 8 or 9 months older than Dany in terms of their official namedays, but 10 months older in terms of their real namedays, but certainly not as much as a year older than Dany.  I think this is a reasonable fit with GRRM's words. 

I use the following hypothetical dates, which are of course flexible and subject to adjustment:

283-03-15  --  Jon's actual birthday at the ToJ

283-08-07  -- Birth of Wylla's child who later dies; Jon will assume its identity.

283-08-15   -- Sack of KL

284-01-14   -- ToJ Incident.  Birth of Rhaegar's daughter, who we call Dany

284-05-10  --  Birth of Rhaella's daughter, the original Dany.

I have borrowed most of these dates, with slight adjustments, from the following source, which, again, is merely a hypothesis

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Gilbert Green]

17 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Why the hell would Illyrio need to procure "a Targaryen looking girl from Westeros" when Targaryens just look like any other Valyrian and bringing one from Westeros has no benefits at all?

He didn't.  He just showed up at the seaport one day, and a Tyroshi merchant (or whoever) offered him some goods.  Or maybe she was picked up by one of his agents in Tyrosh.  I don't think he sends special orders to Bear Island for Westerosi ex-poachers either.  He's at the center of a corrupt web.  Slavers and pirates bring their goods to him.  And they don't necessarily say where they got those goods either.

Her already speaking Westerosi would be a plus, since the real Rhaella's daughter, had she lived, would have been expected to be raised to know that language.  Why train a Valyrian-featured slave girl to speak Westerosi, when one who already speaks it has already fallen into your hands?

After being purchased, the small girl was able to tell something of her history, but nothing that would tell Illyrio that she was Rhaegar's daughter.  You don't tell that kind of secret to a small child, while babykiller Robert still sits on the Iron Throne.  But she would be able to say that she had been raised by a guy named Willam in a big stone house, and that he called her "little princess".  And Illyrio might have thought "You know, I can work with that."

Her coloring is pretty rare, considering how Illyrio glows over it, as he tries to convince Viserys that she can pass as a Targaryen.

Edited July 10, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[SaffronLady]

2 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Dude the point there is Gared saw 2 winters. JUST 2! When Tyrion claims several times that despite being much younger and living further south.

This could be easily waved away by saying Gared and Tyrion have double standards for winter.

[SaffronLady]

2 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Dragons, generally, are monsters.  I would go even further than you and guess that they are not even useful for fighting zombie hordes.  What they are good for, generally, is burning crops, blowing up cities, devouring maidens, and otherwise making it impossible for humans to survive in the Long Night.  Dragons and ice wights are on the same team, more or less.  They are two minions of the Many-Faced God of Death.

While the last sentence is an interesting take, I'd say thematically speaking ASOIAF dragons, being fire elementals, should be effective against the Others, who are ice elementals. Other dragon-related stuff was confirmed or rumored to work, after all: dragonglass, dragonsteel, etc. No reason why the dragons themselves should not work.

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Half a boy is used several times and not all of them are about the persons age but the persons who are “half a boy” due to their age are Jon, Loras and Young Griff, all below 20.

And LF, who is about 30 IRRC.  But I guess you will say that was not referring to his age.

Well then, I guess Gared was not referring to his age.  He was referring to those happy days of relative innocence, before he had seen men freeze to death in winter.  Or maybe he is just suffering brain farts caused by brain freeze and premature senility.

[Sandy Clegg]

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Books are filled with stuff that are on par or worse. Seasons play a huge role and guess what, Tyrion in the south more winters than an old ranger who lived most of his life in the Watch. You can’t pass it off as unreliable narrator either because Tyrion tells this at a dining table full of officers of the Watch.

Good point. Maybe this is an example of what George means by us having to "work things out" though? It made me do a mini dive into the seasonal mechanics, which I haven't done in a while. It seems that George likes to keep the exact length of seasons vague, with Maesters using astronomical means to calculate years and 'minor summers/winters' being more subjective interpretations depending on where in Westeros you live. 

Quote

"You are a young man, Tyrion," Mormont said. "How many winters have you seen?"

He shrugged. "Eight, nine. I misremember."

"And all of them short."

"As you say, my lord." He had been born in the dead of winter, a terrible cruel one that the maesters said had lasted near three years, but Tyrion's earliest memories were of spring.

Let's set aside the fact that Tyrion is reliably flippant, and everything we know of him tells us that exaggerating the number of winters he has seen - just to wind up Watchmen at the Wall in a boastful manner - would be entirely in keeping with his character. Seeing 8-9 winters in his 25 years lifespan is not impossible. Even if the last ten were from the Long Summer. But as Mormont responds: "all of them short". A derisive comment, as if to say 'not really winters at all then, lad.'

So the discrepancy between Gared's comment and Tyrion's really just throws these two views of 'what is winter' into relief. It's likely that, living at the Wall, Watchmen don't really consider the short winters as real winters at all. And Gared, as a hardened crow, is only bothering to recall what he considers 'true' winters -  in conversation, remember, with Ser Weymar. Like Tyrion, he's another 'Southron lord' who (from Gared's point of view) wouldn't know what true winter was if it bit him on the arse.

So it's another example of how George builds his world's ambiguity with regards to the seasons. Tyrion is an educated southern lord and  'knows' when winters occur, even when they don't feel like one. He learned from a maester and has an objective view of such things. The Watchmen, on the other hand .... they stick their heads outside and decide if it's 'Winter' on whether or not their ears fall off. They 'feel' winter rather than relying on star charts or calendars. It's another aspect of the world-building, highlighting the seasonal dicrepancies, Tyrions flippancy and the Nights Watchmen's stoicism all in one interaction.